The Dunning Kruger Effect

On April 19th 1995 McArthur Wheeler robbed a  bank with his face glazed with lemon juice, believing the juice would make his face  invisible to the surveillance cameras. He thought so because lemon juice works  as invisible ink on a piece of paper. Police broadcasted the security camera  footage on the local 11 o'clock news, and just after midnight Arthur was arrested. 

Incredulously he said "But I wore the juice! " Baffled by this reasoning,  David Dunning and Justin Kruger, two Psychologists, studied MrWheeler and  others like him . They came to the conclusion that people with low ability at a task tend  to, paradoxically, overestimate themselves.

This cognitive bias is known  as The Dunning–Kruger effect. Let’s look at this graphically plotting one’s  confidence in your ability against one’s actual knowledge in a field. As we learn something new,  we are often highly confident because we know so little that as soon as we do know a tiny bit, we  think we know it all.

Those who stop learning here maintain a false sense of mastery. Those  who continue learning, realize things are more complex and often lose motivation. And  the more they increase their knowledge the lower their confidence becomes.

Many stop at  this stage, thinking they’ve learned nothing. Only if we keep going can we regain confidence  while getting better. And at the end, we will be full of knowledge and almost as confident  in our ability as right after we started.

In other words, if a simpleton , a good student  and a wise teacher were to have a public debate, this is how things could go down. The simpleton  knows just a little bit, but is very confident and voices his opinions loud and without hesitations.  The student knows more, but doesn’t realize it because she lacks confidence.

She keeps quiet. The  teacher is confident, but understands how complex things really are, hence voices his opinions with  reservations. In the end, the simpleton wins the popular vote, because he is so confident about  being right and people tend to trust certainty.

Research from North America, Europe and  Japan suggests that culture plays a big role. From assessments of one's own  ability to drive we know that 93% of Americans think they are better  drivers than average, while “only '' 69% of Swedish think so. In Japan on the other  hand, people, in general, tend to underestimate their abilities as a strategy to see their  underachievement as an opportunity to improve.

Setting out on a journey of learning  can be a daunting experience. What starts off as a leisurely stroll  soon changes to an intense battle of willpower between you and an intimidating  amount of knowledge. Do not give up.

The longer you fight, the more power  you gain, up until the point you win. And in the end, if you persevere, you  may be elevated to the ranks of Socrates, who, over 2000 years ago,  left us with a quote of wisdom “I know that I am intelligent,  because I know that I know nothing. ” sprouts videos are published under the  creative commons license that means our videos are free and anyone can download edit and  play them for personal use and public schools governments and non-profit organizations can  also use them for training online courses or designing new curriculums to help us stay  independent and support our work you can join our patrons and contribute just visit patreon.