The Man Who Predicted AGI Decades Ago w/ Ray Kurzweil | EP #125

2029 for AGI is conservative people present PRS that a will present and they assume that all we have is the things that we can do today to to to modify it without realizing that that's also going to expand do you see uh significant job loss in 2025 26 27 80% of people uh worked in food production uh 200 years ago today there 2% so we've lost all those jobs and yet we have actually more people working what are we likely to see in the next uh 1 to 3 years I mean what's really exciting to

[Music] me hi everybody Peter dadis here welcome to moonshots this is a special episode for me personally I have my mentor my business partner one of the greatest thinkers in AI joining me Ray kerswell he's a computer scientist an inventor and a futurist he's best known for his predictions and Artificial Intelligence being the author of The Singularity is near and the singularity is nearer his predictions have had an 86% accuracy rate in this episode we're going to be talking about what his predictions are for 2025 2026 we'll talk about longevity Escape philosopy we'll talk about

jobs and job loss we'll talk about digital superintelligence we'll talk about a lot of the things that if you're interested in AI you're going to want to hear his thoughts and his answers last year I had Ry on stage with me in abundance 360 uh he is one of the co-founders of abundance 360 I had him there along with Jeffrey Hinton who just got the Nobel Prize and Elon Musk uh who said you know Ray is one of the greatest thinkers maybe a little bit conservative was what Elon said about Ray you know the abundance

360 membership and Summit is for me the program where I bring the greatest thinkers in the world together to talk about what happened in the last year and where things are going in the next two to three years so you can sort of predict where the future is going you know it's a program that's not for everybody uh the folks 500 members in the abundance 360 program are running 10 million to 10 billion companies I've reserved five seats for listeners of my moonshots podcast this year if that's you if you're interested please click on the

link below or go to abundance 360.com to apply it's one of the most extraordinary programs and I'm so excited I've committed to running abundance 360 for 25 years we're at year 13 and it's getting harder and harder to see where things are going next all right enough about that let's jump into this podcast and if you love conversations like this like we're about to have with Ry Please Subscribe all right now the most amazing thinker on the field of AI Ray as well by the way if you're enjoying these episodes each week I write two

blogs to update you on the most important Tech Trends I personally write these emails and cover topics like AI Bitcoin humanoid Robotics and much more and then I share my personal thoughts on them it's called datadriven optimism and you can find a link to the blog below hey Ray good to see you my friend my pleasure always good to see you yeah buddy uh you know I I count you as my mentor co-founder uh you know and just partner in helping create a vision for Humanity of a exponential and a positive future well H how

long has it been since we've known each other yeah I'm trying to remember that I think Martin rothblat introduced us um it's it's got to be shortly after the Ansari X prize was won so I'm thinking it's about 20 years now okay you know yeah it's interesting yeah it's it's it's amazing it still look the same so and we still have the same mindset which is the most important you know uh except it's actually coming true so it it is you know for there's a few interesting facts people should know you know you and I

co-founded Singularity University and abundance 360 um I got you your first job I don't think people know that uh which is kind of kind of funny um uh at Google you mean yeah I mean you had written this book how to make a mind and then you and then you invited me to help you to join your and we introduced that to Larry pagee yeah you so you I I came I joined your board in that company and you were saying let's raise I think we were trying to raise 50 million or something like that

and uh you had not met Larry at that point and I said listen Larry's become a friend on my board at X prise I can I'm happily to introduce you you and so I reached out to Larry and he said yeah I'd love to Ray to to meet Ray and we I remember the meeting I remember the conference room so you and I walk in there and you you launch into presenting the company what was the company called back then you remember patterns yeah patterns Inc that's right yeah uh and you remember and and why

don't you recount what happened when you started presenting patterns to to Larry well I thought it might be useful if he made a venture investment in it and he said I don't want to make a venture investment that's ridiculous I said okay well everybody you approach is going to be interested he said I'll just buy the company yeah yeah I remember him saying we have so much compute and so much data here why would you want to do patterns Inc outside of the company right and uh I said okay but we've just started two weeks

ago we haven't really done anything and he said well is it worth anything I said well yeah I wouldn't asked you to invest if it wasn't worth anything he said okay so I'll buy it and yeah and then then then you said well how would you how would you value it and then I remember him saying we can value anything right that's right yeah it was it was fun and that's how you got your first job that's right so what's your yeah you are what's your title at Google these days principal uh research AI Visionary

okay that's good I like that so let's jump in um I'm I'm thrilled to be having this conversation and and this podcast could last a good 48 hours straight on all the subjects we have to to chat about but we'll keep it rather succinct and brief and I want to jump in with a question I've actually had for a bit you know you've talked about the singularity being in the year 2045 and you've spoken about reaching human level AI by 2029 and I'm trying to understand if we've got human level AI by 2029 by 20

30 and 31 and 35 it doesn't mean though typical of a human it means typical of all humans yes so any human that can do anything it'll be comparable to that and better than that so why aren't we reaching the singularity in it plays uh go it can play go better than than any human and and ET Center for every single thing that humans can do I I I buy that but my question is why is the singularity 44 years out if we're doubling we've got 10 doublings I mean in AI the power of AI

is doubling not once every two years but in some instances it's doubling every few months 20 years away 2045 is almost 21 years from but why is it so far out it it seems like if I don't think it's you're able to we're able to predict anything by 2035 and the speed is going to be you know just extraordinary by then well the singularity is a metaphor uh and it it's something that we can't really say about like if information goes into a a physic Singularity uh we can't actually access it it's stuck in there

and things can happen in there but we can't actually tell what's going on so we're actually borrowing this metaphor from physics to talk about this historical Singularity um and so 2030s uh will have things that go beyond what humans can do uh and it will seem uh quite remarkable but we have humans today so having more humans uh it amplifies us but it's it's not the same thing as Singularity The Singularity is when we can ourselves we're going to merge with AI so that's already a difference than other people people think AI is over here

we're over here there's a difference we're actually going to merge the two together uh and we're going to become uh we're going to be able to do everything that AI can do ourselves right now if we use a language model it doesn't seem like it's ourselves it seems like it's somebody else uh and we're going to do that um with things like the future version of neuralink sure right now which allows you to ACC actually access your own uh brain um and so neuralink for example it's implemented in two paralyze patients they can control a

computer with their brain uh they can actually as good as people can access their own computer but accessing your own computer isn't like accessing your own mind like if you want if I want to tell you something and you look it up on your computer it takes you I don't know 5 Seconds 10 seconds it doesn't just like pop up instantly yeah so we're going to be able to do that in the 2030s we're going to have Nano robots that are much more expansive than neur link or synchron today uh and by 2045 we're going

to expand our own intelligence a millionfold that's so remarkable that we can't really say what it's what it will be like uh and that's why we're using this metaphor do you believe we're going to have an intelligence explosion there's been a lot of conversation about recursive Ai self-programming and self-improving that will lead to a hard takeoff with uh an extraordinary acceleration of computational right capacity um no uh but it's going to be exponential and exponential seems very fast um but their positions once it gets established it boom it like interacts in a fraction of a

second and we get the singularity miners we're going to go exponentially towards that but exponentially gets to be faster and faster uh so it seems similar but it's actually um on the slow School of the singularity we're going to get there exponentially one of the single greatest predictors of how long you'll live and your metabolic health is your blood glucose levels I am constantly measuring my blood glucose day and night using the levels app uh this continuous glucose monitor CGM is the means by which I know what Spike my blood glucose what causes me to

spike my insulin so for example I don't eat bread but if I do I know that if I dip it in olive oil it blunts the glycemic response so is a banana going to spike you probably but do you know for yourself or dark chocolate the way you find out is by using this type of Technology it's available and it's one of the most important things for those who want to extend their health span now you can get two extra months on your annual levels membership by going to levels. link back/ Peter I hope you

do it's an extraordinary experience to know what's truly going on inside your body all right let's go back to our episode you know it's interesting last year I had yourself on stage with me at the abundance Summit which was awesome uh Jeffrey Hinton was with us Elon Musk was with us and I loved that you know Elon said yes Rey is preent and he's conservative so I think it's the first time you're being called conservative about your AGI estimates well uh G uh AGI is going to be do you still believe it's 2029 yes and

he's actually saying next year yeah so I'm conservative compared to him uh I think saying by the end of of the of this decade is conservative it could happen faster I see no reason to increase my estimate I said 2029 in 1999 yeah 30 years uh and people like Jeffrey Hinton was there uh Stanford actually organized a conference several hundred people came uh and they consensus was uh 80% thought it would be 100 years including Jeffrey Hinton and he saying that he was wrong that's actually more like 30 years like like what Kell is saying

in in 1999 but no one was saying 30 years at that time yeah no it's uh you're and for those who don't know Ray's uh predictive accuracy has been outstanding if you go and you Google uh there are many cases in which all of your books are documented about when you predict something is going to happen and with then you know giving a leniency of like 12 to 24 months I think your accuracy rate is at 86% so not too bad not too bad at all you know the other thing that happened at that Summit

last year at the abundance Summit and I hope we'll have Elon and you back next year is that I mean that happened a year ago and it seems like in ancient history yeah it is ancient history uh but one of the things that much has happened in the last year it's just remarkable it it and it's going to keep happening faster and faster each year so 2029 for AGI is uh conservative um and on on the predictive you know 12 to 24 months accurate so uh one of the comments made by both Elon and Jeffrey

Hinton and congrats to him for the Nobel Prize was that 80% chance AI is going to turn out great for Humanity 20% chance we're screwed um I'm I'm curious you know whether what your comments are about say that say that again so so Elon and and Jeffrey Hinton said that they're looking forward um on how AI will impact Humanity it's 80% probability that humanity is going to Survive and Thrive and AI is going to support us and there's a 20% chance that AI is going to be uh you know disruptive to humanity and so I'm

curious you know if you feel that's correct and what do we do to minimize the downside yeah well I I deal with that a lot in my book um and you're and for those need to know Ray's most recent book is the singularity is nearer the super imaginative title as a followon to the singularity is near which really began our relationship I read that book when I was when I was uh trekking through uh through uh where was I I was in Chile um Tre in the M I had met you at that point you

hadn't met me no and I I had this hu a backpack this huge hard cover book was a significant amount of the weight I was carrying and when I finished reading this book um I was like okay I know a lot of the stuff having spent you know a decade at MIT with folks like Eric Drexler and reading your previous books but I said there's no place on the planet that anyone can go to get an overview of all of these topics to understand what they mean and I wrote down at the end of the

book um you know International Singularity University which became Singularity University uh which I then approached you and and instantly we're having lunch I think and that actually yeah go ahead well I make decisions very quickly yeah instantly you said yeah let's do it persists in my life for decades um I make instantly um so I said yes yes you did and we launched it at Ted uh and at Ames and Larry Page was there he came on stage and said yes this should should exist and so singularities done really well and then you and I

started uh the abundance 360 membership which is singularity's highest level membership and the abundance Summit um but going back to the 8020 probability what do you think do you give us 20% chance of having problems well we're going to have problems I mean we have uh benefits and problems already uh fire warms us Cooks our food also Burns us and does both of those things uh we can be mindful that we know that fire can burn us so we have to avoid putting ourselves near fire um we already see things uh I mean I can

create you and I can have you saying things that you would never say it looks real that that exists today that's affecting the election which is a few weeks away um but I don't think we would want to get rid of AI uh its benefits are already quite enormous uh and it's going to get better literally I we talk about something a year ago it seems like ancient history so we're not going to want to get rid of it for sure um and we're going to actually want learn its problems people present problems that they

will present and they assume that all we have is the things that we can do today to to to modify it without realiz izing that that's also going to expand uh and we're going to be able to actually deal with problems that we can't deal with today um I mean would this is really an increase in our intelligence and would we want to not be intelligent have human beings be the intelligence of a mouse maybe that would be good we wouldn't be able to develop Atomic weapons that way um so yes Ence has brought us

problems that we didn't have before uh but I mean I I've given you a few charts use personal income yeah let's go ahead and put on the charts one second for those on YouTube which is most of our audience let's take a look at these charts I mean in constant dollars uh the amount of money per person uh the that a person in the United States makes is 10 times wor was 100 years ago um in constant dollars so we see an ex literally an exponential curve between 1774 um up through 2022 and this is

just a meteoric rise and the important thing is that these are in constant year dollars they're not inflated dollars yeah um and all this is driven by the exponential increase in computation you actually that's my most important chart and this is plotted on a log scale which means a straight line each level is 10 times the level below it so this started with a zusa computer he was a German in 1939 it was shown to Hitler uh he was not actually suppor of Hitler but it got shown to him Hitler had no interest in computation

the third computer on this chart is uh turning computer which was shown to road to uh um the leader of the Allied Forces uh we use it to to code the Nazi messages anyway uh this is a straight line which means exponential growth yeah and started at 0.0 07 calculations per second per C Dollar in 2024 uh the Nvidia chip the b200 uh is half a trillion calculations per second per consant dollar so for the same price we can now get 75 quadrillion fold increase in the amount of computation uh and that's what's Driven it

that's why we didn't have large language models in 1931 or even 3 years ago uh we began to have them two years ago we compar compare the things two years ago to today it's it's remarkable so this constant increase in the amount of computation for the same money uh has driven this AI uh Revolution that started two years ago you've you've deemed this the law of accelerating returns Moore's Law is a is a segment of it which involves integrated has to do with integrated circuits but this started at relays went to uh tubes discrete transistors

integrated circuits and now we've gone beyond integrated circuits and you don't see any variation in this tube is you don't line you don't expect this to slow down or stop no in fact I found this chart 45 years ago and felt it would continue and it has continued exactly uh as I found it 45 years ago so I had half of this chart uh and it's continued onto trillions of calculations per second per constant dollar so it's pretty amazing and it's going to continue uh we made the same uh progress with software as we have

with Hardware so the actual value is is the amount of computations we get uh from software and from Hardware both uh so it's actually even more expansive than what you see here yeah Elon was saying on on our stage last year that he's seeing 100x per year if you include uh computation and algorithmic efficiencies um well that's about what we've done with uh the kinds of computations we've done with the larg language models and if we compare what we have today to two years ago it's something like that so it's pretty extraordinary amazing I believe

the large language models should be called large event models uh because large language models yes they're actually pretty fantastic with language but they're not just applied to language they're applied to Pharmaceuticals they're applied to all kinds of things other than language so it really should be large event models everybody I want to take a short break from our episode to talk about a company that's very important to me and could actually save your life or the life of someone that you love company is called Fountain life and it's a company I started years ago with

Tony Robbins and a group of very talented Physicians you know most of us don't actually know what's going on inside our body we're all optimists until that day when you have a pain in your side you go to the physician or the emergency room and they say listen I'm sorry to tell you this but you have this stage three or four going on and you know it didn't start that morning it probably was a problem that's been going on for some time but because we never look we we don't find out so what we built

at Fountain life was the world's most advanced diagnostic Centers we have four across the us today and we're building 20 around the world these centers give you a full body MRI a brain a brain vasculature an AI enabled coronary CT looking for soft plaque a dexa scan a Grail blood cancer test a full executive blood workup it's the most advanced workup you'll ever receive 150 gab of data that then go to our AIS and our physicians to find any disease at the very beginning when it's solvable you're going to find out eventually you might as

well find out when you can take action Fountain life also has an entire side of Therapeutics we look around the world for the most Advanced Therapeutics that can add 10 20 healthy years to your life and we provide them to you at our centers so if this is of interest to you please go and check it out go to Fountain life /er when Tony and I wrote Our New York Times bestseller life force we had 30,000 people reached out to us for Fountain life memberships if you go to Fountain life.com Peter we'll put you to

the top of the list really it's something that is um for me one of the most important things I offer my entire family the CEOs of my companies my friends it's a chance to really add decades onto our health lifespans go to fountainlife decomp it's one of the most important things I can offer to you as one of my listeners all right let's go back to our episode so um I'd like to turn the conversation to a couple of uh of questions that have been on a lot of people's minds um and I want to

put them to bed because it causes fear and excitement uh the first is concerns of job loss and I think you and I I have both been consistent on our positions here um but uh do you see uh significant job loss in 2025 26 27 as a result of humanoid robots Aid driven humanoid robots coming online and large language models entering this field well I mean we have to consider what jobs uh what could are what value we get out of jobs um and if it's actually to to explore new areas find out new things

that we didn't know before uh that's very exciting that's what I've tried to do in my life uh and I can actually do that more if I actually have more intelligence I mean I have a certain amount of intelligence but it's limited I'll have a lot more if I can actually merge with the intelligence that we're creating um being but people are very eager to retire because they don't really don't like their jobs their jobs is we got the a bunch of tables that have been used we have to clean it up that's not the

kind of jobs that the bathroom these people these people get jobs because it's what they need to put food on the table for their kids or get insurance it's not they dreamed of doing as a kid and that kind of jobs we're going to be able to do for ourselves now that's going to lead to to some kind of dislocation um for example uh large language models can code already they're not quite the same level as a professional coder but they're going to get there pretty soon so we're going to have to relearn how to

apply our new intelligence to create new kinds of capabilities uh that that'll be very good that that's what we've done anyway 80% of people uh worked in food production uh 200 years ago 2% so we've lost all those jobs and yet we have actually more people working uh people say well don't worry about losing a job you'll become a social Med media influencer uh and no one would know what you're talking about uh so we're going to have new types of jobs things that we can't even imagine today um so there's going to be um

problems with figuring this out and it's going to go very very quickly but ultimately we'll be happier for it uh I think think we will um give people money so they can manage while they're reconsidering what kind of work they they you think Ubi will come on Ubi will come online Universal basic income yes I think in the 2030s well that come you know I've heard Jeff Bezos talk about we're going to tax the robots and the AIS that take the jobs and then we'll use the income from that as the tax base to then

Prov U people have different ideas I'm not sure we'll follow anybody's ideas but we'll figure that out um I mean we'll have to do that we won't have people won't have money to to buy products you know one of the another question along these lines is I think humans inherently need some level of Challenge and purpose in life to feel happy and I'm curious you know as we get super int you know as we head towards digital super intelligence or artificial superintelligence whatever name you like the digital super intelligence is going to be within us

it's not like we're here and the AI over there so we had that conversation on the abundance stage last year too and it's interesting right because that effectively means we are going to speciate they're going to be those who choose to merge with with AI and become enabled empowered and those who choose not to and then you've got the scenario with her the movie Her in which the AI get bored with us and just take off and go away um so will we link with AI I guess is one of the questions well we will

I mean 15 years ago I presented something like this and said are you going to want to carry this around every day you going want have it with you and people no maybe once a day I'll look at it uh recently I asked everybody who has a cell phone literally everybody had their cell phone yeah I'm sure so it's not like that certain persons that carry their cell phone and certain people that don't like carrying a cell phone is is a problem though if you want to get information from it it takes a few seconds

can take like 10 15 20 seconds that's actually too long you better if it just pops up in your mind uh and it's like uh if you try to remember something you remember it instantly uh that's how we want uh this new intelligence to be uh we don't want to have a separate thing I I have to carry this around all the time what a pain in the neck huh or pain in the butt it is but we do it so you think so you think purpose is going to be we're going to uplevel our

purpose because we're able to take on new huge aspirational goals because we're more intelligent and capable yes absolutely as you are would we want to stay the level of of a mouse I mean a lot of the problems we have are because of our intelligence like you Atomic weapons mice didn't do that we did that and that's because of our added intelligence so we've actually created problems uh and people think of new problems uh created by the additional intelligence we'll have um but and I guess I'm advocating that we'll be become more intelligent I I

think I think that's beneficial and we'll be able to do things that that are aspirational you know today when I'm I I I'm on stages and I I speak about a future of uh connecting with the cloud of of uh of brain computer interface of connecting our neocortex with the cloud and I ask people how many of you would like to do this and you know there's always a good 20% in the audience but it's not a 100% um because I think they fear the unknown uh I think it's very similar to when you ask

the question 20 years ago how many of you want to carry this around with you everywhere all the time um uh you know neuralink you know we humans connect at like 40 bits per second as we're communication communicating I think is the is the appropriate uh um rate speed there but well our thoughts actually occur to us much more quickly than that they do internally sure yeah and that's what we're going for we actually be able to create internal speeds like we have with our own brain um and that's what we'll have in the 2030s

we don't have that today what we have today is very good for people that can't uh communicate uh if you can't communicate and suddenly you can actually access a computer at the speed that people access computers today that's very beneficial but if you're talking about everybody it's got to be even faster um but that that will happen by the 2030s so I think one of the things that you pin uh both longevity escape velocity and brain computer interface on is the nanotechnology world and uh of course um uh Fineman Richard Fineman spoke about nanotechnology in

his very famous 1959 lecture there's plenty of room at the bottom and then a mutual friend of ours Eric Drexler in 1986 wrote uh uh the engines of creation and of course you've written extensive about about nanotechnology you describe what nanotechnology is and I am super curious uh where are we today in nanotech you know of any companies that are making uh diligent progress in that area uh I do I mean some of them are confidential um we don't actually need that type of uh um capability to do what I'm saying will happen in the

2030s uh it's basically the ability to communicate from our neocortex outside of our body and that we'll go to a cloud um and that doesn't actually require Drex sarian uh nanotechnology Eric spoke about assemblers right which are nanom machines that can rearrange individual anything yeah uh and we've had the description of computers that are at that level uh so literally computer of this size would have the intelligence of all human beings you know like 10 billion human beings together mhm but we don't need that for the 2030s um but we will'll be able to uh

do what I'm saying which is basically just have our neocortex communicate to the cloud and it doesn't have to be the entire neocortex NE cortex is organized like a funnel and the once as you go up the funnel uh Concepts become more complex and you really only need to interact with uh the last part of the the neocortex uh that we can do in the 2030s um and so if you you're thinking about something thoughts will come to you just like it comes to you from from your own brain and you won't actually be able

to tell the difference between things coming from your own brain and things coming from the neocortex it'll be the same so if I want to understand scher's equation and how it applies to you know certain molecules on the surface of a cell I will just understand it without knowing how yes and computers can do that today uh and you'll be able to do that as well uh so I'm going back I'm going back to MIT and becoming a physic physics major it's going to be so much easier you uh physics in every other field but

I mean you can do that with a large language model today can look up anything in physics or Humanities or psychology Psychiatry so on and you'll be able to get a very decent uh description of it but you have to read it takes few minutes as opposed to just instantly knowing it I mean that's that's really the difference uh knowing it instantly like it was in your own brain real quick I've been getting the most unusual compliments lately on my skin truth is I use a lotion every morning and every night religiously called one skin

it was developed by four PhD women who determined a 10 amino acid sequence that is a cytic that kills scile cells in your skin and this literally reverses the age of your skin and I think it's one of the most incredible products I use it all the time uh if you're interested check out the show notes I've asked my team to link to it below all right let's get back to the episode yeah we just saw we just saw two Nobel prizes obviously the prize that Jeffrey Hinton received and then the prize that uh Demis

and John jeer received uh both at Deep Mind um related to Ai and directly in AI uh you know in Alpha fold um yes it was very very much for AI yeah it a great year and here's the question um it seems to me like I would imagine in the next two to 10 years and then beyond almost every Nobel Prize in chemistry math and physics will be enabled by or directly discovered by AI do you agree with that yes I mean right now 95% of the Nobel prizes in medicine go to people with MDS

I I think they should get rid of that requirement uh because computer scientists they may not have stud at anything but they they know computer science and they can to develop Alpha fold for example we should sty human beings 50 years we get Alpha fold yeah I I remember when I was in medical school the the huge Grand Challenge was can you predict the folding of a protein right it was the Unknown super some people could do that but they didn't do it very accurately we only did few hundred th000 then one year we did

you know 200 million yeah um uh proteins in in one year and then Alpha proteo we can actually design new proteins that bind to a given Target protein and we can actually create something for example that goes into a cell determine whether or not it can uh divide cancerously and if it divides cancerously it'll set a flag and that flag is set it would destroy that cell so basically there would be a cure for cancer uh and we can actually do that with Alpha proteo uh we have to actually design the protein so there's a

few steps left but that's actually done a very large fraction of curing cancer for example let's let's switch on that note to the subject of longevity escape velocity something that we're both passionate about in fact I've got my uh my longevity cup here which says on the backside what would you do with an extra 30 years of healthy life um which is a low ball number um well also I mean when you get the 30 years of extra life it's not like nothing's going to happen during the 30 years that's the incredible part right it's

like I mean every year we're going to be able to develop new things for example all of our organs what do they do they either put things into the bloodstream or they take things out except for the heart and brain which which is a different matter but we can also deal with that um but like the lungs put in oxygen take out of carbon dioxide um and we're actually developing those yeah going to a board meeting of the United therapeutic SE year and we're actually developing lungs hearts um only a few years away uh so

literally all of our organs will be redeveloped uh so they'll be much more reliable right now people lose their lives because just one of their organs doesn't function properly so right now you you go through a year and you use up a year of your longevity however you're getting back approximately four months from scientific research um so you're only losing about 8 months a year of your longevity but by the early 2030s let say around 2032 depending on how diligent you are you live a year you give up a year of your L every but

you'll get back a full year from scientific progress beyond that point you'll actually get back more than a year so you'll actually go backwards in terms of time now that doesn't guarantee you live forever you could have a healthy 20-year-old you could compute his longevity as many many decades and he could die tomorrow probably from an accident we're also dealing with that with that yeah um self-driving cars for example have almost no accidents we lose $40,000 a year from Human drivers uh generally uh self-driving cars will actually have no accidents um but anyway uh um

it it's an amazing time I just tweeted out this morning a quote um from a paper by Dario uh amodi the CEO of anthropic who considers you one of the great Visionaries uh you're a hero of his and and he says it is my guess that powerful AI could at least 10x the rate of these biological discoveries giving us the next 50 to 100 Years of biological progress in the next 5 to 10 years and it's going to keep getting faster and faster it's not like we just go through one step and suddenly we're going

from getting back four months a year to 12 months it's going to go faster and faster and we're going to actually deal with accidents and actually be able to back up our brain and back up our heart and it's going to be very hard to imagine how you could die uh and people don't really want to die you ask people well do you want to live to 120 and people are negative about that because they think of people that they've met to met anybody 120 but they've met 95 100 year olds they don't want to

be like that but we won't be like that and people actually and people say well I don't want to live past 95 but when they get to be 95 and if they have sound mind and body and they said do you want to die tomorrow the answer is no unless they're in horrible pain yeah and obviously we want to avoid that as well yeah I I agree now you've been very Again part of your predictions uh been very specific in saying that we're going to reach longevity escape velocity by the end of the year 2030

you know I've had this conversation with George church and David Sinclair and they are placing it in the mid 2030s that still for anybody listening you know that's the next 6 to 10 years and so I think your advice is is don't die from something stupid between now and then right right exactly um and so we're still dependent on our own body which is very um problematic we got all these different organs one of them doesn't function quite correctly and it's not your choice uh you could die um but if you I mean I really

believe if you can hold on for five maybe 10 years uh we can replace all of these problems that uh enable us to die more quickly than we want did you see the the recent news that scientists have uh been able to uh to create the dropa connectome um they were able to to using a scanning electron microscope actually slice the brain of a dropa so thin and then use AI to map all the synaptic connections it's the first full brain that was actually mapped and I find that amazing yeah we're not going to use

um ual brain matter to uh expand our brain we're going to use the kind of I mean already uh the brains of uh computers are much more intelligent I we can go trillions of calculations per second our own brain goes about 200 calculations per second uh so the we we don't want to use our brain matter to expand our brain yes true but understanding how the brain functions um to avoid neurological kinds of thing I mean literally every day uh there's fantastic uh progress yeah I just think about a year ago seems like ancient history

let's go a year forward um I am curious uh being the Oracle of the singularity Ray that's my nickname for you uh what do you what do you have for us for the year 202 what do you think is likely or maybe you broaden it from 25 26 27 what do we what are we likely to see in the next uh 1 to three years well I mean just based on conversations I've had in the last few days we can already take an idea we have and transform it into a movie today the movies are

not quite there wouldn't convince you that it's done by uh a person although Google actually has a thing where you can actually take anything like I fed in my entire book I just just fed in the entire book and said have a podcast between two people uh that talks about the summary of the book yeah it's called what it's called Uh uh notebook LM isn't it yeah yeah it's an amazing product it actually got the right summary because there's a lot of ideas in the book some of which are not that uh important if you

want to talk about the summary of the book it actually picked the right things and had a two people that sounded human interacting about a summary of the book which was better actually than most summaries that that people have created on their own that's today now suppose you say well okay we got these two people people but I want to actually see them I want them to actually be in some kind of situation and can't quite do that today but that will happen within a year or two yeah I I believe that I just saw

uh one of the uh Avatar type companies um has created your ability to create your avatar and then have it join a zoom meeting and represent you in in form and voice and so you can be attending you know 100 or 500 you and I used to joke uh I'll have you know Ray two of 10 meet with Peter 3 of 10 in the meeting tomorrow afternoon and and being able to be in multiple places at once that's pretty extraordinary yeah that's going to happen I don't know if it's one year two years three years

but it's it's in that time frame yeah any other fun predictions or conversations you've had in the back halls of Google well all the things that we do I mean what's really exciting to me um when we created Pharmaceuticals we go to a person who's had some experience and they have some idea of what might be a pharmaceutical uh interaction and they work for 10 years testing on people um and maybe if they're lucky they'll find some Pharmaceuticals most of the Pharmaceuticals on the market today were done that way so when we're doing wanted to

find a covid vaccine they made a list of of all the different mRNA sequences that might uh create covid and they had several billion of them so you would actually test all several billion on on humans that's impossible to do so they actually simulated that and they simulated in two days they tried all several billion in different ways they could eliminate this patch and this patch and they found one thing uh that caused covid and they came up with a vaccine they actually created That vaccine in two days now we actually then tested it on

humans it took 10 months we'll be able to eliminate that by testing it also by using simulated biology uh and do that in a two in a few days and we'll be able to actually test every kind type of medication we want against cancer and so on uh very quickly and it'll be millions of times faster than than what we've done um especially with alha proteo right that's part that's part of the process uh to actually come up with proteins that can do that human trials are slow they're risky they're expensive they take a long

time uh we'll be able to do this much more quickly literally millions of times faster over the next few years so I think we're going to actually and already there's things on the market that were done that way uh for cancer and so on I've got people who got had cancer and actually trying these new things uh it's it's going to be really fantastic over the next few years did you see the movie Oppenheimer if you did did you know that besides building the atomic bomb at Los Alamos National Labs that they spent billions on

biod defense weapons the ability to accurately detect viruses and microbes by reading their RNA well a company called viome exclusively licensed the tech technology from Los Alamos labs to build a platform that can measure your microbiome and the RNA in your blood now viome has a product that I've personally used for years called full body intelligence which collects a few drops of your blood spit and stool and can tell you so much about your health they've tested over 700,000 individuals and used their AI models to deliver members critical Health guidance like what foods you should

eat what foods you shouldn't eat as well as your supplements and probiotics your bi ological age and other deep Health insights and the results of the recommendations are nothing short of Stellar you know as reported in the American Journal of Lifestyle medicine after just 6 months of following biomes recommendations members reported the following a 36% reduction in depression a 40% reduction in anxiety a 30% reduction in diabetes and a 48% reduction in IBS listen I've been using viome for 3 years I know that my oral and gut health is one of my highest priorities best

of all viome is Affordable which is part of my mission to democratize health if you want to join me on this journey go to vi.com Peter I've asked naven Jane a friend of mine who's the founder and CEO of viome to give my listeners a special discount you'll find it at vom.com Peter I'm going to go to a few questions from my Twitter audience in our last segment here um first question is do you say please and thank you to your AI to Gemini when you're communicating with it or with chat GPT or whatever you're

using yeah I haven't been convinced that they're human yet maybe that's just an old uh Habit of mine um I definitely say please and thank you I talk to them and it's like I I feel like if they become conscious I want them to know I was respectful from the beginning well that's good you're you're more advanced than I am I'll get there all right um uh next uh next question here uh will Humanity this is from uh Anna pan panart will Humanity split into two an AI merged set of humans and then the original

Homo Sapien species what do you think are we going to speciate no I mean I asked 10 15 years ago whether people would carry this around and I would say maybe 80% said they would not but that 80% is carrying this around today I mean how many people don't carry their their cell phone around it's approximately zero if you actually go out and you don't have it you got to go back and get it yes that's true um so the answer is if you ask people today some people would say no but when we actually

get there the advantages are going to be so great that everybody's going to have it and it's going to be a lot easier because you won't actually have to carry this around it'll be inside your mind next question comes from Dustin headed he says if you could upload your Consciousness into a robot um and I think we will be able to uh would you choose to retain your human flaws or opt to be a perfect version of right well right now we have really just one body we can be virtual reality has given us a

little bit of flexibility on that but uh the type of bodies you can get with viral R AR quite there they will be there ultimately we'll be able to create new types of bodies we won't be limited to one A different bodies for different occasions uh and you can have flaws or not have flaws and so on um and what will except for a body won't necessarily be even a human body you'll be able you'll be able to play games and so on that way you have a different type of body won't have be limited

to one body per person I love that uh Torsten HQ asks uh what are your recommendations for a teenager today for being ready for the future right University trade travel hard skills soft skills that's a question I'm often asked as well I'm I'm super curious I have two 13-year-old boys I don't think school's preparing them for the future what's your recommendation right well it's not just for teenagers I mean it's it's also for young kids and also for old kids like you and me um and you want to learn the passions that come from different

types of activities uh and what what it can benefit uh and then you can actually create new types of Institutions uh with new types of uh intelligence that we don't have yet that we will have in the future so you you want to find out what uh is beneficial of uh everything that we uh put effort into yeah you want to be courageous you want to follow your dreams despite the Skeptics you want to see an exponential future yeah I I answer that I want my kids to find their passion uh and become passion-driven or

purpose-- driven in that regard um Ash Stewart asks will AI or ASI lead to more centralization or decentralization and that's a fascinating question uh on a government side on an organizational side how do you think about that well what do you mean by centralization I think what they mean is um would a government um be enabling enabled with AI and I'm reading into their question here because I don't I this is not my question uh like you know like the like China benefit more from AI or a decentralized government uh be more beneficial from AI

um you know we we had you know the idea of Communism never could possibly have worked in a in uh with humans trying to run the supply demand curve and capitalism was the ideal Marketplace for that but the question is is an all- knowing AI able to do a better job um moving Society in a Direction I mean I think individual people will be able more than they can do today mhm uh because we'll have many more skills uh and you brought up certain mathematical things a lot of people in in the audience may not

have actually heard that before but we'll be able to understand that won't necessarily have to go to a lot of different people um we're basically taking all of the creations of every living person who've ever demonstrated and will actually have access to all of it inside our own mind um so it works both ways but it is democratizing um and molecular assemblers when we get to that I think that's going to be more like the 2040s uh we'll be able to build anything we want anywh there uh so the ability of one person is going

to uh become more de Democratic uh as we move forward here's a two-part question the touring test uh I feel like we passed the touring test a while ago um and the origin the originally described touring test right um and we just didn't notice do you agree with that yes I said that tur test is going to be we're going to hear early versions that computers are pass the turn test and uh we won't actually pay attention to that by the time it becomes clear that computers can pass the Turning test it'll have been said

so many times that we'll dismiss it oh that's old hat uh at this point and we've already gone past that first point we've already heard that g ap4 someone can handle the train test um but the time it becomes uh obvious we won't it won't be a question anymore and it's probably like four or five years we're in the midst of that now you know we saw gp1 uh score an IQ of 120 uh about a year ago we saw anthropic claw three score an IQ of 101 the average human IQ by definition is 100

um I know that Google has but there's some people that have a higher IQ sure so it's not it's not equal to all people but that's going to the uh average of so-called large language models is going to increase so it's 120 today it'll be 130 so that's my question where do you think where do you think we'll be next year uh or a year from now how fast is that escalation likely to be I mean I I'd say over the next by 2029 is going to be far beyond what humans can do I think

that is definitely uh true um but I you know I've heard projections that will hit 150 um and the question becomes you know uh do you think that could happen by early next year or next year which which would put it in the top you know 0.00001% of humanity and also it has some things that that no human being can do at all I mean you can ask it any question and it can actually give you a very good response and if you don't like that response you can ask it again it'll say the same

thing in different words but also intelligently no human being today can do that so it has that Advantage it it knows everything that anybody has has ever de dealt with Ry uh I want to thank you for your mentorship for your leadership for your vision for all that you've done thank you it's been a two-way pleasure yeah I'm looking forward to the next 30 Years together maybe 100 we'll see um you know yes well the next five years is going to be pretty spectacular so it's going to be unbelievably spectacular and into is such uh

a pleasure to be alive you know the one reason I think we're living in a simulation is this is such the most extraordinary time ever to be alive and The Coincidence of being here now well hey yeah but you talk to people that think it's a terrible time to be alive so yeah that's a problem they have children so yeah well you know I remember it was sitting down with with you and Neil jacobstein in the early days of Singularity where the idea of my first book the abundance the future is better than you think

uh came came into Play Because as we're sitting there talking about it and and and I'm saying wow there is technology is the force that turns everything from scarcity into abundance over and over and over again and people's default mindset of of fear and scarcity is blinding them to what's going on in the world yeah it's true yeah um but that will continue um well hopefully we can help people see it a little bit differently Ray uh have a beautiful day my friend um wherever you are in the cosmos and uh and thank you for

spending the time with me I hope we can do this again yeah absolutely [Music]