Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be discussing the bull market support band if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the Crypt premium at intothe cryptoverse decom so the bull market support band is really helpful for identifying major uptrends and major downtrends in major downtrends the Bitcoin price will basically stay below its bull market sport Bend for most of the bare Market interestingly this cycle we've had two fake outs below the bull market support ban at the same time during the year so back in Q3 of 2023 Bitcoin briefly went below the bull market support band and in Q3 of 2024 Bitcoin briefly went below the bull market support band apart from those quarters Q3 of 2023 and Q3 of 2024 right apart from these two quarters Bitcoin has essentially been above its bull market support band since January of 2023 right so almost two full years where Bitcoin has been above its bullmark square pan with the exception of two two quarters Q3 of each year and it's actually really interesting because if you go look at at like the um the year-to date Roi of Bitcoin in 2023 and 2024 right you can see it was that Lull in the market by August September time frame which is what led Bitcoin to go below uh its bull market support ban right by Q3 2023 and Q3 2024 you can see that other times when it was tested it found support at the bull market support ban right and so right now the bull market support ban ranges from around 75k to 80k right 75 to 80k now that doesn't mean you can't go below it obviously you could and to be completely honest I wouldn't be that surprised at some point to see Bitcoin retest that line right sort of the lower high structure uh from the prior year wouldn't be that surprising if something like that eventually happened but it is interesting how this you know this what we saw this Q3 of 2024 is really similar to what we saw in Q3 of 2023 and one of the ways that you can visualize you know Bitcoin is by just simply looking at the extension of the price of to bitcoin above its 20we moving average and on here we call it the short-term bubble risk what's interesting is that Bitcoin has been relatively uh steady here in terms of anytime it reaches you know kind of like this level right here where it's like 30 to 40% above the bull market support band that's usually when it either stalls out for a while or gets a correction right you can see that a year ago around this time Bitcoin also stalled out for a few weeks right you see that you can see that going into December this was the early December just like over here early December you can see Bitcoin stalled out for a few weeks and then by the end of January it Wicked to almost the 21 we EMA it almost made it there to the 21 we EMA again right now the 21 we EMA is around 80k and by the end of January it would probably be high higher like significantly you know higher than than 80k it could be 85k or something like that but this is an important way to look at the market because what it shows you is when the market gets too extended and needs to cool off right so anytime this cycle we've seen Bitcoin extend 35 to 45% or so above its 20we moving average it's usually due for either a correction right A Drp in price or a consolidation in price until the bull market sport band catches up okay that structure has not yet broken whenever the structure does break then you could argue you get another bare Market but the reason you know the reason why this is kind of interesting to look at is because you know anytime so in 2023 when it got below the 20 week SMA on really the first attempt to get back above it it was successful over here you you know it was just one week and then back up and I've always said right if it's just a week it doesn't really make a lot of sense to you know to put a lot of faith into that but you can see that it it it basically came down here in August September and we said it was likely going to be about a 6mon lull and six to n months and it was about 7 to8 right so it made sense for it to pick up right back here so what I think you should watch for going into the next month or two is watch for the bull market sport band to slowly go up like that kind of like what it did last year right where it goes up Bitcoin kind of consolidates again which is what it's been doing and potentially even Wicks down to it right and again that is essentially what happened last year right when you look at at the short-term bubble risk that's what happened now if Bitcoin does not is not able to hold the bullmark and obviously that would be a different story and you'd have to start looking for for other outcomes but one of the reasons right now why Bitcoin I think is stalling out is because the um the 10year yield continues to go up right if you overlay the 10year yield with Bitcoin you know it it the 10year yield is is really breaking out right now and and you can kind of see like when it broke out over here back in in July 2023 uh you also had sort of this Bitcoin correction right there now you can see the 10-year yield is is breaking out once again and you're you're getting this pull back in the markets and remember Bitcoin historically does get a pullback in January of post having years it doesn't necessarily have to happen this time but if you look at at 2021 you'll see Bitcoin got a uh about a 30 30 30 to 31% correction or so in January of postt year so 2021 and in January of 2017 uh Bitcoin had about a a 35% drop so that would be standard I mean if it were to happen um you know and and if and whether it's from this high or a slightly higher high right if you get a 30% I mean it's already gone down you know 15% right if it did go down a little bit more that would get you close to the bullmark square pin or if you see what happened last year happened again where it kind of Wicks higher in January and then Wicks lower um in late January then you could get a 30% correction but from a slightly higher price than the price we saw at 108k okay the other thing to think about too in terms of the bullmark sport band is to look at the natural log of the price over the 20we moving average and you know I continue to bring this up uh and and it continues to be valid right that this trend line here continues to act as resistance and anytime that Bitcoin hits it it struggles right it really struggles to break through and and I do expect it to break through at some point because eventually it would imply that bitcoin's always below the 20we moving average whenever this thing goes below zero here because the natural log of the price over the 20 20we SME if the price is the same as the 20we SME then you get the natural log of one the natural log of one is zero and so if it's below zero it implies the price is always below 20we moving average So eventually this trend line does need to break but you can see that it has not yet broken um despite all the cause for it in fact to break right it just continues to act as resistance showing you that diminishing volatility from one cycle to another is something to to respect because it continues to play out from one cycle to another right every time we hit the trend line there has in fact been a a drop or at least a cool down period the other thing to think about and then we'll we'll wrap it up is if you look at at usdt dominance one of the things you'll notice with it is this is kind of what happened last year right where it it it set a low right there was a low set here and then Wicked below that low in December and January and then went back up to its own bull market support ban right see you could argue that's what's happening right there was there was this low here by usdt dominance and then just swept that low and now you're seeing the market really fight with seasonality of wanting to go up but also it's fighting the 10year yield which is pushing risk outsides down and so you're seeing usdt dominance slowly go up uh just like it did last year around this time and then it's probably going to check in with its own bull market sportband relatively soon now if usdt Domin gets rejected by the bullmark span that would be really good for Bitcoin USD if USD dominance breaks through its bullmark sport pan that'd be really bad for for for Bitcoin us for Bitcoin USD okay we had a very similar structure last year as well actually in 2019 where usdt dominance was putting in these higher lows right and then it eventually broke down right it eventually broke down but then when it got back up to the bullmark SP band February 2020 I think a lot of people thought it was going to get rejected and then USD dominance just soared through because we had a pandemic induced recession so you could get something like that as well right I don't think people should just completely discount that scenario we did just get the UN inversion of three Monon and 10year yield so naturally you know I think it makes sense to be somewhat cautious about that but this just goes to show you all the nuances in the market right if you want Bitcoin to go higher watch usdt dominance and see if it gets rejected from around 4. 72 to 5% if it gets rejected there then Bitcoin likely will put in another all-time high if USD dominance basically Soares through the 20we SMA like it did back over here in February of 2020 if it just Soares through it like it's not even there then you're like you're likely looking at a at a larger Bitcoin pullback uh that you know could could be on par with what we've seen historically in January of uh post having years right normally we see larger Corrections in January post having years so we'll see if that happens but so far uh this cycle has been playing out in a very similar fashion and then there there was one other thing I wanted to mention and that was actually the stable coin Supply ratio oscillator um I know it's a mouthful but if you look at the stable coins play ratio oscillator uh what what you'll notice is that um is that we actually had a very similar move last year as well where it got it spiked in October uh over here it spiked in November number and then it slowly went down and then Bitcoin Consolidated and then it got another Spike after it reached about that 579 level right now the ssro is at 1. 03 so and and it's getting closer last last year when it hit 0.

553 it was late January so was about a month from now before it hit that level and and then we all we saw the ssro go back up and the price of Bitcoin went up as well um so I would you know I think it's important to keep that in mind too obviously there's also the other we've discussed and that's the launch of the QQQ that rallied into the you know two weeks after its oneyear anniversary that would put it um basically the end of January as well uh so a lot of things to consider guys but I did want to at least provide the update to the bull Mark send for Bitcoin look at it in a few different ways the natural log of the price the 20we SMA the extension of the price from the 20 20we SMA look at it in line with you know usdt dominance the state coin play ratio oscillator and just kind of see like where we are and why the market is really moving a whole lot right now right usdt dominance sweep the low the Mark's trying to figure out is that a double bottom for usdt dominance or is it just a setting up for a lower high for another like lower on USD dominance so I think that's why the market is is somewhat confused and if you want to know uh whenever the the sort of the the walls could be lifted for Bitcoin just keep an eye on the 10e yield as long as the 10e yield goes up bitcoin's likely going to struggle if the 10-year yield goes down it depends on why right if the Contin your guild is going down because you know just because you know it's it's gone up a lot in the short term and and maybe people are expecting a little bit too much growth therefore it needs to come back down inflation's not so bad then Bitcoin will likely go up but if the 10e yield goes down because say the unemployment rate comes in next week and it's at like 4. 4% or something then you would likely see Bitcoin sell off uh because of that of that fear of of you know recession right whether it materializes or not it's something else but just the the fear of it just like when we got the 4.