Stock Themes for the Next Bull Run | Why Private Consumption is likely to GROW? | Akshat Shrivastava

hi everyone welcome to today's video so on today's video I'm going to help you understand where the market is likely to be in the next 2 to three years and how you should from a macroeconomics point of view reshape your portfolio because this is exactly what I'm doing and I'll help you understand the macro story there what do I mean by macro story so in very simple terms over the last 2 three years you would have seen that public sector Banks or public sector units have given exceptional returns right for example I invested a lot

of money in public sector bands that team did really well but recently I've cut literally all my positions this is not an investment advice please do your own due diligence do whatever you like I'm just helping you present a viewpoint but on the flip side there were stocks for example Railway stocks ET on which I did not build any portfolio and even those themes have done well so that's a macro theme right so what type of macro themes are going to pick up in the next few years that's the conversation that we are going to

have in very simple easy to understand language please watch this video till the very end if you watch half of it just try to pick up the stock names that I'm talking about that's not the goal you will actually run into losses it's a better okay so a better thing is that please watch the video till the very end this is a serious Learning Channel this is geared toward serious investors in case you're a serious investor again a push from my site is please join my YouTube member Community it is very very important that you

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can join the link by using the description and comment box and also don't forget to sign up for the WhatsApp group for this training now with that said let's move over to the main video so the the first key point is that markets go up because someone is spending money okay so for what do I mean by someone spending money so there are basically two parties right one party is called as the government they spend money they spend a lot of money and the second party is called as private spending so private spending means right

that is private spending now one of this has to go up ideally both of them have to go up for the markets to go up because if you think of an opposite case ke government is also not spending money and and private individuals are also not spending money then what will happen well then no one is spending money and as a result companies are selling less and less and if companies are selling less and less then their next quarter results next three four quarter results are going to be bad and as a result the stock

price will also drop off very common sensical but very very important point so let me take you to my whiteboard and explain this concept little bit more in detail and please do not worry about the fact he stock I will I am going to cover some stocks also okay so let's begin so okay so two types of spending number one is government spending and what we have seen from the year 2021 up until almost like the beginning of 2024 the government spending was going up like crazy for example India infrastructure story India manufacturing story India

EV story roads for roads etc etc now see I'm not saying that India's government is not going to spend money they are going to undertake spending that's not the point what stock market investors need to be concerned about is called as the growth rate of that spending what has happened is that in 2020 because of covid the total spending just slumped out right there was no one spending money so government printed a lot of money borrowed a lot of money and started spending crazy amount of money in 2021 2022 2023 and maybe even in 2024

and more importantly the growth rate of that spending was going up Up and Up Now a major change that is happening in the economy is that see theoretically this spending rate is not going to escalate from this point for example let's say our total budget or total outlay is let's say 100 rupees by the government okay now this year it's not going to go up by like crazy right it will go up by a sensible number only but between 2020 and 2023 the rate of growth of government spending was crazy and as a result be

it like you know any kind of infra stock it has given very good run-ups most of the infra stocks have given a runup most of the government psus have given a run up including public sector bands so that has been a major Trend major macroeconomic picture that has been shaping up so I hope that this first point is clear now the change that has happened is that if you study the last two years the private spending has been really really slow for example Hindustan un Li which is one of the top companies in India their

management is complaining that you know what boss we are not seeing any volume growth now what is the meaning of volume growth volume means that for example uh if H used to sell like 100 shampoo bottles they are still selling almost that number the only growth that is coming for them is that they are jacking up the prices of that product right so price times Q or Price times quantity is equal to the total revenue of the company so H yes it's making more and more revenues but there has been no volume growth similar story

in automobiles if you check consumer durable stocks we voltas bpool all these companies struggled quite aggressively voltas may I invested money almost doubled by money in the last one year which has been fantastic growth but the important change and the most important change you could consider making on your portfolio is gearing your portfolio towards private sector spending businesses now what do I mean by private sector spending business very simple example just say for example if the government is spending money will it buy like HL shampoos the short answer is no okay it theoretically cannot it

can just run like more contracts and give like more capex and whatever but they're not going to buy like you know HL shampoos that will that might be an indirect result of everything so this is like one key thing that more money is now going to shift towards private sector spending now what does private sector spending depends on this is brings us to point number two well it depends on emis or the borrowing rate for private individuals now this depends on your overall interest rates now here is a chart of the interest rates in the

US interest rates in Europe have already come down and it is expected that over the next 2 to 3 years if this is the time frame in which you're getting your portfolio that over the next 2 to 3 years India is going to cut its interest rate quite aggressively and we will find a new normal New Normal in the US 5.5% base interest rates say we might fall to like maybe 3% okay so something similar might happen in India also now as a result what will happen well one of the key things that will happen

is that the home loan rates are going to come down people are going to spend more money more money will be borrowed etc etc well there are indications for example over the last 6 months you would have seen RBI getting very active in ter terms of trying to pre-end the bad loan situation in the economy now what do I mean by that for example just say P2P lending pay it has put very strict restrictions even CCH digital banking practices have been you know sort of being lashed a little bit for example PTM money Etc they

have been stopped from disbursing a lot of credit in the economy why this is like prep ground we understand that we are going to cut the interest rate we have to shift from government spending to private spending and therefore it becomes very critical to at least build a solid foundation so in the next 2 to three years one of the biggest bit that I'm taking is very simple that I focusing on companies which will benefit from private spending natural question which brings us to the next point that okay government spending come right the growth of

government spending will not grow very simple right so take a look at this chart and what this indicates is and this is a very important Point actually to discuss so let me spend like maybe a few minutes discussing that quickly so what you will notice is that number one if you take a look at government expenditure from 2019 to 2023 for example you can see that it was at 26 units then it jumped to 35 units grow rate has been slow so it's not as a growth rate generally Del this has been a massive Delta

from 20120 to 2021 why because this was a money printing year for majority of the governments the government expenditure growth rate has been crazy so this is point one now your government expenditure growth rate does not come for free for example if Indian government is borrowing this government expenses okay now this is loan on the government this money is not generated for free this is a topic in itself maybe we'll cover it someday this money is not free for example let's say that there was only 80 units of money now it's 100 units of money

in 2021 okay additional 20 units is the government has to go and do what pay the interest RS also even when the government actually prints money they are borrowing money technically and they have to repay the interest rate now data is not clear in India that how much would the Indian government repay as interest but in us this is this issue was already blowing up so this is what the data tells us that there will be an interest repayment on the national debt up to 1 trillion okay so trilon India's GDP is like what4 trillion

right or trilon 15 25% of debt repayment from the US on its existing debt now this is a very very very big number right and now this is the reason why you would have been hearing the commentary Donald Trump came to power and he made Elon Musk the head of the government efficiency and government organiz government I'm going to fire them like the way I did Twitter right but the more serious message there is that see governments are bloated they are inefficient they are too big and they are burning money like crazy so you need

someone like Elon Musk to step in and ensure efficiency okay so this is a very very important point please remember that that governments are going to I'm not saying they will become prudent in terms of spending money but they have to slow down that's the more important message they cannot at least at the very least escalate the rate of spending so even economists in India are saying a similar thing and I will show you the article here so this is a fairly recent article and the headline says economy likely to be slowed in July September

quarter government to release dat on Friday so for example there was a very important paragraph right so this is by Aditi n Chief Economist IC she said that the Q2 saw Tailwinds in terms of picking up in kex after parliamentary elections as well as healthy expansion in sewing of major khif crop okay The Economist and this was a very important Point okay the data point was that see this data is actually government back data parament elections of what capex of the government right the will all enjoy and we will then sayock market and all that

stuff and GDP is like very good now government has no incentive to play that game neither in India neither in the US so what's the incentive show me the incentive why the government is going to make the debt crazy right it's unlikely that they are going to make the debt or escalate the debt very quickly from this point because now they a macroeconomic risk that if they end up doing this type of budgetary expansion it will weaken the economy it will create inflation problem in the economy then that becomes like a you know W bang

losing thing so there is no incentive for them to undertake like capital expenditure via the ENT so therefore their only hope is interest R right let's cut the interest rate Propel the private spending this is what they are going to focus on and this is what it is going to hit your portfolio quite a in fact it has already started to hit so what do I mean by that so HDFC bank right so this is HDFC bank right and if you actually understand technicals fundamentals you will be happy building like a structure and investment pis

on it you will not keep on like you know s of getting B right so all these things were going up it's not as if all your stocks in your portfolio will go up but but very wa let me explain last 6 months HDFC last 6 month has gone up by roughly 18% okay last 6 months nifty 50 has pered by roughly 10% so Alpha in comparison to nifty 50 for HDFC has been 28% right so right you have to see return in context of the market right Market has been falling HDFC is already up

28% comparison to the market this is very good run up already right the low on many right okay so this is like simple point that I will tell you this is not a by recommendation this is what the technical chart tells usure and you yourself will be able to do this technical analysis but you'll only be able to do technical analysis if you know how to use that knowledge okay so therefore I keep on recommending right have like little bit of patience on things all the stops cannot run all the time okay this is a

very important bit okay so then comes the next point that okay what stocks can we be bullish on I'll give you like f around it right and you guys yourself go and do research okay first is banking stops I already explained okay why banks are likely to do well because whenever interest rates are going to get cut private spending is going to pick up why private spending because of Emi borrowing rate that will go down okay okay second second home loan companies right home loan companies for example I have something called as aptus value Finance

in my portfolio AAS right AAS has already given a little bit of runup okay1 small pance all these likely are likely to do well okay then you have domestic consumption companies right now what is the meaning of domestic consumption company for example s 360 I had purchased it okay now it is somewhere around 500 rupees it's crazy run up that has happened it any private spending what does that allow these type of companies to do right if they have to go and raise money more they can actually do it they can dilute more Equity whatever

right so 100 different ways right actually these type of companies which are capital hungry companies and if the cost of credit goes down which means the cost ofed and they are already solid companies then investors will chase these type of company and this is precisely what is happening on swiy should you buy swiy now I don't know simple Point don't buy it now also right so that's a simple point I'll tell you okay then you have unlisted companies now unlisted space right now is probably the best bet that I would say why because whenever the

interest rate gets cut these type of golden companies and I'm not saying every unlisted company out there for example there are a good set of companies for example there a care rating right now this is a good company according to me oo right if if you adjust for the loss of valuation that is that I'm not giving recommendation okay you will have to understand what is the right price to buy so I'll discuss all these things on my member Community also but to cut the long story short these type of unlisted stock which are very

good unlisted companies or at least some of the unlisted companies from the space could potentially 2x I'm not saying that these companies are going to 2x but there are a set of companies that could potentially 2x why is it that you're picking these type of companies right so this is another important bit that you can take finally most important L I still feel that fintech is a great theme right for example AMC if you're getting these type of stocks at a discount it makes sense okay the problem will be valuation of the company right so

there are some unlisted companies which are at very high valuation there are listed companies which have become really high for example HDFC AMC when I picked it up it was at 16 1700 1800 aspas right now it is at 4,000 now it has doubled it's the market cap is huge should you buy it should you not buy it really depends on the type of an investor you are what your goals are but from from a theme perspective if you're gearing your portfolio which are in the private spending space and which will benefit from increase in

private consumption private spending and those companies are likely to do well over the next two to three years because that is where the major cycle is turning so this is what I would be doing in case there are specific names of the stocks that you would want me to cover or any specific questions that you would like to ask me please put it in the comments I'll try my level best to answer those thank you so much for watching I'll see you soon