The Next 26 Days Will Make Millionaires in 2025 (Here's How)

all three major American Stock markets have closed down trade risks continue to Rattle investors it went off a cliff and in fact we were actually down over 900 points when it comes to the Dow at one point today millionaires are made during stock market downturns and the bigger the decline the bigger the opportunity especially if we can be greedy when others are fearful that's the best way to get rich without getting lucky so in this video I'll show you everything you need to know about this latest market downturn and which stocks could win big as

a result your time is valuable so let's get right into it first things first being greedy when others are fearful is much easier said than done the best thing any investor can do during a downturn is make moves Based on data not emotion that's why I'm making this video I'm also not here to waste your time so here's everything I'm going to cover up front what exactly is causing this latest market downturn and why how far stocks could drop and for how long the data that I used to be greedy when others are fearful and

of course which stocks I'm buying as a result all Based on data that I'll be sharing throughout the video there's a ton to talk about so let's Dive Right into this latest Market downturn stock markets around the world are falling as president Trump's tariffs take effect Goods coming to the US from Canada and Mexico will have a 25% tariff while Chinese Goods now have 20% tariffs on top of more specific ones for example the 25% tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum Mexico Canada and China are America's top three trading partners accounting for 42% of all

us Imports in 2024 the US runs a trade deficit which means we import more Goods than we export president Trump is trying to use tariffs to close that Gap by encouraging Americans to buy domestic products and encouraging manufacturers to onshore their operations but that could backfire for example manufacturers might move out of China but to another country with lower costs of operations instead of to the us or they might not move at all and just pass these added costs on to consumers in fact a study by the National Bureau of economic research found that the

costs of President Trump's trade war in 2018 were passed entirely onto importers and consumers while the Federal Reserve says that the 2018 tariffs led to job losses and higher prices rising prices and unemployment means lower spending by businesses and consumers which means lower earnings for companies and ultimately lower stock stock prices that's the link between Trump's tariffs and the stock market going down right now but how far can stocks keep dropping and how worried should investors actually be to answer that let's take a look at some historic Market data next this is a chart from

First Trust in boomberg showing the performance of the S&P 500 during every bare and bull market going back to 1942 the x-axis is time the Y AIS is total returns and the vertical bars indicate recessions it turns out that bull markets last about 4.3 years on average while bare markets last 11 months the average total return during a bull market is about 150% while the average loss during a bare Market is roughly 32% that means bull markets last 4 and a half times longer than bare markets and return three times more than bare markets lose

this is why millionaires are made during stock market downturns they're really Windows of opportunity to buy the best stocks at deep discounts that's also why this channel focuses on long-term investing it takes years for markets to hit the top and recover from their bottom here's another study that splits bare markets into their declines and their recoveries for example the S&P 500 went down 21.6% over 15 months in 1956 and then took another 11 months to recover from the bottom compare that to the start of the pandemic where the S&P 500 dropped 34% in a single

month and took just 5 months to recover there are two big lessons in this chart that will make millionaires as as well first looking at historical data on Market crashes is not the same as living through one for example most of us would probably take the February 2020 crash over the one from 1956 since it took 15 times longer to hit the bottom but in reality the 2020 crash was much harder to hold through because the decline was so sudden and so sharp averaging around a 1.5% decline per trading day for a month straight and

second while the shortest bare markets Jam all that Panic selling into a a matter of weeks the average bare Market actually takes around 13 months to bottom and 24 months to recover that's why it's so important to keep cash on the side and dollar cost average in over time also note that eight of the 11 bare markets took place during a recession and we might be heading for another one soon at least technically a recession is defined as a fallen GDP for two consecutive quarters and GDP is the sum of all personal consumption private Investments

net exports and government spending I'm not making any political statements here but the first three are trending down thanks to inflation and now tariffs and we should assume a meaningful reduction in government spending if Elon Musk and the department of government efficiency are doing their job again this isn't about personal politics I'm pointing it out because recessions strongly correlate with bare markets whether there's a recession or not how can we actually know when to be fearful and when to be greedy I like looking at two sets of data and speaking of data I found out

that dozens of online data Brokers were selling my personal data and if you've been getting more spam phone calls texts or emails lately they might be selling yours too that's why I joined delete me the sponsor of this video delete me is a hands-free subscription service that will remove your personal information from hundreds of online data Brokers you just sign up enter your information and let their experts get to work they've reviewed over 44,000 listings for me so far after 7 days you get a privacy report showing everything they done I just got my eighth

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my link in the description and a big thank you to delet me for supporting the channel and keeping my family's data safe all right there are two important sets of data that I look at to know when to be fearful and when to be greedy the first one is CNN's fear and greed index which is currently showing extreme fear you can also see a one-year timeline of the fear and greed index which is currently near oneyear lows and I think that's useful information for anyone trying to be greedy when others are being fearful what I

like about this index is that it's an average of seven already useful market indicators including stock price momentum strength and breath the ratio of puts to call options Market volatility and demand for bonds relative to stocks so I'm getting a lot of great information all in one place the two metrics I pay attention to the most are Market momentum and Market volatility I like to buy more stocks when Market momentum dips below the 125-day moving average which it has and when Market volatility spikes near 30 which it hasn't done quite yet when both of these

things happen at the same time there's a good chance that I'm getting great companies at even greater prices but that only ever happens when the market is being extremely fearful the other data set that I really like is the a aii sentiment survey every week the American Association of individual investors asks its members where they think the stock market will be over the next 6 months then they update the results as well as the one-year extremes it turns out that last week was the most bearish week over the last year investors are about twice as

bearish and about half as bullish as usual with way fewer neutral votes than average which is another indicator that the market is currently being extremely fearful all right so far we've covered what's causing this Market downturn looked at historical data on Bull and bare markets and figured out how to tell when others are being fearful so we know when to be greedy with all that context we can talk about which stocks to buy as a result and if you feel I've earned it consider hitting the like button and subscribing to the channel that really helps

me out and it lets me know to make more content like this thanks and with that out of the way let's talk some stocks in my opinion the foundation of every good long-term portfolio starts with a fund especially if you're a newer or more emotional investor with itchy fingers hey we've all been there all the data that we've looked at so far tracks the S&P 500 but it applies just as much to the NASDAQ 100 because there's so so closely correlated which means they tend to move together the triple Q's have a few big advantages

over the SNP like not holding commercial or investment Banks and not being limited to us companies and because it tracks 100 companies instead of 500 the NASDAQ is more volatile which means it makes higher highs in Bull markets and lower lows in bare markets exactly what I'm looking for to be greedy when others are being fearful and if you're in the US check out vgt the Vanguard information techn techology ETF vgt holds more companies for more diversification than the NASDAQ it has lower fees and it tends to make slightly higher highs and lower lows over

the long term but just to be clear I treat both funds the exact same way and they both make great foundations for any long-term portfolio earlier in the video I talked about how Rising prices thanks to tariffs might mean lower consumer spending which leads to lower earnings and ultimately lower stock prices consumer sentiment surveys are a good way to gauge that like this one by the University of Michigan when consumer sentiment is low and people spend less direct to Consumer companies and advertising companies tend to feel it the most on the consumer side Amazon is

currently trading at a price to earnings ratio of 37 which is the lowest PE ratio it's seen in 2 years and according to discounted cash flow models like simply Wall Streets Amazon is currently 42% undervalued compared to consensus analyst estimates said another way Amazon stock would have to go up by 72% to hit its fair value today 72% upside like I said millionaires are made during stock market downturns and now you can see why on top of that I think these estimates are actually on the low side because analysts tend to undervalue the growth of

Amazon web services as well as Amazon's advertising business which I point out every time I cover their earnings on the advertising side Google is trading at a price to earnings ratio of 20 which is also at a 2-year low and simply wall Street's TCF model has it 34% undervalued versus analyst estimates which would mean a 52% upside and just like with Amazon I think these estimates are low because analysts have conservative estimates on revenues from Google Gemini and they're pricing in some AI disruption to Google search likewise analysts currently have a whopping $900 price Target

on meta platforms which means they're currently 27% undervalued and they could drop even further since their business is so dependent on ads the last company I want to highlight is tsmc the Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company tsmc makes a whopping 90% of all advanced chips on Earth from Tesla's chips for full self-driving to the a series and M series chips inside Apple's iPhones and MacBooks and of course nvidia's gpus president Trump recently floated placing tariffs on computer chips made in Taiwan that could reach as high as 100% % one version of his tariff plan even includes

placing them on any device containing Taiwanese chips so Tesla's cars Apple's iPhones and anything with an Nvidia GPU in my opinion this isn't a serious proposal but more of a tactic to get tsmc to build more factories and make more chips on us soil even still these headlines are driving TSM stocks price down over the last month to $180 per share while analysts think the fair value is closer to $2 $70 implying over a 50% upside so there you have it hopefully this video helped you understand what's causing the latest Market downturn how bare markets

compared to Bull markets what data helps me be greedy when others are being fearful and of course some great stocks being impacted by tariffs inflation consumer sentiment and all the headlines happening today because relying on data instead of your feelings is a great way to get rich without getting lucky and if you want to see what else I'm buying to get rich without getting lucky check out this video next thanks for watching to the end even though I gave you everything upfront and until next time this is ticker symbol you my name is Alex reminding

you that the best investment you can make is in you