See what three degrees of global warming looks like

three degrees it can be the difference between snow and sleet wearing a jacket or not in your day-to-day life it may not seem significant but three degrees of global warming would be catastrophic [Music] heatwaves droughts extreme precipitation even fire three degrees of warming is really disastrous the scary thing is the world is well on its way there since the industrial revolution the earth has warmed between 1. 1 and 1. 3 degrees celsius this is a problem that babies you pass in the street will have to live with children born today are up to seven times more likely to face extreme weather than their grandparents if global temperatures do rise by three degrees what would their world look like rising sea levels desertification hollywood has always enjoyed imagining the end of the world while blockbusters like this are clearly fiction this film will show the scenario we all face unless more drastic measures are taken to stop burning fossil fuels [Music] in some parts of the world the effects of inaction are already clear the slums of bangladesh's capital are filling up with climate migrants minara comes from bola district an area in southern bangladesh there like many other parts of the country rivers swollen by heavier rain and melting himalayan glaciers are washing away people's homes many like her have lost everything 1.

1 to 1. 3 degrees of global warming has already transformed minara's life it's one of the reasons why so many migrants like her are moving to the city each year nearly four hundred thousand according to the last estimate and climate models show there could be much worse to come climate scientist yuri rogel has spent the last 10 years modeling future climate scenarios for the united nations the models we use to carry out this exercise really represent the state of the art of our current knowledge of climate change and where we are heading yuri's projections use data collected by hundreds of scientists around the world here this is the three degree level and so there is at least a one in four chance that under current policies we would hit three degrees by the end of the century this is just one of the scenarios yuri looks at another one imagined that all policy promises are kept the most optimistic assumes that all promises have been kept and net zero targets are met where our best estimate ends up around 2 degrees at the end of the century there is still a 1 in 20 chance that we end up with 3 degrees instead one wouldn't be entering a plane if there is a 1 in 20 chance that the plane will crash a rise of 3 degrees would affect everyone even wealthy cities and rich countries wouldn't be immune to the consequences european capitals like paris and berlin would bake under more extreme heat waves frequent storm surges in new york could turn parts of the city desolate in many ways cities um magnify intensify climate events cities are hotter than the places around them they tend to be more vulnerable to flooding and you can get a really bad event in the city in a way that you can't in the countryside and because of their denser populations disasters in a city affect far more people some cities might be badly prepared for the changes coming but they have the means to adapt cities tend to be wealthier um than surrounding places they have a lot of amenities a city that has taken seriously the risks of a three-degree world wouldn't necessarily be a worse place to be in a three-degree world but a city that hasn't prepared for these sort of eventualities that might be a really nasty place [Music] so far many developed cities have gotten off lightly but some rural parts of the world are suffering disproportionately smallholders small-scale farmers are particularly vulnerable to climate change and there are over 600 million around the world small holders with farms under two hectares produce around a third of the global food supply central america's dry corridor supports a mix of small holdings and medium-sized farms sandwiched between the pacific ocean and the caribbean sea the area is prone to droughts [Music] israel ramirez rivera is a small holder in guatemala here climate change is making the dry seasons longer and more severe he depends on his crops of corn and beans but they're getting harder to grow last month [Music] nearly two-thirds of the small holders in the dry corridor now live in poverty nutrition foreign severe droughts in central america are now four times more likely than they were last century migration from guatemala to the united states has quadrupled since 1990. [Music] not all of this has been due to climate change but longer droughts would force even more to move in a three degree world annual rainfall in this region could drop by up to 14 percent at three degrees over a quarter of the world's population could endure extreme droughts for at least a month of the year northern africa could see droughts that last for years at a time but for some too much water will be the problem 10 of the world's population lives on a coastline that's less than 10 meters above sea level for these coastal inhabitants a three-degree world would spell disaster by 2100 global sea levels could have climbed by half a meter from 2005 levels low-lying cities like lagos would be especially vulnerable with up to a third of the population displaced and in fiji rising waters are already upending lives you can see the graveyard in solano water now due to this rising sea level and climate change [Music] the village of toguru in fiji is being swallowed by the sea barney dunn the village hedman has seen over half the village disappear relatives houses have been abandoned and family graves are now under water we've been asked by the government to relocate but no one wants to relocate because we have our great great grandparents down here in the sea this is the place we've been brought up in it's not easy to live [Music] past attempts to build a sea wall haven't worked but barney sees building a new one as the village's only hope if they do that maybe we can save whatever is left but if we don't have the sea wall then it will keep eroding and time will come maybe in 10 the world will be only road rising seas also mean storms cause more floods and many more countries could suffer the philippines and myanmar are just two countries that will also see an increase in storm surges in a three-degree world to escape many will move often to urban areas half the world's population already lives in cities almost a third in slums for them a three degree world could be deadly minara has moved to dhaka to escape the impact of climate change but life in the last 20 years the average daytime temperature has crept up by nearly half a degree days that approach 40 are now being reported and high so-called wet bulb temperatures are on the rise a wet bulb temperature is a measure of heat and humidity humans cool themselves by sweating but in these conditions when relative humidity is near 100 percent sweat doesn't evaporate well so people can't cool down even if given unlimited shade and water at a high wet bulb temperature the body can't lose heat and so it gets hotter and hotter and the body is designed to work at a given temperature and if it gets too hot inside you will die the human limit for wet bulb temperatures is 35 degrees celsius around skin temperature daca will have a much higher chance of reaching dangerous wet bulb temperatures if global warming reaches 3 degrees you can't really adapt to that you have to get out if the temperature is so high that you can't work you can't do hard manual labor outside for significant parts of the year then many places will become functionally no longer part of the economy jacobabad in pakistan and ross al qaima in the united arab emirates have already recorded deadly wet bulb temperatures more of the tropics and the persian gulf as well as parts of mexico and the southeastern united states could all get to this threshold by the end of the century climate modeling might show us the weather but it doesn't show us its other effects on society established migration patterns could change climate disasters may exacerbate reasons people cross borders within countries more people will move to cities in a three-degree world tens of millions of people a year could be displaced by disasters made worse by climate change when people are displaced by climate they may well go to cities because cities are the places that attract people from the countryside already a lot of people who can get to the developed world not only because the developed world tends to be less hot will give that a go [Music] as migration around the world increases there could be more competition for fewer resources water already a highly contested resource will be a focal point turkey's new illuso dam has reduced the flow of water into iraq china lays claim to rivers vital to india and pakistan the prospect of a water conflict makes people very uneasy how national tensions would exacerbate those sorts of reactions in a three-degree world is the sort of thing that no one should really want to find out i think you'd have to be incredibly sanguine not to think that the sort of climate extremes that we talk about in a three-degree world wouldn't lead some places to the brink of societal collapse those lucky enough to escape unrest would still have to adapt to a radically different world people can adapt to climate change in all sorts of ways one of the most obvious ones is air conditioning but other ways to adapt at a local or regional level i mean one of the most obvious is diversifying agriculture there are physical things you can do like sea walls the fact that people can adapt and that adaptation will reduce suffering doesn't mean that it will eliminate suffering suffering is built into this whole process of heating up the planet adaptation will only get the world so far the best way to deal with a three degree world is not to go to a three degree world that's why increasing efforts on mitigation are important it's why working towards negative emissions that could bring down the temperature after it peaks are important once you get to a three degree world you are in real bad global trouble the scale of change needed and the slow progress of government so far means three degrees of warming is uncomfortably likely unless more is done [Music] despite existing pledges greenhouse gas emissions are still set to rise by 16 from 2010 levels by 2030.