The Kanye West Paradox - When Confidence Backfires

(ethereal music) - Comments and actions have been unacceptable. - I have decided to run for president. I am Shakespeare in the flesh.

I just told you who I thought I was. A god. You gonna love me, you're gonna hate me, but I'm gonna be me.

In October of 2002, Kanye West, an up-and-coming hip hop producer at the time, had managed to convince a friend to lend him some extra studio time to record one of his songs. Kanye had no record deal, no one believed he could rap, and nobody wanted to give him a chance to prove that he could. It was only after months of hounding everyone he knew to give him a chance that one of his friends just happened to have an extra day of studio time.

A few nights before the planned studio session, after working until three in the morning, Kanye fell asleep at the wheel of his car and got into an accident that nearly killed him. - Hip hop producer Kanye West was injured when his car crashed in West Hollywood, Los Angeles early Wednesday morning. - He had a broken jaw.

As a result, his mouth was wired shut to allow it to heal. (Kanye mumbles) You know what I'm saying? - No, we don't know what you're saying.

(Kanye chuckles) - He was told that he probably wouldn't speak for months. In his hospital bed, Kanye began to write and work. He wrote a song called "Through the Wire," which was about his car accident, how it nearly killed him, and how he wasn't going to let it prevent him from achieving his dreams.

A few days later, he went into the studio and recorded the song, rapping the entire thing with his mouth wired shut. This became his first hit single. (upbeat music) What's mind blowing about Kanye during this period is just, in the face of constant obstacles and setbacks, he was relentless.

He walked door to door, stormed into offices of record labels, handing out demos to annoyed and unimpressed music industry employees. He had studio sessions canceled on him, phone calls from producers go unreturned, people laughed at him, ignored him, shut doors in his face, yet at no point did his belief in himself ever waver. - Man, I got aspirations.

I got big dreams. Before I had my car, I used to be walking to the train, practicing my Grammy speech. - He was going to be the biggest rapper in the world.

It was just a plain fact, and the rest of us, we hadn't realized it yet. - America, y'all had to see me. Y'all have to get used to this face.

- This is the part of Kanye's story that is frankly awe-inspiring. He demonstrated a level of persistence and work ethic that is incredibly rare, and it was driven by his unshakable faith in himself, his own talent, and his own potential. Kanye's confidence is legendary.

He's compared himself to Mozart, Shakespeare, even God. - Kanye means the only one. - The only one?

- Yeah. It's kind of appropriate. (chuckles) - He's interrupted award shows, called the President a racist, and proudly declared that he loves Hitler.

- There's a lot of things that I love about Hitler. - So it begs the question, when does self-confidence turn into self-destruction? Is extreme confidence a superpower that only a few winners have, or a ticking time bomb that eventually blows us up?

In other words, can the very trait that brings massive success also trigger huge failures? For decades now, psychological researchers have found a strong correlation between people who have a high degree of belief in themselves and the chance that they succeed. People who believe in themselves set bigger goals, work harder at them and longer.

Most importantly, they demonstrate greater resilience. They're better able to cope with failures, rejection, and adversity. (crowd cheering) - The return to glory.

- So does this mean that we should all just blindly believe in ourselves? Should we adopt delusional levels of self-confidence like Kanye? Well, it's complicated.

To help us figure this out, we need to look at another story, a story at the complete opposite end of the spectrum as Kanye's, but just as remarkable. (crowd cheering) - I'm really happy for you. I'm gonna let you finish.

But Beyonce had one of the best videos of all time. (crowd cheering) - All right, let's just get into it. (intense music) (keys clacking) In 1978, 2 teenage friends, Steve Kudlow and Robb Reiner, formed a band called Anvil and vowed that they would rock together for the rest of their lives.

For a brief moment in the early '80s it looked as though they might conquer the music world. They toured alongside huge acts like Bon Jovi and Whitesnake, playing hard rock festivals to thousands of screaming fans. - These guys are gonna turn the music world upside down.

- For us kids, it is like something we'd never seen before. (intense music) Yet, despite all of this, you've probably never heard of them. After a blazing hot start to their music career, Anvil quickly fell off the map.

For whatever reason, a major record deal never materialized, and in 1986, their manager stopped returning their phone calls. Yet Steve and Robb's enthusiasm never waned. While their former peers became superstars, Anvil was playing tiny club games, self-releasing albums that nobody bought, and working crummy day jobs just to pay the bills.

- Fuck, I'd rather be on a stage than doing this, you know? - They kept the faith into their thirties and then forties, even into their fifties. They insisted, quote, "Our break is coming.

We just know it. " - I think it's probably got more potential now than it ever has. - Anvil is the other side of the coin of the Kanye West story.

Same delusional level of self-belief, just without quite as much talent. And what gets missed by everybody is that for every Kanye West, there are likely thousands and thousands of Anvils. In science, there's a term called survivorship bias.

Survivorship bias is when people only look at the end of a process and assume that it is representative of all the people or groups at the beginning of the process. For example, Steve Jobs and Apple are often hailed as the quintessential story of success in the technology world. A college dropout tinkering in a friend's garage, launching a startup that would eventually transform into one of the world's most influential companies.

We hear this narrative repeated so often that it takes on a mythic, almost inevitable quality. - The prophecy is true. - Implying that anyone with enough drive and brilliance could follow Jobs's path and achieve the same success.

Yet when we focus on Jobs's rise to prominence, we naturally overlooked some less obvious facts. In the mid 1970s, there were dozens, if not hundreds, of small startup companies attempting to build personal computers. Ever heard of MITS, IMSAI, North Star, SCELBI?

Many of these companies were actually ahead of Apple in the '70s. Many of them were also led by charismatic and brilliant founders. The truth is, what made Jobs Jobs was likely thousands of subtle and tiny decisions that barely got recorded by history.

The lesson of survivorship bias is that it's easy to look at an outlier's success and assume that that person's common qualities are rare. In the case of Kanye, it would be to attribute his success to his incredible confidence and self-belief. Yet, as Anvil shows us, there are thousands of people with similar levels of self-belief that you've never heard of.

What Anvil shows us too is that confidence alone guarantees nothing. In fact, it can sometimes hurt you. Unwavering confidence can sometimes keep you chasing a dream that is never going to happen.

Anvil's tale is a cautionary contrast to Kanye. It reminds us that confidence should be accompanied by feedback and reality. If decades go by and the world isn't catching onto your brilliance, well, maybe it's not that the world doesn't get it.

Maybe you're just not as brilliant as you thought you were. But first, let's talk about the sponsor of today's video. Appropriately, BetterHelp.

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(upbeat music) (keys dinging and clacking) The philosopher Bertrand Russell once wrote, "The whole problem of the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves and wiser people are always so full of doubts. " The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias where people with a low ability at something overestimate that ability, while highly skilled people underestimate theirs. On the flip side, we have the strange phenomenon of imposter syndrome.

Basically, the evil twin of the Dunning-Kruger. This is when a highly competent person can't internalize their accomplishments, and they live in fear of being exposed as a fraud. They can have a wall of awards and still go to bed thinking, " I'm actually not that good, and pretty soon everyone's gonna figure it out.

" The crazy part is that it's incredibly common. Research shows that 70% of people experience imposter syndrome at least once in their lives. If you're feeling like a phony every now and then, odds are that most of your peers have felt the same way.

Even famous geniuses have confessed to this. Maya Angelou, after writing 11 books, including multiple classics, said that every time she finished one, she would think, "Uh-oh, this time, they're finally gonna find me out. " This is from a woman who has countless accolades, yet she still lives with constant sense of self-doubt.

So here we are. Some people with zero talent strut around like they're God's gift to the world, and some truly talented and gifted people feel like imposters. It's a perplexing paradox of human psychology.

And this is actually what is profoundly unique about Kanye. Not that he had supreme levels of confidence in the face of setback, it's that he had those levels of confidence and he actually was as good as he thought he was. Most people who have delusional levels of confidence are more like Anvil.

They're mediocre rock bands who think that they're one step away from superstar. And most people who have the talent of Kanye are like Maya Angelou, absolutely certain that everyone is just making one huge mistake, and at some point, they're gonna show up and take the Nobel Prize back. The key insight here is that our self-assessments are generally wildly inaccurate.

The Dunning-Kruger effect and imposter syndrome are opposite biases, but they teach the same lesson. Whatever you think about your own ability and your own place in the world, you're probably wrong. This is why blindly trusting your gut about how good you are can actually be risky.

If you're riding high on unearned confidence, you might charge ahead into a minefield. If you're mired in self-doubt despite being very capable, you might hold yourself back from opportunities you deserve. Neither extreme is good.

(keys clacking) Healthy confidence lives in the sweet spot between self-doubt and arrogance. It's having faith in yourself while staying grounded. It's being bold enough to chase big goals, but humble enough to know that you're not gonna have all the answers.

Easier said than done, right? Let's break down how to cultivate this balanced confidence in practical terms. First, embrace a bit of humility.

Humility is not the opposite of confidence. It's actually what keeps confidence honest. Being humble means you're open to feedback and aware that you could be wrong or still improve.

Think about it. A willingness to be wrong and hear feedback from others is, in many ways, the ultimate display of confidence in yourself. So the advice here is actually counterintuitive but crucial.

Stay confident in your potential, but humble in who you are. Second, seek reality checks. Don't exist in a Kanye-style echo chamber of your own greatness.

Find mentors, peers, honest friends who will tell you the truth. Constructive criticism is pure gold for growth. Another great counterexample of Kanye is Oprah Winfrey.

While she was unafraid to take bold risks, she continually emphasized the importance of listening and learning. - I had heard that you were really arrogant. - Yeah, I heard that too.

- Viewers saw her regularly open herself up to experts, audience members, and guests with a kind of grounded humility. She often acknowledged her missteps on air and openly sought advice to improve her show's content and approach. Over time, her self-belief never wavered, but it was always tempered by a willingness to adapt based on feedback.

This balance between bold self-assurance and genuine receptiveness to outside perspectives helped Oprah build a media empire and become the world's first Black female billionaire. Third, remember that self-doubt can be a tool, not a burden. A little bit of what if I'm wrong can actually go a long way to keep you sharp.

There's a concept in psychology called defensive pessimism where you envision possible failures, not to scare yourself off, but to actually prepare for the worst and strategize. For instance, if you're extremely confident you'll ace an exam, a touch of doubt might actually prompt you to study that extra hour, just in case, which will actually ensure that you do well. Fourth, cultivate competence.

One surefire way to justify confidence is to actually have the real skills to back it up. This is what gets missed with the Kanye story. He spent thousands of hours making beats, writing rhymes, perfecting his craft.

His confidence in music was actually backed by talent and ability. If you want confidence in a domain, you have to put in the work and bring the receipts. And fifth, balance positive thinking with critical thinking.

It's great to visualize success and pump yourself up. That keeps you motivated. But also play devil's advocate on your own ideas.

Ask yourself, "What if I'm wrong? What am I missing? " This isn't negativity, it's insurance.

It ensures you address weaknesses before they address you unexpectedly. Thinking through the worst-case scenarios and knowing how you'd handle them is paradoxically the best route to positive thinking and optimism. In the end, the Kanye West paradox is not so paradoxical.

Extreme self-belief can create extreme outcomes, for better or worse. It's not a guarantee of success. It's simply an amplifier of whatever skill and talent you already have under the hood.

The art of success is managing that self-belief with regular healthy check-ins with reality, because without that attachment to reality, you either whittle away your years like Anvil, chasing a mirage of a dream, or you end up playing small and hiding your talents from the world. Kanye once declared himself a god, the maker of his own reality. In many respects, we are all gods of our own realities.

So ask yourself, how will your perspectives about you define you? And will the world know about it?