Neil deGrasse Tyson Explains the Simulation Hypothesis

Chuck I've been public on the fact that I'm waiting for someone to convince me that we don't live in a simulation this is I've heard you say the arguments put forth have been quite convincing okay me and most of the best arguments are traceable to a guy named Nick Bostrom a philosopher at the University of Oxford okay here's the argument ready go ahead our computing power is growing rapidly right we create simulations of worlds we have video games with characters that are inside the video game right imagine a day where you can simulate a world

so perfectly with life-forms humans so well that you can recreate every single neurosynaptic thought you could have but now you're in the simulation on the computer so including the perception of free will well there you have it because then so now you would have enough computing power to imbue the Sims inside of the program with all of the human traits that we possess now correct not only our human trait not the one but the world the world itself right and you don't have to have all the world existing there at all times right that might

be an unrealistic amount of computing power right you just need enough of the world that they see around doesn't if they see around them so you want to start digging and yes I'll find I haven't put the earth there if there's a flag that goes up in the programmer and they say up need more earth stuff right put earth beneath you well you can keep digging it's like The Truman Show yeah well for example foot right okay cool does minecraft you can build right right oh that is mine crap right okay god that guy's a

genius so we went to the moon it's okay let's make sure line is there okay maybe that's why we can't travel faster than the speed of light because if we could we'd be able to get to another galaxy or they can program a program so much fun so the programmer put in that limit but in the limit because that's suspended like the weekend we can program so we put in a limiter who this me the light is a limiter so that you can't get to the next thing before we build it ah so let me

feel it that's good go ahead good Chuck all right so let me finish it so now so now that world Eve and they developed computing power right and they say we want to play video games so now we're gonna make a world so then they make a world and they have sufficient computing power that they invent right to create a whole universe within their computers okay and then they make a world and then they make a world all the way on down right it could be hundreds of thousands billions infinite all right so so far

this sounds like it's still work it's right so now close your eyes throw a dart which of these universes are you gonna land in the first one that's real or the gazillion that are not well yeah just statistically ok am i drinking when we're playing this darts game ok cuz then you miss dad to everything here there's something called Bayesian statistics where you're allowed to introduce information that you already have available to you even if you didn't measure it to be true so we establish the likelihood that one day will have the power to do

this right and then that factors into these statistics ok so this one in a zillion you're the real universe and 999 bazillion to one that you're a simulation simulation that convinced me yeah and I don't want to be convinced I didn't like it and I was just begging for somebody to to give me an argument that was cogent enough to undermine that entire reasoning and I just came across one oh ok ok it's a good friend mind rich got all right he was a colleague of mine back when I was at Princeton all right deep

thinker likes calculating the ends of things nice with Bayesian statistics he's heavily quoted in this book the doomsday calculation and William Poundstone is smart guy unto himself and I am now convinced now you're convinced are you ready okay go ahead what do all these units so here is what convinced me we are not in a simulation ok are you seated all right I'm seated are you put hold on I'm gonna hold ok all right what do all those simulated universes have in common they're simulations they can they have the power to simulate they have the

power to simulate them well ok yes that is they all make a simulation there's that power exactly to simulate themselves exactly do we have that power now no we don't know we don't which means that we can't send it in we can't send ourselves into the future as a simulation because Omega power we can't continue to change we're so either we are the real one right or we're the one in the chain that's still evolving to try to then make a simulation within their own world right so the odds of us being a simulation goes

from a gazillion to one that mean front to tip that the likelihood of her life right right it flips it flips 50-50 well I'm good with that that changes my life yeah yeah okay and no longer are your kids gonna say dad it doesn't matter in a simulation anyway no you got an argument remember but exactly a quick one great good maybe these simulators have a side activity where they like reminiscing about days before you could simulate that would be us so now we're donkey kong donkey car we're a classic classic game pic so maybe

we're just entertainment like a historical exercise right that's possible in principle however let's look at our own conduct with that regard okay I think of a movie as a simulation just for the sake of what's the kind of conversation which a kind of pen is ask yourself how many movies have been made in a time before we ever knew how to make movies relative to movies made in the era where we know how to make movies you can do the numbers it's small yes the Spartacus there's the OK Corral I Musketeers yeah those exist that

type of stuff okay okay if we are any measure of the incentives of creating simulations which all we can do with movies at this point then they might have some historical thing but there's way more interesting things and stories to tell in the era of simulations that exist post simulation right and that and that yeah so even if there are some period pieces that we might be still most of these would be universe is made after they could simulate themselves right our moviemaking habits or any indication of anything so the chances are we're not a

little offshoot like a little society could be just statistically it's probably right because many because we're throwing darts right and most of the stories they're gonna simulate are going to be the ones that they that are in the era of the time they could simulate themselves so that still brings us back to we're probably either the first or we're on our way to be in the next on our way to being the next that's correct one is a we're that's more likely than any other possibility here and so I'm so I can now rest well

at night so no simulation yeah I'm good I think I'm real I think you're real I think we're good well real recognize real so yes [Laughter] real recognize real there you go Chuck boom start talking yes I do [Music]