Why the Fall of Syria Checkmates Iran & Russia

for 54 years since the early 1970s the Assad family continually dominated Syria's government the most serious challenge to the family's long rule over the country erupted in 2011 when protests evolved into Revolution which evolved into full-scale Civil War then after nearly a decade of brutal fighting throughout the country that claimed the lives of around 600,000 people and forced more than 6 million others to flee the country as refugees the war entered into a tenuous ceasefire in 2020 that largely froze the front lines where they stood at the time which left the Assad regime in control

over most of the country's major cities and population centers then over time most of the world began moving on from the conflict in Syria and after years had passed with a ceasefire generally holding steady many began presuming that Assad along with his Russian and Iranian supporters had effectively won the war where that Syria had become a frozen conflict but then four years into the ceasefire generally holding steady it was suddenly Shattered by A Renewed Rebel offensive against the government that began at the end of November in 2024 and at the complete shock of just about

everybody this renewed Rebel offensive exposed the Assad regime in the country as an empty house of cards and the Assad family's 54 yearlong rule in the country was decisively overthrown in a matter of only 11 days since then this sudden and unexpected collapse of such a longlasting regime in such a strategically significant country has generated one of the 21st Century's most substantial geopolitical earthquakes the aftershocks of which will be felt far far and wide throughout the world as the players on the Middle East chessboard re-calibrate their moves in plays now that the board has shifted

so dramatically in particular the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria will most catastrophically affect what were his regime's two biggest International supporters Iran and Russia almost to the point of effectively checkmating both of their Ambitions in the Middle Eastern theater permanently and at the same time Iran and Russia's enormous geopolitical losses in Syria will be matched by the enormous gain that will go to both turkey and Israel the two countries who were the Assad regime's biggest Regional opponents so to understand what the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria means for the future and

how it completely screws over both Iran and Russia let's start with how it screws over Iran first and then move on to how it screws over Russia next first of all the Assad regime's rule in Syria represented the lynchpin in Iran's overall strategy for confronting their Arch Enemy the Israelis Iran's revolutionary government has always been opposed to the existence of Israel and has been locked in a shadow War across the Middle East with Tel Aviv for decades the assads in Syria the lacking Iran's particular ideology of islamist revolutionary fervor shared the exact same enemies as

revolutionary Iran had Israel the United States and Saddam Hussein's Iraq this led to Syria under Assad family rule quickly aligning itself to the young Islamic Republic as a mutual Bull workk against their shared enemies Syria became the first Arab state to recognize Iran's new revolutionary Government after 1979 and it was the only Middle Eastern State to openly support Iran during its brutal 8-year war against saddam's Iraq throughout the 1980s in the aftermath of that war Syria and Iran remained mutually aligned against their shared enemy Israel and so the assads in Syria granted the Iranians open

access to their country's territory in order to fly in arms supplies and advisers who were then able to travel into neighboring Lebanon where they trained up and built an organization out of lebanon's Shia Muslim Community that eventually became known as Hezbollah Syria's deep friendship with Iran and its space on the board made it an invaluable asset to Iran's strategy in confronting Israel effectively serving as Iran's most important land bridge towards Iran's most important proxy Force Hezbollah in Lebanon after the collapse of saddam's anti-iran and anti- Syria government in Iraq after 2003 Iran's logistical Supply route

to Hezbollah was even further opened up by land and air alike an a Iranian trucks escorted by friendly Shia paramilitaries in Iraq to travel continually through Iraqi territory then friendly Syrian territory directly to Hezbollah and Lebanon this was how over a span of years across the late 2000s and the 2010s Iran was able to arm and build up Hezbollah directly on Israel's northern border into a truly formidable fighting force with an estimated 50,000 Fighters and around 150,000 missiles and Rockets by 2023 which earned Hezbollah the recognition of being the most heavily armed non-state actor in

the the entire world and Iran's most valuable foreign asset hezbollah's massive fighting force and its Arsenal and missiles and Rockets effectively became Iran's ultimate insurance policy against the risk of a direct Israeli or American Air campaign against their own nuclear and Military sites or government infrastructure in Iran if the Americans and the Israelis ever decided to bomb Iran Iran could always just authorize Hezbollah to rain down their Hellfire upon Israel from Lebanon thus ensuring some form of mutually assured destruction and deterrence against Israel or the United States from ever doing so it was Iran's strategy

to put pressure on Israel and to keep any fighting between them far away from ronzo borders and thus Syria's territory was the absolute Lynch pin in this entire strategy because without it Iran would have no way to continue resupplying and supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon this is why when the Civil War erupted in Syria and the Assad government looked like it might collaps Iran and Hezbollah both intervene directly on Assad's behalf against the rebels with thousands of put soldiers and fighters in order to keep their Supply Route open against Israel so now after the Assad regime's

sudden collapse at the end of 2024 Iran has also probably lost that invaluable land bridge across Syrian territory that they've been able to reliably use to support hbon Lebanon with for decades ever since hezbollah's very founding to make matters even worse Hezbollah was also very badly bloodied by the Israelis during their war between September and November of 2024 right before the Assad regime collapsed Israel had managed to catastrophically infiltrate Hezbollah as an organization and through a series of major surprise attacks they were able to destroyed the organization's Communications and eliminated virtually all of hezbollah's top

leadership including hezbollah's top leader himself Hassan Nala thousands of hezbollah's rank and file Fighters were either killed or incapacitated by the Israeli attacks and by November of 2024 with Hezbollah effectively paralyzed and incapable of responding effectively the IDF claimed that the were Relentless aerial campaign against Hezbollah had successfully destroyed more than 80% of the organization's once feared missile and Rocket Arsenal indeed hezbollah's catastrophic losses inflicted by the Israelis led directly to the Syrian rebels calculating that they would be too weak to intervene in Syria to save Assad once again which contributed to their ultimate victory

in overthrowing Assad so rapidly without hezbollah's support So now with Hezbollah compromised and spent force with as much as 80% of their Iranian supplied missile and Rocket Arsenal destroyed and with the Assad regime in Syria toppled Iran will find it incredibly difficult and not even impossible to rebuild Hezbollah back into even a fraction of the Menace it used to appear to the Israelis prior to 2024 and with that Iran's ultimate insurance policy against an Israeli and American attack has been completely undone the loss of Assad in Syria also means that Iran has lost the only

UN member state that was truly aligned to it in the Middle East and with Hezbollah now crippled and firmly isolated from Iran and with Hamas being increasingly destroyed in Gaza Iran's entire strategy of putting pressure on Israel's borders and keeping the fight away from their own borders that they spent decades carefully putting in a place was completely undone in only a matter of days and then to make matters still even worse for Iran and Hezbollah the Israelis have taken steps since the fall of the Assad regime to increase their momentum and advantages even further on

the 8th of December the very same day that the Assad regime was actively collapsing and Assad himself fled Syria to Russia the idf's ground forces seized on the opportunity and advance from their positions in the Golan Heights to occupy the purple line the UN established buffer zone between the Israeli occupied Golan Heights taken from Syria 1967 and the rest of Syria that was established after the yam kaper war in 1974 since the Syrian Army withdrew from their side of the purple line as the Assad government was actively collapsing the Israelis were able to seize control

over it in some surrounding areas without even having to fire shot in total the Israeli seized control over an area in Syria about 2/3 of the size of the Gaza Strip and though it'll be universally rejected by the new Syrian government and by international law and despite Israel insisting that the new occupation is only temporary Israel will be very unlikely to ever give it up voluntarily because of how immensely strategically important it is for that the most important part of the purple line that the Israelis took over the advance was the Syrian side of the

summit of Mount Hermon at an elevation of 284 14 m above sea level it's the highest point anywhere in Syria and the highest geographical point in the region for 100 km by taking control of the mountain Summit Israel has opened up the ability to position their artillery there to be within striking range of the Syrian Capital Damascus only about 40 km away even more importantly in the past the Towering height of Mount Hermon outside of Israel's control also created a significant blind spot in Israel's Northern early warning radar defenses based on the summit of Mount

Marin at just 1,24 m above sea level the highest elevated Point anywhere within Israel's internationally recognized borders these radar systems struggle to see anything beyond the Towering height of Mount Hermon about 60 km away which stands over 1600 M higher up in elevation than Mount marind does as a result low flying drones and other aircraft from hezb or iron could take advantage of this blind spot to infiltrate into Israel's Northern airspace undetected while the cover provided by Mount Hermon enabled hezb Iran to establish their primary smuggling routes from Syria to the north of the mountain

and which also connected hezbollah's two zones of control in southern Lebanon and the northeastern beckov Valley with each other but now with Israel's takeover of Mount hermon's Summit all of these capabilities that hezb Iran have enjoyed ever since eso's founding have been effectively eliminated in time Israel will establish early warning radar observation and air defense systems on the mountains Summit that will enable the Israelis to see deep into both Syria and Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon like they never been able to do before sensors placed at the top of the mountain will be able to intercept

local Communications all of hezbollah's traditional smuggling routs from Syria will be openly within the IDS lines of sight while low flying drones and missiles fired into Northern Israel will no longer be capable of exploiting the mountain as a blind spot all of this means that even if Syria somehow remained friendly to Iran and Hezbollah which is extremely unlikely hezbollah's ability to receive resupplies and arms from Iran has still been severely compromised just by is seizure of Mount Hermon moreover Israel also took further steps after the seizure of Mount Hermon to expose Iran itself to a

major direct attack the likes of which it has never been before in its entire history over the following 8 days after the Assad regime collapsed in Syria as the country was incapable of responding the Israeli Air Force carried out an enormous bombing campaign all across the country that saw Israeli War playan striking Targets in Syria around 600 times it's since been described as the largest aerial operation ever carried out in the history of the Israeli Air Force and it relentlessly targeted the Assad regime's arms Depot weapon storage sites air bases Naval assets anti-air batteries radar

installations and weapons production sites through all of these attacks the Israeli Air Force claims to have completely destroyed the entire Syrian Navy and to have blown up roughly 80% of Syria strategic heavy weapons more importantly the Israelis also claim to have crippled all of the radar systems in Syria and to have dest destroyed around 90% of Syria surfac to air missiles and their accompanying launch systems the Israelis claimed that this entire operation was done in order to prevent the Syrian Army's assets from coming into the hands of an unpredictable new government in Syria that might

or might not turn out to be hostile to Israel but the real reason that the Israelis appear to have done all of that is to open up the door to a major direct attack on Iran itself some officials in the Israeli military have characterized this operation as having turned the whole of Syria into a so-called sterile Defense Zone with practically all of the Syrian Army radar early warning and anti-air systems destroyed by the operation the Israelis have essentially opened up the whole of Syrian airspace to their own unrestricted use for whatever operation they want to

pursue there before this the Israeli Air Force was highly constrained in the types of operations that it can actually conduct directly against Iran because of Syria and its close ties with Iran Israel has already acquired a total of 39 ultramodern F-35 stealth fighter jets from the United States and they've placed orders for another 36 more of them which notably makes them the only country in the Middle East that actually operates the F-35 now the F-35 stealth capabilities were Advanced enough that they could have flown across Syrian airspace undetected by Syria's older and largely Soviet era

air defenses but the problem is that they only have an operational range of around 1,200 nautical miles for combat missions the northernmost Airbase in Israel the fighter jets can actually operate out of is ret de Air Base here and it's about 630 nautical miles away from Iran's furthest west border as the crow flies which means that Israel's incredibly expensive f-35s couldn't fly through Syria's air defenses and attack Targets in Iran and also have enough fuel left over to return back home again in order to give the f-35s the range they actually needed they would need

to be accompanied by aerial refueling tanker aircraft now the Israeli Air Force possesses several of these kinds of aircraft from the United States but the problem is that unlike the f35s the tankers are big slow and not stealthy at all which basically makes them sitting ducks to air defenses and service to air missiles even to the more outdated Cold War air systems that Syria had this meant that for basically all of modern history Syria's dense concentration of air defenses eliminated the Israeli Air Force's ability to ever sustain a longrange direct attack on Iran while its

radar systems also provided the Iranians with an early warning system to alert them to any incoming Israeli aerial attack as well now however with the Assan regime gone and with all of Syria's radar and air defenses destroyed and sterilized Israel has essentially kicked down the gate that was defending Iran against a massive Israeli Air Assault for decades and with their neutralization of Hezbollah Israel has also eliminated Iran's biggest insurance policy that they had against a massive Israeli aerial assault as well Iran now has no credible deterrence to threaten Israel with to discourage them from launching

a direct attack and they have no capability to prevent the Israeli Air Force from flying directly to their own borders through Syria and Iraq it's been estimated by some of the Syrian rebels that it will take decades to recover Syria's lost military capabilities that Israel destroyed during their air strikes Iran itself has very capable air defenses and detection systems on their own territory but Israel now has the ability to use Syria as an aerial launching pad towards that a fleet of Israeli Fighters and tankers could use this opportunity to fly across Syrian airspace to the

Northeast of the country where the tankers could then linger in safety while the fighters continue on into Iran to bomb sensitive military and nuclear sites and even centers of the Iranian government then the fighters could return back to Northeastern Syria load up on fuel with the lingering tankers and then they could all return safely back to their bases in Israel again all of this could even give the Israelis the option of conducting a major aerial raid against the Iranian Capital itself Teran where they could seek to kill the country's supreme leader the Ayatollah Ali along

with other senior members of the regime as shown by Israel's aial bombing campaign against Hezbollah in the Lebanese Capital Beirut in 20124 Tel Aviv has shown that they are both capable and willing to eliminate senior leadership even in foreign capitals and now that they've just acquire the capability to do that against Iran too even without the external support to the United States they might decide that the window of opportunity they've acquired will just be too good of one to give up in October of 2024 the isra Air Force did carry out a major attack against

Iran but the Biden Administration in the United States pressured the Israelis into avoiding any attacks against Iran's valuable nuclear or oil facilities with the new Trump Administration and the White House next however these restrictions from America will likely not bind Israel in the near future Trump has repeatedly expressed his support to giving the Israelis a Freer hand in fighting Iran and its proxies in the Middle East and unlike Biden Trump is much more likely to approve of a major Israeli air strike against Iran now that they have the opportunity to do so and the Israelis

are probably now just waiting for the green light to do so with Trump coming back into office in Washington and his promise to return the policy of maximum pressure on Iran again with Assad's collapse in Syria hezbollah's crippling in Lebanon and hamas's looming destruction in Gaza Iran has never found itself more isolated and exposed to its enemies since Sadam Z rocki invasion in 1980 more than 40 years ago and their entire strategy of confronting Israel that they've carefully pursued for decades now has just been completely undermined all right now let's move on to the equally

catastrophic consequences for Russia that have resulted from the collapse of Assad in Syria too Russia and the Assad Dynasty in Syria had a very long and very mutually beneficial relationship after Bashar alad's father Haz alassad first rose to power in Syria in 1971 he almost immediately agreed to lease the port of tardis on the Syrian Coast to the Soviet Navy Tardis then became an extremely strategically important asset to the Soviets as it was the only Soviet Naval base located anywhere on the Mediterranean Sea it enabled the Soviet navy to use Tardis as a resupply and

replenishment base to support their operations in the Mediterranean without them having to pass through the NATO controlled Turkish Straits back to their own domestic ports on the Black Sea without Tardis the Soviet navy would not have been able to operate anywhere in the Mediterranean effectively and thus they wouldn't have been able to credibly threaten NATO's Southern flank from the Mediterranean while the base also served as a sort of Soviet counterweight to America's primary Mediterranean naval base in Naples Italy the Soviets also rewarded the assads in Syria for granting them the Tardis Naval Base lease by

lavishing them with military and diplomatic support between 1950 in 1991 a whopping 94% of all of Syria's arms Imports came exclusively from the Soviet Union including hundreds of fighter aircraft and artillery pieces thousands of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles and notably more than 13,000 serviced air missiles and 7,500 anti-tank missiles thousands of Soviet advisers were deployed to Syria to assist with the country's war against Israel during the yam kaper war in 1973 while Syria was the sole Arab State not to condemn the Soviet Union over its invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 their relations ran deep

and they continued to remain close after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s Russia remained the primary arm supplier of Syria while Syria continued to lease the port of tardis to the Russian Black Sea Fleet in 2005 Syria agreed to allow the Russians to expand their Naval facilities in Tardis in exchange for Russia riding off more than 70% of Syria's $13 billion debt that was left over from the Soviet era as Russia's relationship with the West began to deteriorate after their invasion of Georgia in 2008 Bashar al-assad reportedly even allowed the Russians to

transform Tardis into a permanent Naval base and a station nuclear armed submarines at the base thereafter Tardis likely be a critically important component to Russia's overall conventional and nuclear deterrent strategies since it certainly enabled Russian warships armed with longrange missiles to Opera in the Mediterranean within Striking Distance of NATO Targets in southern Europe and it likely enabled their nuclear armed submarines to operate freely within the Mediterranean as well and all without them having to pass through the still natoc controlled Turkish Straits back towards their home ports on the Black Sea to replenish and resupply after

the civil war in Syria erupted against Basher al-assad's rule of the country in 2011 11 Russia diplomatically supported his regime by using its position as a permanent member on the UN Security Council to veto multiple resolutions by Western and Arab countries that called for sanctions or military intervention in Syria while Russia dramatically stepped up the arms deliveries and made to Assad through their continued lease over the port at Tardis then in 2015 as it appeared that the Assad regime was on the break of imminent collapse in Syria with dramatic Rebel advancements Russia initiated a massive

full-scale military intervention in Syria in order to save Assad and to save their continued access to the port at Tardis around 20,000 Russian military personnel were deployed to Syria while the Russian Navy and Air Force spent years relentlessly bombarding Rebels and civilians across the country that killed thousands of people during the Russian intervention the Assad regime allowed the Russians to construct a new major air base for their aerial operations in the country here at H within Syria's Latakia province which became the nerve center for Russia's aerial operations throughout Syria and the Middle East by 2017

the Russian military intervention had largely stabilized Assad's position in Syria and in return Assad LED Syria to signing an agreement with the Russians that granted them a 49e long lease to both the Naval Base at Tardis and the new Air Base at H theoretically lasting up until the year 2066 in just about alanay the agreement also made both bases effectively Sovereign pockets of Russian territory within Syria Russia was granted sole Sovereign jurisdiction over both of the bases while Russian personnel and material at the bases were granted full legal immunity from Syrian jurisdiction in the aftermath

both of these bases they carved down in Syria became enormously critical assets to Russia's geopolitical objectives they enabled Russian naval and air power to be projected Beyond the Black Sea into the Eastern Mediterranean and into the Middle East and they most critically enabled Russia to expand their military operations into other theaters far away from Russia's own borders they enabled Russia to basically be able to leak Frog their military support from the the Black Sea to Syria and then to the forces of field Marshall halifa haftar and the Libyan National army during the Libyan Civil War

while they also enabled Russia's expeditionary Adventures using the Vagner group and later the Africa core in countries like Sudan the Central African Republic ner Burkina FAO and Mali ham and Tardis in Syria being the critical bases in the center between Russia itself and Russia's military operations in Africa which serve multiple important objectives by supporting khalifah haar's forces in Libya Russia hopes to disrupt Libya's normally large oil supply to Europe as much as possible and to build a military bases located in Africa itself to project power even deeper South into the continent by supporting the HED

governments in Mali Burkina Faso and ner Russia hopes to disrupt nier's large uranium supply to the nuclear reactors in France and to disrupt France's influence in their former colonies in Africa as much as possible a highly successful strategy that has contributed to the French being forced to withdraw their military presences from Mali bin ner Chad and senagal all just since 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine in many of these cases especially in the Sahel States and in Sudan Russian mercenaries find on behalf of government forces and stabilize their regimes and are then granted valuable contracts

on mining operations and resources like gold and diamonds the business model if you can even call it that that Russia and the Vagner group pioneered an established in Africa is basically that Russia flies in Mercenaries to stabilize unpopular or isolated African governments and then they fly out valuable minerals like gold and diamonds back to Russia that are hard to track and which enable Russia to evade the sanctions that have been imposed on them by the West after the invasion of Ukraine and it's the Russian bases in Syria that they secured after 2017 that made this

entire strategy possible especially the major Airbase at hame that enables heavy Russian cargo aircraft the ability to use it as a refueling and logistical Center between Russia itself and all of their operations in Libya the rest of Africa these were the reasons why Russia so heavily supported Assad's government in Syria and intervened so heavily against the Rebels on the country and why Russia's interest in Syria perfectly aligned with Iran and hezbollah's interest in Syria as well and why they all cooperated together there which formed the foundation for the modern close relationship between Russia and Iran

that's been evolving in other theaters too like in Ukraine but now with the collapse of Assad's government in Syria Russia's enormous investment into propping him up in the country now seems like it might go up in smoke and Russia's continued access to Tardis and hamim is more uncertain than it has ever been before if the new government in Syria revokes Russia's leases and access to the bases it'll be catastrophic for Russia's current strategy without the Tardis Naval Base the Russian Navy will lose the ability to freely operate anywhere in the Mediterranean Sea especially since due

to the ongoing War raging in Ukraine turkey has invoked the terms of the 1936 montro convention which prevents Russia from being able to move any of its warships through the Turkish Straits between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean or vice versa so long as the war in Ukraine continues Russia's ports on the Black Sea are completely inaccessible to the Russian Navy from the Mediterranean and if they lose access to the Tardis Naval Base they'll also lose their only port on the Mediterranean 2o which will basically eliminate Russia's ability to operate submarines or warships anywhere in

the Mediterranean for long periods of time without any nearby ports to use for resupply or replenishment which will Russia's ability to credibly threaten in NATO with warships and with nuclear armed submarines in the Mediterranean and the loss of the Haman Air Base means that Russia's ability to continue supporting their expeditionary operations across Africa will be severely crippled if not outright eliminated altogether with multiple cascading consequences in the event that they for sure do lose access to their Syrian bases the Russians in the short term will likely attempt and shift over as much of their military

assets as possible from Syria to Libya indeed even before the Assad regime collapsed in Syria Russia was busy dramatically expanding its military footprint in Libya for months throughout 2024 khalifah haftar the warn Lord Who currently dominates Eastern and Southern Libya has allowed the Russians to open and operate four air bases across his control territory in Libya in exchange for Russia's Military Support to his side in the country's Civil War which the Russians spent 2024 expanding and building up their aircraft and Troop presences in these air bases and haar's territory in Libya being critical to supporting

Russia's operations throughout the rest of Africa giving Russia an arc of continuous power projection that their aircraft transporting mercenaries and arms could take from Russia to hamim in Syria to the air bases in Libya and then to locations throughout the African interior and vice versa in the other direction with gold and diamonds and other valuable minerals if Russia lost their access to hamame in Syria though it would interrupt this entire Logistics Corridor by severing the link in the center rather than using hamim as a logistical stopover point between Russia and Libya Russian aircraft would have

to fly nonstop between Russia and Libya which would greatly increase their costs and complexity by requiring more fuel for each flight historically Russia has also used the Libyan Port of to BR under haftar's control to transport material and Personnel towards their air bases deeper in the country but now faced with the potential loss of the TARDIS naval base in Syria Russia may attempt a pressure of tar into allowing the Russians to expand their Naval presence into Brook into a more permanent Naval Base that could replace Tardis but even if he agreed it would take years

to construct the required onshore infrastructure to support as large of a fleet as the Russians originally had stationed at Tardis and it would also result in significant diplomatic push back from NATO and the United States who sort to support haar's faction in Libya as well so it's unclear if that would even be a possible move for Russia to pursue which means that with the loss of tardis and turkey obstructing the Turkish Straits to Russian warships coming from the Black Sea Russia will find it immensely more challenging to support and resupply their position in Libya by

sea just like how they'll also find it more costly and challenging to support and resupply it by air with the loss of hamim in Syria this is all very complicated because it means with the loss of the bases in Syria Russia will find itself coming to rely more on their bases in Libya and their relationship with huar while they'll also find themselves in a weaker position to support those bases and to continue that relationship and similar to the situation in Syria where Russia and Turkey found themselves supporting opposite sides during that Civil War turkey also

heavily supports the opposite side in Libya and backs the government of national Unity that's based in Tripoli in Syria the Turkish backed Rebels there sensed Russia's weakness as they focused everything on their allc consuming war in Ukraine and they launched their attack against the russian-backed Assad government confident that Russia was too distracted and occupied by Ukraine to intervene effectively now in Libya with Russia still heavily concentrated on trying to swallow Ukraine and with a probable loss of Russia's bases in Syria that will complicate their ability to continue supporting haftar's government could it be possible that

turkey confident after their decisive Victory supporting The Winning Side in Syria will also encourage the side they support in Libya to begin another renewed offensive against the Russian backside there too for several years since 2020 the Civil War in Libya has remained Frozen in place between haar in the East and the South and the Tripoli based government in the west largely because of an understanding between the respective outside supporters while the Syrian Civil War was also Frozen between 2020 and the end of 2024 the turkish-backed HTS Rebel faction of the country was holed up and

appeared to be cornered within Syria Zid Province 3 million syrians lived there for years under HTS control and the Turks dreaded the thought of Russia and the Assad regime launching a renewed offensive into idlib that had the potential of unleashing hundreds of thousands of refugees spilling across the border in a turkey thus if the Turks encourage their side in Libya to launch a renewed offensive against Russia's side then Russia can authorize their side in Syria to launch a renewed defensive against turkey side in idlip and Spark that massive humanitarian disaster on turkey's doorstep but now

with the Assad regime in Syria toppled and the government there in the hands of the turkish-backed HTS Russia's leverage over turkey that they used to have in idlib has been completely lost and so is the understanding between them and Libya meaning the turkey probably feels emboldened to press their advantage and momentum in Libya next if they end up doing that and Russia finds it too difficult to save haar next and Libya comes fully under a turkish-backed government too it would firmly eliminate Russia's military presence everywhere on NATO's Southern flank it'll free up Libya's oil reserves

for unrestricted export back to Europe again at the expense of Russia supplies and it will completely and irrevocably Russia's military operations in Africa that will sever one of the most important methods of evading Western sanctions with African gold and diamonds Russia cannot afford to let haar fall next after Assad but without Assad they'll also find it much more difficult to keep hanging on to him turkey has long supported the tripy based government in Libya because they agreed to become the first country in the world to recognize turkey's Maritime claims in the Eastern Mediterranean with the

victory of HDs in Syria the turkey backed it stands to reason that the new Turkish friendly government in Syria will also eventually extend the recognition of turkey's Maritime claims in the region as well and if they succeed in topping haftar in Libya next turkey will have suddenly secured three countries in the eastern Mediterranean that will recognize their Maritime claims in the region against the opposition of Greece Cyprus and Egypt and so the legitimacy of the Turkish Maritime claims will be greatly strengthened that is the incentive that turkey has to twist the knife into Russia's side

in Libya next and why I wouldn't be surprised if they at least tried and this would be even further advantageous to Turkey and detrimental to Russia for years following major offshore natural gas discoveries in the maritime zones of Israel Cypress and Egypt in the later 2010s an alliance of countries consisting of those three plus Greece Jordan Italy and France have pursued a major infrastructure project known as the Eastern Mediterranean pipeline or east Med if it's ever completed East Med would be capable of transporting about 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year to the European

market from Cyprus Israel and Egypt equivalent to about 3% of the eu's entire consumption of gas in 2023 the alliance also firmly rejects turkey's Maritime claims in the Eastern Mediterranean that would overlap with the plan round of the pipeline between Cypress and the Greek Islanders of creit while the pipeline would also completely circumvent all Turkish territory naturally then turkey is opposed to this Alliance into to the east Med project as it's currently envisioned the project has already been indefinitely stalled since the United States withdrew its support for it in 2022 but if Turkey could push

out ofar from Libya and secure both Libya and Syria support for their Maritime claims in the region turkey would Acquire The Leverage to try and force the East Med countries into rerouting the pipeline Overland instead through Syria this was never really a possible option until right this very moment because nobody would have routed the pipeline through Syria while it was still in active war zone if turkey and their supported side in Syria can manage to stabilize the country though they can present the option of rerounding the pipeline from Cyprus Egypt and Israel through Syria to

link up with turkey's already existing gas infrastructure onwards to Europe which would further undermine Russia's energy leverage over Europe in the process and that's nothing compared to another even larger possibility to further undermine Russia's energy influence in Europe that's been presented by the collapse of the Assad regime as well the largest natural gas field ever discovered in the entire world by orders of magnitude is the South pars North Dome Field located in the center of the Persian Gulf between Iran and Qatar this field is so enormous it alone contains more gas reserves than the next

10 largest gas fields ever discovered all combined the field became the foundation of the Qatari State's modern colossal gas industry and how the little country was able to become the third largest natural gas exporter in the World Behind only Russia and the United States however Qatar has always been restricted by how much gas they can actually export out of the field because the country doesn't have any pipelines that can carry the gas out to markets over land all of qatar's natural gas exports are done through liquefying natural gas or LNG exports instead where the gas

is super cooled into its liquid form and loaded on a ships with refrigerat containers for Transportation around the world to put the scale of the advantage of pipelines in a context Norway is currently able to export nearly as much gas asqar does abroad despite having reserves that are only about 7% the size of qatar's reserves because unlike Qatar Norway has a web of pipelines that they used reliably and constantly transport gas to Europe through if Qatar had pipelines that connected its World leading reserves of gas to Europe it could theoretically supply all of Europe's current

gas needs all on its own for an entire Century which would probably be long enough to carry Europe all the way through towards full decarbonization in the late 2000s turkey and Qatar began establishing an alliance between them across the Middle East owing to their government's Mutual support of political islamism in the region and in 2009 they first suggested the concept of building out a massive gas pipeline from Qatar through turkey and onwards to the market in Europe however in order for the pipeline to actually reach turkey from Qatar there were only two possible Geographic options

to choose between the pipeline could either be routed through Saudi Arabia Kuwait and Iraq towards turkey or it could be routed through Saudi Arabia Jordan and Syria towards turkey the first option through Iraq was immediately discarded over that country's chronic instability at the time and so the route through Syria was the one that became the most heavily pursued however the Assad government in Syria quickly rejected the whole idea and refused to consider routing the pipeline through their territory at all even though they would have received lucrative Transit fees if they had agreed to it and

they almost certainly rejected it because they were pressured into rejecting it by their pagor in Russia who feared how badly a massive gas pipeline from Qatar into Europe would reduce the own energy leverage over Europe in the process and this was another massive the less disgusted reason why the Russians so heavily supported Assad during the later Civil War in the country in order to guarantee that they would keep locking Syria space off the board for this pipeline into Europe guitar and so the guitar turkey gas pipeline proposal was indefinitely shelv and multiple geopolitical issues in

the region kept it Shel for the past 15 years Syria collapsed into a civil war that further kept its territory off limits Iraq continued to remain chronically unstable while Saudi Arabia even blockaded Qatar for years between 2017 and 2021 that kept its territory off limits to any potential Qatari pipelines as well but the Saudi blockade ended in 2021 and now with the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the installment into Power there of a government backed by both turkey and Qatar the prospect of opening Syria space on the board back up to the

Qatari pipeline to Europe has emerged once again and this is how the collapse of Assad in Syria could end up most catastrophically hurting the Russians it only took 2 days after Assad had fled the country for the Turkish energy minister alerson bayar to publicly suggest that the Qatar pipeline project could soon become reviv D once again were Syria to achieve its territorial integrity and stability which turkey will no doubt attempt in support even with military action against any remaining Rebel forces in Syria who are opposed to HTS if Syria is able to be secured and

stabilized in the future then the Qatar gas pipeline project routed through Saudi Arabia Jordan and Syria to Turkey and onwards to Europe could soon become an actual reality and if that happens Europe will never ever again have to buy a single drop of natural gas from Russia and the Kremlin will lose all of its remaining energy leverage over Europe there are some in Russia who hope that in the future after the war in Ukraine is concluded one way or another the Europeans will eventually return back to business as usual with Russia and resume purchasing massive

amounts of their natural gas again but if they had this pipeline from Qatar the Europeans would have the choice of just never doing that and never finding themselves reliant on Russian energy and susceptible to Russian influence and pressure again instead of Russia being the most important link to Europe's gas supply turkey is attempting to position itself as that most important link instead they are steadily becoming the invaluable Crossroads between the marketplace in Europe and the gas supplies located all around them they already across their territory carry pipelines into Europe from aeran Iran Northern Iraq and

Russia and in the future they may add these additional pipelines from Cyprus Israel Egypt and Qatar and in the process they will become the Arbiter of Europe's gas and they will establish the energy leverage over Europe that Russia used to have ultimately the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has been absolutely catastrophic for the Ambitions of both Iran and of Russia and the full implications for them will play out slowly over the next several years but I expect that they'll generally follow the course of events that I explained here the rebel offensive in Syria

itself that overthrew Assad and that was spearheaded by HTS and other turkish-backed rebels in the country proved to be probably the single most shocking geopolitical development of the entire year in 2024 hardly anybody was expecting that the Assan Dynasty in the country that had lasted for 54 years and which had survived through devastating blows during the past 13 years of the Syrian Civil War would collapse so rapidly in only 11 days after the offensive began but there are several reasons why that happened Assad himself was more isolated and exposed than he had ever been before

with with all of his outside allies that historically supported his regime heavily preoccupied with their own Affairs the four years of General common Syria that was maintained since 2020 probably led to an expectation in Syria of a return to normaly that Assad was never able to deliver on leading to a demoralized and increasingly unsupportive population in armed forces and in this video's next part I will explain all of this to you in full detail how and why Assad's regime collapsed so rapidly and what exact took place during those 11 days that the rebels stormed through

the whole country and forced Assad himself to flee into Exile in Russia but unfortunately due to the inherently violent controversial and recent nature of discussing this offensive that covers themes like terrorism extremism the Assad regime's extensive use of death camps and torture and rampant crimes against humanity this next part of the video explaining all of that to you will cause the rest of the video before it to become demonetized and age restricted which ultimately would mean the YouTube's algorithm would have never promoted any of this video to you and you probably never would have seen

any of it as a result but thankfully I was still able to produce the next part of this video anyway because of the power of this video sponsor nebula where you can go and watch the next 40-minute part covering exactly how the rebel offensive in Syria transpired and why it ended up being so unexpectedly decisive and victorious in outcome and this is also just one of more than several dozen exclusive fulllength re life or videos that you can only find on nebula in My overall modern conflict series there which can all only be found over

there because of all of their darker more controversial subject material that means that there's a bunch of other previous episodes that you can also go and watch right now that were very relevant to this video too like this episode covering the general overview of the whole Syrian Civil War from its start in 2011 to its ceasefire in 2020 this episode that focuses exclusively on the Russian military intervention into Syria this episode that concentrates on the big battle of the Civil War that was fought over Aleppo these episodes that cover the rise and fall of Isis

in Syria or this episode that focuses on the conflict between turkey and the Kurds of the region all of which will help give you an incredible amount of context into what just happened in Syria and why and with even more you also get access to all the other amazing exclusive content that's available in nebula 2 because the best part about this site is that it's jointly co-owned by all of its creators built by myself and hundreds of other independent YouTubers and P casters and because it's a subscription based service we all get to work on

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so much for watching