Bull Market Price Targets... This Will Be BIG

Ethereum in the 2000s is cheap. I think Solana in the 100s is cheap, and I think Bitcoin under 100K is cheap. I think a quarter million to half a million dollar Bitcoin makes complete sense, and I think that $10,000 Ethereum makes complete sense. I think that a $500 Solana makes complete sense, and I don't think those are that aggressive as targets. Welcome to BFT where we explore the frontier of Internet money and internet finance, and today we are exploring some charts, some technical analysis, some trading charts, and we're doing it with our friend Ledger.

Ledger, from Ledger cast, Ledger from "Up Only," Ledger is a friend of the pod, certainly, and whenever I want to look at charts, I need some help because I'm not a chart person. So we bring on Ledger to help navigate some charts. I present Ledger with four charts to kick the conversation off: Bitcoin dominance, the ETH/BTC ratio, the ETH/Solana ratio, and the Solana USD price. As we have all passed through the market turmoil of the Japanese Yen unwind debacle that kind of permeated rippled throughout all the markets, I think this is an opportunity to kind

of just check in, check in, and zoom out. I think these four charts that I'm presenting Ledger with kind of tell a story, and I want to hear his interpretations of them. Then he also takes over and starts to drive the charts as well, opening up the Dixie chart, the 10-year interest rate chart, as well as a few others. Ledger is a wise man; he's seen a thing or two in the markets, and so just always want to get his perspective as to where we are when we look at the charts and what this means

for crypto as we move forward. It's a pretty fun conversation. I hope you all enjoy it. Let's go ahead and get right to that conversation with Ledger. But first, a moment to talk about some of these fantastic sponsors that make the show possible, especially Kraken. If you have been compelled to make any moves as a result of this conversation, I compel you, I ask you to do it on Kraken. If you are entering or exiting crypto, hopefully entering, and if you want to do that, Kraken is the link in the channel. So, getting started with

Kraken today. If you want a crypto trading experience backed by world-class security and award-winning support teams, then head over to Kraken, one of the longest standing and most secure crypto platforms in the world. Kraken is on a journey to build a more accessible, inclusive, and fair financial system, making it simple and secure for everyone, everywhere to trade crypto. Kraken's intuitive trading tools are designed to grow with you, empowering you to make your first or your hundredth trade in just a few clicks. And there's an award-winning client support team available 24/7 to help you along the

way, along with a whole range of educational guides, articles, and videos. With products and features like Kraken Pro and Kraken NFT Marketplace and a seamless app to bring it all together, it's really the perfect place to get your complete crypto experience. So check out the simple, secure, and powerful way for everyone to trade crypto, whether you're a complete beginner or a seasoned pro. Go to kraken.com/slbankless to see what crypto can be. Not investment advice. Crypto trading involves risk of loss. Launching a token? Don't let complex legal and tax issues slow you down. Tokku provides specialized

support to optimize your launch and ensure that you, as a founder, and your team, and your investors get the most tax-efficient outcomes. The Tokku team understands the crypto space inside and out and will ensure your token launch is fully compliant while maximizing tax efficiency. Tokku can connect you with the best attorneys if you need them to make sure that you have the best advice, and Tokku can help to optimize your taxes so you pay the least possible amount of taxes while still maintaining legal compliance. With Tokku's guidance, you can concentrate on building your company while

Tokku handles the logistics. Token launches don't have to be complicated. Talk to Tokku to get a free initial token valuation. The Uniswap Extension is here. The self-custody wallet created by the most trusted team in DeFi, Uniswap Labs, designed to make swapping feel effortless. This extension lives in your browser's sidebar, letting you swap, sign transactions, and send or receive crypto without ever losing your place on the internet. Plus, with human-readable transaction messages, you'll always know exactly what you're signing. Navigate a multi-chain world effortlessly with support for 11 chains like Ethereum mainnet, Baser Bitrum, and Optimism. No

more chain switching or token importing. All your assets are right where you need them to be. The Uniswap extension is designed to level up your swapping experience with other Uniswap Labs products as well. Easily onboard to the extension using the Uniswap mobile wallet to begin managing your assets across platforms and take advantage of smooth, seamless synergies with the Uniswap web app. So go and download the Uniswap extension today by clicking the link in the show notes. Just another way Uniswap is helping you swap smarter. Bank station. I'm here with the lovely Ledger. Ledger, how you

doing today, man? I'm doing great. How are you? Good, good. Good to see you, dude. We always bring you on when I want to look at charts because anytime I look at a chart with just me and Ryan, I realize that it's embarrassing and I shouldn't be doing it. That, at least, at least with interpreting them, uh, with the recent Yen trade unwind that kind of just pummeled the markets, there's like an opportunity, I think, to kind of like zoom out and do a checkpoint of all of the crypto charts. Uh, so, I'm sharing on

the screen here four charts that I think are kind of Matic of maybe perhaps the current state of crypto. Uh, we got the Bitcoin dominance chart, which has been up only for a year and a half now. We have the eth BTC ratio, which has been down only for like two years, uh, Soul eth, which is painting new highs, and then Soul USD just because Salana has kind of been one of the meta focuses of this particular cycle. I think this is hopefully just like kind of an opportunity just to look at these charts and

get your interpretation as to what the vibe is from a man who knows how to navigate charts. Uh, so maybe, I know you always have pretty deep analytical takes because you are both following the crypto industry while also looking at the charts. When I present to you these four charts that are all right next to each other on the screen here, what's the first kind of thought that comes to mind? What's the first thing you think about? Yeah, I mean, I think first off, it's not too surprising that Bitcoin dominance has done well. I feel

like a lot of, well, let's back up the narrative just a tad. Like, I think a lot of people are wondering, is this cycle over and that kind of stuff? I actually think that the cycle, if you will, has probably hardly begun. Not to get overly bullish, just to say, like, what we've done so far feels more like the experimental stage and the in-between stage of what's probably a longer market cycle than we're historically accustomed to. Where I think you'll look back at the ETF launches and some of the, you know, the changes in ecosystem

as more of the beginning of a cycle. Or like an early cycle pause that feels, if you're trying to give it a corollary, that's more like 2019-ish than anything else. Whereas there's a lot of people that they might have gotten rich and then poor again or whatever on meme coins or something like that. Feels like a smaller meta to me within a broader macro crypto cycle. Like, when people think of Bitcoin making new highs or stuff happening, I don't know if you see this, David, but I see this, where, like, most people aren't really asking

me about crypto at all in my real life. They're not excited about buying crypto, they're not like, or even stocks in general, even though you've seen some amazing runs on, like, Nvidia and other things. I feel like overall, I would say, relative to inflation in particular, the real values of the stock market has really just been chugging along more so than in some kind of state of euphoria or anything like that. And I think, you know, Bitcoin's really been or crypto has really been pretty modest as a whole, and it's been more of a zero-sum

game within crypto markets. And so, some things have won and some things have lost, and a lot of things have round-tripped. What you're showing on the screen right now is more of what are the assets that have kind of showed up as dominant assets. One of the biggest things that I think you're presenting here with Solana is like Ethereum did in the last market cycle starting in 2020, Solana is essentially entering the big boy table, where I think we can safely define Solana as a major, not purely by market cap or total market cap, but

like development activity. People that care about it, people that care about it no matter what the price is. It's not like it survived a thing, it survived a hardship, like with the FTX failure and going from a price perspective going from 250 plus down to $8 and then has recovered. Forget whether it's in price exploration or something, it's just that it didn't really impact the fact that people cared about it and kept building on it. I think that makes, you know, that's just as important as market cap in terms of it becoming a major. So

I think you create this network effect, this perpetual motion type of thing where it is in a new arena and it's not a cathedral, like it's more of a bazaar. Whereas a lot of these defined L1s or L2 ecosystems are still like, well, hopefully if we build it, people will come. You don't necessarily have massive amounts of evidence of those doing so. And so I think like Sol, in particular, or even if you looked at so I mean Sol relative to anything, I think it's fairly well outperformed as its arrival, if you will. And then,

but within that inner meta of Sol becoming a major, Sol's not at all-time highs, you know what I mean? Like Eth is not at all-time highs, Eth is underperformed probably because we're not necessarily pulling in so many brand new people. That because Sol has gained. ETH is actually may like it may have gain but just not as quickly as Sol, so it's lost on a relative basis. Bitcoin has entered its own teenage years as a macro instrument to the Legacy Market, thanks to the ETFs. A lot of this is cyclical to me. I am really

bullish on all three of these assets, so seeing these swings and relative values is more fun than anything else. It gives you an opportunity to identify value. That's the framing I would use before we dig into the specifics. Let me throw some vibes at you that I think you'll agree with. Double check me if I'm wrong. Bitcoin dominance has been up for a year, ETH/BTC has been down for two years, Solana has been on the uptrend for coming up to a year. We are more in just this period where crypto people are doing insular crypto

things for the last 12 months. As a result, there have been some trends that haven't had any reason to change. The growth of Bitcoin dominance has been a big one. Solana's rise is the exception that kind of makes the rule. Solana had this idiosyncratic moment with the FTX collapse that oversold it by a large degree. Hence, while ETH/BTC has been down for two years, Solana/ETH ratio has been up for only one year. That's the middle of the lull market that has defined the last 12 months. There's no market cycle here. We are just in this

limbo period waiting for new people to come in and define what a new cycle might look like. Salana benefited from Mcoin Mania, maybe that was its yams type moment for defi emergence. I think Salana is actually doing well in capturing the DPIN market or the corollary to quasi-real-world assets or instrumentation. ETH is really establishing its dominance for big boy financial markets. Different block chains will continue to serve very specific purposes for speed, durability, and reliability. Platforms will continue to choose certain assets over others. I've been really impressed with how well Defi works all the time,

no matter what you throw at it. The compound got attacked recently but figured it out. Good stuff is happening on all chains, and I'm kind of anti-maximalist. I guess, uh, and especially so right now, um, but yeah, we're not, we're not, we're not seeing like the major narratives evolve, and like seeing outside stuff come in, and even VC volume is down, and things like that, you know? Like, despite price being good, these are all signs of this consolidation, you know? Early cycle or mid-cycle type stuff, not late cycle type stuff. And I think all the

late cycle doomers are wrong, basically. I think the other thing that's kind of worth noting as we zoom out and look at this, the landscape of the charts as a whole, is that Bitcoin has passed the 2021, uh, all-time high only twice. It first passed it when it hit $72,000 in March, and then it did it again when it hit $71,000 in May, yeah? Uh, but we haven't been able to sustain Bitcoin. Has not been able to sustain the all-time highs beyond that, um. And so, and then also, ETH, even with the ETF, even though

like a lot of the ETF juices are still left to be squeezed, ETH is at sub $33,000. Like it got up to $4,000 within striking distance of its old all-time high, but it actually never even got any closer than that, and now it's all-time high seems very, very far away. And like you said, Solana also just not at its old all-time high, uh. And I'm not contrasting, whatever the opposite of contrast is, alongside with the fact that we don't have any new users coming into crypto, those things seem to make sense, where we have like

the ETFs but no new users, and so therefore we only have like this being within striking distance of all-time highs, but no any net new price discovery. So, I think that there's like a lot of assumptions that people make, like, you know what, just because we have, we're going to have yet another four-year market cycle, you know, because that's how the halving works. Or whatever. And I think, honestly, I think the ETFs, for example, might have a bigger impact on demand than the halving itself, um, and it may be doubly so. But it also might

just be on the opposite side of that, headwinds in the broader global market are more better presented in crypto markets, because they in more traditional assets now. Um, therefore, like election stuff that almost always creates like uncertainty, and, you know, potential downside or kind of at best consolidation for a few months prior to getting certainty later in the election cycle. I actually think that's impacting crypto right now in a big way, especially because crypto is a policy item in this election in America. And I don't really think the election results will have a huge impact

on price. It may have a huge impact on policy, especially down the line, like beyond Bitcoin. Um, I think it could have a big impact on, you know, DeFi, and, and, and, and crypto policy, depending on who's elected, um. But I think seeing, I'm on a monthly chart right now, seeing like six months of consolidation after prior all-time highs, it may feel kind of depressing, but when you look at a monthly chart, like, there's nothing wrong with this, you know? Like, this is just totally normal. Stop being bored, like, go do something, you know what

I mean? Like, people will chop themselves up to death rather than just sit on their hands and do nothing, and do nothing, yeah? Like, they will... they will just freak out all the time. And when you just look at Bitcoin by itself, like, we are not outside the world in crypto, where you need this chart to be healthy for your other charts to be healthy, by and large. Now, you can have this chart in consolidation, and somebody is making like 100 x's on, like, a current meta, and that's great because they're just getting wealthier. They're

taking money from people that were worse at the game than they are, and then that money will be put into better and smarter hands, theoretically, in that kind of zero-sum environment. But then you're also preparing for what does it look like when broader markets are interested in this asset, um? And so all this correlates back to, to my mind, like, you know, macro stuff, like where rates, where is the dollar, where's all that stuff going on? And all that stuff is honestly good. People don't talk about that a whole lot, but like the Dixie looks

like it's got downside potential, which usually correlates really nicely with bull markets in crypto. Um, I have these lines that are essentially associated to where did bull markets begin? And if you look at this, it essentially looks like a mid-cycle. The Dixie is on a devaluing trajectory and in my mind, I, I don't even know when I drew this right here, this little, like, head and shoulders consolidation thing, um, because I haven't recorded a podcast in months, um, but like, um, not to brag, but it's like, I didn't need to record a podcast, um. I

think, like, I think you could see, um, the Dixie go down, like, sub 100 over the next couple of years and get back to that mean in the 90s. And that almost certainly is good for crypto, whether that, um, whether that that vertical delta is the same as these, like, these cycles are fairly similar in length and they aligned pretty well with, uh, crypt bull markets. You know, this is December 2013, December 2016, March 2020, um, November 2022, and, um, and, and, and this is this is potentially like if that continues to go down, I

think that's. Going to be good for crypto, dollar down, crypto up. Generally, in cycles, it's much harder. Yeah, it's much harder when that's working against you. And so, for listeners who don't know what the Dixie is, the Dixie (DXY) is an index of dollar strength. So, when the Dixie goes down, it means like generally assets go up. Yeah, yeah. And so, you know, when you compare that to the Bitcoin chart itself, like that consolidation feels more normal. Like, it aligns up actually with a lot of that consolidation in the dollar as well. And so, I

think the longer we consolidate here, it's not that bad. I do think if we go, if we like, if the broader economy, if the Soft Landing fails, which this is going to, might be a hot take for people. I think the soft landing is succeeding right now. I think the burden of proof is on people who don't believe that at this point. Yeah, yeah. Like, yes, are there struggles in the economy for sure. But, like, we're not in, we're not in like, inflation has not run away. You know, we got a two-handle on inflation for

the first time and time, I think this last week or something, right? Yeah. And so, can is inflation still a problem or prices still a problem? Yes. But they kind of always have been, even when they've been hidden, but it's not six, or eight, you know, it's not ten. We do face a situation where economies are going to have to decide, do they want to print money or control spending? And they're really bad at controlling spending. So, like we'll see, can they print money? And that's bipartisanship. The only bipartisan thing that anyone believes in is

like, well, we still have to do all the things that we want to do. So, let's just print more money. And so, I think that's going to be the result again. If they can do it without sending inflation right back to six and eight percent, then I think that'll be really positive for assets. Especially, you know, like disinflationary assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. And so, I continue to see very strong macro reasons for upside. And then it's a matter of, like, how do you play the cycles? What do the cycles mean? And you talked about

Ethereum earlier and I think it's just worth looking at EBTC again. Like some levels that I've had on here for a long time. And it was really correlated to when Ethereum came out of the bear market in 2018 and 2019. It kind of established these local highs and it's now using that as support. That is not bullish, you know, like this is below. I love the 20 and 200 moving averages, below the 200 moving average. Like that's the mean, if you will. And so, like ETH is weak relative to Bitcoin for sure. But it's nowhere

close to where it was at the lows at like sub 0.018. It's at 0.044. Do I think that it could go back to 0.14? Yes. But what's the narrative like? You need, yeah, you need, but you need real thing, you need real stuff to happen in ETH. It's a big deal. Like real, global financial stuff, difference-making applications and protocols that are probably at the scale of like large corporate, governmental, nation-state even products that are utilizing the Ethereum blockchain. For reference, the ratio of ETH to Bitcoin is approaching market cap parity with Bitcoin. You're saying, Ledger

is saying that it's in this potential simulation ETH could get equal to Bitcoin. Yeah, you could probably find some podcasts back when where David was freaking out, wondering if we were going to have the flippening. Two words you probably haven't even heard in a long time. Yeah, I haven't said that word in a really long time. Well, you didn't still, I did. And that's not what I'm banking on, but like those are the high for EBTC. I think what's more likely is can it breach this, like 0.075, 0.08 type of territory, and get back to

like 0.1 of Bitcoin's price, which is not the flipping, but it is a very, very strong asset. I do think that's possible. We are clearly in a multi-year downward trajectory. I'm not trying to polish a turd here. ETH has not been as good of an asset to own as Bitcoin or Solana. On its own, ETH is okay. Although, this may depress you a little bit. Like, if you look at the 200-week moving average on a weekly basis, which Bitcoin, except for I think the most recent cycle, always used as bear market support, because it was

always on such an upward trajectory. Ethereum kind of held it as support, but tested it several times. Ethereum looks like it's basically back in that range. So, it kind of looks like it's in this sad state of affairs. Like, it was in 2022 through 2023. Recovered really nicely. And this is against USD. But now, like that average has moved up. It's very, very weak in terms of just dollar level strength. Which it really shouldn't be in an inflationary environment like we've had. And so, you may look at that different ways. You may say, like, well

this really sucks. I should just buy something else. Or you may look at this as a relative opportunity for value. If you still believe in all the things that Ethereum is good for. Um, I think both are completely reasonable. Like, it's hard to fight a trend and if Bitcoin is strong and Solana is strong, then, um, you know, those might be better assets to own a majority of. Um, I don't think that means that ETH is dead and I think ETH is still a highly investable asset. Um, I think you need to be on the

lookout for what does a bounce look like, what do the narratives look like, and actually the, uh, "devalue trade" that you were talking about earlier that caused not just ripples but like tsunamis across markets and crypto, and a lot of people were like, "Oh, it's over." If you look at ETHUSD, it bounced off that 200week moving average and actually made a pretty nice weekly wick, um, which, in my personal opinion, means that there's some strength for ETH, like some native demand well above $2,000. It is definitely not pretty, though, like, you know, we went to

4800 at the top of the last market cycle, so it has to double from here to get to all-time highs. I do think we'll see ETH all-time highs, I do think the ETFs provide a real positive flow environment, but, um, and it looked pretty good going into the ETF, and then also, uh, prior to that yin devaluing meltdown, I think that the Grayscale, ETHY stuff getting out of the ecosystem is extraordinarily healthy, like you're kind of shedding off the, um, the bad stuff right now, you know? Like, and that's good. So, you get rid of

the ETH problem, and then you have more of a natural "Hey, people with ETF access with larger pools of money." People have larger pools of money in their retirement accounts where they have ETF access, oftentimes, than they do in liquid— what am I going to put in Coinbase today? It's really hard to convince yourself to go put something either on-chain in Coinbase, Gemini, like whatever your exchange of choice is. And people do that in smaller amounts of money than they're willing to roll their retirement accounts with. Like, a lot of people our age have figure

retirement accounts that they would totally buy crypto with from those retirement accounts. I think people are discounting that real buying power that exists and people will buy those ETFs and I think that will be very good for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, but you got to you got to shed your problems and ETH was a problem, you know? Like, you need people to be able to redeem against that discount that existed and whatnot. So, I think like with Bitcoin, we're seeing that happen with Ethereum, that wick that we experienced in ETH where it touched the 200day

moving average from the Yen carry trade—unwieldy, 200week, excuse me— like, I think a large part of that, the size of the wick was coming from junk capitals like dumping of ETH from the perceived, like, leverage that they had, which was a big deal, by the way. That's a huge deal. Fun fact, turns out it's actually not Jump Capital. The labels on the addresses are mislabeled but everyone thinks that it's Jump Capital. But somebody had a lot of leverage that they had to unwind at the bottom and this also happened with the Three Arrows Capital liquidation

when everyone found out that they went bankrupt. They were dumping st. ETH into the bottom of the market in a very illiquid market and you also saw the ETHBTC ratio just take a huge pummeling down then back then and then also kind of rebound up because ETH is this capital asset that's used as collateral for leverage. When they are cascading liquidations in the market, ETH takes a larger brunt of the force than other assets simply because it is the collateral. And so that's, I think, why that wick is so big. But also, to go back

to what you were saying with the trend, the trend is not ETH's friend at the moment. Right now, the trend is Bitcoin's strength and Solana's strength. And I think that, like, we, if you are an ETH bull, you're kind of asking for a phase change in the market because the current market phase, whatever phase we're in, is not in ETH's favor. So, whatever new retail coming in, new users coming in, new part of the bull market cycle that begins perhaps now, perhaps later, I think if you're an ETH holder, you're just asking for something to

be different because the trend is not going to run ETH into the 200week moving average again, probably. Is that a fair take? Yeah, yeah, it could for sure. Um, and I, yeah, you're looking at when do I want to call the bottom of this trend or, maybe more conservatively, like, tack on for the upside as the trend proves that it's reversing. Um, and I don't know when that's going to be on ETHBTC because I think generally BTC is pretty strong and I, I like—I would have no problem owning Bitcoin. And so, predicting it relative to

Bitcoin, I'm not necessarily prepared to do. I actually think Solana has been softening a good bit and I think that's heavily correlated to the inevitable unwind of the meme coin stuff and people troll me all the time, like—and I'm actually trolling them often times when I post like a WHIFF chart and you know I started back when I was like good luck with that. Or whatever, and people hated on me. And then every now and then, like pretty much any time I see it, it's getting dumped over like a weekly trend. I would tweet something,

yeah, I would tweet something, and they'd all get mad at me. And like, I really don't care what happens with WHIFF, but like, you can't tell me this is strong. That is a brutal chart. Yeah, um, so when I first did it, it was in this consolidation and then it pumped. And so people are trying to countertrade me or whatever whenever I tweet stuff like that. This is not strong. And I think like, this is representative of the meme coin market. I would, in an environment where you have a lot of real-world value for these

maj that we've been talking about, I just have no desire to be like, "Oh yeah, I can get a 10x on this too after somebody else got 100x already and they're distributing into this chart right now." What you see on this chart is people distributing their wins, like, or capitulating on their losses because they thought they were early but then realized they weren't early. And so, like, WHIFF people, or whatever, and WHIFF is held up way better than other meme coins. Like, tons of meme coins are down 95% plus already. They don't want to tell

you that 80% of their portfolio is in other crap and 20% of their portfolio is in WHIFF and, you know, they're giving me a hard time because, like, if I make a tweet about WHIFF when it's here and I say how bad it looks and they're like, "Ah, thank God Ledger called the bottom again and I can be happy." And then they start messaging me saying how dumb I am. And guess what? It's every time they do it. It's like up here, and there's always a top. So, like, just counter-trade everybody is the point. Like,

just look at my tweets when I do that. By, by WHI. And, um, and then when people start saying, like, "Haha, I told you so," then dump it. That's the, that's the how to play the dual counter-trade. Be a double agent. Um, but this looks like crap is my point. And right, um, you know, this, this was the game on Solana. And so I think some of that weakness until some of these deep-end ideas and other ideas gain their own native traction, which I think they will. Um, and I think Solana is fantastic. Like, I

think the weakness in meme coins will affect Solana itself. And I like Solana a lot. Like, I don't necessarily want that to be true. Um, I just, I just think it will. And I think that you see it right here. Like, this is consolidation, sure, but it's, it's, I see weakness. Like, this is the 200-day moving average. It's dropping below that. It just doesn't look very good to me. Um, the 20-week moving average, it's dipped below it. It is in a consolidating range, but like, if Sol went back to like sub 100, it wouldn't surprise

me at all. And a lot of people would probably get pissed off about me saying that. And they can troll me in the comments down here below. Um, and so I just think that, I think that's not an unlikely scenario. I'm not saying I want it to happen. I'm not guaranteeing that it will happen. I will say like in this range here, it needs to, it needs to like abide by that wick that it had during that meltdown that we had. Because what I would like to see for Solana strength would be kind of bouncing

off this, continuing to consolidate and creating this really exciting type of consolidation that's more at the highs, not at the lows of the range so that you could have, you know, a breakout opportunity that would take it to all-time highs. Um, I just think that might take 'till like after the alection and of year. That's that tends to be a good time for, um, like strong upside. Um, it's end of year post-election and then have a really strong 2025 like price discovery in 2025 across crypto assets would make sense to me. Trying to predict like

where is that going to begin? It wouldn't be surprising at all. It's August, August, September, October, November, you know, you've got, is it under 100 days now to the election? Right around, yeah, around then, yeah. Mhm. Yeah. It wouldn't surprise me at all if 60 to 80 of those days include more chop on a relative basis where Solana underperforms Bitcoin and Bitcoin itself chops as well, um, wouldn't surprise me at all. And it just happens, it happens every four years and people act surprised about it about an election. Um, and right, if we add to

our kind of potential for weakness argument, uh, Sol ETH has had these kind of four drives now. This is still strong here, no doubt about it. It just wouldn't surprise me if it, like, went back towards the bottom of the range, um, and so, and Sol BTC kind of similar, just in the middle of a range, um, also 200-day moving average here, like, those are just the things I would be looking for if I was doing more, like, swing type trading and trying to in short-term capital gains positioning, trying to figure out, would I rather

own Solana, Ethereum, or Bitcoin right now? Personally, Solana is not, it's not first on my list. I think it's probably third on my list. Um, that's also how it is in my own. Portfolio. I guess I didn't think about it that way, but um, I just, I just think there might be a little bit of relative weakness, um, that can be disproven by price discovery, like price discovery or relative price discovery, like a breakout of this range against Bitcoin, you know? I'd have no, I'd have no problem on Solana, like buying something like that, but

let it prove it, you like you don't have to be a genius, you know? Like, why bother with the consolidation, um? And so I think it's kind of a boring time, like to be honest, in terms of, uh, in terms of crypto stuff, um, that's not a bad thing, um, and I think you just, you're looking for kind of relative trades. We need to see considerably more strength in Ethereum, we need to see um, more strength in Solana. I think Bitcoin looks the best of all of them right now, but it too is under its

200-day moving average, um, and is just in this choppy range that I think we can expect to continue to some degree. And if you're not prepared for that potential outcome, like what if Bitcoin goes to 40K? Well, there's your, that's definitely your scenario for Solana under 100, Eth under 2K, um, and I'm not trying to be a bear, but that would wash out a lot of leverage, it would wash out a lot of like specula speculation that occurred in meme coins, um, all those things would get completely destroyed. Um, I don't think it would be

that bearish for the majors in the sense of, I think those would be good relative values to buy at, um, and so how do you want to position yourself between now and the end of the year, um, in a place where you can take advantage of those opportunities, because I think there's going to be some really great ones. I do, I think the pattern that a lot of people are seeing is that relative weakness that you're seeing in Solana, the clear weakness and the trend of weakness that we were seeing in Ethereum, and then the

lack of a breakout that we're seeing in Bitcoin, and especially in that Bitcoin chart, that monthly Bitcoin chart where like if Bitcoin is consolidating below all-time highs, uh, consolidating below all-time highs is like kind of sick for like a little bit, but it's been a really long time, and I think in the crypto markets with the very impatient crypto traders, crypto investors that we have because of these four-year cycles, if it's not going up, then that's a risk. Like, consolidation, yeah, looks like it's like, well, if it's not going up, it's going to go down.

And if it doesn't go up soon enough, then like, I think the fear is that people get impatient and they start to assume like, "Oh, the cycle's over, it's time to sell and get out." Well, it's especially depressing when you're underperforming the stock market, um, oh yeah, for sure, which is, which is, uh, occur L Yeah by a lot, like look at the wick that stocks created relative to what Bitcoin created, um, and what's crazy is it's not just the stock market, like if we go to, um, gold for example, like on a chart now,

percentage wise, I don't know how severe it is, but like on a chart, gold looks freaking great, like gold, gold broke out, yeah, it's in price discovery and I'm sorry if that hurts your feeling, it's just true, you know, like, uh, it had a four-year four-year consolidation and now has been doing very nicely for six months straight, um, I think that's a, a good thing for Bitcoin to just rip it to pieces once it actually goes, but it's lagging like crazy right now, um, and yeah, um, you know, one other element, you know, you talk

about rates and whatnot, I think seeing consolidation in rates as well, which was absolutely a headwind on market on, on, uh, crypto, like, I think that, uh, if the 10-year goes back down to the mean which is, uh, about half a half a percentage below where we are now, um, that would, that would be, uh, really good for crypto. Um, so if you can do all that without actually going into a full-on recession and do it as a soft, the soft landing, everybody in crypto should be rooting for the soft landing because when you're the

laggard in the room, if the market, if the economy as a whole turns and you never pump like you're just the sad one that underperforms on the downside. So like you need to be rooting for that soft landing, pretty much, um, and and right now I think there's a lot of potential for it. I mean even the NASDAQ, which has had some weakness but it looks freaking great, like on a relative basis, like this is much better to own, um, than than crypto over the past year or so, um. Earlier you said, um, that like

we're entering or like the ETFs kind of broke the back of the four-year cycle, uh, and I'm starting to also get behind this idea that like one of the reasons why I think, you know, the average crypto speculator, crypto trader, crypto investor like emotionally feels bad is because we were expecting the four-year cycle and we're not getting it and so expectations are dashed, but like we also do have the fundamentals of the ETF flows which are not like crack cocaine, it is a steady trickle of just like, you know, good solid like, you know, good

dopamine, like a slow it's, it's slow right, it's like we're not jumping the gun here, like we're just, it's, it's. To be slow, but I don't know if you saw—if you've paid attention to the numbers on this—but all the top four or something Bitcoin ETFs are like the top four ETFs in a long time, right? Yeah, and the next one is Ethereum. Like, Ethereum is behind, I think, the top four Bitcoin ETFs or something like that, but it's better than every other ETF that's come out. In the last year, at a minimum, and maybe multiple

years. I can't remember. So, there is demand for those ETFs, and I think that is amazing. Like, that's amazing. You're seeing kind of the proof in the pudding, but the S&P, the NASDAQ, they benefit from these just every single month. People DCA, DCA, DCA—straight out DCA, yeah. And that's what we're presenting an opportunity for crypto to be part of that basket, and that's a powerful basket. Like, if you bet on as, especially as people are not Boomers investing heavily in their retirements, you know, Millennials are about to have their peak earning years. And Millennials are

very open to crypto. Don't forget these things and don't live on these day-to-day timelines. Like, for once in your life, think on a 10-year spectrum and what that means. I absolutely believe somebody that's putting $100,000 in a market now is going to have seven figures by the time they retire if they're in their 20s, 30s, and 40s. And I think that is an amazing opportunity. Don't get distracted and burnt out on things, and identify the fact that you have a 10x plus opportunity sitting in front of you. And I think that's what we have in

crypto markets. It's even with Majors, like, not even talking about all the stuff down the line. And I think that Ethereum in the 2000s is cheap. I think Solana in the 100s is cheap. And I think Bitcoin under 100K is cheap. Like, I'm sorry, that's just how I feel. So, I think a quarter million to half a million dollar Bitcoin makes complete sense, and I think that $10,000 Ethereum makes complete sense, and I think that $500 Solana makes complete sense. And I don't think those targets are that aggressive. Yeah, as H Chris Biski and many

others say, don't mess it up. And I think people very frequently mess it up because they think that these numbers are coming in four months or three months, too short of an amount of time. You and I have been here for a decent amount of time, and one of the reasons that we're still here is that we generally try to keep a level head. Keeping your leverage down, stop using leverage. You really suck at it. Like, 99.9% of you absolutely suck with leverage. I would much rather see people go into crypto with conviction if you

will. I would much rather with spot in Majors, see somebody put 80% of their net worth in crypto than to put 10% of their net worth in crypto but then go leveraged traded all the time. You will lose your 10% and get disenchanted, but if you put 80% and you're in spot and you averaged in over time during a time like this where you're either in consolidation, a bear market, whatever, I feel very confident in somebody feeling good about that decision over the course of years. I feel very negative about somebody that thinks they're going

to turn $1,000 into $10 million using leverage and buying the coin of the day. Almost everybody that in my life says they want to get into crypto, they struggle to not do that. They just can't help themselves, and they want to make stuff that's happening fast, but feels slow day. To, they want it to happen faster, they want it to happen now. When it's happening fast, but you've been going slow, you'll know and you'll be able to react. You know when 2020 DeFi happened, when 2021 NFTs and all the melt-up on all the things happened,

it happened fast and we all knew. We all knew, "Oh my gosh, the train is going, and it's time to bet more." Like, you just know, but it's because we were already there for years, and you felt the difference in real-time. I do remember that moment where Eth broke out from being—it broke out higher than $330, which it hadn't for like two years, and it hit $425 or something like this, and I had never seen a time on Crypto Twitter and all my chat groups, all my Discord channels, all my Telegram servers, everyone was like,

"Oh yeah, it's on." And we were all right. It was consensus, and we were right. And the next thing that happened was Eth went from like $400 up to $11,100 over the next like six weeks. Same thing with—I think it was, yeah, right there. Like, we all knew it, everyone knew it, and I have never felt like that ever again since that moment. Well, and what's funny is, if I remember correctly, like, DeFi summer mostly happened right here when Eth was pretty sideways, Eth marked up, and it killed DeFi summer for a hot second, and

then it consolidated again. There's a continuation. I think of some, or actually Bitcoin ran like crazy while Eth went sideways right here, and then you hit the end of the year new year. By the way, look at this. This is an election year. Um, and yeah, a lot of that uncertainty goes away. Just, it just went bam, you know, just like, absolutely nuts. And when you feel these breakouts happen, this is on a weekly chart, but on a daily chart, if you look at charts all the time, which most of the people watching this probably

do, you open your phone, you don't have to look at the chart, you just see the price, you feel it happening, and it's like, ah, we're down today, but then, oh look how fast that recovery was, or we're up, like, we're up today, and it's kind of relentless, or it's steady. You just feel this bubbling up, like it's just gradually, gradually, gradually bubbling up, and there's this strength that you just feel in the market because you look at it every single day, and then when that lid blows, you're just not surprised. You're not surprised at

all. And it's time in the market to let you know what that feeling is like. I do not feel that in the market right now personally. Like, I feel a willingness to be patient, but I don't feel like the lid's about to blow. I feel, if anything, like just expecting more of the same over these next couple months. Would I like to start feeling that water to boil a little bit prior to maybe some election-centric resolution for the market? Yeah, I'd love that. But if we just nuke between now and the election, it wouldn't surprise

me. 'Cause that's the opposite, right? Like, that's the water, like, emptying out. You kind of feel it. You can, like, feel the liquidity in the market leaving. You can feel pain or tremors that exist from a macro perspective. Or things like the fake jump blow-up. Like, whatever that was, like, that's one of those types of tremors that's the opposite of what we were talking about. So if you're patient, and if you spend time in the market, if you pay attention, if you don't lose everything doing dumb stuff, then you will be there in time to

feel when it's real. And that's when you start making aggressive moves. That's when David and I are texting each other about, random, like, projects that we think are interesting. And like two weeks later, they've doubled in price. And some people, maybe you felt that on, like, meme coins or some of these smaller metas. But like, those were small metas. Those are not big level metas, in my opinion. Yeah, I think that's right. Wise words from Ledger, who is a wise man. Ledger, thank you for coming on the show and walking through some of these charts.

I couldn't have done it without you, my man. Yeah, I appreciate you having me. I like my podcasting seal legs are not there right now. Yeah, we got to keep you sharp for when you eventually return. Will you ever return? Will Lercy come back? Will Up Only come back? I don't know. I don't know in what formats. But yeah, I'll be around. I mean, it would be equal to all these mistakes I'm talking about. For what we'll say like people have been in the market for only a couple years or whatever. Equally stupid would be

to have been here for what's it been, David? Like seven, eight years and then just be like, oh, you know, now that this is a major asset, I'll just leave. I just, I just want to go a little slower, you know? Like, I want to make more measured moves. I have that has been the sentiment of the cohort that I've been in. Like, I've been feeling it, Ryan's been feeling it. I know Anthony says Onuni was just like, yo, like you can't keep on just like slamming your head into your screen for like six years

in a row. You need to have like a hobby or something. You need to have like, you know, touch grass and be real. I moved fast for a long time. Like, I'm a, I like to trade. Like I told you beforehand, like I need in fact, if I'm going to cash out, I need to be pretty liquid because I just want to buy stuff. I want to trade. If I'm liquid, if I'm overly liquid and like this last year was, this is pretty embarrassing, but it's like one of the only times in my entire crypto

life that I had long-term capital gains. Like if I really never done this before, but it's because I like, I, I, I, I am best in kind of a swing trade type of format. Longer than a week often times longer than 30 days, but probably less than 90 days or 180 days. Not going like completely degenerate or anything, but swinging between things or like major ideas that I have. And so, you know, there were a couple of times where I had long-term capital gains, but like when the market's really hot, I'm probably not like, I'm

going to be bouncing around a little bit. Outside of minor portions of my portfolio, but like, I hardly traded at all between mid-2023 and mid-2024. Like hardly at all. And I just, I kind of made some choices and those choices were fine. And I had long-term capital gains for the really the first time in. Quite a while! So, hey, congratulations on the long-term C gam, brother. Yeah, thanks, other than like angel investments and stuff, those tend to, those are always long-term. But, like, for liquid crypto to have long-term capital gains, it's -- it has not

happened to me a whole lot. So, I need it makes sense because the Traders have their moment during bull markets when there's high volatility. And if anyone has experienced a bull market in crypto, time compresses. In bull markets, like one week, in a bare market is not the same as one week in a bull market. In a week in a bull market, like 17 things are going to happen. Uh, in the bare market, you know, only a few things happen. Yeah, and if you look at kind of where charts are, like, it wasn't a bad

decision to not do anything for a year because, like, we had consolidated into last summer and we had a pretty, pretty great year. And so, I was pretty happy and um, and so I actually took some long-term capital gains. And now I'm kind of in a "let's see what's next" type of mode where I have flexibility to trade. And, so yeah, I mean, yeah, that's like the flip side of saying go slow, but I want to continue to go slow or slower, slowish but I'm definitely going to be around. I guess to answer your question.

Sorry to prolong the exit there. No, not at all. And, also, going slower I think that's what's happening to, like. That's what's happening to crypto. Like, we're slowing down, we're slowing down. The ETFs are slower, the FED is going to cut rates probably slower. That's kind of my prediction is like the fed's not going to whiplash us anymore, they learned their lesson. Uh, I think everything is kind of going to slow down from like these crack cocaine four-year cycles and they're going to smooth out to, you know, some more sustainable forms of caffeine, I would

say that's how I'm going to phrase it. Works for me, works for me as well. Thank you so much for coming on Bankless Nation. You guys know the deal, crypto is risky, you can lose what you put in, but nonetheless, we are headed west and we always will be. This is the frontier, it's not for everyone, but we are glad you're with us on the Bankless journey. Thanks a lot. New projects are coming online to the mantle layer 2 every single week. Why is this happening? Maybe it's because Mantle has been on the frontier of

layer 2 design architecture since it first started building Mantle DA powered by technology from Igen da. Maybe it's because users are coming onto the Mantle Layer 2 to capture some of the highest yields available in DeFi and to automatically receive the points and tokens being accrued by the $3 billion Mantle treasury in the Mantle reward station. Maybe it's because the Mantle team is one of the most helpful teams to build with, giving you grants, liquidity support, and venture partners to help bootstrap your Mantle application. Maybe it's all of these reasons all put together. So, if

you're a dev and you want to build on one of the best foundations in crypto or you're a user looking to claim some ownership on Mantle's DeFi apps, click the link in the show notes to get started with Mantle. The Obal collective is up and running and is maybe one of the most important collectives that you've never heard of. Obal is bringing distributed validators or DVS to the Ethereum staking stack. Distributed validators allow multiple parties of people running multiple nodes to create a single virtual Ethereum validator together. This makes participating in Ethereum consensus more accessible,

more affordable, and more inclusive. It is a strict improvement to the Ethereum staking tech stack. With collaboration from Lio ether, Igen Leer, and 50 other entities and thousands of individuals, the Obal collective is working to scale and decentralize Ethereum using DVS. And now you can get involved. Introducing the Obal contributions program. Visit ob.org/banlist to stake on DVS either through a partner staking protocol or at home. Earn access to future governance and ownership in Obal while contributing to retroactive funding for projects that are actively decentralizing Ethereum. This is your opportunity to secure inclusion in one of

the most important projects working to scale Ethereum's foundation for future growth. Visit ob.org/banlist to get started. That's ob.org/banlist. Arbitrum is the leading Ethereum scaling solution that is home to hundreds of decentralized applications. Arbitrum technology allows you to interact with Ethereum at scale with low fees and faster transactions. Arbitrum has the leading DeFi ecosystem, strong infrastructure options, flourishing NFTs, and is quickly becoming the web3 gaming hub. Explore the ecosystem at portal.arbitrum.io. Are you looking to permissionlessly launch your own arbitrum orbit chain? Arbitrum orbit allows anyone to utilize Arbitrum's secure scaling technology to build your own orbit

chain, giving you access to interoperable, customizable permissions with dedicated throughput. Whether you are a developer, an enterprise, or user, Arbitrum orbit lets you take your project to new heights. All of these technologies leverage the security and decentralization of Ethereum, experience web3 development the way it was always meant to be: secure, fast, cheap, and friction-free. Visit arbitrum.io and get your journey started in one of the largest Ethereum communities.