Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the crypto today we're going to talk about Bitcoin dubious speculation if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at intothe crypto. com let's go ahead and jump in so Bitcoin has had a a sizable correction this week I mean it it did go all the way up to 108 now it's more than $10,000 below that slightly lower than the low from last week but it is still generally trending at much higher valuations than it was just a few weeks ago but I do want to talk about this move talk about you know what does it look the most similar to one of the things you'll note is that last year right if you look at the daily time frame uh last year in 2023 Bitcoin kind of went through something similar where it it kind of like slowly rallied up and then it got a larger move and then it got these larger Corrections and then it Consolidated for a long time before then moving up once again you could argue that something like that is happening again right you you get this move up um and then it accelerates higher and then you get one of these larger sell-offs um and and what's really interesting about this move is if you look at at usdt dominance it's almost a carbon copy of like the uh the type of move that is happening right so if you look at usdt dominance and compare it to 2023 what you'll see is that usdt dominance actually was was dropping and it started to break down but then it wasn't actually able to for a while right you see this how usdt dominance held support here it tried holding support again for a little bit usdt dominance went up to the 21 week em got rejected and then it broke down in February meaning Bitcoin broke up while USD dominance went down you're kind of seeing similar thing right where like you have this low by by usdt dominance it then sweeps that low and and one of the reasons why altcoins aren't keeping up with Bitcoin generally speaking and they and you know if Bitcoin goes up they go up less if Bitcoin drops alt go down more is arguably because usdt dominance is still relatively low right and it's not yet clear that it's going to break down again it certainly could but as I've said before I think horizontal support levels are going to become a lot more important as USD dominance continues to mature and so the way that you really get a big move in the altcoin market is to see essentially you know a lot more retail money flood into the space I think one of the issues right now for you know for for altcoins is that Bitcoin goes up but usdt dominance even though Bitcoin was going up for a while usdt dominance was not going that much further down one way to visualize that actually is if you go look at the um at the advanced decline index for the top 100 under cryptocurrencies you can see that the ADI has been dropping since like 2021 meaning a lot of cryptocurrencies are actually trending down not up um which is different than what you saw back over here but back over here QE had already returned we haven't seen the return of QB yet and that could be the reasons why a lot of alts are struggling but then you have a you know you have a few cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and a few others that are basically lifting everything else up or at least they're lifting the total market cap up even if the market cap many individual alts hasn't really changed a whole lot over the last few years so I think the reason for that is just we've never really seen that return of quantitative easing therefore the ADI continues to go down even while Bitcoin and total market cap in general has tended to continue uh to go to the upside so I thought that was an interesting way to sort of think about the market now in the short term Bitcoin is still well above its bull market support band but I would say you know sometimes it gets a little too far extended and we we did talk about this a few times on the live streams uh and and and it's funny cuz like every time we talk about it you know so many people are like oh it's not going to matter this time and then it ends up mattering once again how this is the natural log of the price divided by the 20we moving average and you can see that every time it hits this trend line it it can find Corrections from there right and and we're potentially getting one again you see we got one over here in March we're getting a little bit of a correction here again again it's going to eventually break through because otherwise if it doesn't whenever this goes below zero the natural log of the price uh divid by 20we moving average if it's below zero on on this chart it would imply that the price is always below the 20we moving average and I don't expect that to eventually be the case so therefore this trend line eventually has to break the only question is when not if in my view but again you know it was extended a little bit if you look at at the um the short-term bubble risk which is also just the extension for the 20we moving average it and we talked about this a little bit as well in the live streams you can kind of see it's in that range where you you get you can find some of these Corrections where Bitcoin comes back down to earth now there is a chance right there's a chance that you you see Bitcoin fall all the way back to the bull Mark support band uh but remember last time it it kind of just Consolidated and waited for the 20we ese to catch up so that's also an outcome but I do want to at least put one potential outcome on your radar just in case it happens and that's basically back testing this trend line again we've seen that pattern happen a lot with all Bitcoin Pairs and and other random evaluations where like it you'll see sort of a breakout and then a back test and then it continues there is always a chance that something like that happens doesn't have to be and I'm not asking you to like sell an anticipation of that but there is a chance that you see something like that happen that's actually what happened last cycle right I mean you you basically had sort of a lower high structure you eventually had a breakout followed by a a major drop down now this was a pandemic induced recession so it it actually fell below the trend line but you could argue that had there not been a pandemic induced recession you know maybe you wouldn't have had the back tests at all or maybe it just would have held it as support you you you've seen this similar as well I mean you can see back over here if you uh switch this over to a um if we if we come in here and sort of zoom into these lower highs right here you can kind of see something similar happening I mean it's not exact it's not an exact carbon copy but back over here there were a couple of lower highs uh that Bitcoin had right couple of lower highs and then broke out was up here for a while back tested it and then moved up so that can happen and I'm not asking you to take it to the bank I'm just saying look there's a chance that you see something like that happen where where Bitcoin you know maybe it even spend some more time up here and maybe it even sets a new all-time high right but it could always back test this trend line eventually if it does I would expect it to get a big bounce off of it right I would assume that it probably wouldn't play out like this where it just Falls all the way below it because I don't really think you're going to see the unemployment rate go from you know 4% to 10% basically overnight which is what happened back then if you overlay the unemployment rate with the price of Bitcoin the this crash corresponded to the time when you know the unemployment rate went from 3. 5% to you know to like almost 15% or so essentially overnight so as long as you don't have something like that then I think you have to sort of approach that in a more realistic and rational way rather than just calling for those those types of moves you just sort of say all right well you know from a technical technical analysis perspective it could do something um you know like that but anyways right now Bitcoin is is just around 97k um if you go look at I wanted to check back in here very quickly with the stable coin spy ratio oscillator because that that's actually a really uh interesting indicator because you can see that a lot of times it'll top and then the market will Trend up as the ssro trends back down and then occasionally you'll see the ssro get another big bounce and that's what leg to the next leg higher back over here in 2024 also something similar happened in March 2023 so the levels that the SSR got those major bounces uh were at 0.

n and then over here at 0. five or so right um so you can see you can see like where those where those were right right now this metric is at 1. 3 right it's at 1.

3 but I would certainly keep an eye on it because it is it is dropping relatively quickly and it wouldn't take very long for it to get back down to kind of where it was last year and you can see that this structure right the structure that Bitcoin has right here looks really similar to the structure that it had over here where it gets a big move up in October November then slowly Trends up and then kind of consolidates and falls off for a a little while so certainly an interesting thing to to track to follow I think the ssro probably deserves a little bit more of our attention than we UL Ely give it um again the extension from the fair value is relatively low still only about 4% do note there's three Cycles here you can look at one of the Cycles once we went overvalued that was it two other Cycles we went overvalued we did get a couple of pullbacks one right there um and then one earlier on and then over here you can see we had a couple of pullbacks after going into the over valuation territory and if you go look at the extension from the fair value like this you can see what I'm talking about right one overvaluation two over two overvaluations and then really go 2016 cycle it was just gone when it went above it last cycle over valuation back down over valuation back down and then go same thing again maybe you got a over valuation here back down and then a slight overvaluation again if it does come back down uh you know below the fair value that actually could be a pretty good opportunity um if you uh you know if you wanted to get a position so certainly interesting to follow look at monthly Returns on bitcoin still technically green you know still technically green uh you can't necessarily say that about other cryptocurrencies right if you look at ethereum it's actually red right now and if you look at at total market cap it's actually red so Bitcoin is actually doing better uh than a lot of of the cryptocurrency market now if we go look at year-to-date Roi of Bitcoin you know we've been F we've been tracking it compared to two things one was the uh last year and then one was the having year return so it it's actually still following what it did last year the closest um it almost looks like a carbon copy of it just a slightly diminished version you could also look at the average of Prior having years right you can look at at the average of Prior having years and see that it is falling off a little bit um so it doesn't necessarily have to follow that all the way through but anyways guys we're going to go ahead and and wrap it up I just wanted to give you guys you know sort of a brief outlook on how things might shape up here for the next few weeks and and and just sort of show those options so hopefully that makes sense uh we'll see what happens thank you guys for tuning in make sure you subscribe give video a thumbs up and again check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at intothe crypt.