Bitcoin's breakout is a precursor for equities through year-end, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

fun Strat Global advisor head of research Tom Lee Joins us on set today hi Tom hello uh So based on what Tao was describing with regard to bitcoin uh what do you think that this most recent rally says about the overall risk appetite in the market right now um well it's it's really telling us investors are pro- risk um I do think it also just signals how much Capital has been idle for the last couple of years either parked in Money Market cash or uh waiting to see if the econ survived so I think Bitcoin

Rising is is to me breaking out of a holding pattern is is a precursor to what the S&P is going to do the rest of the year speaking of the the moves in the broader markets you say the road to 6300 is paved with bumps what do you expect investors uh to see ahead that may slow them down what are some of the key markers that you're looking for well I think there's a lot of macro to digest the next three weeks you know tomorrow is the jobs report and I think investors are fearful that

it's going to be too strong because of the hurricane uh and seasonal adjustment so it's going to be a big number next week is CPI which has been running a little hot and fed share pile spoke about that ear earlier this week and then of course uh on the 18th is the fomc rate decision so I think once we're through these events investors can actually then invest into sort of that Christmas Santa Claus rally so I think 6,300 is still very doable so you're basically saying don't go away after the 18th because there may be

some additional upside toward the end of the year yes or by the dips yeah so I mean you suggest there that um we're in a bad uh good news is bad news for stocks environment I mean I why should the market be concerned If the Fed is going to be less aggressive in terms of cutting rates I think there's a conceptual uh change that the market has to get used to which is let's say earlier this year when the FED started cutting people thought oh five cuts is good for stocks in 2025 so if the

number gets reduced it's bearish I I think as we get into 2025 the Market's going to shift to thinking the fewest Cuts possible next year is the best case because it it elongates the doish cycle so I think we're we have to flip the script but it's going to take some time but hasn't that been the case all year I mean because the in January of this year the market was implying six or seven Cuts we're only getting a few uh We've slowed the pace the 2-year yield is not that far below fed funds anymore

so my I guess my point is the Market's already kind of registered that slower is better that's right I think it's uh I I would just say it's not a consensus accepted view because for instance when fed Cher pile spoke about taking things a little slower the market got weak and then maybe had a rethink so I think it's going to take a while until markets realize one cut next year is actually quite bullish are you surprised that equities haven't reacted to some of the political turmoil abroad South Korea France elsewhere uh in some ways

I think the stock market had been already pricing this in because as you know this year has been a pretty significant Divergence between US versus Europe and US versus emerging markets and even China's sort of failed rally so I I think in some ways the Market's not surprised maybe it was even pricing in this through currencies and Equity prices Tom I'm going to go back long ways to our long relationship do you still even track active managers and how much you know they're they're trailing their Bogies at all and whether that's a factor in any

way at the end of the year yeah in fact we've been cleaning up that data because you know as you know in the last 10 years there's been a big change in the number of managers uh it's good it's a it's kind of a good and bad year because active managers that tactically went cyclical or more offensive or Tech uh have been having Banner years I mean we have so many clients that are beating their Benchmark by six seven 8 these are unheard of outperformance but it's a small number because as you know when you

look at the world more towards macro or Market neutral it's been very tough