What Happens to Hong Kong Now?

as a politics follower you'll no doubt remember the 2019 to 20 Hong Kong protests when people clashed with the police over China's Democratic Crackdown since then though the ccp's clampdown has only got worse with a further National Security Law introduced in March 2024 moreover Hong Kong's economy once one of the world's leading Financial hubs has also slowed with tens of thousands of workers particularly young people leaving the city every year so in this video we'll take a look at Hong Kong Democratic and economic crises why things are getting even worse and what this means going

[Music] forward before we start if you haven't already please consider subscribing and ringing the bell to stay in the loop and be notified when we release new videos but first let's start with some history from 1841 until the end of the 20th century Hong Kong was a British colony in the 1950s after Cold War Era San on Mainland China meant it was no longer a reliable trade partner Hong Kong became a successful textiles exporter and had a series of trade deals with the UK in the 1970s Hong Kong's GDP grew at an average of 88.9%

and in the 1980s it averaged 7.4% in 1984 the UK and China signed the Sino British joint declaration agreeing to transfer sovereignty of Hong Kong to China in 1997 after this Hong Kong was administered under China's one country two systems principle and the basic law becoming a special administrative region of China with its own legal and political systems until 2047 when it will be fully returned to the mainland anyway after 1997 Hong Kong's economy began to slow it took a few external hits first the 1998 Asian financial crisis then the bursting of the it NASDAQ

bubble in 2000 then the 2003 SARS outbreak while it managed to bounce back each time Hong Kong struggled to keep up with China's econ iic boom and its GDP as a share of China's began to decline slumping to just 2% in 2021 this isn't to say that Hong Kong wasn't doing well economically but rather that mainland China was expanding more rapidly cheaper labor in China made its manufacturing industry more competitive and Hong Kong was forced to move up the value chain becoming a Global Financial and Professional Services Hub just look at the huge presence of

foreign companies in 2007 more than 3,800 foreign firms around three times the number today had chosen the city as their Regional headquarters but over the past decade things have taken a downturn there's two main interrelated issues here Hong Kong's Democratic rule of law crisis and its economic crisis Hong Kong's Democratic crisis started properly in 2014 when the CCP proposed a set of reforms to Hong Kong's electoral system that would allow them to pre-screen candidates for the highest office the Hong Kong chief executive this protest sometimes called stage managed democracy was viewed as a form of

democratic backsliding overriding Hong Kong's rights to universal suffrage subsequently China further intensified its Crackdown on free speech with the Hong Kong government's proposed introduction of another bill in 2019 the extradition Bill sparking another lot of violent protests the extradition Bill threatened to have Hong kongers tried in mainland China which could have subjected them to a different legal system once again eroding their rights in the basic law while the bill was ultimately scrapped yet another one the National Security Law known as article 23 was enacted in 2020 with a further law passed in 2024 under article

23 crimes like treason sedition and subversion can be punished with a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison and this week dozens of activists from the Hong Kong 47 were given jail time for their role in organizing an unofficial opposition primary election in 2020 China likely views article 23 as a natural step in the integration of Hong Kong into the mainland but for Hong kongers it's a form of Oppression and has prompted much International outcry in Practical terms article 23 has also led to an exodus of people from their territory in 2024 alone five foreign

judges have left Hong Kong's Top Court including former UK Supreme Court Judge Lord Jonathan supon who warned in June that the city was slowly becoming a totalitarian state voter participation has also declined with turnout at the 2023 district council elections plummeting to a record low anyway now let's move back to the economy Hong Kong's economy was already battered by the covid-19 pandemic and tourist numbers are still not back to the pre-pandemic levels the ccp's ultr strict zero covid policy meant that restrictions were in place well later than in most countries further hurting business but Hong

Kong's economic crisis was also worsened by the National Security Law article 23's vague definition of State Secrets has spooked foreign firms as normal business activities like auditing financial analysis and due diligence could feasibly trespass into the realm of State Secrets businesses duly saw this as a risk and the number of multinational companies with regional headquarters in Hong Kong fell from 1,541 in 2019 to 1,336 in 2023 with us firms accounting for one of the biggest drops employees are also leaving at the height of zero covid in early 2022 tens of thousands of financial sector professionals

left Hong Kong for places like Singapore moreover in fear of article 23 Hong Kong's many young workers are also immigrating shrinking its labor force a recent survey conducted by the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce found that 74% of companies are facing a talent shortage on top of this the hangsang index which measures Hong Kong stock market has been steadily falling since 2021 investment in property is slowing and Hong Kong's GDP growth rate is projected to fall over the coming years too so what's next for Hong Kong well there were a few trends that will

likely continue over the coming years first the CCP will further intensify its Crackdown on Democracy not just within Hong Kong but also abroad there are emerging reports about Chinese transnational repression for example in 2022 at the Chinese Consulate in Manchester Hong konger Bob Chan was dragged by his hair and beaten by staff forcing the UK to expel six Chinese diplomats secondly young people will continue to leave the territory departures from Hong Kong mostly to other parts of China now outnumber Mainland arrivals by almost 3 to one but workers are also moving abroad in 2020 the

UK introduced a special bno Visa for Hong Kong which has so far seen 150,000 Hong kongers moved to the UK this disenfranchisement is compounded by the fact that mainlanders immigrating to Hong Kong often have the upper hand in job applications as they speak better Mandarin and have networks in China ultimately China is steadily increasing its control over Hong Kong while erasing Western influence we should however point out that Rising us China tensions are also a fundamental cause behind Hong Kong's downfall for decades Hong Kong's geopolitical neutrality was the foundation of its freedom and prosperity but

this era is now very clearly coming to an end now obviously all of that is is pretty complicated but hopefully our analysis has made it a little clearer making videos like this requires a lot of effort and research to uncover what's really going on before then summarizing it into something that makes sense to everyone but that's an expensive process running TDR this year has cost just under £800,000 which when your main product is free YouTube videos is quite a lot of money if you want to support our journalism in 2025 then one way to do

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