Bitcoin: Dooooobious Speculation

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about Bitcoin dubious speculation if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and check out into the cryptoverse premium at into the crypto. com we are running the sale now so make sure you guys check that out with it being Halloween I thought we would do sort of the spooky style thumbnail for the video and of course that thumbnail was actually generated by AI again did it I did that sort of trick again just to get an interesting looking thumbnail and so hopefully you guys like it uh if you don't um that's your problem not mine so let's go aad and jump in here with Bitcoin it's currently right around 70k and what needs to be addressed right now is the the Divergence between the cyclical View and the monetary policy View and we are about to find out which one will prevail okay I told you guys before this week started right back when Bitcoin was at um like 65 66k or something like that I said that this was decision week right it's decision week this is the week where things should deviate either to the cyclical view or the monetary policy view now going into October I said said that it makes sense to not fade the seasonal view the cyclical View and the reason for that is because usually uh you know going into Q4 of a having year this shows the year-to DAT Roi of Bitcoin in 2012 2016 2020 and 2024 normally it goes up in Q4 of the having year and as I said previously Bitcoin needs a reason to go down not a reason to go up right because generally markets Trend higher they don't need a reason to go up they'll just go up they need reasons to actually go down so that's why the stock market generally Trends higher it needs a compelling reason to actually sell off not a compelling reason to just slowly go up so the cyclical view so far is still very much intact right here's the year dat Roi of Bitcoin and of course here is the ROI from the cycle low right if you look at the ROI from the cycle low Bitcoin is following what it normally does around this time right it gets a move up um into this phase of the market cycle as measured from the bottom that's clear that's been playing out um and so far the cyclical view has been looking pretty strong right now the other way to look at the cyclical view is the lower high structure that has been in place by Bitcoin for most of the year right basically since March you can see that Bitcoin was just putting in lower highs and and it was sort of tagged this trend line a number of times it didn't actually tag it in July uh if you actually connect the Wicks and it came back up to it last week and then this week it is moved above it right so you can see that there has been Merit to the cyclical View and that's the reason why Bitcoin has made this move um now the question is will the cyclical view Prevail Beyond tomorrow all right now if you think back a few days ago when we talked about that video decision time I said that this would be the week that Bitcoin makes a decision right this would be the week because the labor market data is coming out tomorrow right on Friday it's coming out tomorrow and we'll see where the unemployment rate is the reason why that the unemployment rate print is such an important print is because if you look at the unemployment rate basically throughout this year the lower high structure by Bitcoin really began when the unemployment rate really started to move up and now that the unemployment rate was moving down again the unemployment or the the price of Bitcoin was breaking through this lower high structure right we see that pretty clearly the unemployment rate dropped and Bitcoin was able to really break through the lower high structure so that is a really interesting way to look at the market right the labor market does have some effect on bitcoin because ever since Bitcoin was starting to put in the lower highs it corresponded to the unemployment rate moving up a little bit more aggressively so that is one way to look at the market and that's why the unemployment rate print tomorrow will be very instrumental in helping us figure out whether the cyclical view of Bitcoin will prevail through the rest of the year or or whether the monetary policy view will prevail now in the short term I think it makes the most sense to trust what the chart is telling us right so before I think any strong calls can be made on this I think it makes sense to see where the weekly close comes in right a week L close above 70k and especially above this trend line you know which would maybe put a weekly close above 69k or so but a weekly close above 70k would go a long way in helping to give even more evidence to support the cyclical view of Bitcoin okay if Bitcoin falls back and closes down here right if if it just sells off and this is is nothing more than a wick I think that the monetary policy view would be more likely to play out for the rest of the year so I know a lot of what I'm saying you know throughout all that is just so you're saying it could go up or down what I'm specifically saying is what happens this week will likely dictate what I think will happen for the rest of the year that is what I'm saying right what happens this week we'll dictate it and so as an investor I I feel compelled to trust the chart and Trust to say where will the weekly close B if you look back to July there was also you know a big move up a consolidation week and then a wick higher but then it ended up just being a wick and Bitcoin then closed down quite a lot by the end of the week so that has to at least be something on your radar the monetary policy View is more so related to sort of all Bitcoin Pairs and and rate cuts and and quantitative easing and all that stuff and one of the things I have said over and over and over again for three years was Bitcoin heavy until 60% dominance right well we sit here today and dominance is at 60% right so it would be somewhat poetic if if it did if it if that narrative actually ended up being right right like just stay stick with Bitcoin until it hits 60% dominance and then start to wonder all right you know will there be some form of a longer um correction or consolidation I don't know everyone keeps asking me if dominance is going to go higher to me I mean it seems like the consolidation period the correction period has already gone on for seven or eight months it seems like long enough to me but I also would be remiss to remind you if I didn't remind you that I said six to n months and the reason I said nine months was in case we actually get a landing right so if the six-month view is right then the cyclical way is the way to look at the market if the 9-month view is right then the monetary policy view will in fact Prevail so it really depends on what happens this week now you might say well Ben bitcoin's at 60% dominance does that mean it's time for alt season but the reality and I've said this for a long time is that alt Bitcoin pair are still well off their range low right I mean they're now at 36 and one of the things I've told you guys all year long is that what would likely happen is that eventually alt Bitcoin the the bull market support band for alt Bitcoin pairs would go below 04 which is where the prior support was and then that would finally push all Bitcoin pairs down right and is that is not is that not exactly what is happening right now all Bitcoin pairs refused to really durably go down they finally rallied up to 04 again but this time they were met by the bull market support ban and the bull market support band loudly said You shall not pass right you shall not pass 0 4 is now firmly resistance until QB returns that's what I think is happening right here the reason why all bit pairs were not breaking down previously in an aggressive manner is because the bull market support ban had not gone below the prior support but now that it has all Bitcoin pairs the reality right the harsh reality is starting to take hold that oh you mean that they they still haven't bottomed right I mean they're putting in new lows today being directionally correct is what you want to be it's hard calling the exact tops and exact bottoms but if you've been directionally correct on all Bitcoin pairs for the three last three years that's what matters that's what matters and they just put in new lows today today and remember historically historically they're oscillators at fast right and again I they're not oscillators at worst they're oscillators at best and therefore the expectation should be that they bleed to 0. 25 and they could go lower than that but I mean that's my expectation is that they bleed to around that 0.

25 level because I don't think that this time is different right I don't think that this time is different therefore I think that all Bitcoin pairs will eventually go to 0 25 and if you look at this if you connect the dots on all Bitcoin pairs you will see that they tagged the trend line once in the bare market and then they tagged it again um and let's overlay interest rates onto the chart they tagged it again uh right there just before the FED reached the terminal rate and then they tagged it one last time after rate Cuts began and look at it this cycle right look at it this cycle the first time it tagged it was in the bare Market the second time it tagged the trend line was just before the terminal rate what if they just bleed back down what if they just bleed back down to the range lows as those rate Cuts come in just like they did last Market cycle right so because of that I think it makes sense to believe that all Bitcoin pairs are more likely going to drop than go up so I'm sorry to the people that keep calling for alt season but I've told you that alt season is likely not going to happen until 2025 so stop trying to front run it right alt season is when alts outperform Bitcoin durably and not just a one-off move now there is a chance that altcoins get a little rally against Bitcoin at some point in November because if you look at November of 2020 when dominance was also going up a lot and all Bitcoin pairs were crashing you can see that all Bitcoin pairs found a low about mid November and then they rallied back up and then finally capitulated by the end of the year early January so because of that right because of that I think you have to look at all Bitcoin Pairs objectively and say they are falling knives until proven otherwise right otherwise you end up buying a falling knife and then it just keeps on dropping on its Bitcoin pair there is no guarantee there's no guarantee immediately that they've bottomed here's one thing to think about when it comes to to bitcoin dominance and this is really where it's going to become important based on the cyclical View and the monetary policy view there's the the monetary policy view of Bitcoin dominance says that we're approaching this top the cyclical view of Bitcoin dominance says that we're approaching this top after the first top sorry after the second top alt season began immediately when the top occurred because people sold their Bitcoin into alts this top alts went down they just went down slower than Bitcoin now we can think about fundamentally why that makes sense how do you get alt season right how do you actually get alt season it happens on a parabolic Bitcoin rally right so if by the end of the year Bitcoin is much higher today than it is right now or if it's much higher then than it is right now then there's a higher chance that you could get some form of an ALT season but if on the other hand Bitcoin is lower by December than it is right now then you probably won't get allseason because the way you get all season is people finally believe Bitcoin has rallied up high enough to Warrant taking profits okay if Bitcoin sells off before it gets that parabolic rally that everyone's waiting for then you don't really get that alt season um you could see Bitcoin dominance drop at some point but it doesn't mean that it's because of alt season it could just be that bitcoin's dropping a little quicker than the altcoin market so the cyclical view which occurred in Q4 of the having year which is where are right now would suggest that if Bitcoin rallies for the rest of the year then early 2025 people might finally get what they want the monetary policy view would say if Bitcoin does not Rally throughout the rest of the year then alt season will further be delayed and might not actually occur until later on in 2025 assuming we get it so that's where we are right now so the thing to watch for this week with Bitcoin is can it close above 70k I honestly think that is a going to be a huge milestone if Bitcoin closes below 70k by the weekly close I think that would be a big blow to bitcoin right I I think you would look at this and be like was that just a big wick um and and it just sort of faked everyone out but if it closes above 70k then there starts to be a lot more validity to the idea of the cyclical view right where it just sort of slowly goes up into the end of the year one thing I I I would like to see for confirmation is the total market cap of crypto the total market cap of crypto has not really broken out right you can see it had a wick above it but now it's just right back below it so in 2019 when Bitcoin broke out the total market cap also broke out right it broke out with Bitcoin we haven't seen that yet total market cap has not broken out and I think one of the issues why it hasn't is because while Bitcoin is basically near all-time highs altcoins aren't doing anything right now right I mean they just keep on bleeding they're doing what allcoins do best bleed that's what they do best they bleed they just keep on doing that so I think maybe this is a more important Milestone to watch Total market cap can it break through if it can it shows com information of the cyclical view if it can't it suggests the monetary policy view does have validity another chart that might be interesting to look at is Bitcoin divided by gold so instead of dividing it by US dollars divided by gold see if that can break out if that can break out that would be confirmation more of the cyclical view right if you look at at 2019 you can see that Bitcoin was eventually able to break out even against gold and gold was doing well back then too right it did break out right there so that is what I'm looking at right what happens with the labor market data tomorrow what happens with Bitcoin tomorrow or really going into Sunday with the weekly close any weekly close above 70k would really start to V favor the cyclical view any weekly close below 70k would start to favor the monetary policy View and right now when you look at at all Bitcoin pairs they're still following what we've talked about for the last three years right they're still following it after all this time they are at lower valuation today let me show you look at the daily time frame all Bitcoin pairs hit a lower valuation today than at any point since the bare Market began for altcoins against Bitcoin a lower point today as I said previously the altcoin Reckoning never ended the altcoin Reckoning refers to the devaluation of altcoins against Bitcoin not altcoins against US Dollars stop denominating your portfolio in US dollars right if you denominate in Bitcoin then the market makes a lot more sense if you denominate in US Dollars then I can't help you right because your your your unit of account is something that is just going to zero anyways the purchasing power of the US dollar just goes to zero anyways right so if your unit of account is Bitcoin then everything starts to make a lot more sense so don't think about it in terms of US Dollars think about it in terms of Bitcoin yes bitcoin's going to get Corrections you know that right you signed up for that of course it's going to get Corrections at some point and if it gets a correction now then so be it right I mean that's what we talked about that right that's going to happen even in Bull markets you will get Corrections by the king and you have to be prepared for that but the upside for Bitcoin over years and years and years justifies that risk is the argument right it justifies that risk and that's what continues to play out throughout throughout the cycles and so that's why unit of account being Bitcoin makes a hell of a lot more sense than making your unit of account anything else in the cryptoverse right who cares if you bought an altcoin that went up 2X if Bitcoin went up Forex who cares you took on more risk and you got a lower return Right congratulations your unit of account should be Bitcoin that doesn't mean Bitcoin can't go down it just means that whatever bitcoin's doing the altcoin market until QE returns is likely just going to lag Bitcoin so if Bitcoin goes up alts go up less if Bitcoin goes down alts go down more if Bitcoin stays flat alts go down altcoins just can't catch a break so as we stand here today on Halloween 2024 it is a little spooky when you look at the altcoin chart against Bitcoin and you recognize that they never stopped going down and that if the cycle completes then alt Bitcoin pairs could go to 0. 25 by the end of the year because alt coins are oscillators at best not oscillators at worst that is the view that I have expressed for a long time Bitcoin d is at 60% you don't have to tell me right I know I'm I'm thrilled I'm like finally I don't have to focus on this anymore but it could go higher if some of the larger market cap alts bounce against Bitcoin then there still a chance like if ethereum bounces against Bitcoin there's a chance that dominance doesn't go too much higher but it also makes sense to know that it could go higher right and if it does it it still hasn't detracted from anything um Bitcoin heavy until 60% dominance in my mind was a successful strategy right whatever happens from here Bitcoin heavy until 60% made the most amount of sense Beyond 60% things get a little less clear now a Bitcoin Maxi would argue Bitcoin heavy forever like 100% Bitcoin forever a Bitcoin Maxi would say dominance is already at 100% and honestly there's some truth to that right I mean why not separate the two why not just say Bitcoin is in a league of its own right bitcoin's over here your Bitcoin portfolio is over there your crypto portfolio is over here there's nothing wrong with that but the the reality about about you know Bitcoin there does exist a scenario where dominance goes up while Bitcoin goes down um there does exist a scenario where dominance goes up because Bitcoin goes up right what is really holding me back right what is really really holding me back on the altcoin market is ethereum that's what's holding me back and I will explain why you guys already know why right I don't need to tell you you should already know why at this point if you don't know why then I have failed you but as I have said in 2016 eth Bitcoin broke down in the summer of 16 in the summer of 2019 eth Bitcoin broke down and in the summer of 2024 eth Bitcoin broke down we're looking at the eth USD chart so you're probably wondering where did it break down e Bitcoin is a different chart but you should know that it broke down in 2016 2019 and 2024 and in Q4 of the year that eth Bitcoin broke down ethusd finally went home so if ethusd fin finally goes home after all this time that would likely Mark the end of the altcoin Reckoning for this cycle and it's probably going to happen by the end of the year and it's probably going to play out the same way it plays out every single cycle and every single cycle everyone spends three years trying to figure out why it won't play out and then it does so if this is what happens for ethereum right if this is what happens for ethereum then we got to watch Bitcoin dominance to because in 2016 eth dropped while Bitcoin went up in 2019 eth dropped while Bitcoin went down so far eth has been dropping while Bitcoin went up right even this month right look at this month you know a lot of people have asked me how can how can eth possibly go if bitcoin's going up how is that possible well look no further than the current month that we're in Bitcoin is up 11% right now right it's up 11% this month Bitcoin could drop to 64k and still be green for the month but ethereum good old eth is red this month it's down 2% now look by the end of the day I don't know if it's going to close green or red it doesn't really matter it's going to it's basically probably going to close you know around these levels plus or minus a couple hundred bucks but the point is is you can't say that it's impossible for eth to go down while bitcoin's going up because that's exactly what has happened this month eth is down 2% and Bitcoin is up 11% that's exactly how it happens right it bleeds to bitcoin if ethereum continues to drop in November and December which to be completely honest is my base case on its USD pair the Bitcoin pair I'm not as confident about I think the Bitcoin pair could bottom out relatively soon but I don't think it makes sense to call the bottom on eth bitcoin until eth Bitcoin passes its 50-day moving average I think it would be premature you know I do I'm not saying you shouldn't hedge I just think it would be premature to call the bottom until it crosses the 50-day moving average once it crosses the 50-day I think the low is in but until that time it makes sense to say well it could go lower right like I don't know where the bottom is I sure as hell don't know 03 to 04 is my best guess but it's not like I have a crystal ball and remember in 2016 ebitcoin didn't bottom until December but when it did bottom ethusd bottomed if eth Bitcoin bottoms before December that doesn't mean that ethusd also bottoms before December because in 2019 eth Bitcoin bottomed before December it bottomed in September and ethusd still went down in Q4 so there is a fundamental difference between eth Bitcoin and ethusd ethusd depends on bitcoin USD eth Bitcoin is irrelevant as it relates to bitcoin USD it's more dependent on monetary policy this is what made the Bitcoin dominant strategy so easy right so so the easiest part of the cycle is to just stick with Bitcoin for three years the midterm year the prehab the midterm year the preh having year and the having year you just stick with Bitcoin and you preserve this associal valuation of your portfolio the post having year the Bitcoin Maxes are going to come down hard on me and let them I don't care but the post having year is the year where Bitcoin dominance historically goes down but again there's a lot of time between now and then right I mean there's a lot of time between October 31st 2024 and December 31st 2024 because if you were to look at alt Bitcoin pairs if you were just simp go look at all Bitcoin Pairs and see sort of the the pace at which they're dropping right now right if they continue to drop at this pace they would hit 0. 25 by December this is the pace they've been on for the last week so if this pace were to continue that's why I'm saying a lot can happen in two months so yes maybe dominance does go down next year maybe all Bitcoin pairs do go up next year but maybe they start going up from a valuation that is lower than where we are today right maybe they start going up from down here because that's what happened last cycle and you can see that last cycle all Bitcoin pairs went to 0.

25 two months after the First Rate cut the First Rate cut was September so two months would in fact be next month November so I can't help but feel like it's playing out the same damn way that it has every cycle and that everyone's here trying to fade the most likely outcome once again so to be clear the people that keep asking me about win all season I'm I'm going to guess that altcoins don't durably outperform Bitcoin until next year right until next year and just for a year they're still likely going to put on a lower high against Bitcoin that's the reality and I'm not not asking you I'm not going to try to convince you well I am kind of but you're not I mean if you don't if if you believe me you believe me if you don't you don't but the reality is that all Bitcoin pairs put in lower highs and they've also you know mostly been putting in lower lows this is a low a lower low right so there's a chance that all Bitcoin pairs do something like this well like this maybe that's what they do that's what they did last cycle the rally to the top of the trend line last cycle occurred in May of the post tapping year but the cycle before that it didn't occur until January of the midterm year right so what if the rally to the high doesn't occur until January of 2026 that might sound crazy but you guys like comparing the cycle to 2016 and that's EX exctly what happened in 2016 altcoins just stayed stuck in traffic on struggle street over here they didn't really rally I guess they rallied they started in December of 2017 so it's decision time my friends it is decision time for Bitcoin if this if the cical view is to be believed then Bitcoin needs to close above 70k in my view and now a lot of people are going to disagree with that but in my view it needs to close above 70k because if it can't if it just falls back down here that's just going to look like one hell of a wick that Drw everyone in so let's hope for the best plan for the worst right hope that this continues and that Bitcoin can continue to slowly grind up despite all the fear that's the hope but as an investor it also makes sense to plan for other outcomes right and I I I can't help but look at total market cap and be like if bitcoin's breaking out why isn't total market cap following right like why is it not yet following and I have to go back over to usdt dominance and say look is is this just a wick right is this is this a wick that everyone's getting excited about on this on this shorter term trend line right here if that is just a wick right if I even if I make it a little bit tighter here if that ends up being a wick and everyone gets faked out that's the danger of altcoins right now bitcoin's not as dangerous I mean Bitcoin could correct but it would be more likely to recover but listen if that is a fake out and Bitcoin does drop you're still probably better off um being a little cautious of the altcoin market the main reason I'm still cautious about the altcoin market has nothing to do with Bitcoin USD it all has to do with all Bitcoin pairs right total three minus usdt divided by Bitcoin it has everything to do with that if all Bitcoin pairs were at 0.