#MiEmpleoMiFuturo: un documental sobre robots, economía, clase media... y el fin del mundo

Two humans enter a bar the older one says, we’ve given you young ones of today everything on a plate the younger one says: that’s not necessarily a good thing sorry. . .

he’s still not very good at telling jokes one question What do you think the future will be like? or wait. .

. even easier, do you think the world’s getting better or worse? for example, those who think the world’s getting worse imagine that we’re heading towards a more unequal world a greater divide between north and south that the part of humanity without healthcare or education is staying stagnant or even growing that there are a lot of poor people and just a few rich those who believe the contrary usually imagine a less radical divide let’s say a more equal world and many believe that extreme poverty will be eradicated soon let’s find out who’s right in 1960, 60% of the world population lived in a situation of extreme poverty that is, on less than 2 dollars a day do you think that number has gone down these past years?

has it grown? or has it remained the same? well, it’s actually considerably lower today, only 10% of the world population lives in extreme poverty in fact, the world’s wealth is not divided between a large part of the population that is poor and a rich minority that was up until the 60’s now, the majority of the population tends to group around the middle education in the 60’s, only a little over half of the population had basic education today, it’s 86% it looks like we’ve also improved here, doesn’t it?

in the 60’s, being vaccinated against things like diphtheria, whooping cough, or tetanus was very rare this meant that of every 100 children, 20 died before the age of 5 today, 86% are vaccinated only 4% of children in the world die before the age of 5 wait. . .

so then why do we often have the opposite impression? that the world is getting worse in his videos, the statistician Hans Rosling explains it better than I do we suffer from something we could call social pessimism when we don’t know something about the world our brain usually believes that we are the same as yesterday or are even worse but as you’ve seen, we’re usually much better than we think what’s more, if we go back, we’re able to appreciate how spectacular the leap has been 94% of humanity lived in extreme poverty 200 years ago how have we managed to progress so much? for many reasons, obviously but there’s one that’s really important the industrial revolutions the first one saw the invention of the steam engine that’s when everything began to change the second saw the arrival of electricity and with it, the telephone the telegraph, radio, cars.

. . yes, the very first cars were electric and here just before this take-off the third industrial revolution computers the industrial revolutions brought about incredible changes first, they practically did away with craftsmen the people who, for example, made clothing or furniture one person handled the entire process design, manufacture, sale.

. . now for each small task there were specialised workers who did the work much faster with the help of a machine in order to train this new type of worker the modern education system emerged but we’ll talk about that later it was easier to manufacture things and so the price of basic products went down given that the new fertilisers and medications were produced in large quantities both agriculture and medicine took off and we began to live much longer the industrial revolutions also introduced an idea the virtuous circle production grew thanks to technological innovations and a better prepared workforce the wages of these workers went up consumption increased because there were many products and people with better wages companies obtained bigger profits so there was an interest in increasing production because more people were being hired wages kept going up and so on forever this virtuous circle explains the birth of the so-called middle class the group in which everyone could afford a house, a car and a television my parents explained this to me as: we are neither rich nor poor most of the people are in the middle do you remember?

now the majority of the population tends to group around the middle also, the middle class formed a kind of ladder which you could climb from lower paying jobs to executive positions we’ve all heard the story of someone who started as a bell boy and ended up being the chairman of a company but looking at the virtuous circle someone came up with a different way to obtain profits without having to increase workers’ wages relocation relocating production to countries where wages were lower it sounds really bad but it has also helped the following to occur according to the UN, in 1991, in developing countries almost half of the population lived in extreme poverty the middle class barely reached 5% the ladder was heading down right now, the ladder has been turned around the middle class has tripled in size and the largest group is no longer in extreme poverty but rather in what the UN refers to as the developing middle class people that are close to making the leap to the middle class in the developing world, the employment lost through relocation was offset, because it coincided with the boom in private services such as stores, communications, tourism, hotel & catering, banks. . .

but also state-run services, such as healthcare or public transport that provided jobs for all those people right then. . .

let’s summarise a bit so the world is getting better, right? and a bright future awaits us middle class for everyone! if you can’t see it, it’s because of social pessimism affecting your poor brain is that true?

it was. . .

but the virtuous circle worked very well during the second industrial revolution and we’re no longer in the second, or the third we’re starting the fourth industrial revolution remember. . .

the three first industrial revolutions created lots of specialised work this person only makes car doors this one only makes steering wheels this one assembles the chassis and this one deals with the wheels and it’s repetitive work that was carried out with the help of machines but now, in the fourth industrial revolution one type of machine has become so good at that specialised and repetitive job that it no longer needs us computers factories are no longer like that they are becoming this you may think this doesn’t affect you because where you live there have been no factories for a long time but this doesn’t just happen in factories we are generating increasingly more information each day today, your mobile phone provides information about your whereabouts what you’ve purchased, read, whom you’ve been in touch with but this also happens with household appliances, vehicles or the robots in the actual factories they send data to companies about their status, how much they’re used, how they’re used. . .

what they call the Internet of Things until now, to process all that data we’ve had huge departments handling accounts, administration, marketing maintenance. . .

millions of people doing specialised, repetitive data-based work but now we have someone who loves specialised, repetitive, data-based work someone who obeys blindly and expects no wage or rest bingo computers how much specialised and repetitive work is there in our society? there are studies such as this one from Oxford University that say that in the US 47% of employment is just like that specialised and repetitive in countries like Spain studies such as this indicate figures of around 36% we’re saying that almost half of our jobs could be performed by computers this is what they call the automation of work now, attention please the majority of this specialised and repetitive employment is paid an average wage neither rich people’s wages nor poor people’s wages in other words. .

. textbook middle class by doing away with this specialised and repetitive employment we are doing away with the middle class mainly in truth, computers don’t really distinguish between the rich and the poor they’re also going to do away with the upper-class jobs in medicine there are certain specialties that involve spending a lot of time comparing large quantities of information on one patient after another after another after another repetition specialisation and data and you already know who loves this shit so that’s what this video’s about about how computers or robots, or algorithms or artificial intelligence, or whatever you want to call them are going to steal our jobs no no, not exactly as you’ll recall already in the first industrial revolution the machines did away with the craftsmen but they also created hundreds of new jobs to operate those same machines there are studies that say that over the next four years automation will destroy 75 million jobs the last great crisis destroyed 30 million but it will also create 133 million jobs routine jobs are disappearing from factories but people will be required to supervise, programme or design the robots the same is happening in the rest of companies a computer programme may destroy thousands of jobs but people will be required to supervise the programmes and algorithms and make the best decisions in other words, we’re creating new jobs and very well-paid ones at that the problem is they also require a high level of studies and that isn’t something everyone can afford but not only is there a need for people to lead or supervise another type of work is being created at the other end one that computers still can’t do and this work is accessible to almost everyone but it’s shitty work, badly-paid and extremely temporary think of fast-food ‘riders’ or those apps where people do all sorts of things for 20 Euros what the Economy Professor Guy Standing would call precarious employment that’s what the video’s about automation is creating a world that has above all high-paying jobs and low-paying jobs where before there was a ladder you could climb even if you started at a low-paying job now there’s going to be a wall of all the people who are going to be left out those who can afford to study whatever is required to access this type of employment will get the jobs the rest will stall here, with no chance to climb up this is called polarisation we’re dividing society into two separate poles many studies confirm this the low-paying jobs and high-paying jobs are the only jobs that are growing meanwhile, many middle class jobs are in danger this is happening in Europe in the US. and everywhere in the world and the reason is that the majority of specialised and repetitive jobs many of them based on processing data that are disappearing as a result of automation are here in the middle we’re at risk of going back to a more divided society rich and poor just like before the industrial revolution this is a fucking catastrophe remember.

. . the virtuous circle the middle class isn’t just useful for making purchases and to help boost production they also pay the majority of the taxes which a country uses to build what they call the welfare state a healthcare system for everyone pensions, state schools, employment benefits for the unemployed if we destroy the middle class we are blowing up.

. . society but I have good news oh, right no, that comes later no, I have bad news and you’re already viewing this video and still haven’t got a job you’re studying, training to try and get a job in such a complicated future in order to train this new type of worker the modern education system emerged but we’ll talk about that later the problem with this education system is that it’s mainly based on memorising facts completing repetitive exercises specialising in one thing and following orders do you think I’m exaggerating?

in 2017 in the entrance exam for the best University in Japan a robot already achieved a better grade than 80% of the students the Project Director said she was alarmed at how a non-intelligent machine performed better than our own children computers have exceeded all our expectations in processing data quickly completing repetitive exercises specialising in one thing and following orders and they’re going to continue to do just that when we created them we believed their calculating power would increase like this realistically, it’s growing like this there are those who say that by 2030 they’ll exceed the calculation capacity of a human brain meanwhile we’re still set on educating our youth by memorising facts completing repetitive exercises asking them to specialise in one thing and to follow orders preparing them for jobs that are on the verge of disappearing unless they are a part of that society that will indeed be able to afford that extra training required to be here I repeat it’s impossible to compete with computers in this technology isn’t the problem we are the problem we’ve been preparing ourselves for centuries to become a species of mediocre artificial intelligence but surprise! true artificial intelligence has finally arrived so. .

. is this the video’s message? that up until now, we’d been doing OK but that the fourth industrial revolution is pushing us towards disaster?