DEUTSCHLAND: Überraschende Umfrage zur Bundestagswahl 2025 - Weidel mit der AFD weiter im Höhenflug

Numbers are particularly interesting, of course, during election campaigns . That's why we welcome Janina Mütze, the managing director of the opinion research institute Civey, to our election check. “Good morning, Janina.

” “Good morning. ” Yes, if you now look at the numbers: Which party has had the most convincing federal election campaign so far? “Yes, you’re asking a very specific question.

Many people have the impression that the election campaign hasn't really gotten going yet. The Sunday questions are still a bit stagnant, there isn't much movement. But if you ask who has been convincing so far, then the result is certainly astonishing for many.

Because the AfD comes first. It is the party that is particularly present on social media . We haven't talked much about posters yet.

It is in first place, followed by the CDU/CSU and further behind the Greens and SPD. The Chancellor's party is also further behind. That's very exciting because we see a much stronger support for the AfD , especially among young people, 18 to 29 year olds .

They are much more likely to say that the party has convinced. And that probably has something to do with the social media presence. ” So that means: The most convincing election campaign in this federal election has already been determined?

“I would be a little cautious, because we know that the program – that is, the programs – have only just been published. The election campaign, which is also visible on the streets, is actually just beginning. But in terms of presence, there is this difference that so far the AfD has been perceived as being significantly more present than other parties.

” Now they always say in principle: the top candidate must fit the election program. Can you see differences between the individual parties? “It is actually the case that voters always say very strongly that the programs are more important than the candidate.

This is what people say: What matters most to them is the program. Many people would therefore like to see a change of direction in the election campaign. There needs to be a change in policy, a new direction - also given the fact that trust in political institutions is currently very low and many are frustrated with the traffic light politics of the last few years.

Nevertheless, we see that candidates have an influence. In 2021, for example, Olaf Scholz won because he was seen as having more strength than the other two candidates. So that can also be relevant.

” What is also interesting is which top candidates have so far conveyed their parties’ issues best. “Yes, you can see that although Friedrich Merz is perceived to be more present overall , Alice Weidel is already in second place . As I said at the beginning, this can also be explained by the fact that it was noticed much more strongly on social channels.

She has noticed how she can use the space to her advantage - even with new statements that polarize and perhaps also fall into the 'fake news' category. That's why it's remarkable that it's in second place. ” Now programmatics is one thing, but the “personality factor” also plays a role.

Who is ahead? “We at least asked about sympathy. And in terms of likeability we see a slightly different podium: Robert Habeck is in first place.

He is considered the most likeable candidate. However, the fluctuations are not particularly high for all of the candidates surveyed . I don't know if we even asked Olaf Scholz , but he's probably at least as low.

" "Well, you can be happy about that, especially the supporters of the Greens. But you can't win an election with sympathy alone. Of course, it still doesn't hurt if someone is perceived as sympathetic.

What stands out: 22% Alice Weidel in second place – a narrow gap between Habeck and Weidel. That's crazy. " "Yes, I think the next 40 days will show a lot.

We have different camps in society, and they can no longer be easily separated convince. Polarization – I think that will be the keyword until February 23rd. ” Thank you for these interesting facts and figures.

“Until the next election check, thank you.