Trump will already be a ‘lame duck president on Day One,' says Hayes

good evening from New York I'm Chris Hayes well here we go Mike Johnson has been elected Speaker of the House on the first ballot with an asterisk technically as a you know pass fail the very first round of this new Maga era of governance it was a pass by the bear possible margin but if you're grading Mike Johnson's performance today in the Republicans in general I don't think you give him an a now again on paper this should have been straightforward pro- former vote that's what these traditionally have been until this era Republicans control the

House of Representatives Donald Trump the incoming president gave Johnson his complete and total endorsement and so You' think that's that but a group of nine House Republicans were reluctant to back Donald Trump's guy and with Johnson working with such a narrow majority nines a pretty big number now after initially airing their dissatisfaction six of those Republicans who originally didn't even vote right they eventually came back into the fold still not enough there were three other congressmen Thomas Massie Kentucky Norman of South Carolina and Keith self of Texas who all voted for someone other than Johnson

which would Doom his ability to get elected on the first ballot it looked like Johnson was going to go down he'd lost basically but wanting to sa face Johnson held the vote open for an unusually long time instead of telling the votes and moving on to the second ballot during that time he huddled with Representatives Norman and self presumably offer them some kind of deal or kolti when Donald Trump himself got on the cell phone with the two congressmen well then apparently things changed according to Congressman Norman Congresswoman Nancy mace remember her called Trump on

her cell phone from the floor of the house Trump was you'll be shocked to hear on the golf course of the time told them I'm playing golf mace handed her phone over to Norman a conversation was had multiple conversations in fact and then the two congressmen changed their votes to Mike Johnson handing him on the speakership so Johnson can technically say won on the first ballot but again a little shaky hardly a resounding vote of confidence in fact 11 Republicans then signed a letter to Johnson effectively saying they only voted for him so as not

to delay the certification of the presidential votes on Monday that happens on January 6 I don't know if you knew that but January 6 is the day that happens it's going to happen on Monday and warning Mike Johnson to watch his step now this sends a message that it is not a United Conference remember they're talking about a whole big ambitious legislative agenda they have not resolved any of the internal conflicts that have caused all the chaos through the last two years when they didn't really have a big agenda remember they have burned through a

speaker and a temporary speaker and finally landed on Mike Johnson and all of this today speaks to a broader question that I I genuinely think is underappreciated in the post-election take Fest and it's this how much political Capital does Donald Trump have on day one of his presidency right January 20th takes the oath Donald Trump will already be a lame duck president he is term limited by the 22nd amendment and that isn't to say he won't do dangerous Reckless destructive things or maybe even try some cockamamy scheme to stay in office it's not to say

he doesn't control the Republican Party he very much does right but it's also true that with every passing the day the way this works is he sheds a little more of his political capital I I think argu believe that it was at its highest point around you know 2 in the morning the day after the election right right after right after he pulled off I would say truly the most improbable political comeback in American history and right shortly thereafter Republicans were saying things like this there's no question he's a leader of our party so now

he's got a mission statement his mission and his goals and objectives whatever that is we need to embrace it all of it every single word in his mission statement if Donald Trump says jump 3 ft high and scratch your head we all jump 3 ft high and scratch our heads that's it sort of a kind of beta approach to life but you do you but things move fast in Washington two weeks ago you had this big shutdown fight where Elon Musk rushed in remember and he took the lead there was a a kind of vacuum

right it was just going to go along and then musk went crazy on it again he was the initiator he was the source of energy and he had a demand and his demand remember this just a few weeks ago right was to cut spending from this Government funding bill and to pair it down and then Donald Trump Donald Trump not wanting to be upstaged he rushed in with his Demand right and he asked Republicans in fact demanded in fact instructed them with a threat of a primary that they had to take care of the debt

ceiling or he would primary anyone who doesn't and so what happened then remember Republicans listened to musk and not to Trump they did cut the size of the bill to keep the government open they shed a bunch of stuff they did nothing on the debt ceiling and as far as we can tell Trump was just like okay fine now over in the Senate things aren't looking like completely Rosy either remember that Senator Rick Scott a Florida lost the vote to be Senate Majority Leader he was running for that position for a while and you might

remember he was the one who said that the Senate would roll over should roll over should entirely give up its role to advise and consent on cabinet pit right now it doesn't look like that initial plan is going to happen that was the big thing they all said right this sort of shock and awe announcement they're going to just recess them and appoint everyone and again speaking of com Trump's cabinet picks which are sort of early tests of political Capital he's already had two of them go down before the year even turned over right before

the confirmation process even began the Republican Senate res refused to really even entertain the idea of Matt Gates serving as Attorney General of the United States and you know could blame them Trump's pick to run the DEA Florida Sheriff Chad conister had to withdraw from consideration after just 3 days apparently because the Republican base thought he had been too strict about covid restrictions back in 2020 all of which is to say again maybe Donald Trump is not quite as politically strong as he wants you to believe again there's context there's history here lame duck president

historically have struggled to push through bold agendas here's what George W bush famously said just days after he won re-election 2004 when he was sort of at his Peak as well and it's the first time a republican won the popular vote since his dad's win in 1988 I earned capital in the campaign political capital and now I intend to spend it it is my style that's what happened in uh after the 2000 election I earned some Capital I've earned capital in this election and I'm going to spend it for for what I what I told

the people I'd spend it on which is you've heard the agenda Social Security and tax reform oh yeah the agenda tax reform meaning enormous tax cuts for rich people and privatizing Social Security that was the big bold agenda he was going to use his political Capital to privatize Social Security privately Bush was telling his allies this quote we have to move quickly because after that I'll be quacking like a duck right he understood the longer time goes on the more the political Capital drains out of you and he wasn't able to privatize Social Security in

large part because Democrats United against it his party then got shellacked the 2006 midterms and then remember this thing called the global financial crisis happened under his watch he was historically unpopular his approval rating dropping to just 25% during the 2008 election again the pass is not prologue things may go completely differently this time around but this is just the last time that we had a second term Republican who was a lame duck quacking like a duck as he said now Trump's situation is genuinely unprecedented remember we haven't been there here before in the country's

history he is the first president since the introduction of constitutional term limits to serve a second non-consecutive term so again we got no idea how things are going to unfold there isn't really A playbook like Bush in 2004 Republicans have a big agenda weirdly enough it involves huge tax cuts for corporations and rich people maybe going after Social Security Medicare Medicaid some things never change the Republican party has political power there's no question about that they won this election no question about that but the question of just how large that power is how absolute how

disciplined they will all be how long it will last all of that is very much an open question so e