If US and China Go To War, Who Loses (Hour by Hour)

Hour 0. Sitting in his office surrounded by his most trusted advisors, Xi Jinping feels ready. Over the past decade or more, he’s spent billions upon billions modernizing China’s military.

His nation now has nuclear weapons – around 500 of them[a] – and he’s built one of the world’s largest navies. Add to all of that the fact that China’s military has more active members than any other nation, with 2. 035 million people to call on.

[b] He's going to bring war to the United States. But to do so, he has to carefully coordinate attacks throughout the Pacific. He knows that the United States has bases in Japan and South Korea – around 190 in those two countries alone – and a powerful navy that, though smaller than his, packs a lot more firepower.

A full-frontal assault on the United States without taking care of those problems first would be suicide. He needs to secure the Pacific, giving China a route toward the American mainland, as a priority. His attack doesn’t begin with missile launches.

It starts on the cyber front. For years, China has been working on cyber technology that would allow it to hack into American infrastructure and military defense systems, limiting America’s response to an attack in the process. On occasion, China gets caught out.

In December 2023, for instance, the United States conducted an operation to disrupt a network of small office/home office, or SOHO, routers that China had taken control of using the KV Botnet to mask its hacking activities. That was unfortunate for Xi. But it won’t stop the first stage of his attack.

Xi gives the okay and dozens of cyberattacks begin. Chinese hackers work feverishly, targeting American water systems, electrical grids, and communications systems, with a special focus on any that are located near key military installations. Further attacks take place within the networks of companies that provide critical services to America’s military, as well as attacks on the systems and transportation methods that will be used by the United States to deliver aid to Taiwan in the case of a Chinese invasion.

That last step is critical. To reach the United States, China has to secure a passage through the Pacific. Taiwan, which China has claimed for decades should be part of the People’s Republic anyway, is chosen as the main target.

By securing that island, China can break through the nations in the Pacific that are allied to the United States, including Japan and South Korea, and clear its route to the American mainland. Hour 1. The United States is scrambling.

It’s no stranger to Chinese hackers, but it’s never faced an operation of this scale before. The country’s success against Volt Typhoon – the elite group of Chinese hackers that were responsible for the KV Botnet attacks mentioned earlier – revealed that China has its fingers in major networks. Rail, mass transit, maritime, water, and pipeline systems were all under threat.

And though Volt Tycoon has been mostly eradicated, the sheer scale of the disruption occurring in the U. S. reveals that it was far from the only hacker group China had in play.

America is left chasing shadows, at least for a couple of hours, which is all China needs to start the next stage of its assault. Xi Jinping gives the okay for the next – and boldest – part of his strategy. Activating the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, or PLARF.

The group has around 120,000 members, who combine to operate six known ballistic missile bases throughout China. However, PLARF’s real strength lies in the sheer number of missiles it has at its disposal. Recent estimates from the U.

S. Naval Institute place the number at somewhere around 4,000, all of which are capable of targeting ships moving at sea, in addition to static land-based targets. Both capabilities will be needed by Xi.

In arranging this attack, he’s had to make some difficult decisions. He knew that a launch against Taiwan was inevitable, and the island nation became his first target. A missile barrage begins, with air support being provided by the recently upgraded airbases at Longtian, Zhangzhou, and Huian.

All three are supporting China with fleets of Shenyang J-16 fighters, launching missiles of their own while engaging Taiwanese defenses in the air. The tougher attacks focus on the U. S.

Pacific Fleet. Numbering around 200 ships, along with 1,500 aircraft and 150,000 military personnel, that fleet is the biggest barrier that stands in the way of Xi’s ambitions to invade the United States. It covers almost half of the world’s surface, stretching from Antarctica to the Arctic Circle, taking in the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean in the process.

Xi can’t hit everything in that fleet. But his goal is to strategically weaken the fleet in the early hours of his new war, eliminating America’s ability to rapidly respond to his actions. To do that, he needs a three-pronged missile attack.

First, he has to target the naval bases the United States has set up in Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. It’s a risky move. Any missile strike on these nations will surely cause collateral damage, potentially bringing all three of them into the war in support of the U.

S. But failure to strike now means leaving nearly 200 bases ready to launch an immediate counterattack supported by around 79,000 troops. Xi can’t take that risk.

Hordes of Dongfeng 26, or DF-26, missiles are launched toward America’s bases in Japan and South Korea. Each missile has a range of 2,485 miles, easily ensuring they can reach their targets. They’re accompanied by shorter-range missiles, such as the DF-16, for a simple reason: Xi needs his DF-26s for attacks further afield.

Those very missiles are also part of the second part of China’s missile barrage – attacking closer to the United States. More are sent flying toward Guam, targeting the Andersen Air Force Base in Yigo, as well as Naval Base Guam in Santa Rita. Xi also unleashes the new jewel in China’s missile crown to strike Hawaii.

The DF-27 is a hypersonic missile that can just about reach America’s east coast and is capable of evading U. S. missile defenses.

It’ll be Xi’s chief weapon when attacking the American mainland, at least during the early stages of the war. Finally, the third strike: Attacking American ships that are currently in the Pacific. Chief among the targets will be the small fleet of cruisers America has in the waters near China, including the USS Shiloh and USS Mobile Bay.

All told, there are nine of these ships – all packed with heavy armaments and strong anti-air defenses – that China hopes to either eliminate or damage heavily. Secondary targets include the much larger fleet of U. S.

Navy Destroyers, which pack less of a punch than the country’s cruisers but will still be enough to cause serious damage to the Chinese fleet if they’re allowed to go unchecked. There are dozens to target and Xi knows that he won’t be able to take out all of them. But the more he can destroy with missiles now, the easier he’ll find his invasion of Taiwan and subsequent passage to America.

However, Xi’s missiles won’t have clear paths to their targets. Though his cyberattacks have left the United States scrambling, it hasn’t shut down the country’s missile defense systems. America’s DSP satellites – overseen by its Space Force – easily detect China’s missile launches, giving President Joe Biden time to organize the country’s defenses.

Chief among these will be its Ground-Based Interceptors, or GBIs, of which there are currently 44 active in the United States. Most of those systems, 40, are stationed in Alaska, though they’re still capable of destroying intercontinental ballistic missiles, ICBMs, traveling at around 15,000 miles per hour. The other four are stationed in California, much closer to China’s Hawaiian targets, and will be responsible for providing most of America’s defenses against China’s missile barrage.

There’s just one problem: What if any of the missiles contain nuclear warheads? Biden consults his advisors, who conclude that possibility is unlikely. American satellites show that the missiles are on course to hit its Pacific bases and Hawaii, suggesting a conventional strike.

If Xi were going nuclear, his ICBMs would be on their way to Washington and other key strategic locations in the American mainland. Right now, the strategy is clear – evacuate troops from the anticipated strike zones and hunker down. A counterattack will come.

But at present, the U. S. has to rely on its missile defense systems.

Across the Pacific, Xi watches and waits as the first of his missile barrages travel toward their targets in Japan and South Korea. Both have activated their missile defense systems to guard America’s bases, with the platform they rolled out alongside the U. S.

toward the end of 2023 giving them advance notice of the missiles China has launched. Many get shot out of the sky, falling harmlessly into the Pacific. But the sheer number of Chinese missiles overwhelm the defenses.

Okinawa is practically destroyed. As home to most of America’s overseas military in Japan, it was the chief target of these strikes. At the Kadena Airbase, missiles rain down on F-15 Eagle fighters, E-3 Sentry planes, and KC-135 Stratotankers.

The latter are especially important targets. They’ll limit America’s ability to refuel its aircraft in the air, restricting them to using the bases that China is so steadfastly attacking. The strike could be considered a success, killing thousands of American troops in the process.

But Xi knows the bases aren’t fully out of commission. He can’t launch a ground-based invasion just yet, meaning the surviving crews at these bases will be able to rebuild quickly enough to continue to serve as launching points for the U. S.

Air Force. That’s okay. He only needs them down for a few days.

More missiles make their way toward cruisers and destroyers that the U. S. has stationed in the Pacific.

These ships are a little harder to strike, not least because they’re not remaining still. Orders from American command have told all to start moving in erratic patterns, hoping to send Chinese missiles off course in the process. The tactic works in some cases, though not in others.

China is successful in cutting down about half of America’s cruisers, as well as several dozen destroyers. Again, a qualified success for Xi. A few minutes later, China’s DF-27 and DF-26 missiles are drawing nearer to Hawaii.

Dozens are shot out of the skies by California’s missile defense systems, but they can’t provide complete coverage. Many more break through, striking ships including the USS Frank E Petersen and USS Hopper. Xi had hoped his strike would also take out at least some of the 13 submarines stationed in Hawaii, but no such luck.

Even with his cyberattacks wreaking havoc, the commanders and crews of those submarines received orders to submerge underwater, safe from the missile barrage, until the U. S. was ready to fight back.

By the end of the first few hours of the conflict, China has expended nearly a quarter of its 4,000 missiles. It has wreaked devastation on the American bases in Asia, though at the cost of drawing Japan and South Korea into Xi’s war. America’s Pacific fleet has been severely weakened, with Xi’s cyberattacks also limiting the speed in which the U.

S. can respond to what he’s going to do next. The strike’s success wasn’t total.

But it was enough. Day 2. Having bought himself time with his attack on the United States, leaving his main enemy in a temporary state of disarray, Xi can focus on his immediate target – Taiwan.

China has spent the last day battering Taiwan with short-range missiles. The barrage has been successful in taking out several targets, including the smaller islands surrounding Taiwan, but it’s also faced a steadfast defense from the U. S.

-made Patriot air defense system stationed on the island, as well as Taiwan’s own “Sky Bow” surface-to-air ballistic missile defense systems. Still, the barrage will have to end soon, if only because Xi wants to send ground troops in to take the island. He can’t risk killing his own people in friendly-fire situations.

After a 24-hour bombardment in which China expends hundreds of missiles, Xi assesses the damage he’s caused. Crucially, his attacks on America’s overseas bases, as well as America itself, will delay its navy in reaching the Taiwan Strait. And the missiles he’s fired at Taiwan have severely weakened its naval defenses while fighter planes from the Longtian, Zhangzhou, and Huian keep the country’s air force occupied.

He feels ready to start landing troops on the Taiwanese mainland, but therein he finds a problem: His landing options are limited. That’s partially due to the actions of Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen. She’s been preparing for an attack from China for several months, especially in the wake of Beijing growing bolder by conducting military and naval options in the Taiwan Strait.

As soon as the missiles started flying, Tsai sent orders to defensive positions on both sides of the island. To the east, Taiwan benefits from having an extensive network of cliffs. Tsai anticipates that Xi will look to blockade that side of the island with his navy, but is unlikely to launch a full invasion from the east.

Still, soldiers are placed on alert, telling them to prepare to fight against ground troops that might try to climb the cliffs, which have gradients of at least 15%. If need be, those troops will receive orders to destroy the routes built through the cliffs that lead to the mainland. Her main focus lies in Taiwan’s west.

As the coast closest to China, it’s going to be the point of ingress into the island. Tsai places all 15 major ports and harbors on that coast on high alert, with orders for their destruction in place if China’s forces get near. Tsai can’t afford to allow China to set up a naval presence on the island itself if it manages to invade.

Then, there are Taiwan’s beaches. All are heavily fortified, with any Chinese troops that manage to land having to make their way through scores of barbed wire-laden defenses just to achieve any hope of reaching the roads that lead to Taipei. The waters leading to most of those beaches are less than 50 feet deep, meaning China can’t land troops en masse.

It must take them most of the way before ferrying them across in smaller vessels, all while being subjected to missile fire from Taiwan. Those waters are also packed with shallow mines, with the beaches also containing anti-landing spikes that will prevent China’s tanks from making inroads. And, if worst comes to worst, Tsai can collapse the roads leading into Taipei from the West, forcing Chinese troops to navigate challenging terrain if they ever hope to reach Taiwan’s capital.

Tsai is going to make this a war of attrition. And that spells bad news for Xi. Day 3.

The United States is almost ready to counter the initial Chinese offensive. But before it does, Biden puts on his diplomatic hat as he prepares to exploit a key weakness in Xi’s plan. One of China’s biggest challenges in a war is economic.

The country relies heavily on importing goods, spending $2. 56 trillion in 2023 alone. Biden has spent the last three days organizing heavy sanctions against China, with America’s network of allies finally paying off.

China will not only struggle to import goods and equipment from the United States, but it’ll also be cut off from its European trade partners. All agree not to sell to – or buy from – China, essentially creating a trade blockade for as long as the war lasts. That blockade extends to oil.

China imports 11. 8 million barrels of oil per day to keep itself running. Much of that oil comes from Russia, which is now responsible for about 19% of the oil China buys annually.

However, the other 81% comes from countries like Saudi Arabia, which are allied to the United States. Leveraging diplomatic pressure, as well as the concerns that other Asian nations, such as Saudi Arabia, have related to Chinese expansion, Biden is able to cut off most of the oil reaching China. Yes, Russia will still supply Xi, though it isn’t able to cover the massive shortfall that results from America’s sanctions.

And given Putin’s war in Ukraine, he also can’t risk Russia’s trade with other countries for the sake of solely supporting China, especially given that he faces his own sanctions. Xi didn’t expect this. Now, he faces a countdown.

China has to defeat the United States in a matter of months, or else its resources will dwindle to the point where it’s practically starved out of the fight that it started. Day 4. With sanctions in place and trade routes in the process of being cut off, Biden’s next move is to speak to his allies in NATO.

After all, China directly attacked America on its own soil by launching missiles at Hawaii. It also attacked America-owned military bases overseas, which would also constitute an attack on the U. S.

All of this plays in Biden’s favor for one reason: Article 5 of the NATO charter. According to this article, if any NATO ally or member nation is the victim of an armed attack by another country, every other NATO member will consider this an act of violence against themselves. In short, China’s attack on the United States has brought most of Europe into the fold.

Biden has been cooperating with NATO members from the moment he detected China’s missiles. Collectively, that makes him ready to utilize the power of 31 nations, including what’s left of the United States’ defenses. The focal point of the counterattack is obvious – the Taiwan Strait.

Xi has failed to take Taiwan with his missile barrage and now faces an extended conflict in which he’s losing thousands of troops every day to his attempts to land on Taiwanese beaches. Even if he manages to break through Taiwan’s defenses by simply throwing sheer numbers at the island, his troops will face an urban warfare campaign that will see them fight tooth and nail for every street they manage to claim. Xi didn’t expect this.

And this war of attrition all adds up to time that the U. S. and its allies can take to prepare and attack.

The strategy is to combine America’s naval resources with those of its NATO allies, as well as the navies of South Korea, Japan, and Australia. The latter will also be a focal point of the counterattack, as China neglected to destroy the bases America has set up in Australia. The United States sends a fleet of ships, including most of its stock of 11 aircraft carriers, toward the Taiwan Strait.

They’re accompanied by one of the U. K. ’s aircraft carriers – the HMS Queen Elizabeth – loaded with Typhoon FGR4 and F-35B Lightning jets.

Similar support comes from Canada, which commits half of its 12 frigates to the American cause, as well as Japan, which sends most of its fleet of 36 destroyers. South Korea hesitates. It’s happy to support the U.

S. in any way that it can. But it also has to be wary of North Korea, which could see China’s attack as an opportunity for it to start a war with its southern neighbor.

If South Korea commits its naval or aerial resources to America now, it leaves itself open to attack. Biden understands this, resulting in South Korea’s role being to keep watch over North Korea to ensure it doesn’t get involved in the conflict. And now, the U.

S. has an allied fighting force that’s capable of fighting against China in the sea or air. The fleet sets sail.

Week 2. Xi has been bombarding Taiwan to no avail. Every attempt to land ground troops on Taiwan’s beaches is met with missile strikes and fierce beach combat.

Yes, he’s slowly whittling away at those defenses. But for each victory he achieves, a road is destroyed or a tunnel collapsed by Taiwan, forcing his troops to divert over difficult terrain to get to Taipei. The few who manage to reach Taiwan’s capital have been destroyed in urban warfare.

This was supposed to be a quick victory. It had to be. Every day that China doesn’t control Taiwan is another day in which the American counteroffensive draws nearer.

Finally, two weeks after his missile launches, Xi faces the prospect of American naval and aerial assets reaching the Taiwan Strait. Worse yet, they’re supported by NATO and Japan, neither of which wants to see China gain more influence, be it in the Pacific or the Americas. Worse yet for China, its navy, though larger than America’s, doesn’t compare in terms of sheer firepower.

Though Xi was successful in destroying almost two dozen of America’s destroyers in his missile barrage, that still leaves 68 to contend with – around 20 more than China has. And though China has more Corvettes and patrol boats, neither will withstand the combined naval firepower being brought into the Taiwan Strait. Worse yet for Xi, America has an ace in the hole – its Rapid Drgon tactic.

Over the past couple of years, the United States has been retrofitting some of its cargo aircraft so they’re capable of dropping pallets of long-range missiles. Each pallet can be stocked with up to 30 AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles, which have a range of between 229 and 1,118 miles, depending on which version of the missile is launched. Stacked into America’s MC-130J aircraft – which Xi didn’t target as he didn’t believe them to be a threat – these pallets start raining cruise missiles down onto the Taiwan Strait.

Those missiles serve two purposes. If they hit a Chinese ship, their 990-pound WDU-42/B-Penetrator warheads can easily destroy most targets. But even if they fail to hit, such a large barrage of missiles launched simultaneously will confuse the missile defense systems built into China’s larger ships, as well as those in the three airbases that are the launching point for China’s fighter jets.

While the missile defenses are focused on a flurry of JASSM cruise missiles, more targeted strikes can take out targets. The allied forces turn the tide in the Taiwan Strait. Month 2.

Xi has lost the clear passage into Taiwan that he’d established during his initial invasion. He’s still getting troops onto the mainland, though each landing is subjected to Taiwanese defenses along with assaults from the U. S.

and its allies’ navies. Worse yet, he’s lost air superiority. In truth, he never truly had it.

Taiwan’s 142 F-16 fighter jets, many of which have been upgraded, may be technologically inferior to China’s J-20s. The Infra-Red Search and Track, or IRST, built into the J-20 means it’s more capable of tracking and eliminating a target than the F-16. But Tsai knew this, and knew that support was coming from the U.

S. She’s used her F-16s to delay rather than defeat China, just as she’s used her beach and urban warfare tactics to keep China from sending hundreds of thousands of troops into Taipei. Now, the U.

S. and NATO are in the Taiwan Strait, and they’re pushing Chinese forces back to their home country. Constant missile barrages on the Longtian, Zhangzhou, and Huian air bases have rendered them practically unusable, making it a struggle for China to get new fighters into the air as quickly as it had managed before.

America’s aircraft carriers – of which it brings eight to the Taiwan Strait – can each hold around 75 fighters, bringing the allied forces to a total of 600 when at full capacity. Add to that the Rapid Drgon strategy and America and its allies are shutting down every attack China attempts. It’s not long before America’s navy cuts off the passage into Taiwan.

Cut off from their target, China’s naval and air forces begin a retreat, leaving the few thousand Chinese troops still in Taiwan stranded. They’ll be picked off by Taiwan’s forces in Taipei, assuming they get there. And with the U.

S. now firmly entrenched in the Taiwan Strait, it’s able to land troops onto the island’s beaches to attack the remnants of China’s forces from the rear. It’s a lethal pincer movement that soon puts paid to Xi’s invasion.

Still, it hasn’t all been clear sailing for the U. S. China has managed to use its strong submarine fleet, with its six Shang-Class nuclear submarines leading the way, to take out two of America’s aircraft carriers.

It’s a difficult loss, especially given that those carriers housed about 150 fighters between them. But America’s submarines are just as lethal. Though it has fewer submarines than China – around 60 to China’s 78[c] – its crews are better trained and have fewer targets to strike.

Both of China’s aircraft carriers, brought into the conflict due to the American assaults on its air bases, are taken out, minimizing China’s impact from the air. Xi has to face a very real possibility: He’s about to lose this war. Month 3.

China has stubbornly refused to give in to the overwhelming force being applied to it. The country’s navy lies in tatters, with only a fleet of patrol boats guarding its coast to back the few corvettes and frigates it has left. Xi has called his ships back, anticipating an invasion by the United States into the Chinese mainland.

Xi has failed to take Taiwan. And in attacking the United States directly, he’s only discovered that America’s NATO allies take Article 5 very seriously. The same goes for other allies, including Japan and South Korea, which have aided the U.

S. both because of their military alliances with the country and because neither wants to see the spread of Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. Xi knows he miscalculated.

Now, he faces a very big question: Does he launch nuclear weapons? China has around 500 nukes, as well as ICBMs capable of reaching the continental United States. His country’s CSS4 Mod2 Mod3 missiles [d]could do the job thanks to their 8,000-mile range.

The DF-41 can also hit the mark as it’s capable of traveling nearly 7,500 miles. But Xi thinks better of it. Launching his nuclear weapons against the United States would mean a response in kind.

And while America’s Minuteman III ICBMs lack the range of his missiles, the country’s submarines and aerial bombers could easily drop nukes all over China if provoked. Ultimately, China is forced to capitulate. Though its military would prove a strong match for the United States alone, and could even have the potential to defeat its American counterpart, it simply can’t stand up to such a powerful united front.

Taiwan proved stronger than Xi expected, with his failed invasion meaning plans to reach the American mainland never got off the ground. And with most of Europe – thanks to NATO – gunning for him, he can’t escape the fact that he’s been overwhelmed. Add to all of this the effects of the sanctions and trade blockades America created within days of him starting his war.

They’ve slowly sapped the morale of the Chinese people, resulting in them being ready for surrender. America wins the war. But it's a win that came at a cost.

It will take the U. S. years to rebuild its war-torn navy.

And along with its NATO allies, it will be heavily involved in imposing military restrictions on China for years to come. However, it’s proven the impact that its cooperative approach to defense can have in a battle against one of its greatest rivals, putting any other major military power that might dare to attack the U. S.

on notice in the process. Of course, this is just one of many potential scenarios that could play out if China and the U. S.

went to war. It’s also optimistic in favor of the U. S.

But what could China do to prevent this series of events from happening? Would they happen at all, or do you think the U. S.

may struggle to receive the support it needs from NATO and its allies in Asia? Tell us what you think in the comments below. Now go check out US Navy's Plan to Defeat China in War or click this other video instead!