Scott Bessent | The Fallacy of Bidenomics: A Return to Central Planning | A New Supply-Side

hi everyone it is my great pleasure to introduce Scott bessent the founder CEO and chief investment officer of key Square group a global investment firm he launched in 2015 prior to that MrBesson served as Chief investment officer at soris fund management where he held a number of roles to the 1990s and 2000s among them overseeing investments in Europe outside the world of Finance he has taught economic history at Yale his Alma moer and been a prolific philanthropist including in his home state of South Carolina please join me in welcoming Scott bessent Scott you've been a respected voice in financial markets for decades but you've only recently started weighing in publicly on larger questions of US public policy and the stakes of the 2024 election what motivated you to start speaking out about the direction of American Economic Policy yeah well ran first thanks to you Manhattan Institute for having me uh and when when R invited me he said you know just just so you know the we have Heather McDonald we we have Chris ruo I said okay you have made those two so I don't need anymore but it's a good question I I I've always been politically interested for macro investing you're always politically adjacent because geopolitics you know I I people ask me what is what is macro investing I said we we live at the edge of geopolitics economics and gravity and you know eventually gravity wins uh so you know for a long time I've been analyzing political situations economic situations and I just decided that 2023 2024 is important for me to come out from behind my desk because I think we are at a very unique moment here and you I I would list three reasons or or three things that I'm focused on is one just in in the US I I am alarmed by the the size of these deficits and the spending we we do not have a tax collection problem we have a spending problem and I I've never really seen anything quite well we've never seen anything quite like this you know I I'm an economic historian and and for anyone wants for for better or worse I can tell you you know what the budget deficit was under Lyndon Johnson 1967 as a percent of GDP and this this is really alarming in terms of this seven 6 7% deficit during peace time during a non-recessionary time and I I think that the Biden Administration knows what they're doing they're too very different choices for America they have a you Central planning top- down mind set going back to you know it's kind of the the 60s and the 70s Show Revisited I was at Yale when James Tobin was there he was Janet yellen's the PHD advisor and I I thought we had put all this on the scrap peap of history but it's back and it it's not working any better this time I I would argue probably worse so you know I I think that we were confronted with that choice and may maybe we'll get into you know my my view of whether we want to call it biomics B inflation sometimes they call it Biden itis because it's it's almost like you know an acute disease it's just always there you don't know when it's going to flare up when when I'm in a particularly bad mood I call it bism like peronism or the bimo um so and you know I I think of the other side we we see from Trump 1. 0 it it is not a a strict adherence to Reagan's principles but it it's a pretty good 21st century adaptation and it really worked for everybody and you know I I'll bring that back back to to number three but you know igniting the the private sector and the kind of balanced across all income distributions and for Capital and labor growth that we had you know I I thought was phenomenal so that's number one number two I think as an economic historian and someone who's been in markets for 40 years you know I actually think I'm starting to look like it now is U you know I think we're also at a at a unique moment geopolitically and I I could see in the next few years that we are going to have to have some kind of a grand e global economic reordering it was something on on the equivalent of a New Britain Woods or if you want to go back like a a treat something back to the steel agreements or the Treaty of Versailles you know there's a very good chance that we are going to have to have that over the next four years and I'd like to be a part of it you know I i' I've studied this um I I think it's kind of a a unique skill set and then three the as both of your most recent panelist said that the Republican Coalition is now a very new Coalition and I am very dedicated and focused to making sure that keeps expanding and to make sure that this new group who's joined the Republican party that the policies are good for them and that we retain that those groups and continue growing you turn it into majorities two weeks ago here in DC the gentleman and I had a day with 150 or 200 black entrepreneurs and it was fascinating many of them are have always been Republicans some have just switched some are Trump curious and to spend the the day with these folks was so enlightening you know they they feel as though they are not getting adequate representation in the Republican party you know they're they're insulted by you know by the oh Don Donald Trump went to jail so that's why black people are voting for him like the these people at this event they are entrepreneurs they're business people they're first generation and they're rich like you know they are franchise owners they are car dealers and they they are not ivy league graduates who are senior vice presidents at a Fortune 500 company this is Main Street and you I think that that's the natural progression for the Republican Party so my my third reason for coming out behind my desk is to make sure that that constituency gets bigger and bigger that's fascinating I wonder uh you've painted a pretty bleak P picture of Biden's economic agenda but you know I think he would say look uh my agenda has been a historic success labor markets are tight the inflation reduction Act and the chips act are spurring investment and you know while the president acknowledges that inflation is been a challenge he'd argue that the worst is behind us let's drill in a bit about where you think a second Biden term will take the country economically because again you know what the president is saying is that you know this course is delivering um ultimately it's going to be delivering wage growth it's going to help us compete with China and what have you so when you're looking ahead to another four years of President Biden where do you see the US economy at the end of that yeah well back back to what was said in one of the earlier panels is he's giving away so much money why are the Pro program so unpopular there there's this movie called The King maker that's about a Mel DeMarcos and she's in a bus throwing up dollar bills and you know she's super popular son's president of the Philippines now so you know money can buy you vote in love and that's not happening this time and I I think to give give my overview when you've got this top down View and this you know turning machine where you think you can turn the dials the you know go kind of back to JFK's economic cabinet um the economy is too big and too complex the these are linear people with a linear program and they have gotten a linear result so the linear result the global result is it unemployment is low investment is high and everyone is unhappy so you it's been the output is fun but the nonlinearity in the system means that all the components really aren't working that well like i' I've been quoted before saying look I can make Zimbabwe great again if I had a 7% budget deficit and Reserve currency but you know and I I I think one one of the former panelists was getting at when they were talking about the FED putting on the brakes and the Biden Administration hitting the accelerator accelerator Brakes in Grand Prix racing is called two-footed driving and you know you're you're hitting the gas then you're hitting the brake and you're going around the corner and you know the engine burns out and I I think that's what's happening here and this inflation I think the American people aren't going to aren't going to forgive him for it so you don't think that the inflation is transitory you think that even though it's moderate ated somewhat you think that we're on a kind of knife edge where it could come back roaring back if you don't see a material change in Economic Policy look it it's always there it would re accelerate we we've had this very steep price level decline that I think has American seething seething and it my firm is not very good at we don't try to predict particular numbers we try to get the direction of travel and you know we're we're getting Employment Number tomorrow and may maybe the heat has come off the jobs Market but it's come up the jobs Market in a bad way through Mass unfettered immigration that should not be a tool in the toolkit for getting down inflation because you know back to the question of why everyone's unhappy is could you imagine what the bottom 25 % of wage earners wages would have been if we hadn't had depending on the number you want to use 10 15 20 million new arrivals and you know if if I look at these policies there there's this what I what I believe is a flawed macro machine and then they keep trying to make micro adjustments so they cause a great inflation housing market takes off uh then mortgage rates take off and young people or all people are now locked out of the housing market so we're we're going to give we're going to announce you know 400 a $10,000 starter kit and then a $400 a month subsidy and it it's just all these irregularities and contortions in in the system that that are so unhealthy and all they're doing is pushing the housing market up more M and but the the real problem in the housing market is going to come in 12 18 or 24 months because new arrivals typically take 24 months to start forming households so guess what there's going to be more competition for housing that's probably relatively fixed Supply well it's we're probably in a two or two and a half million dwelling deficit so you know it it's just with with this top down view you're just getting all of slice after slice of um the wow problems at all the micro levels so more housing insecurity maybe even more homelessness in the streets of some American cities uh and you know then you could try to say hey we'll build more public housing or what have you but of course that's not a great track record building on that many Americans are itching for a return to the lower interest rates that prevailed for most of the past 20 years others believe ultra low rates have overstimulated the economy and badly distorted the market for risky assets with the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank cutting their key policy rates just this week what do you expect from the FED over the coming months and what should the FED do do you think that right now just you know kind of grabbing J Powell by the lapel and just saying you know cut the key policy right now is the right step well look I I I think Bank of Canada and ECB can cut because the the Canadians and the Europeans exercise some level of fiscal Prudence so you know they they're not two-footed driving it is you there there is a natural economic cycle and you know J poell has been easing for whatever reason he felt compelled the ease Financial conditions last fall after the fomc meetings in November and December the statements were very anod and he walked out and in the press conference gave very doish guidance of rate he rate cuts are coming and did a massive ease and financial conditions by doing that what happened he pushed up the St Market which benefits the top 20% and then we're back to the bottom 50% who don't own assets they have debt so rates have had to stay higher for longer you know I I actually think that he's hurt Biden's chances by you re reigniting inflation pushing economic growth reaccelerating economic growth you when when it could have been slowing I you know I think they could have been cutting rates um but you they're not and you know I would also predict that it won't be a Slowdown in inflation that causes rates to get cut I think it will be an economic wobble when you say an economic wobble uh you mean that there's going to be um some kind of like you know maybe a quarter of negative growth or something like that yeah or or some some kind of a Slowdown in the econ I I think it'll be an economic slowdown right that that actually caused it but the Administration has a lot of tricks up their sleeve between November 5th November 6th November 7th everything's up for grabs but we're probably going to see I don't know 100 150 billion come out from the covid employee retention checks those checks are going to conveniently start getting mailed out next month fascinating and you've certainly seen student loan forgiveness a variety of other administrative measures that are designed to help buoy the economy who and back to the younger voters have really started to turn on President Biden you know I I I've seen some of the numbers and the under 35 cohort had been very very attached to the Democratic party and that's starting to move and I think a big portion of that housing I think the the other thing too is if you look now Philadelphia fed has been measuring credit card delinquencies since 2012 and we are at the highest rate of delinquencies since they've been measuring and that is primarily the the lower 25% income group but the other group that has very high credit card delinquencies is the 35 number fascinating because they don't have assets there's a stark difference between the tax policies being proposed by former president Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden let's start with Biden among other things the president has called for Steep tax increases on corporate income and investment income and he insists that this will leave and lower income households untouched now you've talked about your concerns about deficits and debt so where do you stand on Biden's approach and the particular tax increases that he's most focused on well to come back to your initial question why did I come out from behind my desk now I I view 2024 as the last chance to grow our way out of this problem it four four more years of layering on this amount of debt and then we end up in a permanent style European MS and maybe you have to go to um you know a higher taxation regime just to hold things in place you know all of France um I I do think now there there is a an opportunity to grow our way out of this but I I think it's this Biden um know laying onto the debt I am I am deeply cynical about this you know it's spin spin spin many of the assets maybe aren't productive clearly you know they they've gotten rid of scoring so you know you're you're replacing things that work with things that maybe even work less well you know so these could be stranded assets and now now they're going to say well you know we we've done all the spending we got to pay the piper and you know I I have a piece that came out yesterday and and it is part of a series that they ask about 10 or 12 people in the international economy a magazine how do we restart American productivity and my number one you you you do it through tax policy and you keep High return high after tax returns on Capital so raising these capital gains taxes or raising the taxes and raising the corporate taxes is just the wrong thing and you know it it is a a you know slight piece slight of hand when Biden says that he's not going to raise taxes on anyone making less than 400,000 because if you're going to move cap gains up to the the same level as ordinary income that's going to apply to everybody so I I I I think that this is just you know wor worse and worse and that this is and then there's the incidence of corporate taxes as well because that presumably has an impact on wages indirectly on consumers indirectly yeah look we we saw an investment boom you know 18 19 and the the other thing too is the 2017 Trump tax cut the the a lot of the deficits were front loaded because the investment expenses were in those years so these Biden deficits are actually worse because you the expenses was 100% on day one so you know I I I just think that this is kind of a d know a dynamism killer and then some of some of these other ideas like taxing realized capital gains you want to tax un realized capital gains if you want to drive the Venture Capital industry offshore yeah I couldn't have come up with a better way to do that I I'm on a foundation board and every three years to make us feel not very smart they take us out the Silicon Valley and on our last trip we said we don't want to meet the fund managers this time we want to meet the entrepreneurs what was fascinating six out of the eight entrepreneurs were not native born Americans so you know that is high-end high class immigration but those people could all be in Singapore they could all be in Israel they could all be in they could all be in Abu Dhabi and we will drive that whole class offshore you noted earlier on that you saw the Trump presidency as uh a shrewd adaptation of the Reagan Era playbook for the 21st century I if you could elaborate on that when you think about the ways in which he made selective departures the ways in which he did kind of reaffirm ideas in the Reagan Playbook talk to us about the parallels well you know let's go back to where we were in 1980 the Reagan came in with with high inflation and you know kind of the the great Ms and the the Soviet Union so Trump trump came in wasn't malays but growth was kind of punk the recovery post GFC had not been strong and they they both immediately went for tax cuts they both focused on the the biggest external threat that Reagan that spent the Soviet Union into Oblivion I think Trump you had had a different idea for how to deal with China and make up for you know some a lot of bad trade historical trade agreements uh and you kind of push push things forward and you know and I think that once Trump was in office and you know even make America great again it was was a reaganesque s you know it's it's an optimistic vision of of America instead of managed decline which I I would think that you Biden 2. 0 would be but I will say and some of the other panels were asked this I think who whoever wins has a mandate if Joe Biden wins he has a mandate for Central planning and things on the periphery and novel economic ideas or social policy dressed as economics and Donald Trump will have a mandate for deregulation closing the border and you energy Independence and projecting strength so both candidates will have a mandate so going back to tax policy for a moment Donald Trump is calling for making the tax cuts and jobs act permanent and he's also calling for a big across theboard increase in tariffs a policy that critics see is self-defeating is there a role for tariffs in a conservative economic policy agenda so let's go back to Alexander Hamilton Alexander Hamilton believed in tff for two reasons and when when he was setting up the treasury there was no real Revenue so tariffs up until World War I tariffs were the main source of Revenue but he believed in tariffs for Generate revenue and to protect nent us industry I I would add a third reason for tariffs H it is negotiating so I I think that given Donald Trump's credibility and what he has done in the past on tariffs that we may not have to get to tariffs but the threat of tariffs will you know change the the quality and the fairness of a lot of you know histor Al poor trade deals president Trump bassador lighthiser are very focused on the trade deficit and they talk about that it's a function of bad trade agreements and I think the tariffs are one way to remedy that but I I think you any anyone with an economics background will also tell you that the the trade deficit comes from our budget deficit and from the level of the currency so you know there there's this this interaction and the calculus between the three and I I don't think so I I believe that in in a conservative the agenda tariffs do have a place but I think that it it is part of a calculus of the of all the of all the tools in the toolkit so you were someone you know you might be among the world's leading experts on currency fluctuations and how to think about them um so if you go back to the Reagan Era you had the plaza Accords you've had a number of different moments yeah two the plaza Accord then the Lou Accord so was up then down well talk to us a bit about that and talk to us about whether or not you see uh some kind of large-scale currency intervention as an important tool for the next uh presidential Administration I I don't think there has to be a large-scale currency intervention what what I I think we have to have is to go back to like the ' 80s and even the '90s where there's a large scale the coordination between currency between fiscal between monetary uh and you with with the with with the Chinese with a lot of these mercantilist systems you the these excess reserves that are being accumulated U you know the level of the excess reserves just just just tells you that probably that there's the initial trade agreement's not right the level of the currency is is being suppressed that there's hidden subsidies so you know there there's something wrong there with these excess reserves and you know is is there something else that could be done could you say well you know you're accumulating these excess reserves you're moving out of treasuries maybe we don't think that's a good idea so essentially the strength of the dollar right now is a product of interventions that other states are undertaking including some adversaries are undertaking and we need to be more proactive well I I I think we are we are not thinking thinking about it the way we used to and I again I I think it's back into you this calculus and you know the the other thing too is when when you're running these massive deficits that generate the high inflationary level the biggest currency in the world is now a carry currency is there there's on forward points a a real pickup in yield over the Japanese Yen of three3 and a half% like that's not sustainable or optimal o o over the over the long term but I I think we have to keep coming back to China because you know like how do we think about the Chinese currency I I you our our research my firm shows we think the Chinese currency on on any academic model is is now undervalued they they've done a big internal devaluation they've cut labor they've written down real estate um very very similar to what happened to the Europeans 201122 12 but China's in three the currency is in three different equilibrium you're statistically cheap you have 99% of your citizens if they could take the money out they would and then you also have the 20% chance of foreign investors who probably believe if I'm holding an R&B is there 20% chance in 3 years I'm not getting my money back and how do you so the I think the R&B is really something that we have to investigate the relationship between that and the dollar there's this fellow Charles kindleberger who's one of the great currency thinkers of the 20th century I I think you know canes gets a lot of credit for Brett and woods I I think kindleberger was a big part of that and he called at the time it was between the US and stur in he called it the important pair so I think we've got to rethink the important pair for the for the US and the cnh and you know when when you go to reserve currency status so in in the history of the world there have been six Reserve currencies tell me what all the former Reserve currencies have in common Portugal Spain Holland France UK they were also security zones how did they lose Reserve currency status especially Spain they got highly leveraged and could no longer support their military so you know when when you tell me that when people in the Biden Administration said well of course we want to keep Reserve currency status but their 10-year budget projection calls for 21% cut in defense in in a world that seemed if if anything defense spending needs to rise then you know you you can't keep your reserve currency status if you lose the you know defense onra you're an admirer of the late Japanese prime minister Shinzo AB faced with a stagnant economy and persistent deflation his agenda for economic Revival consisted of three arrows aggressive monetary policy fiscal stimulus and structural reform if you were advising uh let's say Donald Trump where he elected president and he's in office in 2025 what would you suggest as the three arrows for a successful presidency well I you know I might even advise him to campaign on three arrows and it be 3% real economic growth and you how how do you get that through the deregulation more us energy production slaying inflation and you know forward guidance on confidence for people to make investments so that the private sector can take over from this bloated government spending two I I would urge him to make public his desire to get the deficit down to 3% by the end of his term you he didn't get us to these six or 7% deficits you know I think that they average four under him so get that down to three and then 3 million more oil barrels equivalent a day from us energy production so that would be my 333 and you know that that would the substantially decrease the O oil price which would bring inflation that's one of the number one drivers of inflation expectations and you know then you know back to the FED they could go into a proper easing cycle let's talk about deficit of debt uh you know we you started off um your your remarks U by just describing how that's been a big motivator for you in getting in The Fray and and getting into the public policy debate nationally um this year the federal deficit will land somewhere between six and 7% of GDP and the primary deficit will be close to 4% that is just staggeringly High relative to Europe relative to Canada as you mentioned earlier on it really is quite an outlier when you're looking at other Advanced Market democracies so you're talking about getting the deficit down to 3% overall not just getting the primary deficit down there talk to us about a path that you consider politically realistic and credible you know Donald Trump is someone who's very much a pragmatist he's someone who's not going to want to tank the economy but I don't think he's going to be close to the idea that some kind of fiscal consolidation might be appropriate so again when you're thinking about the path there what does that look like to some kind of fiscal consolidation that is not something that is going to cause an enormous amount of economic pain well that that goes back to my earlier point that I I think we are at the you know kind of the the the last chance bar and grill for growing our way out of this and it it's got to include you we re reinstate the the 2017 the tax cuts and job act with pay Force so you I I think we can tame this um um you know the the green New Deal we probably save a trillion over 10 years on that I think there's probably something to do on Medicaid in terms of um empowering States you know no Cuts I think on discretionary spending we probably need to do some kind of a freeze except for defense and you know I I think the market will respond to that and then you know I I have been very outspoken and I I noticed with a great pleasure in the past 48 Hours That Senator Kennedy from Louisiana and Senator Hagerty from Tennessee took secretary Yellen to task for shortening the US debt maturity which has also ease Financial conditions you know you know when people talk about politicizing the FED I actually think treasury has taken over the Fed as former fed share she knew how to do it but I I I think that there is a chance you could get into a good reflexive cycle on on debt cost because you know I I think it's been imprudent to finance at the front end like I I every Emerging Market blow up I've ever seen always starts the same way you end up with an asset bubble sound familiar that's driven by high deficits and and then the high deficits in an election year get financed at the short end I call that the three body problem and you you you you don't you're not supposed to see this in the US you see it in Turkey you see it in Argentina see it in Venezuela um so this year interest on the debt is going to be 1.

1 trillion more than the defense budget more than the defense budget is it it's I I have an article coming out the next few weeks I was writing it with Congressman Mike Gallagher but he has gone to the private sector he's privatized himself um and and you know I I'm a big fan of the congressman but you know in it I say that these high deficits are a National Defense problem like these high deficits are going to create a National Defense problem you know the Cicero said you know had some quote like unlimited Finance is the senu that drives War holds war is the the US ability to be able to leverage up during a conflict is we the treasury was able to expand the deficit Steve was Steven was talking about it earlier in terms of whether it's covid crisis or War but U US Treasury was able to save the C country during the Civil War by expanding the deficit we're able to they save the economic uh well-being of the country during the Great Depression by spending and then we're able to save the world during World War II so we have to get this down or we we have no room for maneuver having said all that so it it goes to 1. 5 trillion mechanically if there are no interest rates decreases this year but I think that President Trump with the right policy could create a reflexive self-reinforcing cycle on on the downside and you when when there is talk the these entitlements are massive I I think the next four years isn't the time to deal with them that we we've got to deal with the discretionary portion of the budget and get that under control but I think the signal I I I always say crawl walk run we got to crawl maybe walk our way to get the current deficits under control then the next step is for you know future Administration to have the confidence to deal with the entitlements you spoke earlier on about the historical role of tariffs in protecting nent American Industries and also this notion of tariffs being used uh for negotiating leverage there is of course another way that tariffs have been used in American history and that is as a source of Revenue uh and I wonder you know when the former president talks about the idea of across theboard tariffs uh particularly large tariffs uh on China and of course President Biden has announced his own uh tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles among other uh among other Goods uh do you see a role for tariffs as a revenue Source you see some folks saying that essentially this amounts to a kind of consumption tax on American households but if there's also a geopolitical benefit to it do you see that as a credible or reasonable strategy to help achieve fiscal consolidation yes so you let's say that there is a 10% tariff the having done currencies for a long time some portion of that will result in currency appreciation normally it's 2third of that so you know now you're collecting 10% the lift on the currency does six or 7% of it for you so and hurts exporters and hurts exporters U but you know you're you're also using it you know as a geopolitical tool uh I was at a recent Council on Foreign Relations meeting and Jared Bernstein uh was talking about you Biden policy and you know to him anything that they don't like is a market failure like every everything's a market failure but in the Q&A a woman from a European Think Tank said to him you know you said the word friend Shoring seven times you never tell us what it means to be a friend so I I think like in terms of tariffs I think in terms of currencies I think in terms of bilateral trade agreements I think in terms of security agreements I I think in terms of values I I think we should make it very clear that there is a green a yellow and a red bucket and we let everyone know where they are and here's what we ask of you if you want to be counted as here's what we ask of you and you you can choose which bucket you want to be in and here's what you get for being in the bucket I believe we have time for a few questions from the audience um hi vicus at MarketWatch um there's definitely a view that um in the first Trump presidency there the uh tax cuts and spending weren't good for our country's Financial Health so what makes you think that um uh you know the he's called himself the king of debt why do you think uh things will go better in a second presidency on that front well that view would be incorrect the it it was fantastic for the country is the uh work working wages went up the capital investment went up the tax collection level never went down so you know then then we hit Co and you know I I think that we we don't know uh thing things were going very very well so I I I'm not sure you know I I don't I I reject the view that it it didn't work for the country um and you know the the debt to the the debt to GD absolute debt to GDP I I think would have been going down from 22 onward so you know I I I think the the tax cuts and jobs act were were a home run you know across you know every segment and you know it was fueled by private sector expansion it wasn't fueled by this government spending and and wait board non-inflationary because the demand shock from the private sector was met with the deregulation as opposed to now the demand shock is being met with Supply constriction through regulation any other questions oh I'm sorry there's someone on this side of the room and then you'll be next thank you Charlie Charlie spearing from the daily mail um just in the background you've been to several of these fundraisers what is the mood on Wall Street about a possible Trump Victory and are they optimistic or pessimistic and could you also give me an idea of who they want to see as vice president uh I I have no particular expert I I'll I'll work backwards I have no particular expertise on the on the the vep but you know I I can tell you that you I I think they'd be happy with the list that leaked out yesterday I I think the the Wall Street group would be very very happy with that know I think the Wall Street group was always going to come back what I find more interesting is the new Venture Capital cohort who is supporting president Trump who as as they say in Las Vegas the new shooter this this is a completely new group and you know it it's being socialized now in Silicon Valley it's okay to be a republican it's okay to support Donald Trump I find I found you know Steve schwarzman comments on why he's coming out in favor of Donald Trump and you know a lot of it was anti-biden sentiment you know whe whether it's the pervasive anti-Semitism that a lot of these policies so uh you know they're two candidates now and um there's a clear choice I try to jump the line there I guess earlier um Scott you mentioned that you think um policies can get real GDP to about 3% uh potential GDP according to most people's estimates has been subed to was not much more than two in the previous administration um no one really thinks it's changed all that much maybe maybe a shade here or there where do you think the sort of big going from 1. 8 to three is a pretty big gap pretty big jump where where do you see the big differences coming from yeah look I I think we I I think the the global economy is actually picking up is I I think that we if if you look um so from between Trump and Biden if you look at the economic data for Biden a big jump is in structures which is the the the the the manufacturing uh mining which is the energy industry is practically nil so you know I I think you we we can do that I I think you you can get consumer excuse me I think you can get consumer sentiment back I I think it can be exports so you know I I think it could be very broad-based and I think it could be a lot of it driven you know I I I think that just just in the energy industry if they could get some kind of regulatory certainty that that would happen some of my clients are some of the biggest private families who are manufacturers in the US and I always ask them for Trump 1.