Will Hamas under Sinwar be different? | Inside Story

he's a wanted man and in hiding Yahya senoir is named the political leader of Hamas after the assassination of is with no end in sight to Israel's war on Gaza what does this mean for ceasefire talks and will Hamas under senoir be different this is Inside Story [Music] hello and welcome to the program I'm Muhammad jamj Hamas has a new political leader Yahya senoir described by some as a Hardline strategist spent more than two decades in Israeli prisons and now holds unprecedented power within the movement his appointment comes a week after the assassination of is

Hanah in tan senoir is poised to make crucial decisions on both military oper ations and diplomatic negotiations Israel accuses him of masterminding the October attacks which led to the war on Gaza so with senoir at the helm what are the prospects for a ceasefire and how will Hamas balance its political and Military Ambitions we'll delve deeper into this with our panel of guests but first this report from Axel zovich Yahya sinir the leader of Hamas in Gaza has been chosen as the movement's new political leader his prede cessor is was assassinated in the Iranian Capital

last week s was chosen unanimously and this shows that the movement is aware of the nature of all the difficulties that it's facing negotiations were managed by leadership and Sina was always present sinar's path to leadership is marked by Wars born in a refugee camp in hanun he spent 22 years in Israeli prisons before being released in a 2011 prisoner exchange a deal signed by Benjamin Netanyahu Israel accuses him of masterminding the October attacks on Southern Israel and the Prime Minister describes him as a dead man walking the international criminal court has sought arrest warrants

for senoir and other senior Hamas officials as well as for Netanyahu and the Israeli defense minister for alleged war crimes sinir will now represent Hamas in negotiations towards a ceasefire and the release of Israeli captives he is suspected to be hiding in gaza's extensive network of tunnels which analysts say could pose a challenge if he is to approve any potential deal sinir is also at the top of Israel's most wanted list captives families accused prime minister Netanyahu of derailing The Talks by assassinating K the situation U is is one in which we need to have

significant pressure on everybody uh whoever is the blame to accept these terms get the ceasefire done do the exchanges and move on to the next phase which is going to be even more complicated to govern Palestine and to possibly lead once the Israelis leave Gaza to lead to a a negotiation for a permanent resolution of the Palestine Israel conflict sinar's decision will likely shape gaza's future Beyond Israel's war as a man who has experienced displacement imprisonment and occupation throughout his life his perspective will be crucial in determining hamas's path forward Axel zovich Al jazer for

Inside Story all right let's go ahead and bring in our guests from New York we're joined by Omar Rahman a fellow at the Middle East Council on global Affairs he focuses on Middle East geopolitics and American foreign policy in the region in Belfast is Professor Beverly Milton Edwards co-author of Hamas the Quest for power and a former EU special adviser to the Middle East peace process and also in New York is Norman finlin a political scientist and activist who specializes in the Israeli Palestinian conflict a warm welcome to you all and thanks so much for

joining us today on Inside Story Omar let me start with you today the naming of Yahya senir as the leader of hamas's political Wing what is the message that sends well first and foremost I think it is a message of resist resilience uh and Defiance from the organization that you can kill one leader and there will be a seamless transition to another and I think the speed and efficiency in which that happened within a week of the killing of ishia is rather remarkable especially without a designated successor I think it's also you know a finger

in the eye of the Israelis you know on October 7th the Israelis vowed to kill both sinad and Destroy Hamas and here we are 10 months later despite the full brunt of the Israeli War Machine uh and both sinir and Hamas are alive and kicking and now he is leading the movement Beverly based on your extensive knowledge of Hamas was the announcement that Yahya senoir had become hamas's overall leader was that expected or did that come as a surprise no I it's it's no surprise really that Sina has taken on the mantle of the leadership

of the movement overall uh we need to remember that he's played a pivotal role um since he was elected as leader to Gaza in 2015 um and his sort of control of the tactics to help the movement achieve its objectives um has been really key to the events that have unfolded really since 2020 2021 so it's it's no surprise really and as Omar says really it's a sort of endorsement of hamas's determination to continue their fight on behalf of the Palestinian people against an Israeli occupier and their narrative has very much centered on you know

here is yet another leader from the people born of the people born in a refugee camp who's experiencing the same kinds of experiences of Israeli occupation and Israeli siege that everyone else in the West Bank Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem is Norman from your perspective what do you think all of this will mean for Gaza and for the people of Gaza going forward I think there are two things that need to be kept in mind number one Israel is no doubt euphoric about the choice of sinir because historically Israel has always dreaded most what are

called the moderates on the Palestinian side when it launched its attack on Lebanon in June 1982 the purpose of the attack was to defeat the moderate leadership of the PLO which at that point was on record supporting a two-state settlement in the hope that the moderate leadership would be displaced by a quote unquote radical leadership and then Israel can do as it always wants to do throw its hands up in Despair and to pretend there's nobody to negotiate with the same thing happened in 2012 when is Israel assassinate ammed Jabari who was actually Israel's interlocutor

up until that point but trying to negotiate a long-term ceasefire between Israel and Hamas there was talk at the time that not only would there be a shortterm but a long-term ceasefire and Jabari was the pointman and Israel proceeded to assassinate him so I do believe that Israel is probably elated by this choice because now we can say how can we possibly negotiate with the Mastermind of October 7 the other the other point I would bear in mind is that the choice of uh sinir as the leader is a signal that is the uh Hamas

doesn't believe that negotiations are possible with Israel and in fact I think that is a reasonable inference as sinir said in a previous interview I guess from 2021 or 2022 he said we tried everything we tried diplomacy we tried nonviolent civil resistance the great March of return nothing worked and so the uh ele the election uh of uh sinir is a signal that the Hamas side has of course they'll agree to a short-term ceasefire but longterm they no longer believe there's any possibility of coexistence with Israel Omar it looked to me like you were reacting

to some of what Norman was saying so I'll give you a chance to jump in but I also wanted to ask you to to follow up on a point that that he was making Norman had said that uh from his perspective Israel would have been elated now with the appointment of senoir as its political leader what do you think of that I agree I think Netanyahu is probably uh joyous over this appointment at the same time I mean there is a flip side to that and that is that Netanyahu is responsible for the assassination of

isia so if you are an outside Observer who was uh you know looking at Han and the negotiations that were happening in Qatar as good faith negotiations that may have led somewhere uh then you know Netanyahu is responsible for uh the outcome of that the killing of The Negotiator uh and the setback in those negotiations and if you're an Israeli whose family member is a hostage there then you might be upset over that kind of thing that uh yes sinad is the you know the boogeyman that has been portrayed to the Israeli public but at

the same time Netanyahu was uh you know responsible for his rise as the political leader within Hamas as opposed to you know the is hania type of figure uh Beverly um let me ask you how will Hamas go about balancing military strategy and political calculations going forward I mean what's to be expected well I think that the balance will will remain pretty much the same I mean with sinir in charge from Gaza we already know that there's a determination by the alasan brigades to continue its armed attacks its resistance directed at at Israel and Israeli

targets and now that's going to take place in the context of um huge amount of fears around Regional escalation as a result of that assassination of isma hir in tan and the attacks on the second in command of of his b uh in in Lebanon so so in in that in that respect it it will be pretty much business as as usual um and the sinoa will rely on the same set of uh trusted lieutenants and commanders from the ASD Alcan brigades who he knows well um and and has worked with intimately in terms of

the political calculations yes I think there's much to agree with on the points from Omar and Norman regarding the negotiations I would on the other hand point out a couple of things the first is is that we need to remember that despite everything that Israel has said since October the 7th about yahyaa he has been key to all of the negotiations that have taken place um and mediated by countries like Qatar and Egypt since October the 7th and that includes the decision back in late November to um have those original hostage releases in exchange for

some humanitarian relief and prisoner exchanges or release of Palestinian prisoners um from from the West Bank so that so that was down to his say so and his his voice and his opinion is intrinsic to any kind of decision making in terms of the politics of what happens next with respect to to the war and you know it's not like sinoa hasn't offered truce conditions to um to prime minister BB Netanyahu in the past he did this in 2021 it was revealed in 2022 that he had written a letter offering offering those terms um for

at least for a ceasefire if not for for peace with with Israel so both Norman and Omar are right to sort of point the finger back so to speak and in terms of the political calculations and political considerations to all the parties that are currently engaged in this conflict and those parties not only include the government of Israel but also include um the security and intelligence services in Israel who we now know are really pushing at Netanyahu to agree to a Ceasar deal so that there can be some movement so that there could maybe even

be a hint of a political Horizon but of course working against that as well is whether or not and the extent to which the Biden Administration in the US will apply any leverage whatsoever on BB Netanyahu to progress these talks Norman it looked to me as though you wanted to add to what Beverly was saying there if so please go ahead I entered the caveat in my remarks I said that of course U Mr sinir is going to work towards a ceas in Gaza and hopefully a long-term ceasefire in Gaza however what I had in

mind in my remarks was to say that there was at least the Hope held out that Beyond a ceasefire there would be a possibility for some longer term resolution if not a permanent resolution of the conflict uh Mr senoir is a perfectly intelligent person and he knows full well that Israel will never agree to a long not just BB Netanyahu but the entire Israeli State and Society they would never agree to a long-term ceasefire and peaceful coexistence with sinir as the head of state or head of Hamas and effectively Head of State in Gaza and

by um eleva in him to his new position I'm not saying he was wrong in his conclusions I think there's a perfectly compelling case that you cannot negotiate with Israel just like Israel's determined come hell or high water to go to war with Iran and inflict a colossal military defeat on it including the possible use of nuclear weapons I don't believe it's possible to engage uh with a achieve a peaceful uh coexistence with the state of Israel at least in its current Incarnation and so when they elevated sinir and sinir understood himself that when I

achieve this status it means there's no possibility of a peaceful coexistence long term with Israel because I meaning s I recognize they will never agree to that with me as the head of state I'm The Mastermind of October 7 and in fact they're euphoric at the prospect they have nobody to negotiate with and therefore they have to use what is the only weapon in their uh Arsenal the weapon of force the Israelis in the west are fond of saying the only language Arabs understand is the Arabs uh the language of force and in fact that's

a projection the only uh language the Israelis understand is uh the language of force I guess there's an adage in Israel if Force doesn't work use more Force that's their mentality unfortunately Omar you heard Beverly a few minutes ago talk about how crucial sinir was up until now in the negotiating process when it comes to the talks surrounding a potential ceasefire um I want to ask you how much was he involved in the negotiations up until now did he always have final say I mean it's difficult to know fully uh you know the the uh

the balance in that room in terms of decision-making but at the end of the day the hostages are being held in Gaza not in qat where the negotiations were taking place uh you know the the fighting is being done in Gaza uh and I mean we have to understand that you know the the most defining decision made uh by Hamas leader in a very long time was the decision to move forward uh with the October 7th attack that was a decision as far as we know that was made by the leadership within Gaza sinir being

one of them uh and not by Hanah and necessarily in so I think the decision making is is is happening there um and they have more leverage uh in in in what decision is ultimately made so Beverly Omar there was talking about um the divisions between you know Hamas leadership in Gaza Hamas leadership outside of Gaza let me ask you is there now more of a separation between Hamas leaders that are inside Gaza and those outside Gaza does that take leverage away from those leaders who are outside of Gaza no I think that the balance

of power if you want to call it that um is the same as it ever has been and this has been part of the challenge for Israel which has always whether it was against the the PLO or the other elements of the Palestinian national movement have always sought to use a strategy of divide and Rule and they they've always found this like almost simply impossible with Hamas and the Hamas leadership so Hamas you know Prides itself on having a very sort of strict lines of communication uh decision making is jointly made no one individual can

outvote or outow another individual when it comes to these kinds of crucial decisions about objectives Andor tactics um so I don't really see that there's going to be much of a of of a difference because the leadership outside fully understand and appreciate everything that people in Gaza that the 2.3 million people who are living and suffering in Gaza are are going through so they believe that it's important to remain steadfast it's important to remain to to maintain unity in in the ranks I don't really see that there's going to be any difference in that what

I would like to remind everybody is is that you know in one sense if there is a deal sinoa will be key in the monitoring and verification of that deal as he was back in November when Israeli and other nationalities were were released from the custody of Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups in in in Gaza so on the one hand whether Israel likes it or not they might prefer if a deal was achieved to have somebody like sinoa who has a track record for for keeping to his word and maintaining those moments of of

verification um of such deals as as as agreed than than somebody else who's who's much more of an unnown entity Beverly let me also just ask you if you're talking about the the the possibilities or the steps that might be taken to try to achieve a deal sinir we know is at the top of Israel's Hit List they they've said as much several times I mean how does it work in a negotiation in talks if how if he is now the lead negotiator because in the past depending no matter how much one person or another

uh you know had final say you still had somebody like hania as an inter interlocutor for mediators how does it work now well I think we need to understand that there's more than just there's more than just sinoa Le leading the neg the negotiations so whilst he's in in Gaza and sometimes Communications with Gaza have have been difficult or have been delayed um back in in Doha sinoa will rely on a set of very experienced leaders and interlocutors and that includes Khaled mashal Musa Abu Mau KH ala all of whom have again been playing a

very important role in coordinating positions discussing positions looking at Israeli proposals looking at what's on the on the table and trying to make decisions trying to draw up red lines trying to understand where and how they can make compromises um all of which in in an environment which of course is very volatile and subject to all sorts of very human um pressures so I mean in that respect again he's not you know he's not the only person um that that the Mossad um the Mossad leadership and uh CIA and the Kat uh mediators are are

talking to and then that we need to be very clear about we need to understand that these are groups of people who are engaged in very delicate processes of of negotiation with another belligerent actor on the side and both can be accused of spoiling actions both can be accused of failing to engage in confidence building measures or offering hope and then taking it away again you know at the last minute and that applies both to the families of of Israeli hostages and those of other nationalities who've been held in Gaza for the last 10 months

as it does to the millions of of Palestinians who are suffering in in Gaza and and and Counting the the dead whether they're women and children as as as well as the elderly Omar I saw you reacting just now to what Beverly was saying looked like you wanted to jump in again so please go ahead I no I think she outlined it perfectly but I was just going to say that you know Hamas is not an organization of oneman rule um and that you know being the political head of Hamas senoir is not necessarily you

know just a negotiator um he has I'm sure emissaries and has empowered a political another set of leaders that are already based in Qatar uh to to to do those type of things whether he's making uh you know decisions ultimate decisions or he's empowered people I mean that's the way the organization is structured so I wouldn't say you know every uh word is is going to be conveyed uh to to senoir and Gaza and it has to go through those logistical hurdles Norman um if we could just take a step back for a moment and

maybe you could I would like to just comment sure go ahead um I I don't like to sound like a Cassandra as has said several times the suffering of the people of Gaza is unspeakable it's horrendous and as many as people like Philipe lazarini the head of unra and many others have said they have exhausted the vocabulary of the English language in order to describe what has befell what has befallen Gaza and I don't want in any way to add to the despair that has already sunk in uh but I think there is a misapprehension

here there is no possibility of negotiations with Hamas and Hamas has recognized that with the assassination of hania and the elevation of sinir was a statement we have come to the conclusion there's no possib ility of negotiating with Israel let's be clear because the the factual record the documentary record disappears before our eyes in the in the blink of an eye Netanyahu has made clear that he's against any negotiations which might lead to a permanant ceasefire he said and the entire Israeli leadership agrees we will agree to a temporary ceasefire and once the hostages are

released then we continue until Hamas is annihilated and the annihilation of Hamas effectively means because you can separate as maong the Chinese communist leader used to say you can't separate the fish from the water the annihilation of H effectively means the annihilation of Gaza as the Israelis like to say to make Gaza uninhabitable and unlivable so that the population by hook or by crook will gradually empty out of Gaza the numbers now are between a 100,000 and 300,000 Gins have already found their way into Egypt and the Israeli expectation is if we make Gaza unlivable

which they effectively have in my opinion the estimates are it will take 10 to 15 years just to clear out the rubble from Gaza let alone begin the Reconstruction of Gaza that the population will empty out and so this talk of any kind of negotiations in my opinion is beside the point because Israel has made clear it won't negotiate Hamas has recognized you can't negotiate with Israel if they didn't realize that over the last seven months they realized it with the assassination of hania and they sent a signal with the elevation of sinir we know

that you will never negotiate with sinir we understand that but we also understand that it's possible to negotiate with you all right well we have run out of time so we're going to have to leave the conversation there thanks so much to all of our guests Beverly Milton Edwards Omar Rahman and Norman finlin and thank you too for watching you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website al.com and for further discussion go to our Facebook page that's facebook.com AJ insid story you can also join the conversation on X our handle is at

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