30 cognitive biases & psychological misjudgments - (Do YOU Know thyself?)

hello and welcome this is part 2 of the 30 cognitive biases and psychological misjudgments lesson just like in part 1 we'll be covering each of the biases and misjudgment tendencies somewhat briefly we will continue to try and keep a delicate balance of explaining the main points of each bias without overwhelming the viewer with too much information in the future we will probably have more in-depth information for each of the 30 tendencies in their own videos for now however we shall cover the main points and important aspects so let's get ready to improve our thinking skills

number 16 reciprocation tendency many people receive letters in the mail from various charities asking for a donation a common tactic with some of these mailings is to include a small gift such as free address labels with our name already printed on them or even a coin prominently displayed on the front of the letter these solicitations are relying on reciprocation tendency to try and get us to reciprocate with some type of donation we have a tendency to reciprocate that can work in both a positive and negative direction if someone does us a favor or gives us

a gift we have a tendency to reciprocate some benefit back to them if someone does us a grave injustice we also want to reciprocate some type of vengeance back upon them Wars often result when hostilities are reciprocated with even more hostilities and a terrible downward spiral begins on the other hand many friendships begin with a small favor that then gets reciprocated and the rhythm continues to unfold positively Charlie Munger goes so far as to suggest that the human feeling of guilt may result largely from reciprocation tendency when it is not reciprocated for one reason or

another this reciprocation can also manifest as a sort of reactance where we would rather do the opposite of what someone is attempting to force us to do we should recognize this tendency to reciprocate and be aware of its effects on ourselves and others if someone doesn't say wrong be aware of our tendency to want to punish them and instead consider how much back and forth reciprocated enmity could be avoided if we were to just choose not to reciprocate also keep in mind that people do not like to feel indebted to others and want the opportunity

to repay courtesies of others and if they are denied that opportunity to reciprocate they may develop some form of resentment number 17 liking and desire for social acceptance tendency Jack really liked his co-worker Rob after all they both liked wearing similar outfits and liked the same sports team Rob even disliked Edward whom Jack could not stand Plus Rob complimented Jack on his new tie that he had meticulously selected while shopping the other day we desired to be liked and we liked those who liked us we are more likely to like people who share similar interests

or values and we even tend to like those with whom we have a common enemy if someone likes something we hold in high esteem we have a greater chance of liking them as well this tendency can also apply to physical attractiveness where the halo effect causes us to like someone more or to be more influenced by how attractive we may find the other person in-group bias is also closely related to this tendency wherein we favor those we perceive as belonging to our own group and Dale Carnegie's book how to win friends and influence people he

suggests that in order to get people to like you be Hardy in your approbation and lavish in your praise although the book was written many decades ago it's advice still holds true today provided you are sincere beware of those who may not be sincere and who feed you compliments to try and gain leverage over your decisions by making use of this tendency against you are we agreeing with someone because we like their point of view or do we like their point of view because we like the person we need to be aware this tendency in

ourselves and others to crave social approval and our willingness to go to great lengths to avoid social punishment number 18 social proof tendency Jacob walked into the party with an attractive female friend after playfully chatting with her for a while he noticed several other women at the party starting to flirt with him social proof is essentially copying the actions of others this tendency often takes effect when we are uncertain how to act and we look to others around us for an indication of how to behave social proof tendency can also apply when there is the

tendency to not want to stand out in the crowd and risk being embarrassed such as thinking it is an emergency in a non-emergency situation there was actually a case where a woman was stabbed to death and 38 people witnessed some aspect of the attack however because all of the witnesses were aware that there were many other people noticing also there was a diffusion of responsibility and no one ended up calling the police everyone was looking to everyone else to see if it was really an emergency and they ended up copying each other's actions this is

an example of the bystander effect form of social proof where you presume someone else will do something in the emergency situation social proof tendency can even apply in meetings or classrooms where lots of people have questions but no one wants to look foolish in front of everyone else by asking a question that might appear dumb the darker side of large-scale social proof tendency can be situations where mob rage takes hold and crowds get angry or violent and engage in behaviors that individual members alone would probably shun we should keep in mind that crowds are often

driven by fear of being different obedience to Authority and imitation of others we need to be able to disregard what others are doing and think for ourselves as we essentially practice personal leadership we can be aware of this tendency when we notice advertisers giving free products to sports teams through sponsorships so viewers will copy their behavior and purchased the product for themselves number nineteen authority miss influence tendency in the famous Milgram obedience to Authority experiments subjects of the psychology experiment were shown to concede to an authority figure during the experiment and agree to give extreme

amounts of electric shock to a learner in the other room had these shocks been real the learner would most likely have died culture tends to be organized into various dominance hierarchies and as such influence of authority often plays a large role in how society functions we have a tendency to trust the doctor police officer or pilot for example and the fact that they wear a uniform as a symbol of their authority only tends to increase this influence Authority miss influence tendency can also come into play when looking to perceived authorities for information we trust John

read the article on the CNN site so he just knew it had to be true there can also be a tendency to believe an expert even if we don't understand what they're saying siding with their position simply because they seem to be an authority on the matter we are all also probably familiar with the tragic stories of war crimes where those who committed the acts often reply that they were only following orders while it can often be an easy heuristic to simply believe the perceived authority we should try to evaluate the truth of a statement

based on the underlying facts separate from the influence of the authority figure we should attempt to determine the genuine credibility of any authority figure knowing that anyone can call themselves an expert we should consider a short checklist of reliability credibility sensibility and potential bias when evaluating an authority number twenty sense-making tendency convinced he saw a pattern Karl developed an intricate stock trading system based on patterns he saw in stock prices when correlated with moon phases and crowd protests stories in the newspaper he was confused when his first trade was not profitable but after back testing

his system again he thinks he now has the answer since making tendency largely centers around a bias and our thinking that because we can so easily explain the past we are therefore highly skilled at predicting the future a specific past event may generate a very specific explanation of how it occurred but often we don't have every piece of necessary information an apt quote from Sherlock Holmes is it is easy to be wise after the event and Dostoevsky put it similarly when he said everything seems stupid when it fails since making is therefore our tendency to

make sense of things in order to put our mind at ease sometimes by constructing the explanation with whatever explanation we can come up with at the time when we fill in the gaps in vague statements in order to identify personal specifics to make sense of things or so we think it is an aspect known as the Barnum effect sense making is a fairly natural tendency that can lead to erroneous conclusions especially when our thinking is combined with some of the other biases when making sense of events we must realize that we may be prone to

confirmation bias or belief bias where if our sense making is supported by our existing beliefs we will rationalize anything that supports our conclusion when analyzing a situation we should be open to alternative explanations and look for what is generally the result in similar situations ask what is typical and what are the general principles involved it is helpful to realize that everyone wants to make sense of the past but unfortunately we must go through life in the opposite direction the direction where general principles may be more helpful than intricate unprovable theories of past events number 21

reason respecting tendency in a psychology experiment there was a line in front of a copy machine a person walked up to the front of the line and asked excuse me I have five pages may I use the Xerox machine because I have to make some copies it worked nearly every time we learned by asking the crucial question why or how we build onto our lattice work of understanding with the answers we receive we go through our education process learning to ask these questions and we become accustomed to receiving a reason or explanation and sometimes any

explanation can satisfy us we also become trained to link the word because with the process of receiving a typical explanation the shortcut of relying on the word because explains why nearly everyone in the psychology experiment was willing to let the person who wanted to make copies cut in line when they simply use the word because in their request no matter how absurd the reason given happened to be reasons are important and are of the highest value when they have been filtered by a mind that is aware of its inherent biases and tendencies we should keep

asking the question why or how as we travel the path of learning but we need to be aware of our tendency to seek a reason and immediately accept it especially when it is immediately preceded by the word because when dealing with reasonable people be sure to explain why and when dealing with other types appealing to their emotions may work best number 22 believe first doubt later tendency the salesman approached Janet and began telling her about the new product and how perfect it was for her for several reasons as the salesman continued his explanations she found

herself agreeing with him on how useful the new product could be perhaps because man's early ancestors lived in such high stakes fighter flight ridden environments we developed a tendency to arrive at a decision very quickly without wasting too much time considering it after all many a smooth-talking salesmen have learned to get their prospect agreeing with what they are saying in our current era this is demonstrated in our tendency to believe first and doubt later some philosophers such as Spinoza even stated that in order to understand something we first need to believe it and only then

decide whether we must unbeliev it when believing first is our tendency it can even confer certain benefits certain studies show that if students were told that they were above average on a subject they performed better in this case we see a beneficial placebo effect from believing the flipside to these positive benefits are that when we are distracted or pressured we may have a tendency to believe the information being presented to us which may result in a misfortune that would have been avoided with more careful consideration we should be aware that we often have a tendency

to believe first and doubt later and keep this fact in mind when dealing with important issues especially when there may be a perceived rush or various distracting factors involved number 23 flawed memory tendency an Australian psychologist appeared on a live TV show in a debate concerning the unreliability of eyewitness testimony at a later time he was picked up by the police put in a lineup and a victim identified him as the man who raped her the psychologist however had a rock-solid alibi the rape had occurred while he was on TV it later turned out that

the victim had been attacked by the rapist while she was watching TV the show she was watching happened to be the one that the psychologist had appeared on people's memories including those of eyewitness identifications have flaws and can be manipulated or distorted by various factors we often have selective memory remembering certain things and forgetting other's memories with strong feelings or even fearful and traumatic experiences may stick better in our mind however as we can see from the psychologists eyewitness identification what the memory gets associated with may be grossly inaccurate memories can even be implanted in

people's minds through the use of leading questions and suggestions one moment a memory may be clear in our minds only to be seemingly blocked from our minds later on when we try to retrieve the information we are certain we remember earlier age 2 plays its part as there often comes a natural cognitive decay making the learning of new skills more difficult in older age while continuous thinking and learning can help offset the decline it can often end up being an uphill battle these tendencies to have flaws in our memories should be taken into consideration when

we retrieve and rely on information stored in our memory we should also recognize that the memories of others may be flawed as well and we can weight their potential reliability accordingly finally it can also be very prudent to keep good records of important events number 24 dosomething syndrome the CEOs business was going well profits were steady and business was common predictable it was almost too steady for his tastes he felt he needed to be doing much more we need to acquire another business any business he thought often times we act merely because we can't sit

still this discontent often manifests as boredom impatience and a desire for excitement or stimulation this tendency may cause us to act even when the best course of action is actually in action patience is a virtue and if things are going well doing something else may end up being a blunder as warren buffett has said there's no use running if you're on the wrong road it can be important for us to realize that we shouldn't confuse activity with results we must ask if our inclination to act is based on insight or impatience number 25 say something

syndrome during the negotiations Jonathan became agitated at the seemingly awkward silence without even thinking he began talking and revealing more information his position was weakened but all he felt was relief at filling the void that he had sensed the wise stoic epictetus knowingly stated silence is safer than speech and cautioned keeps silence for the most part and speak only when you must and then briefly we would do well to speak only when we have something to say that is of value or will contribute to the conversation and if we do not know the answer there's

no shame in saying that we do not know we should keep in mind that we are more likely to regret our speech than we are to regret our silence we may want to reflect on the following acronym popular on social media before we speak it consists of the word think T is it true H is it helpful eye is it inspiring N is it necessary and K is it kind keep this in mind and think before you speak number 26 emotionally influenced misjudgment tendency Tom's daughter gushed with enthusiasm as she exclaimed the details of her

upcoming marriage to her recently met boyfriend Antonio she was high on the euphoria of her emotions that she knew just had to be true love Tom urged her to take things easy and make sure she had thought things through but whenever she thought about Antonio she just felt a rush of excitement and couldn't bring herself to think straight our thinking can become biased or influenced by emotions leading to a distortion in cognition and decision-making which may ultimately lead to negative outcomes that could have been avoided if we had relied more on rationality emotional misjudgment often

manifests itself in situations where we believe something that produces in us a positive emotion or pleasant feeling even when the evidence does not support such an upbeat conclusion emotions can also influence our thinking when there is a difficult or hard to accept truth that produces unpleasantness or mental suffering in these cases it can simply be easier to avoid those emotions and dealing with the problematic issue itself as well we can lessen the impact of emotional misjudgment by holding off on important decisions after an emotional experience a cooling-off period can do wonders to calm both anger

and euphoria and bring us back to a more prudent baseline for more objective reasoning cultivate a mindset of mindfulness of your mental states and any emotions that may be passing through and you should be able to minimize many potential blunders number 27 stress influence tendency murray had steadily spent more and more time with a new religious group she felt drawn to they had unconventional ideas but she felt like she belonged after all they spent so much time working on projects and selfless service to the group that she barely had time to think about any lingering

doubts she may have had to the outside the stress may have looked almost unbearable but she found this deeper purpose fulfilling in some ways of course her parents claims she was in a cult but she believed their leader who said any doubts were a sign that they needed to put more effort towards selfless service the Russian scientist Ivan Pavlov had some lesser-known experiments on dogs where they underwent extreme stress Pavlov discovered that increasing amounts of stress could break any previous conditioning or psychological programming that the dogs have had dogs that like their trainers disliked them

after undergoing the extreme stress and the only way to reprogram the dogs was for them to undergo even more stress this stress influenced tendency can explain how some cults are able to condition their members to break ties or their positive conditioning towards existing family relationships it also presents a difficult solution implying that further induced stress may be a method of reversal for this negative programming perhaps by combining other complementary tendencies we need to realize that stress can cause us to be more suggestible some stress can be helpful a kind of hormesis where a certain amount

can have a positive effect much stress comes from things that are actually out of our power to control we may benefit from the stoic wisdom of epictetus where he proclaims freedom and Happiness come from understanding and working with our limits begin at once a program of self-mastery stick with your purpose do not seek external approval do not worry about anything outside of your control the only things you command are your thoughts and actions we choose our response stop aspiring to be anyone other than your own best self for that does fall within your control number

28 pain chemical or disease miss influence tendency Kevin started drinking more and more after a lingering shoulder injury he felt that it numb the pain somewhat he didn't think that it was a problem but he did notice he felt angry or more often occasionally he would sniff some cocaine to up his mood but he started feeling more and more paranoid his girlfriend wanted him to see a psychiatrist but he thought she was probably just out to get him they were all plotting against him he muttered to himself pain chemical or substance use and disease including

mental illness can create powerful influences on our thinking and our judgment the effect is only magnified when they are combined amongst themselves or with other biases and misjudgments if something can influence our mental state or thinking capacity it is bound to be a source of error in our reasoning and judgment avoiding pain should be obvious but we should recognize that if we are in pain be it physical or even psychological it can sway our thinking in a negative or unproductive direction mind-altering substances should never be relied upon and if we find ourselves under their influence

we must factor in the potential unreliability of our perceptions sickness can also strike at any moment and if we find ourselves with an illness that too must be factored into the reliability of our judgments number 29 the curse of knowledge Matthew had spent the last year reading dozens of books watching countless webinars and listening to multiple podcasts all on the subject of the revolutionary nature of cryptocurrencies he truly understood why they should be the future of money so he was baffled when his acquaintances frank disagreed with him and said that digital money was pointless Matthew

knew he understood something revolutionary but he just couldn't seem to convey his hard-earned truths the curse of knowledge is a tendency to presume that when you understand something that it should be obvious to others as well unfortunately this is often not the case it can be difficult for us to remember our own state when we were permeated in ignorance before we truly understood something important it can also be difficult to convey our own enlightenment to others and that is if we don't fall for the bias of assuming that the facts we hold to be self-evident

are also clearly evident to those whom we are conversing we should keep in mind that just because we believe we know something does not mean that everyone else we encounter possesses the same facts even if it is our tendency to assume so we should be prepared to go slow while we explain our learning and this applies to biases as well just because you will know thirty cognitive biases and misjudgments does not mean others you encounter will even have a clue unless of course you decide to share this video number 30 multiple tendency Lollapalooza Jose didn't

really remember exactly how he first decided to work for the cartel he was recruited by Paul whom he really liked Paul after all had envious social connections and was very well-connected whenever he thought of Paul he instantly thought of his luxurious cars and beautiful women that he was socially connected to and whom Paul had even introduced Jose Paul also knew how to incentivize those who defer to his authority and he never failed to reciprocate a favor or a hurt for that matter perhaps he was in denial of how deep into a grim situation he had

actually gotten himself Jose briefly pondered what could he do about it now might as well do nothing he determined charlie munger recognized how cognitive biases and psychological misjudgments are powerful by themselves but are a tremendously powerful lollapalooza of foolishness when combined together with other tendencies Charlie is quoted as saying when you get two or three of these psychological principles operating together then you really get irrationality on a tremendous scale there is a powerful negative synergy that is created when these biases and tendencies are combined that may result in a situation where the effect is greater

than the potency of each tendency alone the whole may be greater than the sum of its parts how do we prepare ourselves against such a powerful force of misjudgment if we train ourselves to recognize our inherent biases and misjudgments individually we can better safeguard our awareness and preserve our optimal decision-making abilities be sure to consider reading the books and resources that were cited and recommended from the making of this video and consider watching this video again in order to better consolidate recognition of the signals that these tendencies and misjudgments exhibit in our minds as we

struggle for optimal discernment if you enjoyed this video please consider subscribing to this channel a lot of work goes into creating these explainer videos and we plan on creating even more videos in the future also consider sharing this video with someone you think may benefit from these teachings thanks for watching