Bitcoin Early Post-Halving Year Correction

hey everyone thanks for jumping back into the crypto today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be discussing the typical correction that Bitcoin gets early on in the post having year if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on intothe cryptoverse premium at intothe cryptoverse decom it does appear uh that we are potentially just in the correction that Bitcoin often gets in January of post having years in fact this time you could argue that the correction

actually started in December so we've talked about this a few times and as I've said before right there's no guarantee that it had to happen and frankly You could argue that what has happened so far would hardly even qualify as a correction from the high bitcoin's down about 12 to 133% often times that's just considered a Tuesday right but we have talked about this outcome a few times over the last two to three months one of the things I mentioned previously was that the first correction after you had this sort of impulsive move higher could

come around that January time frame in fact it looks like it potentially started a little bit sooner than that but the reason we discussed this idea in the first place was because if you go back and you look at what happened in 2017 you will see that Bitcoin also had a correction around this time where it actually went all the way down to its 21 we exponential moving average or EMA so about a 30 to 40% correction right around 35% in 2021 Bitcoin also had a correction in January and again that was about a 31

to 32% correction and it did not actually make it to the 21 we EMA in fact if you were to look at the extension from the 20 we moving average back in 2021 January you can see that it was still 60% above the 21 we EMA when it actually found sort of a higher low and then it bounced up even higher as the year went on but I would say that these sorts of Corrections um are expected I mean we actually even in 2023 we had several um of them we had this first one right

there 20 something per move down 22% move down right another 22% drop right these were all like 20% drops or so and then that correction right there basically a year ago at this time was also about a 20% drop then last year we said it could evolve into a little bit more than 20% considering that this might be a quote unquote midcycle top it ended up being about 34% so it was a deeper correction than what we had seen in these prior drops now one of the things that happened last year after Bitcoin had this

explosive rally was that it then basically went sideways for a while now it doesn't always feel sideways but at one point you know Bitcoin went all the way up here and then it came all the way back down here and the market didn't really get moving again until February and at that you could argue it was mid February before it really started to move again well I guess maybe early to mid-February this was February the week of February 5th and you can actually see that Bitcoin had that correction and then the correction bottomed out the

last week of January right it was actually the last week of January when the correction ultimately bottomed it bottomed on a wick that came pretty close to the bull market support band right the wick took it down to around 38.5k the bull market support and at the time the higher end of it was just just below that like $1,000 $1 to $2,000 below that so we got pretty close to to testing that level and so you could make the case that it's potentially repeating what happened over here um I also think it's important to look

at this stuff not just through the lens of year-to-date Roi but through the the lens of cycle Roi so if you look at the market cycle Roi you can actually see the purple line is the current cycle while this is around the time that Bitcoin started moving up again last cycle we have made a lot more of the comparisons to the 2016 cycle you can see how closely you know how closely um related they look they look really really similar in that case you can see that the 2016 cycle also had a correction around this

time so I mean it's important to just kind of like have some perspective on on that side of the market obviously there's no guarantees of anything in these markets obviously people would like to see a right translated Peak where the peak occurs in Q4 of the post having year um that's sort of the the the more optimistic scenario uh you could always have left translated Cycles where the peak occurs earlier in the year um but we'll have to take it you know essentially one step at a time if you a look at the year-to-date Roi

of Bitcoin one of the things you'll notice is that just simply looking at 2025 um and comparing it to say 2017 you'll notice that Bitcoin actually had a correction to start 2017 off right in fact in 2017 Bitcoin initially pumped up about 10% and then It ultimately dropped 70 you know to to about 23% below the yearly open and it did So within 10 days we're currently on Day N so again it does give you some perspective on the market and also you should note that day 10 uh you know will correspond to right just

as the unemployment rate is getting released right so um do consider that because again the the cyclical components of Bitcoin obviously are important and you know you can look at year-to dat Roi you can also look at it compared to 2021 if you want and and see how in 2021 Bitcoin initially got to move up and then it came right back down moved up again came back down again and then it kind of bottomed out at the end of January so this again no one has a crystal ball right no one knows what the future

holds but it is important to recognize that getting you know Bitcoin does tend to get these Corrections in January of post having years sometimes it occurs right when January starts other times it might occur a little later on in the month um last year we even had a correction in January uh that occurred a little bit later on in the month it kind of bottomed out at the end of the month um so you always have to consider that and there's always something to blame right this time we have uh the long end of the

yield curve to blame long end's going up and as I as I talked about yesterday we did a really long video on it yesterday if you just simply look look at the 10-year yield and and you kind of just compare it to what it did last year the breakout of the 10-year yield last year also caused Bitcoin to essentially get stuck in traffic on struggle Street for a little while because if you look right here when the 10year yield broke out and then back tested the 21 we EMA if you overlay Bitcoin USD onto that

chart what you'll see is that as the 10-year yield went up right there Bitcoin was not doing so well and it wasn't until the 10-year yield topped that Bitcoin really started to pick back up again now of course you could always get the 10-e yield topping for really bad reasons obviously you could make the argument that it topped over here because Yellen issued shorter duration than what the market was ultimately expecting back then and so it was bullish for both stocks um it was bullish for both stocks and bonds back then uh and it was

right I mean we saw we saw TLT go up quite a bit uh we also saw stocks go up quite a bit and and the reason is because as the 10year yield came down that was a Tailwind for risk Assets Now sometimes a 10year yield can go down and it's not a Tailwind for risk assets if it's going down for say the wrong reason right if the if the economy is really slowing down but if it's just coming back down because the market just got a little carried away that can be a Tailwind for Risa

when that happens you can see Bitcoin use that as an opportunity to make another move higher so arguably the drop by Bitcoin right now could be attributed to the breakout of the 10-year yield but at the same time we talked about this idea months ago and as always there will always be a narrative that we can assign to any outcome right to any outcome we can always assign a narrative to it so um I just need to sneeze but um too bad I don't edit my videos right um but I I do think that you

know we we could see it I mean continue on a little bit longer obviously especially if the 10e yield goes up from here uh if we get an idea of how long it went up last time after it tested 21 week em that might be somewhat insightful so if we look right here in July I guess my computer's struggling a little bit to uh to keep up and and to load but if you look here in July of 2023 one of the things you'll notice is that if we say sort of just take like a

a date range from there over the 10e yield rallied for about 3 to four months right about 15 weeks or so we're currently on week four so I mean it's it's always possible that the 10 year yield continues to Rally Beyond January um but if it plays out like 2017 then the 10e yield would probably top either you know probably in January or maybe a little bit later on in q1 if it if it falls 2017 it would just top in January I believe um you can go take a look right now and see uh

here right the 10ar yield sort of topped out right there at you know sort of in December and then it had another move up there in in March so mostly topped around that time right q1 of 2017 so I wouldn't be that surprised to see the 10 year yield uh top in q1 of 2025 and by extension the dxy top in q1 of 2025 but I I would think that is the narrative to be assigned to the sort of the lackluster price action by Bitcoin recently and the other thing you know to consider is that

you know obviously the more optimistic scenario is that Bitcoin just kind of did does what it did last year where it just sort of goes sideways maybe Wicks down a little bit as the bullmark S Bank comes up that's more optimistic scenario it is possible to get a a deeper drop where it back test that sort of that the breakout right you guys remember this midcycle top over here and then Bitcoin put in lower highs for about half a year we said that was likely going to happen right about 6 months of lower highs and

you know is always possible for Bitcoin to back test that right it doesn't have to be the most likely outcome that you have to consider but it is a possibility to to at least consider because there and it doesn't have to happen immediately but you have to remember that there are often times in post having years there can be a lot more volatility even in 2021 at one point we got a 56% correction in 2017 we got a um you know right here well I guess that was a little bit later on but right you

know when the when the top occurred in in 2017 right when the top occurred almost immediately there was like a 45% correction and if you go earlier in 2017 there were plenty of of 40% drops right so you know volatility can certainly pick up in post having years so don't don't shy away from it don't ignore it um I would just be openminded to to those outcomes and if they happen you know hopefully hopefully Bitcoin can bounce off of that level and and continue on but that's essentially what I wanted to talk about today we

are you know arguably in just sort of the the typical January of the post having year correction uh the glass half full approach would be to look at monthly candles and say what correction right I mean hell January is still green at this point which is why I think one of the key things to take away from this is that there is a possibility that the market just sort of decided to front run the typical correction and and already started to drop before January even occurred but I'll tell you what guys I mean I you

can make the comparisons of 2017 we can make the the comparisons of 2021 but if I'm being honest the thing it looks the most similar to continues to just be 2023 right where you know you also had a wick up in early January and then a move down we had a wick up it was a lower high but still technically we Wicked up and then now we're coming back down so again it it really does remind me a lot of what happened last year um around around the same time so anyways we'll take it one

day at a time uh obviously as a labor market data comes in over the next couple of days we'll try to compile that and make video and talk about the implications for Bitcoin we'll see where it comes in but again thank you guys for tuning in make sure you subscribe give the video a thumbs up but again check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at intothe cryptoverse tocom and I will see you guys next time bye