Former Head of MI6 surprised at how fast Syrian regime collapsed

how much of a surprise uh do you think this was to us particularly our intelligence Services well I think it was a surprise to everyone Trevor it probably came as a surprise to T Asam the group you're calling HTS which have been the main Rebel uh group involved in this uh uh march on Damascus I don't think they expected to go so far so fast I think we're all surprised that how the regime forces have just completely collapsed even those most loyal to the regime and closest to the regime so yes it is a surprise

it's not a failure of intelligence it's a surprise to everyone do you think that um what what did it tell us about we've just been discussing the uh the Russians and um also the the Turks uh do you detect the hand of turkey in this well turkey certainly has a close interest in this the uh um taham isn't the group that was closest to the uh uh the Turks in terms of cooperation and and training and Supply uh but turkey has a very close interest I think uh things have moved in a very favorable direction

for turkey and I think they will be the most interesting and influential country in the region now as uh uh as the various opposition groups come together to try to have a consensus about how a new regime comes into comes into play u it's encouraging I think that the the outgoing prime minister has stayed behind to have some form orderly transition of power uh the rebel forces themselves do not seem to be seeking V Vance on on on any groups although of course uh there will be uh some accounting for the terrible um brutal brutality

of the of the Assad regime and the torture and murder of so many opposition figures was bound to be some settling of scores at some point uh I want to come back to ask you about the Russians in a second but let's just stick with HTS for the moment Phil Collins was was saying here that of course we could uh you know we are always optimistic about these things but sometimes uh it turns out we've exchanged bad for Worse um what's your estimate I mean from what we know of HTS do you believe the sort

of transition from being an Al-Qaeda affiliate into being what some people are calling a genuine Liberation movement well I I I think Phil is right to be cautious about this uh but when I was chief of MI6 10 12 years ago uh we looked at all these Syrian I groups and uh and classified them into those that we could support and those who were beyond the pale and too close to Al-Qaeda and Tashan was definitely in the latter category um but I think Abu Muhammad Al julani the the leader has made great efforts over the

last 10 years to distance himself from those terrorist groups and certainly the actions we've seen of Tahir Asam over the last um uh last two weeks has been those of a Liberation movement not of a terrorist organization uh and so I think I think the the Home Secretary will be asking the uh MI5 and the joint terrorism assessment center for a review of the situation about t Isam and whether it should remain on the prescribed uh entity list it would be rather ridiculous actually if we're unable to engage with a new leadership in Syria because

of a prescription dating back 12 years so you would had you uh still been in office you would be advising Reach Out absolutely uh you know this there's a new reality in Syria now we've seen the the collapse of a of a brutal terrible organization uh regime that's been in power for over 50 years in Syria um uh I I was living in Syria back in the 1980s and saw the the uh the regime oppression uh with my own eyes in places like hamama uh and now there now the regime which which represented only a

15% minority sect within Syria has gone there will be a sense of celebration Euphoria but a real hard task lies ahead now to try to pull the country together and it doesn't have any tradition of democracy these are armed groups that come together so it's not as if they're political groups political units but um I think the Turks as I say will play a crucial role in trying to bring these various groupings together uh to form a single coherent uh new regime you you sound very optimistic I mean uh can I just say the words

Afghanistan Iraq uh and I guess Libya uh why would this be different I think the most apposite comparison is Libya and that's a bad comparison uh where uh the regime the country has been divided between different groups with different foreign powers supporting uh uh and and and and promoting the division of the country um actually you know it's very hard to uh people to understand how far Iraq has developed actually Baghdad is a remarkable place these days uh for visitors who go there it's is the the the one country of the three that has recovered

best from the collapse of the brutal regime before of course Afghanistan has gone back to the brutality because of the rather inept withdrawal of the uh of of US forces back in 2021 um uh so why is this better I think it's because uh first of all the uh the majority of syrians are Sunni uh and they've been repressed for a very long time I think there's a good opportunity for them to come together and have a new a new government a new constitution a new dispensation there yes there will be a very difficult time

ahead and there could well be elements of the old regime as we saw in in Iraq in the 2000s elements of the old regime that fight as a rear guard Insurgency in the alawite heartlands in the northwest of Syria I hope that doesn't happen and the Russians may have a role here um the Russians have a you asked me about the Russians they have a a major Naval base and intelligent collection base base at tatus on the Mediterranean coast of Syria they will want to hold on to those um uh those facilities that they have

there which means they have to come to terms with a new group uh new powers in Syria but of course they've been instrumental in keeping the repressive Assad regime in power so we're we're at a situation where the collapse of this brutal regime is really welcome as Angela Rena has said um but there is a lot of uncertainty and unpredictability ahead I don't deny that at all the whole um of this region of course is notorious for if you like external interference and involvement and there are the other two big players here aren't they and

I wonder what you think uh they are going to be thinking this morning one Iran and the other Israel I think Iran will be watching this with great nervousness great anxiety this this the events of the last week or so in Syria are exactly what the Iranian regime fear could happen in Iran at some point I think they are more sophisticated in Iran they've got some institutions of their regime but it is still a minority regime with limited consent from the Iranian people as we've seen numerous times over the last 30 years when there when

there have been opposition protests and unrest against the regime uh so the Iranians seem to be pulling back um they've been weakened by Israeli air strikes around their main uh uh uh nuclear facilities not on the facilities themselves but taking out the air defense uh uh units around them um so I think they're feeling vulnerable Iran I think it very unlikely they're going to play an assertive role and I'm quite encouraged by the fact that the Iranians do seem to be willing to re-engage with Europeans with Americans uh uh and to see if there is

a a future Arrangement between Iran and the West which meets our fundamental security uh requirements about their nuclear weapons program uh about their for militias in the region and so on for Israel yeah sorry I was going to ask you that yeah well for for Israel they're watching this carefully uh the uh after the 1973 War uh when Israel occupied the Goan Heights uh uh uh part of Syrian territory that's actually been quite quiet one of the one of the good things for uh Israel in the last 50 years is that they haven't had problems

on their border with Syria um uh they will be nervous about this they've had a sort of implicit understanding with the Russians that the Russians would help ensure that the Syrian regime would uh would prevent uh attacks across the geran Heights from Syria and in return the Israelis have done nothing to undermine the Syrian regime it's a sort of dirty Unwritten deal between Israel and Russia uh but the Israelis now will be watching with great uncertainty about what's happening and they'll probably be planning what Phil Collins was describing which is a worst case scenario are

this going badly wrong uh and uh Syria breaking up into into uh smaller uh units with armed groups who could well turn their fire on Israel at some point I think that's less likely at the moment but it's certainly not impossible and the Israelis will be watching this very carefully indeed I think the Israelis are going to have to come to terms with turkey on this because turkeyy is going to be the main power broker John SS thank you very much as always incredible clarity thank you TR