Why the Trumpiest Congress Ever Might Not Even Deliver Trump's Agenda | WSJ

- [Narrator] Donald Trump is beginning his second term in a familiar place: with a trifecta. Republicans will also control the House and the Senate. Just like when he took office in 2017.

- We all look back and recognize that the Republican party was not fully prepared for that moment. We are not going to make those mistakes again. - This is a very, very different Republican party and a very different trifecta than what we saw eight years ago.

- [Narrator] Here's why. These senators are sorted based on how often they vote with each other. This is the 115th Senate, the one that started with Trump's first term in 2017.

The farther to the left they are, the more they vote with Democrats. The farther to the right, the more with Republicans. For example, here are the senators that were the only no votes against a bipartisan spending bill to stop a government shutdown.

These Republicans tend to vote with Democrats the least. There's a similar narrative on the Democratic side. For example, here are the senators that voted against many of Trump's cabinet nominees, and here in the middle are the senators like Joe Manchin, the only Democrat in 2018, to vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh, and Lisa Murkowski, the only Republican not to.

If we move forward to the latest session we have data on the 118th Senate that just ended and compare that to the 115th, you'll see there are fewer members in the center, and importantly, these are the senators who won't be a part of the 119th Congress that Trump will work with in his second term. - The center of the Congress has really been hollowed out. You have people like John Tester who lost his race and aren't gonna be around anymore.

Mitt Romney decided not to run again. Same thing for now Independent Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin. - We gotta stop demonizing each other and we've got to argue over ideas.

That's fine, but not personalities. - And so the middle is going to be very, very narrow consisting of really Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski. But by and large, Republicans and Democrats have each retreated to their own camps, and the possibility for deal making therefore is far narrower.

- [Narrator] Those camps have changed too. Let's look at the Senate and the House at the beginning of Trump's first term. Here's how many Republican senators and representatives endorsed Trump in 2016, and here's how many vocally opposed him.

- We got a chance to set the agenda. What's the most important thing? Clearly, it was the Supreme Court.

- The Republican Party basically used Trump to drive through their agenda. Their Republican party wanted tax cuts and used Donald Trump to get those tax cuts. The tables have now turned.

- [Siobhan] Vote for the Trump-endorsed conservative. - Many, many of the lawmakers in Congress right now owe their seats to Trump's victory, and he is now going to drive the agenda. - Thank you, Mr President.

- [Narrator] That's clear to see, if we look at those in the new Congress that opposed him in 2024 and those that endorsed him. - We're overwhelmingly focused on advancing Donald Trump's agenda. - There's no daylight between their agenda and what they envision and what we envision for the House.

- [Siobhan] Speaker Mike Johnson comes into office with what is going to be the narrowest majority in decades. He starts out in theory with 220 to 215 seats, but that diminishes pretty rapidly. So in effect, Mike Johnson, if he's going to pass a bill on party lines, has to have every single Republican on board.

- If Republicans are not united, our agenda falls apart. - [Narrator] And to make matters more complicated. When Speaker Johnson does have the votes, everyone has to physically be there to vote.

- Something as small as a hospital stay could derail Speaker Mike Johnson's majority, and that is in addition to political problems. - [Narrator] And in the Senate with fewer moderates, Senate majority leader John Thune will have a harder time reaching a consensus. - We are excited to reclaim the majority and to get to work with our colleagues in the House to enact President Trump's agenda.

- John Thune only narrowly won his race to be the Republican leader. He is gonna have to watch his right flank if he wants to stay in power, and that is going to mean a whole lot more of accommodating of Donald Trump. - [Narrator] For Trump to get the funding for his immigration and deportation plans and his big plan tax cuts, he's going to need a unified Republican caucus and for everyone to be able to show up to vote.