Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about Bitcoin dubious speculation if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the Crypt premium at into the crypto. com I think a lot of people at this point uh are are frankly bored to tears with this Market uh primarily because the price hasn't really moved in a while and it I mean at this point it's not really that different from some of the other things that we've seen this cycle uh various consolidation phases you know sometimes we break up sometimes we break down um but I I do want to talk a little bit about what's going on in the market maybe look at a few different indicators and try to figure out you know is there any insight to be had the first thing that you know I sort of think about when I do these videos is where is the 20we SMA and the 21 we EMA and right now those are sitting at around 90k right around 90 K is where that level is um a lot of times Bitcoin sort of checks in with that level uh it did avoid it last January like we got a rally up before before tagging it but a lot of the times you'll see Bitcoin sort of fall into that level and interact with it in in some way um especially after sizable rallies one of the things I was looking at actually was the extension from the 20we ese so this chart right here is the natural log of the price over the 20we moving average and once again it has proven its worth um feels like every time we go up to the trend line you know I think a lot of people would prefer for it to be different but every time we tag that trend line it ends up marking at least a local top right you can see that the extension from the 20we moving average decreases or diminishes from one cycle to another which makes sense because it just takes exponentially more more money to actually move the market cap the higher the market cap goes but every time we hit that trend line it ends up marking you know sort of a local top uh for a little while and you can see that you know there's a lot of instances obviously with the exception of January 2024 there's a lot of instances where you know price can cool off for a while and and it allows the bull Mark sport band to sort of move back up uh to where Bitcoin currently is if you actually look in the short term um and then we remove the the bull Mark spr band and actually I may even need to go to I dare I say a 4H hour chart it sort of seems like we're just kind of moving between extremes sort of on Lower time frames where like you know we're just sort of chasing the narratives we have this like broadening wedge um and the lows are slightly lower right you have a series of lower lows we've also had a series of higher highs we're currently sort of sweeping this high right now but it it kind of feels like we're just the Market's waiting for something right it's waiting for for narrative to really run with and you know obviously the altcoin market has fared a lot worse during this time we've seen a lot of cryptocurrencies fall pretty low actually especially considering where Bitcoin currently is for instance you know not to pick on necessarily any specific altcoin although I might but if you just look at like the altcoin market by itself right total three you can see that it actually already fell out of the range it was previously in and know you could even argue that the altcoin market is sort of bouncing just back up to where it broke down from where Bitcoin is actually still up in that range and it never actually left it thus once again showing the importance of a metric like Bitcoin dominance because it does tend to hold up a lot better than a lot of the other cryptocurrencies you could even look at at ethereum and see that this drop that eth recently basically took it back to where it was in August of 2024 and in April of 2024 right I mean eth hasn't really gone anywhere because it's been at these prices for a long time but Bitcoin where it is right now compared to April and August of 2024 right in August it was at 50k and in April of last year it was like 58k so you you really can see the difference in sort of like how Bitcoin just holds up a lot better and I I do think there's a lot of people that they keep trying to front run alt season and whatnot uh because they think that alt coins will give them oversized gains compared to bitcoin and while it's true that at certain parts of the cycle that might actually play out it does go to show if anything that this cycle has tested the patience for everyone on that and why just sticking with Bitcoin hasn't really been a bad move um you know unless you're a day trader or sort of a shorter term swing Trader Bitcoin has outperformed a lot of different cryptocurrencies now we've talked about you know what's going to happen with Bitcoin here going forward um and I I suppose the two things to sort of consider the most are you know after we exit this range let's suppose we exited at some point right we're not saying when but at some point we exit this range will it be a move up will it be a move down and all I can do I mean from a from a timebase perspective right if you look at at 2017 you know Bitcoin was moving up in February and then it actually got a drop in March this time if anything Bitcoin was moving down in February though not it might technically be up on the month right now um no I guess it's not I guess it's still because it opened the month at 102 but so it is kind of deviating from 2017 in some ways I wonder if if one of the reasons that we're seeing it sort of not not be as as um sort of definitive is that you know in in a year like 2017 the corrections were were a lot deeper and as I've pointed out like this 2017 drop right here was about a 35% drop and it actually took Bitcoin to the 2016 High during that drop and that drop actually completely occurred in January this time we we haven't really seen the same thing right I mean we got a drop but it was only about an 18% drop if it was the same level of drop as 2017 you know a 35% drop it would once again take you to the 2024 High um so I think that might have something to do with why there's such a lack of resolution you could almost argue that if Bitcoin went down it could then go up a lot easier but because it's not doing that it's leaving a lot of Traders sort of wondering like you know does it need to get that move does it not and I also think too if you look at at other sectors in the market a lot of sectors actually did get that drop um Bitcoin if anything has held up a lot better than other parts of the uh you know of or at least other other asset classes for instance I know the S&P has already hit new all-time Highs but if you actually look at at what happened sort of after the uh November uh election results you can see that once upon a time the S&P actually gave back all of those gains now of course it did go on to put in new highs you see but it did go back and and go back to where it was pre-election the Russell also did something very similar at the Russell 2000 you had the the the election results right here and then the Russell went back down to where those levels were but Bitcoin did not right it did not and of course it it still could but I also think it kind of shows you why in bare markets for Bitcoin they tend to be a lot worse um you know than the S&P like bare markets for Bitcoin are like 70 to 80% drops whereas for like the S&P you know it could only be like 20% 30% sometimes 50 but those are somewhat uncommon and it could just be because throughout the cycle Bitcoin performs better and so that when the bare Market is truly there it just sells off a lot quicker than you know than than the stock market some of the cryptocurrencies have already tested some of those prior levels right salana had a pretty big drop recently uh with some of this uh this the the memec coin Fallout stuff and you can actually see that it sort of is testing the prior range where it was sort of holding resistance at and then eventually it broke through and then now it's sort of back down to that level now not all altcoins have done that or at least not all of them have done that just yet but if you look at total three right I mean it does it does really go to show sort of the relative weakness of alls even against Bitcoin still and look the FED came out recently and said in the in the fomc minutes that they're likely going to stop so so I think the average view right now is you're going to stop quantitative tightening um probably around midyear or so which seems reasonable I mean you know they they started qt in June of 2022 they slowed qt in June of 2024 so it stands to reason that they'll likely stop QT at some point around the middle of the year it seems like they they like to make those changes in the summer um so I wouldn't be that surprised if if that's what if that what if that is in fact what happens and I mean I know that a lot of people are sort of looking at it and thinking well you know because they're going to stop QT that means that all Bitcoin pairs will start outperforming now and while they could be right I I still would just sort of look at the chart and and just say look guys people have been calling for the durable outperformance of of of alt Bitcoin pairs for a long time they've been calling for alt season for a long time but the reality is that Bitcoin actually has continued to to outperform uh the altcoin market and you know I just I don't I don't really necessarily believe that um that's going to change just yet it could but when I look at a chart like this and I and I just see that historically all Bitcoin pairs go down to these levels it just makes me believe that Bitcoin will still outperform the altcoin market so if Bitcoin breaks out here and actually goes up into new cycle highs then it would actually keep the one-year Roi in check right if you guys are not familiar with what I'm talking about if you go over to the website um into the cryptoverse we have this oneyear rli chart and one of the things we've mentioned is that in order for this to hold around two Bitcoin would really need to start moving up by March the reason for that is if it doesn't move up in March we know last March Bitcoin went to 73k so the only way for this metrics to stay at two is for Bitcoin to double up its prior you know where it was a year ago in March within the next 3 weeks if it doesn't then this could start to Decay if you look at the one-year Roi it basically just leveled off here right where it has in some of these prior drops but in order for it to sustain this 2x move that it's basically sustained since November of 2023 2x from a year ago it would need to move up in March if it does not then it would start to Decay like 2019 right where it it starts to come back down now you might say well why are we looking at 2019 well I mean look guys I I I I I I think that there is reason to believe that we're in similar Market environment and and one of the one of the sort of levels of proof for that is to say look if you go look at the advanced decline index for the top 100 cryptocurrencies you'll notice that it's basically just been dropping since 2021 November 2021 you can also see it dropped in 2017 and it didn't start going up until after QT ended and you can notice that it just continued to drop it even dropped after QT ended for a few months and so because of this it still makes me wonder if we're just sort of in this sort of this Bitcoin only rally not not technically Bitcoin only obviously there's other things going but when I call it a Bitcoin only rally I'm basically just meaning Bitcoin dominance goes up so it's the point is like why spend so much of your time looking at other things to hold when you can just hold Bitcoin it's going to outform the majority of everything else sure at any point in the cycle certain altcoins might outperform Bitcoin but collectively they do tend to bad back to the king so I wonder if if bitcoin's one-ear Roi does start to decay in March if it if it's not able to go to a new cycle High then it would start to call into question those that that sort of that 2019 idea one of the things that I I go back to a lot with with Bitcoin dominance and and Bitcoin USD is to remember that when when Bitcoin dominance topped last cycle during the quantitative phase side the the quantitative tightening F phase of the bull market it topped before Bitcoin fell below its bull market support band right so Bitcoin dominant stopped before QT ended and then QT ended and then right after QT ended um Bitcoin USD fell below the bull Mark squ B so I would almost argue that one of the things that Bitcoin has going for it is that in order to try to to hold these levels it can pull in some of that liquidity from the altcoin market like if people are getting worn down by altcoins right if they're if they're looking at the chart and they they just keep watching their all Bitcoin pair go lower and it looks like once again that could be the case right where and I we've talked about this a lot if you guys remember I've I've been adamant about this chart for a long time and I said that it looks like we might just be sort of in this wedge here and I called that back when they were at 0. 53 and then they sure enough went to the bottom of the wedge I think think at some point this year they're probably going to break down here is is sort of my base case and maybe it'll do that this summer uh and then we'll see them you know sort of bounce back up uh later on this year you know something like this where they they sort of come down here and then and then maybe go up remember this big move by all Bitcoin pairs in 2017 didn't actually occur until November um so you have to remember that but what it what it essentially could mean though is that Bitcoin could just simply outperform the altcoin market uh regardless of which way it goes right I mean if in the way I think about it would be this like if if Bitcoin breaks up um to a new cycle High then I think Bitcoin would lead that move right so the altcoin markets fate in March is just dependent on bitcoin right if Bitcoin goes up they'll go up too but I I still wonder if um if you know how many people really haven't caught on to that yet right they're sort of knee deep in alss but but but not really recognizing that in order for their alts to do well Bitcoin has to do well but if you have to wait for Bitcoin to do well for the alts to do well why not just hold Bitcoin instead um and if Bitcoin breaks down I think it would probably correspond to maybe a surge in the in the long end of the yield curve and that is is something we've been tracking if you if you actually look at the 10-year yield uh one of the things that actually caused Bitcoin to sort of consolidate up here and then eventually break down was a surge of the 10-year yield and we know that a lot of times when the 10year has topped historically it can be sort of a sweep of a prior high so if the tenure does go to another high then that could cause Bitcoin to give back those postelection gains maybe check back in with a prior 2024 high and then see if it can get moving from there but I do think that there's other risks in the market as well I mean obviously you have the labor market stuff initial claims are still relatively low so it's not necessarily that concerning just yet at this point considering it's already this late in February and the next labor market report isn't for a couple of weeks I would guess that the next move won't become obvious until after the labor market release and we've talked about that for a long time seems like Bitcoin likes to make its moves sort of around that time the labor market release if it's a good labor market report you know um more often than not Bitcoin does well if it's a bad one more often than not Bitcoin does poorly that we have sort of entered phases at at different points in the cycle especially when when rate Cuts began where good data was actually bad data and the reason for that with with the labor market um and the reason for that was because with the FED cutting rates if if the labor market is starting to tighten up again it actually might insinuate that they need to raise rates again at some point whether they want to admit it or not um you know actually that's what happened in 1998 1999 the FED cut rates from 5 and a half to 4.

75 and then end up having to raise rates back over 6% to ultimately you know kill off the animal spirits and it's it's hard to kill off the animal spirits uh you know it's why we call sort of you know we're all djun here um that's essentially what happened in like 1998 1999 2000 is is and I can show you what I'm talking about instead of just saying it um but essentially what happened is if you look at at interest rates by the Federal Reserve like back then um the FED raised rates or yeah they sort of they rais rate but right here they they sort of they were at five and a half they dropped down to 4. 75 and they had to go all the way back up to over six to six and a half and then they finally sort of destroyed uh the animal spirit so I think in the short term you have to really wonder like what's the reason for another rate cut and the market certainly doesn't really think there's reason for one um it's not the most likely scenario at least for you know a few months not until this summer and I tend to agree with that I mean what's what's the point of cutting rates right now when you know you have you have inflation starting to to slowly go back up and I think I think when you look at a lot of this stuff sort of the macro side of things it kind of makes sense why why crypto is is stuck on you know stuck in traffic on struggle Street you do technically have a rising inflation rate ever since the FED cut rates and I mean at this point it's not that concerning um in the 1970s the market didn't really care about it until you had a big jump in the inflation rate right I mean you could see it was going up a little bit Market didn't really care and then in you know when we got the in April we got the March inflation numbers and they went from 38 to 48 so that is what you don't want to see happen and I I I do think that the market Market does sort of pay attention to that one of the things that I I think is really relevant and to remember is that risk assets tend to follow the money supply a lot closer than anything else and that all Bitcoin pairs tend to follow net liquidity more than anything else right so what I'm talking about is if you add on if we if we look at sort of an approximation of the uh the global money supply it's obviously going to be strongly a a function of the dollar right strongly a function of the dollar but you can see like if you overlay uh Bitcoin USD onto the chart what you'll notice is that you know generally speaking if if um Let me let me actually switch this to a log scale right generally speaking if if Bitcoin is or if the money supply is going up you know bitcoin's generally going up if it's going down Bitcoin can then fade right you see that so again over here right Bitcoin was going up the money supply was going up and when when the money supply was fading so too was Bitcoin and you can see though that back over here the money supplies started going up in June right started going up in June but Bitcoin didn't really follow for about three months right it didn't really follow so you could argue and I'm not the first person to point this out in fact you know other people brought this to my attention you could argue there's a lag right there's a lag on this um and and so that might be the reason why why Bitcoin hasn't really made a move yet is because there's a lag on it even though the money supply is going up um you know the money supply topped in September and and then Bitcoin didn't really hit a high until December obviously it did go slightly higher in January um but that might be the reason is because there there's sort of a lag on this right this was September to to December right so you have a three-month lag this bottom here was in January right and if you look over here at at um where where um where was it I think I just saw it a few minutes ago where where Bitcoin sort of uh yeah like right here like you can see the money supply started going up in June and then the Bitcoin didn't really start following for for a couple of months later so again I I I think there is reason to believe that you could have those lag scenarios in play there um and also you know the other thing to consider with the dollar is that and we've sort of talked about this as it relates to 2017 is that if you look at the dollar in 2017 and compare it to today it topped out around the same time at least so far but one thing to note there was a bounce by the dollar right and if there is a bounce this time that will be a a drag on the money supply because the money supply were sort of denominating in US dollars if the if those other currencies fall it'll be a drag on M2 so what happened in 2017 is the dollar had a drop and it had sort of a wick below the bullmark sport band but then it actually went back up into into March right into March and I've wondered you know I've wondered if that's what's going to happen here right where it sort of just goes below it maybe on a wick and then get sort of another rally back up my gu is it'll rally back up to around 108 to 109 at the very least now it's not exactly a fair comparison right this this is not technically sort of the same exact thing the reason I say that for the dollar is because if you look at sort of a parallel channel of the dollar and and you sort of connect the um you know connect some of these lows and and some of these highs one of the things you'll notice is that when the dollar did get that big drop in 2017 right here it was at the top of the channel um which is exact where we went in 2022 but we're not actually at the top of the channel right now we're actually the midpoint of the channel so if you're wondering like in 2017 like why was crypto doing so well in February when the dollar was dropping but this time it seems like it hasn't been it might just be because it's not doing it as you know from High um of a level at least with respect to the parallel Channel you know from an absolute perspective the Dollar's higher today than it was back over here but I wonder if if that's sort of the uh sort of the case to be made I also think that with the with the long under the Yo curve and you're actually if you look over what's happening in Japan right now um you know long ends going up over there and one of the things that has really sort of slowed crypto down I've pointed this out many times is whenever the bankage pan raises rates right when the bankage pan raises rates crypto normally sees a selloff about a couple of weeks later and so the market is probably a little spooked by sort of this rise in the 10e yield by Japan and if you're not familiar with what I'm talking about um everyone has a narrative every sing time it happens but look at look at the price of ethereum right it's easy to look at because all these capitulations have basically been to around the same price if you were to Overlay interest rates in Japan one of the things you'll notice is that every time the bank of Japan raises rates you get the unwind of the carry trade now typically it doesn't happen immediately right there's sort of a one to two we period where people are like Oh see it had no effect and then a couple of weeks later you see a big drop same thing happened right this this was the bank SP raise rates in March capitulation in April they the bank SP raise rates in July and then at First Market didn't care and then in August another capitulation and then this year they raised rates in January and then again the market didn't care at first and everyone's like see told you the market didn't care and then two weeks later the market sold off right and of course people blame tariffs but you know I really struggle with that and I because you know we we talked about this way ahead of time that this would likely happen and then people like oh no it's because of the tariffs okay right okay fine I'm not I'm not going to say it has no effect but I also think that people try to find a an excuse for anything the one the one thing I think to look at here you know with the markets you can learn a lot from looking at the different charts not just the Bitcoin chart but when ethereum has had these capitulations um it it tends to like bounce for a couple of weeks and then come back down right you see that how it how it's done that so I I wonder if we're going to see that so if this chart is to be used to give us any insight into what might happen with Bitcoin then it would imply that Bitcoin could actually see you know it could still struggle for a little while if this chart is to be repeated right where you get sort of a capitulation you get a bounce and then you get another draw where you know sort of the market goes lower once again and then you get this sort of this time based capitulation right you you saw that happen over here you saw that happen right there now as it relates to the bank of Japan um you know there's the they're talking about raising rates to 1% by January of 2026 so mean meaning there's going to be two rate hikes between now and January 20126 previously they talked about doing it in July with the 10-year yield surging in Japan there's some speculation that it could happen as early as March or April so I would say this I mean I would say if the bank of Japan raised rates again in March and April it actually might lead to another capitulation by ethereum at which point I think it would be sufficient L you know wiped out at least in terms of time based capitulation and then start to go back up again um but I do you know I I look at that and I'm like all right well we we saw this previously with with ethereum sort of a drop and then bounce and another drop if ethereum is to drop back down there it might just simply correspond to bitcoin going to its bull Mark sport band right so I'm I'm wondering if if that's the way this is going to play out where ethereum sort of gets that drop a little bit later on as Bitcoin Falls in to the bull market SP here's the thing about ethereum right and I've mentioned this many many times right you know it doesn't really matter where you want things to botom on bitcoin pairs right it's all about it's all about you know monetary policy and things that you just simply have no control over the reality is that monetary policy will likely not change until Bitcoin shows weakness until Bitcoin shows weakness you're probably better off with Bitcoin than majority of the altcoins I'm not going to say none of them but most of them will likely bleed to bitcoin until Bitcoin shows weakness right because the only way that Bitcoin would show weakness is if it tries to absorb liquidity from the altcoin market to continue its run and then it realizes oh there's not enough liquidity and then it actually drops that's what happened in in 2019 right the liquid the liquidity was gone and then it ended up dropping and going into sort of a shorter term bare market so if if Bitcoin were to drop down here to the bullmark sport band say like in in March or something I think it would correspond with ethereum sort of getting that that that double dip if you will where it goes back down um to you know to a sort of a lower price than it is right now and and then people get worried once again um but I I do think that in the short term the most relevant milestones for Bitcoin uh will be the the current sweep of the price that it just hit right so a lot of times when you when you sweep a prior a prior Local High um that always is an important level and then also this expanding wedge right this wedge right here where we're just sort of chasing extremes I I think that is also um relevant to sort of focus on in the short term as that will also likely that would also correspond by the way you know if you look at this lower high structure that would basically correspond to right around 100K right around 100K so if Bitcoin is able to break through this high and goes up to that level that would be right around that 100K Milestone this is that lower high structure that's been in place since January remember back in October November and even in March of 2024 I said that January 20th would likely Mark a local top for the reasons of trump becoming president was not not a you know not a bad thing for crypto but just you're pricing everything in right the market doesn't wait for that stuff to happen then price it in it prices in ahead of time and then there's a drisking process on the other side of all that good news right so you basically had genzel resigning Trump taking office all this regulation uh deregulation of crypto and everyone's like Well it can't get any better but the problem is if it can't get any better immediately than the market then D risks and then the Market's like well are you actually going to get a strategic Bitcoin Reserve right is it actually going to happen uh and if it is going to happen is it going to happen in a you know in a timely manner right I mean we've been talking about ETF since like 2016 and it took until 2024 to get one so it doesn't mean you're not going to get it it what if it takes longer to actually get it than people think I I think that is um you know one of the arguments uh to to at least think about um so I guess with you know with with Bitcoin right now I think that um the only way it's going to really show weakness I think is if is if the stock market dieses and the the one thing about the stock market I will say is that you know at the end of the day just buying low exp ratio index funds is going to be the best way to go and and and sort of dcing it you know at risk levels you're comfortable with um even lump summing is historically been better than DCA for the stock market right that's why they say time you know time in the market is better than timing the market the one thing I'll say with the stock market um again it's it's really difficult to predict uh when you're going to get drops in the stock market and I've had you know different levels of of success doing it sometimes it works out sometimes it doesn't um but if you look at 2025 and you look at the average of Prior post election years there tends to be some weakness in stocks sort of up until the end of March so if if stocks do show weakness you know say from now until the end of March then that would also probably sort of fall through into into Bitcoin as well um the other thing to remember is that we're actually getting options expiration on Friday and um that could be sort of a really important moment in the stock market as to what it does on the other side of that would probably be a leading indicator for what Bitcoin is going to do I think a lot of it just comes back you know and we've said this over the last few years is like no one really knows where the valuation of Bitcoin on the on its USD pair is going to go obviously it's easy to make bold proclamations as to what's going to happen and if you're right you cash in and if if you're wrong you move on but as an investor you can't know it's all about how do you manage your risk and Bitcoin has been had better risk adjusted returns than basically the rest of the asset class for a long time and I think it'll continue to have uh to outperform the rest of the asset class until the FED sufficiently changes monetary policy and they just haven't you know I don't think we've seen a sufficient pivot yet uh at this point to justify altcoins durably outperforming bitco coin just yet um the the only thing altcoins really have going forward in the short term is that the dollar has been dropping right the dollar has been dropping um and you know if you look at and we talked about how risk assets tend to track M2 well all Bitcoin pairs tend to track uh net liquidity right if you look at at Glo sort of an approximation of global net liquidity you can pretty clearly see that as net liquidity goes down right as net liquidity goes down all Bitcoin pairs go down so in order for all Bitcoin pairs to go up you need net liquidity to go up which is different than M2 right in order to get that you have to get this right but we haven't had that and that's the reason why a lot of people keep prematurely calling for alt season they keep thinking that you know we're just going to get a ton of QE and we just keep not getting it and they keep just calling for all season and they think they're right because all Bitcoin pairs get a short-term pump then they they screenshot it on Twitter and then right when they screenshot it all Bitcoin pairs D and put in a new low and it goes to show you how many influencers keep calling for all season for the last three and a half years and it you know it just hasn't happened I'm not saying it won't ever happen I'm just saying that you have to be careful you have to remember that altcoins are also dependent on monetary policy whether you want them to be or not and they have been bleeding to bitcoin ever since quantitative titanum began so um those are my general thoughts right now I mean those are my thoughts on the market I I'm guessing right I mean I'm guessing it's just going to continue to be more or less the same in the short term until we get more the macro data at this point normally Bitcoin makes these larger moves after the macro data comes in and considering that's only a couple of weeks away I wouldn't be that surprised to see something like that happen again right where it kind of just bounces around for a couple more weeks that doesn't mean it can't go to 100 right I mean it certainly could but I I would sort of expect something like that to happen uh and we'll see where it comes in next month there's also been a lot of layoffs at the federal level so maybe people are curious as to how that's going to affect the labor market in the short term though it hasn't right if you look at at initial claims they're still relatively low um right 219k I don't really think it's recessionary uh until it hits 300K and it just hasn't hit 300K in in a long time right I mean even these this rally over here by initial claims only went to 261 so I don't I don't really think initial claims are concerning until they hit 300K it's more of a sort of keep it in the back of your mind type thing um just in case see what what what actually is uh going on so I I think that'll wrap it up for for this um we'll see what happens here in the next few weeks and talk about the implications of those of those moves if if Bitcoin does check in with the uh with the bullmark sport band then I imagine it would it would hit altcoins a lot harder than than just what bitcoin's drop would in fact be to that level and if Bitcoin rallies up there would likely be a really big surge in Bitcoin Domin it's kind of going back to the whole saying right it doesn't really matter what Bitcoin does because Bitcoin Domin is probably going to go up regardless okay you're you're likely going to hear a lot of people call for alt season and whatnot and there's always a chance to right right we're in the post having year so I don't want to completely discount it but I also know in 2017 that phase of the market didn't even start until November so there's a good chance it won't you know it might not play out like it might play out the same way as the 2016 2017 cycle again considering especially considering that the cycle Roi has matched the 2016 2017 cycle the closest why not consider it as as a possible outcome if it's going to follow the 2017 cycle it would need to move up relatively soon otherwise it would clearly deviate from the 2017 cycle right I mean you can pretty clearly see that Bitcoin has tracked this cycle a lot um but recently it's sort of Fallen below the 2016 2017 cycle remember we said this was likely going to happen like it's likely going to fall below it and stay below it because of diminishing returns the only reason you can't put all your faith into a chart like this or one of the reasons if you had done the same thing with ethereum you know I mean look what happened right it was following at at one point and then it just fell off right so just because it happened in the past doesn't mean it's going to happen again uh but it has you know for Bitcoin anyways these have been a pretty good guide as to as to bitcoin's path this cycle when it gets a little bit too heated it means that it needs to cool off um and if it gets too low it it generally means it'll it'll get a rally but those are my thoughts on the market guys if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe give the video a thumbs up and again check out the sale on intothe Crypt premium at intothe crypto.