The Second China Moves on Taiwan, the Trap Will Spring Shut!

China wants Taiwan. Badly. For this aspiring  superpower, the nearly 14,000-square-mile piece of land in the Pacific is more than just an island. 

It’s a symbol of unfinished business, a piece of history Beijing refuses to let go. For China’s  President, Xi Jinping, the unification with Taiwan is the “essence” of the country’s “rejuvenation. ”  And this rejuvenation has a deadline – 2049, the centennial of the People’s Republic of China.

But  here’s the problem. Taiwan doesn’t share the same goal. Far from it.

For this country in East Asia,  officially known as the Republic of China, this matter is also about power and pride, as well as  cold, hard economics. So, Taiwan isn’t exactly a golden prize waiting to be claimed. It’s a loaded  bear trap ready to snap shut.

And for Beijing, trying to take it would be like walking into  quicksand. One misstep and the consequences could be catastrophic. So catastrophic that Taiwan could  be China’s ultimate undoing.

Here’s everything you need to know about the so-called “Taiwan Trap” –  a geopolitical powder keg that could reshape the entire world. Let’s start with what actually makes  Taiwan a trap for China. After all, we’re talking about a colossal power trying to take on a small  island.

But if it were as simple as it looks on paper, Taiwan would already be under Beijing’s  control. But the truth is – the deeper you dig, the more dangerous the Taiwan trap becomes. Let’s  peel back the layers.

First – the practicality of invading Taiwan. On the surface, China looks ready  to invade. The massive investments in advanced military technology – and a substantial defense  budget that keeps on increasing by over 7%, year after year – make the country look like a  Goliath compared to Taiwan.

But most of us know how the David vs. Goliath battle ended. In this  scenario, Taiwan’s sling is the Taiwan Strait.

Now, amphibious invasions are already some of  the toughest military operations to pull off. Throw a narrow, treacherous waterway  like the Taiwan Strait into the mix, and you’ve got a whole new level of challenge. At  its narrowest, the Taiwan Strait is about 81 miles wide.

This width might make it seem manageable,  but in reality, this stretch of water is one of the most unpredictable in the world. The strait is  notorious for extreme weather patterns, including two monsoon seasons that make any kind of  seaborne invasion incredibly risky. Strong winds, high waves, and tropical storms frequently churn  the waters, making the window of opportunity for an invasion as narrow and unreliable as the strait  itself.

In fact, China could only realistically attempt a landing during a few months out of the  year when conditions are slightly less volatile. But even then, there’s no guarantee the weather  will cooperate. And then there’s the logistical nightmare of transporting hundreds of thousands  of soldiers across the Taiwan Strait.

Now, China does possess the world’s largest naval fighting  force with over 230 warships. However, moving such a massive force would require thousands  of ships and it would take weeks. Many of these ships would be vulnerable to Taiwan’s missile  strikes, especially civilian vessels pressed into service to supplement China’s military ships. 

These vessels are slower and harder to unload, making them prime targets for Taiwan’s defense  systems. And with each crossing taking hours, Taiwan would have ample time to hit these ships  while they’re still in open water. Even if China somehow manages to get troops ashore, there’s  another problem.

The country would need to land around 400,000 soldiers in a very short period  to stand any chance in Taiwan. For comparison, the Normandy invasion in World War II involved  roughly 130,000 troops on D-Day. And that was across much more hospitable terrain.

China did  test this crossing through military exercises, but it did so on a much smaller scale. Plus, none  of these exercises can come close to simulating the scale and complexity of a full-on invasion.  The amphibious fleet of the People’s Liberation Army simply isn’t built to handle such a massive  operation.

If China’s invasion force failed to get enough troops ashore quickly, it would spell  disaster before the operation even got off the ground. However, crossing the Taiwan Strait isn’t  the only obstacle these troops face. There’s also the issue of actually landing these troops. 

After all, Taiwan wouldn’t exactly roll out a welcome mat. Taiwan’s west coast may seem like  the best bet for landing since this is where most of the island’s population and major cities are  located. However, there’s a catch.

The waters around Taiwan’s shores are incredibly shallow,  making it tough for larger ships to anchor close to the coast. This would force Chinese troops to  set up a landing far from the shore, giving Taiwan enough time to target those ships with missiles  and artillery. Naturally, such an attack would slow the invasion before it even started.

Think  of it like trying to drive a tank through an open minefield – everything is vulnerable, and there’s  nowhere to hide. If that wasn’t enough, Taiwan’s east coast is just as hostile. It might look  inviting from a distance, but it’s practically a natural fortress, with cliffs so steep they’re  impassable for large armies.

And the few narrow passes that lead inland? They’re bottlenecks that  Taiwan’s defenders can hold – or destroy – with ease. In short, Taiwan’s geography heavily  favors the defenders, making any Chinese landing a bloody, costly affair.

The same description can  be used for potential Chinese advances beyond the beaches. The island’s mountainous terrain – with  peaks reaching over 12,000 feet – is ideal for guerilla warfare. Taiwanese forces could easily  use these mountains as an advantage, disappearing into the terrain and launching hit-and-run  attacks.

This would make moving inland slow, exhausting, and filled with danger. The same goes  for moving north toward the capital, Taipei. With only a few major roadways and river crossings to  use, any Chinese advance in this direction would be an uphill battle.

Taipei practically sits in  a bowl ringed by mountains. Plus, the Taiwanese defenders would likely choose to destroy any  tunnels and highways leading straight into the city. For this reason, the Chinese troops might  opt to focus on western ports and beaches near the capital.

However, even getting there would be a  massive undertaking. But to truly conquer Taiwan, China must capture Taipei. With nearly one-third  of the island’s population and the Taiwanese government based in the “Greater Taipei” area,  this city is key to Taiwan’s sovereignty.

So, let’s imagine for a moment that Chinese forces  somehow made it into the city. Their challenge doesn’t end with getting to Taipei. Far from it. 

If Beijing’s troops were to enter the capital, they would be forced into one of the most brutal  forms of combat – urban warfare. As we mentioned, the “Greater Taipei” area houses nearly a third  of the entire population of Taiwan. That’s over seven million people.

This makes fighting house  to house, street to street, an overwhelming endeavor for the invaders. Moving through densely  packed cities filled with civilians and defenders would result in high casualties and tremendous  destruction. Chinese forces would face not only a highly trained and motivated Taiwanese military  but also civilians who have spent years preparing for this very scenario.

Yes, you’ve heard that  correctly. Taiwan has developed a network of civilian resistance units and invested in training  to ensure even the population can fight back. And the situation would only worsen for China  from there.

How so? Well, getting hundreds of thousands of soldiers onto the island is one  thing. But keeping them supplied with food, water, and ammunition is another.

Moving those supplies  across the Taiwan Strait while keeping vital ports open for reinforcements would stretch China’s  resources thin if not outright destroy them. Let’s do a quick recap. So far, we’ve got the  geography, the weather, and the natural terrain working against China.

Most of these hurdles  are out of Taiwan’s control – they’re just the island’s natural advantages. But Taiwan didn’t  settle for protection by Mother Nature alone. It has also taken proactive measures to build a  strong defensive strategy leveraging the natural geography of the island.

But this time, it’s not  cliffs and mountains doing the defending. It’s weapons. And lots of them.

This leads us to the  second layer of the Taiwan trap – the so-called “porcupine” defense strategy. The porcupine  defense strategy is a military concept proposed by American military expert William Murray for  deterring and potentially repelling a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The name of the strategy is  derived from the porcupine, a large rodent whose primary defense mechanism is its sharp quills  that make it quite a challenge for any predator.

No matter how big that predator is. Similarly, the  porcupine strategy aims to transform Taiwan into a target that’s too costly and too difficult to  successfully invade without suffering significant losses. In this defense strategy, Taiwan’s  “quills” are small, agile, and inexpensive weapons whose goal is to slow down or incapacitate a  much larger invading force.

Interestingly, these weren’t always Taiwan’s weapons of choice. You  see, Taiwan’s defense strategy was built around the idea of defending its territory with large,  expensive military assets, such as fighter jets, tanks, and ships. However, this was before China  went through one of the most impressive military buildups and modernizations in recent history. 

China’s growing military capabilities – including advanced aircraft, submarines, and a vast  missile arsenal – made it clear that Taiwan’s conventional forces were no longer enough to  guarantee a successful defense. That’s why, by early 2010, the United States, Taiwan’s  key ally, started pushing the island nation to shift its focus from traditional large-scale  weapons to smaller, more mobile systems. This transition was essential for Taiwan because it  needed to develop a strategy that could deal with China’s asymmetric military advantages,  such as its overwhelming number of troops and advanced technology.

Remember – China is the No.  1 military power in the world number-wise, with over two million active-duty personnel. As for  Taiwan, it has almost 10 times less – 215,000.

So, what are these weapons that shape the porcupine  strategy? As mentioned, they’re smaller and more portable than traditional weapon systems. However,  they are also highly effective against larger, more expensive military units.

Think anti-ship  and anti-aircraft missiles like the Harpoon and Stinger systems, along with mines and drones.  In 2015, Taiwan purchased 250 Stinger missiles and about 800 other types of missiles. By 2020, it  added hundreds more to its arsenal, together with drones and radar systems.

These weapons are ideal  because they can be mass-produced at a relatively low cost. For instance, Taiwan can purchase six  Harpoon systems for the price of one F-16 fighter jet, or 135 Stinger missiles for the cost of  a single F-16. This disparity in cost allows Taiwan to cover its territory with multiple layers  of defense or quills if you will.

Besides being more affordable, these weapons are also harder for  China to detect and neutralize precisely because of their smaller and more mobile nature. This  allows Taiwan to inflict significant damage on the would-be invaders without suffering heavy losses.  This wouldn’t be the case if Taiwan were to employ high-cost, heavy-duty systems like tanks, fighter  jets, and large warships.

A single Chinese missile attack could destroy most of these advanced  air and naval assets before they could even be effectively deployed. Essentially, the focus  on smaller, more nimble weapons allows Taiwan to disperse its defenses, making it difficult for  China to target and neutralize all of them at once. The U.

S. is so convinced that this strategy  is the way to go that it actually didn’t allow Taiwan to buy MH-60R Navy helicopters. Ever since  the 1980s, Taiwan has been successfully submitting requests to buy weapons from the U.

S. government  – some of the most advanced weapons the U. S.

had to offer. That’s why it was surprising when a  request to purchase 12 of the U. S.

Navy’s advanced submarine-hunting helicopters for reportedly  $1. 2 billion was rejected in 2022. However, the reason for this rejection was straightforward  – these massive helicopters that can fly at speeds of up to 200 miles per hour simply don’t fit the  porcupine strategy.

So, the U. S. believed that Taiwan’s defense budget could be better spent on  buying weapons like Javelin missiles.

After all, the island nation’s military budget isn’t as high  as you might think. In 2022, it was “only” $16. 9 billion.

This means that Taiwan would’ve spent  7% of its yearly defense budget on a weapon that ultimately wouldn’t serve it well. A good call on  the U. S.

’s part, no doubt. However, this is far from the only decision the U. S.

will have to make  in a potential China-Taiwan conflict. You see, the porcupine strategy isn’t designed to defeat  China’s military altogether. After all, Taiwan’s military budget simply isn’t large enough to match  China’s military might on a one-to-one basis.

No, the porcupine strategy is only meant to buy time  – to delay and frustrate the invasion long enough for Taiwan’s allies to intervene. Of course, by  “allies,” we primarily mean the U. S.

However, it’s important to note that a U. S. intervention  in case of an invasion isn’t guaranteed.

The ambiguity surrounding this intervention has led  Taiwan to prepare for a worst-case scenario, assuming that the U. S. might not come to its  defense in time.

Or at all. This is why Taiwan has invested heavily in its own defense systems,  aiming to withstand the initial onslaught while hoping for any foreign support to arrive. But in  the end, Taiwan can’t fend off an invasion alone.

The involvement of the U. S. or other regional  powers is considered essential for successfully repelling any invasion by China.

So much so that  this involvement is actually considered another layer of the Taiwan trap. This layer lies in  the implicit calculus of how U. S.

and allied intervention transforms a potential invasion  of Taiwan into a broader geopolitical conflict. Taiwan’s strategy of creating a prolonged and  multi-front challenge for China heavily relies on the deterrent effect of this layer. While the U.

S.  has maintained its doctrine of strategic ambiguity regarding a direct military response, history  demonstrates that even the slightest perceived aggression could provoke an uncontrollable  chain reaction. An attack on Taiwan might not only draw immediate U.

S. involvement but could  also lead to a domino effect of allied support, escalating into a conflict with consequences far  exceeding Beijing’s expectations. In this regard, the Taiwan trap can be loosely compared to  another famed military term – the Thucydides trap, named after an Athenian general and historian. 

As the historical record shows, Thucydidean rivalries – where a rising power threatens the  established order – often culminate in war, even when neither side initially desires it. Applied  to Taiwan, China risks triggering a confrontation with the U. S.

by overestimating its ability to  deter intervention. Any miscalculation – whether a deliberate invasion or an unintended naval  collision – could create a flashpoint reminiscent of Franz Ferdinand’s assassination that started  World War I. Small in isolation but catastrophic in context.

For China, this second trap raises  the stakes significantly. After all, the country’s rise depends on avoiding a prolonged war that  undermines the so-called “China Dram” of national rejuvenation. This makes Taiwan’s reliance on  the U.

S. and other regional powers like Japan and Australia more than a practical necessity. In  reality, this is a calculated element, part of the island nation’s broader defense strategy.

Taiwan  might not have the long-range precision weapons needed to strike China’s enormous fleet and  disrupt its supply lines and logistics. But the U. S.

does. And the U. S.

has already bolstered its  military presence in the region by securing access to bases in the Philippines. This access allows  the U. S.

to potentially deploy advanced systems like HIMARS to strike Chinese forces from outside  their defensive zones. These defensive measures are critical for two reasons. One, they extend  the scope of potential U.

S. intervention. And two, they reinforce the credibility of a collective  defense mechanism that dissuades unilateral action by Beijing.

However, China is acutely aware of the  challenges posed by this layer of the Taiwan trap. The country’s investments in anti-access/area  denial (A2/AD) capabilities prove this. By heavily investing in these capabilities, China aims to  transform the Taiwan Strait into an operational quagmire for external forces, thus deterring any  intervention.

Ballistic missile systems and naval blockades are designed to dissuade U. S. carriers  and ally fleets from even entering the theater.

However, the likelihood of U. S. and allied  forces targeting critical Chinese assets creates a dilemma for Beijing.

As many experts noted, any  attack on Taiwan risks escalating to a level that could derail China’s economic progress and global  ambitions, making it a self-defeating endeavor. That’s why an unprecedented global and economic  fallout is considered a part of the Taiwan trap for China. You see, China’s potential invasion  of Taiwan wouldn’t just be a military gamble.

It would come with huge costs, reshaping both  Beijing’s ambitions and the global economy. Let’s start with the numbers. Bloomberg Economics  estimates the economic cost of a Taiwan conflict to be at a staggering $10 trillion.

That’s 10%  of global GDP – a hit far greater than the 2008 financial crisis or even the economic fallout from  COVID-19. China’s GDP would take a 16. 7% plunge, with Taiwan suffering a catastrophic 40% collapse. 

For comparison, the U. S. would face a 6.

7% loss. These figures alone should deter anyone eyeing  military action. But how are these figures so high?

Well, for one, Taiwan produces 90% of  the world’s advanced semiconductors. Without these chips, industries worldwide – from cars to  smartphones – would grind to a halt. Bloomberg estimates the ripple effect from losing Taiwan’s  semiconductors alone could shave off $6 trillion in global value added.

But it’s not just about  the chips. The Taiwan Strait is also a critical shipping lane. Over 50% of the world’s container  traffic passes through these waters annually.

A conflict here could disrupt trade worth $2. 6  trillion, according to the world’s largest financial newspaper, Nikkei Asia. James Cleverly,  the U.

K. ’s former Home Secretary, put it bluntly: “No country could shield itself from the  repercussions of a war in Taiwan. ” That includes Europe, the U.

S. , and beyond. However, China would  be the one to suffer the most.

If China attacks Taiwan, expect a sanctions tsunami. Look at Russia  after invading Ukraine, but think bigger, broader, and deadlier for China’s economy. China’s  integration with the global economy makes it far more vulnerable than Russia.

The U. S. and its  allies would target Chinese banks, tech sectors, and trade.

And remember – China relies on  exports for nearly 20% of its GDP. Cut those off, and Beijing would face an outright economic  destabilization. This situation would only be made worse by other retaliatory measures, like import  bans, which would undoubtedly follow suit.

Now, you might wonder – isn’t the global business world  dependent on China? Well, to a certain degree, yes. However, businesses can’t afford to be  caught flat-footed.

That’s why the corporate world is already bracing for a potential  invasion. Companies are diversifying supply chains to reduce dependence on China. A conflict  would only accelerate this exodus.

Manufacturing giants would flee to safer shores, effectively  stripping China of foreign investment, technology, and jobs. Paul Triolo of the U. S.

-based global  business strategy firm Albright Stonebridge Group calls the potential fallout “astronomical. ”  And he’s right. The mass relocation of factories and talent would weaken China’s economy for  decades.

So, even if China wins militarily, it loses economically. It would take decades to  rebuild the country’s resources. Nations like Japan, Australia, and the U.

S. would likely turn  hostile for generations. Cutting off from trade and capital markets would shatter Beijing’s Belt  and Road dreams.

A failed war over Taiwan – or even a pyrrhic victory – would also destroy  Xi’s legacy project – the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. ” Not even the tightly  controlled Chinese propaganda machine could spin such a disaster. And this brings us to the final  layer of the Taiwan trap – China’s domestic and political risks.

Simply put, a costly or failed  invasion would shake the foundation of the Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy. Unification with  Taiwan isn’t just a strategic aim for this party. It’s framed as a sacred mission, ingrained  in Chinese law and promoted by leaders from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping.

A misstep in this  mission would create a narrative of failure, which would potentially undermine decades of CCP  propaganda. Just imagine the scenario – a pre-war propaganda blitz urging sacrifice for the ultimate  goal of reunification. Then, defeat.

The CCP would scramble to craft a face-saving narrative, likely  proclaiming some abstract “strategic victory. ” Of course, this narrative would probably be  unsuccessful, resulting in the public discontent boiling over. And just like that – the fuse for  internal unrest is lit.

Separatist movements in Tiber and Xinjiang, long suppressed, might seize  the opportunity to act. Ethnic regions like Inner Mongolia and the Korean-populated areas in the  northeast could also rise. External adversaries like India and Vietnam might press territorial  claims, exploiting China’s internal weakness.

Blow after blow after blow. Even within the CCP,  blame-shifting and infighting could spiral. As leadership stability teeters, Xi’s grip on power –  fortified by his unprecedented third presidential term – might falter.

However, the domestic  costs of a Taiwan war wouldn’t stop at political and economic fallout. They would also devastate  China’s worsening demographics. China’s population is already declining, with just 9.

02 million  births in 2023 – the lowest since 1762. A war could exacerbate this trend, as seen in Russia and  Ukraine. Sanctions and economic instability could push fertility rates even lower.

So much so that a  post-war China might stabilize at a fertility rate of 0. 7, plummeting its population to 1. 1 billion  by 2050.

But that’s not even the worst part. By 2100, China – once the most populous country in  the world – could have only 525 million people, a collapse of more than 60% of its current  population. Let that sink in.

But China isn’t the only one at risk. The consequences of a Taiwan war  would cascade globally. Historically, war-induced economic distress has always reduced births. 

That’s what happened with the Russo-Ukrainian war. In 2023, for example, births in Poland  and Germany dropped 11% and 7%, respectively, after the economic shock of the war. A Taiwan  war – involving the world’s second-largest economy – would have far graver implications.

This  all means that even a perceived victory in Taiwan would likely mirror the aftermath of Hong Kong’s  suppression – economic decline, mass emigration, and irreversible demographic damage. Now,  the CCP might be able to suppress dissent, but it can’t suppress these economic  and demographic realities. For China, invading Taiwan would be leaping into an  economic and demographic abyss.

Will Xi take this leap despite all these risks? That is  the question we now ask you. Will Xi’s desire to cement his legacy push him toward a reckless  decision, or will the far-reaching implications of the Taiwan trap be enough to deter him?

Share  your thoughts in the comments section below. Now go check out Taiwan Has a Secret REVENGE Plan  for China or click this other video instead!