Nuclear Test, Zelensky Demands NATO Entry, Biden Furious Putin; Shock Collapse Aleppo

good day today is Saturday 30th November 2024 and before I deal return to the perennial topic of these programs I want to say something about the situation in the Middle East and specifically in Syria now about 3 days ago the U in um islamist forces who have been um holding out in a small pocket in North West W Syria in idlib launched an offensive towards the city of alfo um to the surprise of many people including myself the resistance from the Syrian Army um was barely uh evident and this has enabled these forces these islamist

forces to advance all the way to the key city of Aleppo itself the second biggest city in Syria and Syria's biggest industrial center and this morning we have reports that they are in occupation of 34s of Aleppo and there still seems to be little sign of much organized resistance to to their advance in this at the same time all sorts of towns and Villages which had previously been captured by the Syrian Army have also Fallen under the control control of these islamist Fighters now yesterday uh Professor Glen dies and myself had um a discussion with

aliser crook the former British Diplomat who is far better informed about the situation in the Middle East than I am he said that the force that has been assembled the islamist force which has been assembled and which is conducting this attack numbers around 15,000 men that's been built up and trained over um a prolonged period and it is heavily equipped with Western supplied weapons uh M many of them supplied ultimately from turkey and they've also developed a certain skill in operating fpv drones suggesting that they've obtained some assistance from Ukraine the last Point by the

way I've not got from Alis crook I've obtained it from um the Russian media but it does seem as if this is the case and um as I said for the moment Syrian military resistance has been remarkably weak it has been in fact all but non-existent and this morning shortly before I started making this program the Syrian military authorities acknowledged that these islamist Fighters have indeed entered Aleppo itself Aleppo airport has been closed it still seems to be under Syrian government control and there are reports that Syrian military units stationed in Aleppo have been withdrawn

from various places in the city and there are also reports the Syrian authorities are saying that despite the fact that these Fighters have entered alfo they have not yet been able to consolidate their positions there now the Russian media for their part are saying that reinforcements from the Syrian military are being rushed to the area though they're not expected to to arrive in significant number for another three days now however one looks at this this is clearly a debacle The unanswered question is whether this is an operation that was launched Sly and which took the

Syrian Army by surprise or whether for any number of possible reasons the Syrian Army has essentially melted away from the powerful force which it used to be and which basically won the Syrian Civil War or at least the previous iteration of the Syrian Civil War whether it has somehow become demoralized and weakened by the effect of the pandemic the sanctions the Israeli bombing of uh various locations of Hezbollah and the other forces in Syria whether it's been weakened to the point where it is just in the face of an attack by these islamist Fighters that

has just collapsed and in that case if we're talking about the second then this is an exceptionally grave crisis and we would be looking at a situation rather similar to what happened in mosul in Iraq in 2015 when isil launched an attack on um Iraqi military positions um west of the city of mosul the Iraqi Army collapsed and that enabled isil to capture mosul itself leading to an extraordinary crisis and the creation of the so-called Islamic State and of its khalifate which it took several years for the combined forces of the United States and Russia

and Iran and also the Kurdish militias the various Kurdish militias and the Syrian and Iraqi armies eventually to defeat now I'm going to guess and I at the moment can only guess that it is the first that the syrians were caught by surprise this is despite the fact that there were rumors reports that the Syrian military was conducting some kind of offensive in idlib Province but I suspect that if such an offensive was taking place it was on a relatively limited scale back in I think 2019 or 2020 um un through Russian mediation some kind

of ceasefire was agreed between the Syrian military and the Jihadi Fighters the islamist fighters in idlib Province and this is broadly held until the last few months when as I said there's been some reports of some kind of Syrian military offensive in live though as I said it doesn't appear to have been on any very significant scale and um even though I would say that the fighters themselves have been using the fact or the claim about this Syrian offensive as their own justification for the much more powerful offensive that they have just launched by the

way I don't take that seriously clearly this what we've just seen is is a major offensive that has been conducted in order to um capture Aleppo itself it clearly was not as I said simply a response to some kind of much more limited Syrian Army offensive but anyway coming back to my main point there has been some kind of a ceasefire in operation given the difficult conditions economic conditions in Syria caused by the sanctions pressure it's likely that the Syrian Army has to some extent withdrawn from this area um military operations obviously are expensive and

difficult to sustain and it would not surprise me if president Assad's government in Damascus took a decision to stand down their forces to some degree and That Was Then That gave opened up the possibility for this attack which has just happened now I say that this has come as a surprise I wonder whether it has come as a total surprise in the sense that a number of interesting things have been taking place over the last week or so which do suggest to me that there were concerns about what was going on on on the part

of various parties and that this explains some um moves which I did find somewhat surprising the first is that there has been a telephone call between Russian President Putin and Turkish president um erdogan uh which took place a number of days ago in fact I discussed this telephone call I see to remember in a recent program it appeared to be mostly about bilateral matters though they did talk about Regional conflicts as well and it looks as if they were talking about the situation in Syria also now aliser Crook in that program that we did with

him Glen dies and I said that the major party that has played the decisive role in equipping rearming training the G hardi fighters in order to launch this latest offensive is Turkey in other words president eran's government and this would not surprise me at all by the way um president erdogan has um strong feelings about the Syrian conflict um he has um attempted to conduct some sort of offensives himself in in this area there was one particular occasion I remember I think it happened in 2019 when Jihadi Fighters backed by the Turkish Army also conducted

some kind of offensive against the Syrian military um in this very same area after some initial successes they were repelled by the syrians backed by the Russian Air Force he had to go to Moscow he was eventually received in the Kremlin he was kept waiting as I remember for a while in a waiting room and it was a waiting room in the Kremlin where there were pictures carefully arranged showing um former battles between the Russian and ottoman armies in which of course it was the Russians ultimately who were successful and it was clear that the

Russians were rubbing a point in to erdan at that time that Russia is militarily a far more powerful country than turkey and um it would not surprise me if erdoan felt deeply humiliated as a result of that episode and that he would have been looking thereafter for Revenge bench it is completely in character if you have followed the man closely and of course he's aware that the Russians have their hands full as he will no doubt think in Ukraine that they're fighting heavily against the ukrainians we will come to all of that shortly that this

is a good opportunity therefore to reassert to reverse the situation at least in Northwest Libya Syria to make uh turkey again and himself obviously major players in the conflict and that of course plays some role in explaining the events that we have just seen so this conversation between Putin and erdogan might have been connected to this affair I would say this if I am wrong about this if this conversation took place just a few days ago just before this offensive began and Eran concealed from Putin over the course of that conversation the fact that some

kind of major offensive was being prepared in Syria by this turkish-backed islamist force and about Turkish backing by the way there is no doubt then of course he has lied he would have lied to or at least deceived Putin by amission Putin will be absolutely furious with this if erdogan humiliated Putin five years ago Putin would have felt well maybe not humiliated but extremely angry and betrayed by this holding back of information on eran's part and that will almost certainly affect the scale of the Russian reaction I don't of course know exactly what took place

over the course of this call but anyway there we go that's that's the Turkish side now it is important to say that though aliser crook has talked about the role the turkeyy is playing and there's been a certain amount about this in the media in the west and there is no doubt at all that the Turks have played a role and as Alis cook pointed out it certainly does put eran's various recent statements and speeches appearing to criticize Israel in a certain context he has been very noisy criticizing the Israelis he's been speaking to huge

crowds he's been ending diplomatic contacts with Israel even at the same time as oil and supply from aeran that cross turkey continue to reach Israel and he has done nothing significant to um affect or impede what Israel has been doing anyway even as erdogan has been talking loudly about Israel he has taken a step against ultimately the Syrian government and by extension Syria's allies Iran and Hezbollah which objectively assists Israel because of course the major transit route for supplies by Iran to Hezbollah passes from Iran through Iraq Syria and ultimately into Lebanon and that way

to Hezbollah and what has eruan done even as he fiercely and loudly and noisily criticizes the Israeli government he is taken a step which puts Iran Syria and Hezbollah in a more difficult position a much more difficult position as they face off against Israel and I to say that if you go to statements made by the Iranians the syrians and Hezbollah if you go to the Middle Eastern media at least that part of the Middle Eastern media which is aligned with the so-called axis of resistance they are making it clear that it is Israel which

they see or at least which they claim is the party that has really uh brought about this crisis in Aleppo that this was something that was organized by the Israelis alongside the Americans and they're not saying so much about the Turks the Russian media by the way is the same it's interesting that for the moment they are downplaying the significance of Turkish involvement in this affair now I think this is true I think that the Israelis almost certainly have played a role and the Americans also they've never given up in their desire to achieve some

sort of regime change operation in Syria just saying and undoubtedly this event does play into um to Israel's very significant ific Advantage but I would suggest that another Telltale sign that the offensive did not come as a total surprise over the last few days at least is the rather surprising decision by Hezbollah to agree to the ceasefire that has just been agreed between Israel and well in theory Lebanon but actually Hezbollah now aliser crook again in that very same program discussed at very considerable length why Israel agreed to a ceasefire at this particular time briefly

the Israeli Army is exhausted the Golan Brigade which has been leading the battle in South Lebanon has suffered significant losses perhaps no not so much in men killed but in men injured and wounded the Israeli Army was unable to capture any of the key Villages that it sought to capture in southern Lebanon um there's been unrest it seems on the part of many reservists within Israel and according to aliser Crook and he is somebody who is far more U familiar with the events he's able to follow the Hebrew media in Israel which for example I

cannot do anyway according to aliser crook there's also been growing tensions within the Israeli government the within the Coalition with growing criticism of the religious parties for the fact that they do not agree that young men and women affiliated with those parties should serve in the Israeli Army so that secular boys and girls young people in Israel are fighting a war which to some extent at least it is the religious parties that are insisting upon so there have been tensions and good reasons putting aside whatever pressure there's been from the Americans whatever promises have been

made to the Israeli government by um Donald Trump's and his team about a possible Ultimate Showdown with Iran there have been lots of reasons why the Israelis might have agreed to a ceasefire at this time but I did wonder why exactly Hezbollah agreed to a ceas fire after all they had previously said that they would not agree to a ceasefire unless and until there was a ceasefire in Gaza and um that ceasefire has not yet been agreed by the Israelis in the meantime uh fighting continues to go on in Gaza and yet somewhat unexpectedly at

a point when one began to sense that the military balance in the fighting in southern Lebanon was starting to shift ever so slightly in hezbollah's Advantage the Israelis were stuck and not making much progress the israelies were starting to suffer losses there were problems with the reservists apparently um a decision had actually been made to pull recently Mobil mobilized reservists out of the fighting um it looked as if things were slightly starting to shift back in favor of Hezbollah and I wonder whether again it is this crisis in Syria that caused Hezbollah to decide and

Iran which of course backs Hezbollah to decide that a ceasefire is needed because one of the major allies that has fought alongside the Syrian Army um in the various Wars has been Hezbollah uh Hezbollah fighters who were previously deployed in Syria have had to be redeployed to Lebanon to resist the Israelis there that has helped I suspect to some extent in weakening the overall force posture of the Syrian military in uh Northwest Syria allowing this um Advance on Aleppo to take place and that in turn has put at risk hezbollah's supply lines from Iran now

I'm going to make here my own observation which is that there's been a lot of discussion that one of the reasons why the Syrian military and Hezbollah and the others were not prepared for this um islamist offensive was because of supposedly heavy Israeli bombing on their positions in Northwest alapo now I have been tracking this bombing in significant with significant degree of attention just to keep an eye of what it was that the Israelis were doing and I have to say this my own sense is that the level of this bombing has not been anywhere

close to being heavy enough or sustained enough to make sufficient difference so as to weaken the overall position of the Syrian military in Northwest Syria um there has been a certain amount of bombing but my over all sense has been that the weight of Israel's Air Force has been focused principally on Gaza and on Lebanon there's been bombing of some Supply routs into Lebanon and some warehouses and such things but overall the damage that has been done has been relatively limited not enough to explain what we have just seen by contrast the mass deployment of

Hezbollah fighters from Syria from Northwest Syria to Beirut and to Southern Lebanon to the area south of the Lani river that might have been sufficient to make a significant difference so Hezbollah perhaps aware that this offensive was being prepared um felt obliged and this would have been Iran's advice also felt obliged to agree to the ceasefire so that it can now begin or resume the process of redeploying its Fighters back to Syria to try to bring this whole situation in Northwest Syria back under control now these this is my um sense of the situation obviously

there's a lot of unanswered questions but we're going to have to see where this goes from here now what is going to happen next and how was it possible as I said that this force was assembled and the the syrians were caught napping well as I said the syrians probably were aware that there was this rebuilding of Jihadi forces or islamist forces in idlib they may not have expected this offensive now and if so that does point to a very very significant intelligence failure the question is who intelligence fa well the syrians obviously the question

is were the Russians was it the Russians was it the Iranians who were conducting intelligence operations in Northwest Syria I'm going to G make a guess that over the last three years most of the mo of the more sophisticated Russian intelligence analysts who were probably playing a role um reviewing and considering the intelligence the stream of intelligence data coming from Northwest Syria that they have been reassigned to dealing with the intelligence analyzing the intelligence from Ukraine and I think this was a deliberate decision and I suspect that the Russians have been saying to the syrians

at and to the Iranians well we we did our thing in Syria we pushed the We we played a key role in pushing the islamist fighters back now it's your job to make sure that the situation in Northwest Syria is kept under control and I suspect that if there has been any errors in intelligence analysis this is how it has come I'm going to guess that the syrians and the Iranians probably do not have the same intelligence resources and analys analytical resources as the Russians do and in the case of the Iranians also they would

have had to focus principally on what Israel and the United States have been up to but what happens next well I think a few points need to be made here firstly if we're talking about Russia there is a narrative that I've seen all over the media in the west which is that the Russians are now overwhelmingly focused on the conflict in Ukraine and that they really don't have the men and machines to spare to involve themselves in Syria again I think this is completely wrong and completely misreads the actual situation in the sense that Russia

is militarily speaking a far more powerful country today than it was when it first intervened in Syria back in 2015 at that time the rearmament the re-equipment of the Russian Air Force had barely started most of the Russian Air Force was op well the Russian Air Force was continuing to operate almost entirely with aircraft built during the period of the Soviet Union some of them had been extensively refurbished but nowhere to near to the extent that we see today I mean today the Russian Air Force is a completely different creature from what it was at

the start of Russia's intervention in Syria back in 2015 at that time as I remember they just had a handful of the advanced suho 34 fighter bombers which um played the key role in the bombing in Syria and eventually and in the first two years of the bombing the Russian Air Force was not operating so much suho 34s but suho 24's much older aircraft designed in the 1960s and 1970s and built entirely during the era of the Soviet Union today as I said the Russian Air Force is a completely different creature it has far more

modern aircraft in vastly bigger numbers and it is significantly bigger overall it is also far more experienced than it was in 2015 its technology has improved out of all recognition and of course it now has a huge stockpile and a growing Stop Bar from what I understand of weapons including of course these Fab uh guided bombs of which it had none back in 2015 to understand the extent of the Russian military's growth Russian Air Forces growth bear in mind that the Russians have just just over the last few weeks received more supplies more um deliveries

from the military industrial complex of suho 35s suho 34s there was another delivery of suho 34s just I believe a week ago and also um more deliveries of the suho 57 fifth generation Fighters it's like likely that there are around 30 suo 57s operating across the entire Air Force at the time of the Russian intervention in Syria I seem to remember that the number of operational suho 34s the fighter bombers was no more than around a dozen in the entire Russian Air Force so we have a far more sophisticated far bigger far more powerful Russian

military than we had in the at that time now that means that the Russians can certainly deploy or redeploy a an Air Group to Syria which would be significantly more powerful than the one that they deployed in 2015 or in the years that followed um and that they can do that without drawing significantly on the the air force their Air Force assets operating in Ukraine itself the Russian the total size of the Russian military contingent in Syria located at the Kim Air Base as I remember at its peak in terms of personnel numbered around 5,000

people bear in mind that the Russian military in Ukraine now numbers somewhere between 600 and 800,000 as I said the Russians can redeploy forces to Syria and do so in far more powerful force than they did in 2015 and this would not as I said affect their operations in Ukraine not at least to any significant degree in terms of Manpower and aircraft and bombs and that kind of thing intelligence assets might be another matter obviously the number of people who conduct intelligence analysis are able to conduct successful intelligence analysis at any one time is relatively

small and um readed deploying or or or reassigning some of these people back to follow the events in Syria um might have an an effect but again I think the Russians probably have enough um leeway to be able to uh uh enough in reserve to be able to deal with successfully with things like that and um well what about the other allies well I suspect that over the next couple of weeks the Syrian military will um redeploy forces or try to redeploy forces to Northwest Syria as I said we've got reports that a significant Force

um is being redeployed to the area but that it will not arrive in force for a further three days and of course um Hezbollah will no doubt be sending some of its Fighters and it's likely that the militias in Iraq who are also far larger and better organized than they were in 2015 they will be sending their Fighters too and there's probably some Kurdish militias aligned with the Syrian government and with Iran who will also what be prepared to participate in this operation as well if this is what I said previously a instance of a

Syrian Army that has stood down to some extent been taken by surprise as I said even if they had information a couple of days ago which I suspect they did that something was being prepared it's unlikely that there would have been enough time to um mobilize and redeploy men in order to counter this attack anyway if it was that it was simply a case of the syrians being taken by surprise and not being ready for this operation when it was launched despite all the troubling questions that gives rise rise to about intelligence failures and that

kind of thing then I think this situation will be brought fairly quickly back under control uh it's likely that it will be stabilized and there's a possibility that the uh Fighters the islamist fighters will be pushed out of Aleppo itself fairly quickly if on the other hand we are looking at a collapse like the one that happened to the Iraqi military in the fighting in mosul back in 2014 then as I said this is going to be a massive crisis and at that point one does wonder about whether or not the Syrian military even with

the help of the Iranians and the Russians are going to be able to get it bring it back under control that is at the moment the big unanswered question as I said on balance I lean to the view that this was the result of some major intelligence failure rather than a collapse but we'll just have to see now turning to the last point I want to make about the events of the last three days there have been some claims circulating that um the um presidents of Syria and Russia Putin and Assad have spoken with each

other that may be true but there is nothing to that effect nothing which confirms that so far on the Kremlin website having said this one person who is going to be very angry about what has happened is going to be president PU Putin himself President Putin of Russia as I said if erdogan deceived him over the course of that telephone conversation of a few days ago by plotting and offensive and concealing that fact from Putin then Putin is going to be furious with heran as he always does he will conceal his anger but there will

be at some point a price to pay and as I said it will affect Russia's response reaction um in Syria as well well I am fairly sure that Putin is also very angry not just with Eran and the Israelis but that he's almost certainly angry with Assad and with the Iranians as well because I suspect he probably did think that the situation could be in Syria could be left to the syrians and to the Iranians that the U islamist Fighters had been defeated largely through the work of the Russians and I think that Putin will

feel that the Iranians and the syrians have failed and I think that this is going to make him very angry indeed I suspect that he's also going to feel some anger about Bashar alassad towards Bashar Al Assad because one of the stories of the last few years is of a constant attempts by president erogan of Turkey to try to reestablish some kind of dialogue directly with Assad with all sorts of suggestions and proposals coming from erdoan for the two men to meet and it was fairly clear that the Russians were keen on that idea as

seeing it as a way towards finally bringing the conflict in Syria to an end however Assad for various reasons some good some perhaps not so good consistently refused to meet with Eran and I think that the Russians will be saying to Assad that this whole situation has largely been created by you in the sense that if you had agreed to meet with erdoan and had reestablished some kind of dialogue and rapo with him then Eran perhaps would not have been motivated to rearm and retrain and reorganize the jihadis and to launch him into this attack

against you in the way that he has just done what Assad would feel about that whether those words between the Russians and Assad will ever be exchanged I doubt that Putin himself will say that to Assad it's not his style but I've no doubt that there are many people in Moscow who think this that Assad became overconfident as a result of his success um thumbed his nose at erdan made it fairly clear that he wanted to see Eran quit the scene politically and that as a result of that miscalculation born of a sense of grievance

and arrogance the Syrian War which to all appearances had been ended has now restarted anyway there we go the next couple of days are going to be critical obviously there's the um Fighters the islamist fighters have apparently three days before the reinforcements supposedly arrive to run a mark in Aleppo and to do whatever damage they intend to do there and to try to establish fortified positions in Aleppo if once these reinforcements arrive if they are indeed heading in that direction if the expected Syrian counter attack fails or if it only achieves limited success then we're

looking look at a resumption of the Civil War the Syrian Civil War in Northwest Syria and that is a tragedy and a disaster for the people of Syria and it will be a major concern and distraction for the Russians and it will add to the general sense of tension and instability in the Middle East so there is this a very high stakes game that is now being played in Northwest Syria and we will see how it goes anyway that's what I'm going to say about the Syrian situation for the moment I'm now going to return

to a discussion of the situation in Ukraine now yesterday I spoke about the very strong action that the Russians had taken um over the last couple of days in response to the um in in response to the um Ukrainian American British missile strikes on Russian territory in Brians and kusk region the fact that five attacks launches according to the Russian defense Ministry have been destroyed that um the Russians have been hunting Western Personnel in Ukraine surprising to me how little comment about this there has been even though the Russian defense Ministry report on this issue

could not be more clear anyway um the Russians have been going out of their way since then again to make clear that their position on the settlement of the Ukraine war has not changed the Russian Deputy ambassador to the United Nations Dimitri pansi who by the way has agreed on appeared on our programs on the Duran anyway he has he gave a very powerful address to the UN Security Council in which he made clear that the Russians are not going to retreat from their fundamental positions and that they absolutely do reserve the right of themselves

to launch missile strikes against American British French installations across Europe and elsewhere and of course if Germany starts supplying the tourist missiles after the elections in February against Germany presumably as well so is a powerful address and that there is there was no sign there of any weakening or softening of the O overall position now today um Ser yabu the Russian Deputy foreign minister has pointedly said that there is a real possibility eventually of a nuclear exchange though the Russians will do everything possible to present it we have said everything that needed to be said

in terms of scenarios for the use of nuclear weapons the president has made statements on the matter and it is also reflected in the updated foundations of Russia's State policy in the field of nuclear deterrence saying that this risk is not there anymore would violate the truth unfortunately such a risk does exist we will do the most we can to prevent this catastrophic scenario however not everything depends on us in the past major research was carried out many times including by Professionals in order to assess the potential consequences today the situation is very difficult and

tense the West the United States need to understand that our messages about various Pro possible scenarios on propaganda but reality the key question is what what our opponents will do and whether they will continue towards implementing the scenarios that are described in Russian military Doctrine which is the foundation of our state policy for now unfortunately this is where things are heading we need to face the truth and take note of this which is what we are doing I hope that our ver verbal and material messages are getting through to certain American officers and bunk offices

and bunkers and aren't being dismissed as propaganda it's not propaganda but a stark reality that needs to be accepted so that was a riap and the Russians are now saying other um equally concerning things uh specifically arabov himself is saying that the Russians are are now considering resuming nuclear tests this is the issue I don't want to portend anything but we but we'll simply say that this issue is quite complicated it is under constant review in the entirety of all its elements and in all its aspects and there is a report from the um uh

from another Russian official I believe that the the nuclear test site the Russian nuclear test site at Nova zamia which is an island in the Arctic um that that test those Test Facilities are ready to be placed back in operation the last time a nuclear test was conducted in noia was by the Soviet Union in 19 90 but that there is a possibility that more nule that nuclear tests could resume because of the steady deterioration intentions so further warnings from the Russians very strong warnings from the Russians now today is the 30th of November there's

been much speculation over the last couple of days that it was on the 30th of November that the next oreshkin uh um um the next the next St strike with the oreshkin missile would take place um I've pointed out that this is all based on reports about the closure of airspace around the Space Center at capotin yard um near the Caspian um that is far from a rare occurrence and I'm far from convinced actually that the Russians would be giving away information that far in advance about where uh when the next um strike is likely

to take place so I I'm not convinced that the next missile strike big missile strike is indeed going to happen um today but anyway we still have some hours perhaps it will be today we shall just have to wait and see that a strike will take place at some time of that I am fairly sure though I think that the destruction of the attack's launches and the deaths of the US and French Personnel if they that has really happened already the Russians might think sends a significant and very strong message now President Biden U made

some extremely strong comments directly after the um major Russian strikes on the um on the um Ukrainian energy system um he he said this overnight this is on the White House web website overnight Russia carried out a horrific aerial attack against Ukraine Ukrainian authorities report that Russia launched nearly 200 missiles and drones against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure depriving Ukrainian citizens of access to electricity this attack is outrageous and serves as yet another reminder of the urgency and importance of supporting the Ukrainian people in their defense against Russian aggression on this day my message to

the Ukrainian people is clear the United States stands with you uh earlier this year and at my direction the United States by began prioritizing air defense in exports so they go to Ukraine first the Department of Defense has delivered hundreds of additional air defense missiles to Ukraine as a consequence of this decision and further deliveries are underway well I can't imagine that the ukrainians take much Sol from that we've seen that despite all of these hundreds of deliveries the Russians are still able to attack positions right across Ukraine in the way that they have just

done and then he went on to he goes on to say for months my Administration has begun working to help Ukraine increase the resilience of its energy Grid in preparation for the winter and the Department of Defense continues to Surge other critical capabilities to Ukraine in including artillery rockets and armored vehicles Russia continues to underestimate The Bravery resilience and determination of the Ukrainian people the United States stands with more than 50 countries in support of Ukraine and its Fight For Freedom which of course begs the question of what the other 140 or countries that are

presumably not standing by Ukraine are doing now this is an extremely um unusual statement from Biden um in at this time and I wonder whether what has really provoked the US Biden himself and the White House to make a statement like this at this time is not so much the attacks on the energy system which is of course what um Biden here is complaining about but rather the attacks on the attackin launches the destruction the mass destruction of the attackers launches and presumably if it's true which Perhaps it is in light of this statement the

um attack and the deaths of the US Personnel the US personnel and of course also the French Personnel I mean the language horrific attack and outrageous attack which appears in this statement after all the attacks on the Energy System have been fairly I mean they've been going on ever since October 2022 there's been nothing significant or particularly new there anyway I wonder whether as I said words like um um out horrific and outrageous aren't really more intended to express Biden's and American feelings about these attacks on the attack's missiles and on the uh us and

French military personnel and of course in that case this whole strange statement becomes somewhat more comprehensible it's telling the Russians back look you may be destroying our attack's launchers you may be killing our people but don't think that's going to change anything we're going to go on supporting Ukraine we're going to send even more weap weapons and even more machines and even more equipment to Ukraine and well um you're not going to intimidate us so that's essentially what Biden is saying note however that in this statement he says absolutely nothing about further missile strikes on

Russia which is interesting um could it be just asking the question that that further strikes with attack's missiles on Kos region and on Brians region and those sort of places have been put on hold in light of the mass destruction of of high Mars launchers in the area just just saying uh so that might explain this statement it does give some sort of feeling about at least to me I'm going to say what I think I think that this is probably what has provoked it more than anything else but that does not mean that the

Russian attack the the Mass Attack on the energy system that Biden is so fiercely complaining about has not had an effect because it seems that amongst the principal targets that the Russians went after were the Transformers um a whole cluster of them have apparently been destroyed and the point about the Transformers is that they are the they are essential in order to transfer energy from the Ukrainian nuclear power stations across the what's left of the Ukrainian El electricity grid and also by the way to transfer electric power to the nuclear power stations which is obviously

necessary in order to keep those nuclear power stations running and in fact there are some reports even um as I make this program that the ukrainians are now having to close or at least um put out close operations in some parts of their nuclear power industry that some of the reactors are having to be taken offline though I'm not absolutely sure that this is the case and all sorts of reports and rumors and stories constantly circulate that one can't assume necessarily mean very much anyway there we are that is the that is the story about

the strikes uh for the moment there's been no further reports of strikes um since the Russian the big Russian Counter Strike instead as I said we've had this spluttering statement from Biden instead but of course the Russians in the meantime continue to hammer the um um Ukrainian Energy System um which it is important to say is going to have a critical effect on Ukraine's whole energy situation through the winter and of course it's going to create a terrible crisis for the Ukrainian people during the winter and we we will see what comes from that in

the meantime the purported purpose of the original strikes the strikes into Russia which was to help the ukrainians defend themselves in Kos region well the latest reports suggest that Russian attacks incremental attacks on the Ukrainian troops in Kos region have resumed and that the Russians have um reestablished either reestablished control of the village of martinov just nor north east of suja or are close to doing so which if true would bring the Russians very close to suja again anyway we doesn't seem as I said as if these missile strikes for the moment have achieved very

much well the there's been a lot going on on the battlefronts and I am going to turn to that shortly but I I noticed that there has been a lot of the attention instead in the media in the media in the west the mainstream media parts of Independent Media as well has been focusing on certain comments made by Ukraine's president president zalinski and it's all about negotiations the future negotiations and he has said that um Ukraine might be prepared to accept on a temporary basis Russian occupation of some of the territory in eastern Ukraine which

the Russians occupy and that Ukraine would agree to a ceasefire on that basis but it will only do so in return for a guarantee in fact of NATO membership indeed in fact for NATO membership itself something of course which is completely unacceptable to the Russians many people many commentators and in the western media I think that there is a concerted attempt to try to spin this many are seeing this as a m major shift from zelinsky's on the part of zalinski from his previous insistence that every millimeter of Ukrainian territory needs to be retained to

returned to Ukrainian control including Crimea all of donbass and the rest I have to say I don't see it that way at all zalinski has at various times said many things over the course of the conflict about the kind of conditions that he was prepared to uh that he the kind of things that he was prepared to do in order to achieve peace it is fair to say that for most of the period of the conflict he is categorically ruled out a ceasefire or a freeze of the fighting in any one particular place he's always

insisted that the only way the fighting can cease is if the Russians are completely driven out of every part of Ukraine including what he says Ukraine including Crimea and Ukraine can then join NATO and then maybe there can be serious negotiations with the Russians um at which point the Russian the negotiations would be about the scale of the rep reparations the Russians would pay to Ukraine and the war crimes trials that Russian leaders would be subjected to and that kind of thing demand in other words for Russia's unconditional surrender well he has always he that's

been his major talking point but more recently over the last couple of months as it's become increasingly clear that the war has been lost he has floated this very same I don't think it's even a proposal this very same conception um before which is that yes okay if you have to have a ceasefire we will agree to cease agree to a ceasefire though based on what his chief of staff Andre ymar is saying it would involve the Russians retreating back to the February 2022 lines and that ceasefire would only be a transitional process whereby the

Russians were compelled or pushed diplomatically forced to uh seed ultimate control of all of the territory of Ukraine including uh the territory of the two people's republics as it was before February 2022 plus Crimea to Ukraine and of course in the meantime Ukraine would enter NATO so he has said this before this is not actually new and of course it's absolutely the key thing to say is is that it is absolutely unacceptable to the Russians now zinski is saying these things and um the media in the west as I said there's clearly a concerted campaign

underway about this are repeating all of this or presenting this as a major shift in position by zalinski because of course they know that Ukraine is losing the war which it is and they also know that Donald Trump appears to want some kind of a peace settlement in Ukraine or at least some kind of ending of the ukra of the American involvement in the Ukraine conflict and what zalinski is trying to do or so it seems to me is to put himself in a good light with Trump and Kellogg and with the Americans in fact

he's almost said as much he said that there are many different voices many different people giving advice to Trump at the present time and that um the what he needs to do what he zinski therefore needs to do is to speak directly to um Trump himself in order to get Trump to understand the position from his and from Ukraine's point to view and I think that this is all this is it's an attempt to try to win Trump and the administration back into what will be what is intended to be an open-ended military support for

Ukraine in other words to draw the Trump Administration and the Americans back into the conflict in Ukraine by telling Trump and Kellogg look we we are actually willing to make concessions we're made willing to make this concession which of course the Russians will undoubtedly reject it's only a a transitional the r concession but we're prepared to show some flexibility it's the Russians however Who Remain the aggressors who make all of these demands upon us and until they come to our way of thinking then you need to go on continuing to support Ukraine continuing to shovel

money at Ukraine continuing to send endless supplies of weapons to Ukraine well um I don't know what general Kellogg is going to make of all of that I don't know what Donald Trump is going to make of all of that but we've now had a very interesting opinion poll from CBS News Yuga and it gives a sense of what the American people think uh the poll which is conducted between November 19th and November 22nd found that 51% of Americans believe that the United States should not send further weapons or military aid to Ukraine that is

a majority 49% do back further military aid to Ukraine so that's still a significant number of people but 79% a very large minor majority believe that finding ways to limit Aid to Ukraine should be a priority for president elect Trump and 33% said it should be a high priority whilst another 36% said that it should be a medium priority the American people one way or the other want America's involvement in the war to end that is the biggest takeway from this opinion poll um a majority a bare majority would like to end it immediately now

without any further discussion a very significant majority around 80% wanted to be brought to an end as soon as possible and 33% think that this should be a high priority for Trump and 36% think it should be a medium priority perhaps not the highest priority but still a priority if he is wise this is what Donald Trump should listen to um the American people have had as much of Ukraine as they can take they want their government to focus more on domestic things the recent elections in Romania the European un Parliament elections of a couple

of months ago the elections in France the Parliamentary elections in France elections in Austria they all tell the same story it's that that is also the general mood amongst Western public they are collectively exhausted by project Ukraine they may not think very much about the Russians or about President Putin they may not understand the detail of the arguments about the Minsk agreement and who broke what agreements and who was responsible for starting the war but they want the war to end this is a time of economic difficulty for many people there's been very high inflation

I think many people at some level understand or sense that the inflation is connected to the war and they want the war to be brought to an end in Europe governments so far do not reflect that feeling in the United States they voted just a few weeks ago for a new government which they expected would if this Government after it is inaugurated disappoints them there will be a significant political price to pay just say so anyway that brings me back to what is going on in the war because it is essential always to understand that

the war is um the the events in the war itself are what is driving the overall political diplomat IC discussions and here we've had about two three days ago reports that General syi the Ukrainian military commander is again talking about an offensive somewhere there's speculation that it will be another attack on the zapar Roan nuclear power plant perhaps a Ukrainian strike across the kurakov reservoir one once the ground hardens um late in the later in the winter that be extraordinarily dangerous thing to do but who knows maybe the ukrainians are thinking of that or maybe

this is just Brave talk from zilinski himself for rather from syi himself because everywhere else the situation continues to get go from bad to worse now now um as I said I was away uh whil away um for for about a week in Hungary I'm gradually piecing together what's been happening on the various battlefronts it's in some respects the usual grinding Story the Russians continuing to make incremental advances um pushing the ukrainians back inflicting severe losses on the UK ukrainians focusing on destroying Ukrainian so uh military units and machines uh that appears to be continue

to be perhaps the overriding priority but all of that is happening together with ever ever accelerating advances and from what I can see the Russians have been taking a whole series of different Villages under their control in um the area around Vaya noo Silka they have a significant presence within Vaya noos Silka itself they've seen Now to control roughly 60% of kuraku and have captured a significant stretch of villages North sou rather South both south and north of kurakov north of the kurakov reservoir um I I have to say that it looks to me as

if at least two significant cauldrons perhaps three significant cauldrons are forming one of the Ukrainian troops within qu itself now basically pushed back to the town's Western outskirts secondly um in an area south of kurakov where the ukrainians are increasingly being pushed out of the villages and are at risk of being surrounded in winter in the Open Fields which would be a disaster for them and lastly in v y noo Silka itself certainly lots of villages which uh were still being contested before I went to Hungary now seem to be fully under Russian control uh

there are still some Villages which I'm not entirely certain about but it does look as if um as I said there's been a major um advances by the Russians in all of these areas and that the Ukrainian resistance is becoming increasingly fragmented and um that the troops who are still fighting here the Ukrainian troops who are still fighting here are at risk now of encirclement and the Russians of course also have been continuing to capture new Villages more Villages um Southwest of pakros I noticed that for example Russian the Russians now seem to be either

attacking or in control already in control of villages to the southwest of the important Village of Liska south of pakros which I remember at one point appeared to be well to the west of Russian positions at the time um sometime uh before I uh went off went to Hungary so one gets a sense of a gradual breaking down of the Ukrainian positions and of large numbers of Ukrainian forces becoming surrounded and of the situation becoming increasingly difficult for them and apparently the ukrainians short of men almost everywhere an increasingly difficult situation in other words for

the ukrainians in the critical pakros Center and one which is certain to deteriorate further and I've not heard more information over the last couple of hours about the fighting in tet and CHF yat though it does seem that the Russians are now well established in the central areas of chuia and in the industrial Zone and are um busy fighting to capture the various uh factories that are situated there further north in kin uh rova the Russian newspaper based in smans um has been reporting extensively about the establishment of a large Russian um Bridge Head West

of the oscal river and it is now claiming it's only a claim that the Russian attack on Northeastern kpin the one which saw the Russians Advance deep into North Eastern Copans was actually a faint intended to draw Ukraine troops away from other positions around kpin opening the way for the Russians to establish this bridge head across the oscal river now that might be a rationalization of what has happened or it could perhaps actually reflect genuine Russian strategy but anyway the overall story continues to be the same the ukrainians short of men right across the battle

fronts the Russians focusing so far as I can see increasingly on isolating and um destroying Ukrainian units um out in the open pushing them out of the towns and destroying them in Winter out in the open and the Russians perhaps preparing for a big offensive to towards the Nea River now I don't know what plan general sirki actually has for a Ukrainian offensive whether it is directed towards zapor roia nuclear power plant or towards um or for another attack on Russia itself somewhere all of that seems to me extremely unwise um I doubt that Ukraine

has the forces any longer to conduct such an defensive I suspect it's Brave talk intended to boost Ukrainian morale and to somehow persuade the Americans that despite all appearances Ukraine is still in the fight but though the last Remains the case yes Ukraine is in the fight but it is a fight that Ukraine is clearly losing even the former Ukrainian foreign minister dimitro kber admitted to the financial times in an interview that there is now a real possibility that Ukraine could lose the war so there we are the events in Syria are not going to

divert the Russians from their overriding focus on Ukraine or lead to the Russians redeploying significant forces such as would make a difference from Ukraine to counter this attack on Aleppo the Russians are not going to accept the terms The Proposal that zeny has just floated uh that they're left in control of a few pieces of Ukrainian territory but Ukraine in return is going to enter NATO and presumably will get the hundreds of thousands of the 100 thousand you Western troops that some people are talking about um none of that is going to happen what I

think we will probably see is the general Kellogg will at some point turn up in Moscow he will presumably first want to meet with the Europeans and the ukrainians that has to be done but he will turn up in Moscow if he's wise he will listen to what the Russians are telling him and he will understand that the Russians are still playing are playing with extremely strong cards if he thinks that the Russians have suffered debilitating losses and that kind of thing and that they're looking for a way out of the war then he has

swallowed propaganda and is indulging himself in Illusions he General General cavali the head of the NATO forces in Europe has actually said on the contrary the Russian military today is bigger more powerful than it was when the conflict began and that is the reality and that is the reality that is going to decide the war well this is where I finish my program today there'll be more from me soon let me remind you again that you can find all our programs on our various platforms locals Rumble and X you can support our work VI patreon

And subscribe star and uh by going um by by by checking our shop links under this video and last but not least please remember to tick the like button and to check your subscription to this channel that's me for today more from me soon have a very good day [Music]