How Much Higher Will Bitcoin Go? | Mark Yusko’s 2025 Predictions

I know there are some now saying that you know because of trump and because of the Bitcoin strategic reserve and you know there's going to be this massive movement toward accumulating Bitcoin and I'm pretty skeptical of that I've been doing venture capital in the space for almost seven years I've never met a cardano developer not one if ethereum didn't exist and was invented today would anybody use it is there anything that surprised you in 2024 that you were not expecting ah so many things so many people had their expectations built up positively for the having

that we would you have this parabolic move right after the having and and that clearly didn't happen didn't happen you saw a pretty meaningful sell down from you know 74,000 all the way down to 53,000 I think that caught a lot of people off guard on the same day as the approval of the Bitcoin ETFs the CME released a whole bunch of additional Futures products that essentially increased the liquidity pool for people to take the opposite side right you can go short Futures you go long the ETF have a market neutral trade but that constant

selling in the Futures Market puts a cap on upward trajectory of prices and even could put downward pressure if somebody else piles on and goes naked short so this downward Relentless pressure finally dissipated in September and we made this really rocket ship move all the way back to New all-time highs and the nice thing is we've seen this accumulation pattern again higher highs and higher lows so according to your view drum selection as the main catalyst that inverted this trend well no no it it was an accelerator I think it was more the tail as

opposed to the dog I think the dog is the fact that there's new money coming into this Market uh the the big buyers right some of the other you know Global large owners uh continued to to buy and the ETFs just Relentless buying but if no one's willing to sell then the bid has to keep coming up to encourage people to part with their Bitcoin and I think that's what we're seeing now there was another thing that probably surprised you because I remember that back in January you were saying that you were not really expecting

an ethereum ETF in the US to be approved anytime soon eventually we saw that happening in the summer but but it didn't seem to have such a big effect a big success as the Bitcoin ETF yeah no I I was a little surprised you know I thought gendler had been very clear that that he wasn't going to allow that to happen but but just like with the Bitcoin ETF he didn't want that either but uh eventually he had to relent and um I I give the the E people a lot of credit for getting that

through but to your point a surprise was that there wasn't the same follow through in price there was some demand for the ETF and and I think the reason for that is Bitcoin digital gold store of value that um Mantra I think is acceptable to Big institutional investors Sovereign wealth Etc the eth use case smart contracts platform toolkit it's like well maybe but what about this salana thing and what about this Avalanche thing and what about these other things that I hear about that are better and faster and cheaper and you know so I just

don't think there was as much Universal acceptance of the use case and the investment thesis as there was for Bitcoin yeah that that sounds like the Reason by um by the way now I would like to to talk about your outlook for 2025 so what are the Milestones that you're looking forward to in 2025 I'm pretty sure uh we're going to talk about the Bitcoin strategic Reserve but maybe you have hopes other so look I I am still a believer that the four-year cycle exists I know there are some now saying that you know because

of trump and because of the Bitcoin strategic reserve and you know there's going to be this massive movement toward accumulating Bitcoin and the four-year cycle is going to go out the window I'm I'm gonna bet that humans are going to human so uh my expectation for this year was that fair value which post having was going to be in the you know 80,000 is range somewhere like that would continue to a cre all the way to somewhere around 100K by where we are today so to me fair value is right around that that six-digit level

I figured we would blow through that that six-digit number and then humans would human the humans would come in and they'd start to lever up and and we'd see a parabolic move probably to 120 maybe even 150 this time in 25 it'll be april-ish and that would kind of make sense a year after the the having so at that point we we'd hit that that eoent level then the question is do we get the passage of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve do we get you know Tom Lee was on on CNBC talking about this saying that

you know the exchanges don't have enough Bitcoin on their on their platforms and people are gonna be scrambling for it certainly possible could that push us well past that that 150k range uh it's certainly possible I I you know if you think about a bell curve distribution to me the most likely is we get to fair value we go to call it 50% premium above fair value so that's in that 150 range and then unfortunately we have another bare Market starting midye 2025 and we enter crypto winter again now those who think that crypto winter

is never going to come again I'm pretty skeptical of that personally I mean history is you know it's interesting I ask people this all the time look at parabolic charts show me one and all I want to see is one no one's ever ever show me one show me a parabolic chart that goes parabolic and then goes flat a new higher Plateau none of them do that right they go parabolic and they keep going parabolic then eventually they go down so your outlook seem to me quite realistic if compared to the one we heard from

Samson Mau who came on our show lately he was saying that he expects Bitcoin to reach $1 million next year what can you say about that prediction I think Samson's a great great thinker on this and I mean but let's just do some math right now the challenge I have with with that is a 20 trillion market cap so we just hit two trillion or we're just under two trillion a 10x from here means $2 trillion well $2 trillion what has to happen for this asset to be worth 20 trillion so people have said it's

digital gold right well all of the gold in the world above ground is like12 trillion well only half of that counts because half of it is jewelry and chalises and gold leaf and and gold bars um that really doesn't count what well the gold bars you because they're part of the monetary base the monetary value of gos about 6 trillion so we're a third of the way there already so the idea that the monetary base if if Bitcoin is digital gold and it needs to replace the base layer of gold in central banks around the

world sixish trillion is plenty now but that's not all going to be owned by central banks because there's individual holders okay well the those those central banks have got to buy it from somebody and those you know sellers people say well I'm never going to sell well okay but there's someone's got to sell for someone to buy that's the way markets work uh they can't make more out of thin air like like fiat currency so in that environment Samson's point is interesting because if I'm a central bank and i' say I have to buy 200,000

coins and Tom Lee says 's no one to sell it to me well then I got to keep bidding the price up so could you see a parabolic move sure but the problem I I see with that is if the monetary aggregate base has to increase so much in order to displace gold what does that do to overall prices of everything probably not a very good thing and what does that do for overall economic activity probably not a very good thing and then what does that do for future demand so it's all interconnected so as

a final question I wanted to get your outlook on altcoins for 2025 are there any specific altcoins out there who are you excited about you know we don't trade them in fact I was talking on a show last week about this that we historically don't play in in that area and the reason is our funds 70% of the money goes into Equity of businesses that support the digital asset ecosystem 30% goes into liquid protocols themselves but we tend to stay in the Bitcoin ethereum salana Avalanche Unis swap things that we think have a long-term future

kind of the picks and shovels of the digital age so I have historically been you know pretty open-minded Ed but pretty anti- uh things like xrp and cardano and hia because I couldn't see anyone building on them like I've yet I've been doing venture capital in the space for almost seven years I've never met a cardono developer not one now I'm sure and then somebody put out on on the all you developers call Mark I still haven't gotten a call so if you're out there call me Mike I struggle with a the a little bit

because someone asked me the question I thought it was a good question he said if ethereum didn't exist and was invented today would anybody use it it's a very interesting question right it's more expensive and slower than the competitors so if it didn't have this giant installed base because it was first would people use it I think the answer is no it doesn't mean that everyone's going to bail on ethereum that's not my point but it was an interesting perspective so that explains why salana and Avalanche and other things have have done well Mark it's

always a pleasure to have you on our show I look forward to talk to you again in 2025 all right thank you sir [Music] [Music]