Donald Trump's SHOCKING impact on India? : Geopolitical Case study

Cala you're fired get out of here you're fired Trump reclaiming the White House the winner of the 2024 presidential election and look what happened Donald Trump officially wins the race for president the outcome of this election is not what we wanted ladies and gentlemen give it up for the greatest capitalist in the history Donald Trump will be the 47th president of the United States hi everybody 4 years after being impeached for his role in a violent attack on Congress 5 months after being convicted for a felony in New York and just 3 months after surviving

an assassination attempt Donald Trump is now back at the White House as the President of the United States of America and let me tell you that while this is big news for America it is about to shake the markets of India now that Donald Trump is in power he's about to again reverse the policies that Biden reversed in his tenure after Trump's tenure and if you've seen things school's case studies you would know that America is so crucial for the world that they say that if America sneezes the entire world catches cold and to understand

the impact of Donald Trump on India we are referring to this Philip Capital report which talks about how Donald Trump will impact everything in India from H1B visas to the Indian IT industry to defense to Pharma to Auto to solar and to even the geopolitical war between Russia and Ukraine so in this episode today let's do a FastTrack overview on how will Trump's policies affect India which sectors of India will be positively affected which sectors of India will be negatively affected and most importantly how will it change the position of India in the geopolitics of

the 21st century but before before we move on I want to quickly thank the partners of today's episode which is build school people today AI isn't just a tool for the tech savvy it's reshaping Industries influencing public opinion and driving change on a global scale but what if AI could do more than just keeping you informed what if AI could Empower you to build something meaningful and to help you create income streams all of this could be done without writing a single line of code meet watsell he started with no Tech background no coding skills

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and how to find users and start earning from your product butel has already helped over 1,000 people and this master class will equip you with a straightforward road map and help you turn ideas into income so don't let your ideas just stay ideas click the link in the description to join this free master class and take the first step towards building your own AI success story firstly let's talk about geopolitics because Trump is very very radical about Russia China and India we're going to have a great relationship but it's got to be a fair relationship

China was taking advantage of the country I actually looked at some deals i' say nobody could be so stupid to sign a deal that's one so one-sided let's start with Russia Donald Trump has repeatedly promised to end the Russia Ukraine war he says he will broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and he would demilitarize Russian occupied Ukrainian territories If I Was President there would not have been a war with Russia in Ukraine zero chance I would have a peace deal negotiated within 24 hours your strength would have never happen so guess what if

this happens India will face less pressure from the west and by chance if Trump lift the sanctions on Russia then Russian oil will enter the world economy oil prices will go down wheat prices will go down due to Russia being the biggest supplier of wheat in the world and several other Russian Commodities will bring down the prices due to the increase in Supply in the world economy and this will help us curb inflation in India and just like Russia Trump's view on China is also very very clear Donald Trump absolutely hates China and this hate

is about to reignite one of the biggest trade Wars in world history which is the US China trade War the president elect has promised to slap 60% tariffs on all Chinese imported goods China's leaders will likely be bracing for a ratcheting up of the trade war with the US under a second Trump Administration as it turns out Donald Trump plans to slap a massive 60% tariff on chinesee inputs on top of that Trump also wants to snatch China's golden trading status called the most favored nation and here's where there is a big big opportunity for

India let me explain how for those who don't know mfn or most favored nation is a status in trading which means all countries in the mfn list will get the same treatment when it comes to trade for example if China and India both have mfn status with the United States if the US lowers the tariffs on Chinese Steel by 20% it must also lower the tariffs on Indian Steel by 20% to keep it fair but if a country loses its mfn status US can and will increase taxes on Chinese Goods without increasing it on Indian

goods and this means India has three massive advantages number one India can tap into this huge gap to increase its exports to the US secondly the US China trade war and China's exclusion from the mfn status will accelerate the relocation of manufacturing plants assembly lines and Supply chains all the way from China to India and this will help us create jobs in India and lastly India will be able to leverage this new found status to forge deeper economic and diplomatic ties with the Western Powers so our influence in the World Trade will increase secondly the

impact that Trump will have on the IT industry of India will be very very significant according to this business standard article Indian it service industry exports 54% of their output to the United States and now due to Trump they could face some serious challenges because of Trump's anti-immigration stunts I will stop the invasion of criminals coming into our country today our cities are flooded with illegal aliens Americans are being squeezed out of the labor force and their jobs are taken and it's true that destroying the blood of our country that's what they're doing long story

short Trump wants to make it very difficult for foreign students and professionals to get visas to study and work in the US and the reason is pretty simple he wants to give those jobs to the US citizens so all companies like TCS vipon infosis they might have to take a hit because they'll have to hire talent in the US and not send Indians and that will make it very very costly for them and it's not something that is happening for the first time this has happened before as well look at this in 2016 the denial

rate for H1B Visa was just 10% but after Trump took office by 2018 it peaked to 24% so with Trump back in office we might see more rejections for the H1B visas and this means three things for India number one less opportunity for Indians to the US unless they are super talented number two great opportunity for India because more Indian Engineers will stay back in India and lastly if you are an incompetent engineer in India then life will be very tough because India will have better Engineers if this is very very clear to you let's

move on to the next sector which is Pharmaceuticals people the United States is super duper important for the Indian Pharma industry because us literally accounts for 31% of Indian Pharma exports and now Trump has something that could impact our companies proms stance on Pharma is that he wants to reduce the prices of drugs in America and did you know that Americans are charged twice as compared to other countries for the exact same drug in fact patients in the US are forced to spend five times more on a common breast cancer medication than patients in other

countries this is primarily set to happen due to lobbing whereby companies come together to purposefully increase the price together so that all companies can increase their margins and this is causing a big big pain for American patients but now Trump wants to change this in fact in his last tenure Trump capped insulin cost for many senior citizens at just $35 a month now you might think how is this going to impact the Indian Pharma industry well as it turns out Indian companies primarily survived in the US due to the high cost of the American companies

because of which they could sell generic drugs at low cost but now if all companies have to reduce their price then Indian Pharma companies will see their margins reduce the next sector that will take a hit is the automobile sector to tell you about it us is India's biggest market for auto components and it made up 20 7% of our exports in f524 but as it turns out Donald Trump supports fossil fuels and he is not pro e on day one I will terminate Kooker Joe's ridiculous electric vehicle mandate if you want to drive down

to the store to buy clothing or if you want to do something locally it is fun but these cars don't go very far now I know this is quite surprising because Elon Musk himself endorsed Trump but nonetheless Trump is expected to cut subsidies on EVS for both customers and manufacturers and this will again slow down EV sales in the US that could have a short-term impact on Indian Auto component players who export their components to us one example is Sona blw which has an 80% auto book dependent on E secondly because of Trump's America First

policy he wants to stop Manufacturing compents in countries like China and Mexico and he wants to bring back manufacturing into the United States and this might again hamper our Auto export industry thirdly Trump has promised to boost infrastructure spending for transportation and if this happens we could see a jump in demand for these Class 8 trucks and here's where companies like bhat Forge and RK forging will benefit because they provide key parts for heavy duty trucks to America at the same time if the administration follows through on massive infrastructure projects the demand for steel could

surge which will again benefit Indian companies that export steel to the United States so in short for auto while Trump's strong stands against climate change in EVS May initially hurt our EV component suppliers his trade war with China could really open new doors in the hybrid heavy truck segments and even IC engine market for India if this is very very clear to you let's come to the solar industry of India now like I already said Trump can now increase the import tariffs up to 60% or even higher on Chinese goods and this means Indian components

will soon become cheaper in the US market and this will again benefit companies like Vari energies whose 67% revenue is coming from the United States itself we've made a complete case stud on Vari energies and you must check it out from the link in the description moving on there is one more impact that Trump will have on the Indian market and that are higher loan rates in India but the question is how is that possible well that is because analysts say that if Trump suddenly imposes tff on imported goods in the US it would cause

inflation in the US and to counter this inflation the the feds might increase their interest rates and when the feds in the US increase their interest rates it means even RBI might not be able to lower its interest rates in India as in RBI will also start charging higher interest rates to HDFC like Banks who will then charge more interest rates to customers like you and me and if the interest rates go up the loans will get more expensive and the Indian economy will slow down due to less consumption and again we've made a detailed

case study on these repo rates and their impact on the the Indian economy and you can find the video from the link in the description so in summary H1B visas will get tougher to get Russia will benefit oil prices may come down if Russian oil is back in the market steel companies will benefit due to infr growth solar companies will benefit due to us China trade War Auto component exporters will benefit due to infrastructure growth in the US EV component companies may suffer a setback due to Trump being anti EV Indian exporters who can compete

with Chinese prices will benefit due to the US China trade War Indian Pharma companies may see their margins decrease and lastly if inflation happens in the US which leads to interest hikes it might result into more interest rates here in India which will eventually increase our loan rates eventually our consumption in the economy will slow down this is how Trump might affect India in the near future and I'm attaching the complete report of Philip capital in the description so that you can read through all other details that I haven't covered in this episode and I

just hope you learned something valuable from this case study that's all from my side for today guys if you learn something valuable please make sure to hit the like button in order to make yoube baa happy and for more such insightful business and political case studies please subscribe to our Channel thank you so much for watching I will see you in the next one [Music] [Music]