Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

hey everyone and thanks for jumpping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about Bitcoin dubious speculation if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and check out into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse decom let's go ahead and jump in so as always guys I don't have a crystal ball I don't know what's going to happen in the market but I will do the best job I can as to outlining what I think are let's say the most likely outcomes even though

sometimes the most likely outcomes as far as I see don't always play out I will continue to to at least talk about them if you're new one of the things that we've been tracking really closely this year is the comparison of Bitcoin in 2024 to Bitcoin in 2019 now why do we make that comparison and anytime I post about it on Twitter about 2024 and 2019 like a lot of people are always like well you know this is a having year why should we be concerned about what Bitcoin did in a preh having year in

a prior cycle right why why concern ourselves with that I think the biggest evidence for why it's important why monetary policy plays a role is looking at at flows within the cryptoverse and are we are we trending towards you know Bitcoin season is it altcoin season right and by what I mean by that is what's outperforming what right is Bitcoin outperforming alts or are alts outperforming Bitcoin and one of the things that I I think a lot of people came into this year with was the expectation that Bitcoin dominance would go down and the reason

they came into this year thinking that and calling for alt season prematurely as I said many times was because both in 2016 and in 2020 you can see that Bitcoin dominance basically dropped about 15% by about this time in the year right about 15% now if you were to go look at at at Bitcoin dominance we'll talk about usdt dominance too the at sometime later in the video but if you were to look at Bitcoin dominance and we were to go to say the beginning of the year where Bitcoin dominance began the year was around

51.6% now 15 % down from there would would have put it at 43% right so back over here one of the reasons why so many people were convinced that alt season was going to occur was because normally in having years Bitcoin dominance goes down but over here in our neck of the uh neck of the woods our small allocation of the cryptoverse we said no wait a second Bitcoin dominance is a reflection of monetary policy and when monetary policy is tight you should not expect dominance to go down on the contrary you should expect it

to go up and while Bitcoin dominance is normally down 15% by September in having years this year it was up about 15% around that same time so for me the biggest piece of evidence that monetary policy impacts the cryptoverse is Bitcoin dominance now I will be honest with you guys I don't need Bitcoin dominance to tell me that monetary policy is going to impact one of the riskiest asset classes that we know right a lot of this I think should be frankly common sense but and I I think when I talk about it with people

outside of the cryptoverse especially in say traditional Finance it's one of those things that is is more obvious to people like of course you know you're going to have the flight to safety trade during tighter monetary policy and high interest rates but it's been really difficult of course convincing people of that in the cryptoverse because of course people just want to talk about all season okay so this is the reason right and again if you look at at this year for dominance and you compare it to 2019 you can see it looks a lot more

similar to that than it does to 2016 or 2020 so when you look at at Bitcoin USD and you you say okay well let's assume for a minute that monetary policy does play a role which it does right but let's just assume if if you're not in agreement let's just assume for a minute that it does okay what would we expect if it were to play out like the last cycle right what would we expect now one of the things to remember is if you overlay interest rates onto the chart the only other time in

history where we can really look at a you know at a at a smaller business cycle is back over here in you know 2017 2018 2019 and then where rate Cuts ended up finding a bottom and so if because I consider monetary policy to play an important role with investing especially with crypto cryptocurrencies I have to compare this to this right for me I don't really care if it happens to correspond to a having year or not all I care about is what happened at that point right you could argue as well that in the

last cycle in the preh having year Bitcoin went down in Q4 right it went down in Q4 when normally right when normally or sorry well this year it went up or sorry last year last year it went up in Q4 so you can clearly see that it doesn't always play out in the same way in terms of time based comparisons right we can't just look at every preh having year and say bitcoin's going to go down in Q4 just like we can't look at every having year and say Bitcoin has to go up in Q4

so I I think for me I have to begin the analysis by saying look guys I get the the loudest criticism is going to come from people saying it's the having year stop comparing it to the prehab year we don't care about that but listen I've been hearing that same thing all year long and those voices that that that that are the most critical they've been the most critical the entire way that Bitcoin has been putting in lower highs just like 2019 now here's where it gets tricky right here's where it gets tricky at some

point it would make sense that Bitcoin breaks the lower high structure right it's not like I expect the lower high structure to hold forever and I imagine you don't either right you probably wouldn't be watching this video if you thought that that Bitcoin was was destined to fail okay so then the next question is is okay well if if we believe that Bitcoin will eventually break the lower high structure what do we need for that to actually occur and what did it take last cycle well there's two ways to think about it right and I

and this is what I said back in March right back in March I said look guys I know everyone wants to take this thing to the Moon I get it I sympathize with you however however there is this there's a couple of things that we have to keep in mind one of which is usdt dominance and and here's the the reality of of usdt dominance and I'm just going to PL you know say it plainly so that there's no ambiguity right should not be any ambiguity when I say this because it's just a fact it's

not what I think it's what has always happened now could the market deviate from what has happened absolutely but there is one Inconvenient Truth that we have to at least acknowledge and that is that every time that usdt dominance has hit this trend line Bitcoin subsequently dropped at least 50% before the actual bottom was in right at least 50% that again this is not of this is not a oh B thinks this this is this is what's happened and I don't control the chart right I don't control what the chart says I just simply enforce

it so in December of 2017 USD dominance for first you know we we we developed the trend line and then of course Bitcoin dropped 50% in June 2019 after it tagged the trend line it eventually dropped 50% even in February 20120 when it came close of 50% May 2021 we got the 50% drop from 64k down to 29 29k November 2021 that kicked off the bare market and you know I put out a tweet on March 14th at the top showing this trend line and we talked about it back then too right showing this trend

line and saying look guys as much as I know everyone is is calling for 100k by the having or 100K by the summer of 2024 or whatever normally what happens when usdt dominance hits this trend line is we get a correction right now it doesn't have to be 50% but you would at least expect a correction and we've gotten one now from a timebase perspective if you exclude the landing right if you say you know to hell with the landing let's assume there's no landing and and we just keep on moving right then from a

timebase perspective Bitcoin has already run its course right I mean it's been about six months right I mean it it took it was the you know the 29th week or so where Bitcoin broke the lower high structure and again I know there was a hard Landing immediately following that but let's just for a minute suppose that that didn't exist right let's just say you know what just ignore that right there and let's just say this is what happened right this is my chart I can do what I want right let's just ignore that Bitcoin broke

through the lower high structure after approximately 29 weeks so when you look at it here and you say all right well how long is it been it's been about 29 weeks right it's been about 29 weeks and so if you draw out the lower high structure You could argue well why can't this be the week where it breaks out like why not what's to keep it from breaking out it's been about 29 weeks it was about 29 weeks last time surely there's a possibility that it follows follows suit and you could be right right I

mean that thought process has to be on your radar like I I don't think it makes sense to ignore it absolutely not and this is why I have said look no one knows what's going to happen you know I I don't know exactly when bitcoin's going to break through the lower high structure but what I will say is this having a Bitcoin heavy crypto portfolio over the last few years until Bitcoin dominance hit 60% has served me well again did anyone predict this exact move no not even me I mean yes I called for a

lower high structure but it's not like I knew every step of the way you know exactly where it would go right of course it's it's playing out like 2019 so the process is playing out but it's not like I knew exactly the way in which it would play out so then I have to consider well could this be time right could it be time for Bitcoin to break out and I don't know the pessimistic side of me says no and if I'm being honest you guys know I I have tended to sort of lean on

the more cautious side of things it doesn't mean that I don't have a position it just means that you know I'm looking at some of the realities of the situation and I I just see that the altcoin market has been struggling and you know we can see the unemployment rate's been moving up um and so I can't ignore the the possibility that it doesn't break out now if you were to look at the ROI of Bitcoin after the low we talked about this in in a video a few days ago and we've been talking about

for a while right we've reached the point where if bitcoin's going to continue the cycle as it normally does then this is the time it should start moving up right and then it did right it started moving up as it always does around this point in the cycle but now it's starting to sell off a little bit right it's deviating from the last two cycles now I would argue that it's not yet too far gone to get back on track here but this is a notable change right I mean mean normally at this point from

the low bitcoin's just trending up but yet Bitcoin has sold off once again and I said previously that the only real thing that I think Bitcoin will sell off to there's two things right there geopolitical risk and the labor market those are the only really main two things the issue with geopolitical risk is it's impossible to predict that stuff right I can't no one can predict what's going to happen amongst the the geopolitical landscape especially if they can they're probably not going to be able to con you know convince you as to what's actually going

to happen in the market because of it um so let's just say it's more so dependent on the labor market now this week we've had some mixed you know mixed things right I mean on some in some regards ADP employment came in today better than expected job openings came in better than expected but highers right again let's just I don't know why I'm telling you this we gotta we got to take a look at it right I can't just tell you these things um you know job openings right they came in better than expected and

yeah it's still a downtrend but who knows maybe it'll it'll it'll bottom out soon if you look at highers that's been a little concerning it it's dropped some and I think the most concerning thing out of the data released so far this week is the quits rate I mean the quits rate is 1.9% the lowest has been since 2015 now I think a lot of people think that quits going down is good but I mean if you look at prior economic downturns quits go down dur during economic downturns not up because during downturns people don't

quit their job because they're too afraid that they won't be able to find a new job so if you don't think you can find a new job why would you go quit the job you have right so as policy gets tighter companies tighten the belt and as a result people don't quit as much in early 2022 people were quitting left and right because monetary policy was Lo and and you know why worry about keeping your 9 to5 if you can just go trade nfts right that's the issue and that's why you know sometimes during business

Cycles they let things get they let policy get too loose and the froest of things you know come to the surface right the froest of things rise up and then the fed and then we get you know we get a lot of inflation and everything because all that liquidity is looking for a home and the more liquidity just slushing around the riskier of assets it will go to in hopes of a of a higher yield and so now we're we're sort of seeing the opposite extreme where quits are getting pretty low right now and and

the FEDS only begin to cut rates right they've only started to cut rates so it's unclear how long it's going to take for this to bottom out I mean I mean even though the FED caught rates this could still take a while to really start to durably move back up okay so what I said previously is if there's something that's going to take Bitcoin off of its prior Market cycle Trends it would be the labor market now again it doesn't have to take it off forever but it could take it off for some time just

like it did last cycle so this is the week where I said it's a really important week because bitcoin's back above the bull market support band but depending on where the labor market data comes in it could drop it right back below right and and and right now it's too early to make that call um because I mean the 21 we EMA is is right above the current price right the 21 week EMA is like 61.2k we're at 61.1k it's always possible that Bitcoin still closes this week above the bull market support band and if

it does then the Integrity of that support band may continue to be held until the lower high structure is broken but I do want to talk about one concerning thing um a couple concerning things actually one of the things that you'll notice is that what happened last cycle after the FED cut rates is Bitcoin rallied for two weeks okay so the FED cut rates during this weekly candle right here and then Bitcoin rallied for two weeks and then about two months later two months later Bitcoin about eight weeks Bitcoin fell to the 100 we moving

average make sense now what's interesting is two weeks up and then 3 weeks down and then there was another green candle I want to talk you through one potential path here that I don't really think is the is that hard to imagine right if I had to pick any path I'd say it's at least a 50% likelihood happening doesn't have to happen but if Bitcoin is unable to break through the lower high structure let's think about this for a minute when did the FED cut rates over here you can see we had three green weeks

in a row but when did they actually cut rates they didn't cut it right there they cut it right here so after the FED cut rates Bitcoin rallied for two weeks right Bitcoin rallied for two weeks after the FED cut rates and now Bitcoin has been selling off again now is Bitcoin going to follow through just like it did over here because if it does it means that it could you know drop all the way back to 59k or something in the short term and we're going to get some more labor market data you know

before the week is over so if Bitcoin falls back to 59k then this scenario is at least somewhat valid now you know how there is another green candle that ended up occurring in like about a month later that green candle might be the second rate cut by the FED right I mean if you go look at at you know CME Group and and you look at at at sort of Market expectations the market is expecting the FED cut again in November November 7th which is only you know about a month away so I'm looking at

this and I'm saying like Okay if this is not the time like if it's not yet time for Bitcoin to break the lower high structure right if it's not yet time then what might happen instead okay and so I say look guys back over here after the First Rate cut Bitcoin rallied for two weeks everyone called for the moon and then it came back down and then you know the FED cut again back over here they cut again in in September I believe yeah they cut in July July I think and then I I believe

it was September and November something like that I I don't know exactly and then it was late September after a couple of rate cuts that Bitcoin fell to the 100 we moving average and so am I wrong to assume that there's a chance that could happen again I don't think so right I don't think it's wrong to assume that um it could happen right it could happen and and for me when I look at monetary policy I at least have to think like why wouldn't it happen one of the things that has always happened with

ethereum right if you go look at at at what ethereum has done historically is that after eth Bitcoin breaks down ethereum goes to its lower logarithmic aggression trend line right I mean there's three times in history when eth Bitcoin has broken below support here we're looking at ethusd but I'm saying the eth Bitcoin chart fell below support three times and the last two times that it did that eth dropped about 70% before bottoming right so and again the final drop in those 70% drops occurred in Q4 of that year this was Q4 of 2016 this

was Q4 of 19 so why can't this be Q4 of 2024 where eth finally goes to the lower logarithmic regression trend line now here's the thing in 2019 when eth went down here Bitcoin went down but in 2016 when eth went down there Bitcoin went up so there does exist a scenario where eth goes down while Bitcoin goes up but if I'm being honest I I think they're more highly correlated today than they were back then and I think it's more likely than not that if eth goes down here bitcoin's also dropping potentially back to

its yearly open okay so that is is you know I I I think the consideration to make here right because last cycle after the FED cut rates you know Bitcoin did get a couple of rallies but it still fell short and ultimately Bitcoin went to the 100 we moving average okay so it's an important consideration here right I mean like I don't and it's one of those things where like I don't really like talking about it a lot because you know it it basically just makes people upset um they'd prefer to hear sort of the

echo chamber of of you know up only um and it's not like I don't want to dance Too right I want to I want I want to be there for the party and surely if if Bitcoin does go up in Q4 um I'm sure anyone will look back at this video and say it was nonsense and and and that might be the case but I do at least want to put this out here because what I've seen happen basically since March is every single rally by Bitcoin is met with people basically screaming that people are

going to get left behind if they don't you know YOLO into alts and whatnot and instead what we've seen is we just see the market slowly March lower right you remember we were talking about usdt dominance earlier it's just been putting in higher lows right I mean recently it's been bouncing off its bull market support band in the same way that bitcoin's falling beneath its own usdt dominance seems to be holding it as support and you can't really get another durable rally by Bitcoin until usdt dominance breaks this trend line so you got to look

at that and wonder right I mean you know why does every why do everyone keep getting so excited every time us dominance hits this trend line right here this shorter term trend line and they just keep yoloing into the next lower high you know and basically dismissing any alternative view why because it's the having year and as far as they know in the having year Bitcoin only ever goes up now there is a reality to some degree they're not wrong right historically Bitcoin does go up in Q4 of the having year in fact if you

were to look at quarterly returns 2020 Q4 Bitcoin went up 166% 2016 Q4 Bitcoin went up 57% and 2012 it went up 9% but I also see a lot of people floating charts around that cut it off at 2013 and they'll say Bitcoin only ever goes up in October of election year it's because it went up in October of 2020 after um or that was an election year year it also went up in October of 2016 and people will make the case that Bitcoin always goes up if September in October if September is green right

the problem is that they are ignoring anything that happened before 2013 now I get it bitcoin's market cap was a lot smaller but I also don't get why exclude data just because you don't like it right in 2012 September was greened and then Bitcoin dropped almost 11% in October so it can happen right it's not like bitcoin's immune to dropping in October it is possible um and so I just want I want that to be on on on people's radar even if it doesn't play out right have it on your radar in case in case

the market throws throws you a curveball one kind of uncomfortable similarity between this still right because as much as I know everyone wants to jump on of the uh it's been 6 months it's time to break out right I get it and hope for the best right let's hope it happens plan for the worst right so you don't go you don't become you don't invest by just ignoring any possible downside risk you acknowledge it right information gives you power to to make better decisions right imagine in 2019 if you had just thrown all your money

in at 14k and then you sold it all down here because you got scared and yes there was this but then look what happened a couple you know a year or two later right so I'm not telling you this so that you can go panic cell or anything like that I'm just saying look guys have a plan in case this happens because this is what happened last cycle but The Uncanny the uncomfortable similarity between these two moves is that in 2019 this rally was about a 350% rally just like 2023 to 2024 about the same

about 350% but then Bitcoin dropped about 34% before the First Rate cut right I want to be clear in 2019 Bitcoin dropped right here 34% and then the FED cut rates and when the FED cut leading into that just before the FED cut Bitcoin started to rally and then by the end of the First Rate cut rally Bitcoin had rallied 35% right so 34 to 35% down before the First Rate cut and then 35% up as that rate cut arrived but then it resulted in a lower high now look at it over here what do

you notice right does anyone care to take a guess at how far Bitcoin has dropped so far coincidentally it dropped 33% before the First Rate cut and so far it has rallied about 35% maybe even a little bit a little bit more right if I get that Wick it's kind of hard to get it exactly but about 35 to 36% so still it hasn't deviated it from from that view right if if you only looked at monetary policy and you said all right how far did Bitcoin drop from the the sort of the the QT

the quantitative tightening High interest rate top when gold broke out how far did it drop before the First Rate cut in 2019 it dropped 34% in 2024 it dropped 33% and then you might say well how far did it rally as the First Rate cut arrived 35% in 2019 35 to 36% in 2024 so there's still a similarity there that I I feel like we cannot ignore just because we want to say well it's the having year and Bitcoin only goes up that is still something that we have to contend with okay and so the

way to sort of get past this is for Bitcoin to put in a lower uh put in a higher high which it has not yet done right and my my concern here is what if ethereum is telling us that there's something to be concerned about because ethereum is not playing ball now there's two theories behind this I think one of which is that some people think that ethereum is a has been and that it's going to go down and and there's going to be replacements for it that's Theory number one which I I wholeheartedly disagree

with I think what's going on is that ethereum is sniffing out some weakness in the market that other coins have not yet figured out right I I I think that's what's going on and I still think ethereum will stay number two by market cap for quite a while and I'm more so thinking that if ethereum if e drops to its lower logarithmic regression trend line if it drops all the way back down here how is Bitcoin not getting a drop similar right how is it not getting a drop that's similar to that and so for

me with eth I I I think that you will likely see it drop down here in Q4 and if it does it would make sense that Bitcoin would would get something similar even though it doesn't have to be the exact same thing now if Bitcoin is rejected up here again and it comes down again then you have to look at this trend line down here again and if you look at the bottom part of this trend line let's say by December the reason I say December is because in 2019 and 2016 ethusd bottomed in December

okay so if it takes until December then that would put the price of Bitcoin would get a price label it would put the price of Bitcoin right around $42,000 the reason why 42k is an interesting number is because if you go back and look at the 100 we moving average you can kind of see that you know by the November December time frame that's basically where the 100 we moving average is going to be right somewhere 42 to 45k now again if it just simply takes 8 weeks from that top or sorry not not from

that top but from the end of the First Rate cut rally if it takes 8 weeks or sorry from the First Rate cut that was 8 weeks last cycle if it takes 8 weeks from the First Rate cut that puts Bitcoin potentially coming back down here by the week by mid November which coincidentally is just after the election I'm not going to get into politics but it's just after the election so I wonder about that right and I I do think that there's going to be a landing right I I I think you could have

a soft Landing you could have a no Landing you could have a hard Landing so far this has just been a no Landing right I mean I don't think anyone can look at the S&P 500 and say oh yeah we had a soft Landing right where is the landing no there's no Landing right now it's a no Landing so far because inflation hasn't durably gone back to 2% um you know core pce I mean core core inflation is still pretty high and so I don't think you can say just yet that this plane has landed

but you could get a soft Landing right you could and I I I think that last cycle showed us what a soft Landing looked like it was a pullback to the 100 we moving average that was what the soft Landing looked like the hard Landing was breaking below that right but that was the soft Landing so for me when I look at this stuff you can also see the before that Bitcoin pulled back to the 100 we moving average you might say well 2016 was a great year for the stock market well if you look

closely at the stock market in 2016 it sold off and that's when Bitcoin hit its 100 we moving average so you got to make the comparison right I I I think you have to at least acknowledge that it's there and and what's interesting is you could get a situation too again where where Bitcoin breaks out of the lower high structure and then still comes back down to the 100 we moving average right I mean it that's what happened last cycle although I don't really think it's going to play out the exact same way I'm not

calling for a pandemic induced recession obviously but that is at least something to consider my base case for now I think um is you know I I I still think Bitcoin heavy makes more sense than alt heavy mainly because I do think there is a compelling case that Bitcoin Dominus is going to go higher it's hard for me to know for sure obviously if if if it's going to go higher on a Bitcoin drop or a Bitcoin rally recently it just seems to mainly go up on bitcoin drops which is why I'm sort of thinking

you know maybe we do get another drop into the 100 we moving average just like 2019 just like 2016 also years at each Bitcoin broke down and so if that's the case if that's the case then it means that Bitcoin dominance could go to 60% on a Bitcoin dump rather than a Bitcoin rally so the way I would play it for me is you know having Bitcoin in case the lower high structure is broken but also having plans to say you know what hell if this plays out like 2019 I want to make sure I

have something to buy if that happens um and I I think that's a relevant way to view the market you know there are some other things I've I've looked at a lot this year and i' I've struggled as to whether to make a video on them or not and I think for now I will uh I will continue to defer um you know some theories for for other times but I this is this is something that in the short term if this plays out the 100 week SME is is the line right that would be

where where Bitcoin at least can find some hopefully can find some support um there's you know the only other thing um yeah why don't why don't we leave it there why don't we leave it there for this video and say all right that's what I would look for in the short term if Bitcoin is unable to to continue its its higher low or if it's unable to continue it following the ROI from the low from the last two Market Cycles then the 100 we SMA is is where it makes sense to look next right if

it if it falls off and it looks like it might be right I mean frankly it looks like it starting to fall off of that of that of that view right because you know you can see pretty clearly right here it's starting to to not keep up and I said before it'll be the labor market more than likely that knocks it off the prior the prior track okay and we're getting labor market data this week and sure enough Bitcoin is is faltering a little bit so that's what I would look for going into Q4 of

2024 if Bitcoin cannot break the lower high structure because of the labor market weakness not I'm not saying recession right I'm just saying weakness in the labor market if it can't break through the lower high structure and the Bulls just get tired once again then I think your eyes have to be drawn to the 100 we moving average which is where Bitcoin fell in Q4 of 2024 or sorry Q4 2019 and q1 sorry q1 of of 2016 I think I said Q4 2016 earlier but it was q1 of 2016 but again it was it was

a having year right it was in fact a a having year and so uh those are I think the uh the views on the market that I want to express in this video there's other there's one other thing uh it's not what I was talking about earlier but if you look at at stable coins play ratio oscillator you know I was looking at this a few weeks ago I showed you guys this and I said look this might be a time for Bitcoin to bounce we're getting a rate cut normally you know last cycle when

we got a rate cut Bitcoin rallied for a couple weeks if you look at the stable coin Supply ratio oscillator the last you know the other two times where it bounced from that level January 2022 and then also happens to be October of 2019 right Bitcoin bounced um and then It ultimately eventually came a little bit lower right so you can see that some of the major lows occur when the s SRO the stable coin supp ratio oscillator gets all the way down here right we December 2018 March 2020 um you know June of 2021

um and even June of 2022 was a pretty good low as well it hasn't gotten down there but if Bitcoin does go to the low 40s by the end of the year there's a good chance you'll find the ssro all the way back down here basically completely reset from that entire entire move right and the other thing too to consider as far as as far as Bitcoin and and and everyone's proclamations for alt season you know Bitcoin dominance I've said this many times I think it's going to 60% and you might say well hold on

a second looser monetary policy is here you're right about that that's a fair assessment but I said previously last cycle Dominus didn't top until after the FED cut rates it was about five weeks in fact after the FED cut rates and also it didn't top until qwi arrived which still hasn't happened yet right don't take my word for it in case you're new just go look at total assets held by the Federal Reserve and see that it was when the FED went from QT to QE that Bitcoin dominance finally topped and that hasn't happened yet

so because it hasn't happened why should I assume that dominance is topped I don't assume that it's topped in fact if you look at all Bitcoin pairs I'm still adamant that they're going to keep moving down why well one reason to remember is that they do tend to follow net liquidity right net liquidity the problem for net liquidity right now is that a lot of central banks are still reducing the size of their balance sheet but furthermore it's a it's a function of the dollar it's a function of the dollar because you got to convert

the local currencies from those central banks into the dollar so if the dollar is bullish then it means the purchasing power of those other central banks goes down as it relates to the dollar so if the dollar is going up net liquidity is going down and you can see pretty clearly that all Bitcoin pairs continue to track net liquidity and net liquidity is starting to roll over here and now you can see all Bitcoin pairs are starting to show weakness again and I've talked about this for a while the dollar is starting to get a

big bounce here you know what I think I've said this before look at what happened in6 you know you guys like comparing Bitcoin to 2016 We compare the dollar to 2016 it was struggling in August and September and then the minute October arrived the dollar shot up 10% in fact right the dollar went up 10% 9% imagine if the dollar goes up 9% that would put it at at 109 109 to 110 if that happens net liquidity goes down if liquidity goes down what does that mean it means dominance is up and all Bitcoin pairs

are more than likely down so that's where I am on this stuff and I I continue to to to stay stuck in that in that place and as much as I want to join you guys on the allseason calls I can't right I still think dominance is going to go higher and I think everyone keeps front running it before it's actually time Bitcoin dominance has been massive uptrend for years and I think I think it's got it I think it's got one last leg in it at least at least one I think it'll top out

by the end of the year second week of January at the latest is my guess and why do I say it's going to top I think it's going to top because the economy starts to to slow down to again it doesn't have to be a recession but I I think there could be some signs some more obvious signs that that you know monetary policy the lags are starting to work and if that's the case then it means monetary policy got to go back the other way it's got to start to loosen up and if that's

the case it means Bitcoin dominance is likely going to top out because people will start to to you know start to take some more bets on on riskier assets as as policy loosens up but that's where we stand um there's you know there's other ideas that I I do want to talk about but for the sake of this video why don't we go ahead and wrap it up it's already been about 43 minutes or so uh which I I I do believe has gone on um long and up so those are my views if you

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