Trump 'unpredictability' to be downfall of Putin

and I think it's for Donald Trump now to say what what does that deal actually mean you know this is a man who's prided himself on being a dealmaker wrote a book on it you know ran a un a fake University that told people he could make them you know amazing masterful dealmakers it's on him to show that he can balance those two today dozens of European leaders including kiss starma are gathered in Budapest for a summit of What's called the European political community that is the European Union and others many others outside the EU

some wanting to join others like Britain we're just joining in kist is Keen to talk about tackling the flow of Asylum Seekers across the channel by as he puts it smashing the smuggling ganss or trying to they are all preoccupied though with What's Happening Here in the USA and what it means for security for Ukraine for European economies as and when Donald Trump follows through when his promise to hit all countries selling Goods into America with trade tariffs border charges 10% 20% 60% in the case of china it would mean global trade War a war

that economists believe no one can win and which hit consumers and economies right across the world let just bring you this a bit of breaking news as I speak the Deputy Prime Minister Angela Raina has just posted on X saying good to speak to us vice president elect JD Vance say UK Deputy Prime Minister andela Raina says we spoke about our plans for the future and how working together we build on the special relationship between our great countries and so nothing exceptional is there about a tweet like that from a senior minister in the new

government but just close your eyes for a moment and think about andela Raina in contact with j d Vance one of the most right wing of Donald Trump's uh Team seen as being more Maga more Trump out than Donald Trump himself now as I'm when those two meet I really hope I'm going to be there meanwhile tell me what you are thinking about all of this right now though let's catch up on that European political Summit in Budapest and talk and welcome uh to G Gabriel Gavin hello to you Gabriel welcome hello good evening good

good to be back with you right lovely now just have listen to this we had well we had uh words from Mark rut the the NATO Secretary General he was talking about what Donald Trump's win meant for Europe I think what it will mean for all of us is that you have a president who is experienced who is extremely clear about what he wants he will push us all to spend more on defense and he's right on this he was right he got his way we went to the 2% uh thanks to his doing large

to for a large part but he will also do forces do more in the future and when you look now at North Korea getting involved in Ukraine delivering the latest state-of-the-art getting delivered the latest state-ofthe-art missile technology from Russia the fact that China IR around North Korea and Russia are working together this is a threat not only to the European part of NATO but also to the United States Mainland that's um Ro there the new secretary general of of NATO speaking almost almost warmly of Donald Trump I've seen Mart R Gabriel described in the past

as being a trump Whisperer is that about right well I think there's a market for Trump Whisperers now just about every European politician you know in the UK Nigel farage has tried to position himself as someone who can talk to Donald Trump the reality is that as of January everybody's going to have to talk to Donald Trump and one thing that we know about the Republican uh candidate is that he tends to like people who are who are nice to him who flatter him who appeal to his instincts and he tends to disparage people who

have reservations about you know his opinions on Democracy his attitude towards you know disputing elections that he's lost uh but I think what's really interesting now is that unlike the first Trump term where we saw just widespread despair from European leaders people are saying now very much at the EPC Summit in Budapest and elsewhere it's time to get going it's time to act so on defense in particular we know that Trump has always been critical of those he sees as kind of not paying their fair share uh when it comes to defense um spending for

European security uh and it's it is you know most people here in Brussels where I am will acknowledge that it's absurd that countries like Belgium Spain Italy pay well below the 2% NATO defense spending Target while investing you know huge sums in their own ridiculous you know very European star bureaucracies they're just simply not doing their part for the security of the of the continent and I think they there's an awareness that if people come out and say well Donald Trump is a threat to the West people will say well why aren't you doing more

why are you being so dependent on America you know we're two and a half years into Russia's genocidal invasion of Ukraine why has Europe not stepped up right now what about what about Ukraine just a thought on that Gavin if I if I if I could Donald Trump wants a deal in Ukraine Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine European leaders though are divided well I think everybody wants a deal in Ukraine I think the ukrainians want a deal in Ukraine and I think the the question is what version of that deal is there I mean the ukrainians

want a version that respects their territorial Integrity that uh ensures that they aren't going to be the victim of more and more Russian aggression you know I think every European leader wants to see that happen uh I think what Vladimir Putin wants his total capitulation the installation of a kind of Russian backed proxy uh you know some some kind of word about demilitarization you know cap cap caps on Ukrainian forces so that if Russia were ever to try and Stage aggression they would have no opposition so I I think there's a there's a deep contention

here between what's uh what what Russia wants and what the rest of Europe and particularly the ukrainians want and I think it's Donald Trump now to say what what does that deal actually mean you know this is a man who's prided himself on being a dealmaker wrote a book on it you know ran a un a fake University that told people he could make them you know amazing masterful dealmakers it's on him to show that he can balance those two and I think what the ukrainians really don't want is a bad deal that leaves them

open to another round of Russian aggression in five or 10 years time after the Russians have recruited clearly there aren't tensions within Europe Hungary Victor Orban would be looking for something more to the liking of Putin other European leaders not not least kiss starma they would want a very different thing and meanwhile the German government is is collapsing so that that upset some of the balance but Gavin good to talk to you we'll talk more about that in in a short while now lastly let me get the thoughts of Sir Mark Lyle Grant who's a

former UK ambassador to the United Nations and former National Security adviser welcome back to the program Mark good evening John Mark so when we listen then welcome when we listen to Donald Trump talking about pulling away from the sort of full support for Ukraine we've seen in the past should Ukraine be panicking I think that Ukraine will be very concerned and clearly president zalinski is is concerned because of some of the rhetoric that Donald Trump has used uh during the last four years and and particularly during obviously the campaign um because when he talks about

ending this conflict settling it in 24 hours that could only be done on the basis of huge concessions by Ukraine to Russia um and what we haven't discussed a great deal is what President Putin would think of such an idea you know I don't think he's going to be just satisfied with freezing the status quo so he would probably demand more territorial concessions Plus neutrality guaranteed neutrality of Ukraine and that isn't something that either Ukraine or Europe would welcome for obvious reasons so yes there's a reason to be concerned but as we know Donald Trump

is very unpredictable and that unpredictability can be useful with uh adversaries it's obviously pretty hair raising for America's uh allies but nonetheless I don't think it's a given that Donald Trump as president would just sell out Ukraine yeah I Joe Biden is still the president until until January could he use that time to rush through an aid package while he's still in the White House is that possible I don't think there's any chance of getting a new Aid package through Congress no um that isn't realistic um however he hasn't delivered yet on the full 65

million billion dollar package that's already been agreed by Congress so yes he can accelerate those armed supplies I mean he could even lift the restrictions that he's got on uh long range missiles into Russian territory the attacks and the Storm Shadow which at the moment are blocked um from targeting Russian sites that would be possible um I'm not sure that he will want to do that his all his statements so far including just recently in public of being he's going to do the right thing he's going to have a peace ensure a peaceful um transition

but he certainly has the authority as president and commanderin-chief to actually up the ante in the next couple of months right now when we look at the the war in Ukraine when we look at NATO and the talk from Donald Trump of just pulling back from the level of support we we've got used to from from America for NATO when it comes to the uh to Western Europe and that that border with with Russia what we see Germany for example that government's are collapsing and there are different views on that around around Europe is there

a particular place there for British leadership well I think there's a place certainly for angl French leadership um the situation isn't as bad as when uh Donald Trump was president first time round then only five NATO countries met the 2% Target for uh spending on defense of GDP now it's something like 21 countries so a lot of uh European countries have stepped up their uh defense spending some very significantly particularly the Baltic states Poland and and those most threatened directly by by Russia so you know president Trump's already had some impact from his first time

uh as president no doubt he'll want to keep up the pressure but I don't see any particular sign that he's going to you know withdraw from uh NATO or resile from the Article 5 um commitment once he becomes president but as you say the big question mark is over Germany at the moment with German politics in such a mess the chance of them substantially increasing defense spending in the near future is very remote and that does give an opportunity for the British to work with the French um and indeed some German politicians are asking for

that to happen the risk there though is that President Ma will fall back on talking about uh European sovereignty European autonomy um which he's he's toyed with in the past which actually wouldn't be very helpful because it could accelerate the separation of North America from the European continent