Lance Breitstein: Verified 8-Figure Trader Gives Master Class, Scalping Strategies, Edge

you are a verified 8f figureure Trader with Trillium you trade from the 2-minute intraday chart many would hear that and say wo that's gambling I would say on the smallest time frames sometimes offers the most Edge and the longer the time frame you go out the less Edge you have what kind of size can you put on those opportunities you can make hundreds of thousands I mean there's there's going to be some headlines where you can make a million plus in my experience working with a lot of Traders I mean I would say I've probably

worked with I mean 200 50 plus Traders at this point I've not seen anyone that matches the edge of shorter time frame trading in this episode of The Way of the CPT we have Lance breitstein a verified eight figureure Trader who worked at Trillium one of the longest standing prop firms where he broke multiple all-time profit records he led their Chicago office for years and trained several classes of Traders he is known for transforming Traders from good to great and elevating those who are great to Elite he is currently an adviser for the prestigious SMB

capital and the founder of the impact competition Lance shares how he made Millions from the two-minute intraday chart how to find Edge and different markets and how Elite Traders are made without further Ado let's talk to Lance welcome to another podcast episode of The Way of the CPT the consistently profitable Trader we have a very very special guest today with us we have Lance bright Stein thanks for joining if you've been following the channel and the podcast you know I always start off with a quote from a book or a prolific author so today I'm

going to start off with a quote from Tim Grover who trained both Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant both Elite athletes so Tim grovery says uh interested people watch obsessed people change the world you can't be interested and obsessed interested is a hobby Kobe Bryant wasn't interested in winning championships he was obsessed and Obsession comes in the small details that nobody is concerned about the reason why I read this quote is because I really admire the like level of detail that you talked about when you discuss trading you know some of the achievements that I just

kind of want to read for the audience are is that you are a verified eight figureure Trader with trillion you uh ran their Chicago office for many years you know you saw many Traders coming in you train many Traders you um are an advisor from for SNB Capital One of the top prop firms to top proprietary uh firms in the country and you're onun a a small nonprofit right now my audience is it consists of traders who they are interested in getting funded it's the independent Trader um that's trying to make a living trying to

quit their job become a professional Trader so a lot of what you do in the field like when it comes to tweeting the YouTube videos that you put out it's a big help because you've exposed to us like what it's like to be a prop Trader what it's like to professionalize the trading businessman so the audience has a lot to learn from you I have a lot to learn from you and I'm sure you have a lot to share man thank you so much and first I I love that quote uh Tim grer he has

some amazing books out there and especially as we record this in in the land of Kobe you know rip I think it's a it's a really good good good concept and I think a lot of what makes people great and what makes those two guys Jordan and Kobe in particular so great is you need to not be focused on the outside world and what others are doing it's a lot of internal like that Obsession that Obsession on the process and on winning that's all pointed inwards and I think if you're trying to be truly great

and not everyone needs to do this but if you're trying to reach that prolific level of success when you're at that stage of the game you're not worried about this player or that player what they're doing you're not comparing yourself to others because you're trying to just elevate your own game and you're so focused on yourself and that that's the only way to do it and so recently we had just had our kind of elite top trading psychologist fly out here for a whole weekend together and that was one of the big things we spoke

about is how important it is to not play that comparison game and just to focus on yourself and improving your game and being better every day for you that that's so important so we'll talk a lot more about it but you've made a big mark on the like the YouTube space social media space but I don't think a lot of people know about your upbringing and what drives you so do you mind telling us a little bit about your background yeah sure so uh originally from New York City have a twin brother who now is

out of Miami and grew up I would say just to like a kind of typical bluecollar family and every bluecollar family had their money struggles and so while we kind of hopped around a little bit especially in around 2008 we were right outside New York City in New Jersey then you get the great financial crisis everything of course goes to especially anything that's tied to New York City so then you just see your parents struggle and you get you get driven and you say like okay like I don't want to worry about this stuff and

it was so interesting talking with with with Dr Katz the that trading psychologist is like the psychology of money and upbring is just such a fascinating topic yeah and you have people like like the author Morgan housel wrote wrote this book psychology of money which is just so many great stories and and so so many fascinating things because like the forces behind money and our upbring drive so much of Who We Are right like what do we value in our identity and a career as a person it's a way different person that gets into Social

Work versus the one that becomes a Trader and is so motivated and driven by these factors and I think asking about upbring is so important because I think not just in trading but in anything a lot of the people that really have kind of like that excessive drive like if you look at Elon Musk or all sorts of people like the Wall Street Journal even did a study and found like of the Mega Achievers so many of them had some crazy upbringing and that really motivated them to kind of push through the the suffering and

the disaster that reaching that level is kind of associated with whether it's like Oprah Winfrey to Elon or uh at a much much much much much scaler scale smaller scale myself yeah what were your parents' expectation of you were were like you expected to go to college or like be an entrepreneur thankfully my family especially my mom really did stress education they never really went to to you know may maybe just like the associates degree or whatever and it was like okay like you know you guys are going to go to school you're G to

get a good job and it was just a different expectation yeah and so what's what's super funny is I think I graduated high school maybe 30th out of like 180 or something so nothing so particularly impressive but then the second I got to college I think it was just that that that switch just flips on where it's like okay this is real this matters like if I need to get a good job out of here and especially right then like I said great financial crisis happened during my college career and it became very clear like

okay the second I get out of school like I better figure my out because yeah family doesn't have money I've got student loans uh things are not looking good out there and once that that switch flipped on like it was just go time and I I worked my ass off in school and so I ended up graduating I don't even know anymore but I think I was like I was maybe like third out of like 3,000 people or something something couple thousand people out of out of Indiana even as far as the process of applying

for jobs um I took that thing to a whole new level where I had my spreadsheets I did all my research I was networking and I remember even in the essentially the post kind of graduation time one of the professors that was running the Wall Street program kind of just took me aside and said like hey man like like like props to you I've never I've been running this program a really long time nobody nobody did the hustle you did and uh and what's so funny is as we get to the Trillium stage is Trillium

back then was paying 26 Grand a year wow and so so many people are like man like I had some offers from some of like the Bulge bracket Banks and stuff go go do sales and trading and so when people were like what dude like you're turning those jobs down you're taking like 26 Grand a year and for me it was just a no-brainer because I'm like no it's not about what I'm going to be making next year it's if I do well and if I this clicks like this is the pth to far greater

success and success on my terms because you know I'm not the type of person that wears a suit I don't like bureaucracy I don't like the yeah I just want to I just want to play the game and try to be the best at it I think some of us have seen the video of you introducing Mike Bella Fury right you're in a suit he's in a suit never be seen again that that year yeah I wonder myself what year that was that might have been around 2010 man that's pretty awesome so as you approach

your senior year you made a decision to go into to day trading instead of going to work for like a maybe a larger Bank how did you know that potential upside of that job yep so I think there were a couple important influences that that happened and we were even talking over over a little lunch before this and we both read the market wizard Wizard's book and so those books that whole series really inspired me and it got me so interested in just the beating the game and and like how do you through different strategies

different skill sets there were so many different ways to kind of beat the market and that that appeel of can can you actually do it can I do it and so when I learned about the different firms I knew I wasn't a Quant like good at math not Rainman I knew I wasn't a programmer I had some programming skills not you know Zuckerberg despite the resemblance that's what I always get it's either you want to know it's so funny obviously you knew I I was I was a little sick and uh one one of the

one of the nurses is like oh oh my God it's it's it's Mark Zuckerberg I'm like hey lady you you think if I if I was Mark Zuckerberg I'd be lying right I'd be lying here right now like slowly dying a lonely death you know it's either Zuckerberg or uh you know Channing Tatum or like a Matt Damon as can understand yeah and so I didn't have the programming skills and so what I really felt is is I just have the soft skills more qualitative stuff like I'm going to outwork I'm going to out compete

I'm going to be more resilient if if anyone out there can do it I can do it and it seemed like okay I'm not going to end up at the Chain Street capitals the de Shaws the citadels but there is a little space uh that that that likes hungry people and that happens to be just the discretionary intraday trading yeah and so I kind of compiled that whole list of firms and I knew where my skill sets aligned and and Trillium was one of them and the biggest question for me was I don't care about

the entry salary I don't care about the 26 G what is the probability of success right I understand it's a high failure rate not everyone's going to succeed how many people do succeed and of those that succeed what is that spectrum of success look like yeah and so with any of those bulge bracket Banks you can chart super easily obviously salaries bonuses have have changed over time but you knew year one year three year five year 10 year 15 that's what it all looks like down the road which was which was great for many people

that's incredible incredible living but it just wasn't my style it wasn't what I was interested in and so then I knew like look this you're going to eat for a couple years but if you happen to be one of the successful ones the sky is the limit and you can do so much better so much faster yeah and true to as advertised like at Trillium you have a bunch of guys in in the top 10 each year where these are young guys like late 20s early 30s that are making a million plus couple million bucks

a year um eventually you know every SE se's every decade you get you get a Kobe you you get a Jordan and so I just knew like wow there's no other path like this doing something that seems so cool to me you go on the trading floor and their New York trading floor is massive you know probably I don't know 80 82 100 guys there and you see just the rose well maybe less now you know post remote and all that but you see the rows of people and the energy everyone's super casual everyone's fooling

around it was like just a little frat house I'm like okay like this is this is this is where I can be in a fun atmosphere and I'm I'm like I'm going to have my fun but then I'm just going to outwork every single person here yeah I heard you say that for the first two years you weren't profitable when did you become obsessed I mean I was always I was always obsessed and driven like I just had such a chip on my shoulder back then where it's like I was a smart guy wasn't able

to get into any of the Ivy Leagues you know crushed it at Indiana wasn't able to get into like the Colman saxes or any of the really good places it was one of those things where it's it's like like I just kind of I thought highly of myself and had confidence in myself and I knew that I had potential and it was one of those things where it's like okay like you know if they're if they're not going to let me in the best place it's it's time to just you know break this whole thing

down and it was just like like look I don't care who else is in in this in this training class you know there were there were people from the IVs there were people from all over but it was just like I'm going to just going to outw work every single person and trust me man there was there was nobody my my work ethic was unbelievable back then even even in school like I was so I was I was working during school I was tutoring I was doing all this stuff and like the amount of hours

I put in and then when I was into in the hours I was reading the trading books I was I was trading the fake accounts I was learning about technical analysis and I was doing all this stuff just cuz like it was I just knew it was Game Time and um so so tell me what was your first like Breakthrough like okay I'm eating I'm failing I'm not making it and you also had one of the greatest like Traders as a trainer at the time this guy was super incredible dude and and so this guy

without proper mentorship I I really think you have you have the odds so stacked against you even with good mentorship the odds are stacked against you so I got lucky that this guy was nearly you know there were two of us so he was training us super super direct and I still struggle but the thing that started to click part of the issue was everything was just so fast and even though this guy was was he he developed all these strategies he was he was incredible but he didn't really have a super efficient process for

teaching it like a lot of the stuff I specialized in in the end like how to learn and how to speed up learning because when I ended up training so many people and running an office it was like it was The Meta learning of how do I get these guys better how do I improve as quick as possible and so a lot of that came came from my own and so it was just drinking from the fire hose and it was dude like come on man like this isn't that hard you know why why aren't

you able to do this why aren't you able to do that and you're like holy like my head's spinning you know because every every trade they're never identical but they rhyme and all the variables that are different you get so stuck inside your head and so finally what started to happen is I started to isolate what are the what I now call like the Easy Money trades super replicable ideally slower like some of the breaking new stuff can be super super fast let me find the trade that's slow let me find the trade that's simple

let me find the trade that's replicable and kind of just like the layup or the foul shot like what's what's the trade that I can really hone in on and just hit my little single and hit that little single then size it up a little bit and if I made if I made a 100 bucks before I want to make 120 the next time I want to make 150 the time after that and so I really really started to focus on those and so I was still losing money for a really long time because everything

else I was doing like I I almost Envision it imagine you're trying to build up 10 different strategies I was a one at each of these and so you might get a couple green shoots in some of these easy ones but then you're still losing money in the other places so you wouldn't really see the progress um at least in the p&l data but I knew like oh wow like I'm starting starting to at least get some of these trades and then what I also recognized and this was super important is yes I only made

a hundred bucks but that trainer that dude sitting next to me he might have made two grand or five grand in that and so I just would always say to myself even even when I was really struggling and things it was looking like I might not be able to do this I just knew like Lance like even if your playbook is is two little trades but if you just become the master those almost like the Bruce leeline the master of of one punch who's practiced it 10,000 times and it's like if I can just find

these couple little things and if that guy can make 5K in that tradeit even if you do the math like if I just have one of those a month I'm probably at least making a living if I ever get to that stage then if I even get two oh my God the thought of ever making 100 Grand doing this job that I loved was like I didn't ever want to make a ton of money I just wanted to not get fired at that point you know it was like because it's different than the retail side

uh on the retail side you're on your own timeline for me it was just like man this is the dream I see what the people around me are making like I saw what my boss was making I saw the other people on the group and there would be some days where your job would drop right right there would be days where the the dude next to me would make 100 Grand and you're like man that's more than my family makes in a whole year and what was the runway that you had like how much runway

like how much time did you have to become profitable so that's the good thing about places like Trillium or SM SMB is they give such a Long Leash and as long as you're really showing effort I mean I was I don't know how much money I was down I was probably maybe down and I mean it's so long ago and I don't have the data but I was probably down maybe like 40 50 60k 70 80k maybe even over about over like probably a peak truck or whatever over the first year or two and what's

what's nice is they really you know my heart was in it I wasn't doing anything neg negligent I was really trying the other thing that gave me a lot of comfort is the here's the reality even though things look scary and like sometimes HR would have a little talk with me like hey man you know how can we better support you you're not really making the progress you need and so what's interesting is I probably started in a class of 25 people and you would see people start to drop like flies and not because the

firm fired them but just because it was like super difficult and they were losing faith in themselves it's been a year they're not getting paid it's been a year and a half and for me it was like oh man like I need to get paid at some point like I've got student loans and and everything else but I'm you know until then like it's it's just go and what ended up happening is like things finally started to click and they gave me the time I needed and then I also knew at least in my head

I was I was smart right I recognized I'm not making any money but I understand things well enough that I'm making call outs I'm studying projects and like I contributing value to the group and like I talk about this concept about trading pods right and linking up with other Traders and people might think they don't have anything to add value to more experienced Traders but you're just not thinking hard enough right you can help with watch lists you can help perform studies you can help with back testing you can help with reading the news finding

different news sources there's so many different ways to help and so the thing that I did best is obviously I was trying to improve my own my own trading but what I also was doing is I was helping other people like spot the opportunities we were looking for I was doing different studies I was coming up with ideas and so guess what my salary back then was was 26 Grand a year all they're not going to fire me if over the course of the year I'm making the people around me so much more money from

call outs and everything else and so that's the thing where I'm like yes I'm feeling a little bit of pressure from up top but like I think I'm good good time wise because like they'd kind of be crazy I'm I'm helping these guys spot opportunities where they might make 20 grand 30 Grand you know 50 Grand whatever and and sure enough like especially come that year 2 Mark things things had really turned around in a big way yeah so when did your personal Playbook sort of come together and you start to like dig yourself out

of that 60k hole right well the funny part is and I think this is the right way to think about that people forget and this actually came up I was advising a Trader that actually got ripped in in zjl and he wasn't he wasn't sure like man is Trading still going to be right for me like is am I just worth worth getting out of the game and the thing is is most people think linearly you know years in and he's like oh man like am I still gonna if if I made 100k this year

then then lost 50 like you know it's going to take me half a year to get back and it's like no no no no no this stuff's not necessarily linear so did you have like a big monetary win like that really gave you that boost of confidence there was one trade that probably kept me from from staying off the ledge I mean I got lucky in two ways so first was I interviewed FD Shaw who then rejected me and thank you and uh then the other thing was shortly after that when I was still interviewing

at other places there was this exhaustion Gap set up in Tesla and that was a pattern where I had seen it a bunch of times this was something my my trainer really specialized in and loved and it was one of those things where it's like okay Lance like you can like any trade that you can kind of game plan for and be proactive about that's a major help and so even premarket I was like I knew the reality it's like Lance like you you might not have more than three more months four more months six

more months here if if you don't make something happen and it's much like in poker when your stack is getting small right like you say like again not allins not the right analogy there I wasn't doing any of that crazy stuff I wasn't doing anything negligent but it was like look you know this this my time is is winding down when I get something good I need to kind of make a stand for it and in this trade I ended up making like 10 grand that day or something yeah my normal good day was maybe

like a th000 or 2,000 and so then it was like wow like holy and it was that realization that like if I can do that I can do anything now like like this setup will occur again and if I just if I just stick around and buy my time and eventually get higher buying power higher lockout higher share size like I mean I think my boss made like a couple hundred grand that day and I was just recognizing like wow all I need in my life is is is just just just survive Lance and and

be there for some of this all right so most of the Traders listening um they want to become consistently profitable what is a consistently profitable Trader like from your perspective sure and I think certainly that doesn't mean you make money every day I don't think anyone needs to do that right nor nor will they ever and I don't think people even need certain profit targets or anything like that like the way I look at it is are you having green months and are you reaching a level of consistently green months not that every single one

is green like I I I think maybe I had a couple trading years with no red months but even even in my later years I was still always having the occasional red month due to some some outlier or something gone wrong or just like a slower period but I think the most important thing is are you consistent enough where you're able to capture the Easy Money trades in your playbook and then are you able to just cover whatever that base That Base need of of income you you need once you're in a position where you

can cover your needs then you're in the driver's seat and that's when you can really scale it when you're no longer like thinking oh my God if I don't hit this trade or if I mess up this trade I'm not going to be be able to pay my rent once you're past that stage and once you have some Acorn saved up that's when you can really say like okay it's it's it's go time but the foundation of Ever Getting There is consistency and so many people look at the Home Run Traders whether it's on Twitter

or whatever else and they don't realize the only reason why those Traders are able to swing big or even how they got there it all starts with the foundation of being able to consistently perform in the easy money trades like like if take take any Star basketball player if they couldn't hit the easy shots no way would they ever be on that Court to ever take that gamewinner yeah and so people only focus on the fadeaway jump shot at the buzzer but it's like no no no no no the only reason why they're ever on

that stage at all is because of their their Easy Money Trade game and just being able to do the consistent stuff prudently safely and and and put up those singles so all right for the audience I was born and raised in the Forex community so came through different like multi-level marketing companies and work my way through different academies so herb life Cutco yeah so I feel like um I have my ear to the streets I know what people are struggling with right and meeting you meeting Mike B Fury and some of the other like professional

prop Traders the idea of the Playbook and Edge is a conver ation that is missing in like the Forex space a lot of traders in the Forex Community when they think of consistency and they think of psychology they think of execution and risk management I want to read a tweet from you uh which really caught me off guard and it stuck with me and it impacted my career um so you said uh my number one fin twit observation most failing Traders wrongly attribute their struggle to issues of psychology and risk management reality is most have

zero Edge they are naively Fooled by Randomness into thinking their WIS are Edge this seduces them to troubleshoot the wrong problem now this is powerful it's a powerful uh statement can you talk to us about like what is the definition of edge yep so Edge at its core is essentially do you have positive expectancy when you take that trade or when you play that hand in poker or when you roll the dice in the long run will you make money doing that and so what so often happens right is if I were to give you

a coin for example and I said okay flip it most people we know a coin is 50/50 and it doesn't really matter how you flip it but if we were to play a little bit more complex of a game you might think let's say it's it's like stopped you got to press the buzzer to align the lights or something you might think oh wait the pattern is the second the light turns red I need to press it as quick as I can and sometimes that might work sometimes it won't so then you're like oh crap

like maybe this isn't it so the times that it does work you're going to say oh man I got that timing just right I did this right I was in the right headp space I was focused then the times where it doesn't work you're going to say like oh man like I I lost my focus like I was on tilt or like I got in my head and so so often what happens with with trading is I'll see people where anytime they have a good trade they attribute it to like oh you know skill whatever

else blah blah blah blah but then like they'll have some positive streaks which are ably going to happen like if you were to flip a coin 10 times imagine if every time you got heads you're like oh man like that was great that was great that was great I'm doing everything right I'm a really good coin flipper then you're like oh man next time I get Tails oh I was overconfident it's like what no it's just you're flipping a coin and so I think people get fooled by that a lot so often it's not like

you need to either have back tested data or you need to have some form of data to know that like oh wait my odds are better than than break even here and so a lot of people just aren to just don't understand that concept and it's so important because essentially if you're playing that coin flip game it doesn't matter you can flip that coin till you're blue in the face that's still going to be 50/50 if you're playing that slot machine you can figure out like Oh no I got to pull I got to pull

the lever this hard I got to do it from this type of angle you can try those games until you're blue in the face it's never going to work right but what you do need to say is okay if I go to the poker table now there's some not every hand right and this is important in trading not every ticker has Edge not every situation I can get pocket Jacks one hand and that can be a totally hand right depending what's on the board and the context and most hands that I'm dealt in poker are

going to be totally useless if I play most my hands I'm going to lose no matter how good of a poker player you are if you play every hand you're going to lose and it's the same in trading but what happens is there's very very specific hands not just specific hands but the hand the the hands need to be in very specific situations what are the other cards on the board how are the other players acting then I need to bet and fold and do everything appropriately and even when that happens it's still a probability

focused Game Y I can get I can play Aces I can bet properly I can do everything right and I can still lose and that's fine but that doesn't mean I didn't have positive expected value so the same analogy is like you need to find the right tickers and not just the right tickers but you need to find them on the right days you got to trade them in the right way then that's where like psychology and risk management can help refine all that and you still got to execute the best analogy I can give

people is if there's a system with Incredible Edge like if there's some slot machine where you win 99% of the time and the win loss ratio is is is 5X there's no way you're going to mess that up right it doesn't matter if you go on tilt it doesn't matter anything like you can you can tweak the odds in One Direction or the other your Edge is still so so great that overall you're going to be winning and so what I saw is my trainer his strategies had enormous Edge but he was far from perfect

psychologically with risk management and everything else he would definitely go on tilt he would definitely average into losers he would definitely sometimes get totally run over from from Trading without a stop he would make some major major mistakes but because he had so much Edge overall a lot of that stuff got overshadowed and so like I'm not saying psychology or risk management aren't important of course they are but above all else you need Edge first then with more experience those become more important because psychology and risk management are what allows you to keep on playing

that game with the edge and prevent you from taking situations that of Negative Edge Let's Take a small break as Lance mentioned in the podcast Edge is the foundation of successful trading this is why I like to tell you about trade Zella it is the best software to help refine your Edge and find your best setups it makes it easy to create a digital Playbook where you can detail entries exits and store visuals of each of your strategies the most powerful feature for me is that you can easily link your trades from different Brokers to

your playbook so you can evaluate the performance of each of your trade setups across accounts it automatically Aggregates your net p&l win rate R multiple and more for each setup in addition to automated journaling detailed reports and in-depth insights trade Zella features strategy back testing and trade replay I used to rely on five separate applications but trade Zella has unified all of the key trading functionalities into a single platform whether you're trading stocks Futures cfds options crypto or with prop firms trade Zella is designed for both the independent and the professional Trader visit Trad zella.com

and apply the coupon code Abdullah 10 to receive a 10% discount let's get back to the episode so how does a person develop or just back test their their strategy their ideas or hypothesis to find out if it has expected U positive I've done some really good videos on that there's there's a couple ways so back testing is one so I might have a simple strategy anytime there's a stock offering I'm going to figure out how far it goes down I'm going to figure out how far does it go down while holding a simple moving

average how far does it go down 1 hour later how far does it go down one day later how far does it go holding 2minute bar highs or something how far does it go using different types of stops what percent of time does it work what's my stop and I'm going to test all these different variables and I'm going to figure out like okay if if a stock has an offering oh wait no actually in certain times this doesn't work if if it's a bond offering this might not move if it's a really big company

uh this might not move if they just had drug data and everybody knows this biotech company needs to raise cash it's it's already expected they're going to do so so then you refine that and you say okay where the offerings really Crush companies maybe it's in the low float space Maybe is in the High Flyers that really need to raise money like uh like a rivan or or like a Neo when those are super hot or take like the Nica which had been ripping or recently the pH on the fun kind of that that that

little ticker and so then you say like you refine it even further not just offerings but I'm going to play these very specific ones and you realize that when you crunch that data the outcome gets even better then you're going to figure F out hey if I do this moving average as a stop my results are X and maybe it doesn't work but if I do this tighter stop maybe it works really well or if I hold it for one hour maybe it works even better or maybe if I anytime the stock goes above the

initial unaffected price if that's my if that's my stop where I always bail rather than holding one hour my data gets even better and so that's one way through back testing another way is to forward test and what you do essentially is you say I'm going to short every offering with one share and I'm going to do follow these rules and I'm going to see how that works so the benefit of of forward testing is you don't need historical data there's times where historical data Isn't So applicable take for example last year with the CPI

data points or I guess in 22 in 22 the CPI started moving the market big the Futures the market everything everything was moving multiple percents you can't go back and back test CPI data it hasn't moved the market for over 10 years right and and so that's where you need to immediately start either forward testing or you need to start using just a logical hypothesis and you might say oh wow the market started to worry about inflation and CPI coming in hot might show that we're in a lot of trouble they're going to slow the

economy they're going to raise interest rates and so even before the first CPI data point if you're paying a lot of attention you can hear this on CNBC you can talk to money managers figure out the theme of the market and so even with without a past historical data point or a forward one you can still have the education and the knowledge to make that bet so there's a lot of different ways another way is say you have a really good Mentor say your Mentor says if x happens I want you to do y and

this is the rules for how you do it you don't need to back test it you don't need how to forward test it you don't need to have a hypothesis you're just following someone you trust and so there's a lot of different methods to find Edge but doing some of those trumps all and most of all I would argue that like you need need to be in the stuff that's moving you need to be in the stuff that either has a lot of volume or breaking news or is doing something special because otherwise a lot

of the stuff is just noise out there so two questions um two important questions so first one is if you back test what's a like a a quality sample size sure so that's a good question and so I'd like to just think about a lot of this stuff in Practical terms let's say you back test something and it goes five for five how long do you want to wait do you want to wait for 100 data points no you don't want to wait if if we go five for five you might just put put that

trade on and you don't need to go big maybe you just start putting on one shair then 100 shares then a thousand shares after five data points but now let's say you go five data points and it goes it's only it only works two out of five times and of course keep in mind we need to also factor in the risk reward right because some trade might only work a quarter of the time but if if that pays out 10x that could be a super amazing trade so the other variable that I'm touching on is

it matters the variance of the trade right if you have a trade that wins 99% of the time but there might be major fat tail risk like say take for example a casino a Cino you're going to win 99% of the time but you might lose really big occasionally you need to be really really sure what what those odds are and what that math is so they might want a lot of data points because you're dealing with a lot of tales of the distribution and and it's a different type of variance so a lot there's

no perfect answer so you might go one for five but you might win that one time say say it's even just a little bit good you're not going to give up on that strategy right you're not going to say oh this is a total waste it only one one time let's say you go zero for five maybe you're like damn maybe this doesn't work at all but maybe you get 10 data points or 15 you probably don't need 500 data points like if you've gone zero for 499 the 500th data point offers less value right

yeah and so it really depends the strategy it really depends what you suspect the the risk to reward is going to be on stuff like that and what I would say is like once you start to get a feel for the data every data point incrementally provides a little bit less value generally So eventually you get a pretty good feel like okay like most strategies say after 50 data points like again most but there are exceptions yeah you probably say like okay like you know these won 30 out of 50 times that's a 60% win

rate uh when it did win it won 1.5 to one um that's that's like a pretty solid thing so I think after 50 data points I'm aware of this that's not I'm not the master in this I don't have 500 data points but I'm going to start to put that trade on yeah I'm not going to bet my whole account on On Any Given one of them but I'll I'll bet 100 bucks thousand bucks and start to build it up from there okay so now the second question is building upon that one because in the

FX space I hear a lot of people talk about how maybe they learn a strategy from a mentor and then it sto working right and I think a lot of people uh in this space their Strate are based on price action like support and resistance lines you know Flags pendants and things like that um supply and demand but when I learned like how um like S&B trades and how you trade there's certain underlying principles like Inplay um news Catalyst that sort of like they take different forms but the underlying principle of like what's moving or

driving the market is the same and and I believe if you understand those principles you're able to make adjustments like as you mentioned like CPI wasn't moving like for 10 years wasn't moving the market but then now in 2022 and how quick do you adapt how can you adapt if you don't understand the principles right so can you talk about that totally that's a great question and I think the really good Trader is is very attuned to both and recognizing that there's value in both so there is strategies I've done where fast forward to this

day I mean these patterns have been the same forever certain patterns like I mean my my trainer started in like 20012 2002 those patterns same as back then exist now I go back through my old charts and and I'm going through some of my old documents it is the same exact thing and you just say oh my God if I knew if I knew then like how I've refined myself over the that decade plus since it's just incredible and so I think like there's stuff that is totally structural right being the quickest to news is

a structural Edge having experience and um knowing how to react to certain things knowing certain patterns that repeat themselves knowing that people will eventually be off sides and people will get liquidated people will get margin called being able to like human psychology hasn't changed probably in in 500 years right since the beginning whenever Market started a tulip bubble or whatever else psychology has always been like that people have always gotten euphoric people have always panicked and so a lot of those patterns always represent themselves but then there's also the stuff that comes in and out

of of play or might just eventually structurally be arbed out and so you could take something like the covid cases in 2020 um every day people was following that that number to to know whether the market is going to sell off or whether it's going to be bit up and that's not going to last forever obviously that's still not in existence today but that's a short-term Edge and there's nothing wrong with that CPI last year that wasn't going to last forever people are eventually going to move on from inflation but that's fine that doesn't mean

you don't want to capture it so my point being with all this stuff is there's really two different types none's necessarily better than the other but the more important point that like if you understand the framework of of what drives price action and the perspective on this stuff some stuff is structural but a lot of the logic always exists so take CPI you're figuring out okay you're latching on to this is what the market cares about the theme is this I'd say almost every year or certainly even sometimes multiple times per year a market latches

onto different themes so last March we had the Silicon Valley Bank crisis so that was going to drive price action uh what's really been driving the q's nowadays the AI move and the semis so if you latch on to what these themes are you can start to really get ahead of the curve and and see some of those patterns so would you say that the market is mostly driven by like fundamental or sentimental themes rather than driven by strural by a lot of things all at once like that's the beauty of something so complex and

like it can happen in different phases right there's times where the Market's just totally driven by by emotions and Euphoria or Panic right think about in 2020 in March that wasn't necessarily some was fundamentally like some of course is fundamentals but then some stuff is just just pure panic liquidations right you had the GDX and gdxj ETF totally diverge by over 10% from their net asset value that's an ETF diverging from its nav so at times like that no that's just pure flows people are getting liquidated but then you have times when in a heavy

m&a Market a lot of stocks are going to be driven by those prospects of m&a and it's going to be super uh driven so it's always it's always a mix of of everything there's always players playing different games out there and I think like that's why I always laugh when people always talk about this this Anonymous they oh man like damn they rigged that one good or man like oh man like they they just squeezed the shorts or like whatever they they want to say and it's like it's like okay who is this they person

like let me tell you like I've met some really big Traders I've I've helped firms that are of the biggest Financial firms out there like for forget the little day trading side right like I have I have friends at firms that the biggest institutions there are and and I I know what they're doing and and everything else and it's like there if anything is true there is no they like in every single stock yeah there's someone that might have a lot of float locked up in a certain stock or whatever else but it's still a

ton of different players making their own independent decisions so there's going to be people that are taking that high a day stop it's no some crazy algo out to get specifically you there is no algo that says okay I studied this one retail Trader pattern now I'm just going to try and screw them each time it's like I think that's big uh conversation in the FX space like there's some collusion and some big algorithm that was designed coded like one algorithm that's out there just wiping people yeah like I always I I don't want to

talk you know but about Anonymous you know F and everyone else but it's like oh you know the the algo driving the market it's like dude I'm sorry man like there is no algo driving the market right every stock has different players and like it's it's it's it's so funny right because I've I've especially now on my personal account side I trade much larger size and there's been been times and and stuff where it's like someone's like oh my God like dude like like massive call volume or like massive you know put activity or like

oh man like do you see that order like someone you know someone someone just like took that whole thing I'm like and they're reading all into that and like oh man and I'm just like man that's just me you know it's like and there's no crazy collusion and like like there's people that are trading the technicals there's a there's hedge funds out there that are saying look no matter what this does by end of day I need I need you know $5 million of this there's people out there that are doing options flow and there's

people hedging that options flow and there's people buying based on the fundamentals there's people going with the trend against it all sorts of stuff like what might work for your strategy might tell you to buy when I'm selling on my strategy that doesn't mean you're wrong y on your time frame and your strategy you might win and I might win right so to think that there's like some crazy I'll go out there anything else like no it's just it's that's the beauty of markets it's this mix of all these opinions and and all these views

being expressed yeah so a follow-up question to that so if a Trader is purely technical if they aren't following what's happening with CPI do you think they're at a disadvantage like CPI or just different things that's that's going like fundamentally or sentimentally do are they at a disadvantage no I don't think they're at a disadvantage because it needs to just be whatever is right for you right so if you don't have that skill set take something like reading the tape this is always a big debate and what people the issue is people are too quick

to say just because they don't have any Edge or skill somewhere that doesn't mean it's impossible right and it's it's too quick to say that and so so many people say oh there's no Edge in that no no no you don't have Edge in that and perhaps there's no Edge but other people might 100% have Edge in that and so I think if you're doing what's right for you and and you're being true to your strength and your skill set I mean there's people people that have never interpreted a news headline in their life then

I know people that they could care less about the technicals I know people where it's like okay this this headline and there's certain strategies that I run so I was mostly a technical Trader like 95% of my trading was was a lot of heavy technicals but there would be certain headlines where I would know super high confidence how many percent that Stock's going to go like especially on m&a or like S&P ad deletes or like certain offerings or there I had just studied enough in the news where it's like okay like I've I've got a

really good idea like this headline is like a 10 to 12% headline this headline is like maybe like a 15 to 20 this is a 30% headline and so yes I might trade make a technical trade but then I might also have a huge chunk of shares just saying like look wherever this settles in I'm going to take none neither is wrong and then there's people that could just be purely based on sentiment at Traders for a cause this past year you had Jason Shapiro talking about you know he does like the whole commit of

Traders like who's long who's short so you could purely base it on flows but then guess what I I invest in with with one fundamental investor hedge fund dude he wouldn't know even what technical analysis is but he's got Edge you know he's got Edge and it's it's just you all can win in different ways yeah and I think people don't see that Nuance like just because it's not right for you doesn't mean it's right for others and especially on Twitter it's not the best vehicle for nuance there's a big discussion about whether someone should

specialize in one symbol one asset like maybe they're just trading Tesla or like a es or or inq only uh can you talk about the broken slot machine and like what perspective you lean towards and why I think like a really big thing just in life is anytime anyone says anything whether it's it's on Twitter or any anywhere else there's a disclaimer at the end of every single thing and and what you don't see is there's a bracket for me and bracket hey the keto diet is the best diet on earth oh my God like

like keto works so well for me hey I'm I'm a vegan I've never been healthier like being vegan is the best diet ever for me hey the broken slot machine is what offers the best Edge like this is where you find it for me and in my case for the people I mentor and I've I've worked with and so keep in mind like if if you're running different strategies like you don't necessarily need to find some of these things like if there are definitely strategies where it's stuff I'm not even aware of or I haven't

even thought about and that's fine but for the average day trader out there in general I truly believe that for most strategies a lot of these tickers can be noise unless you're kind of like the market maker the hftt a lot of this stuff tends to be noise and where I know me personally as a fact that things end up having massive Edge is when as I call it the broken slot machine something becomes super in play there's fresh pieces of news there's some type of catalyst there's order flow there's some crazy chart pattern some

stock is up seven days and like like think about when Mara was making that super euphoric run to 33 bucks or whatever like that's way more in play because you've got these massive ranges you've got so much uh momentum and you've got so much uh just just range and volatility and you've got the ETF approval news so you've got all these different strategies that that converge together to allow for a lot of different opportunities and I argue if you're spending those days sitting there the whole day training Sirus radio or something it's like like whatever

works for you of course but if you want to just talk about magnitude of edge out there like take something like that like uh the AMC offering or even like the fun offering or some of those or even any m&a headline if you can be super quick to get some of those prints the risk reward can be insane on some of that stuff right if you can be super quick to connect certain dots like oh my God cpis going to start to be in play if you short a bunch of spiders it doesn't move you're

getting out for a couple pennies no no harm done but if that works and you connected the dots first on that first time that you're making a couple percent you're making dollars you made a statement on Twitter I like to read it because the podcast is designed to like challenge us you know this isn't to just offend anyone but this is I thought this was a an amazing statement and something that you know we should think about in the FX space so you had a a tweet where you said is someone asked is Forex any

good to trade many ask about my view in my opinion FX is one of the most efficient markets in the way more so than Futures uh yes a few succeed but odds are very stacked against you only people making easy money from Forex craze are the furu marketers yep uh so and then you get I think you put out a 10K wager right for anybody to come forward saying that they made like 250k three years in a row like yeah any of those marketers in in the Futures and stuff yeah in the future space right

um with well I think it was like 250 traits yeah yeah and it might have even been like 50k p&l I don't remember but the bar wasn't that high whatever the terms were yeah yeah so can you talk about like when you say the market is efficient right can you explain this this tweet a little bit so and this is where a lot of people wait into this Arena and they don't even have the basic education to be in in the arena having the conversation so asking what does this mean by efficient is an important

for question so efficient is not a word I'm making up right this is a word that has true definition and meaning in the academic space of markets inefficient Market by definition means it cannot be beaten like as in it is a random walk the next move it makes is a 50-50 coin flip one to one risk reward it cannot be beaten and essentially the same way the casino slot machine works out pretty much 50/50 if anything 4951 against you because of uh the house wins in general and I would argue because of commissions and everything

else by definition again not my definition this is pure Academia and the whole conversation of what this is an efficient market cannot be beaten that is one that's perfectly efficient and now obviously things aren't perfectly efficient but I would argue most markets are very very efficient a lot of the time as we all know it is not easy to beat the market we can definitely agree so it's if it's not perfect it's defitely not easy we're somewhere in between then it's a question of how far and so there's certain markets that I would argue are

more efficient than others and what I would say is the bigger the players the more sophisticated the players the more liquid the market the less volatile the market is the more efficient the market overall is and if we look at say I mean some markets are also extremely quantitative for example um if I were to say I'm going going to give you $100 a year from now what's the value of that today you simply take the discount rate essentially time value of money like you know interest rates whatever else you discount it so there are

some things or if I were to say if I'm going to give you $5 right now what's the value of this coupon for that $5 bill it's it's $5 you know maybe discounted for any counterparty risk that I don't actually pay but like if we wanted to Super simplify it it would be $5 there would be no trading that nobody in theory would ever pay 501 for it nobody would ever pay $49.99 for it because in one second I'm literally giving you a $5 bill so if we just understand some of this logic there are

some things that have super quantiative like agreed upon prices now let's take the whole other side of the spectrum let's take something like Dogecoin or any of the crypto shitcoins what is the value of that coin worth I have no idea but in these these things are moving around a ton and so the way I look at it the all those things I said like more liquid more sophisticated player players like the the more news and price Discovery the better so take an IPO for example you want to know what in general is going to

move more than than serus radio each day an IPO that hasn't traded before because there's all this price Discovery so if I look at markets overall there's some markets that are much closer to the perfectly efficient then if we were to take the other side of Spectrum there's markets that are extremely inefficient like take take for example the market for certain pieces of art there's a lot of difference of opinion A lot of people might not recognize the value there might be there might be a lady out there that is selling for a $100 a

million dollar painting right that's totally foreseeable there is nobody out there selling like the S&P F like spy for $10 rather than what it's trading for it's a super efficient market right right and so what I argue with people is it's not that there isn't Edge in Futures it's not that there isn't Edge in Forex but for the average person it's just a more efficient game and you need to be wary of that yeah and I would argue with both Futures and Forex the reason why you see such a heavy marketing ecosystem to this online

is because there's no PDT rule so because there's no $25,000 minimum to actively be Trading that's why all those marketers move to that space you get so many more people to suck into that game and so what I would say is this is the same as walking into the casino you need to figure out what's some games you're not going to win they're too efficient like if I play slot machines I going to lose all day but then there's also some games where if I play it totally correctly I might have a chance of winning

yeah like poker and so my important point is know where your Market is on that spectrum and that doesn't mean it's impossible but look you're struggling I that youex it's impossible but you don't have stuff like stock offerings happening every single day you don't have stuff like m&a events you don't have stuff like like way less liquidation events way less inefficient order flows you don't have quad witching you don't have index rebalances and so a lot of this stuff leads to just a way higher opportunity set and a just spectrum of things like imagine playing

a slot machine versus waiting around to play pocket aces and I like that point and again this is to challenge us to think right because um there's a there's a company called Darwin X and um it's mainly targeting Forex Traders so you see people there that are making consistent money right um what I believe is and the people that I know including myself that have found Edge we're waiting on very specific times right when the market very very specific times and I'd even butt in right here to say say one of the key criteria in

my my furu Trader call out was not that nobody is out there making 150k 250k whatever I said but it was against the people running these rooms that are saying oh these magic levels every single day trading this every day posting just cherry-picking their winning trades every single day because like and don't get me wrong there are definitely firms and there's definitely people out there that do trade it every day but those people are probably playing with way different types of analysis like potentially there's definitely quantitative systems out there and all sorts of different things

or you're just simply like making markets or you're like hedging flow and all this but for this huge ecosystem to exist it really meant to me that like wow 99% of this has got to be and not that no furu or any of these marketers ever make that much money but like it was more so just like I want to I I want to see the proof yeah and and and look like I know Traders like you and I know like I know so many Futures traders that do really well trading Futures and like I

know people where they didn't do well at stocks and Futures was the right market for them but it's more so just the wakeup call of of of buyer beware and then there's just less Edge out there than you think yeah and that's why I wanted to bring up the point right because as I as I mentioned I was born and raised in the forest community so I've been in different communities and I see people showing up every day trying to trade the same thing every day so maybe they make money 3 months and then give

it back the next two months right because they're they're they're trading when it's not in play right so my challenge to the audience is really look at your playbook and really find out when you know your your system is in play if you're trading you know Forex pairs Commodities Futures any of the equity indices um and really focus on those high quality times and then maybe maybe um also expand your your your asset classes take that that system on the road and I would even argue a lot of the Concepts that I preach and again

anything I say is parenthesis for me and then for the audience of anything the question is is there truth to this is there some principle that I can learn from and then for the audience it's parenthesis how do you run with this for you for you and so what what I would say is these Concepts that make something in play you need to look at your market and say when do these moments appear when does this happen so if we were to even take fut there's times right like CPI where the Market's super in play

there's times when different instruments are super in play like n gas the last couple years has made some wild moves I myself after one of my tweets ended up trading n gas feutures the next day why because it was in play for me and what I was looking for and so the point is is like at the end of the day one thing that is true is you do need and this was another huge fallacy that people would make I like no matter what one of the huge signs of of Edge and opportunity is generally

you need volatility and and and price deviations and and ranges and moves and so people online would then make the point again again I I would argue they shouldn't be in this Arena at all they would say the beauty of Futures in Forex though is you don't need the big price moves because you can apply leverage and that is y because essentially if you don't have a lot of edge or if you have keep in mind if you have no Edge and you apply leverage what that means is in the long run you are gone

even faster yeah it it is a mathematical guarantee that if you have Negative Edge you will be gone in the long run if you double up your size if you use 2x leverage you'll be gone twice as as fast in on average 100% certainty that's just math like so that's why there's parts that's fact and that's definitely just math and that's indisputable now keep in mind if you have 6040 one to one like you so that's some Edge but then if you apply leverage to that and the variance okay like you applied leverage like to

make up for the lack of range and then you lose four five six seven however many times in a row you blow up again twice as fast if you're using 2x leverage and so that leverage argument is a total fallacy because you always want to find where the most edges now keep in mind if you're doing 6040 and applying leverage the way better thing is no no no where do I get the most Edge so wherever that is for you right again I would argue there's amazing opportunities and equities sometimes in Futures but generally when

stuff is in play yep the safe if you need to apply leverage anywhere it's better to do on the sure bet right or the better bet and so even that is is a fallacy that people had a dangerous dangerous dangerous one yeah so want to talk about um trading Styles there's a lot of arguments like in the space about swing trading being better than SC scalping or lower time frame trading what's your style the F that I I heard that you say you trade from the 2-minute intraday uh chart many would hear that and say

whoa that that's gambling trading from the lower time frame doesn't work so I think I think if I was like a little bit smarter like if if maybe I had like you know like maybe like a couple Aderall binges or something I can't mathematically prove this but I do think this is like a true principle I would say on the smallest time frame sometimes offers the most Edge and the longer the time frame you go out the less Edge you have but it comes at a tradeoff of increased scalability and so if we were to

take certain examples I've seen in the intraday space there's been order flow efficiencies so take for example that GDX example um where GDX broke from its nav because I was during Co I would argue that opportunity lasted probably like a day maybe two three days but a day at its peak during normal operations when Capital exists that shouldn't exist at all if you're trying to wait for a monthly situation or a weekly candle or whatever that opportunity is gone and there's even smaller opportunities like that like for example you know somebody needs to puke out

of some instrument you know they go low offer and you're like what the hell like this is this is inefficient and and it's gone and it's back to where it should be like you see kind of like the mini flash crashes in in Little Things each day and those are micro inefficiencies that are immediately getting absorbed out but guess what if if one ETF is trading minus 2% and the inverse ETF should be plus 2% then someone accidentally spikes it to plus 2.5 or something that immediately gets arbed out but that is essentially free money

right you can do a risk-free ARB and so my point with some of that stuff is like there's these micro things that have insane insane Edge and even with some of the breaking news like if you take the uh I don't know if you follow this stuff just just giving everything but if you take the the Spirit Airlines merger decision so that was in a pending merger agreement at a huge discount so the range of outcomes was if deal breaks this goes to I don't know call it six to eight bucks five to eight bucks

if deal goes through it's it's trading I don't know I don't remember what the price would have been but like way way way higher and it was a huge range and it's trading somewhere in the middle the deal ends up getting blocked if the quickest person in the world to that news there is nearly a 100% chance you're making money you're risking pennies to the from the unaffected price and you would have ended up making dollars the expected value on that trade is so off the charts in that micro time frame and so I would

argue there's a lot of analogies and comparisons and and examples I can come up with that but guess what that opportunity in some of these things is only lasting for a second because the second that's out you know it's gone right yeah and the more it moves the worse your expected value gets what kind of size can you put on those opportunities depends the opportunity so there's some where they just aren't scalable there's some where save depending how fast you are in the liquidity maybe you get 5,000 maybe you get 50,000 50k like in 50,000

shares okay give us some dollar amounts like uh for the audience to say okay from the two-minute time frame lower lower time frame some of these news headlines like I mean there's people out there making of course there's less liquid ones and more but there some headlines you can make hundreds of thousands I mean there's there's going to be some headlines where you can make a million plus I mean think about think about the money on how long does that trade last last could just be minutes so take even a basic CPI right you can

be going into the spiders you can be going into the q's you can be going into Tesla you can be going you can be Bitcoin was moving on those so think about how liquid those markets are right you can the Futures Market is you know infinitely liquid on some of those plays as well not infinitely but you know it's it's super liquid and so you can make some really really big money on that stuff so you're not you're not just going into the market on a two minute and it's all choppy and you're just going

in and trying to scal something out you're finding the biggest moves with the most Edge that that things you want to find the most value most volatile stuff and so now I would argue like if you start to move out your time frame like sometimes I'll do some swing trading where where you're using the daily bar time frames and now you can get a huge amount of liquidity right because your stop is this big and this the play you might be able to get around those prices for for half an hour an hour and so

there's hedge funds that might do that type of thing and they're accumulating way bigger positions and but I would argue some of that is at the tradeoff of of edge the variance increases like there's there's certain trades that I would argue have an easy 90% win rate some of those trades on the swing trading Styles like I find that to be again it doesn't mean they're not out there but in my experience working with a lot of Traders I mean I would say I've probably worked with I mean at least 200 250 plus Traders at

this point like I've not seen anyone that matches the edge of of shorter time frame trading so those the shorter time frame the methodology is higher win rate right a greater Edge lower like you're in and out but you have the higher win rate and greater Edge like in that specific time window y right it's not a 50% win rate type of strategy I mean some might be you've got you've got the full gamut I guess but I guess at the more extremes on some of the really best trades not in every trade but the

really really best trades I've not seen matched in higher time frames but again now think about it like because there's so much liquidity on the higher time frames like if it was it it would just be super super nuts like there's certain principles around this of why this stuff does and doesn't work and I'd argue that a lot of this stuff kind of of gets somewhat arbed out on the bigger the bigger time frames and for the bigger players here's here's like one of the final arguments I would make is like the the returns of

most day Traders like I mean there's so there's people out there like uh there's there's this guy I'm friends with Ed Barry he can take a 15K account and he can return 100% of that no problem no sweat off his back he's he's he's he's profitable every single day pretty much and I've known traders that are profitable even a Trillium there's people that are profitable nearly every single Day do you know a single hedge fund that's profitable nearly every day no there's there's trading firms out there like hfts that are doing that but they're on

the micro time frame right micro micro micro for for thousands millions of transactions a day now if there's people like Ed Barry that can double their account on these shorter time frames like that doesn't happen on the hedge fund space What hedge fund is doubling their account in a year man this is incredible if you're even beating the market most hedge funds like 90% of hedge funds that's kind of a made up that I don't know the real number to be to be real like they're not even beating market returns like the average Trillium Trader

if you're a good Trillium Trader that's laughable that's laughable you're not even you're not even blinking at at market returns right if if back if back in my Prime you gave me $100,000 account that that account is making money every single year and that account is making a lot of money every single year I'm not having any I never once I got once once I caught my stride how many down years did I have zero I barely had any down months incredible that's not true at the hedge fund scale that's not true at the bigger

time frames yeah so okay now you talk about exponential beted sizing want to move into that because that's another underserved or underd discussed you know topic right so can you just give us a little bit about like at what point can a Trader look to start like betting more on maybe like the a setup so like you mentioned a b and c setups the one key assumption is that this Trader has the ability to differentiate between the quality of their setups meaning as in as the poker analogy can this Trader tell which of their hands

are better than others can they say okay this is aces this is really really good this is Jack Jack it's worth playing but but not going to be the best ever or this is just not worth playing at all so obviously you want to play those hands way different than poker so there are some Traders out there where based on their skill set and their strategy it's all the same it's binary I'm either going to trade it or I'm not there's no variables that I can predict that give me more Edge than the other then

there's Traders like me out there with with certain Edge and strategies where it's like oh my God this trade might be so good where this is my Aces if you can differentiate then much like any poker player someone with Aces or somebody with a royal flush or a full house or four of a kind like they're not betting the same bet size they're going huge on that and again like trading's a little bit different you don't ever want to go all in or anything like that but what you do want to do is have that

that scale in the BET size because when your Edge and your expected value is way cranked up that can over overcompensate for so many mistakes or or different things that's one of the big lessons from my trainer that I learned so how do you recover like if let's say you take a loss on one of those big ones how do you recover from then since you've you've um increased the risk it sucks of course but I would argue one you shouldn't really start skewing it unless you're doing so prudently right you want to increase very

gradually the more experienced the trader the more can add skew onto their trades because they have more p&l cushion they have more experience they're more resilient to draw downs but what I would say is after that losing trade you go back to your Easy Money Playbook and that's the beauty of having that easy money Playbook and the traders that I've seen grow the fastest like there's this one dude at at S&B Capital who's kind of on the younger side but he's starting to really take off and the people were when things really click it's because

they have their Easy Money trades and those are their singles and when they get into trouble they're just back to base B hitting the singles but they then learn while building up that Playbook to differentiate what are my Aces so it's almost like this barbell approach I'm gonna I'm going to shoot my my my free throws and my and my layups all day I'm going to just just become the master of those easy layups then simultaneously I am going to study and master the most important shots like the the the big home run shots that

I need and so that approach gives you consistency and a cushion to then bet a little bit bigger that doesn't mean go nuts that doesn't mean ever ever go all in but if your normal trade is 100 that might mean early on you bet 150 if if if you're a more experienced guy instead of betting 5,000 that might mean 10 yeah and so it's it's doing so prudently and gradually and most people kind of probably overdo it but it's doing it safely and growing over time yeah gotcha okay I believe three Traders like if we

broke them down that are listening and I normally start with a sort of like beginner Trader but I'm going to start in the reverse this time so if there's a Trader that let's say they're good they're making money but they want to become great what should they focus on like they're consistently making money but they want to scale up and become a bigger Trader what would you recommend they focus on yep so I would always Focus just going one step ahead and so the number one easiest way to start to scale up I would say

is find those Easy Money trades and start to be a little bit bigger in them don't worry about the home runs right just build that bigger cushion and that bigger base and so again if you're normally making a th000 bucks or a 100 bucks in some of those trades it sounds small but let's say for the next couple weeks I'm going to add 10% meaning I'm going to try to make 110 you know instead of getting a th chairs I'm going to get 1,200 chairs or something and what people underestimate is that can compound so

quickly and you're not having the psychological issue of oh my God like because so often there's some people that can just flick flick the switch and turn the light on most people can't do that but and it's not easy because there's Psy psychology right so the key is to never change your size so much that it starts to affect your your psychology or your system if if you instead of betting a thousand if you bet 10,000 bucks and that means you're taking a tighter stop or using the wrong stop or you're not holding your position

you're changing your whole system it's too much now if if if you're if you're Sweating Bullets or if that $10,000 loss is going to affect your psychology in no way right but if you just simply go a th and you say hey look I do 20 Trad a day if this $1,000 bet is500 this goes wrong no skin off my back you want to make those gradual changes now keep in mind right if you start to increase your that your size that's a 50% increase but that doesn't seem so big if it's one of many

right but if you start to do that increase consistently over the course of a year right even every two weeks every month that adds up big by the end of the year you're betting 3K 4K 5K yeah so now the trader that's struggling maybe they're in it for a few years they're independent and they they've invested time and money to courses and blown accounts Etc what would be your advice for them to to uh focus on number one is make sure you're studying or Mentor or finding a mentor or someone with with real Edge don't

like if if you're sitting there for five years and my heart goes out to those people because I actually argue it's the majority of people if you've just spent three to 5 years sitting at the slot machine trying to read into how to pull the lever I'm sorry for you but it a waste of your time yeah the only lesson you learned is hey I need to play a different game and like but if you're if if if you're one of those people and you it's it's you're ready to make make the new leap make

sure you're you're sitting at the right game then ideally make sure you have a mentor if possible or something where you know like okay I know this isn't noise I know there's Edge and then just focus on just anything that is just replicable and easiest for you and your strengths and so that can be totally different for for different people I know one of our mutual friends he is a it's a very simple trade that he's refined and like we spoke about it's all about the nuances in our in in the style right and so

he found just the in in Futures a basic trade it's a pullback to vwap and he he goes long into that pullback but again it's not just that it's all the nuances that he's refined but that's his trade and so for him it works he trades Futures it works it's this very specific play and that's scalable and so for him he's going to keep refining it he's going to keep finding more of those and that's the best path and so I would say once you find something something that works the easiest thing is to find

more of them whether it's through software or through expanding your your your eyes out there with a pod or then it's then to just size those up it's finding more of your Easy Money Trade it's sizing up your Easy Money Trade that's always the best path okay so just wanted to give you some time to talk about some things that you have going on like your with your nonprofit so can you tell people like where they should find you like on Twitter and then also a little bit about your nonprofit sure yeah so I have

a nonprofit called the impact competition and what we do is we host these University competitions that challenge students to solve local social issues so we're probably at close to you know 10 schools a dozen schools or so around the country and we'll have students helping out the the Houston food bank or Habitat for Humanity or uh strides for peace in Chicago addressing gun violence and then the winner gets a cash prize they get to fund these uh their ideas and Implement them and make them real and it's just a beautiful thing that I really believe

in and it's been super valuable to be a part of and so people can check me out at impact competition. org or they can follow me on Twitter at the onance B and that's where my my real good content is always always being dropped for free yeah man this was an amazing podcast man I really appreciate you joining us man thank you so much I think I myself I learned a lot and I'm sure the the audience um got a lot of value out of this man my pleasure than you so much thank you for

all the great questions