Amazon CEO's LEAKED Conversation Reveals Stunning Truth About The Future Of Software Engineering

so software development Ai and the job market is rapidly evolving and in a recent leaked recording an Amazon Cloud Chief tells employees that most developers could stop coding as soon as AI takes over now I know what most of you guys are initially thinking you're probably thinking that this is an AI hype video where I'm saying that oh no all AI software Engineers are going to replace all traditional software engineer that's not what I'm saying I'm going to break down this article and show you the actual real grounded truth that's based on ual industrywide developments in the AI community that most people aren't paying attention to so this is an article from Business Insider I find it quite insightful because this is something that actually happened in a leaked conversation with the rate of current AI developments I'm not sure that this person is entirely wrong although I think there are a few nuances that maybe this article doesn't pay attention to so a summary of this article basically says that the Amazon web services CEO Matt garm shared thoughts on AI during an internal fireside chat in June and Business Insider obtained a recording of the meeting garmin's comments were a kind of advisory nudge rather than a dire warning to software Engineers hence the part where I'm stating that this isn't a kind of oh no all software Engineers are gone but like I said before AI is most certainly going to be changing the dynamic so let's take a look at this and see exactly what was said and what this truly does mean and any other further things for the industry so he says here the software Engineers may need to develop other skills as soon as artificial intelligence takes over many coding tasks if you aren't familiar with the current concept of how good AI is many people have been speculating that AI is going to replace many coding tasks due to its ability to perform many coding tasks in natural language with a remarkable level of efficiency now I do think that sometime in the future this is going to happen but there is a bit more detail that you do need to pay attention and it says that's according to Amazon web services CEO Matt Garman who shared his thoughts on the topic during an internal fireside chat held in June according to a recording of the meeting obtained by Business Insider now here's where he gives his prediction for the dates in terms of where he thinks this event will happen so he says that if you go 24 months from now which is literally just 2 years he says or some amount of time I can't exactly predict where it is but it is possible that most developers are not coding okay and I think what he says here is rather accurate considering how people interpret that comment okay so he says here is that coding is just kind of like that language where we talk to computers it's not necessarily the skill in and of itself the executive said he said that skill in and of itself is like how do I innovate how do I go build something that's interesting for my end users to use and I think this right here actually captures what most people miss about this when people say that okay software engineering is is going to potentially change considering the rate of tools and advancements in the AI space and how good these systems are getting at coding related tasks and when we look into the future we can kind of see that okay this is clearly going to change the industry now of course he does say here that 24 months from now things are going to look different and I think 24 months from now is not a bad estimate because 24 months from now is 2 years currently it's 2024 that would be 2026 and in 24 number from now in 2 years arguably there would have at least been potentially two more scale-ups of AI models now maybe there might not be two more scale-ups of course there are all of these things that we cannot truly predict but I do think 24 months from now the space might be in a completely different position now with that being said if we are in a position where 24 months from now these systems are absolutely amazing where you can simply build products through natural language prompts then it is possible that most developers aren't going to be coded during a time where llms are doing the majority of the heavy lifting so I think that that is an accurate statement for 24 months from now what he doesn't say and what people might take away from this is that developers are going to be useless and all of their jobs are going to be gone that's not what he's saying what he's saying is that most of them aren't going to be coding remember he said this is more of like an advisory nudge rather than a DI up warning now the thing here as well is that coding is essentially just a language that we actually talk to computers and how we get them to do exactly what we want and basically if we think about like far into the future of course it might not be 24 months from now it might be 4 years from now but the end goal is always how do we innovate and of course how do we actually build something that's interesting for my end users to use I think this is mainly the end goal for anyone who's using software the end goal is always how can I make this you know product better for my users and how can I innovate within this to make products that are actually good for my users so I think that that is a really important prediction now one of the things that was recently said on Twitter you know earlier last year was the fact that the hottest new programming language is English now this you know saying that the hottest new programming language is English is basically referring to the fact that English is what people use to talk to llms and if you've been talking to llms you'll know that when you talk to llms they can manage to get a lot of your understanding through natural language you know sometimes you do have to do a bit of extra prompting but as long as you understand English you're going to be working in a very easy environment with these program now the article continues to State some more things like this role will change and he says the role of the software developer will change garment said it just means that each of us has to get more in tune with what our customers need and what the actual end thing is that we're going to try and go build okay because that's going to be more and more of what work is opposed to as of sitting down and actually writing code and this is something that I do agree with once the AI is able to completely automate code let's say you know 10 years from now ai is just able to generate code for like you know an entire program with one single prompt which I think we're starting to see you know early Sparks of that with Claude 3. 5 I think of course the main thing you know the kind of place that you want to be in is one where you can actually think about what the end user experience is going to be like and what customers are actually going to want of course it's not going to be in you know doing the heavy through code if llms are going to be doing that the work is going to shift to be you know actually understanding what customers actually need and what the end thing is so I think what he's stating here is that you know this role is probably not going to go away but you know when you actually think about it the role is going to change and it's going to be really interesting to see how the role manages to change when a large portion of your work does get automated I think it's going to be interesting to see how individuals manage to adapt to that changing work environment and use any other skills in order to adapt to the workplace now I do think that this is going to be something that is quite true of course he says here that this is no dire warning of course the talk of AI changing and even eliminating jobs has intensified lately as companies layoff employees or stop hiring to shift resources towards AI development new AI tools should automatically generate code can help companies do more with the same number of Engineers or fewer of these pricey employees if you aren't familiar with the price of an you know software engineer these guys are paid big big bucks especially at Fan companies and demand uh you know higher salary than most traditional roles you can see here it says in garment's case he was sharing advice rather than issuing a dire warning that software developers will go extinct because of AI his tone is optimistic suggesting more creative opportunities for developers and he says that AWS Amazon web services was helping employees continue to upskill and learn about new technologies to increase their productivity with the help of a I now I think this is a stellar statement because there is a lot of fear right now the fact that AI can do a lot of things and it's advancing so rapidly the fact that this could eliminate jobs is certainly a fear amongst many which is why of course I do have my community but this is something that like I said before is a role that I think it's going to be enhanced by AI because the thing is that right now what we're seeing is we're seeing an influx of people that are getting into code because of these you know llms and these systems what we have now is a place where you know you can ask an llm to code something for you completely basic but if you don't understand how that code Works how you can change that code what to kind of prompt the llm you're still going to be pretty stuck in a rudimentary manner when you're trying to build something and I think that is also going to actually shortterm increase a demand for software Engineers because there are many people I know right now including myself who are building certain things you know experimenting with code that truly haven't really done that before so it's going to be kind of interesting to see how that Dynamic manages to shift and how companies manage to integrate software Engineers as rather more than you know coders now I guess you could say orchestrators of you know pieces of software as their main focus so you can see right here he says being a developer in 2025 may be different than what it was as a developer in 2020 and I think this is going to be you know rather true as your role's main focus is probably going to shift so that's a huge hint towards any aspiring software developer or someone who is a software developer the kinds of things that you going to be focusing now essentially he says here that this is no more undifferentiated heavy lifting see an Amazon web services spokesperson Aisha Johnson told Business Insider that garman's comments conveyed opportunities for developers to accomplish more than they do today with new AI tools he added that there was no indication he expected a decline in the role of develop like I said before you know these tools ideally we do want them to do the heavy lifting which is going to free up more time for tasks that do matter such as actually thinking about what the end user wants which means that overall these experiences are going to get better now one of the things I do also want to talk about was the fact that whilst the statement does come from the Amazon web services Cloud Chief you know him stating in a private chat it does seem quite bad like oh this company had this private chat and they were behind closed doors saying that you know AI could take over with coding he's not the only person that has said this okay you know stability AI that company the CEO Imad mustac also predicted in 20203 that there will be no human programmers in 5 years he based this off a prediction you know on a few factors including the GitHub data so 41% of all code on GitHub is currently AI generated and the fact that mustac believes that chat GPT will be available on all mobile phones without an now this is an AI overview so I haven't fact checked all this stuff but the point here is that he's not the only person that has made this prediction other people including nvidia's CEO has also iterated and spoken about this as well I want to say something and it's it's going to sound completely opposite of what people feel over the course of the last 10 years 15 years um almost everybody who sits on a stage like this would tell you it is vital that your children learn computer science um everybody should learn how to program and in fact it's almost exactly the opposite it is our job to create computer technology such that nobody has to program and that the programming language is human everybody in the world is now a programmer this is the miracle of artificial intelligence the countries the people that understand how to solve a domain problem in digital biology or in education of young people or in manufacturing or in farming those people who understand domain expertise now can utilize technology that is readily available to you you now have a computer that will do what you tell it to do it is vital that we upskill everyone and the upskilling process I I believe will be delightful surprising so yeah that's Nvidia CEO talking about the future and I think what he's stating here a lot of people are thinking okay do I now switch my career I think what he's more so talking about is like you know people who are just just starting and those who are extremely young getting into the space that by the time their career matures the area is going to be a lot different now I still think you're going to need to you know know the fundamentals behind the scenes and that kind of stuff but some people disagree now in this video what I wanted to do is I wanted to keep this video as balanced as possible because I know that there is a large amount of people out there who do believe that this is something that is completely overhyped and I did see a recent video that actually spoke about this in a lot of depth there were two videos that I did watch and I'm going to mention those now because I always try to you know understand where my biases May lie if I'm someone who has a channel in the AI space talking about the technology there are incentives for me to exaggerate AI claims however I'm not that kind of person I understand that there are nuances to things and that sometimes the technology might not be as great as it is Promised for example we did have the Devon Saga where you know the internet of bugs four months ago you know a few weeks after Devon was released he released this video a 25-minute investigation into the first AI software engineer now essentially he stated in this video that it was you know an upwork lie and that you know essentially Devon wasn't as good as they claimed now that's completely understandable a lot of the times with technology demos things aren't as good as the creators claim because they're trying to drum up hype for their product and it worked and the thing is is that while yes potentially Devin was a system that may have been a bit overhyped I think the underlying message is still quite true the tech in the space is actually not overhyped at all and the most surprising thing about this is that the four months since the Devon system was released you can see that this video was literally four months ago there have actually been numerous developments in the AI software engineering space that most people haven't paid attention Devon actually managed to grab the you know Collective consciousness of the software engineering space on social media but the other more incremental updates the ones that actually matter and are slowly moving upwards people haven't been paying attention that's why I put here that things move pretty quickly especially in the AI space and I'm going to show you guys what I'm talking about so open AI decided to release the software engineering bench they introduced this on the 13th of August 2024 which is just around 10 days ago now depending on when I release this video so they said we're releasing a human validated subset of the swe bench that more reliably evaluates AI model's ability to solve real world software issues so they basically said that look there are issues on this bench okay and you guys can take a look at this here it says that look all right one of the most popular evaluation Suites for software engineering is the swe bench a benchmark for evaluating large language models abilities to solve real world software issues sought from GitHub The Benchmark involves giving agents a code repository and issue description and challenging them now listen to this to generate a patch that resolved the problem they described by the issue now coding agents have made impressive progress on the swe bench with top scoring agents scoring 20% on the swe bench and 43% on the swe bench light according to that leaderboard as of August the 5th but here's the kicker okay they said that their testing identified some swe bench tasks which may be hard or impossible okay to solve so basically what they're saying here is that look we made a benchmark and when we looked at the one that everyone's currently benchmarking their systems on that Benchmark had some issues that were way too hard or completely impossible to solve leading the swe bench to systematically underestimate the model's autonomous software engineering capabilities I'm going to say that one more time open I came out and said that that our testing indicates that some swe bench talks are impossible to solve leading to swe bench systematically underestimating the the model's autonomous software engineering capability which basically means that look we made benchmarks and we realized that your ones were pretty impossible to solve and you guys aren't truly realizing how capable these models truly are which is an issue because if you've been paying attention to the space what you'll know is that there have been major major updates for example with fine-tuning you can see that the actual Improvement since Devon since 4 months ago this has completely doubled guys and the software engineering you know bench you can see right here that since the Devon area which was around 133% you can see that that was around here during that time in 4 months performance has doubled okay we've had numerous competitors come out of the works we've had Amazon's Q developer agent get 38. 8% we've got the factory code Drid that are you know aiming to build you know like an army of autonomous software agents and then we of course recently had cosign Genie which is now the state-of-the-art model at 43.

8% on that same Benchmark that Devon was on that 17% Benchmark so for those you know who are saying that you know this one doesn't work and this you know is awful yada y y I would love to see what people have to say about the actual improvements because many people are now dismissing these claims and many people are now stating that look this thing isn't good at all this isn't actually any kind of reliable Improvement but if we've just been paying attention to the rate of improvement here we can see that this is absolutely incredible now I've made this table in Google and you can see right here that the improvements here are rather Stark we can see that literally at the start of 2024 we were at 7% you can literally just see right here 7% and now we are 8 months through 2024 and we at 43. 8% and remember Devon was only four months ago you can see and in the four months you know we've had you know 38 38 37 36 26 you know things have been moving rather rather quickly so it's important to know that now I did some you know not testing but you know I spoke to Claude I wanted to ask them how quickly are we going to be moving towards 90% because the reason I said 90% is because to go from like 40% to 90% is rather easy and that is going to be an acceleratory period but to get from 90% to like 99% is a lot harder like making gains when you're already you know 90% of the way there it becomes you know exponentially harder to make those additional gains so it says here that there is a significant jump from the older models below 10% to the newer ones about 20% the Improvement seems to be accelerating with more recent models showing larger gains this is for many factors including the fact that you know all these com companies are now coming out of stealth showing you know everyone what they've been building and it says here that given these observations we can make a rough estimate the improvement from the best 2023 model which is retrievable augmented generation and Claw 3 Opus to the best 2024 model is about a 36. 8% % increase in roughly 8 months this suggests an average Improvement rate of about 4.

6 percentage points per month to get from 43. 8% to 90% we need an additional 46. 2 percentage points at the current rate of improvement it would have take approximately just 10 months to reach 90% however technological progress often follows an S curve where improvements accelerate for a while then slow down as we approach theoretical limits and we're likely in the acceleration phase now considering this and the rapid re progress I would estimate that reaching 90% could be possible with 6 to 12 months from the latest data in the date placing the prediction sometime between February and August 2025 so with Claude 3.

5 doing the analysis here you can see that if we actually look at the data and we you know extrapolate out further and say okay you know we know what's going to happen Claude is basically predicting that look within 10 months you know it's going to be 90% of all swe tasks that are quite possible and then you know Amazon Cloud Chief is basically saying that look you know in the 24 months to come things are going to be rather different it doesn't seem that crazy when you actually break it down number by number and this is some important things that you do have to pay attention to especially if you're in this space now one of the things that most people do actually forget and I do think that this prediction isn't overestimated this isn't like a hype video where I'm like oh my God you know AGI and you know 10 months or two months this is more of like you know trying to keep it factual and grounded literally based on the you know benchmarks that we've recently seen but we've seen like 4. 6 percentage Points each month of course some months are going to be larger some months are going to be not as good but I think if you know if we go at the same rate it's going to be 10 months we can you know say that okay even if it's not 10 months even if we extrapolate and add another year onto that there's going to be huge amounts of significant developments now like I said before there's always one thing that most people forget and this is where I think there's going to be you know huge jumps made in AIS coding capabilities you know in the areas of these Frontier you know models doing stuff that just most people didn't even take into account okay and that's why I said the recent videos I'm talking about you know such as this one right here you know it's saying that debunking the AI software engineer yada yada yada this is terrible always take into account the actual benchmarks of other AI systems because that is also important and I did watch this video from n code. where he's basically explaining that look hype is a marketing tool and basically stating that hype is completely out of control and that this is you know something that could potentially not get there just yet but I do think that what this video doesn't pay attention to is of course some of the stuff and of course some of the more recent developments and some of the other papers where they actually talk about other coding stuff which I'm going to get into in a minute most powerful marketing tool that's ever existed let's talk Devon AI for a second I made a video talking about it right after the announcement I thought the founders were super smart but also that I'm not worried about Devon because these people are clearly fighting an uphill battle I don't know a lot about it the benchmarks say that this is more effective at software engineering tasks than the other llms I wonder if that's because it just puts a few things together like it has its own capabilities to like do research like go on Google brows stack Overflow and run code and execute code and they just put those pieces together more more cohesively than GPT obviously in a short amount of time they didn't create their own complex llm I'm pretty sure they're using one of the existing llms I didn't closely examine the evidence or anything like that it seemed kind of obvious to me a few months later people are realizing they were fooled by the hype Devon is extremely overrated at least for now if you don't believe me maybe you'll believe this guy he basically proved that at this point Devon AI is more useless than a freshman CS student who's one week into their first programming course so what I wanted to talk about you know after you know viewing ni's video it was definitely an insightful video and I do think that it grounds you know a lot more you know reality in terms of what's actually happening because I think what we do need to pay attention to is the reality of things you know a lot of things have blown out in that video he talks about Tesla's been selling for self driving for years you know companies make claims all the time you've got FTX you've got theranos this is something that usually does happen with tech companies but most people aren't paying attention to what these Frontier companies are saying okay for example um this is a paper that didn't get a lot of you know information slash like data you know people just basically didn't speak about this paper but essentially this is the alpha code 2 technical report okay and it talks about how alpha code was the first AI system to perform at the level of the median competitor in competitive programming a difficult reasoning tasks involving Advanced maths logic and computer science and this paper introduces Alpha code 2 a new and enhanced system with massively improved performance powered by Gemini Alpha code 2 relies on the combination of powerful LMS and a bespoke searching and reranking reckoners when evaluated on the same platform as the original Alpha code we found that Alpha code 2 solved 1.