Bitcoin Hits $100K: Is the Crypto Market About to Burst?

crypto went crazy in 2024 we made it to 100K we won the war on crypto and the US elected a crypto bro as president crypto's future has never looked so bright in fact it's almost too bright see all these bullish Vibes have got us wondering if crypto isn't sleepwalking its way into a great big bubble I know bubbles are terrifying but they're even worse if you don't notice them until they burst my name is guy and before anything crazy happens let's buckle up and investigate first a recap last year BTC more than doubled in price

and broke six figures for the first time spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January and accumulated more than $100 billion dollar worth of BTC and Counting micro strategy more than doubled its BTC Holdings and was even added to the NASDAQ Index Washington 's war on crypto is over and Gary Gensler is packing his bags and headed for the door at the SEC coinbase and others spent eye-watering sums of money to get Pro crypto politicians elected across the us and it worked the new president-elect is a defi founder and his secretary of Commerce has a 5% stake

in tether after the election the total crypto market cap increased by more than a trillion dollar the largest monthly gain on record meanwhile Russia is scaling up its use of Bitcoin for international trade and governments the world over are discussing strategic Bitcoin reserves oh and xrp made all the haters look really stupid after trading sideways into Oblivion around the 50 Cent Mark for almost 2 years it ripped 5x in a little over a month and overtook usdt as the third largest crypto by market cap so as we begin 2025 it's unbelievable how bullish The Vibes

are right now and that's exactly why we have to ask if one day we won't look back on this moment as the mother of all top signals worse still Skeptics might see all of our dials screaming bullish and come away thinking that the crypto Market is turning into a giant bubble now I'm not here to spread bare propaganda but this is the kind of Channel where it's okay to talk about different ideas so let's ask that question is crypto in a bubble well first we'll need to agree on what a bubble is this isn't as

easy as it might sound because bubbliness is a subjective quality the basic idea is straightforward a bubble is a period of speculative buying that pushes asset prices far above their intrinsic or fair value as determined by fundamental analysis of metrics like demand earning revenue or growth potential now I know what you're thinking demand earning revenue or growth potential guy I'm up to my neck in meme coins what are you trying to tell me well you've got a point the metrics that can be used to determine fair value and deduce bubbliness in the stock market don't

always apply to crypto sure crypto has Supply and hopefully demand but earnings revenue and growth potential are not always present even in the stock market bubble spotting is hardly an exact science our most sophisticated tools lead to diagnoses expressed in wooly terms you'll hear things like AI a little frothy around the edges but not quite bubbly if it's like this for stocks then you'd better believe that Crypt bubble spotting is more art than science still whatever the assets involved may be all market bubbles share certain characteristics prices are stretched to extremes before collapsing violently and

this catastrophic end is the essence of a bubble if prices came down in an orderly fashion it would be more like a balloon deflating and Bubbles famously can't do that they're doomed from the start so a bubble is a disaster in the making classic bubbles are mostly huge disasters like the 1920 stock market bubble that preceded the Wall Street Crash the 1980s asset bubble that preceded Japan's lost decade and the subprime mortgage bubble in the US before the great financial crisis crisis of 2008 other bubbles were major events for the people Industries and markets concerned

albeit not quite so world changing think the do com bubble of the late '90s or the Tulip Mania of the 1630s but big or small all of these events ended badly and unsurprisingly people are reluctant to describe any Market they've invested money in as a bubble and crypto is a good example crypto's volatility and cyclical nature make it look Bubbly by default every few years prices inflate to extraordinary highs before collapsing violently but scroll through crypto Twitter and you'll have a hard time seeing the B- word it's always bull market this and bare Market that

so we might ask is every crypto bull market a bubble is a bare Market proof that there was a bubble and it burst some people seem to think so for example there's a Wikipedia page titled crypto currency bubble that lists every crypto bull market going back to 2011 but if you equate btc's first ever Bull and bare markets with say the Ico craze of 2017 or with the huge boom and bust of 2021 and 2022 then the term bubble becomes pretty meaningless as we established bigger Market phenomena are more easily identifiable as bubbles considering that

the crypto Market grows bigger every cycle and we are currently in the thick of a bull Market we could say that crypto looks more bubbly today than it ever has before nothing has started to break yet but since we want to spot bubbles before they burst let's inspect the current market conditions with a critical eye hello hello it's me guys cousin Barry I'm very very sorry to be interrupting this no doubt fascinating video but I want to tell you about the coin Bureau deals page so listen up and listen well all right this is the

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so you're welcome thank you very much go and have a look tto or I have to come and have a word all right now if you saw our analysis of a possible bubble in the US Stock Market last summer you might remember the bubble ometer invented by Ray Delio the founder of Bridgewater Associates the world's largest hedge fund he calls it a bubble gauge but well each to their own right now I'm not here to tell you that Delio is the world champion bubble spotter but this gaau of his is the most comprehensive approach to

measuring bubbliness that we know of it combines a whole load of different metrics and not all of them can be applied to crypto still we can get a decent read on the crypto Market by combining the most important ones like high prices bullish sentiment High leverage and new buyers entering the market so we'll start with prices and sentiment many of the biggest altcoins have similar looking charts they ran hard in March and November 2024 but have yet to break their previous all-time highs many of which which was set at the top of the 2021 Bull

Run if you're relying on one of these altcoins to tell you if prices are at Bubble Level highs you'll probably think of course not however we have to remember that the number of cryptos competing for buyers this time around is many many times greater than in 2021 when these cryptos saw crazy gains this is why Market saturation became a Hot Topic last year we should also consider that many Market participants prefer bidding on brand new cryptos because they don't have any long-term bag holders waiting to dump on new buyers All Things Considered then we believe

that many altcoins won't surpass their previous all-time highs this cycle as such last Cycle's hot altcoins shouldn't be used to measure bubbliness instead we should look at the BTC chart because it ultimately dictates what happens to the rest of the crypto Market as we know in late 2024 BTC broke $100,000 for the first time this is a very significant psychological and symbolic level but Market participants are divided over how to interpret it there are those who think that 100K is only the beginning of a monster Bull Run that will see BTC 2X or more in

2025 the basis for this view is the fundamental analysis I mentioned at the start of this video I won't retread the whole Spiel here but from our point of view there's no shortage of reasons to maintain a bullish bias the pro crypto US Government Wall Street coming on side geopolitical instability and inflation undermining Fiat currencies the list goes on and on bubbles imply prices that are detached from fundamentals and so as long as the fundamental outlook for crypto looks as bullish as it does now then bulls have grounds to argue that BTC can climb significantly

higher without turning into a bubble we can point to Nidia as an example of a price reaching dizzying highs and staying there without causing too much Panic about a bubble because price growth is supposedly justified by very strong fundamentals more cautious Market participants will argue that the bullish forecast for crypto was priced in after the US elections in November in other words yes the outlook for crypto is great everyone knows it and this is why BTC broke 100K for this Camp 100K marks the beginning of the end of the bull market Market their cycle top

predictions for 2025 typically range from 100,000 to $160,000 at most if you saw our 2025 BTC price prediction video you'll know that we take the same view as long as price doesn't durably break Above This range we may not have to worry about a bubble however if BTC does durably break past 160k and especially 200k or more that would suggest price has escaped fundamentals and the market is drunk on bullish sentiment causing a bubble and speaking of sentiment this is another one of our bubble indicators there's a line in the sand when sentiment flips from

bullish and into bubble territory and it's written in four words this time is different yes this is the sentiment that permeates every bubble a conviction that the present Market boom is unlike any that came before it it's an exuberant belief in ever higher prices and a wanten disregard for the downside risk it's what persuades people to keep buying all the way up to the Pico top and most of the way back down too unfortunately this sounds like a good description of the present moment the problem is that as we've discussed fundamental analysis tells us that

macro conditions have never been so favorable for crypto because you know the incoming president of the United States is a crypt bro and so on so so in other words no but this really might be different well let me put it like this every time that people thought this time might be different it wasn't because they were stupid it was because some bullish analysis convinced them to suspend their disbelief take the.com bubble for example the internet was going to change everything our species was at the precipice of the information age and nothing would ever be

the same again people had good reason to believe this was true and history proved them correct in the long run but crucially this correct prediction of our online future did not mean that stupid website ideas could keep printing money Forever at the moment this time is different is personified by Michael sailor and micro strategy they more than doubled their BTC Holdings in 2024 of course we love to see that it's just that Levering up and buying more the higher the price goes isn't usually a winning formula why not wait until the bottom of the next

bare market and then buy way more well perhaps they think price is going to run away from them and they'll never get another opportunity to buy BTC sub 100K again and maybe they're right but this is Peak this time is different incidentally the popularity and addition of mstr to the NASDAQ stock index is another bubbly Omen MST is essentially a leveraged bet on BTC and it 11x over the course of 2024 continued outperformance would suggest a thirst for leverage characteristic of Bubbles as well as a common belief in the this time is different thesis now

a related phenomenon in Market sentiment is price predictions that keep getting higher goalposts that keep getting further away are a common feature of Bubbles and this is something we are starting to see in our 2025 BTC price prediction video we found that the highest 2025 price predictions from prominent analysts and institutions topped out at around 200k case in point Bernstein predicted that BTC will touch 200k in 2025 reasoning that Bitcoin is entering a quote new institutional era since then a raft of higher targets have made headlines the Investment Bank HC Wright recently told investors that

it had raised its prediction from $145,000 to $225,000 the crypto mining firm blockware Solutions now says that 225k is its base case for 2025 with a bull case reaching as high as 400k Robert kosaki prominent BTC Advocate and author of Rich Dad Poor Dad says BTC will reach 350k in 2025 and perryan boring the founder and CEO of the digital chamber America's largest blockchain advocacy group told Fox News that BTC will reach 8 800k in 2025 in our book targets running this high and continuing to climb are a sign of irrational exuberance so big bubble

energy now the last metric we want to highlight is the flood of New Market participants that is typically associated with bubbles this can be tricky to pin down though people often say that when your taxi driver aunt cooworker or some other person who's not involved in crypto starts talking about it you may be close to the top or indeed inside a bubble after BTC at 100K made headlines around the world some of you will have had these experiences but they're anecdotal and we don't have a data set on this at the moment meanwhile another sign

of New Market participants could be high trading volume but not necessarily it could be regular participants going in heavy so to speak interestingly if we look at crypto quants aggregated data from all major exchanges BTC USD spot trading volume has yet to come anywhere near its previous highs in late 2022 to early 2023 these highs represent Mass capitulation I.E the crypto winter but most crypto trading volume comes from derivatives trading so let's look at that too during the race to 100K in Q4 2024 neither spot nor derivatives volumes reach the high seen in the rally

of q1 2024 by far the the highest volume seen last year was the liquidation event on the 5th of August but even this candle is far smaller than the previous highs seen in late 2022 to early 2023 it's remarkable how far exchange volumes have fallen and how low they've remained since these highs So based on historical volume data the market looks like a ghost town very strange and the exact opposite of a bubble now the last indicator of New Market part participants that will use is this helpful collection of social interest metrics shared by the

block the first one that jumps out at us is the views of bitcoin's Wikipedia article over the last year predictably views spiked to a yearly high on the 5th of December the day BTC broke 100K for the first time if we exclude that day we can see that views increased in Q4 but didn't surpass the levels seen in q1 of 2024 similarly tweets mentioned Bitcoin spiked in November 2024 but didn't reach the highs of q1 actually after this brief spike in November they nose dived pretty badly views on crypto related YouTube channels like this one

also picked up in Q4 overall they have durably surpassed the levels seen in q1 but remain far below 2022 levels so then what's our verdict bubble or no bubble well it's a mixed picture sentiment seems very bubbly there is a feeling of extreme optimism about 2025 and the future of crypto under the second Trump Administration and it feels close to this time is different territory micro strategy in particular gives us bubble Vibes both for the sentiment and leverage that it represents crypto prices though are a mixed bag the altcoin market overall does not look very

bubbly then again cryptos like fcoin reaching nine figure valuations are Peak bubble but of course BTC is what really matters to us BTC at 100K doesn't scream we're just getting started but at the same time this Milestone alone doesn't indicate a bubble if BTC durably breaks 160k this year then we will ask again if crypto prices are in a bubble anything above 200k in 2025 and obviously we'll be celebrating but a bit nervously as far as we can tell newcomers are not rushing into the crypto Market Market at anything like the rate they did during

the last cycle spot and derivatives trading volume is suspiciously low and social media engagement with crypto is down huge now these social interest metrics may sound less weighty than say the sentiment and price in the actual crypto Market however if historically low trading volume and social interest can be interpreted as historically low levels of newcomers to the crypto market then this is the exact opposite of a bu if BTC can reach 100k with trading volume and social interest multiples lower than they were in the last cycle it implies we have an enormous amount of room

to run maybe we really are going much much higher or maybe it just means that 2021 was a massive bubble and this time around we're back to normal bull market conditions much to think about anyway the coin Bureau verdict is no bubble yes there are bubbly vibes from all the bullish catalysts headlines and forecasts of late but prices volume and social interest aren't high enough for us to be concerned yet disaster averted back to longing your Longs just kidding this isn't financial advice and all right folks now we'd like to hear from you so do

you think we missed any telltale signs of a bubble are we on the brink of bursting or is the Bull Run only just getting started let us know your hottest takes in the comments down below check out our video on the top 10 crypto bull market mistakes to ensure you don't make any of them this time around like subscribe and I'll see you again soon [Music]