Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about Bitcoin and we're going to be providing an update to the bull market support band if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at intothe crypto. com let's go ahead and jump in so we did just have another weekly close uh Bitcoin closed the week at right around $98,000 uh the bullmark SP pan is obviously gone a little bit higher it's now about 79k up to around 84k now what's interesting is this move that we've seen uh throughout December is still really similar to what we saw last December right and then as we got into early January of 2024 we what we H we saw happen was we saw Bitcoin sort of Spike up into early January then get a selloff in late January and then get another move up in February right so that's basically what happened last year and the reason I bring that up is because 2024 very closely mimicked 2023 we we talked about that a lot right if you go look at year-to dat Roi of Bitcoin in 2023 and you compare it to 2024 they almost of a carbon copy of each other right um and so because of that right it makes sense to to still make those comparisons until they're sort of proven to no longer have value right and one of the things you'll notice is that you know even this move is is really similar right you see this move here how it started in October really it started like in September kind of the same thing that happened the year before right you got a move in September it slowly moved up and then it got a a more explosive rally into December everyone was expecting it to go even higher in December and then it just kind of like stalls out for a little bit right this is exactly what happened last year in fact if you look at the extension from the 20we moving average right if you look at the log the natural log of the price over the 20we moving average you can see that it was the almost the exact same thing right I mean look at the extension here above the 20we moving average basically the same as what happened this you know these past few weeks you could also visualize it with the uh short-term bubble risk like just the extension from the 20we moving average Bitcoin has essentially had sort of these moves above the 20we assist May where it goes above it for a while and then it eventually returns it sort of checks in with the bullmark sport band and it actually in Q3 of 20123 and in Q3 of 2024 you can see that's where Bitcoin went below its bull market support ban this is is actually a little Sim similar to what happened in 2016 2017 although Bitcoin didn't really go below the bullmark SP in back then right it it mostly stayed above it but the extension from the 20we moving average was pretty similar right where you basically just had sort of these periods where it would go above it but it wouldn't really go that far above it and it didn't really accelerate beyond that until April of the post having year right April of 2017 but every other Peak was a lot more tempered as you can see now what's interesting too is if you look at the weekly RSI of Bitcoin you can kind of see a a pattern that that might be something that we we check back in with later on this year I'm not going to mention it a whole lot uh because I don't really talk about the RSI that much but um this might be something we check in with by Q3 of 2025 because if you look here you can see that in Q3 of 2023 the weekly RSI found support at 45 and then in Q3 of 2024 it found support at a weekly RSI of 45 and so I wonder if we will find the weekly RSI back down there again by Q3 of 2025 now obviously a lot can happen between now and then right it's not like the weekly RSI just has to immediately drop down it could go up and do something like that and then drop down right it could do all sorts of things but the point is that you know you might find it down there once again in like half a year right which is is a long time from now right it's a long time from now and you can see that in the last two year in the last two years the weekly RSI topped out last year it topped in March the year before that it topped in April what's interesting is that the first top right the first top was a little bit lower than the second one but when it came back down when it had this drop in early or late it had this drop in December into early January it actually bounced right at essentially the current levels that's actually where it where it bounced at um but that bounced of course didn't occur until later on in in January so you know you you could still see a a repeat of last year where it I mean and even if it were to repeat last year you could still see a new all-time high um but you know the the real move didn't come until a little bit later on and so I do wonder if you'll see that happen again right where it's it maybe it still Trends up into the labor market stuff but um it still doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be a sustained move higher until you have another couple more um few more weeks to consolidate I mean again it's just it just seems like a really similar move right it seems like a really similar move so look I mean if there is a drop if there if you sort of see it do what it did last year where it you know spikes up and then spikes down what you would want to see is Bitcoin find support at the bull Mark support band or even better yet find support before it reaches it you can see the last year it found support before it even reached the bullmark support ban right right cuz the bullmark support band was all the way up at uh or was at the higher point was about 37. 4k and Bitcoin just went to 38.

5k so it came to within $1,000 of it but it didn't actually tag it um and so you could see something like that happen again so that's why I just provide you the updates on the bullmark SP and like where it is and again right now it's ranging from like 79k all the way up to almost 84k um and if you look here right you can kind of see these support levels that bitcoin's been bouncing off of this Wick would be you know a a potentially interesting Wick later on but it might not become that interesting for another you know month or something um but I I did think that it was important s of recognize that there are a lot of similarities between what's happening this year and what's happening uh what happened last year you could also argue too that even these highs look kind of similar but if you look at it this way it's almost a little bit more accelerated right where like what if we've already seen that move up right and then what if this was the move down right and then you get sort of a move up and then maybe some consolidation so all sorts of ways to look at it what would cause Bitcoin to really go up or down I mean think a lot of what's happening is just you know it sort of makes these moves we talk about it like every month right it makes the move higher sort of in anticipation of all the labor Market releases and then based on the labor market release then it decides what it's going to do so for instance if you were to Overlay uh the the unemployment rate onto the chart when you know as long as the unemployment rate is barely moving higher Bitcoin goes up right and even throughout this entire period but once the unemployment rate started to regularly move higher right where it was going up a tenth every labor market release that's when Bitcoin was like okay let's consolidate for a little while and see what's up with this if this continues at this pace like if the unemployment rate had continued like that then Bitcoin likely would have continued going down but we had a few good data points and remember the market doesn't need a reason to go up it needs a reason to go down so as long as the labor market isn't giving giving Bitcoin a reason to go down then it uses that opportunity to go up right and it basically you know as the unemployment rate came back down that's when Bitcoin started to go back up and then it broke through resistance here as the unemployment rate was all the way back down here now if the unemployment rate comes in at 4. 1 or 4. 2% that's probably a good thing for Bitcoin it's probably a good thing if it comes in at 43 or 44 that could have the market questioning right like imagine if it comes in at 43 that could be a perfect excuse to kind of repeat what happened last year where the market just consolidates for another month and then waits for another labor market release in February to then see you know is it going to stop or will it continue to go higher so that will be interesting to track so I would say you know if the unemployment rate is is 4.

1 4. 2 Bitcoin probably won't care so much about it if it's 4. 3 or higher then Bitcoin might care a little bit more about it just because you know as we saw over here if the unemployment rate is going up Bitcoin would struggle for a little while and I know a lot of people don't like to look at this stuff and they think it's not important but listen guys I mean this stuff is you know you can pretty clearly see these correlations on the chart right as long as it's a slow move up Bitcoin doesn't care if it's a quicker move up Bitcoin did start to care and I you know if you guys roll back the clock to March 24 we said back then it was likely a midcycle top for about 6 to n months and that's exactly what it was it took about 7 to 8 months to put on a new all-time high we said six to nine months but a lot of the people that discount this stuff you know were certainly not calling for for that move but if you track the labor market you could understand why that move was going to happen so that's why it'll make sense to sort of view the labor market release this week with scrutiny to see you know where is it and um try to decipher what exactly that means for Bitcoin now the bull market support band is always sort of the the the first line of defense for the Bulls right so in a bull market you know this is always going to be sort of that main level of defense and and you can see that Bitcoin is bounced off of it a number of times there have been a few time a couple times this cycle where it fell below the bull market SP bound Q3 2023 Q3 2024 if you do get a larger drop by Bitcoin at a time when it doesn't normally drop right let's say it would make sense for it to the the the next sort of drop potentially below the bullmark wor me to be Q3 2025 right if we're just going to repeat the same pattern over and over and over again if however it comes sooner let's say you get a a a a higher labor market read than anyone's expecting right what if it comes in at at 45 or like 4.

5% then I would argue that it still doesn't necessarily mean the part's over but you you might go back and retest this sort of these this lower high structure that Bitcoin was putting in it's always possible that you retest that and then get a bounce back up right but I I don't think it needs to go that low um but you can kind of see like a lot of there there's this thing called timebase capitulation right time based capitulation is probably just as important as price based capitulation so you could argue that this here was time time based capitulation where the people that were going to sell sold and they had weeks to do so and that's what kept the market from going anywhere but the price didn't really go that far down it just Consolidated for a couple of months this was the same thing except you know longer and more drawn out it was time based it wasn't I mean obviously price went down a little bit but in the grand scheme of things price didn't really drop a lot right in fact if you look at if you look at like two Monon candles and you just look at a line chart for last year you would be hard pressed to figure out to show somewhere you know to show to show someone when did the price of Bitcoin actually dropped last year right so I think you you you always have to keep it in perspective right you have to keep it in perspective so you know I I think that the bull market support band will be the first line of defense if we have to go back down there and and test that level either later this month or February right that would be sort of the first line of defense where you would expect some type of reaction and that's exactly the reaction we got last year in late January and even even when we we hit it later on right you know you the very first time A lot of times when you hit the 20we SMA after bouncing off of it for a long time you get a kneejerk bounced off of it just like you got here in April 2024 right just like you got here in March 2023 right so the first drop to it usually there's a bounce off of it okay I'm just saying that if it if it were to break doesn't necessarily mean the party has to be over you still might just go back down test this give a reason for the FED to to to start printing or something and then keep going so just a couple of different ways to look at the market the other thing to remember too is one of the reasons why you get these consolidation periods is there's been this you know this idea of diminishing extension from the 20we moving average and as you can see every single time we reach this point I think a lot of people sort of discount this trend line um but every single time we pull it up it ends up marking a a local top for at least a little while you know um you can see we pulled it up here in March of 2024 we also were talking about this in late November early December when we were doing our our 100K watch party live streams and you can see like you know it's not that Bitcoin can't go up it's just that the extension from the 20we moving average has diminished from one cycle to another and the reason is because it just takes exponentially more volume to move the market cap so it makes sense that it can't go as far beyond the 20we moving average as it historically has done so that's essentially what I wanted to cover uh today for the bullmark repend video and I do appreciate you guys uh tuning in and and I I do apologize that I haven't really been posting as much as many videos recently or as many of you guys you know have commented they're just shorts uh but you know the holidays holiday season and is harder to get those videos out so we'll try to get back to the you know sort of more videos and and a little bit more in depth as we get further into 20125 I do want to appreciate you guys for being here and for you know joining us along for this uh Market cycle and and again maybe one more thing to check in on we'll do obviously we'll do more videos on it but if you look at at the market cycle Roi of Bitcoin there sort of the ROI from the bottom bitcoin's actually right where it normally is around this time and actually if you look at at this cycle compared to the 2016 cycle you can see that what what what essentially happened is Bitcoin kind of spiked up right around this time might it spiked up and then it had a sell off which is funny because that's exactly what happened last year right I mean where it like it spiked and then it sold off remember that's that's exactly what happened last year right Bitcoin spiked up here and then swept these lows right so that's what happened right it so if it if it happens again it would means sweeping this high and then sweeping this low right so like something like this right if it were to repeat 2023 and if it were to repeat um uh what happened here in 20 in 2017 or you know this a 2016 2017 cycle where it got this move up and then it had a a correction down before then picking back up but anyways guys that'll wrap it up for the video thank you guys for tuning in make sure you subscribe give the video a thumbs up but again check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the crypto verse.