What will it take to rebuild Syria after Assad?

what will it take to rebuild Syria just over a week since the fall of the Assad regime hope still prevails but reality is also setting in with thousands of homes and infrastructure destroyed an economy in Ruins and a government leader still listed as a terrorist can Syria maintain enough stability to put a broken country back together and who should help I'm Andrea sanki and today's newsmaker is Syria [Music] 14 years of brutal War have left Syria a shadow of its former self it was already a poor country in 2011 but over the course of the

conflict syrians have faced massive psychological trauma alongside an economy that shrunk around 85% state coffers are virtually empty and more than 2third of the population is in need of Aid and now Syria is under the command of leaders designated as terrorists by powerful countries which means they're banned from legal trade and assistance unless that designation is lifted so what state is Syria really in with so much infrastructure destroyed Civic institutions in shambles and an untested deao government here's a look as the dust slowly settles in Syria the horror and dis destruction wrought by the Bashar

al-assad regime are being exposed Rescuers dig Mass Graves while many are searching for their loved ones some have flocked to the regime's notorious prisons to find the missing others are examining bodies in hospital morgs and when these displaced syrians returned to their neighborhood in the western city of homes they found their homes reduced to Rubble there is no electricity water windows or doors there is no work I'm confused about where I will live should I return to the camp I really don't want to those who fled Syria years ago have similar questions thousands of refugees

have crossed into Syria from bordering countries but many are finding it impossible we would love to return but right now we don't have a house there there is no money to live there and we need money and we want something to go with to Syria solving these problems requires immense planning and rebuilding and it will be expensive a 2021 estimate puts the cost of $250 billion the new government says they are determined to revive the country and urged the International Community to lift the sanctions put in place during Assad's rule un Envoy G pedison visited

Damascus to meet with the hayat T al-sham leader Ahmed al-shara formerly known as as Muhammad Al jalani he said he hopes to bring an end to the sanctions quickly and to review removing the terrorist designation of the HTS meanwhile the un's aid Chief plans an ambitious boost in humanitarian assistance much depends on the conversations we have with the authorities here much depends on whether we can secure the funding that we need from the International Community but we're ready to go big uh and you know this is a moment where we all have to Rally around

behind the Syrian people and to support them to rebuild security Justice opportunity and the country that they deserve rights groups have stressed the importance of preserving prison records to deliver Justice Fadel Abdul gahani head of the Syrian Network for human rights said those are crucial to identify the victims and the perpetrators and as the opposition forces emptied prisons he also has other worries the random release of detainees without Toro review of their files could result in the release of individuals involved in crimes causing additional harm to victims and their families the destruction in Syria has

not ended with the fall of Assad Israeli forces have entered the UN monitored buffer zone in the goolan Heights and approved a plan to expand settlements in the occupied territory it has also pounded Syria with hundreds of air strikes hitting the country's Navy air bases arms Depot and other military equipment the country's new rulers are facing a balancing act with intern interal Powers as they promised to rebuild Syria for all syrians so what will it take to rebuild Syria we joining me now to debate that and more are from Aman senior fellow at the omran

center for strategic studies and former spokesperson for the president of the Syrian interim government yasur tabara from South Carolina retired US army colonel and head of research at the foreign policy research institute's Eurasia program Robert Hamilton and oner Aram is a Turkish domestic and foreign policy analyst thanks all so much for being with me yasur I have to start with you as a Syrian who's now spent so much of your life fighting for change in your home country and now to finally see it in this form is it what you expected and what you wanted

it's uh well thank you for having on the show I mean as a Syrian obviously you know a sense of elation relief um caution uh excitement all at once uh is it what we expected I don't think it's what anybody expected I think this was a a surprise to a lot of uh a lot of us not all of us um it is it is it what the Syrian people has been working uh towards or a good uh portion of the Syrian people have been working for uh over the past at least 14 years if

not more absolutely I mean this is an outcome that uh we all I think could agree that brought a great deal of relief to a country that has suffered for way too long almost five decades or over five Decades of a systematic destruction of its state institutions of its uh uh social fabric uh and of anything that resembles a uh you know a a positive role that it could play regionally and internationally so um no it's what not yeah no I was I was going to I mean your primary objective was achieved but do you

believe for example your former government colleagues you know from the former opposition interim government uh are looking forward to or would even be willing really to work with the now deao government that's that's taken over well first of all this was this didn't you know the fall of the Assad regime was did not completely sum what we've been working on and and our ultimate goal our ultimate goal was always to regain agency and regain ownership of rebuilding the Syrian States and so uh the the departure of the Assad regime and and its fall was a

prerequisite for that uh as a first step the road is is very long ahead uh and uh there's much to be still to be seen what we've seen is a is a number of of different signals some are encouraging some not so much um but uh the considering that this has taken place um you know less than two weeks ago there's still um a great deal of again cautious optimism um Syrian Civil Society Syrian humanitarian Society um the groups that have been building capacity uh over the past 14 years who never had the chance to

do that who have developed governance experience in all sorts of different areas of Syria and territories of Syria are ready to engage and they're going to continue to push for the ultimate goal of creat actual change and rebuilding the Syrian State yeah y one more question for you before I broughten out uh this discussion here as a Syrian knowing your people you know recovering from the trauma of war the tens of thousands who were tortured in the prisons we've seen those who survived Das are syrians able and ready do you think in a in a

particular way knowing the strength of your people to rebuild a country after that kind of emotional trauma and and you know those remembering those who might be so damaged that they want to seek revenge do you think Syria is in a particular position of strength to deal with all of this the the answer is an unequivocal absolutely yes um the as you said the resilience is unmatched um the types of initiatives that we've seen immediately after the fall of the regime people people taking control of of you know their own neighborhoods and in a very

positive way um you know relaunching initiatives the Syrian expatriates that have been on the sidelines waiting for this moment to you know repatriate and reverse the brain drain that has taken place over decades uh you know to organize their their wealth and to pour it back into the country um you know I think all of these are are strong Testaments that the sacrifices of those who've been killed those who been tortured to death those who've been uh disappeared those who have been displaced will finally mean something and and and I think syrians would rely on

that momentum and on that pain to fuel you know their their their will and their resilience and to uh rebuild this country and to not allow anyone to uh go back to um you know the era of of Assad and the authorit iian one party dictatorship uh that has destroyed the Syrian people and Syrian societies and the Syrian States okay Robert Hamilton I'm going to ask you a complex question but very simply phrased what needs to happen for this to go well um that is a complex question but I think it's an important one so

uh thanks Andrea for allowing me to be with you today I think um two things have to happen for things to go well and one of them is that the the new Syrian government has to prove it can run a country it's got internal challenges um it spent HTS at least opposition group and the opposition group that led uh the military operation that overthrew Assad spent most of its time as a military organization and has only recently started to do some of the sort of basic civil and governance services that are going to be required

to run the country so there's that can it run a country um the other internal challenge it faces is the fact that it doesn't control all of the country um about a third of Syria everything north and east of the Euphrates river is under the control of the Syrian Democratic forces which are a Kurdish Arab Coalition backed by the United States so it has to come to some sort of condominium with the SDF and figure out what the structure of Syria internally looks like um in order for it to be able to even uh for

us to see if it can govern the country and then the second thing is it's faced with a lot of challenges posed by external actor so it's got the Russian bases that it still has to decide or figure out in some sort of negotiation with the Russians that's been going on um what the status of Russia's bases in Syria is Moscow won't want to keep them the Kremlin will want to keep them because they're critical to Russia's ability to project power in the Eastern Mediterranean and Africa uh it's it would be very understandable if the

new Syrian government wanted them out because the Russian military spent n i before you go too far cuz I do want to talk about the you know the interests of foreign powers involved uh in Syria but but let me ask you very quickly Robert I mean if we look at idlib for example a region that has you know been administered by so-called Rebels for some time now do you think it's a decent example of how Syria could be going forward you say they have no real experience but they have to some extent in the region

of idlib yeah they were able to to to provide services in idlib um for essentially idlib was a problem created by the Russians in the Assad regime where they were pushing all the opposition groups in places that the rans and the Assad regime conquered into idlib and it is I think it is instructive that all these different groups uh various factions various groups various external backers managed to coexist in idlib so yeah I think idlib uh in a in a perfect world may be uh a microcosm of what could happen uh in Syria more generally

but it'll take a lot of a lot of luck and a lot of patience and a lot of good decisions on the part of not only the new government but all the other political and Military actors in the country okay owner I'd like to hear your thoughts on that analysis there particularly about idb uh this is of course all happening on on tury's borders again millions of refugees looking at options now to return so what is ankara's View and and strategy here going forward first I think it it it is very important to to point

out I think every time that the subject is is arised we're talking about what almost five six Decades of uh um you know Assad family uh regime in Syria that only leaves about 3 to four% of the current Syrian population that has never seen anything but the Assad family regime this fact will actually will will will you know house many problems today and tomorrow uh for things to get moving uh in in Syria it's not going to be easy I think we could all agree that the the the next stage in in rebuilding uh Syria

will will be full of uh you know many many challenges in many different aspects so it's not going to be easy um I think um turkey's perspective from day one uh whether it's idlib uh whether it's anywhere else in Syria has been has been very straightforward um turkey has never tried to to Syria or anywhere else you know export democracy um you know figure out new ways to uh you know divide uh a country whether through cultural differences or or religious differences I think what turkey has will be doing as it as she has been

doing thus far is trying to make sure that uh you know rebuilding Syria where everyone's voices are heard everyone voices do matter and that uh the country will reach a level of prosperity for at least its citizens to be able to you know have a have a have a roof over their head and have have a decent meal to eat and and a decent somewhat decent schools to go to and somewhat Health System to take care of its to take care of its people uh I think uh turkey approaches this from number of different perspectives

but uh in here in this situation turkey's role respon responsibility and Stakes are the highest because it is our neighbor and it will be till the end of time uh which means if there's problems there it will definitely affect us as it has with the uh millions of refugees that turkey turkey has been housing over the past 10 12 years so I think um turkey's mind is set trying to re trying to rebuild Syria uh but by syrians not by you know influencing them or forcing them into something that they are not is this going

to be easy no because as I said we're talking about five to six decades uh of Assad famine regime where only four or maybe 3% of the population knows something aside from this regime right okay let me come back to Yas at this point I want to look a little bit closer at what is happening within Syria because now we have Ahmed Al Shar the deao leader he's telling minorities is now you know both at home and abroad that all syrians will be protected uh he said in fact all Rebel factions will be disbanded and

you know the fighters trained instead to join the ranks of the defense Ministry that sounds ideal everyone working together in the defense of of the sole country is he to be believed and do you think it's genuinely possible well yes because I think it's directly in his own interest to um U consolidate uh as much as possible any of the uh potential elements that can instigate violence or instigate instability I think now his challenge as um u a uh a transitionary hopefully head of state is to ensure as a number one priority that the security

of all syrians is guaranteed um I think one of the uh main fact factors that uh that that has caused the uh destabilization of the Syrian state is the fact that uh it just was allowing way too many foreign and domestic actors uh to roam free uh some willingly some you know against its will but I think that is you know the the the new sort of logic um that will have to be implemented by a Shar and and his government and and his appointed government um that you know the state naturally has to monopolize

violence and uh it has to uh bring all factions together and I think they have demonstrated record of doing that uh in idlib and going back to your earlier question yes I mean I think there are qualitative and quantitative differences in terms of governance U the governance of idlib both on a security uh uh um point of from a security point of view and from you know basic Administration administrative Services point of view but if you look at idlib and compare it to other areas u under the the Syrian map over the past let's say

four or five years you'll see that it was the potentially the most livable uh from a Services point of view from a uh security point of view uh area in all of sying territory um and and a lot of people make that argument and so I think they're trying to you know transition or transmit that experience uh into you know all of Syria and that's obviously an extreme uh challenge but uh so far if anybody can can meet that challenge I think it would be a Shar and uh and HTS it is very encouraging to

hear that yes sir I just have a a quick kind of detailed question to ask you because that personally I've been very curious about we've been seeing so much celebration around for example so many thousands of people being released from Syria's prisons um I have have to question that because it's not just political prisoners that are in a lot of those those prisons and they've been entirely opened do you fear what the fabric of that new newly released uh population really entails do you think that could be a destabilizing factor in Syria going forward or

do you think really just the vast majority where political prisoners and the rest can be dealt with by police and security forces that are there it's still it's still to be seen what the actual you know percentage and statistic in terms of you know political prisoners versus otherwise I mean what we've seen what we know is that there were tens of thousands if not in the above the 100,00 uh number in terms of political detainees and unfortunately the majority of them have been murdered uh In Cold Blood and under torture and and other methods of

of of of extermination by the by the Assad regime which um we will uh uh as a people make sure to to hold them fully accountable for now look there are a lot of concerns that we have um you know uh you know there's there's there's a very robust debate that is taking place that have been taking place since day Zero since December 8th on the challenges and on the behaviors of you know this um uh you know you know the the the the the the uh Power in Damascus and uh there has been a

lot of push back and there has been a lot of uh you know uh uh questions put on the table and um that's going to be you know the nature of this upcoming period where you know we will continue to ask the the right questions and hope to get the right answers and push for the right Behavior by by those in control it is going to be a process to say the least uh Robert Hilton let me come back to you um you know to really be able to work effectively though going forward this deao

government HTS and Ahmed Al Shar will will have to really lose that terrorist designation do you think they will and then from that point forward you know then you can look at the competition that's going to arise between foreign powers not least Russia as you mentioned Iran as well as what Israel even wants in the Goen Heights there's a war Brewing there yeah and so of course whether gelani and HTS lose the terrorist designation is dependent upon outside actors um it's dependent upon largely us and the EU which are you know the two biggest sort

of political actors that have designated uh them a terrorist organization and there's still a bounty on his head from the US and so um I I think certainly there will be discussions between uh the EU the US and the new Syrian government uh the EU to my understanding has already laid conditions down uh that that say future EU Aid to the new Syrian government is dependent upon the Syrian government opposing the Russian bases so that complicates it even further because then you not only have the terrorist question but you've got the question of what external

actors are present in Syria so um those are things that for the government to succeed I think external Aid is going to be important especially from Big countries like the us or big actors like the EU uh and so there will probably have to be some some restitution made or some discussions that lead to an agreement on restitution for past behavior and Promises of future behavior on the part of HTS and maybe galani himself the new Syrian government um in terms of its uh support for terrorism okay owner if you have some thoughts on that

go ahead but I also wanted to ask you uh specifically you know turkey's position looking at what is happening in the Goen Heights and the fact that that Israel is moving in somewhat aggressively right now because attention is is turned away this is particularly an area that is of of concern to uh the new leader Amad Al Shar because this is where he is from uh where do where do you see that going as far as a strategy in maintaining security and territorial Integrity of Syria let me just briefly address the terrorist uh you know

label um for I mean unfortunately we live in a world where terrorists are you know not uh labeled or not not not you know portrayed due to the acts of terrorism they they they uh they show but rather due to U you know certain countries labeling a person as a terrorist or not as a matter of fact some of those countries they change their stand on people or organizations whether they're terrorists or not depending on their uh own uh you know politics or or International diplomacy so that being said um if if if we're talking

about you know Justified uh labels uh then we just need to look at the person's acts whether they fall in line with acts of terrorism or not um going back to your other question I think when you started the the the uh the question where you said um that there's something Brewing there I think that's the exact word that that I I would have been looking for there is something definitely brewing in in Golden Heights and which is where Golani is from obviously uh the thing is uh I don't know there's there's a easy way

or or a safe way to get out of this unfortunately uh any kind of a clash in in and around Golden Heights regarding Golden Heights will not be easily resolved and unfortunately there is a big chance that it would be uh very messy and and and very bloody and I hope it doesn't get to that stage yeah let me ask uh Robert Hamilton then very quickly for final thoughts there uh owner says there's no easy potentially no easy or safe way to get out of this what's brewing in the Golden Heights would you agree there

and where would the US actually stand on Israel further occupying land in Syria while it's in such a vulnerable state I I agree that there's no easy way out of this um trying to predict the US reaction to an expanded Israeli incursion into the Golan Heights is difficult because we're at an inflection point between administrations and I think all you can say is the current Administration the Biden Administration although I think the global view is it's been pretty soft on Syria has been much I'm sorry soft on Israel has been much harder on Israel than

an incoming Trump Administration will be okay that will have to be the final word then for this edition of the newsmakers I'd like to thank sincerely all three of my panelists so much for being with me our viewers of course for joining us as well remember you can follow us on X and do be sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel I'm Andrea sanki we'll see you next time for [Music]