Why 0.008% of the U.S. population might determine the election | About That

in 2020 Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by a seemingly huge margin 306 Electoral College votes to 232 but let me show you how shaky that lead really was 16 of those votes in Georgia that went to Biden look how that race went 2.47 million to 2.46 million that's a difference of just 11,779 votes meaning if half that number 5,890 people switched from Biden to Trump all 16 of those Electoral College votes would have gone to Trump as well and this gets crazier Arizona was similar razor thin margins Biden won by 10,457 votes so if 5,229

of those people decided to change their mind Trump would have taken all of Arizona's 11 Electoral College votes finally look at Wisconsin Biden won by almost 21,000 votes if 10 10,342 Biden supporters changed their votes to Trump Wisconsin's 10 Electoral College votes would have gone to Trump as well so what's the point of this Mental Math well if those roughly 20,000 people across three states change their votes handing Trump those 37 Electoral College votes suddenly we end up in the Absurd and almost unprecedented outcome of a perfect tie 200 69 to 269 what happens in

a tie the House of Representatives decides who wins and it gets a little complicated but one possible outcome of that vote is that Donald Trump becomes president for a second term all thanks to 2,461 voters in a country of more than 330 million people that my friends is swing state math and it's why Donald Trump and KLA Harris have spent so much time in the seven Battleground States hello Pennsylvania how are we doing Pennsylvania I thank you North Carolina we're going to get this done that could determine the outcome of the election this [Music] November

so let's get really specific about how pollsters predict which states will be key Battlegrounds here's a map of the US most of these states have clear enough voting patterns that it would be a surprise if they stepped wildly out of line like with California the joke is that Democrats could run a cardboard cutout there and still probably win in all they likely start with 226 Electoral College votes in the bag that's not far off from the 270 needed to win but on the other side a huge swath of the country this Republican belt is solidly

red that gives Republicans 219 Electoral College votes that they can count on which leaves these seven states where the margins between Victory and defeat are so so thin in 2020 less than three percentage points separated the winner from the loser in each case and each outcome was a major showstopping headline Joe Biden your projected winner in the state of Arizona the Associated Press has just called Wisconsin for Joe Biden Joe Biden has one miss Mig and gets the 16 electoral votes and here's where each side can get really strategic because you don't need to win

all seven or even the majority of Swing States in order to win the election either side can win with as few as three of these swing States in Trump's case there's only one way to do this if he wins Pennsylvania North Carolina and Georgia the three biggest most valuable swing States if he doesn't win exactly those three states he'll need at least four of the swing states to snatch back the presidency or else he'll need to generate another surprise Elsewhere on the map meanwhile there are several combinations of three-state Victories that give Harris the win

but that's just a mathematical look at the swing state paths to Victory here are the most plausible paths for KLA Harris and Donald Trump the most straightforward way for her to get elected is still to carry uh Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin and the one congressional district in Nebraska uh that sometimes votes for Democrats that would put her at exactly 270 I think her strategy is going to be to try to gain the sun Bel States and States like Arizona and Georgia for Donald Trump their path is to hold North Carolina try to flip uh Georgia

or Arizona or Nevada and then run the table in the Rust Belt and then to rely on those white rural workingclass voters in Michigan in Wisconsin and in Pennsylvania and worth pointing out if either candidate wins any five of the seven swing States and they hold on to every other state they're expected to that's enough that gets either one across the 270 Electoral College vote Finish [Music] Line so easy right you just have to win somewhere between three and five of the Swing States hold the other 20 or so states that everyone just expects you

to hold on to and and you're golden well each swing state is different different issues different geography different voters Pennsylvania is a great example of that it's where Harris began a 5-day Battleground tour announcing Tim Walls as her vice president good evening Philadelphia just about every major news organization has put Pennsylvania in must-win territory it's the most valuable of the Battleground States worth 19 Electoral College votes there is just going to be an enormous amount of campaign activity taking place in Pennsylvania whoever carries Pennsylvania is very likely to be the next president and it's a

big part of why Trump won in 2016 he cracked Pennsylvania along with Wisconsin and Michigan part of this impenetrable blue wall of states that have been reliably Democrat for decades Biden took all three states back in 2020 but keep in mind he's also from there Biden Drew often on his Pennsylvania upbringing while he was campaigning scr's not my home because of the memories it gave me it's because of the values it instilled in me but Paris doesn't have that same Edge and Hing suggests she's weak with workingclass men striking the right balance winning over voters

in big cities and rural areas alike will be key in the Keystone State it's an unusual State because it's so large that it has very distinct regions with very distinct uh political cultures it's a state that shows a little bit of everything in the United States and reflects a lot of the sharp divisions that we have in Wisconsin Once Upon a Time this was shaping up to be a battle for three and it still might be robbert F Kennedy Jr had fought to get his name on the ballot in this state and he succeeded problem

is he's since thrown his support behind Donald Trump and this is one state where he now can't seem to get his name off the B ballot which could be confusing for voters Michigan and North Carolina he has managed to pull out but speaking of North Carolina it's the only swing state this time around that Trump actually won in 2020 so it's a key hold North Carolina uh is the one that gets away from Democrats every four years but the margin of Victory last time around was only about one percentage point and Democrats do hope that

this will be the Georgia of 2024 meaning a state that has has a decades long almost uninterrupted Republican history but that could be a dramatic and consequential flip if other swing States go Trump's way if we win the state of Nevada it's over for them Nevada had a sluggish postco recovery and has among the worst unemployment rates in the country Michigan has the country's largest proportion of Arab Americans a demographic whose support of Biden took a hit as the US stood steadfastly by its Al Israel during the ongoing war in Gaza in Georgia black voters

make up roughly a third of the state's population easily the biggest black voting Block in any of the seven Battleground States black voters are among the most loyally democratic voters in American politics and a lot of the growth of the city of Atlanta has been amongst black voters and Arizona the Grand Canyon State Trump has a big Advantage here Arizona is a border state uh which means it feels the effect of immigration firsthand Trump has repeatedly attacked Harris over the country's illegal immigration crisis and he's vowed to carry out the largest deportation operation in American

history all of this adds up to a very eclectic range of issues that each presidential hopeful will try to master over the next two months the good news for them is that they don't need to figure it all out they just need the right handful of Voters in the right States at the right time