2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker

welcome back to the all-in podcast everybody I'm your host Jason calacanis I'll put in a bunch of plugs for the projects I'm working on throughout the show to annoy my co-hosts and continue the grift but it is 2025 and we are doing our bestie Awards it's going to be amazing today we've got so much to do today with us again for the second time a truly amazing bestie Gavin Baker from at trees Capital am I correct is it a treaty Capital you put management tradies management oh a tradi management okay and uh just call it

House of treaties oh no let's not get him in trouble I P Gavin welcome back to the program let us know um just briefly what does a treaties do thanks for having me here Jason chamama and Dave a tradies we're a we're crossover firm we invest publicly and privately in consumer and Tech and we go from series a to Mega cap got it okay so you are a capital allocator you're place bets on technology on the most important new companies in the world we'll get into that and this is our prediction show we did our

besti Awards how big is your firm Gavin oh well you just met the guy free brg you don't just ask him how big his firm is the audience wants to know is this guy a player like what's the deal roughly $4 billion okay all right so that's about a half an inch bigger than shth he's really worried now's not that he's the size queen or anything let your winners ride Rainman David and instead we open sources to the fans and they've just gone crazy [Music] with we're going to do a really great prediction show today

and we're going to do some super predictions this year each bestie gets to make a super prediction or two during the show and we're going to take those super predictions shamal and we're going to put them on poly Market yes that's right if you don't know polyk Market there a prediction Market where people can place a wager a bet an investment in one or the other side and uh they're p is my image good it feels like it's blurry it's a little blurry that's the Avalanche coming and so I guess is that the Maga Avalanche

what is this Avalanche is that people screaming across the border what's the metaphor here TR up is that the huge orgasm uh that you're about to lay down in 2025 rocking my friend no no this is a shout out to my friend Ruben Oland who's the director of a bunch of really amazing movies um including the one behind me Force measure there you go all right we did an amazing partnership with poly Market freeberg you want to detail the partnership and some way you I think you helped work on it well we obviously have talked

to Shane at Poly market for some time and we set up a a deal with them where we could put our own markets up on the on the site so we're going to talk about a couple of our predictions this year and then poly Market will post them up on on their site and people can can trade them obviously xus and we're really excited about it because it'll allow us to kind of track how we're doing and give us the opportunity on an ongoing basis to create market so there'll be an all-in section on poly

Market where you can kind of go in and see the all-in market it's going to be really cool awesome fantastic and so uh we just got we're all wrapping up our our uh ski trip here Nick I understand there was some footage some found footage from the bestie skiing is that true oh here we go look at this here I come down the mountain Gavin I want you to rate everybody skiing here I come looking great there comes looking good and then Here Comes somebody I think the technical term Joe Lonsdale does for that third

person is a beep beep okay here we go and look at this technique coming down look at chamama chamat you really Advanced since last season look at him cutting those S turns Gavin what do you think listen to me I I made a very strategic decision to stop snowboarding so I could learn to ski with my kids it is so hard to learn how to do something in your 40s no I mean if you've never done it but I do appreciate what you and your brother did for me last season I learned a couple things

so it's been my thir there with the black bomber my third season it was great I am absolutely amazed at the progress you're making freeberg I'm amazed you made it onto the mountain you you were out there a number of days you're getting it done I needed new boot and I tore my MCL last season so I'm in it got really tweaked when I went out there but I'm good it was great I had a lot of fun I mean I four days yeah you ski four days okay I finished my 16th day yesterday but

I took today off just to get prepared here yeah I got 16 I do the executive program Gavin I go off for an hour and a half to three hours Zip Zip Zip 10 runs and I'm done I only ski in the morning yeah that's the way to do same same same and and at 1215 have lunch relax get a little work done need a healthy healthy mix of AA ski and ski Gavin how would you compare yourself to what you just witnessed in that video your skiing ability where would you rank yourself clearly it's

me chamath freeberg in that ranking where would you land in the ranking I well I would say i' make two observations first like I'm in the bottom percentile in terms of natural athleticism but I do have many many thousands of hours skiing great okay and I would just leave I would just leave that yes well then we'll be going out with you next year new best all right we got to get to it we're going to start off with politics gentlemen we got to keep this moving because there's so many predictions we're going to do

our 2025 prediction for biggest political winner now last year well yeah I think we we got it kind of wrong freedberg you said independent third party in the US and we did see some of that with you know the breakout of Robert Kennedy maybe chamat you said independent Centrist we didn't get there with that one and I said Darkhorse presidential candidates maybe I get a quarter Point Credit there with wait hold on what do you mean we didn't get there independent centrists won the election for mean independent Centrist won the election really that's what you

believe yeah okay I didn't think that it was the Independence but okay I think independent Centrist swung the election for Biden in 2020 and then I think they swung the election for Trump in 2024 huh is that statistically correct you think freeberg you about that independent centrus did the election or Gavin what do you think I think it's right like I think a lot of there were a lot of people not just cists but a lot of people who had been lifelong Democratic voters who voted for Trump so I do think Trump won the cists

I mean Trump trump won everything essentially yeah okay shabat who's your prediction for the biggest political winner of 2025 my biggest political winner for 2025 are fiscal conservatives I think that we are going to Ted a very important Concept in 2025 and I hope it works which is that of austerity and the reason why austerity has to work is that the only thing left after austerity is to cut entitlements and I think that in doing this we are going to figure out how much waste Fraud and Abuse exists in the United States federal government I

think that that's going to spill over to a lot of State elections and I think that the fiscal conservatives that have been clamoring for a more restrained approach to spending will have their Day in 2025 okay fiscal conservatives from schoth freeberg who's your prediction for the biggest political winner of 2025 I also took a a class-based approach I chose young candidates so Trump cabinet picks have an average age of 40 to 45 years old compared to the Biden cabinet the average age is a little over 59 almost 60 years old and I do think that

this marks the beginning of a new trend in the kind of age range of political candidates shifting younger so I think that this is something we should expect as candidates start to emerge for the midterms by the end of 2025 we'll start to see younger new names start to pop up that deliver resident messages and aren't part of kind of the Old Guard of you know the Aging political class so I think that's a trend kind of underway now excellent young candidates so we got fiscal conservatives young candidates Gavin what do you got for the

2025 prediction for biggest political winner I would say Trump and centrism for my choice for 202's biggest political winner I went with something similar to you freedberg I said Gen X and the Elder Millennials if you look at the notable Gen X appointments you got Elon with do you got saxs obviously Marco Rubio my God it just goes down and then if you look at the Elder Millennials JD Vance V fake Tuli just a lot of young people and this is going to be absolutely fantastic I think because they're going to start thinking not just

about themselves uh as the boomers are doing with Social Security taxes real estate all the different issues that they tend to pick for themselves they're going to start thinking about maybe their own kids and themselves so yeah it's obviously a sea change is underway so they have a folks for our predictions for political winner let's go with political loser here prediction for political loser we start off with You Gavin we'll do this a little round robin here we'll snake it around Gavin what do you think who'll be the biggest political loser of 2025 I think

Putin I think Putin is going to lose bigly um so if you are xiin ping you know xim Russia is a client state of China at this point and if you're xiin ping what is happening is now a disaster for you because Europe is starting to rearm and which is which will only accelerate this year that will allow America to take resources out of Europe and put them in uh Japan and South Korea and all over the Pacific and that makes it a lot harder for you to do what you most want to do which

is reunify um China and Taiwan or invade Taiwan uh let's call it what it is and I just think X is going to begin decoupling from Putin if you're Trump you want to show that you're independent that you're not um inthrall to Putin in any way so I think Trump is going to be a lot tougher on Putin than people think and I think he's going to get a very very uh a deal that's very very bad for Russia and Ukraine and you know you've lost half a million people and for what for what exactly

yeah and it's a thousand over a thousand days into this nobody from the West H you know in the NATO or America no no soldiers have lost their lives from our side we've just given them weapons and so it's a humiliating defeat so far for Putin I agree with you freeberg your prediction for the biggest political loser of 2025 friberg's prediction I'm gonna predict the proar neocons who are going to go head-to-head with the JD Vance and Elon and others of the world and I think that they're going to lose and I think that there's

going to be this kind of big crack in the establishment of this this neocon movement that's been very Pro conflict around the world and we've heard it in the speeches and in the commentary from JD and others and I think this is going to be the year it's all gonna kind of come to a head I think they're gonna end up on the losing side can iav can I take the other side just just a little bit so I think that's why you're here yeah yeah I think it's right in reality but I think you

know Trump said something very interesting about John Bolton he said the guy was absolutely crazy but it was awesome having him in the room when you negoti deals people looked at this guy looking angry red in the face so excited to hit the nuclear button so excited to go to war and you ended up with much better deals so I think you're going to see probably a lot more bellicosity from the Trump Administration than anyone expects and that's just to get a good deal for you know between Russia and Ukraine and then it's to get

China to kind of decouple from Russia so I think the um in reality I think you're right David but I think there will be a lot of rhetoric that is at odds with what you're saying before you end up being right we already see it with Canada with NATO with Taiwan there's a lot you know we're gonna do this or this the tariffs obviously there's just a lot of very aggressive posturing leading up to the negotiations that are hopefully going to get the US good deals we'll see shamat you have a prediction for your 2025

biggest political loser predictions hard to do the uh biggest political loser of 2025 is going to be progress iism so November of last year right after the election I flew to London and went up to Oxford and I spoke at the Oxford Union and very impressive my speech was a full-throated defense of Maga but it was mostly an explanation of Maga and it was sort of the antidote to Progressive instincts that had been riddling the Western G8 countries and was starting to basically come on gun and when you look at what's about to happen in

2025 in Canada Justin Trudeau is going to lose massively to Pier POV in Germany afd looks like they will win in France if there's a deadlock and it goes into an election more than likely Marine Leen is going to win and then in the UK where you see this unfolding child rape scandal where allegedly upwards of hundreds of thousands of young girls over the course of 20 plus years were being raped by organizations of Pakistani Muslim men who were then not prosecuted for Fears of stoking islamophobia as it turns out by the current prime minister

Kier starmer and if all of that comes to pass in the UK I think you're going to see the labor government fall and I think you're going to see Nigel farage win so what do all of these countries look like like by the end of 25 it's very much a repudiation of this class-based identity politics and I think that has enormous Ripple effects all throughout the world and so I think the biggest political loser for 2025 I think stands to be progressivism quote unquote what they what we labeled progressivism I I took something very similar

I said the racist vocal minority of each one of these parties and there's a little bit of this on either side you have Dei on one side and then you just have outright racism on the other side and it's probably 5% of Maga and 5% of the left and just to recap last year's political predictions for 2024 our predictions for political loser was I said Netanyahu freeberg you said Ukraine and shath you said the coke family the GOP nailed that one I nailed that one freeberg any thoughts on last year's or anything on the Republican

side more than the Koch family do you think I mean explain for the audience who maybe aren't as into it well I think essentially 2024 was the end of the Republican party as we knew it and I think what stands in its place is what I would call the Maga reflection of a coalition of people that will be housed under the label of republicanism which is to say that these folks aren't necessarily Republicans these folks are believers of the Maga philosophy they're just using the Republican vessel in order to run their candidates and get elected

and in that overturning of the status quo what you had was this one family who was at the center for the last few Decades of political Machinery that essentially decided candidates that it decided agenda that it decided policy and that was the coch family and they spent an enormous amount of money to get that which they stood up frankly literally the day after citizens united happened in the Supreme Court and I think that in that lens those billions of dollars of investment have essentially gone to zero because I don't think it means much of anything

anymore and if you look at the new class of donors who will decide quote unquote Republican policy it's going to be the the muriam Adon of the world the Elon musks of the world and that's very different than how I think the cokes used to decide things do you think there's too much money in politics now Gavin do I think there's too much money in politics now um it's it's a good question you know I might feel very very differently if I didn't agree so profoundly with with the largest owner in this political cycle yeah

I I would say the reality is is like the the the money as long as the money raised on each side is roughly equivalent I don't think it really matters that would that would be my take you just want some equivalence that's all all right let's do our 2025 predictions for biggest business winner freeberg why don't you start us off biggest business winner for 2025 what's your prediction so I feel like we're at a really interesting inflection point that is going to make 2025 the year of autonomous Hardware or robotics if 2024 was the year

of kind of compute build out and the roll out of AI systems in software I think 2025 will be the year of the robot you know there's a company I we just placed an order today actually out of China called unry Gavin have you looked at this company yeah it's pretty wild actually it's an incredible business incredible product so their go2 robot is $1600 has an API here it is you can run a payload on it it's got lar on it it's got kind of intelligence guidance systems on it this is the robot system that

was used on some of those videos we looked at earlier this year where there were machine guns mounted to the back and it was basically a new kind of field Soldier it's an autonomous field Soldier but really you can use it in scientific applications we're looking at using them in our uh on our on our test Farms where it can wander the farm and take images and Report data back to us and it's such a low cost that like less than $3,000 you can do some incredible things with it so this business just raised a

couple hundred million dollar last month from Mostly Chinese investors it's a Chinese company and I think that there's going to be you know other similar type businesses you know it kind of takes a long time for things to work and then all of a sudden they happen faster than you could have ever imagined I think this is going to be the year where we're all going to look at humanoid robots and autonomous systems and be like oh my God I can't believe this is here um so this could be the year such a great strong

choice for the biggest winner and I think the quote you're looking for is how did you go bankrupt slowly and then all at once that's how these technology changes and man I would love to have one of these for the ranch to just run around and do the perimeter security sorry Nick pull up the you guys got to watch this if you haven't seen it Nick find the video of the go2 with the wheels on it U managing terrain and everyone thought this was a BS video that it was like CGI wasn't real it was

AI generated but like this thing is just incredible here it is this is a real video of this thing yeah and it could learn from an llm too right like a large language model could teach it how to do so yeah Gavin is this real like what's your abely real yeah yeah I want to get the G1 which is their humanoid robot yeah so pull up the humanoid it's really cool yeah a little more expensive yeah yeah I mean $166,000 is the cost of a used Prius let's be honest that's in spitting distance of being

affordable mid look at this thing 16 Grand and this thing you can you know you can basically command it to do things for you in your house or in your factory or place oh come on I knew you would do it oh come on I was going to say maybe we could get a poker dealer maybe B you know I wonder if this thing could deal do you guys remember that robot that was on stage for our all-in Holiday Spectacular One so my my brother made an observation he said as soon as that robot came

out it's like everyone just wanted to abuse it he's like humans have this very interesting nature where like the robot emerges and all that humans want to do is like hurt the robot it's like ration of behavior yeah like just it's like oh here's something I dominate here's something I can tell we're so threatened by it we want to make sure that we're the top of the species here and it doesn't feel like it's going to be for much longer I mean these things will kick our ass pretty soon anyway these things are amazing I

think this is going to be the year of the robots that's my pred year of the robots is your prediction I love it uh Gavin what do you got profoundly agree I think you're the robots um inclusive of FSD you know I think FSD works today and it's gonna it's it's going to cross into mainstream adoption where I already notice particularly if I'm taking an Uber late at night I really really prefer to have a Tesla just sometimes you get an Uber driver who's who's tired and I just feel a lot safer if they have

the FSD running and then obviously using it for yourself is amazing but I think it's going to continue compounding at an accelerating rate I think the in a lot of ways what I'd say broadly is I think for a while it's going to be big businesses are winners big businesses that use Ai thoughtfully and the reason is is that with what is happening what what 03 showed us open ai's new model the combination of reasoning and test time compute like I think you're if you're a big business and you can pay a million dollars to

let let an AI think for 6 weeks about the most important question for your business that's going to be a profound Advantage relative to small businesses that can't afford that and by the way we are the other like inference compute is going to be the the kind of derivative when of that we're going to run out of gpus accelerators compute in 20125 the same way we did in 23 okay so you're also long Nvidia and chip makers grock Etc because we're finding new uses for all that compute absolutely okay very good chth do you have

a prediction for your biggest business winner of 2025 sir I think the biggest business winner of 2025 are going to be dollar denominated stable coins oh I'll make two points in 2024 two critical things happened the first is that stable coins essentially became uncoupled from crypto volatility and it started to be used for wholesale useful functions in running businesses and there's an image here that starts to show that so independent of crypto volatility what you saw were stable coin usage just rising up and to the right that's an incredibly important decoupling that happened in 24

the second and this data is still just trickling in but it's an incredible stat stablecoin usage at the end of the second quarter of 2024 was about 1.1 billion transactions that summed to 8.5 trillion do of transaction volume if you compare that to Visa over the same period it was more than double visas transaction volume so I think what we have now is something that has fundamentally crossed a point of no return similar to how last year I thought that the big Trend was going to be Bitcoin in 2024 I would say that the big

Trend in 25 is stable coin usage I think we're going to finally attack the duopoly of visa and MasterCard I think you're going to see an inal number of use cases that sit and use stable coin rails I think when Donald Trump becomes president I think you're going to see him go after incredibly High credit card transactions and costs you're already seeing cacks in consumer credit anyways because of these high aprs all of this stuff is going to come to a head in 2025 I think and I think stable coins could quadruple or quintuple by

the end of 25 I think it's just going to be an enormous Market great choice should they be regulated chamath we saw at some of these Congressional hearings tether was kind of dragged for being the primary transfer and and monetary tool for terrorism for getting around sanctions and for human trafficking should it be regulated and how I I don't think I'm qualified to say how it should but I think the point is that there are these IM logs that sit in between and on either side of all of these transactions and so I think the

knowledge is there and there are a whole bunch of third party services that add that intelligence layer I think the the thing to really question is if you just took 300 basis points of drag yes out of the global economy massive gain how valuable would that be and I think it would be valuable just in the United States alone to the tune of a trillion dollars so the idea that you wouldn't do it at this point is somewhat quizzical to me so I just think that the economic justification for this now is just so profound

Gavin let me ask you a hard question there as well should the United States government give up the let's face it you know they they have a bit of a strangle hold they've got a bit of a monopoly on US Dollars these things are a competitor and we were sitting here on this program over the last couple years talking about the bricks and them starting their own currency aren't these in some way similar to that and they would take people off the USD standard how do you look at that because that is the criticism that

some people in power have put forward I do I do think that they might be very good for the world but I do think they would be very bad for America if they replaced if some constellation of stable coins became the new Reserve currency it is such a an advantage to be able to borrow in your own currency and to give that up lightly that just that means you control you have you you control the real size of your debt at all times oh wow we have a big big debt I mean this is a

little bit like what we just did let's just have let's just let inflation run hot and oh wow that debts a lot smaller than it was effectively so I think it would be a big mistake freeberg you have any thoughts on it we we've been talking about currency here and a whole bunch over the last couple years any thoughts on stable coins and and just the uh Monopoly we have on it I I don't know enough about stable coins well that'll be one of our big topics for the year and we should uh definitely invite

jir from USD on or usdc usdc Geremy air I mentioned by the way that I had this small little product that I exposed to the world which is just our research and we sit it on top of substack again the tools aren't very good and we use stripe and Jeremy reached out to me and he's like I'll just rebuild all of your payment rails on using US dollar stable coins and it's a no-brainer because I'm spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in transaction costs that now I can just save and use to hire somebody else

or just pay the team more and so I you're paying 10% to suback in the 3% yeah if it's obvious for me it's obvious for everybody else all right my biggest business winner prediction for 2025 is Tesla and Google I think this is going to be the year of AI and Robotics obviously but I am just absolutely amazed at the comeback that Google has made with AI and I'm absolutely in awe of what Elon did with Colossus if those of you don't know Jensen Wong Michael D they all obviously participated in building out xai and

they were shocked they couldn't believe that they stood up a 100,000 gpus in under 45 days was it Gavin something in that neighborhood it was a tremendous effort and uh you that's not Tesla right is that Tesla well Elon Tesla xai and Google that cohort who are investing heavily in AI those two specifically those two three names I think are going to be the biggest winners next year they're going to come out with some things that people didn't anticipate I don't I don't think people are anticipating what Google Google is going to come out with

because Gemini deep research I keep telling people this and I'm using the app is so impressive drop what you're doing right now pause the podcast download Gemini and just start playing with deep resarch on your desktop pay the 20 bucks for it it is mindblowing it blows anything else in the market out of the water period full stop it is a step function higher all right I'll just leave it at that Jason shouldn't you uh just go with the vibe of the podcast shouldn't you explain what it is what sorry okay so what it does

is good call good call if you wanted to create a model let's say and I did this where I said hey make me a model based upon what it would take to replace all the cars and trips in the United States with full self-driving cars what would that cost to do and if you ask that to chat GPT or grock or you know Claude it's going to give you a decent answer what deep research does is it goes and it figures out what the subcomponents of each of those questions would be and then it fires

off multiple threads and then it searches the web in real time which Google is extremely good at and then it summarizes it gives citations and it produces a report that looks like something that Gartner group McKenzie Boston Consulting Group would have spent I don't know 30 days on Gavin and a million dollars a half million dollars it's [ __ ] Bonkers how good this is but the amount of compute it takes is extraordinary that's why chat GPT released something similar that's 200 bucks a month the 01 Pro I think they call it and then this

one is like 20 bucks from Gemini anyway given what Google has access to YouTube your G drive your Google Docs Etc your Gmail it's going to do things that you wouldn't anticipate like if you were asking this question it might look in your Gmail for possibilities to answer those questions or YouTube videos of channels you subscribe to so this is going to I think knock people's socks off and solve problems that people didn't know they had is that a pretty good explanation Gavin yeah think it's great for last year our predictions for business winner chamat

said bootstrapped or Endor profitable startups I think that's a really great pick and that came to pass we're seeing some of those go public and raise money at higher valuations or not go out of business freeberg you said Commodities businesses I'm not sure how that did do you know did you Che pretty flat yeah we didn't have a lot of the inflationary pressures that I think were underlying that pie so got it it ended up being I'd say a loser relative to other indices you could bought this year I said training data owners like Reddit

New York Times Google Etc Reddit stock up 24% in 2024 and they launched their own Reddit answer call yeah I think I got that one uh New York Times stock is up as well and they uh fired off that lawsuit with open AI all right now we're going to move on to the 2025 biggest business loser predictions in 2024 shamat said pro sports teams because they hit Peak valuations that's looking like a pretty good prediction free perg you said vertical SAS companies because of AI disrupt that's another one that seems like a great prediction I

said smartphone manufacturers Apple stock was up 30% in 2024 but I think we've all seen that these uh smartphones aren't advancing and people are taking their times the sales of those are down services are up I would take the other side on pro sports teams it feels like that market is about to be institutionalized and funds are going to start buying pro sports teams okay that ultimately and ultimately Capital markets have way more resources than kind of the wealthy individual ual who've done it for to date so I just think it's the amount of money

that can go after pro sports teams is about uh you know 10x 100x no I think I think you're totally right the the reason I said that last year was it was pretty clear to me at the time and the NBA was the canary and the coal mine that there was a viewership problem in professional sports and specifically in the NBA the game has devolved into essentially rebounds and dunks or three point ERS and the issue with that is that it becomes just meaningfully less interesting to watch at the same time because of the the

fact that the TV deals are really what determines the discounted value of these sports franchises the TV deal was so enormous that it creates no reliable rivalries anymore because people will hop scotch teams almost every year because the compensation that they can get is just so obscene quite honestly and I think what happens is sports will have a decent run until the next TV deals get done and I think if you for example take Pharma ads outside of TV so like that pool shrinks if you have less viewership and so you can sell the remaining

ads less effectively because there's just fewer of them and then there's fewer buyers and it shrinks yet again then the dollar pool that the television networks and the Stream are going to be willing to pay for sports will go down and the group that will be the most price sensitive are exactly who you said Gavin meaning the non trophy buyer so like you know when I bought into the Warriors I bought it purely as a trophy asset and I was pricing sensitive but I agree with you that now that you have the PE firms on

the cap tables of these sports franchises those folks are all DCFS those folks are all Excel models I don't think that they're buying things for emotion I don't think they've grown up thinking I want to own this thing not using institutional LP dollars so I just think that's why that's why I said that in 24 so I just on behal of Phil Huth and I we appreciate you made that vanity investment for the number of times we got to sit in your court side seats yeah because I never we made with NBA players I never

went to the games I should have gone to more games I went to your games and almost got thrown out of your seats I got a red card one time it's true is it true you did oh you don't I got a I got a call I got a call I think it was from the Warriors or it's from from the NBA something to the effect of chouth this guy that was sitting in your seats was almost kicked out and I said excuse me because I knew that it was Game In fairness and and he

was like jawboning our own players I was getting into it with bogot and with David Lee because I told it was unbelievable I told Steve cerr listen you're up 30 on my Knicks sit these guys down this is Bush League what if Steph Curry gets hurt out there like and uh you know Boga told me to shut up Andre boa told him to basically go pound in a basically did it was the funniest thing ever Gavin this is what happens when you get's one of our friends he's one of our good friends so that's why

it's so funny but they can't they come over freeberg and they tap you on the shoulder I'm with my wife she's mortified and the guy hands you a card and the card says you've been warned one time and one time only about abusive you know uh Behavior if we have to warn you one more time you will be escorted out rid so I look at the guy and I say but he goes read the card I read the card I say he goes giv me a thumbs up that was it I never that was it

you're not supposed to then three years later I'm sitting in the same seats I'm interacting with Draymond during the finals games and everybody's hokey doie with it when you say interacting what do you mean when you say interacting wa hold on G Gavin wanted to make a point about what I no I just want to just just come back to chath because for sure these private Equity guys there DCFS the NBA has been terribly managed I think even LeBron said they have a big problem you know and I'd separate the NBA is the worst managed

NFL is probably the best managed but the one kind of CounterPoint I would say on the TV rights is Google bought Sunday Ticket and are extremely happy with it Amazon and Netflix also bought you know both bought NFL games and are really happy with them and so I just think those three companies it doesn't really matter to them if Pharma ads go away in 18 months you're going to be able to dynamically create an ad for each individual person and show it to them and if you're a high value user with a you know that

Google knows that you're about to book a vacation you know they'll dynamically generate you know whatever you know Hotel destinations you want and show click here so I just think Sports as long as they command the eyeballs that they do and I for sure if the NBA doesn't fix it the value of those franchises will start to decline but um just the fact that all of the biggest tech companies are so happy with the sports kind of rights that they bought they're going to buy them all every sport understand Gavin maybe maybe you're closer to

this but why wouldn't Apple Amazon or Google just back up the truck to the NBA and say well take the whole thing and then anybody who's got an iPhone gets the NBA for free and then everybody else has to pay and they figure it out in the back and they lose a you know 5 billion they make two billion who cares it's a rounding error for Apple I agree and they you know I mean they all all except for Apple really and apple they have I think an MLs deal but they all kind of stuck

their toe in the water and I think they feel like wow the water's warm let's dive in um okay yeah and the New Deal is an 11year deal for the NBA so these things don't come up that often but we'll see over time maybe somebody will buy one of these media companies and inherit them okay biggest business loser for 2025 what's your prediction Gavin Baker government service providers you do not you do not want to have the United States government at any level is over 35% of your Revenue good choice yes obviously in the age

of Doge they might not be spending wildly and they might actually look at the bill they might check the bill crazy thought crazy thought yeah crazy thought to actually check the bill you never know chth who do you predict will be the biggest business loser of 2025 well this is a a little bit precarious but I don't know what the percentage draw down from here will be but I think when we look back the absolute dollar draw down of the mag s will be in the trillions of dollars okay and the reason is not necessarily

because of the underlying fundamentals of these companies but I am a little bit worried and I tweeted this a few days ago about just the general concentration of the top seven 8 nine 10 companies in the indices I think it's approaching 40% and I think that when you look at these historic concentrations they've generally foreshadowed a big draw down okay and unfortunately I don't see how you can sort of you know inoculate yourself from that risk so independent of the quality of these companies because I think these companies are exceptional businesses I do think you've

just had too much concentration and I think it it is a setup to retrade and give back and in that it could even be 10% but 10% in the mag 8 will be a couple trillion bucks and so on absolute would be a lot yeah an absolute dollar a lot okay freeberg who do you predict you predict Max 7 government service providers for You Gavin Free who do you predict will be the biggest business loser of 202 I'm sort of on the same vein as Gavin I went with the kind of old defense and Aerospace

providers Boeing loed Martin Ron defense 1.0 driven by kind of China dominance driven by us defense budgets that I think are going to need to shift towards a more kind of tech oriented and Roid driven rationalization and pricing and spend so the Palante and Andals obviously the world will benefit and I also just think like there's a lot of failure at scale with these businesses they've gotten too clunky and too bureaucratic as we've seen with boing from their space program failure in 2024 uh to the challenges with their their airplane business but I think that

this government contracting business across the board is going to be deeply challenged this year with all the new blood so the Cost Plus are going to suffer is what you're saying and the andrs will Thrive would you guys add just a question would you guys add the traditional Consulting companies then to the mix as well like if you that's a good point too that's a great one yeah we think what we talked like the Y Pros the tatas the hcls the accent cogn the Emy all these folks in are in real trouble if that if

that also happens that's right yeah you the efficiency that they'll gain will also be felt by their customers and their customers might not hire them when you got a bunch of software entrepreneurs that are now advising and informing the federal government on how to run their their operations I'm pretty sure that some of these service providers are going to get washed out so it's a good idea the thing to keep in mind is like plus is a fancier way of saying time and materials and time and materials is a fancy way of saying human labor

Arbitrage and I think that all of that stuff will get extremely scrutinized in 2025 because if you are buying you know $800 waste baskets and you know $9,000 uh umbrella hangers because of time and materials and all of this other crazy stuff that's in the system and all of that gets washed out then a lot of these folks in their business models will will get put under severe stress the alignments you know you show me an incentive I'll show you the outcome the alignment of Cost Plus is to just keep being inefficient and and waste

and and these defense contractors are taking 60 70 80% off the price of each piece of Munitions or vehicle yeah Cost Plus is terrible no just cost is terrible that's all all right for my biggest business loser prediction I had to go through a lot of the uh people I've uh criticized on in started fights with over the past year commercial real estate came to mind because these leases are going to keep coming up and I think like they kick the can down the road a little bit so I started there then I looked at

micro strategies and that made no sense to me that they were trading at two three four times the book value of their Bitcoin and I think that's not sustainable I looked at truth social which is like doing four or5 million in revenue and is valued at 7 billion that makes Absol no logical sense but I think the one that is the most overpriced of of all of this and I think is going to see their Peak valuation is open AI I think the headwinds for open AI are being absolutely underappreciated like I said before in

my previous one uh my previous prediction Google is kicking ass xai is just getting started and building out so much big Iron Microsoft was basically on another podcast almost like laughing at open a for selling them the source code and that they didn't even need open AI anymore because they had it all they don't need them and they own all the Big Iron I think open ai's valuation made no sense I don't think they're going to be able to keep charging the prices are charging and I think AWS Apple Google xai this cohort are going

to really take that $57 billion valuation and make it the peak valuation of the company and I do I do think that there's a nonzero chance they could lose their process and these court cases of transferring $157 billion dollar in value from a nonprofit into a for-profit I think that whole thing could blow up is that your super prediction is open AI will not be able to convert from nonprofit to for-profit in 2025 I think that that's a small piece of it but that's a really interesting super prediction insert poly Market graphic here super prediction

will open AI convert is that's a good in 2025 yeah by the way you know they're projecting I think in the the the leaked financials 12 billion Revenue next year jkl so unlike a lot of the other things you were talking about this is a real business with real Revenue real scale real growth real technology it's it's a little bit distinct from kind of being a meme stock or being a exactly that's why I'm picking it because I think it's easy to pick a meme stock it's harder to pick a real company but I do

think think that that Revenue which you know a lot of it is consumer and a lot of it is developers the developers I know all want to do open source they don't want to have to be beholden to open Ai and Sam mman they would much rather and they're already setting their queries across multiple different sacks and trying different ones I don't think there's any loyalty to open AI or gemini or any of these Services I think they'll just go with eventually open source in many cases so anyway that's my thought on open AI 2025

biggest business deal what do you got shth what's your biggest business deal for 2025 prediction shth what do you got you said starlink to go public last year that one yeah totally whiffed on that one I think that this is the year that we will see the collapse of the traditional Auto oems and I think that the the deal that happened at the end of 2024 with Honda Nissan I think is a bit of a signal to what the industry has to do which is to go through a massive wave of consolidation I think that

Tesla is just in an incredible position with the quality of their vehicles and the quality of their software and the qu quality of their autonomy with FSD so I suspect that after a couple of more meaningful product releases it's just going to trigger the realization by the public capital markets that these Auto oems are uninvestable and I think the result of that will be a wave of Auto Mega mergers and for people who don't know Honda and Nissan signed an agreement to merge and Mitsubishi is involved because they're part of I think Nissan's Alliance this

would obviously get rid of all of the redundancy I think this is touch like the European oems are in real trouble you know what does Volkswagen do not clear what does stantis do it's not clear these are all businesses that are effectively melting icebergs and so you know typically melting Iceberg businesses when they get put under pressure from Smart investors like Gavin and and and is ilk they're forced to merge short gav Gavin you got a spread trade are you short these names um I I would rather not talk about specific positions I would just

say I agree 100% with chamath I think there you go they're going to lose their Chinese business because they don't make competitive products anymore if there's not massive protectionism and we're seeing signs that they'll be caught between Tesla and the Chinese oems and I think the only way that this doesn't H chat's the only risk to chat's prediction is just government intervention because they's such big employers and you know often seen as national champions but absent really significant government support they all in deep trouble okay well done freeberg last year you said there'd be some

Blockbuster deals for right holders licensing data for AI training and Reddit did in fact sign two of those so uh a great prediction from you for last year on biggest business deal what do you got this year see if you can go two for two was it just Reddit I should probably look it up what you I'll just follow on my year of the robot theme I do think that there's going to be massive funding deals similar to what we saw this past year for compute buildout I think we're going to see massive funding deals

for Hardware based Manufacturing buildout in the United States and I think that those deals may take the form of kind of traditional Equity from private markets or they may have some component that includes government support to to kind of motivate and drive and accelerate onshore manufacturing we're not going to go in the US to making stuff that is like last century I think we're going to need to move manufacturing to the next decade Next Century of of production and I think that's going to mean making some of these autonomous and robotic type systems that are

going to become really critical for us particularly with China doing this massive ramp up and buildout for both drones and robots and autonomous vehicles so I think we're going to need to kind of onshore a lot of this and so that'll be a big amount of capital that's going to move and so you'll see a bunch of these big Blockbuster deals for Hardware buildout in the US Gavin what do you think to be the biggest business deal in 2025 I think the biggest business deal is that they're going to be deals I think there's you're

going to see a Title Wave of m&a after four years of not being able to get anything done I think there's an enormous amount of pinup demand so kind of Point number one point number two something will happen with Intel and that will be big and hopefully it's good for America and then I do think you will see a lot of these Frontier AI Labs that are independent be quiet you know I thought your points were well taken Jason about you know everything that uh you know Google is bringing to Bear an ex xai owns

their own compute and you guys can choose whichever one of these three you like but the ultimate AI winner will be the one with the lowest cost of infrastructure cost the lowest cost of compute and definitionally you can't be the lowcost provider if you're ring your compute from someone else because of markups yeah because there's a markup if you're buy your compute from Azure or AWS or Google you were at a disadvantage relative to their internal Services over time so the full stack wins great prediction for me last year my prediction was that bite dance

would go public or Tik Tok would get divested or some version of this we are but 18 days away from figuring out if the Supreme Court will do just that my prediction for this year I was looking at all the media companies gentlemen there were so many possibilities there Warner Brothers we talked about Apple and Disney you know couple years ago but I think the age of autonomy is here and I think there is going to be some Partnerships that will happen between Amazon door- Uber Tesla weo and that cohort and I would not be

surprised to see Tesla could buy Uber right now for but 10% of its market cap and weo could spin out and partner with Uber Amazon could buy door Dash fairly easily and with the wrath of KH being over the wrath of lenina con being over Gavin it is possible that Mega deals like these could go through and if a couple of Mega deals go through like this whoever uh you know teams up here could win autonomy delivery food delivery and e-commerce this is a ginormous space and I think listen I don't I haven't spoken to

uh obviously my friend about it but Tesla buying door Dash and Uber or Amazon buying door Dash and Uber could be the greatest service ever created if you wanted to build a super app the only thing I would add and I think dovet tales with what you said and and um friberg's kind of year of the robot is autonomous drones there's a company called zipline which my firm is an investor in fantastic yeah but autonomous drones they really are the best way to deliver almost anything to Suburban America and then I think over time it

will be sorted out so that they could deliver in cities as well so I just think that that might be a little bit of a wild card for some of these delivery services well and Amazon in I believe it's Texas is actually doing these now they've got 60,000 SKS is my understanding already being delivered and they just drop it in your backyard and it's there in 45 minutes I do this like two weeks ago I um you know Matan in China's got this and they they F have food delivery happening with these Dr by the

way um just kind of dovetailing off of this I think the other big deal potential in 2025 just to be very specific is a deal with weo you know weo launched n SF in August 2023 in kind of an open market way Uber and Lyft were 66 and 34% market share at the time and in 15 months in November of 2024 weo is now a 22% market share of rides in SF which is the same as Lyft and Uber is now down to 55 so weo Aid in both Uber and lifts market share by on

the order of 12 points um in just 15 months and now they're launching in LA in Austin all over the country they're already in Phoenix so I think you could see a massive and by the way you know they also just moved the the hardware platform over to a new d new device that supposedly going to bring the capex significantly down for new launches so you'll see much improved roic metrics which means that there's a much kind of more efficient way to use Capital to scale so the system works it is scaling they are opening

up a new markets you could see something happen with weo this year that could either be something like a massive financing an IPO or a merger or acquisition with one of the big right sharing companies I don't know if that makes as much strategic sense as I've thought about it a little bit but I do think you could see a big deal with wayo this company is if you guys have not been in AO uh I think we all talked about this but it's an incredible experience and everyone I know of every age group that

has been for a ride in wh comes out of it saying that is the future this is going to absolutely dominate how I'm going to get around I'm most people say it's slow right now and monotonous and they don't like it but you know because it does take weird routes but that'll be fixed over time obviously tot and uh just in case anybody thinks I'm talking my book here I have exposure to all these almost all these companies in a in a significant way because I believe in the entire space one and a half% of

rides in the US and globally it's less than 1% are done by ride sharing the Tam is going to go to 20% in a very short period of time and it's going to be across the board there's going to be a lot of winners here and to my favorite Uber obviously they have deals with eight people and it's a global market byd produces cars for half the price of any other car manufacturer and they have full self driving and it's pretty darn good from what I understand so this is going to be a global competition

and that means if you want to win that Global competition something like uber and doores weo Amazon byd you're going to see some interesting Partnerships happen very quickly I believe because there's so much at stake all right and final thoughts on biggest business deals I think I maybe have a good one here consolidation in the transportation space okay moving on to 2025 most contrarian belief last year Enterprise value of open AI goes down from chth it roughly doubled but I just picked it as my prediction so I think we're s we're sympatico on uh what

we think long term freeberg you said increased probability of a nuclear weapon being used for the first time since World War II thank the Lord that that didn't happen again this is contrarian beliefs people are going out there I I didn't predict it was gonna happen I just said the probability went up it was it's a tough it's a tough thing to call well this is most contrarian belief I think it's fine Dr Doom strikes again it's all good I picked Apple would become the player in Ai and they did launch Apple intelligence but it

sucks I mean it sucks it's terrible I just bought the Google pixel fold n and the Gemini works perfectly it does everything that Ser is supposed to do if you say please play this song If you say please download this app if you say add this to my calendar it does it and it does it in one or tenth the amount of time that Apple takes and apple gets it wrong every time it's a piece of garbage it's a disgrace disad apple apple intelligence is even worse than co-pilot which is saying something Jason would you

like to announce you B the domain dad.com I own it I'm not selling it right now it it redirects to J Paul Gavin Gavin do you have any idea what word he's even saying when he says that disad disad it's disg graad is what people used to say in Brooklyn for somebody who is disgraceful it is a Italian American slang how do you spell it you don't even know you own the domain you don't even know d i s g r a z i a d disg graad yes and if you type in disg graad

it goes to Jake Paul I bought it when I was watching the Tyson fight it was so disgraceful I was saying to my brother Josh the black bomber this is and he just said disg graad and I just said I wonder if that's available as a domain I'm redirecting disg graad right now Tim Cook to Apple intelligence the website do you guys think Tyson through that that it was part of the deal th% I would love I think somebody said Saudi Arabia was offering to host a remake or or whatever a redo a rematch a

rematch of the fight where the winner would make 50 million and then we'll see what's what and the loser gets zero yes and the loser gets zero this is a good use of the Kingdom's money the people want to know we will all fly out there and do an Allin episode from you guys see this did you see this thing where is it is it Logan Paul is fighting Conor McGregor in India and Conor McGregor is gonna get $250 million what yeah it's like a whole stunt I I think it's boxing and it's meant to

sort of like bring a bunch of tourists into India to show them the country but it's a quarter of a billion dollars to Conor MC how do we get in on this grift freeberg versus Baker poly hoaa versus kakanis oh my gosh we need to get our own celebrity box and who would we do come on keep going I got to drive home let's go come on too much fun this episode chth what's your most contrarian belief prediction for 2025 we're going out on a limb here this is going out in a limb folks don't

judge us the the spicier to take the better here this is where you can go freestyle I think that you're going to see a banking crisis in one of the major Mainline Banks a banking crisis wow there is a it's a small chance it happens but that's a contrar belief okay why Jam why Black Swan well I think if I had to kind of build the the case for this it would be along the following lines if you added up the total indebtedness of pax America which is US Government debt plus corporates plus Mortgage Debt

and you actually sensitize it to rates that are around call it 5% what you quickly realize is on a dollar basis that because the amount of debt that we have has just massively exploded that 5% rates today on 70 odd trillion dollars is actually equivalent to 10% rates 25 or 30 years ago because we only had a fraction of that debt on a dollar basis and so the pain that you feel at 5 or 6% can very quickly Ripple through the economy the way that it did when rates 25 or 30 years ago were 10%

and so I think that when people look at rates they forget the actual total dollar impact because when somebody or collectively when we have to come up with three or four trillion dollars how do you do that and so I think that there is a non-trivial risk I think it's small this is why it's contrarian but I think it's a it's a risk where if you have a marketto market problem if you have a credit default problem amongst the corporates or amongst enough individual consumers what I think that happens more than anything else is that

it triggers a reserve issue and I think that the reserve issue in one of these Mainline Banks I have two that I think are more obvious than others but I don't want to name them okay fair enough I love this contrarian take this is great I think that there's a there's a small but reasonable chance that that happens I love it it's a great great contrarian take small chance but big impact Gavin what do you got well first Gemini deep research to um just ask it to look at the total you know Pax Americana debt

outstanding apply the current Market interest rate to it and then look at that you know interest expense relative to GDP and generate that chart over time that would be a cool chart that would be interesting I don't I I don't I don't disagree with chamath you know any anything is possible and um you know there there could for sure be be a problem at a big bank I don't know that I would say it's likely but you anything is possible my most cont belief so I think that America over the next at some point over

the next four years will print at least one year of greater than 5% GDP growth real GDP growth I think productivity is going to go vertical because of AI and deregulation and I think there could be a world where this is the late 90s and it doesn't sound like a big difference you know five or 6% versus 2 or 3% but it is a massive difference you know at five or 6% you know the economy is doubling you'll call it every 12 years roughly versus 24 years at 3% I mean it's just it's a massive

difference in terms of kind of the wealth of the country and individual Americans as far as a specific prediction for 25 uh because I don't know when when that will happen I think you will see the frontier Labs stop releasing their Leading Edge models to prevent knowledge distillation and their IP effectively being stolen you know seek from China it was really impressive but it thinks it's gp4 you know yeah so I just think you will you'll see the labs keep their best models in house distill them and put small small models out over time fber

do you have a contrarian belief and I did put into Gemini Advanced 1.5 Pro with deep research the question which banks have the great biggest chance of being insolvent or having a financial collapse or crisis so it's doing its research right now it'll be done in about 10 minutes I think which gives you an idea of how much research it does it's nuts freeberg what do you got I think that the the party line is that socialism was defeated in this election cycle and that there was a resounding kind of vote from the American populace

against socialism and I actually think my my contrarian belief is that we'll see a rise a dramatic rise in socialist movements in 2025 in the United States okay and I think that we going to see as Gavin pointed out an acceleration of progress we're going to see an unleashing of economic growth because of deregulation and AI but I do think that some markets we've also talked about the the the the downfall of us autom manufacturing and some other Industries there's going to be a real significant shift in 2025 some Industries and some companies are going

to be huge winners and some companies are going to be huge losers there's going to be some parts of the economy that are going to be big Winners and some parts of the economy that are going to be big losers when you have this sort of a change this fast there are often large contingents of people that are left behind and when that happens I do think that the Socialist policies and the Socialist movements gain steam when um Peron came to power in Argentina in the mid1 1940s that country was experiencing 8% GDP growth to

Gavin's point about accelerating growth growth does not mean that it benefits everyone equally and I think that some folks will see people go from being billionaires to 100 billionaires to the world's first trillionaire and it will also start to fuel this rise so I think that we will see an increase in the breadth and depth of socialist movements in the United States by the way particularly with Doge cutting Government funding to programs that benefit individuals employment being cut in in the federal government and through Federal contractors there's just a lot of Rapid change that's about

to kind of really upset a lot of people I totally agree I think AI you know people are fond of saying that what in a world of AGI or ASI money will be meaningless but for a short period of time money will matter more than it's ever mattered before because the amount of money you can spend on AI on test time compute is going to give you a massive Advantage whether you're a company or an individual so I just think AI is going to really amplify inequality for some period of time yeah I hope I'm

wrong like I hope you know AI leads to you know all sorts of you know opportunities being created for low there's a lot of there's just going to be a lot of employment and income disruption in 2025 and it's going to fuel socialist movements and I think that this is going to be a more difficult Year everyone thinks it's kind of rosy red because we're all working in the tech industry in Silicon Valley but the reality on the ground for most Americans could be a lot harsher than any of us anticipate and that could make

for a very difficult political environment and social environment this is a great contrarian prediction free I would build on it that I don't think this is just going to hit blue collar I seeing in the Venture industry and in entrepreneurs all over the place people who are super qualified who had six figure salaries even to Mid six figure salaries not be able to find work we not find work at previous compensation levels why because people are doing more with less it's much better to invest and do deep research and Ai and automate stuff or deprecate

stuff or delegate stuff to to other regions than to hire Americans in some cases and that philosophy that's happening isn't just going to hit truck drivers it's going to hit developers potentially designers writers what the contrar part of what you guys are saying what's the contrarian part socialism socialism ISM On The Rise I it's pretty interesting because I think you don't think it's contrarian you think it's obvious I think the party line has been that socialism was getting knocked back this year with this it was a mandate against socialism and some of the Socialist policies

that were being put forth and I think that the contrarian view is that we're actually got this really wrong and socialism is going to be on a big rise but just to build on what you said earlier like w wokeism and progressivism will decouple from socialism I think wokeism and progressivism you know will be on a declining Trend but socialism in terms of the government like policy more role yeah yeah why have Universal why don't we have Universal healthare why don't we have prek or you know in every state and and you know these kind

of things I think Americans are right to ask those questions now other behaviors are obviously appor but you do have the right to ask why we can't figure this out and why our government has failed Us in something as basic as you know providing after school programs or universal healthcare or Universal Child Care these things are easy to do and when you see everybody getting rich and and the polarization of wealth I can understand people saying why don't we have these basic things when other countries have them it's a reasonable you're making the assumptive statement

that these things are easy to do which was what was said about education it's like let's give everyone access to college education with the uh the federal student loan programs and what happened was when we introduced those programs those schools started to charge more and the tuition went up every year and eventually the cost of Education inflated away from the benefit you were getting from it and this has happened universally in healthcare it has happened happed in housing it has happened in education it has happened in every Market where the unit states where the government

has stepped in to provide Capital to support that market is that the market basically no longer operates in a free way I appreciate the challenge to it and I'll explain to you why I believe it's easy if you just put this down to the States and you make it more competitive I think you solve the problem if you introduce School vouchers and you create competition if you take universal healthcare and maybe you run some experiments where different states get that money from the federal government and let them run 50 different experiments I think we could

actually solve some of these problems but you're correct anything that the federal government does it eventually becomes corrupt and inefficient my most contrarian belief was open AI loses its lead loses its nonprofit to for-profit transition and becomes the number four player in AI the total collapse of open AI is my most contrarian prediction for 20 that's a good one the total collapse of dble double doubling and tripling down hey man I'm trying to make this spicy it's a spicy category let's do I got got it could still run for president Jal maybe he's great I

don't know everybody who all his friends left the company maybe he's great maybe he's a standup guy I mean everybody quit but maybe he's gav are you are you familiar with J K's prediction that Jeff Bezos is gonna run for president it was that was my I was predicting I wanted him to I wanted him to and he bought Washington Post and he quit the Amazon job and he bought a house in Washington d and he went down to marago don't be surprised if Bezos after he gets through his uh midlife crisis and going to

Coachella and partying and having a great time which he deserves if he comes back and says you know what I want to serve my country I still stand by Washington Post or do you think he's gonna hold on to it well let's stick with that one because that's one prediction Jeff Bezos will sell the Washington Post in 2025 that's a good poly Market yeah sell it to Caren swier sell it to Karen swier run it right into the ground they'll Double Down uh okay best performing asset everybody loves this one best performing asset hey we

can you can put a price on this best performing asset last year chamat did a spread trade he was long public tech stocks short private late stage Tech stock index NASDAQ top 100 Tech stock ETF was up 10% 2024 freeberg you went with your uranium ETF not Uranus uranium ETF and you're a UR are a was down 1% in 2024 I know sideway you know what I I looked at the components of that ETF last week when we were preparing for this it has absolute junk in it like it it was not the right the

right right way to kind of trade uranium but anyway that was my My outcome for the year I went with the on demand economy with Uber Airbnb and door Dash Uber was up 30% but now it's only up 3% with the robo taxi hadwin Airbnb is basically flat and doorish up big 74% shout out to Stanley Tang great job to the team over there so jam get your flowers there let's do our best performing asset let's let our guests go first Gavin what would be the best performing asset of 2025 I think the companies that

make high bandwidth memory going back to we're we're going to run out of compute it's it's um it's actually a pretty shocking stat high band with memory is a bigger part of in cogs on gpus than Taiwan Simi is and today there's two companies that can make it h HX and Micron we'll see if Samsung gets their act together but hbm memory it's in Nvidia gpus AMD gpus Amazon terraniums and particularly in a world of test time compute and inference being so important H been with memory is arguably more important than it ever was and

it's been um it's been sold out for the last two years so high band with memory would be my pick okay good pick great pick in fact what do you got Jam so let me preface this by saying that this is a pick that 92 times out of 100 goes to absolute zero okay and six out of the remaining eight times you make 10 extra money and then the final two times you make anywhere between a 100 to a thousand extra money okay sounds like Bitcoin okay so this is a loser trade okay but I

would be long CDs so what am I buying I am buying insurance I'm buying Insurance using credit default swaps I'm buying what's called protection that there is no default event in 25 again I'm not going to tell you which companies or what maturities but just the general idea for me is I would like a little bit of an insurance policy in 2025 so that the men and the women that we have voted in have the chance to do their work in peace I think that there is a small chance of some volatility next year I

hope it doesn't happen I hope that this trade like I said 92 times out of 100 loses money I hope it loses money but if it hits it will be the best performing asset of 2025 it will be the equivalent of acman buying CDs right at the right at the beginning of the covid crisis how does one buy those you have to have an isda you talk to the big investment Banks and they'll price it out for you but again I and and I just want to be clear this is not something I think will

happen it's not something I want to happen but I do think that if you look back in terms of just the tonnage of dollars you can make and the massive risk asymmetry that it presents to you when you look at the concentration of the S&P when you look at just the total gross amount of debt that we have when you look at rate spiking all of these things say having a little Insurance may not be a bad thing so I hope you're nodding Gavin you're nodding you want to ask no no I was just I

was just thinking I mean if if you know chat's prediction of a bank failure is true you absolutely want to own CDs you I mean you'll you forget 100x you'll a th000 x 10,000x what do you got freeberg so I went with Chinese tech stocks or Chinese Tech ETFs wow I think that the market everyone's kind of dumped Chinese tech stocks over the last couple of years everyone's taken this isolation stance on positioning portfolios and saying hey we can't do business with China it's over but I do think that the Trump Administration particularly with their

recent request on Tik Tok being the ban on Tik Tok being kind of halted they're trying to line up what I would call kind of like the great deal with China so I don't know anything about what they're actually trying to do but I think that Trump and leadership in the US government want to kind of open up the Chinese market to American companies in order to give Chinese companies access to the American market and I think that they're going to get a deal done given the position with China I think that they're very likely

to kind of get a deal done that's one driver I think there's three drivers the second driver is that obviously the cost of build out of electricity production in China is unfathomable they recently approved $1 137 billion hydroelectric Dam facility which is going to add another I think couple hundred gigawatts of electricity production in that country not to mention all the nuclear build that we've talked about in the past so the cost per hours already lower the amount of electricity available is going up and then I think that the Chinese Communist Party have this incredible

ability to throttle up and down free markets and Entrepreneurship and this is a moment where you could kind of see them making the throttle go the way towards enabling more Innovation more free market activity and it's going to be one of the motivators for them to do a deal so when you put all of this together I do think that there's a lot of Chinese tech companies that have been beat up under the assumption that this is going to be a a very difficult conflict with the US in the years ahead and I think that

that may not be the case going into 25 and I think that their these stocks look pretty cheap I was just looking at Alibaba and it trades at a pretty decent multiple it seems like these stocks could be poised for a pretty good run in 25 if the macro works out this feels like a contrarian take I mean Trump I don't think is going to find uh a way to balance the relationship with China very well and I don't think you can rattle up entrepreneurship after you cut everybody's knees out the last time plus I

don't trust any accounting statement coming out of China because they could fudge whatever they want but wow what a great uh potential you know Buy Low sell High the good thing is you'll know if I'm right you'll know if I'm right or wrong in a year you can exactly we'll know exactly that's right pull the ETF absolutely I mean Gaffin what do you think of this hot take here from from Mr freeberg really cheap I've had a I call it a no China guideline ever since the longtop financial fraud more than 15 years ago or

it was just amazing it was you know uh a lot of great investors owned it and you know they they talked a great game and they had a western auditor but then it turned out that the fraud was happening at the local post office where they were opening up the documents that the local Auditors had signed off on changing them and then sending different documents you know you know whatever fedexing them yeah so I just think it's it's a hard place if you're I think if you're not Chinese to make money but I tend to

agree with a a lot of what David said I think Trump and G both want to deal I think there's a deal to be done that leaves Putin out in the cold as I referenced and if that happens Katie bar theor I mean there are really really high quality companies you know that are some of them are mid single digit multiples and there and it's a big market so if if you did get it right and you by the way the Chinese the Chinese companies serve a global market it's not just the US they serve

uh you know Africa South America a mean the whole southern hemisphere Well yeah if you look at byd that it's all over Europe it's yeah it's it's hug look I mean I I mean the the Chinese companies and they have the best unit economics they have the best cost of production I mean everything is advantaged particularly if you believe it's the year of the robot there's going to be a kind of a massive demand around the world for Automation and for rebuilding manufacturing capacity all over the world and I think that China could service those

markets more efficiently than any other kind of country of origin so it's a pretty pretty powerful set of macro drivers as well I think the max 7 is going to be the best performing asset I'm taking the other side chamat I think in an earlier prediction said maybe not so much I think that what they've learned in the last couple years is that there is an incredible earnings expansion you can do by not hiring people and Outsourcing jobs to other parts of the world and automating and the gains we'll see from AI which they're producing

for other companies and for consumers they're applying first internally so the internal application of AI will allow these companies to have earnings growth that people will not be able to comprehend over the next couple of years so I'm going with Max s we got a lot of different takes here going different directions what a great episode so far all right worst performing asset last year chamat said late stage Tech stock index mostly SAS freeberg you put in a brilliant spread trade short vertical SAS long AI Cloud providers SAS has come had a little bit of

a rebound but Google up 36% for AI Cloud Microsoft 14% Amazon 46% all in 2024 I said llm startups like open AI anthropic too many players open sourcing will kill pricing obviously the one valuation we can track is open Ai and it doubled but I do think I'll longterm have that one work worst performing asset of 2025 Gavin Enterprise application software okay this is basically just about like 2025 is going to be I think the year of Agents particularly in the second half agents just being AI models that can take action on your behalf that

can do anything online that a human can do online and if the lab ABS and the big cloud providers dominate agents which seems likely going back to you know the the lowcost producers going to win Enterprise application software I think is going to be in a lot of pain and you know some of these companies are talking a big big game about agents but at the end of the day they don't have their own models they don't own their own compute and I just don't see them being ultimate winners in the world of Agents you

know I could easily I could be wrong because they do you know they they they have some customer data maybe a little bit of a data mode and they do you know have strong customer relationships but you know most companies have relationships with AWS Google or Microsoft as well so I think Enterprise application software will be in pain okay and chth what do you got I think Gavin just absolutely nailed it I'm going to double down on what he said I think that there's a term that that we will start to use more I started

to use it internally at 890 over this last year in 2024 which is the software industrial complex these are these large bloated in many cases enterprise software companies that effectively have convinced incredible numbers of organizations to spend a tremendous amount of money essentially wrapping a bunch of heuristics and business rules around the crud database and along with that what they have perfected really is a go to market and sales motion the golf trips the steak dinners you know we mentioned this before what Alex karp railed against none of those things equate to product value and

increasingly in the world of agentic software and AI I think that you can rebuild a lot of these workflows in very efficient ways M and I think the go to market is going to be driven by CEOs and CFOs Who start to exert a little bit more pressure on their cios to manage spend and in that world I just think that these next Generation AI businesses are built frankly an order of magnitude cheaper than the companies that they compete against and so even if it's just feature for feature the same I think the software industrial

complex these old Mainline traditional enterprise software companies I think you're going to start to see fissures in those businesses in 2025 so I I agree with Gavin different words but same result and you put your time and money where your mouth is on this one 11 months ago you found it 88090 to get 80% the the traction in in less than a year to me is shocking and I don't think it speaks necessarily I I think we're decent we're very good we have great Engineers but my 30% engineer in team I think does the work

of 300 people by next year it'll be doing the work of 3,000 people maybe it will only grow by 10 or 20% so and the reason is we use these tools we're productive to an order of magnitude that I didn't think was possible and as a result we're just able to price it differently so even if it's the exact same product its cost structure is just meaningfully lower and so this is what I mean where the ROI calculators get blown up all of the traditional go to market mod get blown up because in an RFP

or in any other sales environment what you do is somebody says it's $100 and you show up and you say 10 okay and at 10 it's still hugely profitable for you and and just to add just one last thing is just you know fundamentally these Enterprise application software companies the software industrial complex and I agree with everything jamat said you know they're they're fundamentally based on making white collar human employees more efficient and what the AI companies are going to do is just say hey we're just going to replace that worker and it's just a

fundamentally different mentality par shift yeah and it goes to like there may may be a lot of pain that a companies this and you know David's points around the you know potential rise of of socialism what do you got for worst performing asset Mr freeberg 2020 I'm probably just going to Triple underline vertical sass again perc pricing model being challenged pricing being compressed as companies explore inhouse tools built with AI that replaces these kind of traditional business practices be destroyed this is it was an obvious it was an yeah it was an obvious one on

my list but I want to make a different one I want to make a different one how about do you have anything open Ai No open is great all the talented people left but you know I don't know where they are where do all the where are they all the other open AI employees are they on vacation they're skiing too right no they've all started competitors oh right that's what happened correct yeah they all left to compete and have Revenge startups wow that's an interesting Trend okay so consumers make five big decisions in their life

as we all know college still doing 12 billion Revenue I mean well that's that's a projection sometimes meet reality six billion in losses too David against that 12 billion in Revenue yeah six billion this year or six billion next year I think the six is for next year but I yeah I don't know I guess it makes sense why they're trying to charge 200 bucks a month now they got some headwinds okay listen consumers make five big decisions in their life we know college spouse kids are uh the obvious ones and then cars and homes

and the consumer is up against it with record debt so since you can't trade College spouse kids really I think Legacy car companies in real estate are going to face continued headwinds and be terrible assets because listen we've overbuilt in some cases there's tons of cars on lots and people can't afford homes with these mortgages so I think these are going to be the two worst performing asset people in the Legacy oems as chth pointed out in a previous prediction and then I just think real estate is the same if you look at a place

like Texas two years in a row housing values have gone down rent has gone down two years in a row same things happening in other states where they allowed you to build and people are leaving states where they don't allow you to build so that's my worst performing asset trade Enterprise was my other choice but I'll go with something slightly different most anticipated trend for 2025 last year chamath congratulations you said last year that Bitcoin would hit 100K for the first time nailed it half court shot well done I think at the time you made

that prediction it was probably trading at it felt like a layup felt like a layup to you up 112% uh freeberg you said predictive models in AI driven Discovery and farma and bioengineering how did that do that prediction well there was a lot of funding and Demus won the Nobel priz Noel prize there you go so it worked out I picked efficiency in the form of AI advancements in labor and Outsourcing and I've seen that Bunch with our investment in Athena go to Athena w.com okay got my plugin there let's go for most anticipated 2025

Trend what do he got Chim off I think that there are a handful of not to overuse an overuse term but canaries in the coal mine for the end of the deep State and I would like to point to one which is this obscure thing called the supplemental loss ratio and essentially what it is is a mechanism that the banks can use to include or not include treasuries and how they calculate reserves etc etc now why is this an interesting thing it's not interesting for many people it's very Arcane but if we are unable to

manage the debt situation in 2025 I think what you're going going to see is maneuvering at the edges of these Arcane regulations that effectively Kick the Can down the road and there is a chance that that could happen to help the banks because you know we believe that we meaning collectively America that maybe Doge won't be as effective as it needs to be that there's still going to need to be you know 1020 trillion dollars of debt issuance to refinance the 10 that's maturing this year and to plug holes in the coming years my point

in all of this is we don't need to understand the details except that if we don't move the goalpost here it is a great sign that the folks that are running the show are the ones that we all elected okay so that is my most anticipated Trend small Arcane regulatory changes that allow us to Kick the Can down the road stop in its tracks this is an example okay freeberg you got a most anticipated trend for 2025 my most anticipated trend is around the announcement of buildout of nuclear power in the United States in 2025

as a function of deregulation and some new technologies I do think that this new government is going to be U much more accommodating and it's going to as I've said in the past I think it's a necessity just because of the the the rate at which we have to do power build outs to meet kind of competitive demand against China the United States is going to need to add more power electricity production capacity than we can scale up with any other renewable source so I do believe that nuclear is an inevitability I think that the

deregulation will happen in 25 and I do know a lot of very smart people who are actually starting nuclear power companies and have left very good jobs to go and do this in anticipation of this happening in 25 so I'm very bullish that's a leading indicator for sure when smart people do something with their time that's a great indicator Gavin what do you got uh I think Ai and Nick I sent you a chart I don't know if you can Flash it up but um I think AI is going to make more progress per quarter

in 2025 than it did per year in 23 and 24 and the reason is just with um with 01 and 03 this is rcgi it's designed you we keep we keep changing the goalposts for the touring test and AGI and I'm sure we're going to change them again as we're going to blow through this and I just think what has happened is we were scaling around around one on one axis which was pre-training and then we started scaling around in Fritz time compute and it's very clear that we have now added a third axis of

scaling performance and that is reasoning and what this is is these models the internet is composed of answers people giving answers and what the models really benefit from is kind of the internal monologue of somebody getting to that answer and this is you know in in AI terms they call it a reasoning trace and it's one reason you know 18 months ago everybody was like oh wow the more code you train a model on the better it does and all sorts of things that have seemingly nothing to do with code but all code you see

kind of the reasoning the internal monologue the thought process the step by step and so what's happening is you're using models to generate synthetic data that contains these reasoning traces so you ask a model you know solve this problem it has to be a problem that is functionally verifiable that has an answer or we know the answer and we say show your work and we have it do that many many different ways and times and then you pick the best ones and you kind of feed those back into the model you apply some reinforcement learning

to it and so now you're scaling along three axes that are multiplicative with each other and I just I you know a guy on the Google team said tweeted maybe five days ago it's going to be a straight shot to ASI artificial super intelligence and I think that might be right Ilia gave a talk at NPS Ilia Suk um one of kind of the original pioneers of this field and he said something that I thought was scary and he said these models that reason are inherently unpredictable so the best reasoning models in the world today

are the ones that play games the kind of alphago alpha zero style models and they are constantly making unpredictable moves that no human Grandmaster ever could have come up with and now these models are going to be making similarly unpredictable leaps in all sorts of domains which you know hopefully will be awesome but you know might not be yeah well they're going to go around corners that people might not have considered that are non-intuitive and then just to Circle back and do a little call back here remember I asked which banks would have the biggest

chance of being insolvent uh or having Financial collapse or crisis tons of misspellings in there as I typed it while we were talking and you can see what deep M uh deep research did here it went and said here's what we're going to do we're going to research a bunch of websites and find a list of banks in the US find top banks by us by asset for each one of these Banks find their latest Financial savings for each of these Banks find their Capital adequacy ratios for each of these Banks find their loan loss

you get the idea and then it went and it analyzed and then it created a report this took about 10 minutes and when you look it created this final report here where it gave a list chth of JP Morgan Bank of America City Group yada yada it did a an analysis of each one and at the end you can see all the different websites it pulled it was well over a hundred websites that it pulled that's inred live data 162 websites and you have to pay for this but it's only $20 a month and it's

conclusion this analysis has provided a snapshot of the financial health of some of the largest US Banks while all banks face inherent risk City Group in Wells Fargo appear to be the highest risk of insolvency of financial collapse compared to JP mortgage Chase Bank of America Goldman Sachs City groups recent net loss lower c one ratio and high exposure I mean just try looking at this now I don't know how much of this is correct I'm no expert on this but it does seem like it's a pretty good start of where it's getting to and

if you haven't used 1.5 Pro with deep research just go to gemini.com I'm not being paid to say this I just think it's the best product in the market and it's pretty darn impressive okay my most anticipated trend for 2025 was alluded to in an earlier prediction I think by Gavin himself mine is that uh exits and DPI shower down uh and we'll have this incredible uh distribution as the wrath of lenina con ends and m&a and and IPOs will surge that is my prediction my most anticipated Trend okay let's go to most anticipated media

I had two that I was working back and forth from Jame James guns DC Universe with Superman coming out this year I think it's going to be amazing Andor season 2 could be amazing I predict they're going to do a clone wars live action series if you don't know the Clone Wars watch it with your kids it's amazing animated series that takes place during the prequels but I went with a a little of a weird Choice here I think my most anticipated media is seeing what happens with Legacy Media Outlets owned by billionaires Andor people

who no longer want to pick aide Washington Post CNN and LA Times specifically are steering towards the middle and trying to get back to Classic journalism the editors are revolting Karen swisser is upset and uh they're adding some rightwing voices it is going to be popcorn time for everybody so enjoy whatever you want to enjoy Star Wars I got a little Star Wars for you with Andro season 2 I got a little Superman or you can watch the chaos in the editorial newsrooms at Washington Post and LA Times what do you got from most anticipated

media chath it is the enormity of the files that are going to get Declassified and released by the Trump Administration I think it's going to be unbelievably interesting salacious useful good Earnest all all of the above so the JFK files the Epstein FES Diddy files the moon landing who knows what they find across all of these other Fringe quote unquote conspiracy theories that may turn out actually to have some shred of truth but all of that let's call it content for lack of a better word that gets released in 2025 by the Trump Administration I

think will be incredibly interesting what do you got Dave media any anticipated media for you what do you got I'm into AI video games the cost of production comes way down when you use Ai and you can have Dynamic story lines you can have new gameplay Concepts things that don't exist today I think that the creative Talent Plus the technical talent that you typically find at development houses can be kind of Unleashed with tools that have come to come to Market recently we've seen a lot of the generative video stuff but there's also ways structurally

that video games can kind of be rebuilt where the video game engine can run kind of locally it can be generating parameters that can then use an existing rendering engine so you can have entirely new story lines and entirely new kind of plot sequences so I do think that there's going to be a rewrite of video games in the video game industry with the V variety of AI kind of capabilities that are hitting market now and uh it's going to be incredible it's going to be incredible entertainment people are GNA people that don't play video

games are going to find stuff that they're going to love Gavin most anticipating media 2025 unquestioned 1923 season 2 I'm normally a science fiction kind of fantasy or you spy kind of guy when it comes to TV but 1883 and 1923 were the first TV shows that kind of hit me the way Game of Thrones did and I'm crazy excited for that to come out fantastic are you watching land man I'm enjoying landman with I haven't watched it yet I'm excited to try it it's quite fun quite fun turns out this guy Taylor sharidan he's

I mean it's incredible he's in the zone I highly Rec Day of the Jackal I know chamath also loved Day of the Jackal oh that was really good that was really was a good that was a good J Sugg for stre yeah I'm Jackal sakario yeah absolutely what was our predictions for for this last year last year shth predicted Mr Beast freeberg AI generated news I predicted Gladiator 2 and the three body problem Gladiator 2 was mid but okay three body problem I didn't finish so I guess mid Jimmy show on Amazon Prime the Mr

Beast thing was the top unscripted drama in 140 of 180 countries wow incredible all right we're going to do our prediction markets here I'm going to put up a prediction Market which is based upon immigration and the promise that Trump made to have 15 million people be deported from the country I think in the first year I'm going to set the over under at 5% of that stated number which is 750,000 so after one year in office will Trump have deported 750,000 less or more that's my first prediction how are you going to measure that

you have to there has to be like a a source of truth on these things right well do it based on the White House's reporting of deportations yeah it's reasonable and we'll check with the poly Market team if there's a way to do that prediction Market obviously but I think that was the biggest issue of the election so I'm putting it up there with just 5% in the first year yeah it is interesting Obama deported I think more than two million people it's like people have forgotten but he was actually really really tough on the

border yeah chamat do you have a prediction Market you want to put up the magate representation in the S&P 500 shrinks below 30% oh that's a good one that's a good one so dispersion would happen to the other stocks less concentration that's a good one so we'll finalize these you'll be able to I wanted to kind of play with was Microsoft AWS and Google Cloud Revenue growth who's going to win in growth in 2025 I don't know how closely you guys crack but um I get a sense that Google is kind of accelerating ahead Gavin

I don't know how much you've SP I mean Google is I wouldn't say they're a lot smaller which makes it easier for them to grow faster yeah [Music] um we talk about yeah I mean I I guess um who has the largest gain dollar dollar gain in Revenue in Cloud Revenue in 2025 is it Google Amazon or Microsoft well it probably won't be Google because if they had the largest dollar gain it would mean they were growing at at insane rates but I think Azure versus AWS will be interesting oh I know the other one

I want you do which was the national debt the national debt has grown about two trillion per year in each of the previous two presidential administrations right so over the last eight years we've gone up over 16 trillion two trillion per year average so I'm going to set it at and Trump said he would not increase the national debt I'll just set it at the national debt increases 1 trillion in the next year over under is that a good prediction Market or is it should be two trillion um yeah so what I would do is

I would set the Federal debt for December the US Treasury Market report on federal debt in 2025 and I would set it at 30 37 trillion and so you basically the US Treasury um market report 20 December 2025 above or below 37 trillion it's going to be above I mean let's just call it 38 trillion then yeah you want to basically in order to make this when you set a line Dave it's got to be one where people take either side of it it can't be everybody takes we'll we'll do the US Treasury Market market

report December 2025 federal debt above 38 trillion or below 38 trillion perfect which would be how much added in the year about one and a half yeah I love that I love that that's a perfect one we'll see if he can make any he can control the spending or if it'll just be the same Gavin what's your sense on federal debt next year I think like most things it'll take like immigration will'll take up time to get going yeah it just it's going to take a little bit of time but I think they will make

progress by the way at some point if I'm here on the Allin again I want to talk about UFOs and the drones let's talk about it now do it right now are you going full conspiracy theorist are you are you trying to get your seat here by being a little more Alex Jones do you believe those drones were aliens what's going on so I don't know and I think it's very clear if you look at all the um you know statements from the New Jersey Mayors and governors you know who've met with the police the

FBI the defense department that they don't know now you know Trump said someone in the government knows what they are he also said he was not going to go to Bedminster anytime soon his Resort there I just think over the last I'd say eight years every 18 months there's a big story in the New York Times the Washington posts the New Yorker the Atlantic very credible media sources with dozens of interviews with fighter pilots and commercial pilots talking about seeing things with Advanced sensors that made no sense to them and there's kind of a taboo

that went away there was an article in the New Yorker where they quoted from a bunch of people who were at you know kind of the the Skunk Works Laboratories in the 1950s and said they absolutely saw extraterrestrial materials that have been recovered from a crash it's one reason the US made such big leaps in Material Science and um you know there was Mona thing where essentially a lot of you know astronomist said hey this is this is clearly a UFO of some sort including the head of astronomy at Harvard and then just the conspiracy

theory I would have is if if if if if these are actually UFOs and not you know government drones either from the United States or China you know it seems like the most likely explanation in New Jersey is at some sort of a drill and obviously once this hysteria gets going people um you know misidentify commercial airplanes as drones and like why would UFOs have blinking green and red lights but it is just interesting that there was you know a big concentration of these reports as we were scaling into nuclear technology 1945 to 1960 and

then now that AI is getting going which is the next kind of technological phase shift for Humanity there's another big b of reports you can come back come back next week you you won congratulations we have our winner for all in Idol Gavin is now the fourth best I love this kind of conspiracy but I mean come on I we how do we make a poly Market out of this freed I don't know we are there are there documents that you think Trump will release about the past in terms if UFOs there must be just

an entire spectrum of stuff that that could be subject to Foya if we went after it no yeah I mean I think it depends how deeply it's classified and you know I'm sure if the government doesn't want to give it up um they won't give it up but you know there's all the you know there's all but you think but look let's be honest you think that there are docks like there there's documentation that the US government has that there are UFOs that there have been we just can't explain it yeah and you know they

they call it uaps now to make it you know not flying saucers but it just feels like something F what percentage chance do you put on we have actual knowledge on a percentage basis what percentage chance you put on the government US government is sitting on knowledge of extral 20% at least 20% from chath what do you say gav I would say 25 I would take the over on the 20 okay great so you think there's a a non a significant small chance that this is the case free ber sultant of science what chance do

you think there is this government sitting on some extraterrestrial life or proof of it it's a longer conversation I don't have time for this but I I gotta be honest I don't um I I don't generally align with the idea that like our very narrow range of like understanding of technology and biology kind of is what visits us or would visit us I think that there's an extension of information gathering that doesn't require moving physical biological life forms from one part of the galaxy to another so I think that the whole premise of like UFOs

moving bodies around is rooted in the current state of Technology of humanity which is the basis of Arthur Clark's treatment of 2001 A Space Odyssey not which was done before the screenplay which was done before the book and the treatment which you can buy I think highlights this the best which is eventually every civilization reaches a sufficiently advanced level of technology that you no longer need to physically move the bodies of the the biological organisms around that you simply are gathering information and affecting information because once you have the ability to convert any molecule into

any other molecule and you have access to sufficient energy which you will eventually evolve to be able to do you can basically turn your local part of the universe into anything you want it to turn into and then you're simply gathering information from all over the rest of the universe so I would argue that there doesn't really make a lot of basic sense in why alien bodies would want to move around the Galaxy I'm just saying it right now if Trump releases information on extraterrestrial life I voting for him to have a third ter I'm

putting it out there I'm going full Maga he gets a third term for me with changing the Constitution this has been another amazing episode of the all in one last question for Gavin one oh well forg okay do you think extraterrestrial life built the pyramids is that the most plausible explanation to the accuracy I don't know it is it is so strange the way there are you know in so many I would say cultures all over the world pre you know we are closer in time to Cleopatra than she was to the time of the

Great Pyramids like there was a long time ago but it's just weird that in so many cultures all over the world there are these depictions of what looked like astronauts and then there's all these Renaissance Era paintings that clearly show what we would call UFOs in the Skies over cities so I don't know I just think it's I'm with you I love conspiracy Gavin this has been if you're if you're Jason if you're a questioning person these things create these weird un you know open Loops that it's like hard simulation so fully I'm fully vested

in this anyway Free's got to drive back free BG's driving home I think the pyramids the best most credible thing I saw on the pyramids was that they used water and they raised water in channels so they put them on wood slats or something and then they would raise like um in like the um Panama Canal they would do canals and Float them up and then place them and then release the water which you know sounds great to me this has been another amazing episode of the Allin podcast and thank you to everybody let's have

an amazing 2025 to everybody all kick let's kick ass 2025 let's take all we'll see you all next time byebye bye bye let your winners ride Rainman David and in said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it love queen of [Music] besties [Music] are my dog taking your driveway man oh man myit will meet me we should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all this useless it's like this like sexual tension that they just need to release somehow we need to

get mer [Music] I'm going all in