Mapping Bitcoin's Quantum Wave: A Blueprint For Global Adoption w/ Mark Moss

in order to understand where we're going let's just jump and look into the future for a second let's imagine that we're in the year 2050 Bitcoin isn't priced in dollars Euros Yen or Don anymore because at this point these currencies don't matter global trade is now happening in Satoshi Sovereign nations are now settling in Bitcoin and your wealth is denominated in Bitcoin at this time one Bitcoin equals one Bitcoin and the world has changed it's thriving because of Bitcoin now now this isn't some wild fantasy this isn't some speculation what I'm going to break down for you right now is I'm going to show you how this same historical pattern has happened five times over the last 300 years and it's a repeatable pattern a predictable pattern that gives us a blueprint to follow along all right now this happens on a predictable 50-year time frame this what I call a Quantum Leap now this is a point when technology changes the rules of the game it changes the way that we work interact and live in the world and the rules change the balance of power has shifted forever and the way that we view the world we interact in the world has changed now as I said this happens on a 50-year time frame since we had the birth of the Industrial Revolution in the mid 1700s each one of these represents a time when the entire world completely changes what I'm calling a Quantum shift we had the Industrial Revolution about 50 years later we had steam engines and Railways about 50 years later we had steel heavy equipment we had electricity about 50 years later we had automobiles oil oil fuels mass production about 50 years later we had the birth of the microprocessor which brought birth to the Telecom the personal computer and the internet now one thing to keep in mind with this is that this is not about one new technology this is about a cluster of technologies that come together to give us a new set of building blocks to build things that we can't even imag imagine today humans are no good at imagine the future cuz all we can do is imagine a better version of what we have but when we get the new sets of building blocks we build things we can't even understand now in addition to and and now we're going into what I'm calling the six Revolution this is the sixth time we've seen this cycle repeat in what I'm calling the decentralized revolution now it's not just that the world completely changes from the technology which of course it does but it drives all finan Cal markets the only place to invest for the last 50 years has been the internet and personal computers and Telecom and before that it was Ford and GM and GM before that it was oil and it was steel each one of these Cycles represents a new set of generational wealth and each one of us right now are sitting at this point where we have the ability to create generational wealth as this cycle unfolds now as I said this each one of these Cycles that's happened five times now we're on the sixth has a repeatable process and it's broken down into four stages now the first stage is what we call the eruption phase now we have the big bang which is where the new invention came and there's a lot of excitement about it and there's some people who like to Tinker the Nerds maybe they like to play with it and we have this eruption that happens in this big bang now it's worth noting that this is because the previous 50-year cycle is starting to die out we'll come back to that in a second so the pre previous cycle starts to die out and we have a new bang the big bang that takes off now this is the eruption or the emergence of this 50-year cycle the second phase I went ahead and put a green line here shows sort of where I believe we are right now which is the frenzy phase now this is about speculation in this phase this is the emergence of this cycle then we go to phase three which is the Synergy phase this is really where we start to see integration of these new technologies into society and then finally we have the fourth phase which is maturity this is where the global standardization happens and the next great surge begins so now you have sort of like a little bit of a framework of what I'm talking about and the old system that we have dying are these centralized systems and so the last cycle which we talked about Telecom personal computers internet has started to Die the internet has lots of problems lots of centralization and so now we have a decentralized wave that's starting to take off giving us a new set of protocols for money for communication and other things like that this is why I'm calling it The decentralized Revolution now each of these four phases as I said are very predictable and we can map out this decentralized Revolution and we can overlay Bitcoin perfectly to this so it gives us a perfect example and we'll break down exactly where we'll be in 2050 as I framed in the beginning this is not some hypothetical fantasy that of course we're all dreaming and believing in but instead history shows us this is what the reality will be all right now what's one more thing I want to Overlay is it also overlays perfectly with money if you go back through thousands of years of monetary history you'll understand that money as we know it is both evolutionary and emergent so it goes through four phases anybody read safe's book the Bitcoin standard you might understand some of this so we've had lots of forms of money from feathers rocks and seashells and eventually gold emerged and it goes from a collectible phase oh look at this cool rock look at this cool feather this cool seashell let's collect it now some things obviously not all of them some Collectibles could emerge could evolve to the next stage which becomes of store value now in this store of value phase we see this today lots of wealthy people store their value in Collectibles Fine Art old cars paintings Pokemon cards baseball cards whatever that may be now if some of these store value assets have the right qualities most of them don't to be money then it could potentially emerge evolve to the final the next stage of medium exchange now it has to be portable divisible durable recognizable Etc am Mona Lisa could not make a medium exchange because of course you can't divide it a cow could be divided but it's not fungible parts for parts so if we have the right attributes we can go to the medium exchange and then ultimately if we've met all of these levels we could go to the unit of account so this overlays perfectly with technology so we're witnessing all of this at one time so let's just break down let's jump into the past real quick let's just recap where we're at phase one which is eruption this is from 2010 to 2020 we're going to go pretty quick through this so in this phase again this really is represented by retail adoption all right in this first phase it's defined by the same challenges though as every other one of these Revolutions in history which is the technology is limited by scalability all right when automobiles were introduced for example within 3 years there's 250 manufacturers but they couldn't scale there was no roads no gas stations no tires the internet was out for over 20 years by the year 2000 after the do com boom less than 10% of people had bought anything online because the internet was too slow and it couldn't scale the same thing we saw with Bitcoin it was hampered with scaling Solutions which is exactly what's supposed to happen in the first phase which led to other things like altcoins but we'll get back to that in a second now this overlaps perfectly with money so in this first phase 10 2010 to 2020 Bitcoin is in this collectible phase now we can see some illustrations of this we had uh famous llo spending 10,000 Bitcoin on a pizza back in 2010 so this Bitcoin this collectible what is it let's see what we can do with it would anybody trade me one collectible for another how about some pizzas uh it was a groundbreaking experiment of of course it was a very expensive pizza looking back in it but remember each one of these Cycles is held back by scaling and so in this scaling then we had this experimentation into this altcoin boom well let's make ones that are faster and cheaper and more private and now this really culminated into 2017 with the Block siiz Wars there's a book broken down on this but this is one piece that's always there present it was a necessary step now I believe that this collectible phase really headed in 2020 and we can see where this really took a blowoff top with nfts the ultimate collectible the nft market exploded in 2020 growing 300% over $250 million in transactions 97% of wallets were using them but by 2021 it got to 41 billion as you can see by 2022 it completely fell off a cliff trading volume dropped 97% and today reports are that 99% of nft projects are dead so the collectible phase was a necessary step but it's not the future now we can see that going into phase two which is then the store value phase the seeds were already planted early on we saw early back in 2013 Venture Capital fund adderson Horwitz already started to um invest into Bitcoin startups trying to help build that next stage we saw 2017 C and CME started doing Futures that was really the first time we started seeing institutional uh adoption coming in for the store value 2018 Fidelity started planting the seeds to get um other institutions in as well and so that's where it phased now looking at some of the prices we can see in 2010 these on the left are store of value assets Jeff boo was up here earlier showing store of value assets so these are assets that we store our wealth in obviously real estate gold Collectibles equities real estate now if we go back gold was only a $5 trillion asset in 2010 by 2020 it was 11. 5 trillion real estate was about 180 trillion by 2020 it was 326 trillion growing at a 6% ARR now during this time all store value assets went up by about 8% ARR Bitcoin went up 4,426 per. it was amazing time amazing time to be in Bitcoin during that time we can see that Bitcoin went from about 30 cents for a Bitcoin to $28,000 again an ARR of 40 4,426 now during this time Bitcoin by 2020 took about 0% of store value assets not even a blip not even a drop in the bucket okay now let's get into some of this future okay now phase two is what we call the frenzy phase and this is where we're at today all right this is going to be unlike anything we've ever seen and no matter how bullish you are you're not bullish enough now this is where Bitcoin evolves from the collectible phase and cements itself as the premere store value all right so what we can see is we're in this institutional frenzy phase and we're starting to see institutional adoption come in and now of course here we are talking about Sovereign adoption that both happen in this phase now this Maps again in in the evolution of money and we'll complete the store value phase we'll get to the medium exchange phase next but this is where we're at today now again not all collectibles make it to this next level but Bitcoin will now I do want to point out real quick for every body who thinks that they're too late that maybe they missed it using an s-curve Dynamic is how we'll look at technology adoption now one way we can look at this S curve is that the the time it takes to go from 0 to 10% is the time it takes to go from 10 to 90% And the reason why I want to show you this is because it illustrates that the size of this move we're going into now is much larger sure today Bitcoin is about a $2 trillion Us doll market cap hundreds of billions of dollars have gone into it and now we're about to see trillions of dollars come into it the size and speed of the move is much bigger so you haven't missed anything it's just getting started now at this point we can see this total store of eye assets you can see Bitcoin down here on the bottom right sitting today at about 2 trillion and it's still just a little blip on the road right here a drop in the bucket now how much bigger is it going to get well I got a bunch more charts to show you so don't worry but really right now this is the friend this is the institutional phase we can see that right now today about 60 companies have already started adopting Bitcoin on their balance sheet and this is happening every day we see new announcements of this happening this chart the big chart here shows the real institutional adoption we have Micro strategy adding about a billion doar a week I just saw before I went on stage Riot just added about half a billion dollars of debt to buy Bitcoin we have or Marathon uh doing a billion dollars and right now this is showing us that about 13 half half% of all Bitcoin is now being held by institutions of course it is Bitcoin was always coming for everybody and this is part of the second stage now it's not just institutions it's also Sovereign adoption we have Sovereign fomo we have of course El Salvador sort of with this first mover Advantage Brazil just introducing bills to build a strategic reserve of course the United States has their Bitcoin Bill going through now per poly Market I looked earlier today it's about a 25% chance chance of going through I think that's way too low I think it's going to be much higher Now history shows us what happens when sovereigns start competing history shows us a lot of things so for example in the 1800s the entire world decided to go to a gold standard some parts of the world like China didn't want to the gold standard they had silver they wanted to stay with silver and they lost their position as a world leader we saw the 1950s the race for its space we saw the race for nuclear weapons when Nations start competing things really take off so we have a precedent for where this is going but why why are the institutions foming in racing into a new asset well because they see what we all should see they see that there is no end to the monetary debasement that's coming and they're all looking for a way to protect themselves what we have right here is that we can see the bottom right is the US Federal reserves balance sheet which has been expanding by 133% a year over the last four years we can see the money supply has been averaging over 85% over the last four years and there's no end in sight how do we know there's no end in sight well besides the fact that they're in a debt-based monetary system that always has to grow the government actually tells us that we can look at the CBO Congressional budget office and we can see that they are projecting through 254 the next 30 years for us and they show us that the deficit spending is going going to get bigger and bigger and bigger they show us that the debt levels are going to go up like a hockey stick and they also show us that population growth on the top right is going to plummet as the GDP goes down at the same time population growth going down GDP going down means debt levels go up now they also show us the budget through 2054 30 years from now and there's no recession in sight they don't expect any dip in the revenue coming in so where does all this come from money printing now of course this is what they tell us for the next 30 years when you look at the population Decline and the GDP decline I think this is way understated but for the purpose of what we're doing we're going to use these numbers and project it out into the future so in this phase from 2020 to 2030 using the numbers that we have from the last four to 5 years we can project out the money supply growth at 8% continuing bonds going up 5% real estate and equities which are basically perfect proxies for monetary debasement going up at 8% Bitcoin maybe averaging finishing the decade at about a 53% we're at about 60% right now that would put Bitcoin at a 21 trillion market cap $1 million per Bitcoin in the next 5 years or a 10x from right here now this may sound like a big number but if we look at it Bitcoin is only capturing 1.

5% of total store value assets at the point now if it was able to get 5% which might be way more reasonable that puts Bitcoin at a $3 million price per Bitcoin so I believe 1 million is extremely bearish and not bullish at all now let's just keep going if we look at it as a percentage of store value assets just so you can visually see it a little bit better you can see that now Bitcoin is about on par with gold maybe it's overtaken it's flipped Gold by this time now it's one point that I want to bring out right here real quickly is a lot of people think that for Bitcoin to be worth 1 million or 5 million or 20 million well the dollar is worthless right at that point the dollar doesn't buy anything no that's absolutely not right you see Bitcoin is disrupting other assets I have a venture fund called the Bitcoin opportunity fund as a venture investor we look at a disruptive technology we look at the size of the markets it's disrupting and then we speculate as to what percentage we think we could take from those other markets so Bitcoin is taking from bonds it's taking from Real Estate it's taking from equity the dollar doesn't have to die sure gas goes from $4 to $8 it doesn't mean it goes to zero now is that realistic to get 1% well we can look at other disruptive Technologies like Uber or Airbnb both of them were able to capture 10% of their Market in less than 10 years 1 and a half% is extremely conservative all right now let's start going into the future and I'm running out of time so I'm going to start talking even faster all right now we're getting into to What's called the deployment phase this is 2030 to 2040 now this is where things start getting really exciting but warning I have to leave some historical numbers behind and I got to start using my crystal ball my crystal ball is a little fuzzy so so forgive me we may have to kind of fudge through this a little bit all right this is the adoption and the Synergy phase now this is where things start getting really exciting we start to see adoption now some interesting things about adoption is a lot of Bitcoin critics want to tell you that bitcoin's already failed it hasn't achieved any adoption why is it in a medium of exchange they tell you why can't I just go to the store anywhere and spend my Bitcoin they ask well I'll tell you why because history gives us a framework and tells us that it doesn't come until the next phase and anyone who's expecting that right now doesn't understand technological revolutions they don't understand monetary history they don't understand that there's this evolutionary and emerging process that we have to to go through and what they also fail to understand is that even though Satoshi called an electronic cash system they say it's failed because it's only a store of value they failed to understand monetary history and something specifically called gresham's law anybody ever heard of gresham's law if you read Bitcoin standard you probably do gresham's law says that bad money drives out good bad money drives out good so what that means is we're always going to want to use the bad money not the good money money as long as I can use fiat currency to buy my buy my lunch buy my drink at the bar I'm going to use the fiat currency and I'm going to save the good money which is the Bitcoin why would I spend the good money now we have a perfect way to understand this in the United States of course we have coins and we have quarters and dimes a quarter is a quarter of a dollar now up till 1965 these were made out of pure silver started in 1965 they made them with junk metal that's nicker nickel and copper you cannot find in America a pre-65 quor diamond circulation they're all gone they were driven out if you just so happened to get some change and you found a pre-65 quarter and dime you would not spend it why because a quarter now is worth $4 but You' only get 25 cents for it the bad money the worthless quarters and dimes have driven out the good ones you wouldn't spend those and so it's a perfect illustration now why would we then use Bitcoin as a medium exchange well we would only use Bitcoin as a medium exchange if it could do something that the existing money the Fiat system could not be used for now we can use this as another example gold collectors buy bags of what's called Junk silver they buy bags of these pre-65 quarters and dimes why do they buy them instead of bars because they believe that at some point the Fiat system crash crashes and they're going to need the quarters and dimes in small denominations to barter with they believe in a world where the other money the Fiat money no longer works and they would need that money which illustrates the point so then we ask ourselves well what would we need Bitcoin for that Fiat would be no good for certainly not to buy the drink at the bar works fine for that my plane ticket make my house payment so what kinds of things well we look at the unique utility abilities of what Bitcoin can do it's fast and cheap it's borderless it's permissionless it's censorship resistant it's immutable so if we need to do those types of things then we might want to use Bitcoin well certainly I guess in authoritarian regimes maybe North Korea Afghanistan where they censor transactions maybe we could do it there but where I think the real use case comes and it's coming really fast and we're talking about right now is the ability to do microtransactions that are both fast and cheap now what type of microtransactions being done fast and cheap in a borderless way in a permissionless way would be looking at well anybody heard of the rise of AI more specifically AI agents now ai agents are the ability to build an AI bot to be autonomous and go do tasks transactions and maybe even build entire businesses by hiring other agents autonomously now these AI agents are growing rapidly and and I'm talking rapidly every single week they're advancing within the next couple of years they will be completely taken over as a matter of fact we can see that by 2040 they're expected to grow by over 40% compounded annual growth rate and these AI agents can't have a bank account because they're not a person they can't pass kyc but they can have a Bitcoin wallet these AI agents can hire other AI agents and pay them microtransactions why micro how much does it cost to hire an a agent the cost of power and compute how many times will they need to transact hundreds maybe thousands of times a day and fiat currency won't work for this and this is all coming really fast and I'm talking in the next couple of years this is where Bitcoin becomes indispensable it enables in a new era of autonomous collaboration now this isn't just me saying it if you haven't been paying attention it's all over but Elon Musk says that by 2030 robots and autonomous systems will dominate the 2030s he says that they're going to over take humans you'll be able to buy these things for $20,000 everyone's going to have them autonomous taxis autonomous robots and they'll all be running off of Bitcoin it'll be their economic backbone where Fiat Fells microtransactions High fees the need for permission that's where Bitcoin will Thrive just like electricity transformed cities Bitcoin and AI together are going to power the next great economic Revolution now in this phase from 203 to 240 where we get the deployment Bitcoin goes from a 21 trillion market cap to almost a $300 trillion market cap now we're not talking about 4,000% compounded down to a growth rate like or ar like we saw in the past we're talking more of a modest 30% if real estate and equities are still going up by eight if the money supply is expanding more than that Bitcoin is going to be at least doing 30% which takes it from 21 trillion to 300 trillion or puts it at about a four $14 million price per Bitcoin now by then Bitcoin would be worth like I said 14 million is going to dominate the global store of asset St value stage and if we look at this visually we can see that it's now taking over collectibles in gold and it's now catching up to the money supply still a little bit behind equities but it's catching on quick my time's up can I get a couple more minutes to go through a few more slides okay you guys want to see where we're at in 2050 all right I thought I had 30 minutes but they didn't give me 30 all right we'll get through these we'll get through these last couple slides quick all right here we are phase four now this is the maturity phase this is covering again 2040 to 2050 and this is where Bitcoin evolves Beyond just a financial asset this is where it becomes something even bigger so let me go back to my crystal ball one more time see what we got okay so we're in the maturity phase and the maturity phase is where Bitcoin finally becomes a unit of account the this is where as we've seen throughout history using this repeatable framework we've evolved to the final stage of a unit of account now this Maps over perfectly by this phase uh Bitcoin achieves this role as this Global uni of account and we start to see things that we haven't seen before so for example in this maturity phase we start to realize that life's getting easier life's not getting more expensive life's getting easier life's getting cheaper I have to work less to achieve the same lifestyle I had before so for example in 2016 homes cost on average United States $288,000 thank you uhoh fire alarm censorship censorship cutting you off all right so in in 2016 the the US median home was $288,000 or 664 Bitcoin today the median home has gone from 288 to 434,000 but it's only four Bitcoin life is getting easier Bitcoin flips to script on that but it's not just homes we can see all Financial assets oil gold the S&P 500 in The Last 5 Years have dropped almost 90% when priced in Bitcoin terms and it's not just Financial assets agriculture eggs cheese beef wheat Lumber everything that we need to live dropping by 90% priced in Bitcoin this is what a Bitcoin denominated world looks like it's not just about cheaper Goods it's about a world where life gets easier easier for us it's about where your money works for you now imagine a world where your money gets stronger every year imagine a world where your money buys you more goods and services in the future instead of less a world where actually we're seeing Innovation Thrive and again life getting easier and not harder now under this Bitcoin standard we can actually start to see the reality of AI and Robotics and energy all working together to reduce the cost and expand access creating massive amounts of abundance now this is in a Bitcoin denominated world as Jeff Booth laid out earlier this cannot happen in a Fiat world the systems are incompatible the only way we achieve this is with Bitcoin and of course everybody wants this now in this phase the maturity phase I'm predicting again using what the Congressional budget office has shown us through 2054 that the money printing continues Global store of assets have gone from 3. 5 quadrillion doll to $8. 5 quadrillion which sounds absolutely crazy but again my parents bought a home for $40,000 I mean that's how crazy this world is now money is still there bonds are still there real estate equities Collectibles gold all of those things are there Bitcoin is now slowed down to about a 20% ARR we're not talking crazy numbers we're not talking 4,000% ARR and Bitcoin has gone from a 289 trillion to now A 1 .

8 quadrillion asset class divide that by the 21 million and we are talking $85 million per Bitcoin and again this doesn't mean the dollar is worthless this doesn't mean that dollars are no longer here this just means that Bitcoin has captured value from all the other asset classes Bitcoin is now the second largest asset in the World Behind real estate and yes it's pulled a lot of value from Real Estate but we still you know turns out need places to live still need warehouses for our stuff buildings to meet in turns out we still need real estate but it has pulled value from Real Estate as well as every other asset that's out there it's it's become the denominator and at this point the world has decided that we should no longer use the denominator of fiat currency and at this point Bitcoin has reached its full and final stage which is stage five and has become the global unit of account at this point you no longer measure your wealth in Fiat you measure your wealth in Bitcoin and at this point one Bitcoin equals one Bitcoin now at that point this is going to sound crazy but hopefully I've built this foundation for you at that point we're talking 8 and a half trillion dollar of global store value assets just using the fed's CBO the cbo's projections of money Printing and a basic historical growth rate 8 and a half 8.