Decoding Putin and Xi's blueprint for a new world order | DW Analysis

In the Kremlin, an important guest has arrived. The supreme leader of a rising superpower  … here to see an angry Tsar at war. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin… showing the  world… that China and Russia … are together.

Their militaries work together. Their economies work together. Their diplomats work together.

And despite Russia’s war on Ukraine  and all the turmoil it’s causing, China is doubling down on this relationship. Check out what Xi said to Putin as he left the Kremlin, speaking through his translator… “Right now there are changes – the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years – and we  are the ones driving these changes together. ” A year after Putin went to war, this  sounded like two men on a mission to reshape the world.

But what is that mission?  And what does it mean for the rest of us? In part one of this video we’ll explore how China  and Russia have become so closely intertwined.

“This is just a natural match made in heaven. " “70% of China's energy depends on imports. And Russia can really help in  a big way with those imports.

” “China's military has benefited  tremendously from Russian military imports. ” In part two we examine the mission  that’s binding them even closer together “Xi Jinping really views Vladimir Putin as a - as  a crucial partner in weakening the United States. ” “Russia is a very useful and important asset  and partner in this long term struggle.

It's increasingly the emperor and the Tsar. ” “Both China and Russia felt a lot of similar sentiment that they have been  forced by the US to stick together. ” And in part three we’ll look to the future… And  wherever we look, we see the spectre of conflict.

For the American-led Western powers. “China and Russia could combine their war plans and created an extremely effective  force for targeting United States. ” “The question is whether we have to plan - in  the event that we had a war with China - that China and Russia would be working together.

” For the rising power of India - friend of Russia but threatened by China… and  growing acutely aware of the dangers… “The realities of conventional war, I  mean, it's not something of the past. It can still happen… That is something  we need to be preparing for now. ” And we explore the implications for the  Ukraine war.

The stakes are high for everyone… and the endgame is very far from clear.  “Imagine that Russia does a large exercise or escalates in Ukraine at the time where China wants  to make a move on Taiwan. I think that would put a lot of US defense planners into a tough spot.

” “The whole mankind is at a crossroad, war or peace. We may, we may end up  going back to the Stone Age and – you know -- very, very dangerous. ”  One thing that’s striking right now is just how many leaders say we are approaching  a decisive time in the world.

Xi Jinping calls it a crossroads… Joe Biden talks about  an inflection point… Here in Germany Olaf Scholz calls it a watershed moment. Whatever the  term you use, it’s a time fraught with danger. And central to what happens next - is the  relationship between China and Russia.

Wargames in Russia’s Far East. The Vostok exercises bring together a host of Russia’s friends. Chief among the guests is China.

This is just the latest in a run of drills  between Russia and China – and other partners that’s intensifying year by year. From the Middle East, together with Iran. To the far south of the Indian  Ocean, together with South Africa.

And even going beyond the scope  of exercises. To bring Russian and Chinese operations closer together. “In recent years we have also done some… what we call the joint patrol, be it in  the air and or be at sea.

So this kind of joint patrol are not exercises. They  are just the kind of joint operations. ” Operations that have made their neighbors  wary here around the Sea of Japan… On multiple occasions, US allies Japan and  South Korea have scrambled jets in response and published detailed charts of naval and air  force movements to show that they are on alert.

The joint patrols are part of a wide-ranging  roadmap for military cooperation signed by Russia and China’s defense ministers. A further deepening of a relationship that goes back a long way. “China's military has benefited tremendously from Russian military imports ever since the 1990s.

” Zhou Bo is a retired Senior Colonel of the Chinese military, the PLA. “So today, the Chinese military is growing with  strength, but without Russia's assistance for decades and our own efforts, probably the Chinese  military would not be as strong as it is today. ” Relations between the two sides ruptured during  the Cold War, over ideology and territory.

They even came to open conflict  along their eastern border. US president Richard Nixon exploited these  tensions to build ties with Beijing in the 1970s. But as the Soviet Union veered  towards collapse, an opening came.

“In the 80s, when pragmatic leadership arrived  in Moscow and Beijing, they decided that sorting out this territorial dispute, not investing a  lot of resources and money into this potential confrontation between two nuclear powers, but  focusing elsewhere is worth it. And that's where the foundation for the relationship was built. ” Alexander Gabuev is a Russian expert on China, based in Berlin. 

“After collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia emerged as the major provider of military hardware  to China. China was under sanctions following the Tiananmen massacre in ‘89, and Russia was  the only source of sophisticated military technology. And China obviously used that to its  advantage to buy a lot of stuff.

And, by the way, keep the Russian military industry afloat. ” This was a time of political and economic turmoil in Russia. .

. It desperately needed money. Soon  China became a new market not just for weapons but for its vast natural resources.

When Vladimir Putin came to power, he quickly signed a wide-ranging treaty  with his opposite number Jiang Zemin to cement the relationship further… and pave  the way to fully settling the border issue. “In 2006, the border was finally demarcated  and since that time, maintaining peace along this more than 4000 kilometer border is  paramount for both Beijing and Moscow. ” By this time China was in  the World Trade Organization, its ticket to becoming the  economic giant we know today.

A transformation that Russia would play a part in. “This is just a natural match made in heaven.  Russia has abundance of natural resources, needs capital and technology. 

China is the exact opposite. ” And for Putin, China became a source not  just of economic strength, but of tools of repression for a regime that became more  authoritarian the longer he stayed in power. “China is one of the secrets  for longevity and survival of the system that Vladimir Putin used to build.

” And in 2014 as Putin’s ambitions  spread outwards, with the annexation of Crimea, he set Russia on a still clearer  course… towards China, and away from the West. This is where you see the relationship between  Russia and China becoming something deeper than a matter of oil and trade and technology and  even repression. It’s become a joint mission.

A mission that the world caught an  early glimpse of here in Germany… what now seems almost like a lifetime ago. Munich, 2007.  The world has gathered for  the annual conference on global security.

The most eagerly awaited  speaker is Vladimir Putin. In his opening words he makes clear… this will be no ordinary speech. “This conference’s structure allows me to avoid excessive politeness.

. .  If my comments seem unduly polemical, pointed or inexact to our colleagues, then I would ask you not to get angry with  me.

After all, this is only a conference. ” Then he let loose, with a tirade against  what he described as a “unipolar” world… “What is a unipolar world? However one might embellish this term, at the end of  the day it refers to one type of situation, namely one center of authority,  one center of force, one center of decision-making.

It is world in which  there is one master, one sovereign. ” And that master, he said, was America. “Certain norms, in fact almost the entire  system of law of one state, first of all, of course, the United States, has  overstepped its national boundaries, and in fact, in all spheres - in the economy,  in politics, and in the humanitarian sphere - is being imposed on other states.

Who  would like that? Who would like that? ” This was Putin railing against  almost every facet of American power.

But a central part of his complaint  was the enlargement of NATO. The NATO alliance had gained ten new members  since the end of the Cold War – all of them from the former eastern bloc, which had  been dominated by the Soviet Union. None of these countries were forced to join NATO. 

Far from it, they had clamored to join, to cement their futures as secure democracies with the  ultimate protection of American nuclear forces. And at the NATO Summit in 2008, more lined up behind them… with Georgia and  Ukraine saying they wanted to join too. Ukraine’s president stressed his  country’s right to choose.

“Ukraine is an independent sovereign state. The national security  policy declared in Ukraine coincides with the foundations of the security and  defense policy pursued by NATO. ” Putin was invited to the NATO summit, and  his objections loomed over the event.

Germany and France were especially wary. The result: Ukraine and Georgia got just vague  promises that they would one day join. But they were still promises…  and Putin condemned the move.

“The emergence of a powerful  military bloc on our borders, the actions of whose members are regulated, among  other things, by Article 5 of the NATO treaty, will be perceived by Russia as a direct  threat to the security of our country. ” Four months later, Russia was at war with  Georgia. This was the first manifestation of a fundamental conflict between the right of  self-determination of Russia’s neighboring states and Putin’s insistence that their choices posed a  threat.

To Russia’s security – and its status. Ukraine would become his greatest fixation. “Putin is obsessed over control of Ukraine. 

He believes that without control over Ukraine, Russia is not a great power. It's not an empire.  And I think that this proposition has never been tested in the Russian domestic discourse - like  why dominating this 40 million nation is vital for Russia's prosperity and security in the 21st  century.

But that's what Mr Putin believes. ” These obsessions - with Ukraine, with NATO and  with American power - have driven Vladimir Putin all the way from that speech in Munich  all those years ago to the violence and destruction we see today. His relationship with  the West is effectively over.

Instead he has nurtured one critical friendship. With a man who  increasingly sees the world in the same way. Xi Jinping came to power in China in 2012 - after  a run of extraordinary growth and development… But the political system was beset by  corruption and a sense of drift.

Xi’s answer: a public crackdown on high-profile  corruption cases. Increasing political repression. And talking up a patriotic quest - what he called  the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

” The consequences of this  have already been huge. China’s technological transformation has made it  not freer but more of a digital police state, with its internet walled off and its citizens subjected  to a degree of surveillance never seen before. Under Xi, China has been accused  of mass human rights violations against the Uighur minority in the  western province of Xinjiang.

It has smothered a pro-democracy movement  in Hong Kong and stripped its people of freedoms Beijing promised when it took  over from British colonial rule. This has caused alarm for the people of  Taiwan, who fear what could happen to them… Xi has placed taking control of Taiwan as central  to his project of “national rejuvenation” … ramping up military threats and raising fears  of a wider war over Taiwan with America. China has also caused alarm among  its neighbors in southeast Asia, laying claim to the vast majority  of the South China Sea.

It’s built military infrastructure on disputed islands and shoals thousands of  kilometers from its shores. And around the world Xi’s Belt and Road project  is rolling out infrastructure on a massive scale – bringing with it economic and political  influence Beijing has never had before. For Xi Jinping, this is all working towards a  goal that is still a couple of decades away.

But almost every aspect of it  pits China against the West. “The optics is very much the centennial of the  creation of the People's Republic of China. That will be in 2049.

And by that time the party  strives to turn China into the number one global power and ending 500 centuries of  global dominance of the collective West. So global power redistribution and emergence  of China as number one global superpower. ” From Xi’s standpoint, one thing stands in  the way of achieving that vision: the US.

Under Donald Trump and Joe Biden,  US policy towards China has taken a hawkish turn, responding to Xi’s ambitions. A new consensus in Washington sees China  as America’s biggest global challenge: a rival on trade, a risk on technology,  and an outright threat on security. The result: a trade war from Trump, bans  on high-end tech cooperation from Biden, and a sweeping effort to coordinate with  American friends in Asia and beyond.

The “Quad” brings together the US, Japan, India and Australia… advocating what  they call “a free and open Indo-Pacific”. “AUKUS” binds the US and Australia even closer  together, in a submarine alliance with the UK. And in the G7, Washington has agreed with Europe, Japan and Canada on the need to reduce  risky dependencies on China.

Xi Jinping has lashed out against all of this, saying this to Communist Party  delegates in Beijing… "Western countries led by the United States  have implemented all-round containment, encirclement and suppression of China, which has brought unprecedented severe  challenges to our country's development. " It’s a perspective that seems to  echo the Putin view of the world. “The US is putting a lot of pressure on  China, on Taiwan and many other issues.

So, you can see that also the US formed so  many alliances surrounding China. ” Wang Huiyao runs a think tank in Beijing –  and  has close ties to the Chinese government. “So all those things make China insecure  as well.

And I think Russia probably feels the same. And I think in that sense they  have some common feelings because they all feel this Western pressure led by the  US. Both China and Russia felt a lot of similar sentiment that they have been  forced by the US to stick together.

” This is underpinned by a deep  bond between the two autocrats. “Shared animosity towards the US is very much  the glue that brings the two men together. It's increasingly the emperor and the Tsar.

And since  it's far less an organized, institutionalized autocracy but just more personalized regime,  definitely the relationship between the two men is of paramount importance. Xi Jinping and  Putin are age mates. Putin is just six months older.

They are, in a way, soul mates. There  are so many similar traits. They had hardships in their youth.

Both fathers fought in World  War Two against the Germans and the Japanese. They both have daughters, so there is a lot in  common that brings them together. And I've seen them in person I think, once.

And you see the body  language that the rapport is really there. ” Xi Jinping spoke publicly about this  during a visit to Moscow in 2019. "I have established close working relationships  and deep personal friendship with President Putin.

In the past six years, we have met  nearly 30 times. Russia is the country that I have visited the most times, and President  Putin is my best friend and colleague. " This personal bond got its greatest  expression in Beijing in February 2022.

As China hosted the Winter  Olympics the two men announced another step up in their relations.  A partnership “without limits. ” What made this all the more striking was the  fact that at the time, Putin was on the verge of invading Ukraine.

Ever since, people have been  asking: how much did he tell his “best friend? ” “Based on what I know, they danced around the  topics. And China's primary concern was nothing happens before the end of the Olympics.

And what  they were anticipating was just a very limited scope military operation, maybe focused on eastern  Ukraine, not an all-out assault on Ukraine. ” Whatever the truth, Putin made  his appearance at the Olympics and went home to start his war. The fallout has  pushed him even closer into China’s embrace.

“Russia doesn't really have alternative  economic partners amid Western sanctions. Russia is the most sanctioned nation on  earth. So Russia is rapidly diversifying its economy towards Asia-Pacific,  and that's where China is definitely the major partner that provides a  market for the Russian resources, technology that Russia relies on, including  military technology and dual-use goods.

” When you look at this relationship - driven by  Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, you can see that the personal and the structural dimensions  are deeply connected. The two men share an obsession about American  power. But it compounds  an underlying and potentially inevitable conflict between ambitious autocracies  and established democracies.

“I think that the structural factor  is the most important. And if we can imagine different leaders presiding over pretty  similar power structures with non-democratic, US-skeptical regimes, we might  end up in the same result. ” Feeding this is a fear, in  Beijing and Moscow – that Washington sees their regimes as illegitimate, and a paranoia that America has regime change  in both capitals as its ultimate goal.

“The Russian view is that…the US wants to bring  down Russia first and then address to China. That's something what the conspiratorial-minded  Russian leadership believes. It might not be true, but that's unfortunately what's driving a lot of  their calculations, also including war in Ukraine.

They are concerned in a very physical sense  about expansion of US security alliances and where they seek to work together to undermine  this US dominance in the global system. ” So that’s the joint mission: beating back a  global system led by America that Putin and Xi perceive as a threat to their ambitions. It’s  a mission that manifests itself in many places.

Like at the United Nations, where  China is trying to redefine human rights and democracy…. Tapping into influence  gained through the Belt and Road project. “We see China dominating the Human  Rights Council and inserting some of Xi Jinping's phrases about a "community  of shared future" into documents… Bonnie Glaser heads the Indo-Pacific programme at the German Marshall Fund  think tank in Washington DC.

“Convincing countries that human rights  should be underpinned by economic definitions, not necessarily the kind of freedoms  that we think about in the West. ” In the UN Security Council, Russia and  China routinely vote together - for instance on how to respond to  North Korea’s nuclear program. In fact a high-profile trip to Russia was  the latest sign that Kim Jong-Un is getting increasingly active support from the two powers. 

That visit came just weeks after Russia’s defence minister and a top Chinese Politburo member  attended a military parade in Pyongyang, complete with nuclear missiles that  could reach as far as America. “China and Russia have voted together  now to not impose more sanctions on North Korea. They don't want to continue  to implement these sanctions.

So they see North Korea as a continuing  partner of Russia and China. ” Dictatorships in the unstable Sahel region  spanning Africa are also getting Russian support, with Moscow squeezing out western influence and  quashing hopes of democratic development… This dovetails with China’s Belt and Road  investments across the continent. On a global level, China and Russia are  pushing for an international cyber treaty.

“This would protect themselves because they could control the - further control the amount of  information coming into their societies and try to gain advantages in the ways that  cyber could even be used in wartime. ” Also in the BRICS – the growing club  built around Russia, China, Brazil, India and South Africa – Moscow and Beijing have been pushing to shift global trade and  investment away from the US dollar. This is potentially attractive to emerging  economies vulnerable to swings in US monetary policy – or countries that fear the reach of  western sanctions linked to the dollar.

Increasingly, China is positioning its currency  - the Renminbi or RMB - as the answer. Russia is already playing along, accepting  RMB for commodities sales to China. This sidesteps the US financial system that  it’s been shut out of since the war began.

But Putin’s war has also brought  along some problems for China. “The war in Ukraine, it's a mixed bag for China.  On one hand, it really keeps the US distracted.

A lot of resources are being spent on European  security. The flip side is that the global economy gets more destabilized… then also China  sees certain alienation of Europe from China. And then when people say we should focus more on  a potential nightmarish scenario in the Taiwan Strait because of what happened in Ukraine, and  we need to start to de-risk, diversify away, friendshore, offshore.

So all of that discussion  is amplified by Russia's war in Ukraine. So despite the “no limits” rhetoric, there  are some limits to this relationship. China is not overtly supporting  Russia’s war.

And most importantly, it is not a full-scale military alliance  with a guarantee like NATO’s Article 5. “China would not give Russia an Article  5 type of guarantee because it would ultimately need to be involved in war in  Ukraine, which it doesn't want to. ” “If China provided military assistance  to Russia, then we probably were going to have really the dawn of the third  World War with China and Russia standing on one side and NATO led by the US on the  other side.

This is the worst nightmare. So China's non-participation in this  kind of war is out of its own interest, of course. But it is - also has demonstrated  huge, huge responsibility for the world.

” This highlights the two sides of Xi’s position… trying to persuade the world that he’s  taking a responsible position – while signaling to Putin that when it comes  down to it, they’re on the same side. “I think that the way that Xi Jinping came  to Moscow showing his unequivocal support, basically - not saying that he  approves of the war against Ukraine, but saying that the first state visit is  to Russia, He comes extra to see his friend in the Kremlin and spend nearly three days  with him. That's a big show of support.

” And short of a military alliance, there’s still huge potential for  the two powers to work together. “Both countries are religious about  strategic autonomy. But they can integrate their militaries and military  industrial complexes without giving this formal commitments.

And that will  make it far more dangerous. ” So where is this heading? In part 3 we turn  to three areas where Russia and China could join forces even more effectively… and find  out what that might mean for the world.

Gansu province, Western China. It’s 2021 … and high above the earth, satellites from the US firm Planet Labs  scan the desert. Following a lead.

“There had been some rumors  that we were under-counting the number of nuclear launchers in China. ” Decker Eveleth is a nuclear weapons  researcher based in Monterey, California. “We had seen some construction of a limited  number of silos at a concepts-of-operation site at a place called Jilantai.

A silo is effectively  a large, reinforced hole in the ground that you can launch a missile out of. And so we  decided we're going to go basically look for, to see if they had built-up significant  numbers of those patterns of silos. ” “And we finally came across the ones near a place called Yumen….

Where they're  building about 120 solid fuel missile silos. ” There was a windfarm nearby. But  the researchers were sure - this was something completely different.

“You had these inflatable covers. All of them  were spaced three kilometers apart. And we saw trenches for communications wiring, to  cut-and-cover underground command bunkers.

” China may show off its nuclear weapons  at ceremonial parades. But it’s always had FAR fewer than either the US or Russia,  which currently both have around 5000-6000. Now that’s changing.

Fast. “Though China's arsenal has been for  a very long time, relatively small, but it is growing. And by 2030, I think  the prediction is that they will have about 1000 warheads and by the middle of the  2030s, as many as 1500.

So China is clearly on a trajectory of doubling and  then tripling its nuclear arsenal. ” But it’s not just a question of numbers. China is  also rethinking its approach to nuclear weapons.

Particularly its intercontinental  ballistic missiles - or ICBMs. “Most of China's existing ICBMs that are  currently deployed are on mobile trucks. They drive trucks around, they have tunnels, and the idea is that it makes it harder for the  US to target them because they’re always moving.

The problem with that is that it's a really really  expensive and complicated force to operate. ” Now this rapid expansion of missile silos enables  a boost in both numbers and reaction speed. “It's just a much more responsive force. 

You have - if it's already in the silo, if you are on alert most of the time, you have  a near-instantaneous launch position. ” This is China preparing its nuclear  forces for a possible war with the United States. And for the West,  there’s another dimension to this.

“We should not underestimate the degree to which  Russia and China will work together. For example, developing shared nuclear planning.  I think that's an area that would be extremely detrimental to Western interests.

” “Their combined forces are going to outnumber US  current forces if the current trajectory holds. And so the fear I would say is that - you know, the fear has been that China and Russia  could combine their war plans and create an extremely effective force for  targeting the United States. ” This is a nightmare scenario for the US.

“The question is whether we have to plan,  in the event that we had a war with China, that China and Russia would be working  together. And I think that in our nuclear planning in the past, that has not  been the assumption. And of course, if you combine those two arsenals, then  we would be facing a massive threat.

” China and Russia could coordinate in many ways  that could leave the US struggling to respond. “In a situation in which there is  a crisis or limited war with China, making sure that there are still deterrence  assets in place to make sure that Russia doesn't do something in Europe - or vice versa. If there's  a limited war with Russia, making sure that China doesn't see the opportunity to take Taiwan. 

That's the problem that we have, right? ” On top of this, new developments in cruise missiles could threaten  even greater instability. “When you have these new technologies  like stealth cruise missiles, you're getting into territory in which it's  possible that you could destroy almost the entirety of the opponent's missile forces very  quickly, and when you're in that situation, the solution is effectively that you need to be  the first mover, right?

So that's what I worry about is a situation in which both, for example,  Russia and the United States have stealth cruise missiles, or both Russia and China and the  United States have stealth cruise missiles. ” With such weapons in future arsenals, the big  three militaries could be on a hair trigger. “The room for decision-making is very, very short. 

The window for decision here is extremely small. And that's what I worry about. And  that's destabilizing - right - because you have a situation in which now any amount  of hesitation on one side would result in possibly unacceptable losses.

” These are grim, dangerous scenarios.  During the Cold War in the last century, the US and Russia tried to manage the risks  around nuclear weapons with a series of arms control agreements. But those have all but  died in recent years.

Now with China there’s a new player in the mix. Is there any chance of  getting the three sides to sit down and talk? “The United States first called for  trilateral arms control discussions in the Trump administration.

Of course, the  Chinese were not interested. And I think it is unlikely that the Chinese are going to  agree to that today. But going forward, as China becomes more confident in its power,  in particularly in its nuclear capabilities, I think we should hold open the possibility that  we can have arms control talks with China.

It may be bilaterally, it may be trilaterally, but this  is not something that we should rule out. ” In the meantime, with China’s  weapons program advancing, and US-Russian relations deep in crisis, the  danger of an all-out arms race is real. “I don't think that we're currently in that big  of an arms race.

I think it's possible we might enter one sometime soon. But again that depends,  I think, largely in part, on - A, how bad the Russia situation gets, and 2, how China views  its forces and how they want to talk about it. Because if China doesn't want to talk  about it, then that limits a lot of what we can do.

I'm hopeful that China  will talk about it, but we'll see. ” We could be facing a very unstable  period before any efforts like that can get underway… And it’s not just the  US that is worried. We turn now to another major power facing dangers and dilemmas from  Russia and China getting closer… India.

In the eastern Himalayas, there  is a struggle underway. This is the Indian State of Arunachal Pradesh, home to some of the holiest  sites of Tibetan Buddhism. The Dalai Lama escaped here from Tibet after  the uprising against Chinese rule there in 1959.

China quashed the rebellion and  controls Tibet to this day. And Beijing claims it should control Arunachal  Pradesh too… and even calls it Southern Tibet. Against this backdrop, India has ramped up  its troop presence here… Bracing for violence after recent clashes with Chinese forces. 

And it’s building up infrastructure too, trying to make it easier to keep  hold of these remote lands. India has been on high alert along its vast border  with China ever since fighting in 2020 killed dozens of troops. The biggest flare-up in decades  in what is the world’s largest border dispute.

“60 years of border architecture went  up in flames overnight. Since then, there has been significant troop build-up by  both sides. And this is a live problem.

” Tensions have been brewing since early on  in Narendra Modi’s period in office. “When Prime Minister Modi's  government first came into power, they really tried hard to reach out to China. ” Garima Mohan is a fellow at the German  Marshall Fund think tank in Berlin.

“We often heard of the China model  of development being touted in India, really a hope of forging good ties  and relationships with China. However, that was spurned from the Chinese  side when we, almost simultaneously with these meetings started seeing more  incursions on the India-China border. ” Delhi has also been unnerved by  Xi Jinping intensifying Chinese engagement with India’s neighbors…   pouring investment into Sri Lanka… into Bangladesh… and into  India’s arch enemy, Pakistan.

And China’s actions in its own backyard  have worried Indian observers too. “All they see is now patterns  of intimidation and aggression, followed by China with most of its  close neighbors, with Japan, of course, with the case of Taiwan in the South China  Sea and now on the Himalayan border. ” Taken together, all this has  transformed Indian thinking on China… from an open question to a  serious sense of alarm.

“What kind of international  actor would China be as it rises? And the answer, unfortunately, is quite is is  a difficult one. It's a scary one.

You have seen now the conversation in India change  completely. Within the political spectrum, there is no single political party that sees  China as a friend. China is seen as the most consequential foreign policy issue,  an existential threat to India.

” What’s doubly scary for India is  China getting so close to Russia. Something that throws one of Delhi’s most  important relationships into question. “The India-Russia relationship, I like to  say, is one deeply rooted in nostalgia.

Russia, previously the Soviet Union, played  a very important role in the history of independent India. India, as it was building its  institutions, including the Indian military. So, for example, my parents' generation have a  very romanticized view of the country.

” It’s also a relationship built on weapons. Russia has been India’s biggest  military supplier for decades. Now, Delhi has to think about Chinese  influence on its old friend.

“It is definitely moving into  the direction of Moscow being junior partner to Beijing. And that really is a difficult scenario for India, given that China is the most important  threat India faces right now. ” India already sees Russia and China  coordinating more closely in groupings like the BRICS as we saw earlier.

.  and the SCO  – the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. “I've even spoken to certain folks in  New Delhi who mentioned that they were surprised by Russia's behavior.

They've been  surprised at how openly Russia has been batting for Chinese positions in these multilateral  formats, where in the past Russia would often hedge with India, they would use India, they  brought India into SCO to balance China. ” A bigger worry looking ahead… what  happens if India’s border conflict with China worsens… and Russia  leaves India in the lurch… “The realities of conventional war, I mean, it's  not something of the past… It can still happen. It happened in Europe.

It can happen in parts of  the Indo-Pacific. And I think that is something – Taiwan contingencies, what happens next on the  Himalayan border? )) That is something we need to be preparing for now rather than waiting  for it to happen or hoping that it wouldn't.

” “Russia could potentially play a spoiler role  in the case of when the India-China conflict on the border heats up, even if it doesn't play  spoiler, it plays neutral. It can still have, you know, tilt the scales in China's favor.  And those are really dire consequences.

” And one scenario is even more dire for  India… where Pakistan enters the picture. “The possibility of a Pakistan, Russia,  China axis for India is really the nightmare scenario… Given its geographical location, given  its history with at least two of these actors, given its dependence on Russian weapons  and arms and military technology. ” So what does this mean for India’s  relationship with Russia?

“As Russia-China alignment  grows closer and stronger, there will certainly be tensions and  fraying in India-Russia ties. ” But if you’re thinking India might make a dramatic  break from its old friend… think again… “The real push in Delhi right now is to make sure  - somehow slow down this growing alignment between Russia and China and to see where India can  still play a role in keeping Moscow separate and keeping them engaged and slowing down this what  to the rest of us seems inevitable process. ” Alongside this, Delhi is shoring up  relationships with western powers… particularly the United States, transforming  what used to be frosty ties.

Narendra Modi’s recent state visit to the US brought an address  to Congress and some major arms deals. “Prime Minister Modi's visit to Washington  DC resulted in some takeaways for India, which are often only given to US allies. India  is not one, but it has still developed a very, very close partnership with the United States,  with Japan, with Australia in the Quad.

” So what kind of world does Delhi want? “I think the Indian vision is still very much  multipolarity. The idea would be to have several poles in the world, which is another reason why  it continues to work with Russia and hopes that it isn't isolated, continues to deal with China  in certain formats as well.

But I think the ideal vision of multipolarity, when confronted with the  realities of the world, has meant that India has had to change track. I think currently all of  India's foreign policy choices, its vision from the world is seen through the lens of the China  problem. All the partnerships that India has, all relationships that India has, is refracted  through the China lens.

Who can help balance China? Who can help compete with China? Who  can help provide alternatives to China?

” That’s how huge a factor China has become  in the world today. And here in Europe, it’s increasingly clear that Beijing will play  a significant role in any end-game to the war in Ukraine… Let’s find out what that could  mean, in the final part of this video. We’re back in Munich.

This time it’s  16 years after Putin’s famous speech. Now the conference is dominated by the war  in Ukraine. China’s top diplomat Wang Yi is here.

He has an announcement to make: a  “position paper” on ending the war. "China's approach to the Ukrainian issue boils  down to one phrase: to urge peace and promote talks. To this end, we will issue a Chinese  position on a political solution to the crisis in Ukraine.

We will continue to stand firmly on the  side of peace and on the side of dialogue. " This was China further honing its position on the  war… presenting itself as an honest broker. “China wants to be more as a guarantor, as  a helper, as a mediator, as some kind of a, you know, convener.

I mean,  anything that China is needed, China would be willing to do. And  China wants to see the war ending. And China's president is talking to President  Zelenskyy, has talked to President Putin.

” And yet there are strong doubts  that Xi could be an honest broker. China’s rhetoric has consistently underlined  its sympathy for Russia’s narrative. “Putin actually is not the first Russian president  who warned against NATO expansion.

Actually, this came from a Soviet leader  like Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin and then to Putin. So Putin's  difference from his predecessors is that he not only give warning, but  he also carried it into action. ” And NATO will be a key question  in any talks to end the war… Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has  been pushing hard for membership.

It would be the ultimate security guarantee… a victory for  Ukrainian self-determination. And for the West. It’s the very thing Putin railed against  in Munich all those years ago.

And it’s something China  clearly doesn’t want today. “Well, China certainly doesn't favor any NATO  expansion. If Ukraine stayed out of NATO, probably things could be easier to  reach a peace, a peaceful process.

” China simply does not want to  see a serious defeat for Russia. So it’s helping Putin as much as it can - while  being cautious about western red lines. “China does at least three things.

It keeps  the Russian economy going by purchasing Russian hydrocarbons and other commodities, by providing  Russia access to RMB. China keeps Russian industry going, including the military industry…. The red  line for the Chinese communicated by the Americans is not violation of sanctions in a very overt way  and no supply of kinetic military goods that would dramatically help the Russian military effort. 

And I think that for the time being, China keeps these two red lines and respects them. But I think  that everything outside of the scope of these red lines is really helpful for Russia to continue  this lengthy and tragic war of attrition. ” So Putin gets this support from China – and  backs up his position with a threat – to resort to nuclear weapons if he doesn’t  get his way.

A threat designed to deter greater western support for Ukraine. And  a threat that Chinese voices highlight. “I believe the best outcome is Ukraine will  lose some new territories in addition to Crimea.

So where are these new territories?  It is somewhere within the four provinces that are already declared  by Russia to be Russian territories. Then the worst outcome is if President Putin  decided to use a tactical nuclear weapon.

” “The whole mankind is at a crossroad,  war or peace. We may we may end up going back to the Stone Age and – you  know -- very, very dangerous. ” Xi Jinping has publicly distanced himself from  Putin’s nuclear threats – part of his effort to appeal to Europeans and open up transatlantic  divisions between them and the US.

So you can see the outlines here of Moscow  and Beijing taking a multi-pronged approach to Ukraine. Russia digging in for  a long war, taking as much help as it can get from China. Beijing keeping  Moscow afloat… while doing what it can to divide the West.

And Putin backing all of  this up with threats of nuclear escalation. “He feels pretty confident that time is on his  side, that things don't go well in the front lines, but they don't go utterly miserably  for him. And then at some point the western will to support Ukraine might be broken.

We  might have Donald Trump back. We might have a different president in France. We might  have a different chancellor in Germany.

And that's where Ukrainians start to fight  internally. And that's ultimately - he doesn't get control over Ukraine, but he keeps  what's left of Ukraine broken, dysfunctional, miserable, depopulated. And that's a  good enough outcome.

That's his bet. ” And for China… that might look  pretty attractive. A situation it could – potentially – take advantage of.

“Right now there is a war, yes, in Europe, which  will last for many years. Nobody knows how many years, but this is the only conclusion  we know that it will simply last. So for, for many years, NATO will simply  be bogged down in Europe.

” “Imagine that Russia does a large  exercise or escalates in Ukraine at the time where China wants to make  a move on Taiwan. I think that would put a lot of US defense planners into  a tough spot because you obviously need to allocate resources to address the  challenge in the West, in Europe. ” This underlines that any endgame in the  war is going to be about much more than Russia and Ukraine.

It’s going to be a test  of wills and resilience for everyone involved… Russia and China together… and Ukraine  and the entire collective West. Autocracies versus democracies, at  loggerheads over the future of the world. The drama in Russia over the mercenary leader  Yevgeny Prigozhin challenging the military leadership raised questions over the Kremlin  regime… Questions that matter for China.

“The concern about potential  instability in Russia is going to be there going forward and Beijing  will be watching this closely. ” But there is little expectation  that China will abandon Russia. “Xi Jinping really views Vladimir  Putin as a - as a crucial partner in weakening the United States.

It is  my view that it is no longer possible to drive a wedge between Russia and  China, if it was ever possible. ” “The view in Beijing is that China is in  this period of prolonged confrontation with the United States and nothing short  of full surrender will deliver fundamental improvement in the US-China ties. So China  thinks about its relationship with Russia in a way in counterfactuals.

So what if  we throw Vladimir Putin under the bus, criticize his unlawful invasion of Ukraine,  introduce sanctions of our own, demand that he vacates all of the Ukrainian territory, including  Crimea, then probably Putin's regime is doomed at some point and it collapses. And then there is a  new government that wants to be friends with the West. So the West will just pocket this concession  and say, thank you, China, goodbye.

Now, what about Xinjiang? What about Taiwan? What about your  IP theft?

What about your technological programs that really challenge the US dominance in those  fields? What about your military buildup? So China will lose a very valuable partner and instead get  even more problems with the United States.

” It’s a cold calculation but a powerful  one. Drwing two men, two regimes, ever closer together. They need each  other, the Emperor and the Tsar.

So that’s where we stand. Russia and China  determined in their mission to take on the West. The US rallying the West together. 

Powers like India seeking to make their own way. It sounds like a new cold war for our  century. The world on a knife-edge.