Former MI6 boss on Trump, Putin and a 'new era' for international relations

so Alex younger are we seeing up seeing The Ripping up of a decades long American policy that was always Russia can't be trusted I think we are in a new era where by and large international relations aren't going to be determined by rules and multilateral institutions they're going to be determined by strong men and Deals I think of the yelta treaty at the end of 1945 where three strong men as they were then uh on behalf of the the big countries the strong countries decided the fate of small countries I think that's Donald Trump's mindset

it's certainly Putin's mindset it's xiin Ping's mindset it's not Europe's mindset that's the world we're going into for a whole set of reasons and I don't think we're going back to the one we had before why do you say that because the one we had before was based on the unipolar moment where America had both the means and the will to ass itself across the world it created what we call globalization the International Security structure it's now a significantly smaller relative player relative to others than it was and of course um it's will its will

to be that person has has diminished so it Still Remains a prodigious country you underestimating America at your peril but its ability to make the rules across the world that's not there now okay um Katherine after today's rhetoric what will President Putin be thinking I think um Putin is cheering he's very happy at what he's heard even before uh Trump spoke today even before the meeting yesterday in Riyad which brought Russia out of its isolation from the West ever since the world began already you had uh tycoons close to Putin in Moscow uh hailing the

dawn of this new era uh where why they believe that precisely this that this is the era of strong men the return of great Powers who get to uh divvy up the world between themselves over the heads of smaller countries like Ukraine and over the heads of Europe and uh already uh I was speaking to one Tycoon close to Putin who's sanctioned by the US who was basically saying well uh Trump has now laid claim to Greenland to Panama uh the Panama Canal he's laid claim to uh Canada to Gaza if he wants us to

recognize his claims in the Western Hemisphere the US's right to rule the Western half of the world then they must recognize our sphere of strategic interest in Ukraine and also in Central Asia how do you respond to that sir Alex yes I mean I think we are seeing um deals we're seeing a conversation about spheres of influence and I think the only people who haven't woken up to this reality is is US Europe yeah and there's an entry ticket to this conversation it appears and sadly it's not our soft power or our values it's hard

power and it leaves the category challenge for us in Europe how do we develop that to get ourselves a seat in this conversation Donald Trump has as we know attacked president zalinsky today he hasn't condemned Russia's Invasion he didn't ask them to stop the attacks on ukrainians before that meeting in Riyad yesterday um I mean President Putin must be absolutely in Dreamland yeah I think you're right I mean there's another there's a French businessman I speak to who's based in Moscow also working with uh tycoons very close to the F Kremlin and they're saying everyone

loves Trump here even the FSB we all raised a toast when he became president and I think it's almost sort of beyond their dreams too about how quickly the rhetoric has changed I mean we saw only a few weeks ago Trump was still trying to act tough in relation to Russia saying that its economy was weakened which is certainly true they've got Skyhigh inflation interest rates are spiraling uh the economy is definitely slowing down and probably they can only continue to perpetuate the level of military production for another year before things start going uh pearshaped

and you know Trump had a strong hand and he was apparently showing he was ready to leverage that saying there'll be more sanctions we don't get the deal that we that we want uh but now uh literally in the space of a few weeks whether he's responded to Putin's flattery of him uh just a few weeks ago Putin had said that Trump uh should have won had won the 2020 election and he would still have been president had not the Democrats stolen it from him and whether that's to some degree worked in softening Trump up

or whether it's the offer of hundreds of billions of dollars in deals that they seem to be dangling in front of trump and appealing to his sensibilities as a businessman and a real estate developer I mean Trump is in acquisition phase now we've seen him laying claim to all these different countries and I think you know he's certainly looking at Russia too and and Russia is able to manipulate him and flatter him uh very easily um well Donald Trump's attack on president zilinsky came after Ukraine's leader accused the US president of living in a disinformation

space and he specifically referred to Mr Trump's false claim that Mr zelinsky's approval rating among ukrainians is only 4% since we're talking about 4% we have seen this disinformation we understand that it is coming from Russia we understand and we have evidence that these numbers are being discussed between America and Russia it is unfortunate that President Trump and with great respect for him as a leader of the American people who constantly support us unfortunately lives in this disinformation space why do you think Sir Alex younger president Trump wanted to respond to that no I think

it's unfortunate and I agree with Katherine this would be emboldening to Putin I don't know whether Donald Trump actually buys the Russian line but I I think the Russians probably think he does and I think that significantly diminishes his leverage and I saw this happen in Afghanistan where he gave away the biggest concession before we even started it's a strange art of the deal honestly there look um zilinski and Trump they're in their way different politicians zinski had no choice I think but to respond when he was accused of lacking Democratic legitimacy and Donald Trump

is notoriously thin skinned and we've got into this spat I do not think we should read too much into it these negotiations are at a very early stage they're going to be highly complicated exactly as I expected Russia has gone maximal to the point that they may even have overreached it's going to be very very hard uh for Trump to cut through this in a way that produces anything that isn't an abject humiliation what iure of overreach what do you mean the the issue is that Trump and Putin are talking about different things so so

um Trump thinks this is about territory characteristically as a real estate guy it's about land giving land to Russia in return for peace it's not about territory and Putin said it's about sovereignty Putin was super clear when he started this war that the existence of Ukraine as a sovereign and free country was an unacceptable affront to Russian security he will not stop until Ukraine isn't a country anymore and that is that is a that is a completely different conversation and by the way there's more there's there's Europe putting NATO putting constraints on its presence in

Eastern Europe and going back to previous borders in 97 this is well out of scope I don't think it's stuff that Donald Trump has clearly thought about but you're instantly into it Russia came out today and said they wouldn't accept Western troops in Ukraine of course they said that they are determined that Ukraine should be an undefended basket case but we're talking about security guarantees as a necessary endgame it's it it seems it still feels for all of this Bluster fundamentally irreconcilable problem right how worried should people who are watching tonight be well I think

that um as a European it's it's it's a massive wakeup call whatever you think about this all the smoke and dust and mirrors and complexity and I don't know how it's going to end I know one thing for certain which is that Europe will own more of this at the end than it did at the beginning now I do not want to exaggerate the Russian army has performed ridly it's not going to March into Warsaw tomorrow but nor should we obscure the fact that this will be hugely emboldening and over time they will build up

their capabilities the reason we don't need to be that worried is we are 10 times richer as European NATO than Russia we absolutely have the capability to build up the necessary military forces to resist this but if we don't do that then yes this is the stuff of nightmares um the visit of the British prime minister sakir starma to Washington next week I mean there's already a lot of attention and focus on that but it becomes more acute I suppose now um I wonder I wonder what Sak starma should be saying to Donald Trump next

week go on I don't mind Katherine do you have well I think first of all we would have to hope that Europe has its act together before he goes there there has to be a unified position otherwise Trump isn't going to take anything he says seriously we've already heard Ura ferion uh speak about the need to create a 700 billion uh Euro uh defense fund uh and if that finally gets off the ground then yes starma will be speaking from a position where he can be respected if not it's going to be just the usual

chitchat and might not mean anything what do you think the British prime minister should be saying to Donald Trump so two things first of all I absolutely agree with Katherine we need to organize to effect to demonstrate that we're prepared to play a role take control of our own environment recognize that we've got to develop hard power and that's going to happen quickly Donald Trump is not wrong about everything we were free riding there was free riding in Europe and this needs to be sorted out and the other thing is what I have just said

I think you need to explain to Donald Trump why uh giving away Euro um Ukraine as a country giving away its sovereignty would be a devastating mistake Trump has already said that he that Putin should not be allowed to be seen to win he seems to understand that as a concept although I accept that his tone has changed uh he was quite complicit in Afghanistan even though he pinned on Joe Biden he gave away the farm before it even started and that led to the Fiasco he can't own a fiasco like that and then think

of the example this sets for shiin Ping sitting across the Taiwan straight from Taiwan I mean uh that would that goes straight into into into shining's mind so these are the things that I would be advising the prime minister to dwell on although I'm sure he's got a lot of ideas of his own you you've mentioned Afghanistan a couple of times people have reminded me that President Trump met the North Korea leader twice there was no deal because president Trump then in the first term didn't get what he wanted and he walked away so we

have seen that side of him as well is is that a possibility W with President Putin uh yeah and indeed um it's important for us to note that our approach to either Gaza or Ukraine take your pick wasn't working so I don't I don't intrinsically reject his instinct to disrupt this okay nor do I even think that having a conversation is a bad thing if what you've just said is in his Armory I mean you are speaking in moderate terms you're very measured it sounds like you are completely stepping back from all this rhetoric of

the last seven days do you have confidence that a fair and sustainable to quote the words of Marco Rubio yesterday settlement will be the outcome of this no no no I think it's wide open so I think it can be and actually I think Trump has quite considerable Leverage as Katherine said the reality is that the Russian economy is grossly out of shape and cannot be run like this for more than another year and Putin has lost 800,000 killed or wounded which even for an autocrat like him has got to have an effect and most

important of all I think that this is a huge psychological moment for Putin he's been waiting for years for Trump to get in and if Trump actually turns out not to be the opportunity the Russ expect they don't have another plan so there's quite a lot of Leverage here and I think if um if it can be firmly established in Donald Trump's mind that having a residual free Ukraine is his bargaining point he can get that and I think if that happens we're going to be okay we it's a wakeup call we need to organize

to effect it is a huge tragedy for people who will be left behind the Frozen front line but we can deal with that if um if it's do a deal at any cost get out and give it to the Europeans then I think that's a big problem