Putin Will Lose, Here's Why

[Music] [Applause] foreign why are you doing this why are you fighting this needless war this war of conquest that will topple so many lives he sent his forces his missiles in the middle of the night these are the troops hundreds of thousands of them that had been camped out on the border for months troops that putin had insisted were there for a routine military exercise and that the u. s and uk intel swore were actually preparing to invade many around the world including in ukraine thought that this was just the west being dramatic stoking the tensions but the intel was exactly right most of those troops crossed the border last week and are now inside the country russian military vehicles including tanks entering ukraine the invasion the attack that russia promised would never happen has now started the country is being attacked from all directions hours after this invasion started in the middle of the night on thursday morning ukraine's president zielinski appeared on tv not just to talk to his people but to speak directly to russians themselves we share a border of over 2 000 kilometers and along this border your troops are stationed almost 200 000 soldiers your leaders just approved them to make a step towards us into the territory of another country this step is likely the beginning of a massive war on the european continent russia again warned its nuclear forces were on high alert several cities were hit in residential areas resulting in dozens of civilian deaths this is a war unlike any war the world has ever seen it looks like a war from like 1830 but it's happening in 2022 putin's army is much stronger than ukraine's at least in terms of numbers if he really wants to he probably is going to be able to take over the country's major population centers and oust the ukrainian government the u. s and nato can't send troops for fear of starting a clash between two nuclear nations something we simply do not do it's a red line that no one crosses i want to tell you exactly why vladimir putin and his army are here the story behind this invasion is the story of this one man's worldview but it's also a story of a bet that he took a bet that ukrainians would give up lay down their arms and see the world the way he does but if there's anything i have learned in the past week it's that even if putin conquers a big portion of this country something he has the military hardware to do even if he does that he still won't win this war in fact i'm here to argue that he's already lost there are big explosions taking place in kiev right now people here are going to be waking up to a very different country than the one they went to sleep we are getting this non-stop reports of attacks and russian strikes from all across the country [Music] vladimir putin has already lost this war and to understand what i'm talking about you have to look at two things number one what putin said right before the invasion and number two what actually happened once he invaded i want to show you both [Music] so a few days before the invasion putin gets on tv and addresses the nation [Music] it's this unsurprising hour-long history lecture where putin lays out his grand intricate argument as to why ukraine in fact isn't a real country [Music] instead ukraine was created by the authors of the russian communist revolution 100 years ago and now ukraine this invented country that's just an extension of russia itself has been hijacked by the u.

s and europe who have installed neo-nazi thugs to run the show seriously he said all of this you can go watch the hour-long lecture if you want according to his story the west did this to eventually force ukraine into their military alliance called nato which they will use to defeat russia just like and seriously he says this just like hitler did 80 years ago but this time putin will make sure that russia is ready for the invasion oh gosh there is a lot to unpack here the neo-nazi thug thing i will get to that in a second but the message was clear putin was basically like ukraine if you're gonna disavow communist russia and all of the things that it gave to you you don't deserve the land that you got from communist russia and in fact all of this land still belongs to russia and we're going to take it back [Music] but this warped historical framing of who rightfully owns this land isn't quite enough to justify an invasion maybe in like 1860 or something but not today so putin needs to really emphasize the villains in his story so he makes a big part of his story this idea that ukraine this fake country is being run by american-backed anti-russian neo-nazis who are holding the ukrainian people hostages okay okay it's easy to poke fun at like the delusion of vladimir putin but let's talk about the facts here and what putin is actually basing this off of because it really matters for understanding why he went in and why he's gonna lose first let's just clear up the fact that ukraine wasn't invented by russia kiev the capital of ukraine was a thriving city long before moscow was even on the map ukraine has a very old culture but what putin has done is twisted modern history to make a claim that ukraine actually isn't a legitimate country and he does this because it's a very key part of his story one that supports the second major argument which is that ukraine is run by neo-nazis who want to exterminate the russian-speaking population so let's get the facts here within ukraine there is indeed a faction of far-right neo-nazis who have a political party and a militia force and this militia force has actually joined the ukrainian army in the past eight years to fight russia back from annexing any more territory in the east of the country you may have remembered that russia took over a big part of ukraine called crimea eight years ago ukrainian forces have set up a perimeter but it's clear that we are completely surrounded by russian forces yeah these neo-nazi fighters sort of nationalist guys came up as a resistance to that and yeah putin's got one thing right these are not good people these are literal neo-nazi white supremacist soldiers that commit all sorts of atrocities and train children in their ideology and fighting tactics [Music] so yeah putin i get it these are bad people neo-nazis we don't like them but putin is claiming that these are the people running the country running ukraine when in fact if you look at the data from the 2019 election in ukraine you'll see that the country's ultra-nationalist far-right coalition gained barely over two percent of the vote and zero seats in the parliament they are a small group of extremely fringe far right fighters that putin has latched on to oh and there's a more obvious bit of data here which is that the ukrainian president is jewish and has family who died in the holocaust ukraine is not run by neo-nazis listen to balance my view on this because i'm in the west and i'm getting all western media i have actually been watching russian state tv to like see what the narrative is on their side and i can tell you that they actually believe that the country is run by nazis it is reminiscent of the practices and methods of nazi germany and we're seeing a full revival of nazism and fascism in ukraine i've tried to dig into this to try to understand like is there more like meat on the bone here no there's not a fringe group of militiamen in the far east are what putin is basing this off of over here in reality land ukraine is a nation of 44 million people with its own culture that is thousands of years old it is a country where fewer and fewer people like russia in fact it's a country that ousted the pro-russian leader in 2014 [Music] the people don't want russia and putin anymore they've moved on but all of these facts are explained away very conveniently by putin's bigger conspiracy which is that it's actually outside forces that are pulling the strings and that the people of ukraine have been brainwashed by the west and yet there is one thing that putin is absolutely right about [Music] these two countries are deeply connected through culture and language and history and exchange a war against ukrainians would not sit well with the russian people and this explains why putin needs to frame the war in a very certain way not an invasion to take over a sovereign nation of russia's brothers and sisters but rather a rescue effort to save the ukrainian people from these aggressive villains who are really controlling the country okay i'm about to jump into the maps and look at how the war is actually playing out and help us understand it but i really really want us to keep in mind putin's story because it really will make everything click so let's just go over it really quickly putin's story is really four things number one ukraine really belongs to russia number two it has been hijacked by the us and europe i. e the west number three the west is controlling ukraine with its neo-nazi puppets also that the west military alliance called nato can use ukraine as a bridge to get to russia who they want to defeat and all of this leads to putin must invade to free ukrainians and protect russia from the west that is it that is the justification that vladimir putin has been building minutes after this second address last week where he laid out all of his justifications in the middle of the night the rockets start flying and the tanks start rolling [Music] and this is how it started what is becoming the most consequential war in europe since world war ii a pretend rescue effort framed as an operation to denotify the country russia comes in from all sides quickly taking over mostly rural areas but slowly moving towards the major cities the country is being attacked from all directions some of those russian troops are heading here to the capital in addition to tanks and troops taking over land russia also starts firing missiles that hit targets all throughout the country this has come out of nowhere who resist oh i tell you what i just heard a big bang right here the invasion the attack that russia promised would never happen has now started people who live in kiev are sleeping in underground subway stations it's the only place they feel safe ukrainians fled to basements to bomb shelters some people are adjusting to this new reality of living in a country now a war hundreds of thousands fled to the borders west of the country looking for safety others are taking trains to the west to get out of the country they are fleeing into neighboring countries like moldova romania and poland at the city's central train station a frantic dash as all of these people tried but wait remember putin's story according to this story after this initial invasion ukrainians were going to wake up from their slumber and welcome him with open arms the neo-nazi president was gonna flee and ukraine would be returned to russia putin becoming the savior of the russian motherland but that is exactly what didn't happen outgunned and outnumbered ukrainian soldiers and civilians alike are mounting a stiff resistance i used to teach maths and physics but two days ago the russian army took control of my town so i signed up to fight every day ukrainians are taking to the streets to fight for their homeland those russian shits come here she says we are ready to greet them we are ready to fight and like fights like hell this is my city this is my land i have to protect it you do not feel they're going to succeed in taking out your administration and your government no way as they will never take the response of ukrainians both military and civilian is where putin's story starts to crumble the entire world is witnessing the determined and brave resistance by the ukrainian army and population i have never seen ukraine said united and as for the president of ukraine the alleged neo-nazi drug addict thug puppet of the west well the u. s actually offered to airlift him out of the country for his own safety instead of taking the offer his response was quote the fight is here i need ammunition not a ride which by the way that quote has been turned into a t-shirt that you can buy on amazon ukrainians are fighting for love of country russians are fighting out of a fear of a dictator in the event of russia opting for escalation ukraine will defend itself he then sent a video around to the country of him in central kiev making it known that he is staying he is fighting so despite being totally outmatched militarily ukrainians are fighting back showing that the outcome of a war is as much determined by the courage and patriotism of the population as it is by the number of missiles and troops that you have [Music] i've been talking to people inside ukraine and seeing this devotion firsthand how is morale right now among you and among the people you're talking to honestly extremely exciting ukrainians aren't letting this conquest happen and in doing so they are turning putin's argument his story on its head and foiling what appears to be his initial strategy for wrangling ukraine back into his sphere of influence one ukrainian i talked to said that there's a waiting list for the ukrainian army our original defense won't accept any more people because it's packed the queues are growing you cannot you even get in right now men volunteering to fight molotov cocktails for those who want to fight but don't have a gun it's a tweet from the ukrainian defense ministry to prepare molotov cocktails to throw at the occupiers well i'm here in order to protect my family my country there is an incredible sense of unity here the morale is very high okay this sounds all positive and it is but this is still war and putin can still conquer a lot of land he can take over major cities install a puppet government and be the new ruler of ukraine he has the military to do it and he seems to have the tolerance for bloodshed he seems to believe in his fantasy story so much that he's gonna keep up this crusade but i'm here to tell you that putin has already lost this war i mean let's play this out so i can show you what i mean let's say putin keeps going he keeps sending troops in and missiles despite all of this resistance he could eventually take over the major population centers including the capital kiev all of this with the same goal that he's had the whole time which is getting the ukrainians to give up and realize that russia is actually the country they want to align with he's also kind of hoping that maybe the ukrainian military will come to their senses and take over the government and negotiate with putin but let's say they never do they probably won't instead they keep doing what they've been doing for the last week resisting defending condemning and broadcasting all of it to the world on the internet so putin has no choice but to drive the government out and install a pro-russian regime in order to do this he's going to need a massive military presence to keep control of these cities and their people it's now costing him tens of billions of dollars and crippling his economy which by the way is only like the size of texas i mean one of the biggest knocks on putin's plan is the sheer size of ukraine let's zoom out and realize that ukraine is huge it's the biggest country in europe if you don't count russia the giant country that extends into asia occupying this entire land mass would be basically impossible for russia so you have a map that maybe looks something like this which gives plenty of space for ukrainians to gather and mount their resistance giving russia hell for an indefinite period of time meanwhile back home in russia they've now seen the imagery from the ground they now see that putin's story justifying this invasion is total bs there's no nazis there's no brainwashing of the people instead in this scenario russians are thinking of deaths of our ukrainian brothers and sisters while also destroying the russian economy almost every russian has someone from ukraine either a friend or a relative or a colleague this is a war between brother nations protesters in the streets demonstrating against vladimir putin's invasion of ukraine on top of all of that the rich russian business guys who keep putin in power the oligarchs they aren't happy because the entire world has cut russia off russian billionaires moving their yachts scrambling their jets and shifting their assets to prepare for a possible crackdown they can't access their financial reserves their ability to move money is made much more difficult people aren't letting their trade vessels into ports new efforts by u.

s law enforcement to make russian oligarchs feel the pain of putin's war i mean this is effectively what sanctions do so the oligarchs are now like dude putin wtf and they put pressure on him to stop this madness but even still putin has enough power that he could still dig in his heels and keep trying to get ukrainians to come under his rule but by this point ukrainians are done with putin they see his true colors anyone who was on the fence before has now witnessed civilians being killed in putin's war of choice they won't come on his side now the upshot here is that there's not really a scenario where putin keeps going and gets what he wants and that's because the story that he based this invasion off of is proving to be totally wrong all of these assumptions that he predicated his war on turned out to be the delusions of a pseudo-history buff stuck in the logic of the cold war not the realities on the ground today at another point to the against putin camp meanwhile putin's war has united the west and nato like never before nato has a new sense of purpose a new thing to rally around something they've been looking for since the end of the cold war and ukraine who is currently getting tons of support and weapons and money and aid and refugee support from nato countries is now way more likely to sympathize with the west because now they've seen the realities of what putin has to offer which is falsehoods and unprovoked conflict all in the name of some ill-defined vision of former imperial glory nope it's my city it's my hometown it's my homeland it's my country and i'm not the one who should live the russians are the ones who should live russia is a great nation full of beautiful culture geography history and people the vast majority of those people don't want imperial style expansion and war they want to live their lives to prosper to connect and yet the warped delusional world view of one greedy man has cut off their ability to do that how is that possible the russian people have no say in the behavior of their government under the putin dictatorship these incredibly brave people often young people in russia who are out on the streets protesting against what their president is doing this is not the war by the people of russia it says yet another military adventure by the unaccountable unelected increasingly deranged dictator in a kremlin by the name of vladimir this situation is developing and certainly will take paths that no one can predict by the time you're watching this i'm sure some key development has happened that i haven't covered here but i feel pretty certain when i say that putin really doesn't have a path to the victory that he set out to achieve last week when he sent people and weapons across his border to attack his neighbors ukrainians with their bold courage have proved him wrong i know that sounds very poetic and maybe even cliche but in this case it's true if someone told me a week ago i would own an assault rifle i would not believe so now the world will stand by and support as they continue to wage this battle for the future of their land land that belongs to them not to a russian dictator [Music] for everyone to know it's our land it's our home we will defend it 13 ukrainian border guards defiantly telling and invading russian warship to go f yourself when asked to surrender and we will win russian ship go [ __ ] yourself before you go i want to tell you about two things that are important number one i want to give money to the relief effort in ukraine there's a lot of need right now i'm running a fundraiser where i'm going to match donations up to ten thousand dollars information in the description number two i need to thank today's sponsor who made this video possible thank you nordvpn for supporting this video a vpn is a useful tool that allows you to connect to the internet but through a different country it also allows you to surf the internet without being tracked and to do so more securely i 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