Game Theory Scene | 21(2008) | Now Playing

all right now who can explain Newton's method and how you use it uh you can use it to solve non-linear equations that's impressive that's that's really good I mean I'm very impressed by that especially since my class is called non-linear equations all right now somebody tell me something I don't already know anyone Bueller anyone dealer Newton stolen sorry Newton stole it Joseph rafson published the same method 50 years early if the start value is too far move from true zero then it fails I'm sorry what's your name Ben Campbell Ben so Ben Campbell suggests that

Joseph rafson was the original author of this method well if that's the case then why didn't he get any credit well for one thing Newton had a better publicist and for another after 1700 we know very little about raps and other than the fact that he discovered the Kabbalah about 300 years before Madonna all right now let's give Ben a chance for some extra credit shall we we're going to call this um the game show host problem all right Ben suppose you're on a game show and you are given a chance to choose from three

different doors all right now behind one of the doors is a new car behind the other two goats which door would you choose Ben door number one door number one Ben chooses door number one all right now the game show host who by the way knows what's behind all the other doors decides to open another door let's say he chooses door number three behind which sits a goat now then game shows comes up to you says Ben do you want to stay with door number one or go with door number two now is it in

your interest to switch your choice yeah well wait remember the host knows where the car is so how do you know he's not playing a trick on you trying to use reverse psychology to get you to pick a goat well I I wouldn't really care I mean my answer is based on statistics based on variable change variable change but he just asked you a simple question yeah it just changed everything Enlighten us well when I was originally asked to choose a door I had a 33.3 chance of choosing right but after he opens one of

the tours and then reoffers me the choice it's now 66.7 if I choose to switch so yeah take door number two and thank you for the extra 33.3 percent exactly people remember if you don't know which door to open always account for variable change now see most people wouldn't take the switch out of paranoia fear emotions but Mr Campbell kept motions aside and let simple math get his ass into a brand new car which is better than that goat you've been driving around campus all right everybody that's the end of the day thank you very

much you graded papers are down here at the end you can pick them up on your way out