Putin's capabilities are suffering, Ukraine can still win | General Sir Richard Shirreff

no it is not hopeless John because what you've outlined is classic if I may say so what you've outlined is what Russia absolutely wants you to state which is to portray the notion that Russia is somehow unbeatable and that Russia will always Vanquish and you don't believe that you second let's look at some of the facts let's look at the situation now let's say a very good afternoon to General Sir Richard sheriff who's a former NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander in Europe and to you Sir Richard good afternoon John you're very very welcome as always

I just want to ask you this do you judge it would be possible is it conceivably possible to go ahead with this multinational Force deployed into Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire unless America gives that security back up could it even happen I think we have to assume that America will not be part of it I think we have to assume after the events of the last 10 days that we cannot in any way count on America as an ally right that's Point number one point number two is that if and when there is

a ceasefire that will only come when Russia is forced into it Russia has already made it clear that it is not going to back down on any of its AIMS in other words the annexation of the four provinces of E in Ukraine uh a new government effectively by definition therefore a puppet government in K the demilitarization of of of Ukraine and a permanent neutralization of Ukraine in other words Ukraine as a client state of the US if and and and given that it seems to me impossible that there will be peace because the ukrainians and

president zalinsky cannot accept that right so that's the second point however if we get to the stage where Russia is forced to accept a ceasefire and that will only come about if Russia is given a serious bloody nose and we might discuss how you do that later then there is going to have to be a peace implementation force and a force to guarantee long-term Ukrainian security from Ukraine's allies yeah so we have to think now about how we we could possibly do that without America okay well that's a that's a contribution crowded with with with

significant thoughts uh Richard first of all you think the idea of a ceasefire is pretty much academic it's it's it it's not going to happen uh because you will not see Vladimir Putin seed control of of the dbass those those areas in the east of the country and still less Crimea and without that well there there'll be no ceasefire in which case Ukraine must fight on and now we see Donald Trump toying with the idea I say toying but he's considering apparently the idea of stopping military aid to Ukraine from from from Ukraine's point of

view Richard then in the event of the the fighting continuing that would surely be catastrophic it would be really really difficult for Ukraine no question about that Ukraine is dependent on the long range Precision missiles the Patriot air defense missiles the the attacks and the huge amount of ammunition and other capability that America has given so it would be really really difficult so what the only way around that is for Europe and Canada to do what they can to step up to the mark which requires the mobilization of Defense Industries and a serious doubling down

on uh Military Support to Ukraine now it's not going to fill the Gap left by The Americans but my friends in Ukraine tell me that they will go on fighting with or without us because they know that if they stop fighting Ukraine will die as a country and so they will continue with whatever they can and it's up to us now to give a give them whatever we can and I think what we've seen in the last few days if I may say so is real leadership from the government yes and from Dharma in setting

the conditions for that but we must go further so Richard I mean following your logic to its conclusion are you telling me that you believe and I'm putting it very boldly that Ukraine's position is now hopeless because if if Ukraine must fight on and you do not believe we're going to see conditions that would allow our seas far if Ukraine must must fight on well the contest is between Ukraine's capacity to replenish its fighting men and women and its Munitions and its equipment and Russia a cap capability of doing that and Russia has a machine

which is geared up significantly to replace the troops on the front line replace the arms and ammunitions very hard to see Ukraine winning that race even with with European support isn't it no it is not hopeless John because what you've outlined is classic if I may say so what you've outlined is what Russia absolutely wants you to state which is to portray the notion that Russia is somehow unbeatable and that Russia will always Vanquish and you don't believe that you hang on let's look at some of the facts let's look at the situation for the

last year and a half Russia has made glacial progress against the ukrainians yeah Russia by if on the current trajectory of casualties for Russia by 9th of May when Putin in all his vain Glory stands up on the Victory Parade a podium in Red Square Russia will have lost a million soldiers killed or wounded Russia's got by the calculations of The International Institute of strategic studies Russia's probably got about a Year's worth of armored vehicles left and most of those are ancient Soviet t-55s and BMP 1s and the like yeah the Russian army is dependent

for its logistic support on civilian vans on golf buggies and on donkeys the Russians are are really really strapped and if you then take into account the Russian economy and there are many who will have come on times radio who say that the Russian economy is like a leaky ship uh and is only kept afloat by by by by by Desperate Measures if you the so what for me then is if Ukraine if we can give Ukraine enough to survive and not to Blink Russia ultimately will blink so it is not hopeless but it depends

on how we in Europe and Canada respond we've made a good start but what that what what we've got to go on to do is design a properly thought through strategy which looks at what Ukraine needs looks at the gaps where the Americans are made and then we work out how we fill those gaps by whatever Desperate Measures need to be done and whatever sacrifices need to be done in our countries and the countries of our allies to achieve that so the situation is not hopeless what a fascinating analysis and what a challenge then to

the to to K and to the leaders of Europe appreciate your sharing that with us Richard that's general of Richard sherff former NATO deprem Supreme Ally commander in Europe now in the space of days American policy towards Ukraine has has Twisted it's turned it's stood on its head just have a listen to some statements by senior figures close to Donald Trump the Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson he echoed the suggestion President vadir zinski should resign well something has to change either he needs to come to his senses and come back to the

table in gratitude or someone else needs to lead the country to do that I mean it's up to the ukrainians to figure that out but I can tell you that we are we are re-exerting peace through strength president Trump has brought back strength to the White House we knew that this moment would come we worked hard for it to come and now it's here but we need these parties to um to go along with this and we need president zalinsky to do what is necessary this war has drug onone far too long he's lost hundreds

of thousands of people in including women and children we we've got to bring it into it and I I think our European allies are hoping that that is the case and we are as well Republican leader of the House Mike Johnson there now Donald Trump's Secretary of State Marco Rubio he rejected criticism of the president's policy all we're trying to do here is figure out whether a peace is possible the fir all these other things that people keep bringing up that'll have to be a part of a negotiation right now there is no negotiation shouldn't

we at least try to see if there is a way to end this war in a way that's acceptable to both sides and is enduring and sustainable how is that a bad thing I I really am puzzled why anyone thinks that trying to be a peacemaker is a bad thing it's only a bad thing when it's Donald Trump trying to do it when it's president Trump it's absurd to me mar ruia that in defensive mode let's say hi good afternoon to Tim Marshall the Foreign Affairs expert who's author of the prisoners of geography hello to

you Tim welcome back hi John Tim you want to to share your Reflections first of all on this historic moment Donald Trump Accused by The Wall Street Journal of retreating from the defense of freedom of siding with Putin and what are you thinking I'm thinking it was not inevitable if you had a different character but in historical terms it's not surprising um if you remove principles and shared values from your relationships with other countries what are you left with a cost benefit analysis I mean the Americans have always had that every country does its own

interest comes first but we have become used to in the last 808 decades we've become used to standing with the Americans and them standing with us partly because of our principles and our shared values so just push them out of the way because the particular characters in The White House do not have those principles or those shared values then put into this equation Cold War is Over the postc Cold War era the Americans aren't frightened of the Russians anymore it's China they worry about the Russians have proved they can barely get to the Dena River

never mind the Atlantic coast and as well as shared principles one of the reasons the Americans came into Europe in 1917 and again in uh 41 44 and then stayed for the Cold War they do not want one power dominating the continent to the extent it gets all the way to the Atlantic coast and then looks across to the American Eastern Seaboard that's not on the cards now Russia's proved it they can't even get to keev so at that point if you are a Maga trumpy person it actually makes sense now I disagree with that

fundamentally I I think we should still have the shared values and the principles I I think the Americans are actually better off if they can stick with us and indeed if we pay our own way which we haven't done but you can see how you can shape that argument John and from their perspective they're thinking we don't care about you y and I can understand how that argument might be might be deployed Tim in in a private dinner table conversation in Washington Washington DC but even that argument it leaves open the very very real fear

which and it is a real fear and real possibility that you're consigning Europe to what perennial tension perennial fear a perennial uh confrontation with with Moscow as as Putin tests his power against Europe and Europe European power would be depy we're now reading it's not confirmed and it hasn't happened him but that the president may be considering canceling military at Ukraine as he in indeed threatened to during his campaign in the run up to the inauguration he said I'm going to go to both sides I'm going to say you want peace and Putin has been

smart enough and I've argued this with you in the past John that he would always be smart enough to play ball knowing that the terms would be so awful for Ukraine that it looks as if zalinski isn't playing ball they then ambushed zinski who'd had an 11-hour train journey and about an 8 or 10h hour plane Journey they pushed him in in the white house with uh either to humiliate him to the extent that he he goes back home a humiliated figure and fall Falls by the wayside or he pushes back as indeed the Ukrainian

people wanted him to in which case the deals are off and it's the Russian side that the White House can make it look as if of being reasonable so I mean it it's it's awful but I go back to the idea you have to understand the Americans don't care this particular Administration yes does not care and so yeah no more weapons if they force the Europeans to pay for their own defense which Saka suggests we're going to do but I think may run into the long grass of European politics then it's win for the Americans

because they can keep the relationship together and we actually do pay our way if they don't fine do what you like we'll do a nice deal with Russia we don't really care about Russia anymore anyway if you can split Russia from China fine it is entirely transactional morality principles values are not entering into the the equation of this particular mindset and a personal view we need to Pony up some money Pony up some defense get through the next four years and hope that this is not the return of American isolationism it's just America's going through

its orange period yeah briefly John this is really important I reread Washington 1976 farewell address just this afternoon in that address he says and I've written them down here two things on relations with Nations to have as little political connection with them as possible and on Europe Why by interweaving our Destiny without any part of Europe and in what should we should entangle our peace and prosperity in their toils their rivalries this goes very deep in in in the American psyche okay Tim Tim it is always so so well so good to hear your your

thoughts and your analysis