Ex-Google CEOs Statement on 2025 AI Is Stunning...

in the next year you're going to see very large context Windows agents and text action when they are delivered at scale it's going to have an impact on the world at a scale that no one understands yet so next year is shaping up to be a Monumental year for AI 2025 is pegged to be the year that AI agents manage to become a reality we've seen Microsoft talk about Wave 2 and how they're preparing the workplace for AI agents you've seen open AI showcase various Demos in which their AI agents based around the 01 architecture are performing really well at doing certain tasks we've even seen recently that anthropic have launched clawed computer use a small tool that allows you to get clawed to control your computer and perform actions and in 2025 it's quite likely that we're going to have our chat GPT moment but for ages so with that being said let's get into what 2025 holds from this former Google CEO Eric Schmidt so Eric Schmidt is an American technologist entrepreneur philanthropist and Les known for his role as the CEO of Google from 2001 to 2011 he transformed Google from a startup into a Global Tech leader and served as an executive chairman until 2015 and as of 2024 his net worth is approximately 23. 7 billion now Eric schmidth has recently gone viral for talking about Ai and some of his statements actually pertain to the near future in which we're going to start to see things that are really incredible and in a talk he did at Stanford there's a small segment of that where he talks about 2025 and the future which we're going to experience and how much it's going to change thanks to Ai and I'm going to explain some of those content Now quickly right here you can see he talks about three things the first thing that he talks about here is very large context windows so here's why in a context window you can basically use that as short-term memory and I was shocked that context Windows get this long the technical reasons have to do with the fact that it's hard to serve hard to calculate and so forth the interesting thing about short-term memory is when you feed the the you ask it a question read 20 books you give it the text of the books is the query and you say tell me what they say it forgets the middle which is exactly how human brains work to right that's where we are now one of the things about context windows that actually manage to surpass my knowledge even as someone that pays attention to the AI Community was the fact that if we take a look at this paper here Google research actually did publish a paper that proposes a way to help language models handle much longer pieces of text without needing massive amounts of memory or slowing down too much so they published this paper called leave no context behind efficient infinite context Transformers with infinite attention so basically this is a paper that essentially talks about infinite context windows and essentially how they've done it is by changing what usual models do so current models focus on all the parts of the text that they're processing but it becomes very difficult when the text is very long imagine reading a book but trying to remember every single word you've read eventually it becomes overwhelming so they invented this new method which is likely to be deployed worldwide next year or variations of this method which is called infinite attention and this acts like a smart notepad that summarizes what the bottle has read so far and keeps only the essential points this allows the model to hold on to older information without storing every single detail just like making a sum M of a long story in order to remember the main point now infinite attention Blends immediate memory which is what the model is working with right now with this long-term summarized memory and it's as if the model can use both the short-term memory for quick details and the long-term memory for past important events it's efficient and really cool the memory doesn't grow endlessly it's kept within the limits by updating with new information in a way that the old important stuff doesn't get forgotten it's essentially stored more compactly and overall I think everyone understands why this is going to be so impactful now if we actually manage to get true infinite context Windows this would be absolutely incredible with AI systems in 2025 that have an infinite context window and memory we could maintain context of every previous interaction with a user forever you could develop genuine long-term relationships with AI by it remembering every single conversation and remembering all shared context it could also track your personal growth and evolution of ideas over years it could ingest and reason about entire libraries of human knowledge simultaneously and it could maintain context of entire code bases documentation bug reports and user feedback for massive system this would be particularly crazy and if this does happen in 2025 I think it's going to be a real game Cher for those in the AI space and this is another area where Eric Schmidt also talks about long context windows and the implications of infinite context windows and what they're going to be able to do in the future the context window is the prompt that you ask so you know study John F Kennedy or something but in fact that context window can have a million words and this year people are inventing a context window that is infinitely long and this is very important because it means that you can take the answer from the system and feed it in and ask it another question so I I want a recipe let's say I want a recipe to make a drug or something they say what's the first step and it says buy these materials so then you say okay I've bought these materials now what's my next step and then it says buy a mixing pan and then the next step is how long do I mix it for you see it's a recipe that's called Chain of Thought reasoning and it generalizes really well we should be able in 5 years for example to be able to produce a th step recipes to solve really important problem in science in medicine in Material Science climate change now next is where Eric schmidth says that next year is going to be focused on AI agents so take a look at what he says about AI agents and this thing he describes as text to action with respect to agents there are people who are now building essentially llm agents and the way they do it is they read something like chemistry they discover the principles of chemistry and then they test it and then they add that back into their understanding right that's extremely powerful let's first dive into agents so agents are systems that can take control of a computer and perform a variety of different actions this isn't entirely what agents can do but agents can also go off and perform certain tasks one of the agents that we've recently seen is one based around open a eyes o1 architecture recently we saw at an open AI demo we saw the 01 agent go ahead and order 400 strawberries I'm not sure if this tool is going to be released very soon but I do know that it's quite likely that this week 01 is probably going to be released with the full model of 01 wrapped in an agentic feature we could be receiving AI agents at scale now you can take a look at this demo and then I want to show you guys something as well this Rance Fant you tell me what flavors of strawberry dips you have available yeah we have chocolate vanilla and we have peanut butter wait how much would 400 chocolate covers 400 are you sure you want 400 yes 400 chocolate covered strawberries how much would that be I I think that'll be around like $1,415 . 92 awesome let's go ahead Le the order 400 chocolate cup strawberries great where would you like that delivered please deliver them to the Gateway Pavilion at Fort Mason and I'll be paying in cash one of the things that we also saw in a recent ask me anything that was from open AI was the fact that Sam mman said that the next breakthrough that is coming is AI agent someone asked what is the next breakthrough in the GPT line of product and what's the expected timeline he didn't State a timeline but he did state that we will have better and better models but I think that the thing that will feel like the next giant breakthrough will be agent of course you can hear from samman first but we know that other companies are working on this as well now of course one of the things that we've seen as well was of course Microsoft demoing their own AI agents that they plan on including in the Creative Suite in 2025 I'll show you guys a short clip of that right now but this is something that is going to be there very very pleased to announce today uh for the first time that we are taking the next big step in the AI platform with the announcement around autonomous agents that you can create in fact today uh you will see but this is where the autonomous agent comes in now an email comes in and the agent Springs into action what you see here is that it will begin to parse out the email moving through the ambiguity of human language to for instance find out what the engagement is about to check the engagement history to also map it to their industry standard terms and then finally to try and find the right person to take the next step within the firm with all of this information in hand the agent then go go about writing an email that takes all of this information and summarizes it for the receiving partner and what you see on the screen is exactly that in comes a whole bunch of human written email the agent processes it summarizes it and sends it to the right partner in The Firm to take that very next step now another thing that Eric Smith actually also spoke about was this thing called text to action as I mentioned is text action so I'll give you an example the government is in the process of trying to ban Tik Tok we'll see if that actually happens if Tik Tok is banned here's what I propose each and every one of you do say to your llm make me a copy of Tik Tok steal all the users steal all the music put my preferences in it produce this program in the next 30 seconds release it and in 1 hour if it's not viral do something different along the same lines that's the command boom boom boom boom right you understand how powerful that is if you can go from arbitrary language to arbitrary digital command which is essentially what python in this scenario is imagine that each and every human on the planet has their own programmer that actually does what they want as opposed to the programmers that work for me who don't do what I ask right the programmers here know what I'm talking about so imagine a non arrogant programmer that actually does what you want and you don't have to pay all that money to and there's infinite supply of these programs and this is all within the next year or two very soon those three things and I'm quite convinced it's the union of those three things it will happen in the next wave so that is going to be absolutely incredible I mean if we do have a software where you can literally say hey create me this and it does it that's going to be a complete Game Changer and for those of you who are thinking what I'm thinking you probably are familiar with the replit agent so essentially repet agent is an advanced AI power tool which is assisting users in building deploying and managing software applications with minimal manual intervention so unlike traditional AI coding assistants that Focus primarily on code generation or completion the repet agent takes a more autonomous approach handling the entire software development LIF this includes setting up the development environment writing the code installing dependencies configuring databases and deploying the application to the cloud all based on natural language prompts provided by the user now it's got key features one of the key features being that you know you can descri describe your app in completely plain language and then the repli agent will translate that into an actionable task such as writing code and setting up the necessary infrastru you've also got endtoend development the agent handles everything from scaffolding a project to deployment it can automatically configure environments install dependencies and deploy applications without requiring manual setup now users can interact with the agent through the process providing feedback or making adjustments as needed and the agent explains its actions and allows users to modify the steps now the crazy thing about all of this is that this is a system that aims to democratize software development by making it accessible even to those with little or no coding experience and this allows you to create any functional application within minutes now knowing what the repli agent can do and knowing just how good this piece of software is you have to think about the future implication when we have systems that are going to be able to do a lot of things autonomously what about when we have systems that are able to make software quickly perform a variety of different tasks I mean the possibilities with this are completely endless now another thing that Eric Schmidt actually says is that he says AI is actually underhyped so for those of you who think that there's this AI hype well I don't think you think that if you're on watching this video but a lot of people think that AI is just completely overhyped I think AI is really interesting and I think it is going to change the world and at the same time I hate the Hy Cycles so much that I really don't want to go there so my approach to AI right now is I will basically ignore it because I think the whole tech industry around AI is in a very bad position and it's 90% marketing and 10% reality but in this short clip you'll see that he says that the digital transformation coming to the economy the world and its implication are not yet understood I hate to tell you but I think this stuff is underhyped underhyped not overhyped the arrival of intelligence of a non-human form is really a big deal for the world and you think it's here it's coming it's here it's about to happen it happens in stages if you look how quickly though I mean well I we used to say 20 years now within five within five and the reason is the scaling laws for these systems are continuing to go up without any loss or degradation of power now there was also this recent clip where Eric Schmidt actually gives his predictions for the further future so this is basically the 3 to 5e timeline and in this short clip he actually discusses something that is completely I don't want to say outlandish because that would be the wrong statement but he says something that is quite hard to Fathom in theory he discusses this concept called recursive self-improvement and this is something that's discussed in AI that has widely been for the most part a Sci-Fi Trope where the AI exceeds all levels of intelligence to the point where humans have no idea what it's doing but Eric Smith predicts that this is going to be there 3 to 5 years from now and he wasn't the only one that said many others have also agreed with some of this so take a look at this short clip and I'm going to dive into you exactly what this means it's somewhere around in the industry It is believed that somewhere around 5 years no one knows exactly the systems will begin to be able to write their own code that is they literally will take their code and make it better and of course that's recurs I thought that is essentially a change in slope if you're going like this all of a sudden it goes like that it's reasonable to expect that within 6 to 8 years from now so 2030 right after that maybe 2032 the current growth rate it will be possible to have a single system that is 80 or 90% of the ability of a of the expert in every field so 90% of a physicist 90 of the best physicist 90% of the best chemist 90% of the best artists when you have such a thing you have a a nonhuman that is effectively smarter than any human because no human can dominate all of those fields maybe Leonardo da Vinci could but certainly not now um we don't know what happens when such a a thing exists but we know that that race is really important there are many many things that this thing we don't know what to call it except an AGI could do for example it could analyze uh cyber threats and develop new ones or it could protect against them it you could come up with new biological Solutions good ones or bad ones so there's both a national security component and a worry but also a notion of a huge step change in human efficiency and productivity I will assert that we as humans are not ready for the arrival of this we're just not ready for it now remember how in this clip right here Eric Smith actually talks about the fact that you're going to have of course agents infinite context windows and you're going to have of course systems that can program in a way that you've never seen before we also need to take a look back so what I did was actually looked at the current benchmarks for current AI systems in software engineering that brings me to the swe bench this is a benchmark that is of course about software engineering and essentially what this is is this is showing you the AI progress on the swe bench over time with the projections for future dates where the models are likely to be so let me show you guys exactly so currently you can see that this is the software engineering Benchmark leaderboard you can see that every single month that we increase we're getting small percentage gains on certain Frameworks that use current AI system each time an AI system is released we can see that there are major jumps in the capabilities of these systems on the specific benchmark so what I decided to do was I decided to ask Claude to actually plot all of these on a graph and I do know that this should be like a bit more widened down this artifact isn't of course the best but what you can look at is of course the projected dates for around 64% Claude is predicting that we're going to have that by December 2024 by of course February 2025 at the current rate of improvement we're going to be getting a 76% level on the swe bench and then of course another prediction by 2025 we're going to have 87.

8% on this Benchmark at that level and it's clear to see that if we continue at the rate of pace that we're going and some people think that things are speeding up it's quite likely that in 2025 the swe bench just completely gets demolished and we managed to solve it and that would be completely incredible but considering the fact that every single month there's around 2 to 3% gains across the board or like 5% it wouldn't be surprising if that actually does occur now of course is recursive self-improvement now there's one article that I constantly reference and this is one called the AI Revolution the road to Super intelligence by Tim herban this is a fascinating article that basically gives you a complete understanding of what super intelligence is and of course how crazy it is going to be an AI system at a certain level let's say human Village Idiot is programmed with the goal of improving its own intelligence and once it does it's smarter and maybe at this point it's at let's say it jumped to Einstein's level so now The Village Idiot instead of improving itself in a dumb way it's now got Einstein level intellect and this means it has an easier time improving its intelligence again and it means that next time it can make an even bigger leap and these leaps make it much smarter than any human allowing it to make even bigger leaps and as the leaps grow larger and larger and happen more rapidly the AGI SS upwards in intelligence and soon reaches the super intelligent level of an ASI system this is where we get the term intelligence explosion and of course it's the ultimate example of the law of accelerating return and this article goes on to state that super intelligence of that magnitude is not something we can remotely even grasp anymore than a bumblebee can wrap its head around kesian economics and in our world smart actually means an IQ of 130 plus and stupid means an IQ of 85 but we don't have the word for an IQ of 12,952 so if that ever does happen what on Earth is going to happen to society and that's precisely why Eric Smith said that we are not ready now this article also states that if our brains were able to invent Wi-Fi than something 100 or 1,000 times or a billion times smarter than we are should have no problem controlling the POS the positioning of each and every atom in the world in any way it likes at any time everything we consider magic every Power we imagine a supreme god to have will be as mundane an activity for the ASI as flipping on a light switch is for us creating the technology to reverse human aging curing disease and hunger and even mortality reprogramming the weather to protect the future of all Earth are suddenly all possible now for those of you that don't believe that remember Sam alman's recent blog which he titled the intelligence age now this blog was essentially something that he posted on actually you know a couple years before where there was a 2021 post which actually describes what we are living through now and in that post he titles that AI is going to be able to summarize things read legal documents write blogs immediately and now he's stating that this might turn out to be the most consequential fact about all of history so far it's possible that we will have super intelligence in a few thousand days it may take longer but he's confident we will get and I don't think that this is something that is you know a bit too ridiculous to say considering the fact that there are many other individuals that are also considering super intelligent we also have the very notorious Ellas satk who started his company safe super intelligence Inc who raised a billion dollars from Sequoia DSD Global and SV Angel and they think that super intelligence is Within Reach and one of the things that I do wonder is what was the pitch deck like pitch deck is basically where you show your investors what you're working with the product road map and essentially why you should be investing in this company it's clear that whatever Discovery was made at opening ey it's a Monumental Discovery because it now means that these companies are actually believing that look we don't even need to worry about AI we're shooting straight for artificial super intelligence and samman actually has a few predictions on the year 2030 that I think you'll want to see I think in 5 years there's an unbelievably rapid rate of improvement in technology itself you know people are like man the AGI moment came and went whatever the like the the pace of progress is like totally crazy and we're discovering all this new stuff both about AI research and also about all of the rest of Science and that feels like if we could sit here now and look at it it would seem like it should be very crazy and then the second part of the prediction is that Society itself actually changes surprisingly little an example of this would be that I think if you asked people 5 years ago if computers were going to pass the terrain test they would say no and then if you said well what if an oracle told you it was going to they would say well it would somehow be like just this crazy breathtaking change for society and we did kind of satisfy the tur test roughly speaking of course and Society didn't change that much it just sort of went mushing by and that's kind of a example of what I expect to keep happening which is progress scientific progress keeps going outperforming all expectations and Society in a way that I think is good and healthy um changes not that much in the long term it will hugely change what about what moat said the Egyptian entrepreneur and writer he previously served as a chief business officer for Google and is the author of the book called scary smart which actually talks about how smart AI is going to become chat GPT 4. 5 was an IQ of 155 Elon Musk is 155 Einstein is 160 you now have a tool that has a memory capacity that exceeds all of Humanity's history linguistic intelligence is not the only form of intelligence but we are working in 2024 you will see solutions to deep uh reasoning you will see solution to complex mathematics you saw Gemini from Google and the idea of multi- input and multi output and the thing is even if we don't have any new breakthroughs if we just throw more compute and more data on the machines we will continue to grow uh exponentially for the next four or five years Chad GPT 3. 5 to 4.