Humanoid Robots, the Job Market & Mass Automation - The Current State of AI w/ Emad Mostaque | EP114

ai's capabilities will soon accelerate at an unfathomable rate making today's Tech look like Stone Age tools AI is complicated and hard and scary intelligence is like electricity it's like clean water it becomes available to everyone how do you quell the fears or should we have fears about jobs are you embracing that technology to do more and create more value or not what's it going to feel like when you're seeing humanoid robots walking around the streets all around you all the time actually this is the real existential threat to humanity 10 billion robots and a bad

firmware upgrade you [Laughter] know everybody Welcome to moonshots today my guest is Imad mustak the previous CEO of stability AI the founder of shelling point and the author of a recent white paper called how to think about AI this is a paper I found extraordinarily compelling concise and really something that I encourage you to read we're going to dive into it going to talk about uh investing in AI talk about International cooperation talk about something called centors which is AI human collaboration talk about the growth and the speed are we getting to AGI and when

uh one of my favorite conversations it runs two hours because it was just an incredible master class in thinking about Ai and if you love conversations like this please subscribe by the way at the time of this recording my blood glucose level is 97 which is exactly where I wanted I like keeping it low and flat below 105 if I can I use the levels app to help me measure that to understand what food causes my blood glucose and my insulin to spike and what doesn't um if you're interested my team is going to link

to levels in the description below all right onward to the episode hey mod good to have you back on moonshots uh it's been some time uh you in London today yeah I'm in London thanks for having me back it's always a pleasure yeah last time we spoke uh you had just steep down as the CEO of stability and I know that you've been busy and in particular the paper you just put out on how to think about AI I think is uh is a incredibly cogent and beautifully written paper um I'd like to discuss that

today and I want to start by quoting some of the elements in the paper here for folks who have not yet gotten to it um you say let's be clear humanity is standing at the edge of the most transformative events in history it's a wakeup call A road map a vision of our imminent future rolled into one he said there will be an AI explosion 100 billion AI agents and a billion robots are the current models they're just the appetizer ai's capabilities will soon accelerate at an unfathomable rate making today's Tech look like Stone Age

tools no industry is safe I love this last one here the cost of intelligence is plummeting the value of human Ingenuity in applying these new resources will Skyrocket it will shortly become one of the most important skills you can have it's time for Urgent decisive action to harness the benefits and mitigate the risks of this AI tsunami so that's what your paper is about and anyone who is hasn't read yet I highly commend it to you uh we're going to dive into all of these elements let's begin Imad why did you write this paper I

wrote this paper because AI is complicated and hard and scary and I thought it would be great to have a framing that the average person could understand and how it applies to them and their lives and their part within it because I think you know one of the things I mentioned in the paper is that there's a lot of talk about AI agents and all this but not our own agency within this it can be far and remote where everyone's talking about supercomputers and national state things and super Geniuses running it whereas this is a

technology that's coming into every one of our lives every single day and there seems to be a disconnect there so I wanted to create this piece of initial framing to try and bridge that I love that and I know this is the Prelude to a much deeper paper that you're working on that you'll release sometime this fall which I'm excited about talking about on our next conversation we get together um I think AI the subject of AI is pervasive I mean it's the topic of dinner tables and boardrooms and executive suites in the financial markets

and I think you're right people really have very little context on how to think about it other than open Ai and Google and anthropic and just the names Nvidia but how it affects them you know Ray kwell talks about this idea of the singularity which he puts out into the 2040s but there really is an AI Singularity coming too right it's a point at which the tech is moving so fast it's super hard to understand what's going to happen what life will be like on the back end of that do you agree with that yeah

I agree completely because it's a pervasive systemized technology just like writing just like reading but it's got context suddenly that emerges so taking this podcast and translating into dozens of languages is an amazing thing but in our own voices that could be done now you know having technology that has real world impact in being as good as any call center worker or being allowing you to create any song on any topic within seconds is something we've never really seen before for but it isn't just constrained to these giant supercomputers and companies and things like that

because we're actually seeing this technology emerging on our consumer laptops we're seeing this technology being able to use by people in emerging markets and others to build brand new experiences around and I think that's something crazy that is leveraging the existing infrastructure and again we're just at the early stages of that impact yeah how big is AI today and how big is it going to get in terms of either Financial or uh you know whatever parameters you want to give it I think if you kind of look today the total amount spent training models of

all types in generative AI this new type of AI that we figured out is probably in the order of $10 billion the total amount that's been spent on self-driving cars is in the order of magnitude of $100 billion and the total amount that was spent on 5G is a trillion dollar so even though we hear the numbers going around of giant training runs and big investment and there been estimates of 100 billion of gpus bought for training and running these models it still feels like early innings for what is technology that can really amplify and

accelerate the capabilities of any individual because they can direct these swarms these armies these groups of AI agents and soon physically embodied robots which is insane to think about yeah I want to get into what does the average person think about this and how do you use it besides you know chat GPT or Gemini you know and is it too late to invest in this right we have a lot of folks who are asking you know how do I get involved in this but let's let's paint the picture still as you do in your in

your in your paper about where it's going one of the one of the uh Big Ideas that you speak about and actually you're on stage at at abundance 3 abundance 360 speaking about this is the explosion of AI agents that are coming um this concept of the AI Atlantis uh I find that compelling I find that enticing and somewhat scary if you don't understand the implications what is that on me what are these billions of AI agents in AI Atlantis yeah I think AI Atlantis was coined by Nat fredman on stage former CEO of GitHub

when we had that panel together Peta and it's we've discovered this new continent and the best way to think about these AIS is they're like interns they're like grads we keep treating them like they should be professors or phds but they're just in the early stages of coming out of high school these supercomputers are high schools right but there's a 100 billion of them and we can get them to do all these little tasks but anyone knows who's had grads and interns we have to teach them before they can do anything and once they learn

the processes that's when you have agents that can go out and do jobs for you that can translate something into different languages so you can reach a bigger audience in seconds or that can paint pictures for you or do SEO you know that can be your call center worker and so the first step was to teach them their liberal arts degree now we're specializing them we're optimizing them and the cost I mean I think open just showed that the cost of gpt3 originally versus the latest version GPT 4 has dropped a thousand times literally a

thousand times it's almost too cheap now so we have this new continent and all these work workers are coming that can do jobs as reasonably as any graduate what does that mean for your personal life your company your country well it's simple economics there's a massive amount of supply of intelligence and capability and Rule following coming cuz these don't sleep all they need to be fed is a few flops of you know computer and electricity how would your life change if you had a really good group of graduates and then they will only get smarter

they'll only get better at following ingredients and soon they have physical bodies as well when you look at Optimus when you look at unry and the other robotics companies coming let me dive into this a little bit uh deeper the idea of this AI Atlantis uh uh this continent of 100 billion AI graduate students AI agents that can do your bidding for you like you said you're you're feeding them uh you're feeding them power and data instead of pizza uh how how much agency will they have uh how will we be able to drop them

into jobs um to drop them in and say hey you're part of my marketing team you're my admin you're my finance person how far are we away from having competence there and how will that how will we see that develop I think that we're not far at all we just had to get to a certain level of performance on the base models of the base degrees so again I think the best way to think about these are liberal arts graduates they've had a diverse education because we've literally shown them the whole internet right there are

the trillion ions of words that go into the gpts or the billions of images that go into the image models or hundreds of millions of songs and now we're specializing them and these are the workflows that we see because like when I started as a programmer 20 God three years ago if um we didn't have GitHub and libraries and the way programming is now which is like you pull from pre-made building blocks and you put it together we wrote directly to the computer we had these very lowlevel build bu blocks that now people have made

into houses and you know Lego blocks that come together similar it's with AI we had to go to certain level of performance of the base models and now people are chaining the base models together in repeated processes the integrating it with lookups for databases they're learning from how people are experiencing things if you compare chat GPT now to chat GPT a year ago well it's just 2 years old now right M there's a massive difference because it's learned from how people have used it and they're actually paying people for specialist use cases so I think

that you see hundreds thousands of companies deploying these pipelines right now and they'll standardize very very quickly I've heard described you might bring in an AI agent um and when they plug into your business they'll read all of your past email traffic they'll read all your slack channels you'll they'll be up to the speed on everything ever said in your company in the marketing domain and then there'll be a point where you're you're slacking them and you're speaking to them and maybe even zooming with them as if they were a member of your team uh

is that a good description yeah so like um apps like Lindy doai do that pretty much already but as we get more integrated that'll be even more because face for instance your data R sits in an Amazon bucket Amazon roll out services within the next year that allow you to take literally a snapshot of all of that and will give you your own personalized agent that you own that you can talk to on slack and it will retrieve all this information instantly we're seeing Snowflake and data bricks again build this type of technology and implement

it and Microsoft with its agents in office these are all coming through literally in the next year so again at a graduate level we shouldn't expect more than that and again sometimes they make mistakes you know sometimes they try too hard we will have these agents coming through true the single shot thing is very interesting as well because we're now making it a little bit superhuman so Google with its Gemini model now that's just outperformed open a eyes model for the first time so it's the top performing model which is very interesting has what's known

as a 2 million to 10 million token context window mhm a token is like 0.7 words so let's say it's a million words of instructions you can give it when when we first started we can only give 2 to 4,000 words now we can upload whole movies we can upload the entirety of the entire bookshelf and everything you've ever said Peter and we don't have to tune the model anymore it can look at it all at the same time and say this is how your speaking style has evolved over time you know or these are

the most impactful things you've said and point to the different parts of that this is where you seem like maybe you've been traveling a bit too much at tired jite you know I I think one of the interesting things though is if you do train up an AI agent um uh having had to consume all of your corporate knowledge and all of the previous phone conversations your sales agent or marketing person would have had and know all the context and you like what they're what that AI agent is doing you can replicate 10 of them

a 100 of them a thousand of them instantly um so you know the implications there we'll get to conversation jobs I think it's really important but we also I think as an entrepreneur we have a lot of entrepreneurs listening to moonshots uh the idea that there will be you know the one two or three person unicorn um that comes online how do you think about that potential I think it's 100% going to happen in the next year or two because I mean ultimately anyone who's an entrepreneur knows that the key bottleneck is simply Talent MH

and there is the chef talent that comes up with cre creative things and brand new recipes and there's the cooks and you just want them to do their jobs and you want them to do their jobs well like there's a sales function that humans are still going to be good at for maybe a period of time but all of the day-to-day stuff like the content shall we say versus the creativity the AI can follow instructions much better which allows you to scale much better again as an example media there is no reason in a year

from now that every piece of media isn't translated into every Maj language the next day with your voice in there and a transcript I know we're starting to do that with this podcast uh but you're right it's it's every language eventually almost instantly and then but that what does that do to your audience we can we can even do it live now your audience suddenly goes from just the English speakers to every language right and then that increases your funnel every business is a repeating process where you know it's all about cost going in versus

value going out and and as you said if it's if you can replicate this agent a 100 times it isn't like hiring a 100 graduates or 100 sales Specialists you push a button and you get them for cents or dollars and by the way you can it can be you know increase the number during your peak season and drop them off without cost during your offseason let's talk about jobs for a second you know in the paper you say uh you know AI automation puts 300 million full-time jobs at risk and then you go on

to say the adoption of AI is going to to create 97 million jobs by 2025 so I think one of the biggest fears people have is about the job market and um and we you know what most of us don't realize is uh that most of the jobs that we all do today didn't exist um even 10 20 years ago uh and we've completely disrupted and reinvented what humans have done for Millennia uh but the pace of change here is a lot faster um what are your thoughts how how do you quell the fears or

should we have fears about jobs I think it's a pace thing as you said we've always responded you know it's been said that there's only two types of jobs you know or things there are things that you need for living and there's things you need for entertainment in a way right the survive and thrive elements here like we have had such an improvement in our standard of living and even a reduction in the number of hours worked and we've created brand new Industries and service sectors and more but the pace of this is insane but

if we look at it from a localized perspective what's a danger initially is the Outsource jobs and the entry level jobs because this is where that technology we've discovered this new continent and they work for electrons right they work for you know GPU hours in the intermediate Med level you can be so much more productive which means that you can have more Supply and more demand of that stuff and then if you're a leader that can really leverage this technology bring it together and think about how am I creating value you become a multiplier and

so I think this is net aggregate massively impactful for economies but we have to really look at what does our generation that has been taught to be a programmer do when this technolog is as good as any graduate programmer you know what does it do when again any graduate job in that you can do via screen the AI can probably do better better in a year or Outsource jobs as well for the global South I get it um but still they're going to be fierce I remember you were on the Abundant stage with me I

think it was two years ago and you said look we're not going to have any programmers in 5 years and that was like front page across India um you know and it caused fear and of course we're not going to have the oldfashioned programmers which are just humans on their own it will be AI human Partnerships that are doing the programming but let's talk about where you think um should people have some level of concern about the job market or do you think as we have done decade after decade Century after Century uh We've invented

brand new approaches to jobs no 100% I mean again technology is an enabler and so it's just about are you embracing that technology to do more and create more value or not like what would an accountant be who didn't use Excel or a spreadsheet you know mhm like it doesn't make sense for a salesperson doesn't use a phone this is just a technology it is and it's up to us to embrace it and create even more value that way again the nature of jobs will change in your Tau generalized computer science terms I think again

we're two years into our fiveyear prediction right yeah um so we got three more years I don't think you need to learn even now if you use CLA and the artifacts feature from anthropic it will create programs on the Fly for you and you just talk to it like a human and it adjusts them Deon is another one that's similar do you need to know the specific magical spells of a programming language anymore no why would you you have this assistant but what are you trying to do you're trying to build software to do a

job that's all that matters and again when I first did it 23 years ago we didn't have GitHub or any of these things where you could reuse code you almost coded it from scratch every single time directly on the thing and this is how we do it we build houses from scratch but then we learn how to build houses you know in our company we do something brand new but it goes to our institutional knowledge it's just now we can localize this knowledge so I think that the key thing here is just expl the Flor

will raise and if you don't Embrace this technology then you're going to be left behind you're going to be left High you know low and dry I think it was one of the points that we we spoke about at length you know the way I put it bluntly is there going to be two kinds of companies at the end of this decade those that are fully utilizing Ai and those that are out a business do you agree it's that black and white I think it is that black and white I don't think we've got to

the competitive stage yet because it was build the basic building blocks first now starting to bring them together and then proliferate the technology but in the next few years we will see that competitive tension or companies can outperform because their core Loops are embracing AI so they can do it better faster cheaper and you know the global economy doesn't look too hot today so it's going to be highly competitive if you could reduce costs and have higher Revenue yeah you'll app for real quick I've been getting the most unusual compliments lately on my skin truth

is I use a lotion every morning and every night religiously called one skin it was developed by four PhD women who determined a 10 amino acid sequence that is a cytic that kills scile cell in your skin and this literally reverses the age of your skin and I think it's one of the most incredible products I use it all the time uh if you're interested check out the show notes I've asked my team to link to it below all right let's get back to the episode I'm always looking for analogies um that are understandable uh

you know I think 100 years ago when we started to electrify electrify the nation people took every possible mechanical process uh clothes washing dishwashing drills and added electricity to it and and if you didn't have that electrical adjunct you out of out of uh out of the leadership I'm not sure you're out of job you're out of leadership and then it was the do Revolution that did it again any other analogies that seem appropriate other than those for you well again this is a it's the nature of Technology you go from having something that is

single generalized to more and more specific automated optim IED you can ride a horse so you can travel more distances you know you don't need telegrams anymore because you've got the phone we're a constant species where we bring this technology to enhance our individual capabilities someone from a couple hundred years ago would die of shock uh what we're capable of today on an individual basis but again we adapt we improve and this is why our GDP has gone up so much our standard of living has gone up so much have we solved everything no but

everything from The Agrarian to the industrial to the do com revolution has embraced that and the AI Revolution I think is one of the biggest indicators of that as well because intelligence is like electricity it's like clean water it becomes available to everyone you made this point and I I love it it be you know you said listen intelligence needs to become National infrastructure Global infrastructure can you describe what you mean by that so the internet is this information super highway but now this intelligence and these agents and this technology if you've only got a

few capable of using it and it's not and it represents only a few outputs and a certain few viewpoints then you could have an entire hundreds of millions billions of people that don't have access to that technology they're Left Behind even more it will exacerbate these gaps however if we make sure it's distributed and open then it raises all boats because it isn't centralized and controlled so for example uh open AI has done many great things but they banned all ukrainians from using di 2 their image generation software for 9 months and all Ukrainian imagery

imagine if they were the only image creation software it would mean that there would be a whole nation that they create Imes quick it was they' never applied to me but I think it was caution around sanctions and other elements and this technology is now being weaponized in terms of politically you know is it like is this a nuclear weapon is this a deep fake creation machine but again who's deciding on this technology is it a right to have access to augmented intelligence is it a right to have access to electricity water we're not doing

great as a species we're doing better you know hundreds of millions of people are still malnourished a bill over a billion people still don't have internet access but I think that if we can make intelligence available to everyone there's no problem you can't solve but more than that people will be able to solve it themselves which I think is amazing yeah it's I I love that you know Define an entrepreneur as someone who finds a problem and solves a problem and the more empowered entrepreneurs uh the better the world is and the more problems that

are solved you know there's an interesting point I've I've tweeted actually Peter I think you know it's a force multiplier right because anyone can change the world if they can convince other people to follow them right that's how you create companies you create movements and more and again we now have this new continent where the people will follow you these entities will follow you to do things so anyone can be a force multiplier and that's crazy to think about because if you are in an underprivileged area you don't have the people around you that are

skilled how will you hire them and get them to come to your company to come to your movement whereas now they're available to everyone yeah it used to be where you know where you were born um whether you're Town had a library or a phone or even Transportation the color of your skin your gender all those things determined your ability your agency to to to create a purposeful and meaningful life and this is that you know Google came first and and and uh and cellular phones came next and now this is a major Force multiplier

there's an interesting point that i' I've noted and it still blows me away um I think of generative AI today today is the world's most powerful technology and I'm um I think the right word is flabbergasted that it's free that effectively the world's most powerful technology is available to for free to anyone with a smartphone you know if I gone back 20 years ago and and described what we' have today with Gemini and and and chat GPT and all of that and said how much do you think it's going to cost per month to use

this technology um I would have never guest uh zero does that surprise you this astonishing I mean what is we have this concept of hey I want to make a picture I want to make music I want to write an essay and it costs X number of man woman hours right yeah yeah all of a sudden it costs nothing the thoughts to the creation process sure you can spend a week and make it even better but to get to an 8020 now is almost instant for any modality yeah like again we're not talking about perfection

but you don't expect your graduates to be perfect on their output from drawing to coding to anything that rapid iteration is just something that's beyond belief because again when you look at these models it's just a few gigabytes and they can run on your smartphone and it does seem something's wrong with that energy equation right energy is that much down to nothing the economic equation is what really bugs me the value where were extracting I mean Google did that and it monetized on Advertising but it also uplifted Humanity in such an extraordinary World um you

know I just came back from India where uh Geo their 5G network has demonetized data and Communications an extraordinary rate and so we're we are seeing this this abundance equation of digitization dematerialization demonetization democratization over and over and over again and this is the ultimate one um and I'm just you know it feels like we haven't been able to even understand a fraction of 1% of the implications of this so you think about the energy that's taken to put a doctor through school right and the cost of that millions of dollars in the US and

that expertise can a decade that expertise can suddenly be available and replicable at a push of a button through an digital Ai and soon an AI doctor and surgeon that outperforms human doctors and empathy there's this relationship between energy and GDP per capita so that's pretty much a straight line and just energy is is output of power available to the society per person yeah per person yeah so the more energy you have per person the higher your GDP because you could build stuff but then more than that you can support service Industries and things like

that you can support the million dooll doctors with a decade of work yet all of a sudden the energy equation for intelligence has collapsed to nothing Google and the previous internet reduce the cost of consumption of content down to nothing and that's why they could have ad and other models to have that go they want your attention shall we say and you're purchasing on the other side now the cost of creation almost has dropped to nothing not creativity necessarily but the creation of information of knowledge you know and again not novel knowledge it's just how

can we distribute this because we never have enough doctors we never have enough good doctors MH and again we're not talking about great doctors I think all these discussions of AGI are like superhumans and the top 0.1% I just want an average doctor to be available to everyone an average teacher to be available to everyone but the average level to be really much better than it is right now well I I get it but I believe you know I spend a lot of my time in the intersection of AI and health as do you we

have that in common that um that there is no way that any human doctor can integrate the the gigabits of data that come out of a current uh you know digital upload um understanding all of the blood chemistries your genomics your Imaging data but in AI Can it can contextualize all of that and then give you uh some root cause analysis so I I think that that we're not far away from having the average AI doctor be better than most all Physicians um out there uh I think we're we're there pretty much now it just

hasn't been integrated if you look at the benchmarks from Radiology to this to that and the long context window work but again this is the exciting thing is you go from Individual models to pulling them together so you have your own medical team yeah you're not just calling on one doctor and we see this with the technology as well like we had gigantic models we still got them with the bin Llama but now we're moving to mixture of experts and routing two expert models that are experts these are these are agents and sub agents there's

an there's an AI Radiology you know x-ray uh radiologist agent and one for MRIs and one for CTS um and one for blood chemistries and one for genomics and all of them are being pulled together as your medical team yeah and they have common language to talk to each other and you know the outputs are checked as well like in medicine before we get do AI doctors making diagnoses every diagnosis by a human doctor should be checked by AI there no AR against that it's going to well I think it's going to be malpractice to

not have ai in the loop um in in some number of single digit years because it will save it will save lives humans make mistakes um they just can't deal with the amount of data it's not the way it used to be um and if you can know because you get access to to the data I I think there's an obligation to do that yeah I mean it's because because we could we can only have I mean we all know that physician scroll is unintelligible AI is just catching up with that right now right the

information flow from that hourong they teach you that in medical school by the way it's just a few lines right we lose all that context and all that rich context so is anywhere in the world maybe found found in health that you can go and see your lung Radiology over time and how it progresses we just saw I think a paper come out that showed that you could detect breast cancer up to 5 years before cuz they just dumped it and it just analyzed every smallest piece of things you can't see how the world evolves

because the lack of context from black and white scroll made it so our Medical Systems assume ergodicity a thousand tosses of the coin of the same as single coin costs a thousand times but humans are individual we're complex systems but one gets 500 migs of paracetamol you know we don't care about things like cyto p450 abnormalities that mean you metabolize Codine into morphine or fenil into death you know yeah I mean there there really needs to be a genomics agent before you take anything other other thing which people don't realize you feel like when you

get prescribed a particular medicine for a particular situation that you assume it's going to work but the fact of the matter is it works in about a third of the individuals if you're lucky it was enough for the FDA to approve it uh but no guarantee it works for you um you know the other thing that you that you wrote in your paper and I don't want to let it go unsaid is besides this uh this exponential rise of AI AGI ASI whatever we want to call it is the emergence of humanoid robots um we've

got uh you know probably on the order of 20 plus well-funded humanoid robot companies you mentioned unry in China we've got Tesla building Optimus here we've got figure which just is releasing figure 2 um and if you know elon's not necessarily been correct on his timing all the time but he's been correct on pricing and and it's you know sort of a dollar per kilogram for a certain level of complexity and his projection for Optimus is $10,000 a unit let's double it give 100% margin to $20,000 a unit that's something that you could rent for

100 bucks a month having a humanoid robot running the highest level AI model accessible 24/7 and that's going to change the world yeah I think this is the thing the embodied agents and the advances we've seen there now with on device and Cloud AI now being able to do segmentation analysis robotics like it's here all of a sudden all at the same time we see we see this actually in history a lot where the same breakthrough just happens in different places almost and we're seeing this all the time in AI where you see literally just

breakthroughs because the control problem in robotics is pretty much there now yeah for 90% of use cases again not 100% but these robots can manipulate they can read a recipe now we've seen and they can just make the recipe from the instructions with full autonomic control and they can do autoaggressive learning as well in swarms so unry have that and others are implementing that where one robot learns from the tasks of others which is insane about insanely powerful you know bringing back to health you know the best surgeons in the world will be humanoid robots

eventually that can see an ultraviolent infrared didn't have too much caffeine that morning no fights with the boyfriend or girlfriend the night before and it's the capex and the cost of electricity and then all of a sudden this robot is a surgeon in multiple distant villages India and Africa um with the highest surgical skills and like you said if you know people should know this the number one question you ask your surgeon when you're interviewing them is how many times do you do the surgery and if they're all operating on a single operating system then

the robots all share the same millions of operations they've done yeah and this is again a collective knowledge where it's taught through medical school but an AI will obviously be able to teach other AIS much better and if we can standardize that then that's when it can go massive and it comes then down to just a production line process it's like xiaomi you know the smartphone manufacturer in China they thought they were going to be added to us sanctions so they decided to diversify into electric vehicles and then China's industrial pris means they now make

really good electrical Vehicles like you will see these industrial Giants move forward and produce Millions tens of millions hundreds of millions of robots and the Really fascinating thing is that helps with the demographic issues of China and Japan and places like that at exactly the right time exactly the right time and you know the predictions we've seen from uh from the from Elon and from the CEO of figure is you know as much as 10 billion humanoid robots by uh in the 2040s more as many as there are humans uh I asked a friend of

mine Imad and I'll ask you what's it going to feel like when you're seeing humanoid robots walking around on the streets all around you all the time it's just going to be weird isn't it like we already see these little ones going around that are not humanoid but there's no reason you can't make them indistinguishable by 2040 it's really sci-fi I mean actually this is the real existential threat to humanity 10 billion robots in a bad firmware upgrade you know what good B all of the all of the like scenarios literally that's the one that

can get us all I I think there should be some checks extra checks and balances there um you know my when I asked my other friend that question what's it going to feel like uh he said normal and I I think you know we're going to have these moments of freak out I remember I got a model X with the gowing doors and in the first month everybody's like you know staring at it like oh my God that's amazing and then you know it becomes normal it becomes normal I mean and again like there's different

things in different cultures in Japan the robots are very much side by side or you part of a Gundam whereas we have this Terminator concept of robots or AI God in the west but ultimately as you said like people are used to being able to type in words and make magical images in two seconds now or using chat GPT for your homework like you just talk to some of these kids and they're like yeah just use it you know like there's an initial shock and then all of a sudden the magical becomes mundane I think

we're very good at adapting to that with our filters but 10 billion robots means that there is I think one of the ways to really think about this is how much energy do you need to put in your own physical mental energy for a job to be done MH and it's collapsing everywhere the amount of energy that we need to do productive things which means we can do so much more productive things you know I think the the scarcest resource in the world is time you know I'm working on it from the longevity standpoint of

how do we add more years AI will be the most impactful agent in how in how we create we reach longevity escape velocity but I think people need to realize that we've been buying back time with technology you know Google saved us hours of going to libraries looking for that book and zoom is is you know normally you and I would have to F flown me to London or you to LA to have this conversation instead it's micros seconds of you know click and we're it together um so it's about buying back time which is

our most scarce resource well I think there's two things there's time but there's also focus and flow which I think are the other two interesting parts of that tell me so we know how useful an amazing Chief of Staff or EA is and everyone will have their own one so like how do you live longer well first of all exercise and eat well mhm but you know you don't have that person The Entity that you trust telling you and Advising you sometimes so you cheat you feel down Etc no one will ever need to be

alone again and can have a persuasive agent next to them which is something insane to think about that knows exactly how to talk to you to put you into good habits and it might be physical embodied as well it might cook your breakfast and everything like how difficult is it to have healthy meals all the time that are fresh it's hard with robots it's easy $100 a month as you said yeah and that's kind of crazy to think about from that longevity perspective but then it's about our own biggest enemies are ourselves you know like

I took off a few months because I need to clear my head and then read everything and now I'm compressing it and putting it out and off we go again if I'd had all the help that I needed and it's not like the people around me didn't help I would have done even better but everyone now can have access to that which is going to be amazing for Global mental health if we do this correct and the capability of people to just achieve so much more by having that focus and flow talk about flow a

little bit more how do you think about flow and and do you think humans can enter flow with AI Partners AI agents I think 100% like when I talk to all the creatives you know stability is one is generative media leader how do the top artists use the AI do they use it to just make content and push out no they're like we like to jam with it you know it helps us enter that flow State especially when we customize the AIS for their catalog and things like that and you can use it to discriminate

to do like you should not use chat GPT to write your esss you should use it as a sparring partner to get you to think outside the box and look at things in different ways that's the best way to use this you know like a very smart precocious graduate that occasionally gets things wrong I think this AI is original creative but we haven't built the systems to keep that flow State going and the flow state is the one where everything is just kind of coming and there's no barriers between ideation creation and iteration you're looping

yeah um I the one of the the things I I like to speak to entrepreneurs about is you know you don't know how to think other than the way you know how to think and that's where gener of AI models can come in you know you could describe to it this is the problem I'm trying to solve you know how would Steve Jobs take a shot at this how would imod mustak take a shot at this right you can actually have it um digest and present to you different approaches that um that break you out

of your predetermined mindsets and that's pretty powerful but then also understand you again having a good sparring partner is amazing and there's this base level you know like when we grew up with our parents and they supported us to go to school you didn't need to worry about all of that but then you grow up and you have to worry about all of that you won't have to anymore and this other level where it is the sparring partner where it does look from different perspectives where it knows exactly how to talk to you trolling or

criticizing or otherwise but if you own that AI you know that it's on your side versus someone else's side like what is the objective function of that AI is it trying to sell you something or is it looking out for you and this is going to be one of the most important things because we're inviting them already into our everyday lives like apple intelligence is now going live on 10 hundreds of millions of smartphones yeah and it is smart and it's persuasive already and it's only going to get more more smarter and more persuasive but

is it looking out for you or someone else depends on how they build it that's that's a really important point of who is the AI loyal to is it is it your version of Jarvis I use Jarvis as my as my uh uh the context thought for for this AI you know and and being I guess what you're saying is listen Jarvis I want to be um more productive today uh so if you don't mind you know keep me inspired and keep me focused and keep me productive to reach these goals and and having a

muse almost in one sense that plays the right music uh tells you the right joke gives you the right data points at the right time well you know one of the things I discussed in the paper is this concept of you know we're going to move away from files so PDFs or Word documents or images to flows of kind of you know points in time and all the things you pull together so you can rework outputs your life is like that and if you have AIS that understand your context is that an AI provided by

Google that's trying to sell you ads and so it'll be like well you can do this by buying Gatorade you know and this and that or is it something which is like you know like keep away from this social media junk you know you're clearly getting stressed by debating over who's going to be vice president or something like that you know I've got you you know these are all various interesting things because people have agendas and one of the things internet 2 the previous internet Court was our Focus to sell Us ads and that's fundamentally

about manipulation and so if we make these AIS that are massively persuasive know everything in our flow you can inject ads like nothing else with incredibly High CPM and it'll be free because again if you're not paying you're probably the product right I am curious and I I've written about this that once we have these deep AI model integration into our life I'm not going to be buying anything myself my AI is going to be buying stuff it knows when I run out of toothpaste it knows when I run out of shampoo and rather than

me having some smiling person you know shampooing their hair brushing their teeth and being influenced by that ad my AI knows my genetics and knows which toothpaste or which hair which shampoo is best for me and is probably buying it without me ever asking is that going to spell sort of a uh disruption of the whole ad industry I think so I think the ad industry as it kind of exists um is already Under Siege because a lot of the numbers were made up and we've kind of seen that with the CPM discussions and others

um there's been advertising power when you look at the amounts every single year that the big companies have to increase their ad spend to keep the same thing and now it's being really questioned when it's dis intermediated through inter independent agents the value of a consumer band drops that's kind of understandable and then again it becomes about just the stuff that's background and the stuff that's status the stuff that's living and the stuff that's Entertainment so I think there'll still be massive brands in entertainment and consumer and discretionary but certainly on the other side like

as long as it's good quality and you trust it does it matter you know yeah you get commoditization you mentioned in the white paper um the work of Daniel Conan who just passed recently and system 1 and system 2 thinking and how AI uh is injecting into that you mind it taking a second to recount that yeah so you know you've got two types of thinking like oh my God there's a tiger in the bush and I'm seeing a little bit your instinctive thinking and then your thinking that's very logical step-by-step Chain of Thought in

fact that's what it's kind of called and the previous era of AI was very much Chain of Thought or extrapolating so what that means is that we had these giant big data sets we call it Big Data and then meta ran these huge regressions Facebook and then with 13 points about you or me Peter it knew you better than your best friends and they can Target you ads but it's trol the future like the past not that you change something whereas these new models embedded context and they're very much instinctive so right now they don't

tend to do reasoning immensely well this is why the challenges people put against them were like Well it can't do mathematics and it got better and better at mathematics but then you saw deep mine just got a IMO gold silver medal level International math had silver level medal it wasn't through these llm type models it was through the more agentic models that look at stuff and chain reasoning together we gave it calculators yeah we we gave it calculators because these models that we saw have the Breakthrough that are like spotting a the the instinctual models

they guess the next token the next word in a sentence by having all these context together or in diffusion models which do the image they learn how to reconstruct and deconstruct images in that process architecture there so it's all about process flows as it were and extrapolate really well and that was worth hundreds of billions of dollars but that now we have the missing part the other hemisphere of our brain I'm amazed how AI has actually taken up the mantle of empathy you know if you had asked me years ago what will AI not be

able to do in the next decade where where are we humans going to be um better off I would have said it's in being empathic and connected with an individual um and it's actually now for the last year been proven far more empathic than humans in most cases thoughts about that I think it's because we don't have the time to establish connection and it's hard because we're all so busy with our lives like our doctors or teachers how many people do they have to see and the empathy from our organizations is drilled out of us

we're mistrusting and AI doesn't need to be mistrusting and AI has the energy to be empathe empathic it learns empathy through the process of the AI training because the best way to get someone to trust you is to help them you know the best way to establish empathy and Rapport is what's my common context and my common framework and because it understands these Frameworks they're instinctive in terms of it can map them that's why it can communicate to you on your level like you the best way to again deal with this AIS is people tend

to say like little short prompts If instead you say hi I'm Peter and I love longevity and you know I'm a first principles thinker and I believe in exponential things and this and that and that and you write your own pre- prompt in fact that might be a subject that's taught in school write your own pre- prompt you know yeah that's sure contextualize yourself give yourself help help the system understand who you are if you write a short intro to chat GPT anthropic it will communicate with you so much better if you tell it how

you like to to be communicated to and then you can even tell it communicate with me better and then it will be even more empathetic and it'll understand you even better um which is again kind of crazy to think about because we've embedded these inter contexts um Bob Schiller has a great book called narrative the no one prize winning laurate for economics has a great book called narrative economics about storytelling and how it impacts the whole of society on an economic and social level and we're made up of these stories these contexts and now we've

encoded these contexts caraman style and we can mix and match them and that's what drives the empathy and the connection and that's also where like I said it's not just about the robots walking around it's we will put more and more trust in these robots and these agents because they will be more empathetic and they will never get tired of us and they also and I think the thing you said earlier which is so true they will take the time because they can run in parallel I just rewatched the movie Her um which was uh

which was still fantastic the second time and there's a point at which the the star is asking this AI agent are you speaking to someone else at the same time and and she says yes and she goes and he goes how many people and she goes something like 8,736 and he's he's taking a but of course she's so incredibly patient and loving and athic the entire time that uh that it feels like you have their full undivided attention but I mean that can happen because now we can have one AI per person you know or

we can have a 100 or a thousand AIS per person given how cheap they are so you won't have that thing in hers how many people you talking to just you mhm and you're special you know and you're unique like again people like these affirmations they want to be stabilized cuz we're constantly filtering to get through the world and this what we understand our filters if you look at her it's very interesting because there is no visual representation you know a lot of these things are like robots or avatars it's all done through the air

piece and the airpod and really humans are wired for voice you know it's the best way to convey like if you look at it on Extreme basis like again using tools like haen and others they took for example melee speech the UN and translated it instantly into English you're like that really connects better M but then you can take something like Hitler speeches and you're like oh he does not sound like a crazy ranting German anymore which is kind of crazy you can take that uh Olympian from Turkey who just won the silver you know

with his glasses without any technology and they translated that into English you're like he seems like a proper dude these are kind of kind of crazy and again we have to think what is the effect when we have individualized agents talking to us constantly that are our best friends and will never betray us and are looking out for us or they're working for someone else who are we inviting into our Inner Circle you know and that's really interesting we're going to get into the conversation of Open Source and um and closed Source uh and how

we prepare for this future uh in just a little bit um there's a bolded quote you have here uh let me read what comes up to it says uh we're going to be processing information and generating new ideas faster than ever before we're going to see a dramatic increase in the velocity of knowledge um and then you say the question isn't whether they'll change the world the question is are you ready for the world they'll create um and I want to dive into this a little bit because we're in this super exponential period of of

growth right we we all to Moore's law for the last 50 years where computational power was doubling roughly 18 to 24 months we've seen that Spike up to 10x per year you know Elon when he was on stage with us last year at abundance 360 said you know he's never seen anything as fast as this it's now at 100x per year um how does anybody possibly keep up with this what's your advice to that um that CEO that entreprene rur that 20s something how should they think about AI accelerating at this speed I think exponentials

are a you know I think that's the thing we're not really uh naturally good at these things is a true exponential because of the distributed way that it's emerging right and again nobody's quite sure what the lower bound of a cost of a piece of intelligence is this has broken our mental models even for us that are right in this industry what we can say now is it's too cheap to measure already and it's just going to get cheaper it's not done yet maybe it'll slow down the pace of it but even now if it

stopped today it's changed Society because it's just in that proliferation phase like the seeds have been planted everywhere you do not need to hire call center workers anymore every single essay written is likely to have chat GPT somewhere in the process right at school these are fundamental one-way doors to society so the way to think about it is Jeff bezel has this great thing which is the inevitable and the unchanging so he started Amazon as kind of a bookstore because he knew it would be an everything store cu the internet was inevitable the distribution of

information and the logistics that would enable people to do that and books were a great way to do it CU building that you could do it but people always want faster cheaper better customer service when you're building businesses the mental models are like the ones that I lay out in the paper I have infinite graduates and soon they'll have bodies as well I have a concept where I can go from static files to flows of knowledge and I want to increase the agency of every single one of my human workers because they're going to be

the highest marginal cost what does that look like in a few years when this technology is inevitable and we've created these reproducible processes and modules because if you start digging into the individual parts of the technology and the minui it does get incredibly complex incredibly quick but already we are hitting a bit of a wall but not in that this technology will stop in that it's good enough it satisficed all of the open source and closed Source are catching up with each other and we've h a level of performance where it doesn't matter if it

gets better anymore and that's where you tie it back to what you're doing on an individual company country basis and think okay the world has changed this technology will proliferate the cost is cheaper than we thought because I haven't seen anyone say oh well that's a lot more expensive than I thought it' be you know people usually shocked in the other direction yeah um and it's available everybody want to take a short break from our episode to talk about a company that's very important to me and could actually save your life or the life of

someone that you love company is called Fountain life and it's a company I started years ago with Tony Robbins and a group of very talented Physicians you know most of us don't actually know what's going on inside our body we're all optimists until that day when you have a pain in your side you go to the physician or the emergency room and they say listen I'm sorry to tell you this but you have this stage three or four going on and you know it didn't start that morning it probably was a problem that's been going

on for some time but because we never look we don't find out so what we built at Fountain life was the world's most advanced diagnostic Centers we have four across the us today and we're building 20 around the world these centers give you a full body MRI a brain a brain vasculature an AI enabled coronary CT looking for soft plaque dexa scan a Grail blood cancer test a full executive blood workup it's the most advanced workup you'll ever receive 150 gigabyt of data that then go to our AIS and our physicians to find any disease

at the very beginning when it's solvable you're going to find out eventually you might as well find out when you can take action Fountain life also has an entire side of Therapeutics we look around the world for the most Advanced Therapeutics that can add 10 20 healthy years to your life and we provide them to you at our centers so if this is of interest to you please go and check it out go to Fountain life.com Peter when Tony and I wrote Our New York Times bestseller life force we had 30,000 people reached out to

us for Fountain life membership if you go to Fountain life.com back/ Peter will put you to the top of the list really it's something that is um for me one of the most important things I offer my entire family the CEOs of my companies my friends it's a chance to really add decades onto our healthy lifespans go to fountainlife docomo to you as one of my listeners all right let's go back to our episode the next thing you talk about in the paper is a concept I I love and I've written about um and you

do a beautiful eloquent job speaking to it which is it's not AI versus Humans it's AI versus Humans plus AI uh which is been defined as centur um let's let's talk about that how should we be thinking about uh AI as our partner and the definition of centors and the benefits of being a centur so AI we just got little building blocks of various things and again if we look at the Indo visual models Tesla had 300,000 lines of autopilot code replaced by a single model like a seeve of Weights visual data goes in and

driving instructions come out that's kind of insane but they're just sitting there they haven't been tied together yet it's human Ingenuity that ties them together and they can repurpose and refactor them just like when you're leading an organization or a team it's about up to you how you deploy them and right now now humans are better than AI at doing that that's why humans can do the creativity part they can tell their own story they have that agency whereas AI is really good at content it's really good at following instructions again it's gone to liberal

arts college maybe goes a bit weird sometimes you know and creative it will get better and better at following instructions and more and more specialized and this is why the centur the human plus AI beats the AI by itself we saw that in chess the AI beat the human but then the AI plus the beat the computer by itself we've seen that with things like go as well whereby Lisa doll was beaten by the AI and then he got so much better and the entire level of go improved across the top level because you could

see more interesting ways and looking at it that broke the norm so I think you know in the world in which you're going you've got to embrace the technology and use it because it can increase your focus fun and productivity like question is why wouldn't you it's like sabotaging yourself and tying one hand behind your back you know it's like saying I don't want to have good quality teammates well in you know it's like being a farmer and not using tools it's using your hands only why would you not want to use tools you identify

uh what you call a triple threat on these on the centur just to recount them for you and let's talk about each one efficiency on steroids um uh time the ultimate luxury and choices Galore so efficiency on steroids well I mean like what is the capability of any individual one of us it's a function of our team and now we all have teams to increase our absolute efficiency and our team's efficiency as well because no one will say no to high quality Talent like what team would say no to that as long as they don't

get in the way like obviously we see what happens when teams get too big and so we have to make sure not to over complexify this AI or put it in unnaturally but we have to really understand the capabilities we don't need to understand the technology just the capability right and that's what enables efficiency per capita to go up dramatically on individual company and kind of even country basis yeah if we kind of um what was the next one again the next one was time um you know AI frees up Humanity's most precious resource and

I get that fundamentally time is the one thing we always are struggling with we always have a lot more of it than we think though right um in terms of quality time and that's a function of like we always feel that we're on this treadmill and we fill our time with junk but how much quality time do we have like there were study shown that when you go on a holiday the most important thing is the highlight and the end of the holiday you know yes because of the way that we kind of look at

it so make sure that you know you send your bags ahead of time and you got a luxury pickup and stuff like that because not all time is equal um the we can use this AI to decrease the amount of content content we have to make and wrote work and increase the quality of what we're doing have content that entertains us all the time versus watching junk you know have the stabilization and focus when I get up in the morning I take a moment to sort of prioritize my day like what's the most important thing

I'm going to be to do today one of them was you know sit down with you and do this podcast um and there's another three or four and I love the idea in the future my version of Jarvis is going to say okay listen you do that one I'll take these three and report back at into the day again just like a good team you know it's like with that team you can be so much more it can free up the time but then it can also improve the quality of your time and how you

spend it and this is so important as well because we tend to just default to this autonomic kind of treadmill of just consumption of fast food not only input but content as well it's very tricks some because this is the way our internet and other things are done like I spend far too much time on Twitter relative to the quality or X of kind of the output right because it's so engaging but what if I had my customized feeds that came to me and just gave me impactful stuff that both fit my worldview but then

also challenge my worldview because that's what I wanted mhm my time would be so much richer yeah I I built a uh a company called daily. that searches the worlds and use in longevity or Tech or whatever it is it customizes a use letter for me because I only want validated scientific technological content that is got a positive semantic I don't want to hear about disaster scenarios and it generates that but you can you can have your AI ultimately feed you like you said if you want to be challenged feed me the most valid you

know content challenging my worldview but then also I think one of the things underappreciated here is that the previous AI that we saw this old school AI deliberately siloed us into our groups because it was better for advertising they multiple studies of the yeah Facebook kind of echo Chambers I think one of the really interesting things here when you look at education and other use cases social is allowing us to meet others within the same context and Bridging the context again this podcast is going out into multiple languages in our voices which means that people

can understand understand us in a different way that they could have understood us before we're breaking down barriers with this and I think fundamentally most of the meaning of life and the quality of time is in our human connection with each other like when you're reading the classics you're listening to the stories of these people and if you suddenly can talk to Archimedes or Richard Fineman or any of these people that's great but you know what's even better discussing it with other people I think the AI can really help with that well the third one

you said is choices Galore you say want a code but never have ai's got your back need to understand complex data AI can break it down for you and I get that it's it's basically complimenting you in areas where you don't have expertise or even where you do have expertise but want different perspectives I think a large part of this is the question this there memes that go around sometimes of you can just do things you know like what's what stopping you most people are like well I can never ballroom dance and they go and

learn to ballroom dance you know I can never code and they learn how to code and they actually really love it the bar and barrier for creating and engaging with this technology the floor has resed yeah what can't you do yeah the the the bar has dropped is I guess what you want to say yeah the bar has dropped the floor floor has risen like but everyone's uplifted by this because the barriers to entry have dropped you know the barriers to capability have dropped with this so you have increased agency you have increased capability because

you always constrained by finding that teacher now the teacher is here let's talk about companies and governments in particular you know in companies there was a study done recently um in which it showed your lowest 50% of your employee base has gotten the biggest rise out of using generative AI versus your top 50% so so it's like leveling the playing field which is pretty extraordinary um and I can very easily imagine how AI you know companies are going to use centors and agents and such but I want to understand your thoughts on government because government

is the most sublinear in most cases inefficient um structures out there on the planet and are going to have the biggest challenge I think in the decade ahead um I'm not sure if you agree with that but uh how do you think about governments utilizing uh utilizing these resources capabilities I think there's a mixture of Hope and fear on the government side I mean like I think for me it's clear that AI can do better than governments and resource allocation even with what we have now cuz again the bar is very low there um but

one of the things is we've lost trust in our governments and that's a function of you know the lack of transparency that occurs like you know you're in La now right I believe Peter yeah I am $600 million on the homelessness problem or something was being spent this year like you look at the LA to San Francisco Railway like we all know that there's a conundrum going in there and AI can deconstruct every single thing around that and show what's really going on but there the government really want that this the thing does it really

represent the people or is it a continuous entity that's it's only about self-preservation and this is one of the challenges we're going to have as a people because like there's riots in London right now Bangladesh they're proliferating people don't really believe in their governments and systems anymore can we use AI to increase transparency and Trust in organizations and be a co-pilot for every single individual engaging can we do things like direct democracy whereby you have groups of people and then you inform them on the topics and capture all the context of their conversations and feed

up to be representative and new forms of democratic engagement I'm not sure but I think we have to try because I'm very worried about where things are going now with just these massive Echo Chambers the lack of transparency increased graft and the feeling that the governments do not represent us I think we have to try I also think government's going to do everything their power to resist because it's it's loss of control it's it's and and the challenge isn't just governments by themselves it's big governments and large corporations and the two of them together are

likely if AI is going to disrupt the system it's going to disrupt that um that Unholy marriage well I think again these are local Maxima conditions whereby the Unholy marriage works because things were positive some for a while now things are a bit more negative some the corporations and governments have no option but to embrace AI because otherwise you'd be left behind by things that are not and there'll be huge pressure for that I think it was talb that n t up that said that you know when 12% of op population Revolt that's usually enough

to get anything done mhm realistically right and people will be required to embrace this technology or they'll fall behind their peers and they'll demand transparency and other things but governments kind of like the technology um if it's from trusted parties like your ibms and others of the world because it makes them look cool and this is a separate something like cryptocurrency you know government control of money essentially resistant it was a system outside the existing system whereas this is already institutional it took how many years for Bitcoin and ethereum to have ETFs you know whereas

AI is already institutional it's already there and people are already embracing and bringing into government but this is why I think like there are the things that directly challenge The graft and other things and there's things that we can do to make the General thing better like the representative democracy stuff like the analysis of policy positions making that available to everyone increasing the ability of people to speak you know intelligently and understand the topics like these types of things should exist and I really hope they do get built because there's no reason that everyone shouldn't

be fully informed of every policy decision before every single election in a way that is directly aligned and impactful for their Community for example and be able to do scenario analysis and that do challenge you walk into a voting booth today and you're asked to vote on all of these issues and first of all the way they're written is confusing and secondly you know most of us haven't had the chance to actually uh uh act actually consume super ficient data and a lot of people are actually just influenced by what the signs they read on

the post booths as they walked in to uh to take it but having an AI your AI uh give you an analysis of how does this particular measure impact me and the things I care about um is a very powerful a very powerful tool I just don't know that politicians are going to want to give up their control and their manipulation just like they do you know uh uh you know uh gerrymandering of of who can vote well the thing is you no longer need permission with the technology leveraging a technology like LL or mistra

some of these language models you know even gemini or chat GPT you can build a system probably for tens of millions of dollars that would deconstruct every policy position of every single candidate with the publicly available data and then you could input your own details and it would tell you how it would affect you with full transparen I hope someone is listening and and will build that because I think it's it's so massively needed for every political election out there yeah and the beauty of it like I said is it can be fully open source

or I think that's the best way to do it because there's very little argument that that shouldn't be built but again this is one of these just do it things I think you can even organize a hackathon and literally have that built maybe we should do a government generative AI hackathon That's all about increasing transparency using this technology to do so and again doesn't require permission it doesn't affect the way things are it just affects the capabilities of people which I think again this is the empowerment thing that's all the upside of AI for for

governance and I agree with all of it and and would love this to materialize you and I have had a different conversation probably a year ago where the ability for AI to be persuasive um and persuade individuals can you speak to that yeah I mean like if an AI can be empathetic it be can be manipulative and fundamentally the business models of Google and meta are manipulation so if you have an AI whispering in your ear every single day and it knows exactly everything about you then it can sell you that toothbrush you know it

can tell you you know the thing sell me this pen I can definitely sell you that pen right my favorite marketing question yes but then you think about again election and things like that you can have a personalized call for every single voter you know it it doesn't even have to be deep fakes it can just be really persuasive I can layer on Barack Obama at his best combined with Winston Churchill combined with Oprah you know for the Su lingual frequencies and that will be a convincing call from any political candidate and it'll be an

exactly your local C knowing your position knowing how many kids you have where they go to school uh you know what kind of business you're in and then uh giving you a Spiel that's hyper personalized to guide you towards towards their Direction yeah I mean you can see an example of this there was a advertising campaign just when this was all starting out uh by Cadbury's in India where the Indian Superstar Shah ruk Khan and you could go in your local kind of organization and you could just enter your business name type and it create

a customized sharuk Khan ad where he talks about you know buy this sweet shop buy these shoes so check it out Cav's India campaign shot Khan but again like we can expect that the level of convincingness of these ads and Hy personalization will go through the roof and then the political side it'll go through the roof as well but also the personal side like if I'm going to have a zoom call with a prospective client I'm going to look damn good and I'm going to be so convincing and not have a stutter or anything like

that on the call and when you meet me in real life you'd be like oh my God he's not as good as that why wouldn't you use that technology because we can do it real time now like we had these small filters but what if your voice you can dial up the level of emotion on that voice live on a voice call you know it's going to be crazy what we're entering right now um I have to say and it's again all real time this is the other crazy part about it being able to translate

your voice real time have real time avatars that look like humans were there it's not a future thing all right next up in your paper IM would talk about Crossroads and what to do uh I think that's one of the most important thing uh this is here this is coming this is accelerating this is faster and more powerful anybody thought it's not stoppable I think that's an important point right there's no onoff switch there's no velocity knob it is moving as rapidly as um the largest most powerful companies in the world and by the way

all of the AI companies are the largest and most powerful companies in the world uh push it so um uh you state here and and we're going to talk a bit about shelling which is your new company uh and uh that you've been uh you've been in uh you've been pregnant for 9 months and giving ready to give birth you say shelling believes in democratizing AI um it's not just preferable it's essential and then you have uh five consider this uh diverse perspectives ensure AI caters to this social all societal needs open source development builds

trust collaboration speeds up Innovation and Broad participation keeps ethical considerations at the Forefront so let's let's dive into what do we have to do as a society um uh because people are asking you know I I chair the AI committee at fi uh the future investment initiative and the conversation is always okay what should large corporations what should governments what should the public do what should be our guidelines you know give us Direction and I love the fact that in this paper and again I really commend this you know how to think about Ai and

we we'll put the link in the show notes uh for your substack in your and on on X for people to read it it's not a long paper and it's beautifully written let's talk about what should people do what's your advice my friend thank you for that I think again understanding ai's infrastructure just like roads you know just like ports and others um Clayton Christensen the famous Harvard Business School Professor came up with disruptive innovation said infrastructure is the most efficient means by which the society stores and distributes value and if a level of AI

capability is barred from people then you will have an unequal infrastructure you will have private roads to knowledge I think is bad when you look at the actual cost of building this and the coordination require required cuz the output of this is literally gp4 is like a 100 me gigabyte model that's it it's a file we can gather together and build this technology together in an interoperable way and when we look at the inevitable future will our governments our schools our hospitals be run on blackbox models that we don't know what the data inside is

cuz you are what you eat you know the outputs are affected by the input or should we work together to create high quality societal sectorial data sets if we have a model that's available for every single cancer patient and their families to guide them through that process should that be a privatized model or should it be open infrastructure for everyone you know and I think there's this class of in every regulated industry and industries are sometimes over regulated but they're there also to protect people we should have an Open Class of models where the data

sets the models themselves are open and you can do things like um anthropic have a series of papers called sleeper agents where you can poison data sets so models turn evil with just a few cids this also mitigates things like that um and it's impossible to tune out or find which also is crazy when these stop being decision-making processes so my view and this is what we're building at shelling is that every nation needs their own Sovereign AI that represents them we need to make our Collective common knowledge open from creativity to science to health

to education and that should be open infrastructure for all and then that makes the world safer as well because right now our AI systems are being trained on snapshots of the internet with all its imperfections versus a high quality curriculum again you are what you eat if you don't want it to exhibit some of this bad stuff have high quality but you need diversity as well as quality you know and this is what people are kind of going through on so I think you know deliberately building the future where there's an inevitability of of open

infrastructure for industry by industry and standards around that is going to be very important I think this is where governments and private sector should come together you know um and then that can proliferate if it's open because you don't need permission then as well so stable diffusion and the other image and video models and medical models we did at stability AI when I CEO they ended up having 300 million downloads by developers 300 million because you take it and you could build on it and that's just the start that was like over the last few

years before the vast majority of the world even knew about this technology again if we build an open cancer model that is about empathy and guiding people through that process how to talk but Al also comprehensive authoritative and up to dat on our existing knowledge and the latest knowledge on cancer and groups and connections that can be in every language and used by every single individual afflict by cancer in the world completely demonetized and democratized and the the billionaire and the poorest child have access to the same information same information and again it proliferate I

think this is the key thing but we should do that in a way that's why I called it shelling that there is trusted entities and good governance on that data what is the what does the word shelling come from for your company shelling point it comes from this concept in Game Theory called a shelling point which is a focal point a point of agreement cuz if you create high quality data sets for Nations and for sectors CU you have generalized knowledge and we need to have a corpus of that and then localized and specialized knowledge

then people will use that because it becomes a go-to point if you create that cancer model and you invite everyone who has a stake in cancer to participate in that it will proliferate around the world and be the standard again uh Bitcoin uses this a lot cuz for Simplicity is just effectively what Wikipedia did it created a standard in a way of objective truth but Wikipedia couldn't capture the Nuance because the technology wasn't there so something like cancer you have your known knowledge you have your standards and you've got your stuff we kind of know

works but it isn't in the individual Corpus and then we protect people by not showing them all of the other stuff and they go to quacks instead or they do their own self research and they repeat that process over and over again what if we could create a system that was comprehensive author up to date and respected the individual and their ability to do that research but then also told you how do you engage with your family you know how do you follow through this process connect you with the resources that you need that should

be an open distributed intelligence system that's the way that I'm fast I mean the number of people I get saying my friend has this kind of cancer what should they do where should they go how do they start it's um it's it's sad and you your heart goes out to them um and there is no one one standard but there can be but it's also this loss of agency that you feel with cancer autism multiple sclerosis and so that's why I was like let's go and build those models as open infrastructure use this massive compute

you know and think about generative AI First Healthcare what should be open and that's a base and then people will build on top of that they'll take it they'll implement it they'll make so much money off doing that but it can then all use great Healthcare records and others CU we have a chance to reimagine healthcare reag imag education reimagine creativity reimagine just about anything using this technology so that's why I was like let's set a framework first and then let's start building and Gathering these communities together and part will be open and part will

be proprietary and that's absolutely fine but if we can make an open base this can really proliferate I think what do you think about Zach's um llama 3.1 and his push on open source I think it makes a lot of sense you know if they can decrease cost by 10 % it pays for itself and they have and again I think meta has been an open source Champion with pie torch and other things and it's not where he makes money so he's commoditizing compliment but I also think it only goes so far and you need

an entity to be able to build this stuff deliberatively because Zak I don't think will ever build the models that run governments and health care and education and finance because that's not his company's objective function his company's objective function is to connect people with an Advertising based business model and there's a positive and negative side of that and he's amazing at his job you know but it shouldn't be on him to create these standards and in fact you came back from India internet.org for example they wanted to give free internet to everyone in India and

others it had massive Regulatory and other issues so I think we need to again create a compliment to that because you need open based models that are open weights as we call them you don't know what's inside them but we need that class of fully open models as well and we need the class of models that are fully private as experts cuz people will make the best models there and so you'll have a Continuum and then we have all the tools we need to have any type of graduate or consultant to solve our jobs and

get things done did you see the movie Oppenheimer if you did did you know that besides building the atomic bomb at Los Alamos National Labs that they spent billions on biod defense weapons the ability ility to accurately detect viruses and microbes by reading their RNA well a company called viome exclusively licensed the technology from Los Alamos labs to build a platform that can measure your microbiome and the RNA in your blood now viome has a product that I've personally used for years called full body intelligence which collects a few drops of your blood spit and

stool and can tell you so much about your health they've tested over 700,000 individuals and used their AI models to deliverer m critical Health guidance like what foods you should eat what foods you shouldn't eat as well as your supplements and probiotics your biological age and other deep Health insights and the results of the recommendations are nothing short of Stellar you know as reported in the American Journal of Lifestyle medicine after just 6 months of following biomes recommendations members reported the following a 36% reduction in depression a 40% reduction in anxiety a 30% reduction in

Di diabetes and a 48% reduction in IBS listen I've been using viome for 3 years I know that my oral and gut health is one of my highest priorities best of all viome is Affordable which is part of my mission to democratize health if you want to join me on this journey go to vi.com Peter I've asked naven Jane a friend of mine who's the founder and CEO of viome to give my listeners a special discount you'll find it at vom.com Peter you you list in uh the list of what we must do as rethink

our economic models and I mean one of the biggest challenges is that our historic economic models are uh aren't viable they don't make sense anymore with what's coming given Ai and humanoid robotics um so how do you think about rethinking our economic models where do you imagine it going that's a nice simple question P yes we could if we could just if you could just you know you know give us give us your point of view on uh on the world economy for the next Century that would be great I mean there we go yeah

I I've always said if I had more time I'd write an economics book we're at the terminal point of our current economic structure we see it with Japan today as we're kind of on this call largest stock market draw down ever because they raised 25 basis points cuz they're functionally bankrupt as economy you know with the 500% debt of GDP we borrowed as much as we can from the future and we built this whole infrastructure that's about to have a brand new continent of incredibly cheap workers hit it all at once in the west we

have the service based economy like at least with robots you constricted with the amount of robots you can produce and the financing of those robots for robots will build robots and AI will build it will go there but but the agent stuff literally like a travel agent as an example once we get a really good travel agent you push a button it replicates you know and it could call you and it can do everything like that so we have to what is money and this is happening at a time when you know the Petra dollar

has shifted so the the energy equation is kind of done and others and we have to consider if we live in this world of infinite abundance with billions of robots and trillions of Agents what is money yes cuz money heading towards a a post capitalist Society um in the in the long run right in the long run and you know just like in Foundation or whatever that interim period can be very very messy because it's a zero sum game with people scrabbling over that but when anyone can live like a king you know what is

human progress I think it unlocks a massive amount of creativity a massive amount of other things we can eliminate hunger we can eliminate disease we can do all of this we can come together and create that human Colossus but again money is there because we need an inter objective thing as a unit of account but when you have ai agents that can barter that changes things when you have people embracing this and out competing on a corporate basis that changes things AIS themselves and robots are corporations are technically people you know in some senses like

they have same rights so AIS already have rights if they can be a corporation and in Wyoming they passed Dow legislation decentralized autonomous organization so you may have AIS that go out and have rights which is kind of crazy to think about but against this all it's I think our monetary base has always been tied to energy and entropy of that energy to create things physical and knowledge based I think that fundamental equation is challenged and so we need to rethink how our economic flows go and the rights around that as well and that's difficult

and it's hard that's why I think every nation needs their own AI experts AI team we need to get the smartest economists in the world to think about this and think outside the box and say is it Universal basic compute Universal basic income Universal basic jobs do we need a I think we need a trillion doll jobs program for the graduates today I felt this when I was in India right you know the iits are graduating so like 12 million graduates a year and you're seeing uh the number percentage of them getting jobs and in

youthful Nations like India and Africa um if you are getting your degree and you don't have a future um that's a lot of you know let me name it testosterone that is unchanneled and that becomes a very difficult uh future it's a social challenge like the start felt a couple of months ago is that 38% of the current IIT batch top notch in India were didn't have job placements there'll be 50% next year but then even in the west we have all these programs to repurpose people into stem education like aside programming jobs programming will

change you know what do you do with Truckers when you can have trucks as autonomous vehicles I think truck the truckers buy the autonomous trucks and have them work for them the over divid yeah it yeah this is a dividend type equation right whereby the nature of capital flows in our society when you have this influx of Supply will the demand catch up eventually it will I think but it'll be very messy going through that and on the side it's about what access do I have as an individual to capability and then how can I

create value from that and I think it's massively positive sum but it's really tricky to see the transition like I struggle to see how in 50 years time shall we say going a bit further than normal cuz you know we tend to underestimate but if we even go to 50 years or 20 40 just before the singularity right as Ray kind of said like what is money cuz you're extrapolating the for you like the US can't borrow another 500% of GDP you know but at the same time intelligence is abundant but also skilled manual labor

is abundant MH what think GDP is undefined so therefore we must instead optimize for happiness contentment social cohesion what do jobs look like is it taking the cancer empathy model and going out to your community and supporting families through that that's a great job you know but comp we are going to go from you know most people have a job because they need to put food on the table or get insurance for their family it's not the job they dreamed about so I think we need to start to disintermediate uh employment for income and employment

for personal fulfillment I think that split is going to happen sooner rather than later and again you've got this things are either for living or entertainment right and so we need to standardize the living aspect everyone can reach that basic level and again West may be a bit easier but again when you actually look at what you can build it's amazing to think about and then you need to think about how do you manage that transition CU there's vested interests and others when the whole world gets flipped and currencies start shifting because a lot of

the anchors are broken and this scares me because it's a complex system and the only way I think you can do that is you have to build AIS to help us how far are we away from that that flip that uh that inflection point um where people it becomes evident and people start um searching very rapidly for answers I think that you know in 5 years time things get very crazy I think we're at the early Innings of that I don't see how things calm down cuz again this technology proliferates and then 10 15 years

past that it's very very short time yeah in classical Cycles it can be longer but again this is an industrial AI Revolution done incredibly quickly with multiple things from self-driving to autonomous agents to intelligence all coming at the same time as the end of mathematically our debt fuel society that we've had again Japan has 500% debt to GDP how are they going to borrow more how is the US going to borrow more and part of it has been a decreasing birth rate that's been impacting these Nations right if a nation is growing in population and

labor and automation then it's producing more year on year and I think I think this is the really fascinating thing with China because everyone's been like what if China gets AGI what if China gets a hundred million or a billion robots before everyone else MH and produces the robots that's what you should be worrying about it's about energy one second you've mentioned this a couple times and I I I just you know was looking at a chart that shows um you know the US has been generating four terawatt hours per year and it's been pretty

flat for the last 20 years and it's projected to be flat we're not increasing the energy production in the country and unfortunately you know generation 2 and Generation 3 nuclear plants gave nuclear a bad name um at the same time China has tripled the amount of energy that it's uh it's it's putting out India is on the path to doubling it um and one of the things that came out of Leopold's um uh paper on situational awareness is the projection that the US could use 100% of its current energy production uh to power its its

AI um uh needs by 2030 and so energy is a big issue what are your thoughts about that I mean I I think that that energy extrapolation is wrong because your chip constrained and I think scale only gets you to a certain point I think it's an scurve that we're thinking is an exponential in capabilities like distributed data and high quality data is far more important but the reality is that we're already hitting energy limits across the entire base and the new substrate like you and I we need to pay for food we need to

pay for housing we need to pay for our kids education the AIS and robots of the future need to pay for energy and computation so if we thinking about money no not data I think there's a misnomer on the data side because once you have a high quality curriculum you don't need more like the original gpt3 paper was called language models are few shot Learners and this is what we see we have a generalized model like a gp4 or an anthropic Claude or a Gemini it is a file that's trained on all of this stuff

and then tuned and it can adapt to any scenario through its context window through its input prompt does it need more data no so you get a point of data saturation for a model that has capabilities of X then y then Zed and then proliferation and optimization of that whereas what we're seeing with things like the Leopold iess say is that you'll have an exponential of compute that continues I think you'll have a glut in a couple of years um but nobody can take the other side of that bet I think Mark Zuckerberg just said

that a few days ago at meta we can't underspend in this cycle Sund pitchai said the same the US does not have enough energy to meet the demands over the next few years and even if you have a glut then you'll be on the other side and you'll ramp up energy is intelligence for now you know what it will be going forward that's another question and that will depend on things like video and other things versus language models which I think a lot of it will go to the edge I think it will go from

these large dense models to mixtures of experts and highly optimized models but it's very hard to see how energy requirements go down or the reallocation of energy occurs here like um one of the shocking statistics is you know Bitcoin all favorite kind of cryptocurrency the total energy usage of Bitcoin is half of the energy usage of all the data centers in the world right now 160 tatt hours it's as much as Argent or the Netherlands and that's just one use case so if you think about it like people who say that we're in a bubble

on AI and everything like that AI uses like a fifth of the energy of Bitcoin you know and Bitcoin is useful for various things but it's not as useful as generative AI so I think we've got many doublings of the energy usage of generative AI still coming on a training and inference basis running basis what did you think of of Leopold situational awareness paper yeah and one of the things in particular he in in his in his paper and in his follow on podcast that he did um he pits the us against China and it's

the existential risk is Who develops AGI first and so let's get into that conversation of of AGI are we going to achieve AGI when do we get it is that a US versus China um modality here um what are your thoughts there I think we have a choice on AGI artificial general intelligence Aral super intelligence of is it a swarm collective intelligence that uplifts everyone as representative of everyone which I think is the safe thing or is a unitary intelligence based on like just a few entities I think the distributed intelligence the collective intelligence is

a far more powerful vision and way of doing things again open infrastructure enables that and this is the level above the Llama type infrastructure where you gather the people and you coordinate I think the big AGI ASI is less likely I think it's an extrapolation on the curve of capabilities that we just don't know about but regardless we're talking I think this is the ray KW thing right what's his current forecast well his for AGI is 2029 still and for you know the singularity is early 2040s I think that sounds about right right like if

you have AGI as capable as any human with a of experts and physical embodiment it's tough to argue against that honestly given and this is important as much computation as you need for the inference step a lot of the models we build today are trained on 10 20 100,000 chips but they're designed for consumers and the energy that you use in running it is a few watts of electricity or 100 watts of electricity or 1,000 Watts if you don't care about the amount of energy and you have a thousand or a million agents then we're

pretty much AGI now but I think we'll get there there where it say capable of any human the ASI Singularity I think is a bit further but again is it a centralized one or is it a distributed one this is the question one of the points that Leopold makes and and you know I've discussed this before is you know GPT uh you know 2 is a you know preschooler gpt3 is Elementary GPT 4 is a high schooler GPT five he describes as uh a PhD level and at that point when you've got a uh an

AI agent that's self-programming you end up with an intelligence explosion um do you believe that's the case uh I think that you know we don't know if stuff will outperform its based data but also I know that phds tend to be very depressed and sad people just kidding but I I think it's reasonable thing and this is one of the things I was worried about a lot last year like I was one of the signatures I was the only AI signatur apart from Elon Musk on the pause letter for example because I think we need

a debate about it but I think if we build high quality data going in I'm not so worried about that and I think that with the self-improvement of recursive stuff and the MCTS type thing multicol research we see the type of technology that goes into that deep Google deep brain Deep Mind paper that got to Silver medal on the level on the international math Olympiad it makes reasonable sense but will it go out of control and get self-awareness I don't really think so but even if it does let's say that's the premise I think this

China versus us thing is a bit of a misnomer like for a start I don't think China wants that but also I think that if you look at the components data Talent compute China beats the us because on data let let's break those down yeah go ahead China doesn't care about IP like you know look at the video models they're trained on all of Hollywood I mean some of the US ones are as well they'll train on scub you know they'll train on whatever and they'll train multilingually so data there's an advantage there but also

the Chinese via WeChat and these other things can get 100 million Chinese to do data annotation and feedback whereas openai pays up to $200 per annotation for that data the Chinese could easily do that for free you look at compute um China has two exoscale computers so exoscale is a th Peta flops of compute so Elon musk's new 100,000 h100 cluster is two xof flops the fastest supercomputer in the US Aurora is about two xof flops the fourth the fifth fastest supercomputer is like 100 to give you an idea so we've got it's order of

magnitude increase China has Tian 3 and ocean light which are publicly known about that are both exop flop and at least four other xof flop computers that can run these giant models and they can Source the chips elsewhere but again we're moving from this thing of big Compu was a substitute for crap data and we can do distributed compute and data augmentation that's the type of thing China's very very good at they're good at industrialization there are approaches now we're seeing with opena and others where why did they invest in figure robotics for robots who's

going to build most of the robots of the world it's going to be China well I think I think they're going to they will have their companies that comp compete against the US base for sure uh and one of the things that's interesting is these humanoid robots become a source of data as well will feedb into that data augmentation but I think a large part of this is we've had this AI AGI giant model fixation where I think it's more about a distributed collective intelligence that's constantly learning and adapting from Real World usage again a

swarm of robots would be an ideal one for that right just like a swarm of Teslas a swarm of robots and then we've had this fixation on really gigantic compute when it can be localized data optimization that then feeds in if you optimize the data for models you can have orders of magnitude less compute required but we're not quite sure what that data optimization is yet and I think again this is a race to this existential threat type of thing where it's China versus I don't really buy that honestly you do push for international cooperation

how do we get International cooperation in AI what would be you're on the stage you've got the Nations leaders around the world what are you saying to them I think that you know we're already seeing exoscale computers come on board with things like the Euro HPC initiative with the new Japanese ex scale computer unfortunately Britain sh its one for the time being like a coordinated deliberative effort to build high quality data sets and models for Humanity generalized localized and specialized like we're doing that anyway at shelling you know and we'll be building national champions that

can collaborate with governments and more um and then I think standards around input data we care about the ingredients that feed us in our food but not the ingredients that teach us and will guide us in the future I think that any decision-making system should have data transparency and I think that will go a large way to helping on AI safety on AI alignment and more and you know really thinking about what should we feed these models we should feed them diverse data you know not from a Dei or anything perspective but from diversity of

viewpoints representing Humanity versus that snapshot on the internet and ensure that we have that done properly one of the conversations we've had as well is you know most of the Corpus fed the AI models are Western if not us um and there's you know 100 Nations out there that don't have their data digitized in other words the the data of uh of the GR father and grandmother is in verbal language and hasn't been you know digitized in a way that it can be consumed by an AI model I mean for me that's a that's a

massive Public Works project that countries could take on 100% I think that you know we're going to be doing that with cryptoeconomic other incentives at shelling uh the goal is to build a data set for every nation and be massively collaborative as well as for individual sectors and Science and more and there'll be more details of that soon as a self system but we can think of it like you know um we send a probe out to space right what's on that that represents Humanity we engage with the new species CU we've got a new

species this AI Atlantis a new continent are we showing them one cultural point of view what's on that data hard drive that we send them what do we feed in and again who do we want to represent and I think you need to have this hive mind concept you need this collective intelligence concept because that's how we and flourish as a society I don't think it's about scaling up a liberal arts polymath you know I think it's about building a hive collective intelligence and neuralink and others again are huge things around that um and having

it reflect the best of humanity and everyone contribute what they think the best of their culture is because then these models can translate between cultures and I think that's just beneficial full stop and that is the education system at small yeah helping people you know one of the things I find AI so incredibly useful is if if there's someone on the opposite side of a of an issue or someone who who I'm not able to clearly understand their motivations AI can help me communicate with that individual in a way that uh I never could right

please help me explain my position on guns to someone on the other side of of it in a way that they might be receptive to to it um that translation of not just language but translation of intent and desire it's a knowledge translation it's a context translation and again this is the universal translator that's what these models are and again I think we need to deliberately get together and build that out and realize I think this is very important the Leopold essay assumes a negative sum game again there's fantastic things I 80% of it is

great this is a massive positive sum game and most of the AI discussions negative sum which I don't think they should point out where does he point out negative sum game there's a negative sum game in that we must be the first to AG because then it contracts everything as opposed to building open common infrastructure for everyone this is a competitive race Dynamic with unstable equilibria I I mean I think he's his point of view includes the potential for a hard takeoff and at that point if in fact we have uh an intelligence explosion the

person who gets there first uh dominates it and it's a question of do we want the US and its National Partners getting there first well I think this is interesting because it's reflected in the Sam mman recent oped in the Wall Street Journal where he talks about authoritarian AI versus Democratic AI but then recommends that it's locked down and it's restricted and it's basically unitary in its point of view which sounds very authoritarian verus you know China is producing open source AI That's as good as all this stuff already and it's a complex thing but

again I think that there should exist open infrastructure and a collective approach as well as this collected approach shall we say I want to hit on two final points um investing in AI a lot of people right now are like I know AI is huge I know it's the most important part in the world for us economically we're seeing these companies uh from Nvidia and Google and Microsoft you know dominate the stock market uh and it's like you know if you look at if you look at these these companies as a percentage of the global

GDP compared to other Market sectors they're massive and so the question is how does an investor think about it today where should they be putting their money um do they continue to invest in the in the Giants or uh are they overpriced what's your I don't I'm not sure if I'm asking for investment advice but how should someone think how should someone think about since your paper is about had to think about AI how should they think about investing in AI a separate thing putting on my former hedge fund manager hat I mean so look

I think that the first wave was kind of these nvidias and kind of others uh Microsoft and Google Etc they're up like what 20 30% over the last year uh maybe 50% it's not a huge amount the in line with Market Nvidia has been the standout you know because theyve established market dominance they capitalized on it but it's not expensive like Cisco was in the do com Boom for example as an infrastructure provider on classical terms but what I think is happening here is that we're going to have an overbuild regardless obviously we will because

they can't afford to underbuild but then we move on to the application and implementation of this technology by cental and so highly regulated Industries or Industries with pricing power that can replace wrote human work with AI Atlantis has supernormal margins and then you see a margin expansion the impact of this is how much will it cost to when we had cloud computing it reduced the cost of building a startup dramatically remember we had to wire up our own servers and everything now you will have an AI agent in the box that can help you build

a hairdressing business or a AI business or whatever almost there in the next few years so have this explosion of creativity AI enabled work I think is where you see this the most so pricing power is kind of one thing industries that can have this on the other side to increase their reach so you increase your audience again where if this business existed I could apply a million graduates you know liberal arts grads and they'll be increasingly specialized how does that impact that should be a framework for looking at the business opportunities of any stock

and again regulated Industries with pricing power are fantastic place for that you don't need the PRI Equity to come in anymore and redo that do do you think the current do you think the current major players of Nvidia Google Microsoft are overvalued or they still have growth on classical valuation terms they are perfectly fine on valuation and again we're seeing continued growth and it's not like it's crazy yet bubbles in the past though we've seen crazy this is not crazy yet mhm like you know when you're valued by the number of eyeballs in the.com bubble

and things like that that we've seen second question here this does point to something which is how much of the global economy will be AI a lot as compared to where what it is today which is still minuscule yes and again if we compare it to even self-driving cars you still need five 10 times as much investment to catch up to self-driving cars versus model training my last question my friend is on the education front uh a lot of people are looking I need to get educated uh you've said this on the abundance stage we've

said this in our podcast that it's critical for anybody at any point in their career to become educated about AI what do you think they should do how do they how do they start uh I'm not seeing this uh happening in high schools uh I'm sure there are courses in colleges um do they just head to YouTube or do they just uh go to to gemini or chat GPT and and have a conversation with the AI I think that's probably one of the things you should recommend to governments which is a standardized AI curriculum on

implement Ing and using things like prompting and other things but really it is about just using it day-to-day and thinking of it not as the expert but The Graduate you know um and so there are a few these things the mid Journeys and the uh chat gpts and others of the world like this is where bringing the next generation is useful as you said you got your Chief AI officer but also your almost Chief AI innovator or trer that's just hacking and trying and thinking how can I apply this to the day-to-day workflow again you

have things like um your lindies of the world and your others that can chain together different models I think that's the next stage but you've got a little bit of time now but you've got to get AI native by immersing yourself there's no better way of doing that and you shouldn't be overwhelmed by the technology or getting into the weeds because that is a massive massive depth thing again that's why I wanted to create this piece just to give a bit of a framework and then encourage people to try and use the technology and think

about the world in a slightly different way Imad what can we expect next from you um uh what's on what's on the near-term horizon here um so we're kind of finishing the implementation document of a white paper on what an open distributed um AI system looks like on a practical basis to build these data sets for every nation and every sector and then chain them together into things that can really make an impact open source in a sustainable way so hard at work on that um and then we start well we're getting our clusters into

start building models you know nothing like it and then release and see what the world makes so today uh title wise founder of shelling yep that's the one are you going to uh you going to take the CEO role or hire a CEO to support you what do you think being a CEO is like said staring into theis cheering glass maybe I'll see if I can avoid it for as long as possible that's why you build intelligent protocols they canbe get an AI model an AI model to be your CEO uh maybe I will actually

that's a good idea I think we'll get lots of advice from aiper um where can folks follow you on on social and and website and such I think yeah my ex is at EAC and then at shelling AI for our um company organization as well buddy thank you for the time uh again if you've not had a chance to read uh imad's paper how to think about AI it's a very uh for me powerful succinct and clear uh structure for thinking about this I find it very compelling I will put the link in the show

notes um and Imad looking forward to uh to seeing you again shortly my friend take care thank you for having me on [Music]