Ex-CIA Spy: China Is Preparing & We're Not Paying Attention! Here's What Happens If They Takeover!

China is at war with the West already we just don't see it and when I look at a map like this I see a lot of problems here is one issue over there Putin is threatening nuclear weapons and then this regime has been engaged in assassination plots on the president elect and then over here this is looming right as a major issue who's the real enemy of the West in your opinion I've talked to a number of experts and their take is is that how do you think this ends um EX CIA officer Mike Baker

spent decades in the field mastering the Spy skills you need to achieve success in business and everyday life and offers unique insights into the looming geopolitical threats that's facing the West when you left the CIA you start being a spy for companies why because in its core the cia's responsibility is to get intelligence because without that you cannot make smart strategic decisions and if you can sell the idea to somebody that they should commit treason on their country and betray their family to gather intelligence and Protect US National Security interests then that's an incredible skill

to use in selling in business and there's a lot of ways you can do this people are capable of it more so than they realize but there's a lot of similarities between what I used to do in the Spy world and what you do in business there's targeting manipulation psychology of how people think identifying weaknesses and leverage how they close the deal the most important thing I took away was what I referred to as getting off the X and that's how you get companies to stay with you for 20 years let's go through all of

them first of all you start with this has always blown my mind a little bit 53% of you that listen to the show regularly haven't yet subscribed to the show so could I ask you for a favor before we start if you like the show and you like what we do here and you want to support us the free simple way that you can do just that is by hitting the Subscribe button and my commitment to you is if you do that then I'll do everything in my power me and my team to make sure

that this show is better for you every single week we'll listen to your feedback we'll find the guest that you want me to speak to and we'll continue to do what we do thank you so much [Music] Mike who are you and give me a couple of sentences on the Journey of your career and what it's exposed you to I'm a a dude who's been very fortunate in life um I started with the CIA uh at an early age not necessarily expecting to start with the CIA and the operations directorate and you you joined the

CIA at 22 years old yeah basically um early ' 80s beginning of the 80s what was your how did you sort of encapsulate your mission into a couple of sentences during that time this is going to sound really weird to do whatever I was instructed to do um to further um the mission objectives so and what I mean by that is that's not just me or another officer or somebody else in there that's their job so the CIA doesn't set priorities it doesn't set Set uh tasking right that's done by the White House um and

those in the White House in the government at the time the administration at the time for setting the priorities tasking and that's in part obviously Guided by intelligence provided by the intelligence community so it's it's a symbiotic relationship but the tasking comes into the agency and the agency says Fine get on with it and that could be collection of Intelligence on a particular subject and so you could be talking about we need to know what uh Putin's plans and intentions are we need to know what's the uh breakout time for the Iranian regime to actually

uh reach uh weapons capability for the nuclear program whatever the tasking is right it comes into the agency the agency then fine let's get busy with it and there's other elements of the Intel Community all working very hard to accomplish that same thing so it could be the NSA is also working on that it could be military Ence is also working on that there's there's a lot of moving Parts but uh my part was was at the agency so did you have to spend a lot of time overseas and if so if you were overseas

what were you doing overseas yeah uh I spent uh my entire time um I never had a what you would call a headquarters tour so I spent all my time overseas traveling what was your day-to-day like because it's just it's just a world so far away from anything that I know so I'm like you spend all that time in the CIA overseas when you wake up in the morning are you are you undercover because if you're in a foreign country presumably they don't know that you're part of the CIA well no we have different types

of of operations and different types of things I mean so you can you could end up living in a in a foreign country for two or three years right you got a home there and you're you know you're working there and and um other times it could be a short one-off operation where you're just dropping in to do something in particular maybe to meet an asset or whatever it might be what's an asset an asset is a is a source uh is a recruited source so um that's a good point there's there's misconception sometimes in

vocabulary right so they'll say CIA agent well in reality it's a CIA officer the agent is the person that's been recruited or the asset um the the human source and so that's and that's a that's a in incredible skill right to be able to go out you have to you have to identify first of all you start with what's what's the information you're looking for and that's the fascinating thing this it turns out that what I used to do and what we do in in my business which is you know intelligence and investigations um Security

Services is pretty much the same thing what information does the client in the cia's case that's the US government what information does the client need uh where does it reside who has access to it and how can you you get a hold of it appropriately right so how can you get that information you identify the target then you figure out you know what you need to do to uh develop potentially a relationship you develop that relationship then you if you're fortunate enough you recruit that asset that person could be a deputy foreign minister could be

a senior military officer could be could be a cab driver you know who uh can tell you everything that's happening in a particular neighborhood of Interest whatever it might be um but that process of that that recruitment cycle um of the spotting you know targeting development recruitment running then you've got to maintain that relationship and the interesting thing is um often times particularly when you're talking about a really a really important asset someone who's in a position of access um maybe because they've risen up through their own government right that that window from the minute

you get them on board you set the hook you get them recruited and they start reporting taking tasking that window starts to close and there's a clock that that's ticking because usually that's a it can be a corrosive thing on on a person's in you know character right on on on their on their their being right so you recruit a you recruit a Russian right um you're you're always in the back of your mind thinking okay you you know how long do we have here right before because it it's unless they're a psychotic right then

then they don't care they don't give a [ __ ] they they'll be happy to to to do this but it's not a normal thing right so to be able to convince somebody to sell the idea to somebody that they should uh they should um essentially commit treason on their country right um is is a remarkable thing I've always felt anyway so then when I went into business you know the idea of of business development of selling seemed like sure that's that's an easy lift right because yeah that's anyway I'm disappearing down a rabbit hole

no you're not I mean this is exactly the rabbit hole that I wanted to go down because I mean this is the D so I do want to understand how you think about selling because that seems like the hardest thing to sell to get you know potentially a Russian to commit treason against their country I'm thinking God what what are you offering them in in terms of an incentive um so would would your job in that be to convince them or would it be to go and meet them to collect the information or would it

be something else could be all of those be all of those and then part of it depends on where what location I mean sometimes you have you have difficult places obviously it's more difficult to work in in um a challenging environment like um pick a place I mean right now current conf think about working in Lebanon right if you're developing or working with a source I don't there's not a lot of potential recruits forah right now they don't even though there's Headroom they don't I don't don't think there's a lot of willing people wanting to

take some of those jobs but but the point being is is uh that um you could end up doing all of those things you might have spotted somebody you might develop them you might recruit them right and you're going to handle them for a while uh maybe then you're going to head off someplace else and someone else is going to come in and take over that relationship that's also a crucial point right because you know if you've developed a a a personal relationship with somebody uh to the point where they're going yeah I guess I

can't do that I can't provide you with Intelligence on this or that right because think about they're not just betraying they're not betraying their country I've always thought about this uh particularly when we're talking about Traders here uh in the states right we you you know edley Howard Jim Nicholson right um who are these people Hansen these are all traders to the US so um moles whatever you want to call them within the uh agency Hansen was a at the FBI one of the most destructive Traders we ever had but what did he do um

he interestingly enough um was a longtime FBI agent who um he was responsible for uh Counter Intelligence to some degree uh for a big degree uh related to the former Soviet Union and Russia um and so he had a tremendous amount of knowledge about how the Russian service worked right and then eventually he ended up uh allowing he wasn't even recruited he offered his services but he offered him in such a way because he understood how they worked that he was able to do it without the Russians knowing who he was right so it was

a very remote relationship and he trolled it which is fascinating which allowed him to then do this for a very long period of time and and betray a number of of uh of of our Russian assets and those people didn't have a happy ending and so uh but the the idea is that you look at those people or you look at anybody who does that right they're not just portraying their country they're betraying their their service they're betraying their family all all these things because it's a it's a fascinating psychology and if you don't think

about that if you don't understand that then I think it's hard to to close the deal with anybody um what is that deal so in the case of the gentleman you mentioned who was a traitor to the US is he getting paid is it money that they're doing it was he was getting paid he had some issues he was he was kind of a quirky individual he was spending a lot of money on a mistress or someone who you imagined to be his mistress and um motivation can be a difficult thing right sometimes and sometimes

it's a very straightforward thing it's usually not ideology interesting yeah I know that that I had the same thought when when I first started and and they kind of went through this process of saying what are motivations well money is a big one so you've got you know and then ideology not so much uh sometimes it could be something as simple as they've got a sick kid they can't get treatment for the kid in whatever country they happen to reside in sometimes it's it's it's more based than that just they they don't feel like they

got enough hugs from their employer or they feel disrespected by their their their their their government or whatever you you have to be able to identify those weaknesses and then you have to be willing to to play on them frankly and so on the point of identification if you met me and I was an asset is that that's the word right um you would be I mean you know if we had just met yeah you would you would be a potential a potential Source Target uh velopmental okay so I've got I'm a cab driver and

I drive a high ranking official and every day in the car he's telling me everything that's going on he's just offloading so you want to recruit me right yeah so how' you go about recruiting me well theoretically it's it's just going to be I'm going to find something that you're interested in how and then I'm going to be a conversation it's as simple as that so you might get in my cab one day yeah and then I'll I'll just get in your cab and we'll start talking and people love this you I mean you're probably

on planes as much as I am um people love to talk right and they love to talk about themselves right so if you get if if you just ask questions right if that's all you do you don't have to say anything about yourself right I don't know how many thousands of conversations I've had where you know someone says so what are you doing I said just you know I'll give them some [ __ ] I mean not now but and as soon as you give them something that doesn't sound interesting then fine now you got

a A Runway then you just turn it on onto them and say so what do you do people want to talk about themselves it's it's it's striking sometimes and I mean we find this all the time and it's just information gathering right like if we if we have a client and they say uh we've got a a business in pickup Place let's just just for grins let's say China we've got an investment that we've made in China but it doesn't it's not sense right we're not seeing what we thought we were going to see from

the revenues or from the the the production whatever what's going on well if we have someone Rock up at that factory or that manufacturing facility or whatever and outside there outside the factory is just rows of of noodle shops or whatever you know food trucks or whatever you want to call but there's a maybe there's a security guard or you know some people just sitting around they love to talk right because they've got nothing else going on in their day right and so the information you can get from people whether it's a security guard sitting

in a booth all day long who's suddenly going to tell you well no the plant is only up and operating Mondays Wednesdays and Fridays or you know this is this is the number of trucks that are coming out you know little benign stuff that that no one's going to think anything of the amount of information you can gather from people um maybe it's someone who's working as a cleaner in a building maybe it's a cab driver it doesn't matter um you know it's it's a secretary in a business right you're you're looking for people with

access who um they're just going to be inclined to talk right it it sounds odd sometimes but you get that conversation going you find things that the person's interested in then you start mirroring that perhaps maybe that oh you know I'm interested in that too maybe I'm not maybe I find it boring as hell there was one where it was like chess I was like God damn I hate chess but but the guy was really into chess right and uh it was overseas and and uh we were drinking and bumped into him at the bar

and and uh you know we started talking and turns out that his his passion was chess suddenly my passion is chess problem is you got to demonstrate that right and I sucked at it so so it was a quick a quick uh crash course in how to at least make myself look somewhat reasonable um but then and then you're just looking for other points of of of of access and and what that turns into is points of Leverage so that sounds you know if once you take it further enough down the the the the walk

it can sound very mercenary right and it is you're talking about again asking people to do something that's not necessarily in their best interests but you're doing it for a very stated purpose now again a lot of people will listen to this and go that's just [ __ ] you're just doing it for the man right you're doing it for the the government and okay well you know what nations that are hostile to us interests or UK's interests or Australia's interest or Canada's interest or Europe's interest they're doing this all the time and they're doing

it a lot more aggressively and with no guard rails about how they behave right so yeah yeah so I'm that cab driver I've started off loading to because you've got me talking you've told me your you know you've said your career is not interesting I start talking at what point do you seek out that leverage so at some point you're looking for him to maybe say his son's sick or something right well I mean yeah something along those lines or you're just looking for you're looking for um you're building a profile of the person's personality

right so you're trying to understand what's important to them you're trying to understand what drives them you're trying to understand where their problems are you know uh you're trying to understand if they have any grievances you're looking for you're really just building a a a a map of what this P person is like you're not going to get that in one taxi ride oh no no no not at all not at all so what do you want to do you want to you want to have a you want to have a reason to uh uh

meet up again right you're always looking in simple terms you know you get that first encounter what do you want well you want a second encounter so you got to find some reason for that now sometimes it's easier than other times right like so you know you can't uh uh you know you can't always get that but that's what you're looking for another reason to meet back up with that individual seemingly just for no reason it just happens right or or uh I mean it's like this morning I got in a car right um was

an Uber and at the end of the the uh the drive the guy gives me his card says uh hey you know if if you ever need a ride whatever um you know I've got a couple of cars and so I you know this is kind of what I do plus I do the draw Uber I like that as well um and so now yeah fine I can give him a call back right and and I've done that overseas in cases where I've said look I you know I need to know that I can get

from point A to point B tomorrow can I just call you rather than hope that I catch a cab there's a lot of ways you can do this it's not it's not rocket science you know but it can be um it can be uh difficult when you're talking about a high value Target yeah yeah yeah cab driver is probably a little bit more straightforward because there's a clear reason why you'd frequent the the Pres but maybe the head of the Iranian nuclear program might be a little bit more complicated to although that would be good

too um yeah so your training they they they find you at 22 years old I hear what do they train you to be good at there's everything from um tradecraft which is a key part of it and tradecraft encompasses a lot of things right it's it's how do you conduct yourself overseas how do you do clandestine Communications um how' you go cover how do you go undercover um use of Disguise uh there's surveillance counter surveillance uh there's there's a lot to when I just say tradecraft what that involves um and then there's other training there's

paramilitary training and and other things that you do what about people skills what are the people skills they try and teach you there's a lot of talking about um um the psychology of the recruitment process uh which means you're diving into you know profiling individuals the psychology of of how people think um what that process does to an individual I mean and and there's um it's interesting I mean there's there's there's some folks who who I think struggled with that more than others and I think the idea of of of of getting people to that

point of recruiting people I think some folks I think found it uh difficult maybe problematic right because of of the manipulation involved um you know I I I didn't I again not necessarily being a deep thinker I didn't sit a lot of the time you know at home angst ridden over you know whether I was being manipulative or not I was just I have a task I'm going to do the task and and and then move on but um the training can take quite a while can a couple of years uh before they feel like

you're ready to to go out so you eventually leave the CIA um after a very very long career there why did you leave my daughter was young and um uh I was in the process of uh of getting a divorce uh which took a while my ex-wife great person but not compatible by the end I think I my career was a little difficult um and so I needed to do something that kept me closer to home you started doing corporate Espionage thereafter we call it we call it strategic intelligence and investigations okay so for someone

that doesn't know what strategic intelligence and investigations corporate Espionage is it's effectively being a spy for companies it could be there could be an element of that yes I'm not gonna I'm not going to deny that look it's it there are corporations out there that are very aggressive in understanding what other companies are doing right in particular um but what we got started in um was primarily a company will come to you and say we're making an investment in a country we've never operated in before pick a country um tell us everything we need to

know what what are the problems what are the risks what are the threats what are you know how do you assess that uh it could be we've had a fraud we've had a and and and now we've had theft of intellectual property we need to know how bad it is um it could be we're doing a joint venture and we just need to know about who we're investing in right you never know it could be that they're saying look we're we're not having any success in maybe they're in the mining sector we're not having any

success in Africa where we're trying to pick up these licenses and yet these other companies are picking them up left and right what are we doing wrong what are they doing right who are they dealing with so now we're getting closer to what you referred to as corporate Espionage um but you have to because you're not working for a government you know the the guard rails have now shrunk right in terms of what you can do and so you have to know what is uh legally appropriate in each jurisdiction and that changes right what you

can do over here is different than what you could do in the UK or in France or in the US or whatever so as long as you know what the parameters are um then you you you do that right to gather information that's going to benefit the client did you have to go undercover terms of physical disguises yeah yeah on on occasion which was great yeah I mean if you like if you I I love the acting part of it right because you you'd be you'd be I would get completely absorbed in it right and

then uh and I I loved it so I I didn't have a problem sometimes people don't enjoy it or they don't it's it's not if you if you're not confident if you don't have if you're put on a disguise whether it's a full overhead mask or whether it's just you know disguised kid or whatever uh if you're not comfortable doing that it'll show out right but if you're walking down the street in Disguise nobody on that street is thinking oh that guy's in Disguise it's not how people think right so unless you do something stupid

it's not going to show out did you ever wear a Masque yeah yeah that's apris look we had Hollywood makeup artists uh there that I mean their their disguise unit is legendary amazing what they can do yeah why did you write company rules I felt like for me over a short period of time after I'd been involved in private sector for for quite a while it suddenly occurred to me that I was the reason why we were able to keep a business breathing was because of some of these things that I absorbed from the company

right the these rules the and it's not like there a book they don't hand you a book and say Here's your company rules on day one right it's they're implied they're they're kind of embedded in the training process of the CIA of the CIA right and so what I hadn't realized was I because I thought when I got out look people asked me when I said I was going to leave I I didn't retire I was too young to retire I was leaving right I left behind my pension and everything I didn't have there was

no Financial reason to do what I did and um so they were their question was always the same which what the hell you going to do I I didn't have an answer which probably should have been a red flag but um I knew I was going to have to go into kind of this world of gathering information of Security Services because I I don't think I'd fit anywhere else and so it took me a long time to realize that the reason why I was able to build a business and I couldn't have built a business

with a very very close friend of mine uh Nick day who came out of of uh um SPS and and uh MI5 um but we couldn't have done that if I hadn't absorbed some of that training and those rules as I put them from the agency and so that's why I wanted to try to say look this is why I was able to do this um and keep a business breathing look we haven't built a mega Corporation but we built a nice life for a lot of people right and what are the most sort of

transferable rules that you were able to transfer from your time as a CI working in the CIA to the world of business that you were like oh my God this is exactly the same game here the same technique I mean first and foremost it was um we'll start out with the first one that I put down which which is Define the mission right so the agency does that very well with a very outset you spend a lot of time sitting in classrooms listening to people explain how the agency works why it works the way it

does where it fits within the government what its purpose what it's what its mission is and if you don't know that right then whether it's the CIA or whether it's your business then you got a problem you probably shouldn't really get started and then you have to communicate that mission and that's what they did very very well and so I took that away and I was always very simpl minded in terms of a business I always knew what I wanted to do which was provide again the best quality product possible that's how you get companies

to stay with you for 20 years right they know you're going to bust your ass and you're going to overproduce and you're going to do everything within again within the balance of what you can do to give them the best information so that they can then win in whatever they're working or operating and then we we you know I think if you if you hire smart people um and you explain the mission you communicate that properly to them then you know your battles half one right you really you know you you you've cracked that that

uh that nut but then other parts of it are uh you've got to know your uh your risk appetite and the agency spends a lot of time I guess that was my point from earlier is it a lot of people think the agency just goes out and does [ __ ] right let's just go blow that building up or let's go pick up that high value Target or let's go whatever it is we're going to do and they don't give any thought to it because that's how the movies operate right and they just yeah go

do this [ __ ] um there's a lot of time spent on risk versus gain um and what's the potential blowback what are those scenarios look like so you have to know your risk appetite and you have to communicate that because everybody has to be on the same page as to what's allowable and what's not allowable and that's true in in in in private sector as well we have to know you can't do this you can't have a a one party conversation and record it in particular jurisdiction or you know no you can't can't do

the following because the information you're Gathering is end up in court it's got to be you know evidentially proper so things have to be done in a in a in an appropriate way so if you don't know all those things then you're going to get yourself you know crosswise somehow um know your operating environment is a key thing uh this is a a constant surprise sometimes with with some companies that we start working with where you realize that they don't necessarily understand the operating environment they where they're working what the market rest restrictions are what

their competitors are doing right what the uh the government is like in that particular country what the instability issues are what whatever it may be you put all that together you know your operating environment you know your your risk uh you defined your mission and then at some point you got to um make decisions right and I think that's again long-winded answer to your question which is probably the most important thing I took away was uh what I referred to as getting off the a and the a is the Ambush site so in in the

old days you don't want to end up on the Ambush site that's a bad place to be um and there are indicators right whether you're talking about being in in Mexico and rolling up on a cartel Ambush or you're talking about being overseas uh in a place like U Iraq and you're in a convoy movement and you have to understand what the indicators are that something bad is is going to happen if you don't make a decision you're never going to get all the information you want in business right but there are a lot of

people who get paralyzed by that they want all the data you know they want to be able to think through and that's you know that's a good thing if that's your mindset but something bad's going to happen or you're going to miss an opportunity it's going to pass you by and so one of the things that the agency taught was just make a damn decision right with the information that you've got you're always going to want more but with the information that you've got whether it's imperfect or not understand the nature of that information but

then just make a damn decision right how do they get you to do that because there's a lot of people listening now that are maybe paralyzed in their own personal lives with a decision to leave a job to leave a city to leave a partner yeah you know or a big strategic decision that's actually really good it's a good point yeah uh I I the agency teaches you through sort of repetition and and uh and understanding that would sorry you waited too long this is this is not good you you uh but in a in

a better sense I think what I've learned also is look I tell my kids this all the time um I tell my boys and my daughter this is it there's never that many options on the decision tree right not that life's completely binary but we tend to overthink everything and we tend to over complicate things when we're faced with a decision whether it's do I leave my my job uh do I move whatever it might be do I you know take a big strategic decision for my company you tend to you tend to over complicate

right life I I've always found and maybe maybe I'm simple-minded but one of the things that I I took away from the agency is that life sometimes is just as simple as it seems right again why I'm not a big conspiracy theor theorist but um so if you narrow it down and say look I'm not faced with an endless array of options here you know I may have on any big decision I may have two or three options right I'm going to take this job okay what does that mean well it means I'm taking a

chance take okay people talk about writing your positives and your negatives down I don't know whether that's really a helpful thing or not right because then you get lost in this list and then you start imagining positives and negatives and then it's a so I always try to say look you gotta you don't act just for the sake of acting right that's sometimes has its own negative consequences but you you take the information you've got and then you just you you make a decision right because if you again if it's the inertia of not acting

if you're if you're in an unhappy relationship and you say you know what do I do do I stay in this unhappy relationship because maybe it's going to get better okay what are the odds of that happening right it's been going on for 10 years maybe you're not happy get the hell out right do something different if you're thinking about changing your job if you're not happy in your job which is a it's a quality of life issue right I and I tell that to to my folks all the time if you think you would

be happier somewhere else you got to go give it a try if you think you'd be happier going out and starting a business you should do that right but you got to you got to jump in and I know I'm I'm this is probably not as detailed as a you know psychiatrist would give but I really do honestly believe that any any major decision you can distill it down to a very very limited number of options and that makes it easier but if you just sit there staring at it and people do I would see

the this in operations all the time people would just start imagining all the different scenarios and I thought you know what honest to God when the the when the whistle goes right and the Ambush starts and usually you shouldn't start an ambush with a whistle um you know it's going to go you know one way another way you don't don't don't don't get bogged down in what could happen What might happen that was another thing I think I I did well at the agency was I didn't ever sit around and stare at my belly button

and think well I wonder what would have happened if I had done this no you live with your mistakes you live with your consequences you live with the good things life is tough enough as it is right and we just we just seem like we want to make it tougher and I don't ever understand that it's an interesting time in the United States at the moment is it something happen yeah I mean it's an interesting time in the world to be honest when you think about everything that's going on very very unique times but Trump

has just been elected he's now president president-elect of the United States is that consequential and if so how would you believe it to be consequential yeah uh what do they say don't talk about politics religion or taxes um so yes I think it is consequential um I think it was something that uh very few people predicted the the size of the of the victory uh look he um he took all the swing States right um he turned uh a surprising number of of districts uh in favor of the Republicans in states that he didn't win

um he outperformed in most categories right uh the demographics were rather shocking right and people wanted to talk about how well it's going to be the it's going to come down to the Women Voters well it didn't right fewer Women Voters voted for kamla Harris they did previously for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden right so and he gained in uh in Suburban voters Women Voters so it's consequential in reshaping at least in in the short to midterm people's understanding of the uh the electorate I think now it's probably not consequential in the fact that I

don't know that the Democrats they don't seem to be doing it yet I don't think they're going to be particularly uh uh self-aware or introspective right they spent months longer than that referring to a large portion of the population as uh as moronic as unintelligent as sexist as racist as um as as garbage as fascists as Nazis right they you how you do that and then not understand how you've just gotten kicked in the ass during the election I'm not quite sure but they seem incapable right now of any sort of reflection on what they

need to do as a party right to maybe turn things around so I don't know consequentially whether it's going to change the Democrat Party for the next election um but yeah it'll be and and then you have to ask yourself okay the policies that you know that that are important um from National Security perspective from foreign policy you know what are we looking at differently here with Trump coming in do do you think he's going to end some Wars like the war in the Ukraine and Russia do you think he's going to end that because

I mean he's he's pretty much said in the election cycle that he was gonna call Putin an end it on day one or something like that so I yeah that's right I forgot about that it's gonna end it on day one gonna stop this war um yeah with set Trump over here to the side for a second M and you have to look at the what's happening on the ground right with Ukraine and Russia because that will determine whether Trump's going to be successful in any move that he makes so the problem that Ukraine is

facing right now is a they're going into winter and a massive percentage of their uh energy infrastructure has been destroyed by by Russia so it's going to be a very hard winter um you look at the resolve of the Ukrainian people and uh an Institute in ke does these very interesting um surveys of Ukrainian citizens in in in throughout Ukraine not just in Kei on a regular basis and they ask questions like you know um are you willing to fight indefinitely are you willing to stay in the game are you willing to give it your

all you know for however long it takes and to that question to that phrasing at the beginning of the year 73% said yes right of the citizenry uh last month it was uh 63% right it's and so that's a 10% drop is significant when we're talking about the fate of your nation um they they're losing um they're losing soldiers at an alarming rate and they have a significant uh disadvantage to the Russians terms of Manpower Russian Manpower has depending on who you talk to maybe a three to1 advantage in terms of available combatants um the

Russian military is gaining ground in the eastern part of Ukraine in theet in particular it's a the the the front the front line is about 600 miles long 620 miles long um in overall right now if you said stop the war stop the fighting right now Russia controls 20% of Ukraine good time to my little map here so you can show me what you're talking about why why did Russia start this war well I mean if you if you wanted a sort of a theoretical 30,000 foot answer um Putin has repeatedly uh referred to the

collapse of the Soviet Union as the greatest disaster of the 20th century and he meant it right and so he's been trying and he hasn't been shy about it ever since he's he's been in charge which seems now like about 100 years um to recreate the glory the strength of the former Soviet Union in some capacity not not you know entirely he's not he's not crazy but he is completely jonesing for some form of of a of a stronger Russia um and in his mind that means he's got to have a buffer zone between him

and NATO right and so this is this is part of that he also considers if you if you think about it right here he's basically saying this is mine right if you think that which is the east of this is this is the Eastern part of Ukraine right here is it's Ukraine um Front Line This is not I mean you know I'm simplifying this but front line stretches about 600 miles uh he's also annexed of course Crimea but that's that's another issue here and that's that's the only port for their Black Sea Fleet which Ukrainian

military is frankly destroyed almost um at this stage of the game but they own at this stage they've got about 20% of of uh Ukraine if you were to say you know stop the shooting now and then the the the problem is that at the outset of this this war zalinski and the Ukrainian government uh said you know the only answer here is total Victory we have to get all our territory back Crimea detet Lans zapia uh we have to get it all back and that is not again it's not satisfying to say this but

it's not possible right so the problem that is being faced right now is when this war got started in the first year year and a half everybody was you know they were putting their Flags Ukrainian flags on their porch they were putting a little flag on their their X site their Twitter site um they go okay and there's no doubt the Ukrainian military has been incredibly courageous and the population of Ukraine has put up with a great deal look the months of September and October of this year those two months there's only been one night

when keev hasn't been under attack by Russian drones right which is if you think about it it's insane right and that's just Kei they all their other their major cities have also been under attack by the Russians they've destroyed much of their energy infrastructure um now a bright spot was for for the Ukrainian military was that they did a surprise offensive into KK which is Russian territory and in doing that that was the first time there were foreign troops on Russian Turf right since World War II um and that really shocked the hell out of

Putin and and the Russian military and they acted as if they really didn't know how to resp respond didn't have the resources to respond but this is a game of attrition right we're going into our you know full third year early this coming year um and what's kept them in the fight is US support and EU or NATO support the eu's done very good job I mean look they've they've picked up uh a great part of the of the the uh the effort without that support this thing would never have lasted lasted this long never

and so I think Putin in part has been very surprised he miscalculated a lot of things but he miscalculated the sort of support that Ukraine would receive from nato in particular um and now and why is NATO giving so much support why is this in their interests well think about where Ukraine is yeah think about where Poland is look Russian missiles have flown errantly into into Poland um their history tells them or informs them that if Putin takes this Ukraine yeah it takes Ukraine then it's not as if he's going to say okay I'm done

I'm finished right they believe now whether they're right or not this is but this answers the question about why such strong NATO support they believe that that's not his inclination right it's not in his his character to say that's all I want I'm good what do you think I take him at his word when he says he wants to recreate the former Soviet Union in a fashion do I think this is enough of a buffer from NATO for him I don't think so do I think he might uh consider moving a little bit further north

look he already has this is Belarus bellus is a solid Ally of uh of Putin um but is there a chance that you know he says to himself well well you know maybe over here he's already made verbal threats up here so L Latvia yeah and so I I think I understand what their mindset is it's like Israel right we sometimes we like oh my God why is Israel acting the way they do well because they're surrounded by a ring of terrorist proxy that all are there to serve the purpose of the Iranian regime which

is to destroy Israel so that's their mindset right we don't live there we don't understand it so to say okay well that's ridiculous for someone in the US to go it's ridiculous that that's Putin okay you know well [ __ ] off you don't live here right you're not in Poland watching this if he takes over Ukraine and so and world wasn't so long ago exactly it wasn't until I studied World War II which actually wasn't very long ago it was about 6 months ago that I understood the sort of geopolitical backdrop as to why

you need to defend Ukraine because when you see you can probably explain it better than me but what Hitler did and he just took a little bit was it like Czechoslovakia just a little bit take this piece and a little bit more and then he took a little bit more and then a little bit more and by by the end of it he was trying to take the UK he was trying to take Russia he was trying to take the lot over here in the states right you had this isolationist feeling so World War II

is happening um and they don't want any of it right they've went through World War I they sent a lot of their boys over and they're like no screw it you know look we got this big ocean here you know we don't have to worry about it and yeah that that was that's a problem and but you see that now there's some of this this isolationist attitude which is why do we even care and that's a okay fine that's a great question to ask people should ask questions like that but um yeah I'm telling you

having having worked against Russia for for a long period of time U it's a mistake not to take Putin at his word right and and we tend to always mirror our values it's like when we were talking about the cab driver how do you get him into a conversation you start to mirror the values right and we do that as a nation sometimes in the us where we imagine that people are going to react the same way or think the same way about Freedom or democracy what and and it's not how the world works so

I just going back here to to the incursion into um into Russia that the Ukrainian military did so they they've hold they're holding territory up there maybe it depends on who you talk to maybe um 500 square miles it's it varies but they've stretched their resources relatively thin and that's a problem because it all goes back to War as long as we've known war which is supply lines right if you if you can't maintain your supply lines you you've you know lost the plot and so what we're seeing right now is Putin has amassed about

40,000 Russian troops and about 10,000 North Korean troops and that's another that's another story so North North Korea because Kim Jong-un of North Korea is best buddies now with Putin he has sent upwards of 12,000 troops to Russia and they are now on the front lines essentially they're already in combat but they're an important part of of of Putin's effort and I I think what he's trying to do Trump has won takes us back to our original point of okay what's Trump going to do and what's this going to look like after the uh inauguration

Trump's one I think there's a calculation here Putin could be saying I've got to do everything now I've got to throw everything I can to gain that Russian territory back before sitting down at a negotiating table and coming up with a deal I don't want to sit at the negotiating table if zinski and NATO are saying we have part of your Russian territory you want it back well we're going to need we're going to need this back we're going to need eastern Ukraine back or we're going to need Crimea back I don't think he's ever

given back Crimea right but it's likely I think if you have to make these decisions and without real insight into his mindset um it's it's true it's all speculation but I I wouldn't be surprised if what he's calculated right now is I got to throw all these troops to re gain this Russian territory the ukrainians surprised Us by taking ahead of sitting down and doing a negotiated settlement which again is going to be very unsatisfying to all those people who put Ukrainian flags on their porch and oh they're going to get all their territory back

no they're not they don't have the ability to do that and and I hope that what we don't see is if Trump well when Trump comes into office um I think he and the people that he will have around him working on this issue will be sufficiently convinced that they have to maintain a level of support that allows Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table from at least a position of relative strength right um otherwise they're just sitting and they're asking you know for whatever they can get in this deal and that's not that's

never going to sell zelinsky's got to sell this to the the Ukrainian population this is an incredible moment in time right this is this is an invading this is this is an invading force from Russia into another country an independent country um and there's there there's so much complexity it's hard to explain and you know without saying okay we're going to take the next five or six days to talk about it but it's an incredible moment in time and so yes it matters a great deal about you know is this consequential it's consequential if worst

case scenario um the next Administration says that's it we're cutting off all assist and all Aid well the rest of NATO will definitely stay in the game right because they view it differently because they're right here but us support is critical and it's critical to get a settlement and if what you want is to end War to stop the the the killing um and if you're pragmatic you have to you have to assume this is going to be a settlement that means that Russia's going to keep maybe not all of this maybe they'll keep this

much and this will be maybe a demilitarized zone right uh patrolled by un peacekeepers or whatever to act as a buffer but then you have other issues is Putin going to say no part of this deal has got to be that Ukraine never joins NATO that's I'm sure that's going to be a part of his deal um and then how NATO deals with that I have no idea because you know they've already made sort of a guarantee okay you're going to be in at some point anyway that's uh how do you think it end if

you had to be if you had to bet I think uh look part of the reason why um part of the reason why the the North Korean troops have ended up in in in Russia which is again is an astounding thing um is because Putin desperately doesn't want to do another conscription he knows that's vastly unpopular with his with his folks which is when you ask your you basically people round up more people right I'm I'm going to need I'm going to need another 50,000 soldiers because he runs what's essentially called a meat grinder operation

he just throws people in the front right as Canon F I mean the the Russian casualty rate has been ridiculous right compared to um the the ukrainians but they've been willing to sacrifice um all those people so I think the the the idea being look Kim Jong-un he's making money off of this deal sending troops up there he's getting the troops that survive anyway will get combat experience and he doesn't have a military with any combat experience right now and he's also getting weapons technology transfer from Russia so he's getting part of a deal here

what's Putin getting I think Putin's just getting bodies he can throw out there ahead of the next wave which will be Russian troops right so I think I think those 10,000 North Koreans uh soldiers are [ __ ] there's been a a rising sentiment in the United States that we should stop sending money to Ukraine and why are we bothering and this isn't our problem etc etc MH what do you say to those people because that sentiment is rising and it's rising from my opinion it's rising on the right side of politics I hear it

more and more on some of the big podcasts I hear it more and more on um X and Twitter and again it's only because I I researched what happened in Nazi Germany in World War II that I suddenly go this is much more complicated than you think and you can embolden someone if you don't resist their them invading a local country yeah and why put one right well look I mean this and and the thing is the world the world is shrinking right the world is and has been and continues to shrink nothing happens in

a bubble so what's happening right here is being watched by uh you know xiin ping in China right in terms of Taiwan I mean he's sitting there saying okay here's Taiwan there's a straight of Taiwan it's no distance whatsoever he's just conducted xiin ping and the Chinese regime has just conducted the large lest military exercise around Taiwan ever basically blocking it off blocking the ports and uh you know patrolling the airs Airway uh Airway so the idea being he just wanted to show that he could do that right and so he's watching what's happening over

here in terms of the US response and NATO response and and say okay at what point does it make sense for me to do this because at the end of the day xiin ping is tied to his desired Legacy which is the reunification and and in his mind this belongs right here and so so let's we'll move on to China then um question was how do you think it ends if you're a betting man how do you think the Ukrainian war ends I think in this coming year I think in part I know I've talked

a lot about what the ukrainians are suffering from but there's there are reasons why Putin is going to need to uh figure this out as well I think part of it is his economy is is is suffering um and so I think it finishes with a negotiated settlement at some point during 20 25 and I think that means uh the lines are going to look again I keep using the word unsatisfactory but that's the way it's going to feel to a lot of people uh the lines are going to look a lot like they did

before The Invasion uh maybe a some additional territory being held by the Russians and then I do think that there will be some agreement to have a buffer zone uh that will be essentially under the opes of un peacekeeping troops somehow um you know no fly zone whatever you want to call it as well I think that's how it's going to end up I think K that region in in in uh in Russia goes back to the Russians I think that problem's going to be I think in the short order um I think they're going

to want to move quickly right before we get into the teeth of winter um I think that's going to be a mess so that's going to be a major when they start that offensive and we're talking again potentially 50,000 troops thrown at uh a relatively Thin Line um I think that territory goes back to Russia in the next month I would I would suspect yeah I mean basically you don't you don't put troops there you know with all those resources without intending to to use them um and I think the longer those North Korean troops

sit there the more trouble they will have in terms of command and control so they're going to want to get them into the uh into into the cannon uh as quickly as possible so you mentioned China China feel like Taiwan is there Taiwan is this little island off the coast of China I hear about this um this plan that they say China has which is the 2049 plan what is China's 2049 plan well part of that was based around a timeline um for uh how we want to refer to it the reunification the absorption of

Taiwan the taking over of Taiwan nobody really knows what that will look like because there's a a concern um you know is it going to be a completely kinetic is it going to be a military operation uh is it going to be more of a soft takeover uh sort of like U you know there's it's a good example right here Hong Kong um you remember there used to be democracy in Hong Kong and now there's not um and that happened over a period of time but they basically just squashed all remnants of democracy particularly during

the pandemic so what's it going to look like when they do take over Taiwan that's that's the big question but the timeline has shrunk so they now there's some feeling that the movement on Taiwan will be during the course of XI jinping's tenure right so what are you looking at well that depends on his grip on power which seems very solid um it seems like it depends on his health which you know again I be speculating but so I don't see him riding off into the sunset willingly without finishing that project that in his mind

is so important um he's Consolidated power in in China like nobody since Den jaia ping or or Mali dong you know so I think um I think he's serious again take take certain leaders at their word some you know some Bluster a lot some some make very big pronouncements Donald Trump would be one of them who tends to just speak off the cuff and throw things out I think the danger sometimes is is the the Dem democrats for example take him at his word right for everything he says right they take everything he says literally

um but there are other leaders um Putin shiing ping I think you need to pay real close attention to exactly what they're saying so I think when he talks about the you know absorbing Taiwan and and making it part of the motherland again I he's not kidding around why does he want Taiwan it looks like such an insignificant part of that part of the map it's so small in comparison to to China it's a good point when you look at the map you go really need to bother um you know what it's part of it

is is is the history right and you know ever since the the you know the Chen Kai Sheek and you know the separatist and escaping to Taiwan and raising it as a separate nation it's just it's it's hard to explain but it's a very emotive subject right why does the US care so much about Taiwan um that's a better question too um okay part of that is part of that is uh I don't want to say emotional but it's the idea of look there Democratic institutions um it's an ally you know how could we possibly

Stand By and Watch a Communist Regime you know step on it and and and destroy it part of it is um practical it's like you know it's it's an important chip manufacturing center so you know there's a couple elements to it um honestly look if if if all the chip manufacturing on Taiwan was reshored over to California somewhere um would we care quite as much well we would still care on that sort of emotional values-based uh side we could probably we could probably Overlook it in a long run now are we going to send boots

on the ground over to defend Taiwan if there if there's a military action uh um you know going back to your betting person I would bet no no matter who's in office but they will say they're going to defend Taiwan everyone all of the like the US presidents are always asked would you defend Taiwan if Russia invaded and you'll probably know some of the quotes better than I do but they've all said that they would yeah yeah the only slip up at one point was uh uh Biden where he I don't think he really meant

to say what he said which was you know sort of ambiguous towards the the defense of Taiwan but then he corrected it um so do I honestly think that we would send uh troops over no no I don't um do I think that we would do what we're doing with Ukraine sure yeah would we provide resources but this is a much different uh situation right um and so I think while I get uh the concept uh I just don't know that there's be follow through because that is a very tough cell to explain why we're

sending troops over to face down the Chinese military which is about a Stones throw away from Taiwan and look this is going to be an interesting situation right because the folks over here the folks in China they don't view the folks in Taiwan as Taiwanese they view them as Chinese right so are you going to have you know Chinese military shooting Chinese I don't know maybe it's going to be a softer takeover maybe there's going to there's more influence there's a massive disinformation campaigns that go on on Taiwan courtesy of the Chinese regime there's all

sorts of efforts there to to undermine uh Taiwanese leadership but it this is again the point being is this is a crisis look this is already this is a mess and has been and it's underway and it's in Ukraine situation but over here this is looming right as a major issue and and if you think about the there other activities this is is what's referred to as a South China Sea right which is below Taiwan it is yes and it's it's um this is the Philippines here uh Vietnam over here China has always viewed this

as their territory right this this is their backyard well ever since World War II the US is essentially patrolled and and maintained Security in the South China Sea right in the interest of international free trade and you know freedom of movement um there are increasing numbers of encounters between the the Chinese Navy and the Philippines uh Vietnamese over um this this sea because again they view this as theirs they're constantly in here pushing they're building uh uh artificial Islands there for ports um there's there's a major flash point here right for for potential conflict and

China I've talked to number of experts that I really value and their take is and I think it's not incorrect is that China is basically on a war footing with the West already right we just don't see it or we don't feel it or we don't want to acknowledge it and I don't mean like they're going to launch missiles but in their minds they're at war with the US already and they're they're acting in a sense as if that's the case and we act as if well they're just an economic competitor but it would be

nice if we could all get along um so I think we may be misreading the the tea leaves who's the the real enemy of the West in your opinion who who would you if you were the president of the United States who would you be most concerned about well this is this is our biggest this is our biggest concern right China China is the is I think is the Topline concern because of their their abilities their resources um and you know again the sort of the increasing aggressiveness in this region um their desire to uh

reshape the the global structure right they don't want the West to be in charge they you know they view this as you know how do we realign this so that we get what you know the bricks and and uh uh a different realignment of of world order so that the US and its allies are not at the top of the food chain so in a sense that doesn't mean that I think that we're going to be in a in a in a shooting match with China anytime soon I don't actually believe that's going to be

the case but that's where we have to focus a lot of our concerns when you talk about identifying and resolving and you know prioritizing threats um in the short term um right here is Iran and look the Iranian regime has been engaged in uh assassination plots to try to kill uh now the president elect uh as well as several other uh us officials whom they uh believe were responsible for the targeting back in 2020 of KM solomani who ran the kuds force and was a very close Ally of the supreme leader Kaman in Iran you

think Iran have tried to kill Trump oh they have definitely yeah there's no doubt that that they've been engaged in they have a hit list and they've actually been engaged in trying to get uh plots underway um to uh you know to uh Target not just him but Mike Pompeo uh Mark Millie former head of the or chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark eser former Secretary of Defense Brian hook uh and others so but I guess you know from a setting that aside setting aside the bizarreness of this state with a hit list

of US officials right and that's just saying that out loud should make people think well that is bizarre but what they've done in terms of uh establishing and building over the years this this network of of proxies thetis Islamic jihadah Kamas um Iran has stated numerous times they've been very clear about it their desire their objective is to wipe Israel from the face of the the Earth so they've set up their proxies with the same objective and the idea being okay we'll let the proxies do the dirty work we're not going to take accountability we're

not going to be in the direct line of fire now that's happened a couple of times right there's been this direct you know back and forth between Iran and Israel um so this is a this is a very serious problem that will not be resolved as long as the Iranian regime and the Revolutionary guard Corps the irgc maintain their belief system that Israel needs to be wiped off the face of the Earth as long as they believe that they will continue to be the primary cause of instability um in uh the Middle East so we

talk talk about getting ceasefires in Gaza talk about ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon not that there's much left of the hesah leadership but that's just putting lipstick on a pig right because you're not solving the problem and you know I don't know that you change the belief structure of the Iranian regime and the irgc so in that case what do you hope for what you hope for internally that there will be at some point the population would just say we've had enough right I mean there have been how many cases do we need where you

know women go out on the streets to protest right the new morality laws and they disappear right they're just they're it it's brutal yeah you don't hear any of that you don't hear people you know you don't hear activists in the States going on college campuses and protesting the treatment of of women in in Iran no it's always you know God my god look what Israel is doing those protests in Iran do the United States fuel those protests do they cause disinformation in that country to try and stabiliz it to try and get a coup

so that they can throw out the leadership is that how the world Works um you know what it I'm going to what I'm going to say I think a lot of people who would look at my background and go well of course that son of a [ __ ] is going to say that this is what I would say is that what happens um is okay let me put it this way year in years pasted yeah that's what would have happened we would have tried to say okay how do we get that that Uprising how

do we get that but now it's more how do we get information into those people and then if there is a protest that develops how do we support it what do you do to support that uh that I would argue has you know not worked um the green movement and and few other un you know unsuccessful attempts by people to kind of get out on the streets and protest have been brutally put down and and the US and the UN and others for the most part you know they're going to protest and write a nasty

memo but none of it helps right how do you get information to the people in a country like that you know they have they have access to some degree most of it's locked down I guess but but they have access to some degree so you try to you try to push information out look Voice of America is is probably the best example over the years vaa was for years its whole purpose was how do we get information about what happens in the world um into Russia into the Soviet Union and nowadays you know you could

argue you've got more possibilities because of Technology U that's outside my scope and we start talking about how do you you know aside from dropping leaflets um which which bizarrely enough in South Korea and North Korea they still do South Korea drops leaflets using balloons over North Korean territory to convince people that Kim Jong on is bad and that life could be better um but yeah I the the worst part is with Iran is you just look these people are under the thumb of the mulles in the irgc and they are brutal right it's like

it's like Hamas Hamas has ruled Gaza with an Iron Fist and they've been brutal against anyone that they disagree with lgbtq activists women name them and and yet you know you never see protests outside the country about Hamas you know how they beat um you know uh a gay activist it doesn't happen right the C campus protests are all about Israel Israel is surrounded by a ring of of proxies built by Iran that wants to destroy them so yes they're going to think differently than we do what happened in Israel on that day where I

mean people rushed into the their country and thousands of people died yeah as of that yeah their estimate was 12200 and then uh 250 were dragged off into uh into Gaza I just don't know how that that's possible when that that state is so unbelievably paranoid about invasions and attacks and they have the the Iron Dome how does that happen how do and yeah it that was a um it was a long-term uh project that was very well orchestrated by Hamas uh with Iran the rgc was fully aware of what was going on the rgc

provided some of the training to some of the Kamas Fighters that eventually ended up in inside Southern Israel um so probably the best way to put it would be they lulled the Israeli government to sleep and the the military to sleep they made them believe that they really weren't interested in violence anymore and what that did and and that what they really wanted was okay we just want to like try to build up our economy right and and try to make a better life well that was horseshit on hamas's part that's what the Palestinians would

like but that was horeshit on hamas's part um what they were doing was lulling them to sleep in that then they kind of took their eye off the ball the Israeli government in particular started looking more inward you know you had a lot of internal political battles going on um and they were doing that because they viewed that they didn't have the same existential threat on their doorstep that they had been dealing with right they they sort of took the bait and it was an intelligence failure there's no doubt about it in part because the

uh the people running that operation dumbed down their Communications right they deliberately stopped using Communications that they felt could be compromised or had been compromised and we we've seen that over the years um Al-Qaeda is a good example once Al-Qaeda understood uh the extent to which we could intercept their Communications you know they went back to the old days right handing handwritten notes right this is my cousin I want you to take it to that person over there who's his cousin only give him that note right don't talk to anybody very hard to intercept right

very and so you you no it's very hard to conduct your operations it takes a lot more time um but that's the extent to which they went to try to get this thing done and uh yeah unfortunately they were very successful how are you thinking about the world's perception specifically the United States perception of what's going on in Israel and Palestine you know we talked about how support seems to be waning for providing support to Ukraine is support waning do you believe for Israel and the plight of Israel because there's been a lot of information

around the amount of innocent people that have been killed in Palestine yeah I would be more concerned about um Ukrainian support and I would be losing um the level of Israeli support why because I think um it's a little bit of a different Dynamic right there's Israel has always kind of had this this interesting place within us psyche I guess and um and it's also look there's a massive Jewish American Community right I mean there's no doubt about that so there's there's a level of support there that that Ukraine doesn't have um and and also

just the length of support look we've been we've been close allies of Israel for Generations right ever since it it started uh you can't say the same thing about Ukraine so I guess I'm hopeful that moving into the next Administration and I know people say oh my God you know you sounds like you're a warmonger well no again I go back to with Ukraine if you want peace peace if that's what you want if you don't want the conflict then my argument is they've got to be able to sit down at a negotiating table if

Putin feels like he's winning right if he feels like the US is backing off he's not going to negotiate he's just going to move forward he doesn't he doesn't give a [ __ ] about his soldiers he just keeps throwing them into the front lines right so if you want peace here then you need to continue support sufficiently to get them to the table and I do think we're we're we're close because again I don't you know Russia yes they're making Headway here but a longterm you know meaning another two or three years I don't

think I don't think Putin can sustain that with the Russian population so how does Israel palestine's war end unfortunately I I again being a cynic um I think it ends the way a lot of these have ended which means we're just putting a Band-Aid on a sucking chest wound and they'll come up with a ceasefire um I think Kamas they'll figure out a way to bring in the Palestinian Authority to govern Hamas or sorry Gaza um I think uh I think sort of the Lynch pin there is if they can get a ceasefire with uh

with Gaza with Hamas that will make it infinitely easier for the hooes to say okay we'll back off we're not going to keep screwing up the Red Sea firing missiles at International Trade and us and Allied naval ships and I think think that it also allows for Hezbollah look I think the Israelis look at Hezbollah leadership now I think we've pretty much taken everybody out um and there's more of a structure in in Lebanon I think it's it's always been problematic but I think the Lebanese government could um you know could deal with the problem

if there is a an official ceasefire with hezb so I think it all comes down to um and I guess what I mean by the bandaid on a second chest wound is that's all well and good we'll stop the conflicts right I think those will stop relatively soon um I don't think Iran is interested in getting into a bigger shooting match with Israel because I I think they understand there's no way they do that without the US entering the US has already got you know carriers forward deployed out here a big show of force right

we moved B52 fortresses out there nuclear capable not that that we would drop nukes but it's a show of force that I think Iran understands and the mullers the mullers the irgc in particular which has its fingers in every part of the Iranian economy and has made itself wealthy much like the Hamas leadership made themselves Wealthy by stealing billions that leadership in Iran it's very similar to Putin in a sense and very similar over here to xiin Ping the one thing they want more than anything else is to retain control so the Iranian regime is

going to look at this and go can we really afford to get into a shooting match with the US and Israel and the answer is no they can't win that so I think they're not inclined to to do this so we're going to get these ceasefires and then we're just kicking the can down the road but if they get nuclear weapons then they can hold their weight absolutely absolutely yeah and that will that will completely change the the calculus in terms of how do we deal with them and the negoti so and again this going

to make me sound like a warmonger but that last um that last um retaliatory strike by Israel into Iran they focused on Missile production facilities and air defense systems now that's smart in that destroying a significant portion of their missile production capabilities impacts their ability to both attack directly Israel but also then to provide those missiles to their proxies the air defense You could argue is setting the table right if they decide that that breakout window for the Iranian regime to get a nuke is tightening uh to a point where it's not really acceptable and

if you've if you've basically destroyed their defense systems and they somewhat naked in that regard then you're talking about you know dropping and trying to disrupt their their weapons capability the most of that is significantly underground how do we know they don't have a nuclear weapon I don't think they could have kept their Yap shut they would have told us because for what you're saying which is okay now what right um I don't think that I don't think they could have kept that secret plus also we rely on our liaison Partners so the Israeli intelligence

Jordanian intelligence Saudi intelligence we rely on a sort of a input from a lot of the players look the the Saudis the jordanians and others would they be upset if the Iranian regime would to change no they would they would like what do they want they want they want stability right because that leads to economic Prosperity that's better for their populations keeps their folks happy um and so you know you know are they going to come right out and say it no but there's a lot of reasons so I think the the the problem with

these ceasefires not again it's it's good you want to end conflict um you don't want people suffering it it would be fantastic if the Palestinians had a much better opportunity for a great life but you don't get there as long as the Iranian regime and and the irgc are saying we want to destroy Israel so we're going to keep pushing at it um that's not really a recipe for long-term stability so that's why I say they're kind of key to this whole problem why is the US so focused on Iran of all these countries not

getting a nuclear weapon the US seem obsessed with making sure Iran of all people don't get a nuclear weapon well because they're the largest state sponsor of terrorism is one issue and um and they've shown it right I mean they they've been perfectly willing to look I mean the the fellow who was killed in 2020 uh who was the head of the goods force cassm solomani uh and it was his targeting that then created the supreme leader desire and the Iranian regime's desire to Target us officials including the president-elect um he had the blood of

thousands of US soldiers on his hands because he was running operations um to develop IEDs uh and get them out in the field uh train up uh Iraqi militias to uh so I again they hate the US they hate the US yeah so I look it's it again going back to that same thing it'd be lovely if we all lived in a community of Nations but when I look at a map like this I don't see a community of Nations I see problems which again maybe makes me just a cynical old bastard problems you recently

said we're in a more sensitive time right now than in recent modern times than we can recall and you were referring here to nuclear weapons people are normalizing the limited use of nukes and that is worrisome we've got Russia doing tactical Nuclear drills on the border alongside Ukraine how can how concerned should we be about nuclear weapons and why should we be so concerned I actually didn't realize until recently when I spoke to Annie Jacobson that the president has the sole responsibility and the sole power to launch a nuclear weapon but they don't have to

speak to anyone to launch a nuclear weapon they don't have to have a meeting don't have to speak to the house or the Senate they Trump could turn around and say launch that nuke yeah so could Biden so could you know Barack Obama so could George Bush or Ronald Reagan or you know let's go back in in in time um look the Russians created um what was referred to as the Dead Hand system right which took people completely out of the decision-making process I mean if you want to talk about something that's that's even more

frightening is let's remove humans from the decision to launch uh the nukes what's the dead it was what it was referred to as it was the idea was during the Cold War um the idea was Kremlin started sitting around thinking a little bit too much and they said well what happens if if there's a first strike and we're taken out meaning the Kremlin meaning they leadership well H okay well we need some system in place an automated system that will respond right um and so they created this system that would luckily obviously never used but

it was referred to as the Dead Hand system it was a it was a non-human um uh decision-making process that would assess the Damage Done in the first uh strike and would then make a decision on its own as to what to do so that's a that's a problem but yes and and that's still there uh no it's not there supposedly they they've you know advised us that it's been disarmed some time ago um but you know again who knows I mean and and again that's another problem with AI and and you know its ability

uh to supplant humans you talk about drones and taking humans out of drone strikes you can't you can't do that either you need to have you need to have that element I think in in any weapon system but yeah Russia talking about and and um you know medev and Dimitri pesov and and some of the other minions for Putin rattling the nuclear saber on on occasion uh doing their tactical drills um you know obviously North Korea who has nuclear weapons here well I mean the members of the nuclear Club um so I've got United States

Russia France China the UK Pakistan Pakistan India uh yep India Israel we don't know I mean that's a very I mean it's a great point we assume but we don't know North Korea because they've never yeah North Korea yeah North Korea have got nuclear weapons well uh they don't have a delivery system so they don't have a missile that can fire right right and are they completely there is is up for grabs so that program isn't quite as well understood uh the Iranian program is is a heavy lift in terms of specific intelligence the breakout

window is often discussed but it's anywhere from oh it's a couple of weeks to it's months you know so that tells you because of the Gap and that and the parameters there that tells you that maybe the intelligence isn't as good as it should be just to give a context on how powerful these weapons are there was a stat I read that said the Warhead on one US nuclear armed submarine Marine has seven times the destructive power of all the bombs dropped during World War II including two atomic bombs combined and the US has 10

of those submarines MH yeah where are we closer now to nuclear war than we've ever been in the last century no um I think we were closer in the in the height of the Cold War I think um there it really was I mean it was are you know top of Mind people literally thought we were going to get into a a a shooting match with the Soviet Union and I think we were close on on occasion so I wouldn't argue that we're it's more prevalent right and and by that I mean there's more of

them um than there were at that point there's more members of the nuclear Club um but I that was at a point in time when I think we were much closer because also in part we there wasn't the understanding the level of communication that exists there look there's still a lot of you know there's there's even when it seems like two nations are at odds you know I think sometimes people don't understand how much communication still exists off the radar between militaries between Intel organizations um people understand that the the risk but I my point

is when you talk about it a lot when you when you threaten it you're you're normalizing it and I think that that could lead us down a very bad path um and then if if the Iranian regime were to get nuclear weapons um are they are they on the logic train you know or do they view this as something that they they use as leverage to exert uh to get uh concessions from Israel whatever those might be I I don't know I think there there would be an unknown player in that realm and I think

that causes some of this concern also as to why it's felt they shouldn't have it and also if they announce they announce that they have a nuclear weapon then you can count on the Saudis saying to themselves me too right I'm I'm going to get them so I'm not going to look the it's not as if the Saudis and the Iranians are are you know close friends there becomes a Tipping Point here doesn't there where you know Iran gets their nuclear weapons Saudi want a nuclear weapon and then you know most of the countries in

this region and other parts of the world think well we need one now we need one and the Israelis maybe that's the moment when they come out and say and confirm whether they do or don't and they're not going to confirm that they don't um yeah so I think it there there's some real problems there look it's it's bad that anybody has them obviously everybody wants peace but you have to deal with the world you got not the one you hope for it's interesting when I think about the biggest risk to the world and I

think about all the potential things that could happen we could have a solar flare there could be I don't know whatever could happen there's a meteor of death too a meteor for that yeah global warming could do it the thing that seems to be so obvious to me is if you get more and more nuclear weapons and you've got more and more of these sometimes crazy egotistical leaders who are aging and they're trying to hang on to their power and then you throw in AI which is a kind of sentient being that can think for

itself for me I go I don't know in the next hundred years there's got to be an incident there's got to be an incident because like probabilistically this many weapons this many crazy leaders this much disruption to technology you know people not wanting to let go of their power something's going to go wrong it might be a mistake or something but all it takes is one missile to fly or one person to think that a missile's flying right or you get one Broken Arrow uh you get one um one missing nuke right gets in the

wrong hands how about the story I think was it in Hawaii when Hawaii's missile detection system went off one day and they thought that they were about to be hit by a yeah exactly think about what those people went through and it wasn't like a minute or two I I think it I forget what the the length of time was before they got the all clear 30 minutes I think roughly yeah I mean where everyone in Hawaii thought that a missile was about to them and I heard the stories of people trying to decide which

kid to go to and hiding in cupboards and going out on the beach and praying and and uh just so everyone knows hiding in a Cupboard is not going to be and that was just because one person in a office somewhere clicked the wrong button yeah and that sent that nation into Panic so you can imagine in Iran someone accidentally clicking the wrong button or or deliberately clicking the wrong button or or whatever I just think it's you get um look there's always this concern concern right I mean Russia has moved you know some of

its Arsenal to bellarus well you know okay what happens if you know one of those goes missing or what happens if if a non-state actor uh organization gets a hold of one of Pakistan so there's a complete Fallout in the Pakistan government and suddenly you've got a very hostile government that you know has control so yeah it's it's it's an issue uh you have to ask yourself sometimes why would you want to be a world leader what is your biggest concern as it relates to the map but also technology and the future that we're heading

towards what's your biggest concern I don't know that that's a that's a really interesting question and I know I should have like a a pat answer right off the top of my head um I tend to I tend to look at at uh the next big global conflict so I'm not so much I again don't get me wrong these are bad right these potential flareups these problems this conflict here in the Middle East these are all bad people are suffering but I think about the next actual global conflict and when that occurs right just like

another pandemic's going to happen right it's it's not like we're not going to get another pandemic um when the next big global conflict occurs I think what we're going to find is that the pain has brought to the Homeland a lot quicker right so what I mean by that is uh say you're in the US well we know that Nations that don't necessarily have us interests at heart China let's let's let's focus on China because they are you know close to the top of the Heap and they're motivated to get to the top um not

again not saying it's going to be a shooting match but the point being is every day uh the critical infrastructure critical systems in the US are being tested and poked and prodded and looked at and mapped out and there's a reason why that happens right so they're developing A playbook that says in the event that it should happen and we have a global conflict we are going to shut down everything we can shut down in the US suddenly all power goes off your water treatment facilities aren't working you can't move fuel around you can't get

fuel Pharmaceuticals aren't being delivered no food is being delivered can't get cash out whether you want cash or not at that point um the idea being is we're going to bring the pain to the Homeland right immediately that's what you want to do and will there be a a Connecticut element will you actually have a shooting match with you know troops on around yeah I'm not sure that ever goes away but the next global conflict is going to be fought in a way that that we have a hard time understanding and then it'll be up

in space as well they've you know the Chinese have spent a great deal of effort on uh directed energy weapons and one of the points of that is essentially to knock out Satellite Systems right you think about you take away take away satellite structures you know whether it's starlink or or any of the satellite systems up there you shut down GPS right people can't move you shut down the internet my God people are losing Lo their minds right um can't do Tick Tock and uh so it's you know not to make light of it because

we're talking about a different type of warfare and so that's kind of the thing that I worry about if you if you said what are people really worry about well yeah top concerns always you know China and Russia and Iran but it's the infrastructure and it's a way that it's going to be brought to the Homeland that's going to create I think a level of pain that most people aren't going to be willing to put up with for very long when you say they're going to bring pain to the Homeland were you saying the US

were going to shut down their infrastructure no I'm I'm saying that whoever again I'm just as a u it could be any you know it could be the EU in a conflict it could be the US and nato in a conflict with another but the point being is that you know they don't they don't map out infrastructure for for no reason at all who's mapping the infrastructure uh well Russia China okay there might be our infrastructure our infrastructure we're doing the same thing people always say they say well you're doing the same well you better

hope that whether it's the UK or whether it's Australia whether it's us that you hope that we're engaged in the same activities because that's where this is is is going to end up going um having said that you know if someone had said we're going to be engaged in a massive land War World War I Style with with trenches and very little ground gain and and lots of bombardment over people would said nah that's never going to happen again but that's happening in Ukraine right now it's happening in Ukraine you can go you know the

Imperial War Museum in London which is a wonderful Museum they've got a World War I exhibit and you go through the World War I exhibit and you you you look at it and you realize the same thing is taking place you look at the aerial photographs of the front line and you see the trench lines here in in in Ukraine it's it's stunning and we're just making the same mistakes over again it's funny how history has a strange way of repeating itself yeah because we don't we like to think that we learn but we're dealing

with the same old humans with the same old emotions and Egos and ideologies and stuff over and over again so it's because humans haven't changed you're right you're absolutely yeah that's right how are how are you preparing on a personal level if if you're seeing that some of these a lot of guns and ammo really no I'm kidding well no I'm not kidding but that's not how I'm preparing I just like to you know load up because you're saying you don't believe Americans and you know westerners really understand how the next big global conflict will

look yeah so is there a way they can prepare for such a conflict well well on one level uh you know people need to read as much as they can and and pay attention right I mean get as many different sources of information don't just read one outlet that you happen to agree with um but you know try to be as informed as possible um which uh you know I think sometimes it's difficult to do because we're all busy right we're all putting food on the table and trying to take care of families and whatever

but um so I think there's there's an element of of folks just trying to be informed and then you know that would be look I mean the pandemic that occurred the covid-19 thing if if people were really really watching what was going on you know October 2019 right there was you there's this weird situation going on in China a couple of cities were were quarantined and that started to Bubble Up and and people were paying attention to it I I was getting notifications about you know what the hell's going on in China um well before

there was any Declaration of a problem right and so and and and the Wuhan lab was mentioned repeatedly um so I think just being informed is one of the best things that people can do and then you know I'm not a prepper um but it's always good just to you know be prepared for a natural crisis right power goes out because there's a blackout fine you know there's a you know whatever the reason may be um just just be a little aware of and have a plan of some sort that says if there is a

natural disaster not saying a shooting match then what do I do what's my C plan I got kids at school how do I reach them we're so unprepared because in our lifetimes we've never had a war so we I grew up I'm about 32 years old now I assume Wars happen in other places they don't happen in the UK or in LA or New York they happen over there so I'm comfortable and I'm complacent to some degree MH like I could never imagine even a adversarial plane flying over my city yeah there's a there's a

level of uh We've we've all gotten we've all gotten I don't want to say soft necessarily but look every generation wants it to be easier right my parents uh were older when they had me they they were born in 1919 and 1920 right and they went through the um you know the tough times Economic Times They went through you know a couple of wars um they wanted it better for their kids right now you know their parents my grandparents wanted it better for them right and so on and so you that's human nature you want

to be doing the best for your kids you want it to be better for that generation I think eventually you reach uh diminishing returns right and I do worry that that's kind of where we're at I you know I look at my own kids and look nobody's out there you know in in in here or over here or whatever there's there's certainly places in the world where that's not true but you know the these areas here that we're talking about we're not out worrying about whether we can collect enough food and clean water necessarily you

know we're worried about um you is my Wi-Fi signal strong enough but it's interesting when you were talking about Israel earlier you said how Israel had got a bit comfortable so they started infighting right and what you're seeing over in the United States and other parts of Europe is infighting it's like we've got nothing better to do so we're arguing over identity politics and are getting more woke and it's more divided because I don't know it's like we have nothing better to do right and also that's being fueled look they you never want to underestimate

the impact of the disinformation campaigns run by I mean again I keep going I sound like I'm just constantly throwing out the same bogey man but look it's that's the way the world is China Russia in particular Iran has proven itself to be very Adept at this at disinformation campaigns that prey on whether it's in in the EU or whether it's in the US or elsewhere that prey on what they view as vulnerabilities so it goes back to what we were talking about before about recruiting an asset right or identifying weaknesses and leverage well they

look at the US and they go you know what if we if we kind of just keep poking at that racist issue we keep you know poking it at woke issues right I mean that's very divisive and it's and it does right it works so the next thing you know they're they're putting together a a a bot they're throwing out some misinformation or disinformation on on X someone looks at that and goes yeah that's that's right then they just forward it on to their friends and their family and it just keeps building so the the

the those campaigns have a a real significant impact on on on the west because we're not inclined for whatever reason we're not curious enough or we don't have enough time or whatever to look at a piece of information and go is this even credible what you say to people that think that's just completely impossible it's a conspiracy theory there's no way China and Russia are involved in misinformation there's no way they're trying to tear us apart yeah uh you know what all they need to do is is a little uh fact-based research spend a little

time they don't have to look at one side or another look across the board at at at a variety of of uh uh think tanks and research institutes that that focus on this sort of thing and no there's look there's there is no doubt there is a a a concerted effort to influence whether it's an election and and they're not trying necessarily to get anybody to win they're just trying to undermine the the the the concept of democracy they want to create some chaos that that's from their perspective that's a win so do you know

Russia wanted Trump to win that's a good question I don't know if they did I think they've made a mistake or they've calculated wrong here because I know there's sort of a Trope out there that says well he's Putin's puppet well we also have to remember that was a very large disinformation campaign or misinformation campaign you know I don't want to make it sound more nefarious but people swallowed that Hook Line and Sinker and then ran with it right over this idea that uh oh my God look at the dossier so I think um I

you know there's there's sort of this narrative that says okay well yeah Putin definitely wanted Trump to win because Trump's going to completely get out of Ukraine I don't think that's going to happen um and you know there's already been reporting that he had a call with uh with Putin already now the Kremlin saying oh that call never happened but according to Western reporting he had a call and he said you are not to to uh intensify this War uh and then basically setting down a marker now again we won't know until we know until

you know he gets out there and he starts you know putting more people in place I'm very curious to see who he puts in in at the Pentagon at sorry at the defense department but um because if I was Putin I know Trump has ran his whole campaign saying he's gonna end this war and if I'm Putin I go that means that I don't have to throw more men at the front line I can get my economy back Putin also wants to end this war but Trump if Trump doesn't end that war in the next

four years the Democrats are going to get in because they're going to say you said you were going to end the war with out there fighting you said you're going to end this but think about it if he does end the war then they're going to say well yeah that's because you know you and Putin like each other and and yeah and you gave away you know some Ukrainian territory well the reality is look Putin he he annexed crimeia during Obama's administration he invaded during Biden's Administration he knew what he had he knew what the

response was going to be now now look people say well you know Biden you know to his credit you know he kind of rallied and he pushed for more support and yes that's absolutely true but Putin engaged in this during his time right because I think he knew or he felt he knew maybe that's more important he felt he knew what he was going to get now he wasn't anticipating that NATO response was going to be his Hardline and that's a good thing I'm glad that Biden has done that Biden has also withheld authorization to

use long range Munitions to Target Russian military sites that are being used to Target Target Ukraine right now you could argue that until Putin feels some pain or Ukraine is in a better offensive position of some sort that you can't get people to the negotiating table and again if you want to end the conflict you're probably going to want to do that uh unless you just want Putin to overrun Ukraine if you want to if you want that to happen then stop support and that's what's going to happen but I think you know the the

the narrative I think is a little bit off I'm not because yeah you're right if if the war continues right I'm not sure the Democrats have as much you know to to play off of but I think if if the war is ended then I think what they'll say is H you gave it away acting as if somehow Ukraine could have won and gained all their territory back which is unrealistic I think it's more more compelling to say we stopped all the wars and I think for Americans right now I think they want to look

we saved your money we stopped sending billions there we stopped the war people aren't dying anymore I think that's much more compelling narrative then I don't think Americans care as as much this is a guess about giving away a little piece yeah okay I yeah I was I you're right I that was my mistake I think you're you're right in the sense that um if the war is still ongoing yeah the Dems have the Democrats you lied you said you shut it down in day one yeah no I see what you're saying from an electoral

perspective down the road uh four years from now wow 2028 so if I'm Putin I'm going I know Trump he's got he's incentivized to stop this thing and you know I can so that that puts me in a stronger position because if Trump doesn't stop it then maybe Eric Trump's not going to get in next year or whoever or JD Vance is yeah I mean I think Putin also I think is smart enough to to realize to remember that um it was the Trump Administration that authorized lethal Aid to Ukraine to begin with uh the

back during Obama Biden years they did not authorize lethal Aid into Ukraine and despite um despite uh apparently crime annexation was going to be a red line and it wasn't there's no safe like a Simply Safe the sponsor of today episode and who this next story is brought to you by there's something I never told you guys that happened a couple of years ago right here in the Dio Studio you might remember that when I said we'd lost the audio files for Mel's episode who was a former Spice Girl I didn't say how or why

we'd lost the audio files well the reason we lost the audio file was because someone broke into our studio at night time and stole all of our cameras and a few of our key hard drives which contained those audio files it was a shocking day and it led us on a quest to figure out how to secure our building and that's when I discovered Simply Safe who are now a sponsor of this podcast interestingly we did have security at the time but the type that we had only triggered an alarm once Intruders were inside the

building what I like about Simply Safe is their active guard outdoor protection which notifies you and their live monitoring agents when suspicious activity is detected outside of your building especially if it's an unfamiliar face and most security providers don't have the type of AI technology it also means that guards can trigger alarm systems or turn on spotlights which deter Intruders from entering your property in the first place if we'd had Simply Safe installed at the time it likely means that we would have known earlier that Intruders were trying to get into our building at 3:

in the morning and we could have acted to secure the building straight away so this is your reminder to make sure your home and workplace is secure Simply Safe as offering my listeners in the United States an exclusive discount of 60% off your new Simply Safe security system when you sign up for a select professional monitoring plan you'll also get your first month free just visit simply.com diary to customize your plan right now and remember there's no safe like a Simply Safe we mentioned disinformation Tik Tok mhm I mean Tik Tok has ties to China

has Origins to China right do you think Tik Tok is the the interesting thing about Tik Tok so I worked in social media for 10 years is Tik Tok as a platform the algorithm is so unbelievably a addictive um what how would I describe it I guess the word is the algorithm is so powerful and you notice this anyone that uses Tik Tok you'll notice this because if you post something on your page and you have a million followers the post could either get a th000 views or 10 million views and when when I think

about algorithms the variance in views you're getting basically are an expression of how powerful the algorithm is so on Instagram say you have a million followers and you post something the variance between how many views you're going to get is quite low but on Tik Tok it's wide so what the algorithm is doing is it's saying take that and show everyone take this show no one and what this means is that the so this is why it's so addictive to young people because everything they're seeing is really really interesting stuff and they care a lot

less about how many followers you have and it's more about is this really really interesting so as a as a platform it's super addictive it can put you in an echo chamber faster than anything because if I'm looking at videos about I don't know X it's going to keep showing me the most interesting emotional fear Centric videos about that thing no boring yeah you're going to see no boring so do you think there's a chance that Tik Tok is is being used by one of our foreign adversaries to divide us oh sure yeah I think

I think social media is look in the old days if you wanted to influence hearts and Minds if you wanted to change uh uh say you were interested in in uh turning the population in where Kenya you know Nigeria ner um then it was kind of old school stuff right you would how am I going to get um information out there I'm going to I'm going to recruit a bunch of journalists right local journalists and I'm going to get them to publish stories right maybe there's a radio station I'll recruit somebody who can put stories

on the radio technology has given uh the ability to do covert action campaigns um propaganda disinformation whatever you want to call it um you know a real jump start right so the concept is the same I'm trying to influence opinion I'm trying to you know get viewers whatever it is um trying to change hearts and Minds but uh you can do it much faster right and and that's the type of thing the us would have done to their adversaries right the US would literally send a entrepreneur undercover into these countries to start a perfectly legitimate

business with his family they'd find a way to potentially fund it in some way to make sure it was successful and he might be starting a social media app in Russia undercover like that's the type of thing the CIA and other you know maybe m other would do it's um you're looking for ways to I mean you wouldn't necessarily want to say okay I'm going to go into China I'm going to go into Russia and start a a business right because now that's that's problematic from an operational perspective right but you're going to use the

technology for sure to get to as many eyeballs as possible and so yes I mean you know Tik tok's a a great example of that there's a reason why you Chinese citizens can't access Tik Tok inside China right I mean if you think about that is this is Tik Tok you know uh is is it uh is it beneficial to our kids well if it was Tik Tok could probably be available inside China uh but it's not um it's a it's it's a tough one I we deal with that on a personal level all the

time trying to you know figure out how much screen time you know and what the what the kids can access now they're getting older so it's you know you're kind of fighting a losing battle on that one some people think that there's like a back Channel where t um China are harvesting data from the back end of Tik Tok in some way and I you know much like you I'm less likely to believe those kinds of conspiracy theories but one theory that makes logical sense to me is if I was China and I wanted to

sew division in the United States what I would do is make an make an app a social media app that has a really really powerful device of algorithm which really really is strong and I would just make it succeed in the country I don't need the data because what as you said what I'm going to do is I'm going to Pop I would say yes that's that's the that's a a good point and you see that based on what you're saying I don't have anywhere near the level of understanding of of the app world but

but you see that when you you know um just say okay oh I'm interested in that look at that there's a protest over here right next thing you know you're getting you know 40 protest uh videos or whatever um but I would say also they still want data right they they thrive on collecting Mass amounts of information and so um you know I again I I'm don't know that that Tech world uh well enough to to get into a conversation about that but it is it is clear based on their uh economic Espionage and efforts

over the past that they love nothing better than to collect as much information as possible and it doesn't even have to be on a Target that you think know no wonder they're they're targeting Ron or they're targeting a company that makes sense they'll go after anybody really um and it is yeah so I but I I think for the most part when you talk about um social media what I worry about the most is this tendency for people not to question not to be cynical or not to be at least curious and say where's this

come from and if they if if everyone would just do that because there is no other defense at the end of the day you don't want the government telling you what you can see and what you can't see I don't think anyway but there's no there's no other defense in the front line which is the individual with their smartphone looking at something and saying and then stopping for at least a moment to say where's this information coming from is it credible let me check uh elsewhere before I send this on to my family right and

create you know more conflict just just take the time to be quizzical it's difficult because we all have like confirmation bias right so we're we're looking for what we want to believe true and so it's just thinking about that you just see it you saw it in this election cycle if that is what I wanted to believe and what I think is um right then I think that's true and I will share that and you see it in the election cycle as someone who is this sort of outside Observer I'm watching disinformation on both sides

I'm watching them lie about Trump and I'm watching them lie about Kamala on both sides and I'm watching it happen and going oh no that's a lie that's a lie that's a lie that's a lie that's a lie but both sides are enraged and they think they're the the sort of Bastion of truth it's so interesting but the the hard edges are are equally problematic right and the problem we have is you know much much like the conflict in Ukraine on the front lines in the trenches there people are sitting in their trenches throwing hand

grenades at each other and there's nobody living in the middle anymore right and you know it's almost become a a nasty word to say compromise but I don't know how you get meaningful things done you know without the ability to listen to to both sides and say okay well that that idea actually kind of makes sense or that idea doesn't make sense but but at least to work together but nobody is in the center for the most part or if they are they don't make any noise right random idea random thought I just had um

Scott Gallow was on my podcast and he said there's a 33% chance that Trump dies in office based on his age in BMI like statistically he's he's the age he's at and the the BMI he has there's a 33% chance he dies while he's in the next four years I just wonder what that might do to this whole thing because if if Trump drops dead one day in the United States people aren't going to believe that was innocent the destabilizer I just you know the one of the one of the best results that came out

of this election was the size of the result right that was important regardless of who won and you know I had I don't know how many conversations with a variety of people on the you know on both sides of the spectrum of the politics and and they all kind of felt the same way which was okay well whoever wins I just hope it's convincing so that we don't then struggle with this over the next four years um but you're right we what happens in the next four years I've got my own theory of how it

plays out but yeah um I think um Again part of it depends on on how good the Democrat party is at at introspection not very good not very good I don't think so uh but I don't think it's it's still the government right it's still the US government and we have to remember people are you know they're very upset about the idea that oh my God you know maybe the Republicans have all three they have the white they have the Congress they have the Senate um but that's been the case for many going back I

don't know how many administrations but several at least five or six where the president started out with control of both houses and so you know the lesson from that usually is that uh not a lot really gets done it's still a very large machine and so I know people are you know look they they spent people spent a long time saying if Trump wins it's the end of Life as we know it it's the end of democracy oh my my God this is going to be and then you know a day and a half later

President Biden you know comes out and goes you know we're going to be just fine then people are like well what the [ __ ] was all that talk about the end of the world then right it's politics it's a narrative but it's gotten so um hyperbolic there's just like this you have to take it to the far extreme no matter what you're saying right and so then now people have a hard time absorbing that well but you told me to to go out in the street and Rend my clothing and cry and Nash my

teeth and and now you're telling it's going to be okay what you know so I think we're going to be just fine and we would have been just fine if we had the other it's a very resilient Nation it's a despite these things that we've been talking about it's a pretty resilient world right so um I think you know there's not going to be we're not going to see 10 million people deported for instance right I don't I don't think that's going to happen will we have a tougher border policy will there be some deportations

yes will they start with uh folks who are in the country illegally who have committed crimes well yes is that a problem uh I I don't know is anyone upset if someone who's got a criminal convictions and is here illegally is deported you know I guess maybe there's maybe there's some issue there but um you know is so I think we tend to get so over the top on whether we're talking about left or right that the reality is usually there's not the sea change that people anticipate so I think we're going to be okay

that's why I I'm still I'm optimistic that this next Administration will hold the line realizing that holding the line is the best way to get folks to the table to come up with a settlement in Ukraine and Russia in Ukraine and Russia sorry exactly and you know again I'm more cynical about this region just because I think nobody really wants to deal with the Iranian regime and so fine yes we get ceasefires doesn't mean anything in the long term no we'll be dealing with this conflict you know our kids will be dealing with this conflict

um so I'm a little bit more reluctant to to say happy things about that um anyway kids just to close off if you were had to give your children advice on how to be successful based on everything you learned at your time in the CIA on how to climb whatever ladder that they aspire to climb in their life what would you say to them uh well I'll tell you what I do say to them which is my job as a parent is not to raise uh average kids there's enough mediocrity uh out there right my

job is to raise exceptional children and that means they have to not give it 150% I don't know what that is and people talk about that you got to give 110% but you have to work a little bit harder than everyone else right and your gain your result is is that much more it's it's it's it's really shocking you just have to work a little bit harder and you can always do a little bit more than you think you can do right um it's hard to explain that to kids because they think they're bulletproof they

think they've got uh you know 2,000 years ahead of them they they don't understand how time passes but if it's if it's one thing I tell them I mean aside from the basics you know just be honest be loyal uh be kind um it's this idea you just you have have to put in the effort and if you do you can I don't want to say you can do anything you you probably don't have the genetic build of LeBron James right so you're probably not probably not doing what he's doing but that's that's it it's

and and I always felt it's just it's it's a it's a simple thing but if I've learned one thing in in whether it was in the agency or out all you got to do is work a little bit harder what about people advice you give them to you know cuz I spoke to Andre bustan in the podcast and he talks about motivation and manipulation being two sides of the same coin when you think about what stands in the way of your life when you think about the sort of geopolitical issues where we were describing it's

all just people your business at the moment is people my business is people even doing this podcast it's trying to understand people um one of the things I got from you which I think is just really unappreciated is just the remarkable power of just list listening and let letting someone else talk so you can understand them is there anything else you think about if you're trying to create a good sales person um as it relates to people you can't I suppose a psychotic or could but you you can't fake um empathy you can't fake um

real interest right you can't fake um uh enjoyment of people right and and I I do think folks even if they're not trained they're they're they're pretty good at spotting that bad right there pretty good spotting if people are being uh disingenuous so um it's it's really it's really that I mean you have to with with I mean I don't want to dwell too much on business but in that world when I'm talking to my folks um I just know some of them aren't going to enjoy the process of sales if we're talking about sales

they're not going to enjoy going out and doing business development but they do an amazing job on the other as ects of the work right and all that work keeps clients coming back right so it's horses for courses I you know I I think you know people are made up differently and and you can't ask everyone to do the same thing um the only things you can control I keep going back to the same thing with because I keep thinking about my kids now that we talked about them is they can't like the middle boy

you know he plays basketball it's all he wants to do he plays basketball he goes to an academy down in Florida IMG which is an amazing place and it's a sports academy for the most part um and he can't control how tall he is right how how I mean he can work on how fast he is I suppose but you know those sort of things but he can control how hard he works and he can always work harder than the next guy you you think about it I've been in situations before where I thought I

cannot take one more step and then you think well yeah I can take one more step right it's not it's I know again this is not an epiphany but people forget that right people sometimes lose sight in part because they're not pushed or they're not challenged or the circumstances mean that they don't have to be pushed or Challenge and so people get away from understanding exactly what they're capable of accomplishing if they really think about it so that's all I I all I ask for my folks is is you know be honest work hard um

keep the clients happy and you know Bob's your uncle but um you know people right now are going Mike that's it that's your advice Bob's your uncle you said you like you like you think life is much more simple than most people portray and I think hard work is definitely one of those things that um is both controllable and it creates such a disproportionate winning advantage that's exactly right that's a much more elegant way than if you're not I'm to I'm going to steal that but it does yeah but it's it does and and it's

not sexy because who wants [ __ ] hard work people want tricks and TI there's got to be some so what do you do how do you how do you tell if somebody's like no just you know what just yeah unass the sofa work a little bit harder and you're right it's not a popular thing to say um but I think people are capable of it and more so than they realize we have a closing tradition on this podcast where the last guest leaves a question for the next not knowing who they're leaving it for

and the question that's been left for you is what do you think is the most important thing that has happened in your life to create your success wow you obviously have some smart guests on here I'm I'm already jumped to the next point where I'm like ah what's your favorite color um you know what the thing I would have to say um this is going to sound what's it going to sound like I don't know I think I um had I think I had the probably the best parents that you could ask for I had

my dad was an amazing individual amazing individual and they I think more than anything right if I I have to go all the way back look meeting my my wife Emily I mean she's the smartest person I know uh the funniest person I know so but you know I met her you know going on 20 years ago now so what happened before the 20 years and what happened leading through if I you know if I said that then you know the first half of my life I think it was my parents right and no doubt

about it my dad uh was just uh such a uh role model and and just laid a foundation um but I would say then the next half would definitely be uh my wife I think it's that's what does it as the people what was the model that your dad left you part of it was the work ethic my dad worked hard um and he he never complained right he he didn't and he and he loved my mother just they were married for 50 years and that was part of it too is I was fortunate I

was blessed and and I realize it's it's you know a lot of people come from very different circumstances but I came from one of those families where I was there was never in question my father was fiercely loyal uh to my mother and she was fiercely loyal to him and um and and and loyalty um I think plays an important role in in what you're doing I think people people see that as something that they can count on right and that sets you up for Success too I think so I would say that was that

was uh that was probably again the first half of my life I would say that's what that's what paved the way and then uh meeting Emily I completely out kicked my coverage as they say yeah did your dad know how much you appreciated the model of what it is to be a man that you he said you yeah yeah I feel good about um I remember thinking about that when he died I remember thinking that uh I remember thinking that I was very happy that that I had told him sorry that I had told him

what I thought of him right we were very we we were very good with each other in terms of talking about what we felt um and how uh we appre appreciated each other and that's that's a really good thing cuz I don't think you want someone to go and you think well I should have said that I should have said should have said something different um I was lucky you know he uh you know we we had a we had a really good dialogue yeah where does that emotion come from you just you know there

it's it's I think it's that's that's Humanity it's just how you feel right and and your your experiences um you know all my experiences with you know my dad were just solid you know just going out just doing things just getting together just meeting up as as you know when when uh you know I was older and I'd come I'd come back to the States for you know a few days and we get together and and uh you know just like there was there was a a b there that was just really solid and I

feel the same way with I've you know I've got brothers and they're all older than I am um and you know that's that's that's a tight relationship right so yeah I think it's it's good I don't I don't get uh I don't get emotional about much but but family I do um because at the end of the day nobody nobody's going to write on my Tombstone that I worked my ass off right or that I was a I was a real solid you know officer or that you know I sure built a really nice business

it's not going to matter it's you know all I care about is his family and friends if you could write something on his Tombstone what would you write thanks I don't know what else you would say you know just thank you um you know I did write a little little note he was in his uniform when we buried him and uh I wrote a little note and tucked it in his in his uniform pocket um but that's between me and him so but I appreciate you bringing this up it's nice I mean it is nice

to talk I would you know I love talking about the family um but uh yeah that's that's it it's it's not a you know it's probably not the probably not the the most dynamic answer you get from that question I suppose people have more more um more interesting answers but I don't know you know one that would be more meaningful so anyway I think it's a perfectly I think it's a wonderful answer because it says so much about your values and where you've come from and what's driving you and the man that you are and

your priorities because it's so clear how much he meant to you and and it's evident to me how you must be paying that forward as a man to your children as well um in any way that you possibly can and I think if we understand especially for men I think if we understand the role model that our fathers set us we we understand what we think is important and what we think is right yeah because my same with my father my father and my mother didn't get on but one of the things I'll always remember

was even In the Heat of their like conflicts if she needed something mid argument he would do it he never left because of the kids and so there there was clearly a principle in my father where there was something more important than the argument and that is the family the love and the taking care of of your woman yeah so even now when I'm in a relationship if I'm in an argument with my girlfriend or we're disagreeing about something I will always know that there's something more important which is my responsibility to take care of

these people right you and that came from my dad that's exactly right that's that's exactly right yeah you have to know when to bend your spear right and you just I think um yeah I I I think that's if you can if you can pass that sense of of uh whatever it is of loyalty of of appreciation of Duty of um of hard work of honesty if you can pass that along to your kids you know you've done your job that's why I say it's it's and that's what I mean by I'm not here to

raise average kids I don't mean like I've got to raise you know multi-millionaire so I've got to you know that's not what I'm talking about I'm talking about their their character and how they deal with the world Mike thank you thank you for doing what you do it's um as I said before we started recording I'm someone that's quite naive to these issues and uh part of that is because I'm very busy doing my own thing so I I try not to talk about these things that I don't understand but the way that you deliver

the the information through your book through your podcast and even here today and on all the shows that I've seen you on is incredibly important because it's so accessible thank you um and that means that people like me can gain a better understanding of what's happening in the world and then make you know better decisions for my life but what you know who I'm voting for and why I'm voting for them um which are consequential to all of us and that's a very noble noble cause thaning so thank you I know thank you I've enjoyed

the hell out of this conversation I really really have and and uh it's gone by very quickly and I apologize for marking up your map it's all good thank you [Music] Mike I'm going to let you into a little bit of a secret you're probably going to think me and my team are a little bit weird but I can still remember to this day when Jima from my team posted on slack that she Chang the scent in this studio and right after she posted it the entire office clapped in our slack Channel and this might

sound crazy but at the DI ofo this is the type of 1% Improvement we make on our show and that is why the show is the Way It Is by understanding the power of compounding 1% you can absolutely change your outcomes in your life it isn't about drastic Transformations or quick wins it's about the small consistent actions that have a lasting change in your outcomes so so 2 years ago we started the process of creating this beautiful diary and it's truly beautiful inside there's lots of pictures lots of inspiration and motivation as well some interact

developments and the purpose of this diary is to help you identify stay focused on develop consistency with the 1% that will ultimately change your life we're only going to do a limited run of these Diaries so if you want one for yourself or for a friend or for a colleague or for your team then head to the diary.com right now I'll link it below oh [Music] [Music]