Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about Bitcoin dubious speculation if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium add intothe cryptoverse decom let's go ahead and jump in so we have quite a bit to talk about it's been a while since we did our last dubious speculation video in these videos I tend to go through the market you know as in depth as I really can and I I like to take my time and go through the different ways to look at the market so that everyone knows you know the different variables that that could affect things here in the short term now to get everyone up to speed with how Bitcoin arrived at the current level one of the things that we talked about basically for the entire year was that Bitcoin would likely go through a painful bleed that would last about 6 to n months at which point the bull market should theoretically resume now the reason that I said that of course was because of usdt dominance hitting its long-term trend line we'll talk about that in the video too and also gold breaking out which is what also marked the quote unquote midcycle top in 2019 right if you overlay gold gold you'll see a lot of the stuff is playing out in almost the exact same way right you go look at gold uh you identify where it broke out in 2019 that marked a midcycle top and from that time it took Bitcoin about 30 weeks to break out from that midcycle top about 30 weeks or so and we just simply suggested hey what if this time is not different and the Breakout by gold marks another midcycle top for Bitcoin at 73k not a market cycle top but a midcycle top and what if it takes about the same amount of time to break out that would put it at about 30 weeks or so and you can see it basically took around 30 weeks from when the midcycle top was put in so a lot of that stuff has played out in a very similar fashion we said 6 to 9 months 6 months would basically get you to September which is a what happened 9 months was in case uh it it continued beyond that which is always a possibility um to keep in the back of our mind but in the short term right at least that's how we got here right that's how we got here and one of the interesting things that you should be aware of is that Bitcoin has really been very responsive to the labor market this year and if you're wondering why bit coin has kind of hesitated here for the last couple of weeks it's been doing the same thing essentially all year long and what I'm talking about is it gets a move up right it'll it'll find some type of a move up sort of early part of the month to the mid part of the month and then it will stall out until the labor market data is released okay now if you look at a lot of these prior moves by Bitcoin that marked local tops in 2024 you'll find April 2024 you'll find June and then you'll find Late July early August but what you'll notice is that every single time that Bitcoin put in a lower high it was just after or just around the time of the labor market release that occurs at the beginning of the month we also saw something similar over here going into late October or mid October Bitcoin had a push higher and then it paused for a couple of weeks we said that was the most likely outcome and that it would likely wait until early November to make a decision we put out a video called Bitcoin decision time and what I said in that video was that if the labor market data comes in okay then it's likely that Bitcoin continues its w and follows the cyclical View and we'll talk more about that now what actually happened in November if you overlay the unemployment rate what you'll notice is that all of these lower highs by Bitcoin were occurring right they were all occurring while the unemployment rate was starting to accelerate to the upside right if you look at the unemployment rate the lower highs came in once the unemployment rate really started to move up quickly okay this slower move by the unemployment rate Bitcoin didn't really care as much about it was when it started to accelerate . 1% essentially every month that Bitcoin started to pay attention but what I said a month ago and you can go back and watch the video it was called decision time I believe what I said if the unemployment rate comes in at either 4% or 4. 1% meaning it's as long as it's not going up then Bitcoin should follow its cyclical view now the cyclical view of Bitcoin is essentially twofold it's first of all the year-to DAT Roi of Bitcoin in having years right you compare 2024 to 2016 2012 12 and 2020 normally Bitcoin goes up in Q4 of having years right so if Bitcoin was going to follow the cyclical view then it would mean going up in Q4 of the having year and if you average out all prior having years you can see that they really start to pick up in Q4 if you overlay 2024 with it you can see that it's essentially the year-to date Roi of Bitcoin in 2024 nearly matches the average of all prior having years what's more interesting though is that this 2024 year-to dat Roi clo most closely matches 2023 just a slightly diminished version of it uh you can see that for most of the year the return on investment of Bitcoin in 2024 has been slightly lower than what Bitcoin experienced in 2023 except for very early on it it briefly went above it uh but for the most part it's just been slightly below where it was in 2023 now if Bitcoin is to continue to follow the cyclical view then it could get one more push higher before the end of the year if you look at it compared to 2020 though you'll see also it would favor another push higher just like 2012 the Counterpoint is that a lot of people have made comparisons to 2016 in 2024 in fact there are a lot of similarities you have the same president elect right Trump is going to be taking office you have a rally by the dollar you have a rally by the long of the O curve all happening in Q4 this all happened in Q4 2016 as well and at the same time bitcoin's been following typically what it had did in 2016 I guess the one thing to note is that the ROI of Bitcoin in 2024 already matched what it hit in 2016 so that might be sort of a slightly negative point to at least keep in mind showing you that there's obviously no guarantees and in early 2017 Bitcoin actually had a little pushup and then it had a correction we'll talk a little about that in in a little bit as well so that is essentially the cyclical view from a having year perspective if you look at it as measured from the bottom what you'll notice is that Bitcoin kind of got ahead of schedule compared to the last cycle and it needed to get back in line with the prior cycles and the reason we said that was because the cycle before essentially did the same thing right where it eventually it got ahead of schedule we then the year that we saw rate Cuts 2019 Bitcoin faded back in line with the prior cycles and then started to go back up and then of course we got a landing now if you look at that was a recession right that was a pandemic induced recession if you look this cycle it's been a little bit different the sort of the surge occurred a little bit later on because also rate Cuts occurred a little bit later on and you can also see that it's now gotten back in line with prior cycles and it's starting to track those Cycles now you could always get a landing right I mean at any time something like that could happen that it sort of just comes out of left field no one's really expecting it and and it surprises people that's what happened last cycle but you don't have to get that right and I mean it's not necessarily an investing strategy waiting for something like that that's why I said just stay Bitcoin heavy until Bitcoin dominance hit 60% and then start to diversify some into the altcoins because they probably will start to catch up a little bit and as you can see Bitcoin dominance has fallen quite a bit over the last few weeks so that is the cyclical view right that's the cyclical View and and and bitcoin's really continuing to follow that cyclical view so in order for Bitcoin to continue to push higher though into the end of the year and continue to follow the cyclical view then arguably the labor market data needs to come in relatively okay this month okay so I would say if the unemployment rate were to come in at 4% or 4.

1 then it would likely favor Bitcoin to continue to go up into the end of the year one of the things I've also mentioned before is that in 2016 the dollar rallied into the end of the year if you go look at the dollar we've been bullish over here on the dollar uh for basically all of Q4 and I said when the FED cut rates in September that the dollar would likely rally into the end of the year and you can see essentially this is where the FED Cut Rate September 18th right over here the dollar has been rallying and I think it's going to get one final push into the end of the year it's not I mean look guys it's not rocket science right I mean I I could be wrong um but it it it is it's basically what we saw happen in 2016 right where the dollar put in these higher lows and it it then put in another low in early December and then rallied on up into early January now the long end of the yield curve long in the yield curve 10year yield also rallied back then as well right if you look at at 2016 you'll see that the dollar the long of theal curve also rallied so if if the dollar is to Rally into the end of the year it would imply that the long end rallies into the end of the year the do the long end has actually been getting a pullback recently but I wonder if it's just repeating what it did over here where you know it it basically got sort of a a early breakout right and then followed by sort of a pullback below the trend line and then it then moved up again so I wonder if we're going to see the the 10-year yield turn around here so the way I see it is this um the unemployment rate comes in at 4% or 4. 1 then it would favor the cyclical view to continue to Prevail right um it would favor it to continue to prevail and to take precedence and and to not fade the cyclical view as I've said Bitcoin needs a reason to go down not a reason to go up Bitcoin just naturally goes up because people DCA Bitcoin right so it tends to go up for no reason at all if it's going to go down it needs a reason and you know essentially from March until August the unemployment rate gave Bitcoin a reason to go down right because the unemployment rate was accelerating higher but ever since August the unemployment rate was dropping or going sideways and you can see that's where the low occurred for Bitcoin it was in August of 2024 that low occurred and it happened to correspond to when the unemployment rate stopped going up and then we got a lower print so if you're looking for a reason for Bitcoin to drop you essentially would need to see the unemployment rate start to go back up so I think I I think if it's between 4% to 4. 1% then it would likely be a good thing for Bitcoin because if the coast is clear in terms of the labor market then Bitcoin will likely use that opportunity to go higher now you might think well if the if if the labor market data comes in strong and the dollar rallies and the long end rallies wouldn't that be negative for Bitcoin and and theoretically you could have sort of an event like August where you get a a a quick selloff if the long end rallies but the Counterpoint is that in 2016 Q4 the dollar rally the long and rallied and Bitcoin rallied it was altcoins that that that got left behind in December of 2016 not Bitcoin so if if it's 4% to 4.

1% then that would probably be a good thing okay if it's 4. 2% I would argue that it's probably more so neutral right it's not good but it's also not like the worst thing in the world either right I mean it could just be some level of normalization now if it comes in at 42 you could still see Bitcoin go up but then I almost wonder if it would make sense to defer to sort of that 2016 view where it already kind of hit that year-to-date Roi and it's just going to cool off for the rest of the year right if it comes in at 4. 2 there's a chance that happens um but 4.

2 is really not good or bad it's just kind of you know somewhere in between it it wouldn't be enough evidence to suggest that it's truly starting to accelerate again but it's also would sort of leave a question mark as to whether the uptrend by the unemployment rate is actually over um obviously at this point there's not nearly as much wiggle room in the labor market as there were as there was a couple years ago you know if you were to go look at at say job openings um and a number of other things right job openings they've dropped a lot right they're basically back to the pre-pandemic highs and we're about to get this data you know tomorrow I believe um there's just not that that a lot of the excess that was there is no longer there right job quits is has dropped Like a Rock right people aren't leaving their jobs if you look at hires if you look at hires people also aren't really getting hired either right hires are down job openings are down job quits are down um so the labor market has really loosened up recently but you know it's also down initial claims so what that suggests is that layoffs really aren't that high despite what you might read in the headlines right they're they're really not that high but if you look at continued claims you can tell that once people do get laid off they're having a harder time finding a new job because highers are down people aren't really quitting their job so there's fewer job openings and then continue claims you can see have been trading higher meaning that people are having a harder time finding a new job whenever they do get laid off so I would say you know 4 to 41 good 4. 2 it's kind of neutral right I mean maybe Bitcoin would just wait until CPI data um in you know in in a in a week or two before deciding if it's any higher right than this right if it if it comes in at 4. 3 plus I I think that would be sort of construed as bad right I think that would be construed as bad if it if it were to come in at 4.

3% because then it would suggest that this move here was just very shortlived and that it's just going to Simply continue higher so that's how I think it makes sense to view sort of Bitcoin short-term price action now the reason why this stuff is important and the reason why we talk about this stuff is because you know when Bitcoin stalls out like it has been for the last couple of weeks that's usually when the altcoin market takes advantage and the reason for that is because when Bitcoin moves quickly the altcoin market stands still right the altcoin market bows to the king the altcoin market typically would not dare move when the king is moving and so if Bitcoin is stalling out that's normally when the altcoin market start to make its move and that's why when Bitcoin dominance hit 60% which was my target for the last three years I said it was time to diversify into other coins because a lot of them probably have some catching up to do um now that doesn't mean they can't get hit if Bitcoin goes down it just it's important to understand what's going to move the needle for Bitcoin what's going to move the needle for Bitcoin is the labor market right so if the unemployment rate comes in low then what you're likely going to see happen you know maybe about mid December or so is Bitcoin start to move up once again if it comes in high the unemployment rate comes in high then maybe you up getting the landing after all and then people start to then get fearful that there's still a lot more to go with the unemployment rate before it's truly topped out so that's where I I I currently think um you know that's kind of what I think about the market at the current time as it relates to to Bitcoin now there's other things that we can talk about obviously um you know it's not just the unemployment rate it's it's not just you know what's Bitcoin doing here there's other comparisons we can make as well and some of those comparisons I've talked to you guys before about and and one of them is the comparison between Bitcoin and the QQQ launch from 202 years ago right or um you know I guess it was more than 22 years ago it was like 25 years ago if you guys remember the QQQ was launched um in 1999 I'm sure everyone of us remembers that I was 9 years old uh of course I was glued to the charts obviously I was not um but if you look at the QQQ launch you know I I've been following it this year and it's actually been really helpful in in you know sort of Paving out a path for Bitcoin you know it launched at 48 uh or so and and and Bitcoin launched at 40 the ETF for Bitcoin launched when it was 48k and essentially you can see that the QQQ also had sort of a low in August now it was a higher low compared to may but it was still a drop in August and then another drop sort of in mid October so August and then mid October you go look at Bitcoin and you'll find something very very similar right it launched when it when the ETF launched when Bitcoin you know it tagged 48k it had a a drop in August and then it had another drop here in mid October so it it seems somewhat familiar now what ended up happening with the QQQ back then it also o had trouble breaking through the 100 Milestone so for for the QQQ it was 100 for Bitcoin it's 100K but it's all I mean it's just you know it's just to um add some zeros onto the number but you'll see here that the QQQ you know it took it about a month or so to really break through it went up to 96 and then had a drop to 79 or so or back to 80 and then it went up to 97 or almost 98 and then it dropped back to 83 so it did take it some time to get there what's really interesting though is that it did eventually break through and It ultimately went to 120 the reason why 120 is interesting is because if you go back to bitcoin's year-to-date rli and you compare this having year with the average of Prior having years what you'll notice right what you'll notice is that would put the year to dat if it if it is able to track the average of Prior Happ years into the end of the year it would put it at 3x from the yearly open now the yearly open was around 40K right so 3x from the yearly open is 120k which is exactly where the QQQ went one year after it launched right it launched in 19 in March 99 and then it rallied up to at 48 or so and then it rallied up to 120 about a year later in fact it almost lines up perfectly and sometimes it makes me feel like we're living in a simulation because if you look at this it topped 54 weeks later I'm not suggesting that Bitcoin has to find a market cycle top 54 weeks after the ETF launch but you could get a correction at that point um and and one of the reasons for that perhaps it's the people that bought the ETF when it first launch they find themselves up 3x they decide they're in long-term capital gains territory why not take some profits right so that's 54 weeks later what's really fascinating about that is if you look at something very similar for Bitcoin what you'll notice is that 54 weeks after the ETF launch happens to be the week of January 20th why is that interesting well the week of January 20th is inauguration the week of January 20th is when Gary guinsler is resigning you have to wonder you know does every good thing possible get priced in before the inauguration and then once the inauguration actually happens people are like all right now that the Strategic Reserve has been priced in do we actually get it and you know it could be sort of the uh maybe you know some trepidation as to whether it happens or not that causes a potential correction in January what's really interesting is you know Corrections know while it would correspond to a correction one year after the ETF launch um another thing to note with Bitcoin is that it actually does typically get a correction in January of post having years right if you go look at January of 2021 you can see that there was a correction by Bitcoin if you look at January of 2017 there was a correction by Bitcoin now if you measure out those Corrections they were you know somewhat substantial not like that bad but 35% there and then in 2021 about a 32% correction now you could argue that we're here right you could argue that we're here in fact the week of November 23rd last cycle in 2020 also had sort of a small red candle a small candle body with a long Wick down and if you look here you can see almost something very similar a small candle body with a long Wick down I guess the main difference though is the following week Bitcoin basically just went up whereas this week we can already see that there actually has been a bit of a correction so it's not necessarily the same thing but it is interesting to sort of line those things up and to figure out you know to to to see that seasonality on the chart right you go measure that the year Roi you can see that seasonality on on the chart and and argue that you know that's essentially what happened right in in November of 2020 is that Bitcoin hesitated for a few weeks which is exactly what is happening right now right it's hesitating and arguably the reason it is hesitating right now is because it's just simply waiting for the labor market data to come in if you go look at the macro dashboard over on into the cryptoverse premium and you just look at all the things coming up this week you have so much labor market data coming in right you got the employment level job openings job quits uh hires layoffs and discharges all coming in on Tuesday on Wednesday you got manufactur new orders you got non-farm private payroll employment on Thursday you got initial claims and continue claims and then on Friday you have average hourly earnings average hours work per week um on the unemployment level as well as as initial claims per state um continued claims per state the civilian Labor Force Level etc etc etc right so you have a lot of Labor Market data coming in this week which is what Bitcoin tends to look at right where you know it tends to look at that labor market data if it comes in okay then Bitcoin tends to go up if it comes in bad then Bitcoin tends to go down that's the way it historically has worked so what I would say again if the labor market data comes in okay then it would favor Bitcoin to Rally into the end of the year and if it does rally into the year you might actually see Bitcoin dominance go back up that doesn't mean it's going to put in a higher high it could be a lower high but if Bitcoin if the unemployment rate does come in really low and everything comes in low it likely means the long end rallies it means the dollar rallies and if those two rally and we're still risk on then it would likely mean that Bitcoin would would sort of catch a Tailwind from that and Bitcoin dominance could in fact bounce um that's essentially what happened in in 2020 but if on the other hand the labor market data comes in very weak then it would call into question those views on the dollar call into question the views on the long of the deal curve and thus it could call into question you know the the cyclical view of Bitcoin the main things you know I always want to look at at at what are sort of the uh the reasons to be cautious not not as a Reon to not be invested per se as I've said I've just been you know for the longest time I was just Bitcoin only I've only recently Diversified over the last couple of months or so as Bitcoin dominance at 60% I wanted to make sure I sort of captured some of the gains elsewhere in the market from some lagging coins that hadn't really moved um as a lesson you don't have to sit in altcoins for three years during a Bitcoin Dominus rally right you can just stick with Bitcoin until Bitcoin dominance shows signs of topping and then diversify and that way preserve the satosi valuation of your portfolio but it's always a good idea to sort of look around and see you know what what could we be missing like is there any chance that you get a correction before January is there any chance that something like that happens and like anything's possible anything's always possible um you know yes it's possible that you get a landing we did get a landing last cycle the main things that I'm looking at that give me a little bit of pause but as long as the market doesn't go up too quickly that it's not that big of a deal is if you actually look at the extension well if you look at the bull market support band you can see that Bitcoin is fairly extended from it right but if you actually take the natural log of the price over the 20we moving average it has gotten somewhat extended here okay and and the only reason I point this out is if you look at this chart and you look at sort of these lower highs by the extension from the TW the price of Bitcoin from the 20we moving average you can see that whenever it hits this trend line it tends to correspond to a correction in fact the last time we hit this trend line was back in March and Bitcoin got a correction back when no one thought it could get a correction it then got a correction now 2021 would show you late 2020 early 2021 would show you that just because you hit the trend line doesn't mean Bitcoin can't go up right you could hit the trend line get a little bit of a pullback kind of like we're in right now and then go up again and go to a higher price because the extension from the 20we SMA remember you're measuring the extension from something that is changing so as long as the 20we SMA continues to go up then the price would have to stay constant or even if the price stayed constant while the 20we moving average went up then the extension from the 20we moving average would actually drop okay so you have to be careful by taking too many assumptions from tagging the trend line because sometimes you can tag it and and get a correction off of it and then go up again a few weeks later only to then go down right so you do need to be aware of that that is something that I I I've you know I have thought about and I I think what it makes the most sense to do is is just see where the labor market data comes in I mean if it comes in super low like if the unemployment rate is low that's probably a good thing if it's bad if it comes in high it's probably a bad thing and you might actually get a larger correction by Bitcoin before January it's just that normally you do get a correction in January although you could argue that there's a lot of things in seasonality that haven't necessarily played out I would say it maybe plays out about 70% of the time the other thing that is still somewhat similar to March although I do put less and less weight on it is usdt dominance I'll tell you why I I've put um you know or I haven't been focusing on as much as I was back in March so back in March I was noting that usdt dominance was hitting this long-term trend line and therefore it made sense to be cautious and we would likely get a correction and you can see that we did now it's possible that we get a correction again but what you'll notice is that we've arguably broken beneath this trend line which is something I said that would eventually happen right it it has to happen eventually the reason it has to happen is because if you extend this trend line to you know for eternity then eventually the the it would imply the USD dominance if it never breaks down eventually goes above 100% which doesn't make sense so at some point the USD dominance trend line has to break okay right it has to and and you can see that it has I guess you could redraw the trend line to connect these Wicks down here but I mean even then I I I don't think you're drawing it in a way that doesn't look like it's broken down I think you know it's sort of you draw the trend line like this and then you see that it's broken down so what I think you do at this point and I said this is likely going to happen is that you then start looking for horizontal support levels right rather than this the the the trend line you start looking at horizontal support levels and on the weekly you got one right here where the where the usdc dominance currently is you also have one a little bit down at 3. 8% but the reason why this thing is becoming you know I mean I'm not saying it has no relevance it it certainly does but the reason why I haven't been um you know as loud about it in in you know November as I was back in in March was because is because the USD market cap is is absolutely going parabolic right now right I mean if you look at at USD market cap it's basically just going straight up right you see that right how it's just going vertical almost a lot quicker than it was back over here in March so let me let me pull it up on a um let me just pull it up right here so if you look at it I mean it's been you know just at the beginning of November it was at 120 billion now it's at 134 billion so what does that mean right what does that mean well essentially what's happening is that usdt dominance isn't really going that much lower over the last few weeks so why is it not going lower even though total market cap is exploding the reason it's not going much lower it's it's been slowing down is because the usct printer is on right I mean every seems like every single day almost not every day but every few days there's another billion minted okay so if you're going to keep minting a few billion here and there right what's a few billion among friends then it's going to make it hard for usdt dominance to go to go too much further down because if you just keep minting more of it right another billion here another billion there the market cap of usdt of goes up and if the market cap goes up then the dominance goes up so the only way the dominance goes down is if the market cap the entire asset class without usct is going up quicker than USD itself and while that has been the case for the last few weeks you can see that the pace at which it's outpacing USD growth has been slowing down okay so I just want to point this out because if there is a correction whether it be say in December from the current levels or whether it's say in January potentially you know a year at after the ETF launch and maybe at a higher you know it could be at a higher valuation right it could be Bitcoin could be above 100K then you know you could get a very strong move by usct dominance back up to the upside okay so I would keep an eye on this it's been hanging out around Point around 4% just a little less than 4% um if it does break down again below say 3. 8 then I guess you go look at the November 20 21 High and that's a lot lower right that's a lot lower and so I don't really know the best way to uh to sort of look at at at this trend um and I don't know exactly how much lower it could go but it is something to at least keep in mind all right if there is a correction by Bitcoin obviously it would it would bring the altcoin market it would sort of rain in the altcoins all right I would speculate that if there is a correction by Bitcoin we might actually see Bitcoin dominance go back up not necessarily to a higher high but we probably would see it go back up because QE still hasn't started yet right and so I I I wouldn't be that surprised if if dominance went back up if Bitcoin did get a correction or if Bitcoin got a rally above 100K then you would likely see dominance go back up in fact if you look at at Bitcoin USD and you overlay Bitcoin dominance onto the chart one of the things you'll notice is that last year um around the time that Bitcoin broke out right you can see that Bitcoin broke out Bitcoin dominance hit a local top right and here again you can see that Bitcoin you know once it broke out Bitcoin dominance basically hit another local top now back then it it still wasn't the top right I mean you can see that you know just a few a few weeks later maybe a month or two later dominance went up and put in a higher high and it and it ultimately just kept on going up so but but it but dominance didn't really start to move again until after Bitcoin sort of got out of this consolidation area right once while Bitcoin was consolidating dominance was generally going down but then once Bitcoin broke out again dominance started to go back up so 60% dominance was always good enough for me to start diversifying there's always a good chance that Bitcoin dominance has in fact topped um I I said that for a long time that 60% was the Milestone uh and certainly with this drop by dominance recently it sort of gives a lot of you know Credence to that idea and in fact if you look at Bitcoin dominance excluding stable coins I mentioned the two paths are either just down now or break out and then go down I didn't really care which one I was going to diversify either way you can see that it looks like it's just immediately broken down right and now it's back below the wedge now there have been times where it was below the wedge but this is the first time we've really had a weekly close below it and you can see that dominance hit the top of this trend line which was always the target excluding stable coins that obviously you know I mean it always corresponded to 65% and including stable coins it corresponded to 60% and the reason I came up with 60% was just sort of assuming that dominance would basically return to where it it broke down from and that's exactly what it did and the other reason was to say look if you look at the FIB retracement tool last cycle Bitcoin dominance topped out at the 618 FIB what if it just does the same thing this cycle and you can see that it it basically went up to the0 618 FIB now it's it's basically pulled back here to the 0.

5 Fib so let's see what happens here and my guess is you're going to see a reaction by Bitcoin following the labor market release which is all going to be happening this week so to sort of summarize if I can if it's if it's good labor market data and it sort of takes away concerns about the labor market and it it sort of distills any any fears that people might have then it's more likely to see Bitcoin continue to show strength if the unemployment rate comes in higher than expected then or let's say it comes in at at 4. 2 that's maybe considered somewhat neutral um I could see it going either way honestly I mean I I don't really have a if it's 42 I don't really have a strong opinion right if it's four to 41 that's good if it's 42 it's not really good or bad it's just kind of neutral if it's 43 or higher I would argue that's bad you know you don't want to see it go up 210 right you don't want to see it go up 210 if it goes up 210 then you're basically back to where we were over here all right and if that happens then you could see a rejection off of say that 3 to 3. 8 to 4% usdt dominance so you could see a rejection off that level and then we sort of regroup and then we try again later on um so those are my general views on on where the market is right now that's sort of the uh the dubious speculation for the video um I don't think I had anything else to mention um that was I think that was essentially it for for this video I don't really think there's any other um um things to to go over let me just double check before I before I sign off here yeah I think that's I think that was mostly what I wanted to cover obviously there's a lot of other charts that we could go through but in the interest of time why don't we just go ahead and and end the video there so hopefully that gives you something to work with right bitcoin's likely in a holding pattern until we start to get that labor market release data which is going to start Tuesday through Friday okay Bitcoin will then look to see at that to see where that data is and then make its decision on on the next move I've tried to outline I mean it's a lot of just if then statements no one can predict the future no one has a crystal ball it's all about having a plan no matter what happens and that's the way I think you navigate the cryptoverse I just use the risk levels rather than try to predict exactly what moves going to happen I give you the dubious speculation just for fun right it's not an investing strategy it's more so just for fun um but remember I just stick to the risk levels and I don't even try to over complicated beyond that but if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and again check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the crypto.