What will happen in 2025? - The Global Story podcast, BBC World Service

Hello, I'm Azadeh Moshiri from the BBC World Service. This is a special edition of The Global story and our 2025 correspondents look ahead. Now, if 2024 was the year of elections, about half of the world's population went to the polls this year.

2025 will be the year the winners will try to deliver on their promises. Among them, of course, is Donald Trump, the incoming US president and he's vowed to shake things up both at home and abroad. Now the world is also entering 2025 with wars in the Middle East, Ukraine and Sudan showing no signs of ending.

So could 2025 be the year where we see breakthroughs? And of course, there's the fight against climate change. Will next year be the year where greenhouse gas emissions peak?

We will have the BBC's top correspondents give us their predictions on what could happen in the next 12 months. Now let's start with the United States because a lot of what will happen in 2025 will be determined by Donald Trump. As he re-enters The White House.

He's promised a huge overhaul of government. He'll have two major wars to deal with and a potential trade war should he carry out his tariff threats. So let's speak to our senior BBC North America correspondent, Anthony Zurcher.

Hello. Great to be here. So, Anthony, Donald Trump has made some interesting choices when it comes to his cabinet.

What can you glean in terms of what priorities will be for Donald Trump in 2025? Well, I think what you saw from some of his earliest picks was that his focus is going to be on what he campaigned on, and that is restricting immigration, undocumented migration into this country and addressing trade deficits and using tariffs and trade in order to give the United States an economic advantage. People like Stephen Miller were named to The White House, very much anti-immigration, anti undocumented migration, outspoken advocate within the Trump circle, Tom Homan, who was also one of the ones who spearheaded the family separation policy, where undocumented families that came across the border during the first Trump administration, the parents were separated from their children.

He is now in a key immigration role. On economics, some of the top picks such as Scott Bessent for Treasury secretary. He's more of a traditionalist, but down below, people like Peter Navarro very much an advocate of using tariffs to generate revenue to to protect American industries.

So, I think you're going to see that be a priority for this administration. And so when it comes to foreign policy, in his victory speech, he said, 'I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars.

' And of course, the U. S. has been Ukraine's biggest backer since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.

So I wonder what you think Donald Trump wants when it comes to Ukraine and Russia, and perhaps what his plan might be? Well, he's always had a more sympathetic attitude towards Vladimir Putin and and Russia in general. And that dates back to before his first term in office.

He's said kind things about Vladimir Putin, offered praise on him. He seems to have, he touts the fact that he has a good relationship with the Russian leader. So I think coming into this, there's going to be more skepticism on Trump's part and the people around him towards long term support of Ukraine and the Ukrainian war effort against Russia.

You know, he campaigned on ending the war on day one even before he took office. Now, everyone said that that was unrealistic, but I think it shows where Donald Trump's priorities are, that he's more focused on ending the hostilities, even if it's on terms that are not great for Ukraine, rather than the Biden administration policy, which was to give Ukraine as much military support and allow them to fight for as long as they could, because the American position up until now was that Ukraine would be the ones that set the terms of the end of the war, and Ukraine wanted to maintain its territorial integrity. That could change the reality of shifting, obviously, if American support is curtailed, which it looks like it might be, because not only is Donald Trump skeptical of continued American support for Ukraine, but the Republicans in Congress who control both chambers of Congress are much more skeptical as well.

So, you know, the ground beneath the feet in this conflict is changing. And I think that is going to force Ukraine and the Ukrainian leaders and Vladimir Zelensky to take a look at at finding a way to extricate themselves from this war on the least bad terms possible. But it is a different sort of negotiating framework that I think we had up until now.

Now of course, Russia has a lot to deal with, both domestically and abroad. Our BBC Russia editor, Steve Rosenberg, sent me his thoughts on what Vladimir Putin's priorities will be in 2025. Hello from Moscow.

Well, there's been a lot of talk about what Russia and Vladimir Putin should expect from a second Trump presidency. I think this time around, they're keeping their expectations a little bit lower. I remember in 2016, Russia had very high hopes that Donald Trump coming into The White House was going to overnight transform US Russian relations.

They thought that Trump was the man who was going to be friends with Russia and, you know, do everything to help Moscow. I remember how one pro-Kremlin party leader in parliament ordered over 130 bottles of champagne to celebrate Trump's victory in 2016. But you know, the bubbly went flat quite quickly because relations actually got worse under Donald Trump.

That's when you saw more sanctions being introduced. So it didn't quite go right according to plan. This is what the Russians are hoping that Trump mark two will be a more pro-Moscow president, that they're going to see someone who is wanting to mend relations with Moscow.

And if you listen to what members of Donald Trump's team have been saying, people like Donald Trump Jr and JD Vance, they've been publicly critical of President Zelensky, of Ukraine. So I think that's why the Russians are hoping that a President Trump mark two will actually be good for Russia. Then, in terms of any resolution to the war in Ukraine, I think that Vladimir Putin was sitting where I am now, he would tell you, 'Of course I want a deal.

Of course I want peace. ' But if you look into the details of the kind of deal he would like. I think it would look like the capitulation of Ukraine.

I mean, the Russians have already said that they want to keep what they call the new regions of Russia, basically parts of Ukraine they have seized and occupied. So, in other words, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, and not just the areas they're occupying, but the parts of those regions that are still under Ukrainian control. They've also said that Ukraine mustn't join Nato.

It should be a neutral country. It should give up hopes of joining NATO. And they're demanding that Western sanctions be removed against Russia.

Put all that together, that would look like total victory, I think, for Russia and the capitulation of Ukraine. So that's the view from Moscow. And we could talk for hours, Anthony, about what Donald Trump will and won't do.

But one thing, Donald Trump has talked a lot about are tariffs both on the campaign trail and afterwards. I wonder whether you think that he would follow through with some of those threats. Yeah, that's the big question.

You know, on the campaign trail, Donald Trump talked about what a beautiful word 'tariffs' are and how that they could be used not just as a tool to achieve policy ends, but as a new kind of reality for how countries in the United States deals with not just adversaries and competitors like China, but even allies like Canada and Mexico and Europe. He talked about the revenues, all the revenues that could be generated by tariffs, that could then be used to fund programs here in the United States, whether it's child care programs or support for farmers or any of the tax cuts that he's talking about over the course of the the campaign. It'll be interesting to see whether he follows through with that because that would be a fundamental reshaping of the current international economic order.

When you listen to Donald Trump, he says he's going to put new tariffs in. So that is going to be the big question that we're going to get answered pretty early on in Donald Trump's presidency. Is it something that was all kind of campaign bluster, campaign talk and more in theory rather than in practice?

Or is this going to be something that Donald Trump tries to put into place from from day one? Well, it's impossible to talk about China at least without bringing in the BBC's China correspondent, Laura Bicker, who is in Beijing for us. Hi, Laura.

Hello. How are you doing? Good.

Well, I want to get your reaction to something that Anthony just said. He used the words campaign bluster. I wonder whether politicians in China see some of the threats he's been making about tariffs as campaign bluster, or whether they're taking them seriously.

Oh, they're bracing themselves here in China. They've experienced the first trade war. They've learned from that.

And they're getting ready for a second if it comes. Yep. The big question is, as Anthony has just said, is this a threat?

Is this a way of getting China to perhaps play more fairly, or is this a real campaign, a threat that's going to be carried out on day one? We just don't know. But so far, China has been incredibly bullish.

They have bristled at the mention of tariffs. There have been many speeches by the Foreign Ministry and others talking about win-win cooperation and how a trade war would hurt both countries. So the warning is there, but there will be real fear.

Look, when you speak to people on the streets, whether it's businesses, whether it's people in the park, the one thing that they are worried about is the economy, because domestically, the economy is not doing well here in China. You've got house prices that are incredibly low, you've got high unemployment rates amongst teenagers and low 20s people coming out of university. There are many, many issues that they're trying to grapple with.

So there is a real worry that tariffs might hit the economy. So they do not want another trade war. But it comes back to what I just said they learnt from the first time around.

So what they did was they diversified. China has extended its arms across the world. It has made friends with Brazil.

It's just recently repaired its relationship with India. Australia. It is outreach, making an outreach towards Southeast Asia.

It is also really kind of establishing its ties with Korea, with Japan. It is determined to kind of diversify its relationships. Take soybeans, for instance.

This is something that America used to be the number one supplier for here in China. It no longer is. They go to Brazil, they go to Argentina, they go elsewhere.

So what China is saying is 'look you hit us with tariffs, we will find other ways to do business' and that's exactly what they've done. In fact, Donald Trump has a nickname here in China. It's called Chuan Jianguo.

What it means is 'Trump, the Chinese nation builder. ' And the reason they've called him that is because first time round, they believe that he helped the Chinese nation find ways to diversify, to make more high tech products and to find other markets for them. So that's how they see that here.

And Xi Jinping in 2017 did host Donald Trump for a state visit. That was pretty much the peak of their relationship during that period. I wonder what you think Xi Jinping actually wants from his relationship with Donald Trump, or what he would want it to be like?

It was a massive kind of state banquet. Donald Trump was allowed into, you know, the Forbidden City. In fact, I can't remember the last time we've seen a leader allowed into the Forbidden City.

It was a massive event here. And I think when you come, you look at that and you see the high point, and then it really went downhill when it came to Covid and he called it the Chinese virus. He blamed China for covering it up.

And since then, the relationship between the United States, even under President Biden, has really not been great. In fact, it hit another low. Remember the spy balloon that flew over North America?

And then not long after Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan? I spoke to the US ambassador just earlier this year, and he said at that time there was very, very little communication between the two sides. He said it was really difficult to get a conversation with any Chinese official.

Now, since then, its ties have stabilized. So Donald Trump is inheriting a better relationship with China than perhaps they've had since 2019. What they do with that?

Well, there is an opportunity, and I know that President Xi will have been watching the election campaign very closely. He might have been listening to Donald Trump and his admiration for President Xi as an opportunity there, perhaps, for President Xi to say, 'look, let's try to stabilize ties. Let's try this win-win cooperation that they keep talking about.

' But who knows how it will go, especially if there is a trade war. Because I mentioned bristling, I think China will certainly bristle and will retaliate if Donald Trump does start another trade war, and that will be the key. And we'll know that day one.

I want to bring in Anthony, because I wonder what you think in terms of how high China sits in Donald Trump's inbox of priorities. You know, Donald Trump has given mixed signals on China as Laura mentioned, on one hand, he's been very critical of what he thinks is a raw deal that the United States is getting from China and particularly blames Joe Biden for walking back some of the things that he did during his presidential administration. He went out and actually invited President Xi to come to his inauguration, which was a break with protocol.

Usually, foreign leaders aren't invited to presidential inaugurations. Xi respectfully, I understand, declined that invitation. But it does show that Donald Trump, wants to try to extend an olive branch to President Xi.

That he seems to feel like he has a decent relation with him. On the other hand, Donald Trump is filling his administration, his foreign policy team with China hardliners. Marco Rubio, the senator from Florida, has been nominated to be US secretary of state.

He has been sharply critical of China over the past number of years. Michael Waltz, he's a congressman from Florida. He has been picked to be Donald Trump's national security advisor.

Michael Waltz was one of the first members of Congress to call for the United States to boycott the Winter Olympic Games in Beijing several years ago. He is viewed also as very much a Chinese hardliner. And there's a strain within the Republican Party, within the conservative movement that looks at China not just as a commercial and economic rival, but as kind of the central focus of political evil in this world.

I was at a conservative conference in 2022, right after Russia invaded Ukraine and I think a lot of people at that conference didn't want to talk about Russia, didn't view Russia as a destabilizing global influence despite that recent invasion. Everyone there had on their script and had their speeches ready to condemn communist China and the corrupting influence of communist China on the world, that the Chinese were buying up property in the United States, buying up agricultural land, buying up businesses, and that they somehow had this nefarious plot to damage the United States from within. So I think you're seeing people like that within this Trump administration, you're seeing people like that in Congress and throughout the conservative movement that now runs the United States and controls all the various levers of power in the United States.

So even if Donald Trump may have in his view, a good working relationship with the Chinese leaders and President Xi, I think there is going to be pressures pulling the Trump administration towards a more confrontational approach with China. Anthony, Laura, thank you so much, both of you, for your time and your predictions. My pleasure.

Thank you. Lovely to speak to you both. We've just talked about how Donald Trump is planning to shake things up, both at home in the United States and abroad.

So let's turn our attention now to Europe, because two of the continent's biggest economies, France and Germany, are entering 2025, in political turmoil. So how does that turmoil end? Does it even end?

Let's speak to our Europe editor, Katya Adler. Hello. Katya now we referred to some of that before.

But what are we talking about here when we're talking about Germany and France going through some political turmoil? Basically what you're looking at in these countries is lack of stable government. So in France, there was a snap parliamentary election held in the summer called by President Emmanuel Macron.

These elections didn't go as he'd hoped, and his party actually lost support in parliament. And you effectively got a hung parliament divided between the far right, the far left, more or less, and a centrist grouping. And it just sort of stayed stuck.

So you got one prime minister who just about survived barely three months. Now you have another prime minister. And, you know, the general word on the streets in France is he's not going to last the winter.

This is a problem. This is a problem in France. It's the second largest economy in the eurozone currency.

And it's part of the so-called motor of Europe, along with the biggest economy in the eurozone and that is Germany. Germany's government collapsed just when Donald Trump was re-elected to the White House. There was a three-party coalition that dissolved and you have snap elections called now for February.

Now, you could just say this is political turmoil. We've seen a lot of this. It's not as if these countries are kind of crumbling as we speak.

There's no sort of mass demonstrations on the street. You have caretaker governments when actual governments collapse. So what's the big deal?

Partly it's a very big deal because, as I say, these two countries are seen as the motor of Europe, the heart of Europe. And we live in very unstable geopolitical times. And so when you have these two, the biggest countries, very much inward looking because of their own domestic problems, that gives a sense that the EU is rudderless.

It's kind of lacking leadership when it really, really needs it. And looking on from the outside, you have countries like Russia and China who want to see the EU and Europe more widely and generally, the west, more divided, fractured and weakened. Also to that point, when you're talking about the kind of influence Europe can have, especially given France and Germany, as you say, are two dominant forces in Europe, what does this all mean when it comes to Donald Trump's relationship with Europe?

Well, turmoil in Europe doesn't directly affect what Donald Trump is going to think. He's no fan of the European Union. He's made that much clear.

He looks at Europe in two ways. It makes him really cross. Number one: defence spending.

Donald Trump and he's not alone amongst US presidents, by the way, who feel that Europe for far too long has kind of been freeloading off the United States, frankly, within the Nato military defence alliance. Not spending enough themselves on defence and just relying on the United States to have that that military muscle. On the practical point, we can see that in Ukraine.

There are 50 countries that have been donating aid to Ukraine, military and otherwise. When we look at the military aid, the US is by far and away the biggest donor of aid. More than 50% is by the United States.

And he says, 'guys, this is not fair. This is a war that's going on in Europe. You can't expect us to do this.

' The other point that makes him very mad, if we want to use an American term, is when it comes to trade. He does not like trade deficits. If you have a look at the EU, also the UK actually, the US is the biggest trade partner.

And when it comes to the EU there is a trade deficit. So the EU exports more to the United States than it imports from the United States. When Donald Trump was in the White House before, he was furious about that and made all sorts of threats and imposed tariffs on certain sectors, like the steel sector, for example.

This time, he says, he wants to impose blanket tariffs. Twenty percent on all imports, possibly more when it comes to electronic vehicles or something like that. That has Germany's economy, which is already shaky and weak, really worried because it relies very much on its automobile industry.

And so you see kind of a panic in Europe at the moment. What can we do to show Donald Trump that he is a winner? Well, when it comes to defence, if you have a look at the new secretary general of Nato, who is the former Dutch prime minister, so he knows the European position well, he's trying to already say to Donald Trump, even before he enters The White House, he went to see him in Florida at his Mar-a-Lago, estate and said to him, 'well, look, because you told us to spend more on defence, we are spending more on defence.

And by the way, Donald Trump, if you're thinking about America first, don't think that Ukraine is just about the continent of Europe, because behind Russia and helping Russia in Ukraine, you have China, you have North Korea, you have Iran. And America does not want those countries to all feel victorious. So it's in your interest to help bolster Ukraine.

' When it comes to trade, what Europe is trying to say to Donald Trump is 'we'll buy a lot more of your LNG or liquefied natural gas. We'll be buying more military equipment from you as well as we boost our defence spending. So don't give up on us.

' And of course, Europe is also looking for Trump whisperers, people who can talk to Donald Trump and be a bridge between Europe and the United States. But they definitely won't be coming from France and Germany right now. So you're describing a lot of panic, but also a lot of high stakes there.

Katya Adler, BBC's Europe editor. Thank you so much for that. You're welcome.

Now let's turn to the Middle East, because in 2024, we witnessed Israel's war in Gaza, triggered by the attacks by Hamas on October the 7th in 2023. And we also saw that war open up on a new front with Lebanon and also saw Israel and Iran trade direct fire. So let's speak to the BBC's Chief International correspondent, Lyse Doucet, who's joining us from Damascus in Syria.

Hi Lyse. Good to speak with you Azadeh. Good to speak with you from Damascus.

As we're speaking, there are rumours of a potential deal that would see an exchange of Israeli hostages, any surviving hostages in Gaza in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners and a ceasefire. Lyse, from your point of view, what are the chances of that deal being agreed? The deal is 90% done, but we have heard that for many months now.

And as they always say, it's the last mile, which is always the most difficult because that is, they are dealing with the most difficult of questions. It is clear that despite the language, all too familiar language, they are closer than ever before. And that is partly because president elect Donald Trump has given an ultimatum.

He wants it done. That has sent a clear message both to Israel and to Hamas, and also because the war has ground on. The devil is in the details, and I think it will definitely see in 2025 that seems to be a certainty which will at long last, bring the remaining hostages home.

To end the agony of families. And at least it brings closure to the families who desperately want to know if their loved ones are dead or alive. And it ends this unprecedented suffering for the Palestinians of Gaza and the wider, wider anxiety across the region, as well as the insecurity caused by this war of all wars.

Well, so you've said a deal seems certain. 2024 we've seen Israel's war in Gaza, of course, but we've also seen the front with Lebanon, and we've seen Israel exchange direct fire with Iran. And we've also now recently seen their own attacks in Syria.

Lyse, from your point of view do you think that militarily this is sustainable in 2025? Well, Israel has made it absolutely clear that it will act in its own self-interest. Whether that means it was in 2024 the ground invasion, the attacks right in the heart of Beirut.

It means attacking the Houthis of Yemen. Wherever they're attacking Israeli targets from. It means coming into Syria.

Even as Syria is celebrating the end of a half century and more of the Assad's family repressive rule, the very sensitive time as well. Israel has carried out hundreds of missile strikes and has encroached on Syrian territory and occupied the buffer zone, despite calls from the United Nations and other countries to pull back. So 2024 was a year in which every red line was crossed, and Israel has made its own red line, that it is not going to allow any threats on its sovereignty.

This is a very emboldened Israel and a very assertive, aggressive Israel putting Israel first. A moment that took the world somewhat by surprise was the fall of the Assad dynasty. There where you are in Syria.

How do you envision that situation unfolding? What are the stakes for Syria in 2025? It's quite extraordinary.

They're still celebrating as we speak. It's more than a week on. And yet the happiness is still palpable.

And they are watching with every day, every step, every word of their new caretaker administration. It's still not clear where the de facto ruler, who now calls himself not by his nom de guerre, his name of war, Abu Mohammed Al Jolani. He calls himself Ahmed al-Sharaa.

He's in civilian clothing, not military fatigues. He talks about recognizing the diversity of Syria, the need to protect minorities. But as this year ends, he has a caretaker administration, which is only comprised of members of his Islamic group, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and he has not moved to broaden it.

And so not only will it be Syrians watching closely, neighbours will be watching closely. Countries like the United States, which will have to play a major role if the terrorist designation is to be lifted from Ahmed al-Sharaa himself and from high Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. They want that that is the main demand for sanctions to be lifted.

This is a country that needs everything, and they can't have everything unless what is regarded as the most complicated and extensive network of sanctions anywhere in the world, until that starts to be disentangled, Syrians will not see the prosperity. Even the basic food needs. The huge economic crisis here, with 90% of Syrians under the poverty line.

So there's a lot of questions as the year ends and a lot of uncertainty. Events in the Middle East can change week to week. So surely 2025 will have a lot in store.

Lyse Doucet, thank you so much for your time and your analysis. Thank you, Azadeh. Happy New year!

Now let's turn to Africa. In 2024 the ANC lost overall control in South Africa after 30 years in power. We also saw the war in Sudan fuelled by the civil war continue.

So with me to discuss everything that could happen in 2025 is the BBC's Africa Daily podcast host, Alan Kasujja. Thank you. Thank you for having me.

So thanks for joining us. So let's start with South Africa. We mentioned the ANC there.

And we also saw in May a government of national unity formed in South Africa. So how do you think that that is holding up. And what do you see in store for the government in 2025?

So let's just go back to the May elections. We all expected, a lot of people watching South Africa knew that the ANC was struggling, okay. They were struggling on many fronts.

They'd lost a lot of key seats, and people were expecting that they'd struggle to make it past the required minimum in order to form the government. What we didn't expect, though was a 40% result. Forty percent of the election result.

And that was a bit of a shocker for a lot of people. So the ANC's hand was obviously forced and it had to get into bed, if you will, with a party that had been going up against it for most of the last 30 years. And that is the Democratic Alliance.

How are they doing so far? A lot of people who I have spoken to from South Africa are pleasantly surprised that it's a successful union of sorts. It's working at the moment.

Teething problems, challenges with policy, especially in areas like education. Should Afrikaans continue to be a language of instruction? The DA thinks it should.

The ANC is opposed to that, but on many things that the DA would have normally been on the other side, it's aligned itself with the ANC. So they seem to be collaborating effectively in many respects. And Sudan often gets talked about as a forgotten war.

But it's impossible to talk about the continent without talking about the humanitarian crisis that continues to unfold there. There have been talks of of potential breakthroughs or peace talks in other major conflicts in the world, But do you see anything happening in Sudan that that could break that cycle? It's horrible what's going on in Sudan.

There's no other way of describing it. We've just heard that 11 million people have been displaced. A lot of the refugees have found themselves in Egypt, many of them in Egypt.

A lot of them are internally displaced. Many of them have ended up in Uganda where I come from. There are certain neighborhoods of Kampala where, you know, you just find Sudanese people settle there.

A lot of them have gone into Kenya as well. It's a crisis. It's a problem that has displaced a lot of Sudanese people.

And there were talks in August, some people didn't show up for those talks. The contradictions continue and we expect that these contradictions will continue into next year. Some analysts think that the next year is going to be even more difficult.

So it's a tough place for Sudan. The humanitarian crisis will continue. There's been a bit of opening up at the moment with trucks allowed to deliver food in certain places.

Airports are back in some parts of the country, the northern part of the country, the airport is open and it's allowing the flow of humanitarian support. But by and large, until the war stops, it's going to continue producing a lot of problems for that country. Now ending on some somewhat good news when it comes to sub-Saharan Africa.

It's one of the areas that's the most affected by HIV and Aids in the region. But we've had some promising results when it comes to a new drug, when it comes to the prevention of transmission of Aids and also treating HIV. What would that mean for the region if it comes to fruition?

It's going to be a game changer. I have been affected by HIV because I know family members who have died from it. Every single person that I know in Uganda where I come from, has been impacted.

Everybody I know knows someone who has died from HIV. And so for us, this is a deeply personal thing. I come from a time when people thought that HIV was a death sentence.

One of the only people I've ever met called Alan Kasujja was a little child who I held in my arms, maybe four months old, and at a time when there was no solution for HIV, and this child had picked up Aids from the mother, and it was obvious that they didn't have much time left. So for us, this is an existential thing. It's important that we get a solution to the HIV situation, the HIV Aids situation.

So when you hear that there is a drug that is going to be taken twice a year, as opposed to tablets being taken daily, that is a game changer. It's still quite expensive at the moment. I think it's $40,000 per person per year.

$40,000 is way beyond what many Africans can afford. But we are hoping that the call by the United Nations, especially UNAids, for the generics to be made available, is going to help make the medicine more accessible. Right.

And so people are going to be paying very close attention to what happens with that drug, Lenacapavir. Alan, thank you so much for your time. Thank you.

As if by magic, Justin Rowlatt, the BBC's climate editor, is here in the studio with me because we're turning to climate change. Hiya. So the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that's the climate science body, has said that greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025.

That's to keep global temperatures from rising above the 1. 5 to two degree limits that were agreed in the Paris Agreement. That was back in 2015.

Now, Justin, the key question, will we meet that target? No, because it's almost the end of 2024 and we have not reached peak emissions. That said, the International Energy Agency, which is a kind of global watchdog on energy, an expert body, say there is a chance that we will peak in 2025.

So we're a year off. And to be honest, in climate change we almost always miss our targets. So coming within a year is actually not that bad.

And I think we should also see that the fact of peaking emissions, it's a civilizational moment. You know, our entire economy has been based on fossil fuels. The emissions trajectory has been up relentlessly, literally since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

If we peak and begin to reduce emissions. That is an amazing achievement of society. How does China fit into this?

How important are they when it comes to reaching a lot of these targets? Because they do also, they are also responsible for a lot of green energy as well. China's got a huge industry producing the equipment for green energy.

It's also got by far the largest installed capacity of wind and solar. It produces more batteries than anyone else, more electric cars. It really is the world leader on green energy, but it is still a huge producer of emissions.

The biggest producer in the world. Passed America back in about 2006. It's about 35%.

So a third of all world emissions come from China. China still building coal plants. So the question is, will that huge investment in renewable energy begin to bend the curve downwards?

And again, it looks quite likely. I mean there's an online publication called Carbon Brief. It's dug in.

Analysed the statistics. It believes this could be the year, China's government isn't boasting about this, but this could be the year that China also begins to peak. And then and that would be very consequential for the world economy because of that huge investment in renewables, we could see not a super rapid, but we could see quite a rapid decline in China's emissions.

And that would obviously, because it's the biggest emitter in the world by a huge margin, would have consequences for global emissions. So really good news if that happens. And 2025, a lot of big climate change related events.

Let me tick them off for you here, Justin. You've got the UN Initiative Climate Promise, the Global Climate Summit being held in Oxford in the UK, and Cop30 in Brazil. Of course, you know all of this, but is there any sense that these events will bring about any meaningful change?

This is a really important year for the UN, the intergovernmental process on climate change. So this year, under the Paris Agreement, every five years, countries agreed that they'd come back and set their own targets for carbon emissions. This is the deadline year.

So by February, all the countries of the world need to produce their nationally determined commitments. Those are the commitments they make to cutting carbon. That's really important because that will determine the trajectory of those countries, will help determine the trajectory of those countries for the next five, ten years.

Hopefully we'll get a sense of how ambitious countries are being. That happens in February. They're to be delivered to that big UN conference, the Cop conference, Cop 30, which will happen in Belém in Brazil in November, and they deliver them there.

And hopefully, you know, we'll see the world rallying round and making ambitious carbon cuts. Justin Rowlatt, our climate editor. Thank you so much for your predictions.

My pleasure. And thanks so much for watching. If you want more episodes of The Global story, you can find them wherever you get your podcasts.

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