The Raging Phase

hello followers of the four-year Journey Bob Lucas back again here at November 20th 2024 with another installment of the 4year cycle journey I hope you're well it's been the shortest Gap or duration since the last video only last month I think on the 10th and that's of course because we're now in the Raging Bull phase of the fouryear cycle no doubt zero doubt whatsoever this is pretty much what we've been waiting for this Final Phase or the third year of the four-year cycle typically the most bullish and where historically the majority of bitcoin's gains over

its in Period since Inception have come in the third year of the fouryear cycle so today I'm going to talk about this Raging Bull phase that we're in talk about the model portfolio and how important it's going to be to stay the course in the Final Phase because again as I mentioned it is the year or the period in which all the gains are made and it's going to be important to stay that course and be in the right mindset I'll also talk of course where we stand in the cycle where we could be looking

for Tops in the future in the near future and try and address any concerns that you have about a possible early top here in this fouryear cycle so let's get into it again thank you for being here I'm coming to you from Station 3 in New York City and here it is so the model portfolio can always be found on bitcoin dolive on the 4-year Journey Tab and then scroll down to the spreadsheet which of course very very rarely ever changes because there's only been seven trades or transactions since 2018 that's the idea it's essentially

a smart version of hodle where we're trying to take advantage of the trough and the peaks in the 4year cycle of course we're not trying to time the absolute bottoms or trying to time the absolute tops where trying to avoid the majority of the draw down in the cycle and then we're trying to buy in as close as possible to the bottom of the next cycle and I believe these Cycles will continue to repeat over time and I don't think this ex this cycle will be any exception or the next no targets are set and

I'll get into that in the video coming no profit targets for the moment we have to let this bull cycle ride but essentially this just covers the uh the purchases of the past any Targets that come up in the future will be listed here the interesting thing is that this hudle strategy uh has obviously done fairly well to say the least and I believe at something like a $35,000 or $4,000 give or take investment back at the beginning of the 2018 cycle would now be worth over a million and uh I think that's uh that's

pretty good considering the low stress uh idea behind this model portfolio model idea I'm pretty much going to cover the next two concepts this Raging Bull phase and where we stand in the cycle in uh in the same analysis here looking at the weekly chart first the most important thing that we're seeing on the weekly time frame and there are weekly Cycles here we've complet a weekly cycle back in September and we have now broken of course again to all-time highs once more after a 7mon period of consolidation interestingly though in the prior 4-year cycles

and pretty much since the Inception Bitcoin has experienced extreme volatility on the way up and on the way and on the way back down this time in this cycle we have yet to see a draw down of more than 30% for an asset with such volatility that is pretty imp impressive to say the least and I think it just speaks to the amount of demand that there is for Bitcoin anytime Bitcoin begins to dip and it's 10 15 20% off a high or at 15 20% draw down the buyers have stepped in significantly to push

this back up it hasn't had or given the opportunity to drop and that again speaks to the amount of spot demand that there is for Bitcoin uh what you see here with these green and red arrows is simply the 60-day cycles that are intertwined within the weekly cycles and of course weekly Cycles are then intertwined with the 4-year cycle but what we see here is the 60-day Cycles were forming lower highs and lower lows all the way down into a significant weekly cycle low in September that Weekly cycle low completed a new weekly cycle began

and we had a 60-day cycle that came up to break a above all the highs of the prior 60-day cycle and that signaled a change in Trend and a period of leaving behind the consolidation and continuing the bull market move to all-time high 60-day cycle low in November with a trump Victory and now we have new price Discovery as Bitcoin leaves behind this period of consolidation begins what is now the third year of the cycle we had the 4-year cycle low the bare Market low on November 10th of 2022 and now we're in November of

2024 so we've just completed the 2year anniversary the end of the bare market and now we're beginning year three of this 4-year cycle from a 4-year cycle structure perspective what is interesting to note is that on the 24mon anniversary or the 2-year anniversary of the 4year cycle it is a period where Bitcoin beginning that year three of the cycle is now heading or is through all-time highs and is in that bull phase of the cycle the most speculative portion of the cycle and the portion of the cycle where the majority of the gains are made

if you look at the cycle from 2015 and you go 24 months out that's when it just touched or tested the all-time high level by month 26 27 it had then gone on to again that Raging Bull phase of the cycle this time around we hit that actually much sooner 16-month period right here when we made the all-time high and this is a big part of a reason why we've had this bullish consolidation develop we hit that alltime high level very early in the cycle and now we've kind of reset rebuilt and built what I

believe is a substantial Foundation from upon which this bull market could then go into that third and speculative and bull phase of the 4year cycle now there there really isn't much to complicate about this structure and these Cycles they are essentially as clean as they come and they are mirroring prior Cycles almost perfectly it is human nature to question and to be afraid when things map out so well and I hear a lot on social media well everybody believes this it must be wrong it can't possibly unfold in this way and I've got to tell

you that most of the time it does Cycles mirror themselves and they rhyme really well and it is really foolish to go against that behavior and that cycle structure more than anything else of course there's always and I say this in every video there's always an alternative view a bearish view um a Black Swan kind of view but those typically don't come to pass what generally comes to pass is the the the expectation that these Cycles will mirror themselves and this cycle here again is really cleanly mirroring what it's done in Prior Cycles but what

is different this time around is we don't have this retail Mania whatsoever this is an Institutional fomo event that is really getting going and on top of that we just can't ignore the fact that um something I never would have dreamed of at this point first of all two years ago I thought there was no chance in hell that we would have an ETF but here we have an ETF and we saw the ETF rally early and that's how we got to that 16mon high alltime High sooner in the 4year cycle and a good part

or good reason why we never really saw that 30% draw down in the cycle to date but again we now have a United States presidency that not only just says yeah you know we will support crypto or Bitcoin or blockchain any word you want to use that they're open and actively promoting not just supporting or endorsing they're promoting we have a United States President that's released a series of nft collections that is looking at launching their own token on top of this they have a cabinet full of Bitcoin holders and supporters all the way down

through into the Senate and the Congress now we have a government here in the US that is only going to put in laws and regulations that are supportive and promote this space forward and that's that just really I mean you can't say enough of how bullish that is for Bitcoin and again you're seeing this here you're feeling it in the market it's allowing institutions to now take a stance and it creates the fomo because they know that if they don't get in they're going to underperform and also from a regulatory standpoint it gives them the

green light to make a decision to enter the space to commit to the space and uh and not be afraid of backlash or being caught in some type of regulatory action it removes all of that regulatory overhead and friction and this is why I believe you're seeing significant and I'm talking billions and billions of dollars in inflows into this space not driven by leverage like it was with the FTX tobacco and all the other Shady players that drove the last cycle this is a spot driven move the the most bullish types of markets that you

can see and it is a race to acquire Bitcoin before it gets away from everybody and that is just um again it just I just can't be uh any more bullish than that on this cycle this cycle feels even more bullish than the prior Cycles all of a sudden um with the way it's behaving the way it's acting but again just the fact that uh there isn't anybody left on traditional Financial media that's coming on board and speaking negatively calling this a Ponzi calling this whatever it might be now there's a lot of people that

are still sidelined but now Bitcoin has reached this level of Acceptance in the marketplace as as if as as it's it's being a serious asset class an asset class that can't be ignored anymore and that is what sets the foundation for institutions to begin taking and and gobbling up and buying and and holding this asset on their balance sheet so now that we've established that we're in the third year the most bullish year the manor year of the cycle that it is structurally very similar to all the prior four-year Cycles we've established the institutional fomo

uh probably Sovereign wealth fomo that's going to be coming or it's probably already here possibly a Bitcoin strategic Reserve here in the US um all the narratives and not only just narratives all the fundamentals are in play for Bitcoin to really Pierce through the $100,000 level and not look back um I think it's already doing that right here it's not going to look back after this seven-month consolidation I think we're in this blowoff phase already and yes I do think we'll start to see some significant vol ility occur as we run up into the peak

of the 4year cycle but um I think you want to be careful uh not reading too much into that at the moment and let this cycle unfold we're just again beginning this breakout after the consolidation just beginning the third year and if this mirrors prior Cycles a 35 Monon peak in the 4year cycle is not until around November of 2025 so we're still looking at a full year before uh this cycle would Peak if it mirrors prior Cycles now of course everything is not going to rhyme perfectly this peak could come sooner it could come

even later than this we just don't know that's the thing with Cycles right we're trying to find an edge we're trying to find or identify an area or a period where the cycle could be peing but all I can say at this point is that we're still very early in this m phase this initial 2year or actually 18-month move to the high was the first phase of this 4year cycle this 7-month consolidation acted as a sentiment resetting period and now we've hit the midpoint or the the midpoint of the four-year cycle the 2-year low right

there and this is the second half of the 4-year cycle that's now again in the very early phase of moving higher I think at some point and it's probably not going to be until uh the Trump Administration is inaugurated in late January I think we'll probably see a period maybe a month or two of a significant draw down a ShakeOut at some point not until sentiment gets a little frothy here over the next few months that will act as a shake out clear out all the the really significant leverage it'll probably build up by that

point and then go off into a Final Phase up to a high now I know a lot of people want targets they want price targets and I got to tell you I don't think and I'm pretty sure nobody knows where the the high will be for this cycle and you know there's a diminishing kind of return idea that each cycle high is not adding anywhere near as much as the prior cycle so if you look at prior cycles for example from the breakout or from the last High to the next high then you're looking at

a number kind of in a low 100s for a peak in this cycle but you know that also can work the other way and I think we could be looking at now that we have Administration behind this we have broad institutional appeal broad acceptance that Bitcoin is a legitimate asset class that also opens up the idea finally and I dare to say a super cycle where we go off into a Mania blowoff that sort of mirrors a 2017 blowoff that was very much retail driven but this one includes everybody right sovereigns institutions eventually old retail

and it blows off into a pretty sub substantial number again I don't want to throw out a number because it's pretty much pointless we're going to have to just ride this week by week month by month as it continues to move up towards a peak there will obviously be many many signs of a Mania we we don't have any of those we have very few of those signs today but your typical sentiment type um indicators on who's promoting it what type of celebrities promoting it is it on the Super Bowl ads uh what are the

YouTube views like and all those other metrics that we can look to see of how speculative this is we're not there yet we're still early and in fact it's really only kind of the crypto Bros or Community that's really excited at the moment and even they aren't overly excited considering that we're at that sort of 94,000 level here today uh and broke uh and we're at in the 50s just a couple of months ago so it's still fairly well contained in my opinion once we break through the 100,000 I think you'll start to see traditional

media cover this a lot more and then the F the real fmer I think begins at that point but from a Target standpoint uh I don't really have one and if you look at the model portfolio in the the last cycle I had set this early $28,000 Target remembering that the prior fouryear cycle high was I think 192 or 195 I had set a small sell an automatic sell at 28,000 and I'll show you that on the monthly right here um so going back here's the high in 17 I set that Target I think fairly

early in the cycle for 28,000 right here because I had in the back of my mind this somewhat of a small concern that hey that 2017 cycle was a real Mania cycle and that this could be heading up to a slight higher high a big distribution sort of candle or event and then roll back down so I wanted to be able to cash out and cover the initial investment on on on a hit of 28,000 level um and then protect sort of the position or the portfolio from any significant downside I'm not doing it this

time around because I feel far far stronger this time around that we are going to see an Institutional or Sovereign type fomo Maine event that's going to send Bitcoin much higher than where we are today so yes obviously I'm very bullish on where this stands today this cycle to me feels far far stronger than the prior cycle uh that we had and therefore I don't want to set early takeprofit Targets on this I want to see how it unfolds now uh the one thing I will say from a bearish from a red flag perspective is

that now that we've hit this second year anniversary and entering the third year we have the Trump presidency in place we have the institutional play that this period this per this area of consolidation really should not be retested this breakout level could be retested so this sort of 74,000 70 let's call it 70,000 level where the 10-month moving average sits today that certainly could be retested and not be bearish for the 4year cycle but anything closing monthly now below the 10-month moving average I think becomes a significant red flag and something I'd want to watch

out for I don't think we're going to get that I think again we may see some short-term volatility a significant shake out at some point but a sustained month closing below that level below 70 now is the only time I begin to say hang on what's going on here this is really not how it should be playing out given the fundamentals of this market so I want to tell you now that it's going to be extremely important to stay the course right this whole portfolio model portfolio on the 4year cycle is designed to capture the

third-year expansion and price Discovery if you're looking at your portfolio up significantly since the last fouryear cycle low and of course it's going to depend on when you're going in whether it's the prior cycle back in 2018 at a $3,000 level or 16 177,000 here or wherever it might be you're going to be up everybody that's invested in Bitcoin that hasn't levered that hasn't pleed other alt coins that have gone down significantly is up right now right because we're hitting an all-time high everybody is in profit but most people that have been following this portfolio

strategy or this strategy in general should be up significantly and I know it's difficult sometimes to look at a portfolio that's up substantially and not have that urge to want to sell so you can realize that profit and that's a natural feeling or thought to have but I got to tell you that the real money in a portfolio and the strategies made in the holding of the trend and writing that trend for as long as possible now we're not going to be able to capture the absolute Peak well we hopefully can if it's something like

2017 I think we're going to come close to being able to capture the majority of the move that 17 Peak at least uh for me was something that was fairly obvious and something that I had tweeted about about exiting if we can get an extension like this a move up I think we'll have a pretty good chance of capturing the majority of that uh this 2021 22 or 21 cycle was a lot more difficult of course but the point is here that from a huddle perspective you want to be holding and you want to put

in strategies to be in position to capture the majority of those gains I know there's going to be this tendency to look for Faster Horses in the market look for other alt coins or now that are more fashionable meme coins for example but I urge you to if you want to do that if you want to fulfill that need to speculate or to play the game that others are playing then make sure that what you do is you just allocate a small position of your overall portfolio you create a separate entirely separate account out and

go for it Go and speculate and I think you'll realize that you're going to significantly underperform some of you may c c capture a winner a big one and get really lucky but I use the word luck because that's what it is it's pure uh sort of casino type speculation where very few win and the very few that win win big and that's why it creates a lot of noise on social media but the majority of folks lose I also want to say something like um uh micro strategy which doing really really well and uh

no hate at all towards what's going on over there I think it's driving bitcoin price higher and and and getting more adoption but uh you also want to be careful on how you allocate to instruments like that that are trading significantly above their net asset value for example I think the best way is to hold your keys own your Bitcoin and sit in position and understand again that the whole strategy is making fewer and fewer decision points fewer fewer trades and resist the urge when Bitcoin is extended for any period of time to play the

game of hey this looks like it's overbought in the short term looking at things like RSI indicators which um are something that can really fool people into believing that the Market's about to drop um resist the urge to sell a position just because you think it's going to drop by 10 or 15% in the short term and the idea that you can buy it 15% lower it very rarely ever works in the bull market most times uh you sell it goes up another 10% then it eventually drops and only comes back to where you had

sold you don't pull the trigger it goes back up again before you know it you're buying back 10 15 or 20% higher and all you've done is you've now increased your average cost of your Bitcoin and then you've reduced the uh overall gain that you end up making out of the cycle it's going to be very important to stay focused to not get too greedy to not think about what you're going to do with all this Bitcoin all this Fiat once you sell it and just focus on executing for the remainder of the cycle I

think that's the most important thing I can say is that it's not about picking other Assets in the space to ride it's more about staying out of your own way it's going to be your own decision making that's going to determine how successful you are over the remainder of this cycle so I'm going to close this video now it's only been 25 minutes or so because I've said pretty much what there is to say the cycle is mirroring prior Cycles we now have the foundation here after the 2year low the consolidation back to the 10-month

moving average we now have a presidency in place is so bullish for for Bitcoin as a whole we have institutions just can't get enough of this asset and I think we're going to have kind of a minia where every participant in in this space is going to be a part of this and I think it's going to drive Bitcoin up to a pretty substantial number and again we'll have to wait and see what that number might look like but I think it really could surprise to the upside in this cycle and we want to be

there to capture as much of that as possible so stay focused here over the uh the period I will not have another video out this year so with that I want to wish you all a happy holidays a Merry Christmas uh in general and a great New Year's and I will have another video out I think in the very early New Year until then all the best to you all thank you for listening and take care